Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

History and future of the global energy transition in pictures and charts, 2016 - 2017

Powerpoint presentation to accompany the update edition of The Winning of The Carbon War, by Jeremy Leggett. @JeremyLeggett

  • Login to see the comments

History and future of the global energy transition in pictures and charts, 2016 - 2017

  1. 1. History and future of the global energy transition in pictures and charts: 2016 -2017 Including source urls as notes Jeremy Leggett
  2. 2. …a saga spanning 2013-2017 …with multiple storylines …across 3 metanarratives As told in… Update edition published 15.2.18.
  3. 3. Global society awakening to a threat to civilisation ….and responding in critical mass META-NARRATIVE 1
  4. 4. An insurgency disrupting an incumbency ….faster than most players appreciate META-NARRATIVE 2
  5. 5. An incumbency facing multiple threats …increasingly existential META-NARRATIVE 3
  6. 6. Environmental campaigning, 1990s Social entrepreneurship, 2000s-2010s Oil research & exploration, 1980s My perspective on the drama derives from …and writing along the way
  7. 7. Global society awakening to a threat to civilisation ….and responding in critical mass META-NARRATIVE 1
  8. 8. …beginning with governments acting on a groundswell of support for action on climate in every sector of civil society
  9. 9. ….and up to 70% cuts by 2050, 34 years from now When the G7 agreed to push for decarbonisation in the Paris Agreement, few believed it would happen 8th Jun 2015
  10. 10. Unexpected result: a clear signal in the Paris Agreement - decarbonisation, as soon as possible 12th Dec 2015
  11. 11. 7th Jan 2016 22nd Apr 2016 175 nations sign the Paris Agreement at the UN on Earth Day: more than any other treaty in history
  12. 12. 7th Jan 2016 4th Nov 2016 The Paris Agreement comes into force
  13. 13. 7th Jan 2016 9th Nov 2016 Donald Trump wins the US presidency
  14. 14. 7th Jan 2016 17th Nov 2016 “Momentum is irreversible – it is being driven not only by governments, but by science, business and global action of all types at all levels” 195 nations issue Marrakech Action Proclamation deeming Paris commitments an “urgent duty”
  15. 15. 7th Jan 2016 18th Nov 2016 “Marrakesh sends out strong signal on climate change” China: “a global trend that is irreversible”. No nation disagrees, incl. Saudi Arabia. Russia: we will stick with the treaty “even if others don’t”
  16. 16. 7th Jan 2016 17th Jan 2017 "China can take lead, climate envoy says" Source: Oxfam report for Davos KSA’s sole solar plant: a 10 MW Aramco car park
  17. 17. 7th Jan 2016 1st June 2017 Trump announces US will quit Paris agreement “I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris”
  18. 18. 7th Jan 2016 1st June 2017 Pittsburgh condemns Trump and commits to 100% renewable energy by 2035 Mayor Bill Peduto: “His misguided decision to withdraw from Paris does not reflect the values of our city”
  19. 19. 7th Jan 2016 2nd June 2017 Michael Bloomberg: US cities, states and businesses will still meet Paris targets “The American government may have pulled out of the agreement, but the American people remain committed to it – and we will meet our targets”
  20. 20. 7th Jan 2016 5th June 2017 Michael Bloomberg: US cities, states and businesses will still meet Paris targets 1,000+ cities, states & businesses, representing a third of US GDP, have joined “We Are Still In”
  21. 21. 7th Jan 2016 26th Dec 2016 “States Will Lead on Climate Change in the Trump Era” • Worst air pollution this year • 24 cities on red alert • Schools shut and flights grounded US decoupling: change in real GDP and CO2 emissions since 2000 GDP Energy CO2 emissions 33 states and the District of Columbia have cut carbon emissions while expanding their economies
  22. 22. 7th Jan 2016 29th Dec 2016 Attempt to kill US climate plans and we will see you in court, 15 states warn Trump Including New York, California, Virginia, Vermont and New Mexico Clinton majorities Trump majorities
  23. 23. California's Gov. Brown signs toughest US climate law: 40% GHG cuts (from 1990 levels) by 2030 7th Jan 2016 8th Sep 2016
  24. 24. 7th Jan 2016 15th June 2017 Michael Bloomberg: US cities, states and businesses will still meet Paris targets Sweden passes world’s toughest climate law to become carbon neutral by 2045 Passed 245 to 41 with support from 8 of 9 parties Deputy PM Isabella Lovin
