Debt was a becoming significant issues for many economies pre-covid19. The post covid19 may see even more challenges including the restructuring of debt.
In the past, there have been concerns about debt, especially if interest rates were to rise. Interest rates are still an issue. The bigger issue is cash flow with govt, business, and personal. Sales and wages could see significant shrinkage as part of the COVID19 recovery.
GDP is key measurement for a country. Allot is said about GDP, especially by various government. The reality is government gets to much credit for booming economy and too much fault for recession.
There are many factors drive GDP including taxation, business returns, consumer spending and government spending. 2/3 of economies tend to be driven by consumer spending. If you set policies that takes more money out people’s pocket book then that will lead to less consumer spending.
Many people are confused how money flows from your wallet to social programs. Each level of government has different taxation programs that hit your wallet different ways
It is important to understand there is only one taxpayers and that is you
You cannot tax people to prosperity
Canada does a very good job of wealth distribution
Too many governments do not look at value for money when it comes to delivering program spending.
All politicians will promise the world, but in fact can deliver very little due fiscal restraints
In the past, there have been concerns about debt, especially if interest rates were to rise. Interest rates are still an issue. The bigger issue is cash flow with govt, business, and personal. Sales and wages could see significant shrinkage as part of the COVID19 recovery.
GDP is key measurement for a country. Allot is said about GDP, especially by various government. The reality is government gets to much credit for booming economy and too much fault for recession.
There are many factors drive GDP including taxation, business returns, consumer spending and government spending. 2/3 of economies tend to be driven by consumer spending. If you set policies that takes more money out people’s pocket book then that will lead to less consumer spending.
Many people are confused how money flows from your wallet to social programs. Each level of government has different taxation programs that hit your wallet different ways
It is important to understand there is only one taxpayers and that is you
You cannot tax people to prosperity
Canada does a very good job of wealth distribution
Too many governments do not look at value for money when it comes to delivering program spending.
All politicians will promise the world, but in fact can deliver very little due fiscal restraints
Justin Trudeau made many promises back in 2015 including being open, transparent, and accountable. This presentation looks at many areas of policy. The readers of this report can make their own decisions on whether Trudeau has been open, transparent, and accountable to Canadians.
1. Trade protectionism - https://torontosun.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-bidens-buy-american-policies-hurting-canada
2. Climate Change - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/environment-commissioner-report-failure-to-failure-1.6262523
3. Benefits - https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/some-cerb-recipients-set-to-get-notices-that-they-owe-feds-some-of-the-aid?r
4. Wage growth - https://financialpost.com/news/economy/immigrant-influx-is-stunting-wage-growth-in-canadian-recovery
5. GDP - https://economics.td.com/ca-weekly-bottom-line
6. Housing - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/it-s-like-gamestop-mortgage-expert-on-risk-of-housing-correction-1.1687056
7. Canada lags many states in oil and gas development - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/canada-us-energy-sector-competitiveness-survey-2021
8. Streaming = https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/media-experts-agree-action-needed-110000640.html
9. Skills gaps - https://financialpost.com/sponsored/business-sponsored/building-the-future-of-continuing-education
10. Deficit - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-report-says-federal-deficit-stood-at-686b-halfway-through-fiscal-year/ or https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/federal-deficit-hits-nearly-69b-over-first-half-of-fiscal-year/
Blog – Failure of Trudeaunomics – October 2021
Inflation went from 1% in 2015 to 1.9% in 2019 and now is 4.7% in Oct/21
Public sector jobs continue to outpace the private sector jobs
GDP went from 3.0% in 2017 to 1.6% 2019 (pre-Covid)
Housing prices continue to rise
Welcome to @justinTrudeau ‘s Canada
CPPIB is independent board that evaluates all investment to ensure pensions funds achieve a specific return. There is nothing stopping govt from talking to CPPIB which the Liberals have done in the past with various pension funds to encourage investments.
People need to review all aspects of the various parties platform including looking at the annual report for government.
There is allot of information that is missing from statements made by various parties. Elections tend to allow parties to mislead the facts.
Many different groups will write paper and/or articles on government from their perspective. It is important for readers to review all sources when it comes to debating various government policies
Justin Trudeau constantly calls out the Harper era like he did in 2015. The problem is Trudeau never discuss details as the details tell a different picture.
The federal government ran a deficit of nearly $69 billion over the first half its fiscal year, almost $130 billion less than the treasury pumped out during the same stretch one year earlier.
The Finance Department’s fiscal monitor says the budgetary deficit between April and September was $68.6 billion, down from the $198.1 billion recorded over the same months in 2020 when Covid-19 first struck.
