This document discusses the transition to renewable energy and net zero carbon emissions on a global scale based on numerous reports and studies. It highlights that transitioning infrastructure investments of $90 trillion by 2030 to low-carbon options could yield $26 trillion in economic benefits. Meeting the 1.5°C Paris target could save $30 trillion in climate damages by 2030 compared to the 2°C target. Many analyses show renewable energy becoming cheaper than fossil fuels and the potential for 100% renewable energy systems, though political and policy barriers remain in fully realizing this transition.

1. Net global CO2 emission pathway
1980 20202000 2040 2060
BilliontonnesofCO2peryear
2018
The quest for zero net carbon:
globally and in the UK
….an eclectic tour
Jeremy Leggett, Business Green Leaders Summit, 23 October 2019

2. The prize: measured in trillions
Winners and losers
Targets versus execution
Opportunities
Barriers
Concluding thoughts

3. The prize: measured in trillions
Winners and losers
Targets versus execution
Opportunities
Barriers
Concluding thoughts

4. A “trillion dollar energy windfall” is available today
because solar & wind are cheaper than gas & coal
7th Jan
2016
9th Sep
2019
Carbon Tracker describes what it calls a “gigafall” in its latest report.
“The challenge for policymakers is to reap this harvest.”
“as costs fall, so new tipping points will be reached”
including in dispatchable renewables

5. Infrastructure the world needs by 2030 will require
c. $90 trillion of investment, built clean or fossil
7th Jan
2016
5th Sep
2018
Building it clean – low & zero carbon, as per governments’ 2015 Paris
agreement commitments – yields $26 trillion in direct economic gain.
The main conclusion
of a Global
Commission on the
Economy and
Climate report

6. So estimates a Stanford University economic study. “The benefits of
meeting the targets vastly outweigh the costs”: a common conclusion.
Hitting 1.5˚C Paris target vs 2˚ will save the world c.
$30 trillion in climate-related damages by 2030
7th Jan
2016
23rd May
2018
Future Today

7. The prize: measured in trillions
Winners and losers
Targets versus execution
Opportunities
Barriers
Concluding thoughts

8. Jerome Pecresse, GE Renewables: “We are inventing things that we did
not even imagine three years ago …renewable baseload is coming fast.”
“Utilities dispel all doubts about renewables' ability
to power planet”: Recharge on Eurelectric summit
7th Jan
2016
6th Jun
2018
Francesco
Starace, Enel
CEO: electrifying
the transport
sector “is not
only a winning
strategy, it’s a
must.”

9. 7th Jan
2016
1st Apr
2019
By then the innovative systems, products and services will by in place
“to ensure that the network is ready to handle 100% zero carbon”.
National Grid set for zero carbon power system
operation by 2025

10. 7th Jan
2016
27th Jun
2019
100% of Scotland’s electricity came from
renewables in Q1 2019, and full year expected 2020
Surplus wind power exported to England and N. Ireland as enough clean
energy generated to power 88% of Scottish households for a whole year.

11. New Mercer analysis shows where investor
returns are to be found in a 2˚C world
7th Jan
2016
22nd Apr
2019
“Investors need to consider both climate-related mitigation and
adaptation in an active way to develop climate resilience in portfolios.”
Percentage point changes in annual returns in a 2C scenario by 2030
Source: FT
Absolute loss of value by 2041
Cumulative 95% loss of value
by 2050
Coal
Oil and gas
Electric utilities
Infrastructure
Sustainable equities
Renewables 6.3%

12. Firms ignoring climate crisis will go bankrupt,
says BoE Governor
7th Jan
2016
13th Oct
2019
Also: he believes it possible that the global transition could result in an
abrupt financial collapse, and the longer action to reverse emissions is
delayed, the more the risk of collapse will grow.

13. An equity research house removes all “buy” ratings
from the biggest integrated oil companies
7th Jan
2016
6th Sep
2019
“Sector underestimates regulations aimed at curbing climate change.”
Oil demand peak within 5 years means sector faces “an existential risk.”
Redburn hits ExxonMobil hit with a rare “double downgrade”, bumping
the world’s biggest oil company from “buy” to “sell” in one move

14. The prize: measured in trillions
Winners and losers
Targets versus execution
Opportunities
Barriers
Concluding thoughts

15. 7th Jan
2016
June
2019 Global heating: what a difference a degree makes
1.5˚C
0˚C
2˚C
4˚C
Paris Agreement target (to keep below)
Paris Agreement aspiration (to keep below)
3.3˚C
3.3˚C
4.4˚C
Current
policies
3.0˚C
2.4˚C
3.8˚C
Pledges
& targets
Source:
The Paris Agreement of December 2015
was signed by 195 governments, and
quickly ratified by enough of them to
come into force in November 2016.