  25. 25. China kicks off world's largest carbon trading market in major bid to abate climate change and clean air 7th Jan 2016 20th Dec 2017 Initially to cover the power generation sector – responsible for c. half national emissions from fossil fuels
  26. 26. 7th Jan 2016 15th Oct 2016 Multilateral action encouraged: global climate deal reached to limit use of hydrofluorocarbons
  27. 27. 7th Jan 2016 28th Jun 2017 Mayors of 7,400 cities vow to meet Obama's climate commitments First meeting of global covenant of mayors, co-chaired by Michael Bloomberg and Maroš Šefčovič
  28. 28. 7th Jan 2016 26th Jun 2017 250 US mayors endorse switch to 100% renewable energy by 2035 Resolution at the US Conference of Mayors, a bipartisan gathering in Miami Beach
  29. 29. 7th Jan 2016 8th Jul 2017 USA isolated on climate change in G20 communique 19 nations reaffirm that the Paris Agreement is “irreversible”
  30. 30. 7th Jan 2016 6th Nov 2017 COP23 begins, intent on making progress with the ratchet mechanism of the Paris Agreement Key timelines are the deadline for completing a rulebook (2018) & enhanced national emissions ambitions consistent with 1.5 & 2˚C (2020)
  31. 31. 7th Jan 2016 12th Dec 2017 60 world leaders return to Paris for a climate summit on 2nd anniversary of Paris Agreement “We are here not for words but for deeds because we are facing an ongoing emergency”: President Macron
  32. 32. This saga isn’t “just” about climate change
  33. 33. Air pollution up 8% in last 5 years, WHO reports: now single biggest killer in world, 3m deaths a year 7th Jan 2016 12th May 2016
  34. 34. Global pollution kills 9 million a year and threatens “survival of human societies” 7th Jan 2016 20th Oct 2017 Commission on Pollution and Health, published in the Lancet …most comprehensive medical study to date • Triple AIDS, malaria and TB combined • Almost certainly a significant underestimate • Welfare losses: e $4.6 trillion/year, 6% of GDP • Air pollution is the single biggest cause of death
  35. 35. 7th Jan 2016 20th Dec 2016 “China’s ‘airpocalypse’ hits half a billion people” In worst air pollution this year, 24 cities on red alert Schools shut and flights grounded
  36. 36. China to cut 1.8m jobs in coal and steel sectors, spend £10bn on worker relocation 29th Feb 2016
  37. 37. 7th Jan 2016 18th Jan 2017 Chinese government directive cancels 120 GW of coal: 103 plants including dozens under construction
  38. 38. 7th Jan 2016 6th Nov 2016 Indian government declares Delhi air pollution an emergency Concentrations of harmful particles so high they cannot be measured by most air quality instruments
  39. 39. China to ban production of petrol and diesel cars “in the near future”, Vice Minister for Industry says 7th Jan 2016 11th Sep 2017
  40. 40. India aims to become 100% e-vehicle nation by 2030: Power Minister Piyush Goyal 25th Mar 2016 “Can we actually give electric cars for free and people can pay for that out of the savings on the petroleum products...”
  41. 41. 7th Jan 2016 6th Jul 2017 France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040 Emmanual Macron, President Nicolas Hulot, Ecology Minister
  42. 42. 7th Jan 2016 2nd Dec 2016 Paris, Mexico City, Madrid and Athens vow at C40 summit to ban diesel vehicles by 2025 David Koch Paris smog
  43. 43. 7th Jan 2016 23rd June 2016 Oslo votes to slash emissions 95% by 2030, and ban cars in city centre by 2019 en route
  44. 44. 7th Jan 2016 16th Jan 2017 Diesel cars banned from Oslo city centre until air pollution clears
  45. 45. The corporate world plays a vital role
  46. 46. 7th Jan 2016 12th Jul 2017 Corporations pledging 100% renewable power now top 100 RE 100 club now creating around 146 terawatt-hours (TWh) in demand for RE annually…about as much as it takes to power Poland
  47. 47. 7th Jan 2016 4th Nov 2016 Walmart becomes first retailer, 26th company, to have its Science Based Targets approved The SBTs are greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets that are in line with what climate science says is necessary to keep below 2˚C