Source - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/federal-deficit-hits-nearly-69b-over-first-half-of-fiscal-year/
1. Deficit / Canada - https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/canada-records-c6857-bln-budget-deficit-over-first-six-months-202122-2021-11-26/
2. BOC / qualitative easing - https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/11/financial-stability-through-the-pandemic-and-beyond/
3. Inflation - https://financialpost.com/opinion/philip-cross-government-is-driving-inflation
4. Household debt - https://www.consolidatedcreditcanada.ca/financial-news/household-debt/
5. https://twitter.com/EvanLSolomon/status/1464071997286232100 Hey Evan - Sep/19 also seen higher inflation compared to Oct/15 but there was no comment from you back in Sep/19, why? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-cost-of-living-canada-june-2019 There was also no comment how GDP growth went from 3.0% (2017) to 1.6% (2019), right? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-growth-and-the-major-issues-facing-global-gdp
6. Interest rates - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-27/bank-of-canada-accelerates-potential-timing-of-rate-hikes
7. Housing - https://theconversation.com/want-to-solve-the-housing-crisis-address-super-charged-demand-169809
8. Consumer spending - https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/rbc-consumer-spending-tracker/
9. Infrastructure bank - https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/projects/2021/11/cib-hits-its-stride-with-20-projects-in-its-portfolio
10. https://globalnews.ca/news/8404028/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-bc-flood-zone/ Is @JustinTrudeau taking his surfboard? Many of us already know it will be lots of word salad and little said about all levels of government failing to safeguard assets! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisis-and-emergency-management-risk-management-how-best-to-manage-risk
Cost of Living (Inflation)| The United States| October 2021paul young cpa, cga
Bottom Line: Inflation is spreading to more items as supply can't keep up with sturdy underlying demand that's stoked by stimulative policies, forcing more companies to pass along rising costs. A combination of low base-year effects, supply-side disruptions, delivery bottlenecks, labour shortages, elevated energy and food costs, and rising residential rents could keep the CPI rate above 6% through the turn of the year, while the core rate will likely take a run at 5%. Chair Powell expects inflation to begin to retreat by the second or third quarter of next year as supply constraints abate and reopening-demand pressures fade. But it will be a long and anxious waiting period (assuming he's still Chair). And, should wage growth rise further or inflation expectations resume an upward drift, the Fed might not be able to wait that long before pulling the tightening trigger.
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/86bbbd1a-eb53-42cd-902c-a804528f193e/
1. Food costs - https://ktvz.com/money/cnn-business-consumer/2021/11/05/world-food-prices-are-up-30-in-a-year/
2. OPEC tells Biden to pump the oil himself - https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2021/11/09/opec-says-to-biden-if-you-want-more-oil-pump-it-yourself/?sh=11d02fb93efd OPEC told Biden (11/9/2021) to pump more USA oil https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/oil-and-gas-energy-sector-analysis-and-commentary-october-2021-revised
3. Supply chain - https://edtechmagazine.com/higher/k12/article/2021/11/4-ways-avoid-supply-chain-delays-2022
4. Low income - https://ktvz.com/news/2021/11/10/higher-gas-prices-and-heating-costs-will-hurt-low-income-families-the-most-this-winter/
5. Carbon tax - https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/rising-gas-prices-show-why-a-carbon-tax-is-a-bad-idea
6. Housing - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/home-prices-are-now-rising-much-faster-than-incomes-studies-show.html
7. Commodity prices - https://blackbullmarkets.com/en/market-reviews/are-commodity-prices-going-up/
8. Interest rates - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/federal-reserve-james-bullard-expects-two-rate-hikes-next-year.html
9. Green employment - https://www.aei.org/articles/will-green-energy-produce-more-jobs-three-experts-discuss/
10. Job market - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/switching-jobs-can-lead-to-higher-pay-heres-what-to-know.html
11. China - https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/10/economy/china-cpi-ppi-inflation-intl-hnk/index.html
This offers leaders whose businesses have shut down as a result of the lock-down some intelligence and projections of how the wider business scene and global economy may develop. #LeadershipPreparedness
Economies go through changes over fiscal and business cycle. The role of government is to create policies that support economic growth along with fiscal management cycle that delivers program with consideration of both tax fairness and value for moneys
2019 Election| Global Debt| Personal, Corporate and Government Debt| July 2019paul young cpa, cga
This presentation is one perspective on Debt. It is not the only view. People are more than welcome to visit other sites like BEA, Stats Canada, OECD, Banks, etc.
Government debt rating is important as the lower the rating the higher premium is for government bonds. Higher premium means higher interest rates.
Justin Trudeau made many promises back in 2015 including being open, transparent, and accountable. This presentation looks at many areas of policy. The readers of this report can make their own decisions on whether Trudeau has been open, transparent, and accountable to Canadians.
1. Trade protectionism - https://torontosun.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-bidens-buy-american-policies-hurting-canada
2. Climate Change - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/environment-commissioner-report-failure-to-failure-1.6262523
3. Benefits - https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/some-cerb-recipients-set-to-get-notices-that-they-owe-feds-some-of-the-aid?r
4. Wage growth - https://financialpost.com/news/economy/immigrant-influx-is-stunting-wage-growth-in-canadian-recovery
5. GDP - https://economics.td.com/ca-weekly-bottom-line
6. Housing - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/it-s-like-gamestop-mortgage-expert-on-risk-of-housing-correction-1.1687056
7. Canada lags many states in oil and gas development - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/canada-us-energy-sector-competitiveness-survey-2021
8. Streaming = https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/media-experts-agree-action-needed-110000640.html
9. Skills gaps - https://financialpost.com/sponsored/business-sponsored/building-the-future-of-continuing-education
10. Deficit - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-report-says-federal-deficit-stood-at-686b-halfway-through-fiscal-year/ or https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/federal-deficit-hits-nearly-69b-over-first-half-of-fiscal-year/
Blog – Failure of Trudeaunomics – October 2021
Inflation went from 1% in 2015 to 1.9% in 2019 and now is 4.7% in Oct/21
Public sector jobs continue to outpace the private sector jobs
GDP went from 3.0% in 2017 to 1.6% 2019 (pre-Covid)
Housing prices continue to rise
Welcome to @justinTrudeau ‘s Canada
CPPIB is independent board that evaluates all investment to ensure pensions funds achieve a specific return. There is nothing stopping govt from talking to CPPIB which the Liberals have done in the past with various pension funds to encourage investments.
