Latest developments in matters relevant to the solar industry in energy, climate, tech and the future of civilisation, spanning the period 24th July to 21st October.

1. The global context of our work
Major developments since the last company review
24th July – 21st October 2019

2. The solar industry is going
from strength to strength
….if not growing as fast as
social imperatives merit

3. IEA forecasts 5 to 6 times growth of renewables
in the next 5 years, 60% of it PV
7th Jan
2016
21st Oct
2019
“Renewables are already the world's second largest source of electricity, but their
deployment still needs to accelerate if we are to achieve long-term climate, air quality
and energy access goals”: Fatih Birol, ED, IEA
Source: IEA Renewables 2019
Renewable capacity growth between 2019 and 2024 by technology
140 GW p.a.
PV on average

4. 7th Jan
2016
21st Oct
2019
This is not what the IEA has always projected
for growth of global renewables capacity….
GWp.a.additions

5. 7th Jan
2016
19th Nov
2018
….and for solar PV, forecast two decades forward,
the projections have been beyond dismal
GW
per year
additions

6. Source: LUT University / Energy Watch
7th Jan
2016
12th Apr
2019
Much faster growth is eminently feasible, so
e.g. modelling by the LUT University team shows
By 2030 32% is solar, and by 2050 72%. In 2017 27% of global electricity
capacity was renewable (2,195 GW).
Average 700 GW
p.a. solar PV

7. A “trillion dollar energy windfall” is available today
because solar & wind are cheaper than gas & coal
7th Jan
2016
9th Sep
2019
Carbon Tracker describes what it calls a “gigafall” in its latest report.
“The challenge for policymakers is to reap this harvest.”
“as costs fall, so new tipping points will be reached”
including in dispatchable renewables

8. Meanwhile, evidence mounts that fossil fuels
are increasingly facing a dismal future
For example, since our last Q review….

9. The insurance giant Suncorp will no longer invest in, finance or insure new thermal
coal mines and power plants ….and stop underwriting existing projects after 2025.
All Australian insurers have now quit underwriting
new thermal coal developments
7th Jan
2016
26th Jul
2019
Queensland floods, Feb 2019

10. “Coal industry stakes survival on carbon
capture plan”
7th Jan
2016
20th Aug
2019
“There is no such thing as clean coal”: Brynn O’Brien, executive director
of the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility.

11. Why would you pay more than renewables and
storage, just to keep using coal?
7th Jan
2016
20th Aug
2019
$ MWh

12. Having invested €2.4bn in oil, gas and coal 2018, the European
Investment Bank now says it will align its strategy with climate targets.
EIB vows to cut all funding for fossil fuel projects
by end 2020
7th Jan
2016
26th Jul
2019

13. “Sharp rise in number of investors dumping fossil
fuel stocks”
7th Jan
2016
6th Sep
2019
S&P 500 sector returns last 10 years %
“Paris climate accord
has been a massive
boon to the global
divestment campaign”
….but performance
has been a factor too
1,100 institutions managing $11 trillion in assets have now committed
at some level. In 2014 it was 180 institutions managing $52 billion.

14. “Big Money Starts to Dump Stocks That Pose
Climate Risks”
7th Jan
2016
5th Aug
2019
Meryam Omi: “There’s got to be an escalation …. “You cannot have the
same conversation for 15 years with no results.”
Meryam Omi
Head of sustainability
and responsible
investment strategy,
LGIM
LGIM dropped
ExxonMobil stock in
June, after the failure of
engagement with
management on
climate risk

15. Investments in the world’s largest oil companies - including ExxonMobil,
Chevron, BP and Shell - were responsible for the bulk of its losses.
BlackRock lost $90bn investing in fossil fuel
companies over the last decade: IEEFA report
7th Jan
2016
31st Jul
2019

16. An equity research house removes all “buy” ratings
from the biggest integrated oil companies
7th Jan
2016
6th Sep
2019
“Sector underestimates regulations aimed at curbing climate change.”
Oil demand peak within 5 years means sector faces “an existential risk.”
Redburn hits ExxonMobil hit with a rare “double downgrade”, bumping
the world’s biggest oil company from “buy” to “sell” in one move

17. Firms ignoring climate crisis will go bankrupt,
says BoE Governor
7th Jan
2016
13th Oct
2019
Also: he believes it possible that the global transition could result in an
abrupt financial collapse, and the longer action to reverse emissions is
delayed, the more the risk of collapse will grow.