16. 7th Jan
2016
7th Oct
2018
IPCC: impacts are already clear in the coral reefs,
the Arctic, in coastal flooding, and heatwaves
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate.
We are near 1˚C already
2006
- 2015

17. “We will not forgive you”: Greta Thunberg's speech
to world leaders at UN Climate Summit
7th Jan
2016
23rd Sep
2019
“This is all wrong …you have stolen my dreams and my childhood with
your empty words …we are in a mass extinction …how dare you.”

18. 7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2018
Lift emissions pledges or be guilty of “immoral” and
“suicidal” inaction, UN chief tells climate summit
“To waste this opportunity would compromise our last best chance to stop runaway
climate change. It would not only be immoral, it would be suicidal.”
António Guterres

19. ‘At U.N. Climate Summit, Few Commitments and
U.S. Silence”
7th Jan
2016
23rd Sep
2019

20. 7th Jan
2016
2nd May
2019
UK Climate Change Committee advocates
100% net zero by 2050
The goal could be met at a “manageable” cost, equivalent to
1-2% of GDP each year, the CCC says.
Government projections show
UK currently on course to miss
4th and 5th carbon budgets

21. 7th Jan
2016
2nd May
2019
Zero emissions possible well before 2050: an
argument from the heart of UK Conservatism, and…
“To claim that we cannot afford to wean ourselves off fossil fuels by
2050 is to rely on primitive accounting fallacies.”

22. 7th Jan
2016
12th Jun
2019
UK government opts for zero net carbon emissions
by 2050 as a new target in the Climate Act
Making the UK the first G7 nation to have zero in law as a target.
Critics focus on the discordance with existing energy policy, e.g. on solar.

23. 7th Jan
2016
6th Jun
2019
HM Treasury says it will cost UK £1 trillion to
achieve net-zero emissions by 2050
What a contrast with other studies of cost and benefit,
such as the above.

24. UK must act on emissions if it is not to be
embarrassed - legally - before COP26 in 18 months
7th Jan
2016
10th Jul
2019
So concludes the Climate Change Committee. Just 7 of 24 on-the-ground
indicators are on track. Almost all progress is in the electricity sector.
4th and 5th
budget
periods
Lord Deben, Chair:
“I feel I might be
first witness for the
prosecution”

25. Climate crisis seen as “most important issue”
by public, poll shows
7th Jan
2016
19th Sep
2019
Climate breakdown viewed as most important, ahead of migration,
terrorism and the global economy, in 7 out of 8 countries surveyed.

26. Largest climate demonstration ever: millions of
striking schoolchildren and parents hit the streets
7th Jan
2016
20th Sep
2019
The protests begin in the Pacific and Australia and roll out all day around
the world, embracing 50 countries.

28. Net global CO2 emission pathway
1980 20202000 2040 2060
BilliontonnesofCO2peryear
2018
The system change we need
according to climate scientists
UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, October 2018:
To limit global mean surface air temperature to the 1.5˚C target in the Paris Agreement
2050
…50%
chance
Zero
net
carbon

29. BP’s Energy Outlook, January 2019:
(*Similar to Shell’s and ExxonMobil’s: see www.jeremyleggett.net)
2017
2040
Primary energy consumption by fuelBillionsoftonnesofoilequivalent 25
20
15
10
5
0
The best we can expect by 2040
according to BP*
Renewables
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Oil
more
a little less
“Off the charts”
renewables

30. 7th Jan
2016
14th Feb
2019
“Oil is an ethical investment, says BP”
Spencer Dale, chief economist, says that the debate over tackling
climate change suffers from a lack of understanding about the “basic
arithmetic” of oil supply and demand.