People need to review all aspects of the various parties platform including looking at the annual report for government.
There is allot of information that is missing from statements made by various parties. Elections tend to allow parties to mislead the facts.
Many different groups will write paper and/or articles on government from their perspective. It is important for readers to review all sources when it comes to debating various government policies
Justin Trudeau constantly calls out the Harper era like he did in 2015. The problem is Trudeau never discuss details as the details tell a different picture.
The federal government ran a deficit of nearly $69 billion over the first half its fiscal year, almost $130 billion less than the treasury pumped out during the same stretch one year earlier.
The Finance Department’s fiscal monitor says the budgetary deficit between April and September was $68.6 billion, down from the $198.1 billion recorded over the same months in 2020 when Covid-19 first struck.
Source - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/federal-deficit-hits-nearly-69b-over-first-half-of-fiscal-year/
1. Deficit / Canada - https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/canada-records-c6857-bln-budget-deficit-over-first-six-months-202122-2021-11-26/
2. BOC / qualitative easing - https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/11/financial-stability-through-the-pandemic-and-beyond/
3. Inflation - https://financialpost.com/opinion/philip-cross-government-is-driving-inflation
4. Household debt - https://www.consolidatedcreditcanada.ca/financial-news/household-debt/
5. https://twitter.com/EvanLSolomon/status/1464071997286232100 Hey Evan - Sep/19 also seen higher inflation compared to Oct/15 but there was no comment from you back in Sep/19, why? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-cost-of-living-canada-june-2019 There was also no comment how GDP growth went from 3.0% (2017) to 1.6% (2019), right? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-growth-and-the-major-issues-facing-global-gdp
6. Interest rates - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-27/bank-of-canada-accelerates-potential-timing-of-rate-hikes
7. Housing - https://theconversation.com/want-to-solve-the-housing-crisis-address-super-charged-demand-169809
8. Consumer spending - https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/rbc-consumer-spending-tracker/
9. Infrastructure bank - https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/projects/2021/11/cib-hits-its-stride-with-20-projects-in-its-portfolio
10. https://globalnews.ca/news/8404028/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-bc-flood-zone/ Is @JustinTrudeau taking his surfboard? Many of us already know it will be lots of word salad and little said about all levels of government failing to safeguard assets! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisis-and-emergency-management-risk-management-how-best-to-manage-risk
Cost of Living (Inflation)| The United States| October 2021paul young cpa, cga
Bottom Line: Inflation is spreading to more items as supply can't keep up with sturdy underlying demand that's stoked by stimulative policies, forcing more companies to pass along rising costs. A combination of low base-year effects, supply-side disruptions, delivery bottlenecks, labour shortages, elevated energy and food costs, and rising residential rents could keep the CPI rate above 6% through the turn of the year, while the core rate will likely take a run at 5%. Chair Powell expects inflation to begin to retreat by the second or third quarter of next year as supply constraints abate and reopening-demand pressures fade. But it will be a long and anxious waiting period (assuming he's still Chair). And, should wage growth rise further or inflation expectations resume an upward drift, the Fed might not be able to wait that long before pulling the tightening trigger.
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/86bbbd1a-eb53-42cd-902c-a804528f193e/
1. Food costs - https://ktvz.com/money/cnn-business-consumer/2021/11/05/world-food-prices-are-up-30-in-a-year/
2. OPEC tells Biden to pump the oil himself - https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2021/11/09/opec-says-to-biden-if-you-want-more-oil-pump-it-yourself/?sh=11d02fb93efd OPEC told Biden (11/9/2021) to pump more USA oil https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/oil-and-gas-energy-sector-analysis-and-commentary-october-2021-revised
3. Supply chain - https://edtechmagazine.com/higher/k12/article/2021/11/4-ways-avoid-supply-chain-delays-2022
4. Low income - https://ktvz.com/news/2021/11/10/higher-gas-prices-and-heating-costs-will-hurt-low-income-families-the-most-this-winter/
5. Carbon tax - https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/rising-gas-prices-show-why-a-carbon-tax-is-a-bad-idea
6. Housing - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/home-prices-are-now-rising-much-faster-than-incomes-studies-show.html
7. Commodity prices - https://blackbullmarkets.com/en/market-reviews/are-commodity-prices-going-up/
8. Interest rates - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/federal-reserve-james-bullard-expects-two-rate-hikes-next-year.html
9. Green employment - https://www.aei.org/articles/will-green-energy-produce-more-jobs-three-experts-discuss/
10. Job market - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/switching-jobs-can-lead-to-higher-pay-heres-what-to-know.html
11. China - https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/10/economy/china-cpi-ppi-inflation-intl-hnk/index.html
This offers leaders whose businesses have shut down as a result of the lock-down some intelligence and projections of how the wider business scene and global economy may develop. #LeadershipPreparedness
Economies go through changes over fiscal and business cycle. The role of government is to create policies that support economic growth along with fiscal management cycle that delivers program with consideration of both tax fairness and value for moneys
2019 Election| Global Debt| Personal, Corporate and Government Debt| July 2019paul young cpa, cga
This presentation is one perspective on Debt. It is not the only view. People are more than welcome to visit other sites like BEA, Stats Canada, OECD, Banks, etc.