18. What is driving this?
1 of 5: The continuing rise of the insurgency
(albeit not fast enough for the climate)
For example….

19. The nation’s primary energy use fell once again, taking it
to its lowest level for decades.
One third of UK electricity was renewable in 2018
7th Jan
2016
31st Jul
2019

20. What is driving this?
2 of 5: More dire warnings from the
world’s climate scientists

21. UN scientists review impacts of global heating on
land, in oceans & cryosphere
7th Jan
2016
Aug 8th
Sep 25th
2019

22. Above 1˚C risks to humans and ecosystems from
changes in land-based processes soar
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate, L is low.
2006
- 2015
Dryland
water
scarcity
Soil
erosion
Vegetation
loss
Wildfire
damage
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
We are near 1˚C already
Permafrost
degradation
Tropical
crop yield
decline
Food supply
instabilities
“Risks, including cascading risks, are projected to become increasingly severe”

23. www.jeremyleggett.net
Including links to this and other powerpoints for free use
more here
on this

24. What is driving this?
3 of 5: Increasingly, the evidence of our own eyes
For example….

25. “The World’s Largest Forest Has Been on Fire
for Months”
Parts of Siberia where the fires are concentrated have reached 6 ˚C
above the 30-year average from 1981 to 2010.
7th Jan
2016
9th Aug
2019
Daily active fires recorded
13 million acres consumed so
far – an area the size of Greece

26. 7th Jan
2016
2nd Aug
2019
Russia declares a state of emergency as worst-ever
wildfires rage, shrouding even Moscow in smoke

27. 7th Jan
2016
29th Sep
2019
“Why Vladimir Putin Suddenly Believes in
Global Warming”
“Russia was happy that global warming opened up Arctic oil, but the melting of
permafrost poses a huge threat to its hydrocarbon heartlands.”

28. What is driving this?
4 of 5: The march of economic discovery
Most notably this quarter….

29. In a historic report, BNP Paribas introduces the new
concept of Energy Return on Capital Invested
7th Jan
2016
4th Aug
2019
“We think the economics of renewables
are impossible for oil to compete with
when looked at over the cycle. We
calculate that to get the same amount
of mobility from gasoline as from
new renewables in tandem with EVs
over the next 25 years would cost 6.2 to
7 times more.”
“The economics of oil for gasoline and
diesel vehicles versus wind- and solar-
powered EVs are now in relentless and
irreversible decline, with far-reaching
implications for both policymakers and
the oil majors.”

30. What is driving this?
5 of 5: The growth of survival-consciousness
in global society

31. Largest climate demonstration ever: millions of
striking schoolchildren and parents hit the streets
7th Jan
2016
20th Sep
2019
The protests begin in the Pacific and Australia and roll out all day
around the world, embracing 50 countries.

32. Solarcentury team members support and join the
climate-strike demonstrations in multiple countries
7th Jan
2016
20th Sep
2019
Nairobi, Kenya

33. Solarcentury in school-strike support role …meeting
requests for the painting of ER symbols on faces
7th Jan
2016
20th Sep
2019

34. Extinction Rebellion:
even my sister is now rebelling!
7th Jan
2016
19th Sep
2019
No more “can we change the subject please Jeremy.”

35. Climate crisis seen as “most important issue”
by public, poll shows
7th Jan
2016
19th Sep
2019
Climate breakdown viewed as most important, ahead of migration,
terrorism and the global economy, in 7 out of 8 countries surveyed.

36. “Donations pour in as Extinction Rebellion
goes global”
7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2019

37. Despite all this, governments are struggling
….which makes the performance of the
business world all the more vital

38. “We will not forgive you”: Greta Thunberg's speech
to world leaders at UN Climate Summit
7th Jan
2016
23rd Sep
2019
“This is all wrong …you have stolen my dreams and my childhood with
your empty words …how dare you.”