31. The prize: measured in trillions
Targets versus execution
Opportunities
Barriers
Concluding thoughts

32. Three snapshots to give a feel for the potential:
Solar and electricity as the fuel of the future
Heat and energy efficiency: wood in construction
Community energy and the green new deal

33. 7th Jan
2016
12th Apr
2019
First global energy system model using 100%
renewables …based on real weather data
A 4.5 year study by a team of 18,
funded by the German Federal
Environment Foundation +
Global energy demand and supply
for 145 regions modelled on an
hourly basis at 5 year intervals,
2015 – 2050
Model computes the cost-optimal
mix of technologies, based on
existing locally available
renewables (i.e. no further
innovation assumed).

34. Source: LUT University / Energy Watch
7th Jan
2016
12th Apr
2019
1.5˚C zero-GHG energy from power, heat, transport
and desalination sectors is possible before 2050
This 100% RE system - modelled hourly, globally, for the first time – is
lower cost than current global supply. It allots solar 69% of the mix.
€54 MWh
(excl. externalities)
€53 MWh
7.2 billion people
9.7 bn people
63,400
GW PV
19%
78,000 GW total renewables capacity

35. In a historic report, BNP Paribas introduces the new
concept of Energy Return on Capital Invested
7th Jan
2016
4th Aug
2019
“We think the economics of
renewables are impossible for oil
to compete with when looked at
over the cycle. We calculate that
to get the same amount of
mobility from gasoline as from
new renewables in tandem with
EVs over the next 25 years would
cost 6.2 to 7 times more.”

36. 7th Jan
2016
3rd Jan
2019
“If zero-carbon standards were changed to include the emissions from building and
demolishing structures, many of the perverse incentives in the building regulations
would disappear. It would probably lead to more building with wood.”
“Efforts to make buildings greener
are not working”
IEA: putting up and running
buildings consumes 36% of the
world’s energy and produces
some 40% of energy-related
carbon emissions. Five-sixths
of that energy is used to light,
heat, cool and run appliances.
On top of this comes the
carbon cost of steel (+8% of
emissions) and cement (+6% of
emissions).

37. The UK offsite-constructed timber-frame building industry
is capable of making buildings that are carbon sinks….
A Makar home
in Scotland

38. Owner: "The passive solar gain you read about does actually work in
February when I'm sitting here without the heating on."
….but it has barely got started – a massive jobs, zero-
carbon, and energy independence opportunity

39. 7th Jan
2016
14th Jun
2019
Nearly 100 members of the public invest €250,000
in Solarcentury’s Budel solar farm
A showcase in “how developers, provinces, financial institutions and
citizens can work together to make a meaningful difference towards the
country’s transition to a low carbon economy.”

40. 7th Jan
2016
6th Sep
2015
“Massive support for community
renewable energy”
• ICM UK poll: 67% support, 8% oppose
• 65% Conservatives support

41. 7th Jan
2016
22nd Jun
2019
“There is no austerity in the Green New Deal: it will
be terminating austerity”: Richard Murphy
It “aims to deliver jobs on a true living wage in every constituency of the
UK. …Which will mean more spending on local communities.”

42. Targets versus execution
Opportunities
Barriers
Concluding thoughts

43. “The depressing reality about climate change is that
we could solve the problem, at manageable cost,
but are failing to do so”: FT Editorial Board
7th Jan
2016
26th Dec
2018
“The self-deception comes from those who accept the reality, but only pretend to
solve it. …The tragedy is that while the scientists and technologists have won the
argument, the climate sceptics and deniers have effectively won the policy debate.”
“This failure is due to
a mixture of blindness
and self-deception.
The blindness comes
from those, such as
US president Donald
Trump, who deny the
reality of climate
change.”
Howblind do you
have to be?

44. The UK parliament’s first debate on an existential
threat to civilisation for two years
7th Jan
2016
28th Feb
2019
Alan Whitehead MP: “We are all together in this House, just as it is
almost too late.” Adds he is not smug that the sceptics have been
proved wrong, he is scared stiff by the fact it is 2 minutes to midnight.

45. 7th Jan
2016
23rd Jan
2019
The UK has largest fossil fuel subsidies in the EU:
£10.5bn a year, compared to £7.2bn on renewables
The EU as a whole has the same level of fossil-fuel subsidies as 2008
(€55 billion in 2016), despite a 2009 promise to phase them out.
“’We do not subsidise fossil fuels,” a government
spokeswoman tells the Guardian. “They’re just lying”,
ODI spokeswoman Shelagh Whitley responds.