Government debt rating is important as the lower the rating the higher premium is for government bonds. Higher premium means higher interest rates.
Global debt continues to rise. There is threat that interest rates may hike due to issues with high inflation.
1. Household debt - https://financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-canadas-debt-binge-is-not-good-for-the-economys-future-or-the-loonie
2. Household debt - https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211020008600320
3. Mortgage - https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2021/10/mortgage-debt-growing-at-fastest-pace-in-a-decade-cmhc/
4. In arrears - https://cba.ca/mortgages-in-arrears
5. Global debt - https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/global-debt-jumps-to-new-high-of-226-trillion-says-imf-report-121101301387_1.html
6. Piling on debt - https://globalnews.ca/news/8274309/canadian-debt-quality-of-life-covid-19-bdo-survey/
7. Evergrande - https://www.ft.com/content/b8effeb7-e553-4bb1-8ece-a610fcbcdbb2
8. Stablecoins - https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/stablecoin-tether-crypto-usdc-diem-risky-debt-market-fitch-regulation-2021-10
9. Foreign debtors and Canada - https://www.advisor.ca/investments/market-insights/foreign-investors-snap-up-canadian-debt-statscan/
10. China and debt - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-lies-beneath-hidden-debt-fears-feed-chinas-property-woes-2021-10-20/
11. USA corporate debt - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/credit-investors-worldwide-are-piling-into-u-s-corporate-debt?utm_medium=cpc_search&utm_campaign=NB_ACQ_DSAXX_DSATESTTCPAXX_EVG_XXXX_XXX_COALL_EN_EN_X_BLOM_GO_SE_XXX_XXXXXXXXXX&gclid=CjwKCAjwn8SLBhAyEiwAHNTJbVyg1ZvAr9RAcNTHgq36_v0BA4ZUtQXDU7W950B_5blUi8VsmAzaSRoCjOcQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds
12. Yields - https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-market-is-right-to-be-spooked-by-rising-bond-yields-11633142803
This presentation is one perspective on Debt. It is not the only view. People are more than welcome to visit other sites like BEA, Stats Canada, OECD, Banks, etc.
Bank of Canada hikes interest rates to combat High Inflation and High cost of...paul young cpa, cga
Summary:
High inflation is here to stay for awhile due to failed agendas of government.
Mitigating climate change is very important. The mitigation should be done through better policy including how to best support cheap energy costs. The focus should also be on policies and programs that support the green and circular economy.
Canada has lost it ways when it comes to encouraging innovation within the private and public sector. Trudeau policies have been a failure!
Liberals around the world should revisiting their so-called carbon pricing schemes. There is a better approach to protecting the environment while growing the economy in a sustainable way. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-the-public-and-private-sector-can-better-supoort-the-circular-and-green-economies
Housing costs continue to rise! https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/interest-rate-hike-won-t-cool-housing-say-experts-1.5802515
1. Interest rates - https://wowa.ca/bank-of-canada-interest-rate
2. First interest hike since 2018 - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-hikes-rates-for-first-time-since-2018-1.1731177
3. Inflation - https://globalnews.ca/news/8654004/canada-interest-rate-hike-march-2022/
4. Inflation - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/boc-will-have-to-kill-the-economy-to-crush-inflation-rosenberg-1.1731579
5. UBI - https://www.ubiworks.ca/howtopay
6. Green inflation - https://www.advisor.ca/investments/market-insights/green-energy-low-supply-to-drive-copper-prices/
7. Inflation - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-02/biden-state-of-union-proposals-would-do-little-to-curb-inflation
8. Energy - https://www.tester.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=8934
9. Oil - https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2022/3/2/mayhem-reigns-in-oil-markets-as-traders-avoid-russ/
10. LNG - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/threat-to-europe-gas-supply-bolsters-push-on-new-u-s-lng-plants-1.1731478
11. Food security - https://www.newsweek.com/war-ukraine-global-food-security-crisis-opinion-1683791
12. Housing affordability - https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-housing-affordability-hits-the-worst-level-since-the-last-bubble-nbf/
13. Commodities - https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities
There was a budgetary deficit of $3.7 billion in October 2021, compared to a deficit of $18.5 billion in October 2020. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses and gains was $5.4 billion, compared to a deficit of $17.2 billion in the same period of 2020–21. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses and gains is intended to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government's financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses and gains arising from the revaluation of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans
Source - https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/10.html
1. Fiscal update - https://rabble.ca/politics/canadian-politics/feds-fiscal-update-is-all-about-covid-but-does-too-little-to-address-root-cause/
2. Housing - https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-forecast-to-rise-while-incomes-fall-fitch-ratings/
3. Fitch - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/international-public-finance/canadian-provinces-rebound-in-2022-debt-bears-watching-13-12-2021
4. Food costs - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/international-public-finance/canadian-provinces-rebound-in-2022-debt-bears-watching-13-12-2021
5. Income and food costs - https://globalnews.ca/video/8458094/most-canadians-dont-believe-their-income-will-keep-up-with-rising-food-prices/amp/
6. 2B trees - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-trees-planting-climate-1.6288938
7. Critical metals - https://www.sudbury.com/beyond-local/mining-the-future-canadas-high-hopes-to-become-a-global-critical-mineral-powerhouse-4870557
8. China - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-china-is-buying-up-the-critical-green-revolution-minerals-sector-in/
9. LNG - https://thenarwhal.ca/bc-last-lng-project/
10. Oil Production - https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-canada-set-to-smash-oil-production-record-in-2022-and-thats-a-little-bearish-for-oil
11. Manufacturing - https://www.conferenceboard.ca/insights/featured/canadian-economics/manufacturing-sales-show-signs-of-life
Fiscal support / Economy
The IMF said that fiscal policy should stay in place to support vulnerable households and firms until recovery takes hold and even then, many low-income countries will need additional assistance through grants, concessional financing, longer suspensions of debt service and in some cases, debt restructurings.