39. “At U.N. Climate Summit, Few Commitments and
U.S. Silence”
7th Jan
2016
23rd Sep
2019

40. More companies than ever committed to ambitious
climate action at UN’s Climate Summit
7th Jan
2016
24th Sep
2019
• 87 major companies sign
up for Science-Based
Target of 1.5˚C
• Combined market
capitalization of over
US$2.3 trillion and annual
direct emissions
equivalent to 73 coal-
fired power plants
• Investor groups also make
a range of divestment and
action commitments

41. “Thousands of Tech Workers Join Global
Climate Change Strike”
7th Jan
2016
20th Sep
2019
Employees from Amazon, Twitter, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Square,
and other tech companies across Silicon Valley walk out.

42. Meanwhile, the fossil-fuel incumbency
is fighting as hard as ever

43. Revealed: the 20 firms behind
a third of all carbon emissions
7th Jan
2016
9th Oct
2019

44. Oil and gas majors have bet $50bn since 2017
assuming governments fail on Paris climate goals
7th Jan
2016
6th Sep
2019
Carbon Tracker analyses recently approved projects and finds them
“deep out of the money in a low-carbon world”. Plus many to come.

45. “BP chief says targeting gas could hurt efforts
to lower carbon emissions”
7th Jan
2016
9th Oct
2019

46. Shale gas is a “major player” in “massive” recent
increase in atmospheric methane
7th Jan
2016
14th Aug
2019
Atmospheric methane concentrations have
been rising since fracking in the US shale
started in earnest in 2007 (often with
demonstrable leakage).
Lower 13C content in the methane in that
decade reflects the lower 13C of shale gas
vs conventional natural gas. So Robert
Howarth of Cornell University argues.
“Shale-gas production in North America over the past decade may have contributed
more than half of all of the increased emissions from fossil fuels globally and
c. one-third of the total increased emissions from all sources globally.”

47. “Trump Plans to End Methane Curbs That Oil
Companies Want to Keep”
7th Jan
2016
14th Aug
2019

48. The oil-and-gas rearguard has
an increasingly desperate aura

49. An oilfield services company markets AI as a means
to squeeze more from shale
7th Jan
2016
Sep
2019
An advertisement in a Texas airport.
(Adulterated on my computer)

50. 2.9 magnitude tremor, the largest yet from UK
fracking, shakes houses near Cuadrilla site
7th Jan
2016
26th Aug
2019
This is bigger than the quake that brought fracking to a halt in 2011
(2.3 magnitude). The government’s current ceiling is 0.5.
Shaking houses reported in
Blackpool and Lytham

51. To keep its business models alive, the oil and gas
industry will increasingly have to support hard right
and authoritarian politicians / regimes…..

52. Brazilian oil giant Petrobras halts investment in
renewables projects, accusing peers of disingenuity
7th Jan
2016
5th Aug
2019
Bolsonaro-appointed CEO Roberto Castello Branco says of peers:
“There is a lot of marketing and only a few real actions.”

53. Democracy has regressed in multiple countries
since 2007, and liberal democracy especially
7th Jan
2016
12th Jun
2018
In 1941 there were only a dozen democracies; by 2000 only 8 states had
never held a serious election. But then came the financial crisis.

54. How far would (will) this fossil-fuel supporter be
prepared to go in playing to / mobilising his base?
7th Jan
2016
Sep
2019

55. www.jeremyleggett.net
Including links to this and other powerpoints for free use
more here
on this

56. ….which is nothing if not interesting, in an era
when calls for “system change not climate change”
are being heard loud and clear even in
the heart of the establishment
Most notably, since our last Q Review….

57. The FT recasts itself around the need for
fundamental reform of capitalism
7th Jan
2016
16th Sep
2019
“The long-term
health of free-
enterprise capitalism
will depend on
delivering profit with
purpose. ….At times
it is necessary to
reform in order to
preserve.”
Lionel Barber
Editor

58. On with the drama, in the heart of which
you are all players
Strength and good luck!

59. www.jeremyleggett.net
Including links to this and other powerpoints for free use
Much more here
Thank you