46. 7th Jan
2016
25th Jan
2019
British taxpayers face £24bn bill for tax relief to oil
& gas firms for removal of North Sea infrastructure
That is fully 8% of all UK North Sea tax income. The National Audit Office
warns that the figure will rise if companies collapse leaving government
with the bill ….as has already happened with some operators.
Total tax to government since
1960s: £300 bn.
The industry has been a net
subtractor from the
government purse since 2016.

47. In 2010-2014, 99.4% of UKEF energy finance went
to fossil fuels, and <1% to renewable energy
7th Jan
2016
24th Feb
2019
UK has got to stop FF investment in developing countries, says Ban Ki-
moon: hard to reconcile with commitments under the Paris agreement.

48. So a new report by Prospect finds. Akin to the devastation caused to
coalmining communities in the 1980s, the union says.
UK renewables jobs plunge by a third 2014-17
and investment in renewables halves 2015-17
7th Jan
2016
30th Apr
2019

49. 7th Jan
2016
24th Jun
2019
2018 was ‘toughest year yet’ for UK community
solar as installations plummet 78% to just 7.9 MW
Ore Community College: 250 kW, 100 investors, 50 local …including me.
Generating 76% of its own electricity demand on 27th July.

50. UK energy-saving efforts collapse by almost 85%
after government cuts to programmes
7th Jan
2016
18th Jul
2019
Monthly energy efficiency upgrades fall to 10,000 on average for the six
months to the end of May, vs 65,000 a month in 2014.
Data from a National
Energy Action report

51. 7th Jan
2016
6th Aug
2016 “Hinkley Pointless”
“Britain should
cancel its nuclear
white elephant
and spend the
billions on making
renewables work”

52. 7th Jan
2016
20th Jun
2019
EDF faces new cost overruns and delays of up to
three years at Flamanville reactor
ASN, the French nuclear watchdog, instructs EDF to repair 8 faulty
weldings in the reactor’s containment building, and rejects a request to
delay repairs until 2024, after its putative startup.
Start: 2007
Original target launch: 2012
Now: at least 2022
Original budget:
€3 bn
Now: at least
€12.9 bn

53. EDF announces another cost over-run at Hinkley
Point C: up to £2.9 billion
7th Jan
2016
25th Sep
2019
“Adverse ground conditions” given as the reason. 2025 now the
scheduled start year. Total bill now forecast to be £22+/-0.5 bn.

54. 2.9 magnitude tremor, the largest yet from UK
fracking, shakes houses near Cuadrilla site
7th Jan
2016
26th Aug
2019
This is bigger than the quake that brought fracking to a halt in 2011
(2.3 magnitude). The government’s current ceiling is 0.5.
Shaking houses reported in
Blackpool and Lytham

55. “ ‘Big Oil’ is rapidly becoming
‘Big Shale’ ”
7th Jan
2016
5th Mar
2019
ExxonMobil & Chevron both
planning to c. treble oil
production in the Permian
in the next 5 years….

56. 7th Jan
2016
28th Jan
2019
BP’s 1st global ad campaign since Deepwater
Horizon: critics allege deception, hypocrisy & worse
“We’re producing cleaner burning natural gas, and solar and wind…”
“at BP, we see possibilities everywhere. So we can all keep advancing.”

57. Shale gas is a “major player” in “massive” recent
increase in atmospheric methane
7th Jan
2016
14th Aug
2019
Atmospheric methane concentrations have
been rising since fracking in the US shale
started in earnest in 2007 (often with
demonstrable leakage).
Lower 13C content in the methane in that
decade reflects the lower 13C of shale gas
vs conventional natural gas. So Robert
Howarth of Cornell University argues.
“Shale-gas production in North America over the past decade may have contributed
more than half of all of the increased emissions from fossil fuels globally and
c. one-third of the total increased emissions from all sources globally.”

58. Targets versus execution
Opportunities
Barriers
Concluding thoughts

59. 7th Jan
2016
22nd Jan
2019
Carbon Tracker analysts argue that the politics of
global warming will now follow the economics….

60. 7th Jan
2016
22nd Jan
2019
…and that the world is now sitting right
on the tipping point

61. We will see!
Pick your strategy, place your bets ….and good luck!

62. www.jeremyleggett.net
Including links to this and other powerpoints for free use
Much more here
Thank you