It also called for fiscal policy to "enable a green, digital and inclusive transformation." This includes investments in health systems, job training and hiring subsidies, promoting greater tax fairness, and cutting wasteful spending.
https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/business/reuters/imf-says-fiscal-support-needed-until-recovery-takes-hold-546056/
Canada - Fiscal Management - Deficit and Debt - May 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Public Sector – What is next for Canada – June 2022
The federal public services have expanded by over 50K job and yet there are backlogs with passports, immigration, and other areas of government
Federal government deficits pre-covid nineteen did little to address productivity, innovation, skills gaps, and affordable housing.
Canada per capita GDP trails other countries like Qatar https://georank.org/economy/canada/qatar and Australia https://georank.org/economy/australia/canada
Canada continues to struggle with high inflation - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chrystia-freeland-inflation-1.6501750
Fiscal Management| Cycle| Analysis and Commentary| Canadapaul young cpa, cga
Military procurement - https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/RP-2021-040-C--cost-canada-surface-combatants-2021-update-options-analysis--cout-navires-combat-canadiens-mise-jour-2021-analyse-options or https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/frigate-fleet-cost-1.5926000
Failures on many procurement and policies like clean water for first nations – new audit reports - https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/mr_lp_e_1455.html
There is still no fiscal anchor - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-economy-idUSKBN2AG2AV
Summary:
There was a budgetary deficit of $3.9 billion in July 2022, compared to a deficit of $10.9 billion in July 2021. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses was $3.0 billion, compared to a deficit of $9.6 billion in the same period of 2021-22. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses is intended to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government’s financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses arising from the revaluation of the government’s pension and other employee future benefit plans.
As expected, the government’s 2022-23 financial results continue to improve compared to the peak of the COVID-19 crisis and the unprecedented level of temporary COVID-19 response measures at the time.
Source – Government of Canada
Similar to What is happening with Debt around the World (20)
Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand.
New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected.
But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000.
The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer.
"High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html
Blog – What is next for the Mining Sector – September 2023
The mining sector provides critical material that support solar, wind, and lithium-ion batteries as part of the green transition. https://www.iea.org/news/critical-minerals-market-sees-unprecedented-growth-as-clean-energy-demand-drives-strong-increase-in-investment
The mining sector products play a key role with the global GDP - https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/global-mining-industry-value-was-69-of-world-gdp-last-year-china-says
Mining practices need to be sustainable including following all ESG policies - https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/how-can-you-monitor-sustainable-mining-practices
Other links and sources –
Lithium Supply and Price - https://zbr.com.mx/en/sin-categoria-es/lithium-prices-fall-44-in-china-due-to-lack-of-demand/138168/
Cobalt - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mahmut-karada%C5%9F-a2b7a5151_china-exportrestrictions-gallium-activity-7082603182589157376-Zrty/?trk=public_profile_like_view
Nickel https://www.eureporter.co/business/2023/09/15/stanislav-kondrashov-from-telf-ag-nickel-prices-outlook-remains-positive/
Iron-ore - https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263584/sgx-iron-ore-set-for-best-week-in-3-months
TD Bank / Metals - https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/setting-the-stage-for-gold-outlook
Biodiversity / Mining - https://worldcrunch.com/green/lithium-green-energy-argentina-indigenous
ESG - https://iriscarbon.com/the-added-value-of-integrated-esg-reporting-a-threefold-framework/
Blog – Manufacturing Shipments and Orders – The United States – August 2023
Summary:
New orders for manufacturing technology in the United States totaled $353.9 million in July 2023, as per the latest report by AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. This figure marked a 12.4% decline from June 2023 but remained only 10.5% lower than July 2022. Year-to-date orders amounted to $2.83 billion, reflecting a 12.7% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
Douglas K. Woods, President of AMT, noted that July is typically a slower month for manufacturing technology orders, so a slight drop was expected. However, he pointed out a notable trend: over the last two months, the year-to-date order gap has narrowed during historically slow periods. While job shops have seen decreased orders, other industries that benefited from reshoring or government investments have helped fill the gap.
Among specific sectors, job shops, the largest customer segment, placed their lowest total monthly orders since August 2020. In contrast, metal valve manufacturers recorded their third-highest monthly order value on record, last seen in September 2018, making up nearly 5% of the total manufacturing technology order value for July 2023. Manufacturers of motor vehicle transmissions continued to order machinery at an elevated pace. However, the aerospace industry continued to order below its early 2022 peaks, with hopes that recent projects like the federal government's $1.5 billion investment in communications satellites might reverse this trend.
Source: https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/september/u.s.-manufacturing-technology-orders-dip-in-july-but-show-resilience-amid-economic-uncertainty
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 15 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Analysis and Commentary – Stock Market – WE September 15 2023
Summary:
Stocks fell Friday as investors wrap up a volatile week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 288.87 points to close out Friday and the week at 34,618.24. At its lows, it completely wiped out Thursday's 332-point rally.
The S&P 500 index sank 54.78 points, or 1.2%, to 4,450.32.
The NASDAQ index plunged 217.72 points, or 1.6%, to 13,708.33.
The Dow held onto a winning week. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed out the week with losses.
Information technology was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, down nearly 2%. Adobe shares fell more than 4% even after the software firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Shares of Arm Holdings were lower one day after its successful public debut.
Auto stocks General Motors and Stellantis N.V. were higher Friday, while Ford Motor was about flat. Thousands of members of the United Auto Workers went on strike after failing to reach a deal with the automakers Thursday night.
Elsewhere, Lennar shares slid 3%. The home construction firm posted third-quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines.
On the economic front, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.1% in
September, tied for the lowest since January 2021. Also, the five-year outlook fell to 2.7%, matching its lowest since December 2020.
Electricity Analysis - Canada and the OECD - June 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Over three-quarters of the world’s total coal-generated electricity is consumed in just three countries. China is the top user of coal, making up 53.3% of global coal demand, followed by India at 13.6%, and the U.S. at 8.9%.
Burning coal—for electricity, as well as metallurgy and cement production—is the world’s single largest source of CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, its use in electricity generation has actually grown 91.2% since 1997, the year when the first global climate agreement was signed in Kyoto, Japan.
However, even as non-renewables enjoy their time in the sun, their days could be numbered.
In 2022, renewables, such as wind, solar, and geothermal, represented 14.4% of total electricity generation with an extraordinary annual growth rate of 14.7%, driven by big gains in solar and wind. Non-renewables, by contrast, only managed an anemic 0.4%.
The authors of the Statistical Review do not include hydroelectric in their renewable calculations, even though many others, including the International Energy Agency, consider it a “well-established renewable power technology.”
With hydroelectric moved into the renewable column, together they accounted for over 29.3% of all electricity generated in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 7.4%.
Source - https://energynow.ca/2023/09/infographic-what-electricity-sources-power-the-world-see-them-here-visual-capitalist/
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 9 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
What did the markets tell us this week?
1. Housing supply and costs continue to plague countries around the world.
2. Gasoline prices are on the rise that puts pressure on central banks ability to hit their core inflation targets.
3. ESG adoption by both the private and public sector is leading to both funding concerns and the overall cost of implementing ESG policies.
4. Adopting technology as part of increasing food production is facing both capital and operational funding concerns.
5. Strike at LNG facility in Australia is leading to concerns around a supply chain disruption of natural gas for EMEA and Asia.
6. The threat of China dumping batteries into markets - https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fc
7. Adoption of generative AI has been facing many challenges related to security, privacy, and ethical issues.
8. Lack of biodiversity planning as part of the overall climate mitigation including sustainable mining, forestry, oil, gas, agriculture, and housing
9. Geopolitical issues continue to impact supply chain.
10. The concerns of recession continue to plague both the private and public sector.
11. Productivity issues continue to plague governments around the world.
Global (Mining Oil and Gas Forestry and Agriculture) Analysis and Commentary ...paul young cpa, cga
The mining, oil, gas, agriculture, forestry, and mining continue to face environmental, social, and governance policy review including reporting of key metrics as part of ESG reporting cycle.
There is more focus on profitability and investment returns as part of the integrated planning and reporting cycle.
Summary:
The global economy faces what at least one forecaster is calling a mild trade recession as shipments from China slump and German factories downshift.
China’s export declines extended into August, though there were signs that the worst of a world trade slowdown may be over for the leading exporter.
Overseas shipments from China fell 8.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier while imports contracted 7.3%, both better than economists’ estimates and significantly less severe than July’s downturn.
Other data have suggested trade may be stabilizing after weakening for most of this year. Exports from South Korea also declined at a more moderate pace in August than the previous month.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-07/supply-chain-latest-world-trade-faces-a-shallow-recession?srnd=economics-v2
Additional sources and links:
Lithium - https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-potential-cost-advantages-of-sodium-batteries
Oil Production - https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/business/oil-price-goldman-sachs/index.html
Natural gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-holds-up-as-markets-in-limbo-over-strikes-202309070956
Lumber - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sawmill-capacity-closures-reshape-us-lumber-supply
Critical metals - https://www.wasterecyclingmag.ca/feature/how-recycling-could-solve-the-shortage-of-minerals-essential-to-clean-energy/
Agriculture - https://www.morningagclips.com/economists-forecast-positive-end-of-year-crop-outlook-despite-warmer-midwestern-climate/
ESG - https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/the-eus-new-esg-disclosure-rules
Ports - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAPAG-LLOYD-AG-24857717/news/Hapag-Lloyd-chief-warns-of-rougher-seas-ahead-for-container-shipping-44789017/
Top destination for reshoring - https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/08/29/uae-in-top-10-most-powerful-passports-for-investment-opportunity/
Global Trade - https://phys.org/news/2023-09-opinion-broke-global-climate-finish.html
What is next for the Forestry Sector and Lumber Production - September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles
Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted.
All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions
More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation
Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute
There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way
3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream
More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands.
There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
2. WOODGROVE
BANK
PAULYOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Changes
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and
Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• Academia – Advance Accounting,
Public Finance and Advanced
Management Systems
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com
3. WOODGROVE
BANK
• This presentation is one perspective on Debt. It is not the only view. People are more than
welcome to visit other sites like BEA, Stats Canada, OECD, Banks, etc.
4. WOODGROVE
BANK
AGENDA
• What is debt
• Types of debt
• Market Forecast
• Government Debt
• Fitch and Canada
• Corporate Debt
• Bank Stress Testing
• Safest banking systems in the world
• Consumer Debt
• City/Local Government
• Global TV / Canada Debt
• Canada bonds downgraded
• Fintech
• Shenzhen China
• COVID19 / Bankruptcies
• Cash flow
• Training and Development
5. WOODGROVE
BANK
WHAT IS DEBT
• Debt is an amount of money borrowed by one party from another. Debt is used by many
corporations and individuals as a method of making large purchases that they could not afford
under normal circumstances. A debt arrangement gives the borrowing party permission to borrow
money under the condition that it is to be paid back at a later date, usually with interest.
7. WOODGROVE
BANK
GLOBAL FORECAST
What drives an Economy?
• Consumer Spending
• Exports
• Government Spending
Source - http://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/global-
economics/economics-publications.html
8. WOODGROVE
BANK
DEBTAND CANADA/
COVD19
8
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-justin-trudeau-affordable-
housing-1.3220479
Rebuttal
1. RRSP Borrowing - http://business.financialpost.com/personal-
finance/retirement/rrsp/forget-tfsas-and-resps-debt-now-the-biggest-challenger-
to-rrsps-when-it-comes-to-where-to-stash-your-money. So, JT supports Harper’s
expanding RRSP, but yet JT has said people are not saving enough for retirement -
http://ralphgoodale.ca/blog/canadian-middle-class-disappointed-frustrated/. Does
this not contradict Goodale’s statement?
2. Commitment for $20B over 10 years for social housing. It seems there are land
issues in cities like Toronto/Vancouver as such how will that additional money
provide more affordable housing and not drive out real estate prices more in those
cities? What about the waste? http://www.torontosun.com/2015/06/07/former-
to-social-housing-boss-lands-in-chicago
3. Justin Trudeau asked the experts? Who are these experts?
McCallum/Brison/Goodale?
https://www.central1.com/sites/default/files/uploads/files/analysis_report/report
_file/Housing%20myths.pdf
Summary:
It is funny how both the NDP and LPC throw out new policies including new moneys,
but do not deal with issues facing various policies. It seems to me that the statements
are narrow minded that do not look at all angle of policies.
Household debt was a 2015 election
10. WOODGROVE
BANK
GOVERNMENT
DEBT
• COVID19 has led to fiscal management issues for all levels of
the government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-and-
provinces-fiscal-and-economic-management or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-municipal-
and-local-government-whats-needs-to-be-done
• China Debt - https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/chinas-28-
trillion-problem-the-dark-side-of-asias-
debt/slidelist/50383894.cms#slideid=50383917
• China debt with countries
• Developing countries -
https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/china-lent-billions-to-
poor-countries-they-cant-pay-it-back
• Government Default
• Record defaults / 2020 -
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/sovereign-
defaults-set-to-hit-record-in-2020-12-05-2020-1
• Many government have Debt to GDP ratios 92% or above
• Government Debt (Bonds)
• Yields are based on credit ratings
• Government debt
• Deficits
• New debt financing (Infrastructure, operating
requirements, etc.)
11. WOODGROVE
BANK
CORPORATE
DEBT
• The corporate debt of non-financial firms across major
emerging markets rose sharply from about $4 trillion in
2004 to well over $18 trillion in 2014 - (Source – IMF)
• In the past six years,” the report stated, “the global
economy has enjoyed a benign default environment as
accommodative monetary policies have fueled the
corporate debt market with abundant liquidity, allowing
many low-rated issuers to refinance when needed. The
party is likely coming to an end soon as the global default
rate is expected to approach the historical average mark by
the end of 2016.” The default rate for all corporate debt is
expected to rise to 2.1%, Moody’s said. That is up from
0.9% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015. It also would be the
highest default rate since the 2008-2009 crisis. If the rate is
realized, it would translate to 138 defaults this year, up
from 109 in 2015 (a 30% increase) and 55 in 2014. (Source
– Moodys)
• New corporate debt - https://www.axios.com/corporate-
debt-issuance-1-trillion-2020-b813ca2e-2a29-459b-afa5-
41299c987d12.html
• Cash Management - https://hbr.org/2020/01/why-are-
companies-sitting-on-so-much-cash
• Corporate Debt -
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4363921-corporate-debt-
crisis-not-gone-away
14. WOODGROVE
BANK
SAFEST BANKING SYSTEMS IN THE WORLD
14
Source - https://passportsymphony.com/countries-with-the-safest-banks/
1. Finland
2. Canada
3. Hong Kong
4. Norway
5. Singapore
6. Germany
7. Switzerland
8. Luxembourg
9. Sweden
10. Guatemala
11. Chile
12. Panama
13. South Africa
14. Belize
15. Vanuatu
• Government debt issues
• Zambia - https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/zambia-s-debt-
burden-hinders-access-to-imf-coronavirus-funds
• Banks taken loans provisions
• Canada write-downs - https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadas-banks-
take-earnings-hit-from-loan-loss-provisions-11590779182
• Tax Havens
• Luxembourg is Ranked #12
• Source - https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-havens-for-
millionaires-around-the-world-2019-11#12-luxembourg-4
15. WOODGROVE
BANK
HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source: OECD
Household debt has risen markedly since
the turn of the century and stands at a
historically high level in most OECD
countries.
It examines the vulnerabilities associated
with high household debt for households,
the financial system and the wider economy.
Finally, it describes the challenges faced by
policymakers at the current juncture and
outlines responses in terms of monetary,
micro and macro-prudential, and housing
policies.
16. WOODGROVE
BANK
CANADA
AND USA–
HOUSEHOLD
DEBT
Source - https://economics.td.com/impact-pandemic-financial
• CMHC new debt policies - https://www.ratespy.com/breaking-cmhc-
rumoured-to-tighten-its-mortgage-rules-impacting-first-time-buyers-
060414150
• BOC warns about business and household debt -
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/bank-of-
canada-warns-of-excess-business-household-debt-from-covid-19
23. WOODGROVE
BANK 23
BANKRUPTCIES
• 24 retailers and restaurant chains have filed for bankruptcy and liquidation -
https://www.businessinsider.com/retailers-filed-bankruptcy-liquidation-closing-
stores-2020-2
• Chapter 11 bankruptcies rose 26% for the first half of 2020
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chapter-11-business-bankruptcies-rose-26-in-first-half-
of-2020-11593722250
• Bankruptcies in the USA for June 2020 are up 43% from June 2019 -
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/major-companies-filing-for-bankruptcy-due-
to-coronavirus.html
• IMF warns small to medium-size bankruptcies may tripe -
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/sme-sector/imf-warns-small-and-
mid-sized-business-bankruptcies-may-triple/articleshow/76992460.cms
• Mortgage issues - https://www.housingwire.com/articles/foreclosure-threat-grows-as-
covid-19-surges-fed-says/
• Housing market will face many issues over the next few years -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/latest-news-housing-canada-june-2020
• Changes in business operational model could lead to changes in commercial and
office - https://www.ibisworld.com/global/market-research-reports/global-
commercial-real-estate-industry/
24. WOODGROVE
BANK 24
CASH FLOW
• There are significant challenges facing many countries including job quality. Interest rates likely will rise slightly
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/alyyale/2020/08/06/mortgage-rates-hit-new-low-keeping-rising-home-prices-in-
check/#208edbd53674 . The issue will be more about wages due to job quality issues -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/average-wages-and-job-quality-canada
• USA continues to struggle with recovery from COVID19 including job quality related issues -
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/07/us-jobs-unemployment-figures-covid-19
• Middle East and Africa - https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200812-mena-highest-youth-unemployment/
• OECD and Job Quality
Bottom line:
• If there are pressures on wages due to competitive pressures, sale drop, access to new markets, etc. this will
lead to employment issues
• Both government and the private sector are turning to more automation -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/technology-canada-and-the-world
25. WOODGROVE
BANK
EDUCATION AND PROFESSIONAL
DEVELOPMENT
• If you like to learn more about
trade and/or other subjects as
part of your professional
learning and development then
feel free to review my material
on https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA CGA
26. WOODGROVE
BANK
RISKS –
WHAT
NEEDS TO
HAPPEN
• Systemic issues with housing -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/latest-new-housing-market-canada-
april-2020 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/urban-and-rural-
planning-whats-next-236315321
• Restructuring of government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-and-provinces-fiscal-and-
economic-management or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
municipal-and-local-government-whats-needs-to-be-done or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reform-local-and-municipal-
government
• The new reality of economy post-covid will see many issues facing businesses
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/state-of-the-world-economy-june-
2020 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-macro-and-micro-
indicators-canada-april-2020-and-may-2020
• Cheap Debt cannot last forever
• Risks with GDP - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-by-industry-
canada-june-2020 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-
for-the-global-economy-august-2020
• Corporate debt
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ezequielminaya/2020/06/16/indicator-points-
toward-slowdown-in-us-corporate-debt/#150a98cf43a5
• Restructuring of many businesses -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-hospitality-sector-whats-
next-236439916 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-
united-states-may-2020
• Hike in mortgage or personal credit rates
• More consumer default
• Lower Credit rating for government
• Higher bond yields means higher interest rates and higher debt coverage