  48. 48. 7th Jan 2016 19th Sep 2016 600 multinational companies factor Paris Agreement into business plans • Over the next 15 years, $90 trillion will be invested globally in infrastructure where emissions are currently concentrated • The national climate plans under the Paris Agreement represent at least a $13.5 trillion market for the energy sector alone Source: CDP
  49. 49. 7th Jan 2016 16th Nov 2016 More than 360 US businesses urge Trump not to back out of Paris Agreement DuPont, Hewlett Packard, Kellogg, Mars, Nike, Starbucks +: “failure to build a low-carbon economy puts American prosperity at risk”
  50. 50. 7th Jan 2016 11th Jan 2017 >600 US companies and financial institutions have now signed open letter to Trump supporting Paris Original sent by 360 in November 2016, after the election
  51. 51. Surge in corporate planning for cost of carbon: 607 big companies now use an internal price 7th Jan 2016 12th Oct 2017
  52. 52. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 xFrom targets to core business: Ikea unveils ambition to be number-one global residential solar retailer 31st Mar 2016
  53. 53. Regulators beginning to see risk, and so to regulate
  54. 54. 30th Sep 2015 4th Dec 2015 Launch of G20 Financial Stability Board’s Taskforce on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures Mark Carney, FSB Chairman Michael Bloomberg, TCFD Chairman
  55. 55. 7th Jan 2016 14th Dec 2016 G20 FSB taskforce reports: urges climate-change effect disclosure, pay tied to anti-climate action, + The TCFD comprises companies with market capitalisation of $1.5tn and financial institutions responsible for assets of $20tn
  56. 56. 7th Jan 2016 12th Dec 2017 237 companies with market cap >$6.3 trillion now support the TCFD, incl. 150 FIs managing $81.7 tn A doubling in 6 months since publication of TCFD report …includes 20 of 30 systemically important banks, 8 of 10 largest asset managers
  57. 57. 7th Jan 2016 12th Dec 2017 Funds managing $26 tn pledge to pressure worst 100 companies on emissions, = 2/3rds global total 225 institutions incl. HSBC Global Asset Management, Calpers, Axa ++, pressing for disclosure and more from Exxon, Coal India, Glencore ++
  58. 58. 7th Jan 2016 12th Dec 2017 ExxonMobil bows to shareholder pressure on climate: will disclose impact of Paris on business At the company AGMs, the board had long opposed such disclosure despite resolutions supported by some of the biggest pension funds New President Darren Woods, replacing Rex Tillerson 14 December
  59. 59. 7th Jan 2016 12th Dec 2016 Fossil fuel divestment doubles to $5tn in a year, and 80% of total funds are now commercial / pension
  60. 60. Swedish pension fund AP4 makes biggest divestment move of any institution to date 7th Jan 2016 18th July 2016 The $35bn fund will decarbonise its $14.7bn global equity portfolio by 2020 & invest $3.2bn in low carbon benchmarks
  61. 61. BNP Paribas drops all business with a wide range of oil and gas companies and projects 7th Jan 2016 11th Oct 2017 All companies with focus on shale oil & gas, plus tar sands - including LNG terminals and pipelines - and Arctic projects
  62. 62. 7th Jan 2016 1st Feb 2017 Deutsche Bank stops funding coal in order to meet Paris climate pledge
  63. 63. 7th Jan 2016 7th Nov 2016 HSBC’s UK pension scheme invests £1.85bn in fund with no coal, oil and gas down, low carbon up “This is a powerful message that we are sending to companies that they need to step up to meet the challenges”: Meryam Omi, LGIM
  64. 64. 7th Jan 2016 11th Feb 2017 Nordea bans investment in Dakota Access oil pipeline
  65. 65. Catholic church makes record faith-based divestment from fossil fuels 7th Jan 2016 3rd Oct 2017 40 institutions, 4 times bigger than previous record …on anniversary of death of St Francis of Assissi
  66. 66. 7th Jan 2016 12th Dec 2017 Insurance giant Axa takes divestment to new level: dumps tar sands companies and pipeline insurance Also quadruples its divestment from coal businesses and increases its green investments fivefold, to €12 bn, by 2020 Thomas Buberi, CEO
  67. 67. The case for divestment increasingly marries the economic case with the ethical one e.g….
  68. 68. Third biggest US pension fund, NY State's, could have made $5.3bn in last 3 years by divesting 2nd Mar 2016
  69. 69. 7th Jan 2016 18th Sep 2017 A sub 2˚C pathway would save US power consumers $10bn a year by 2021 Proxy founders and PR agency drafting uncovered by a Bloomberg investigation New coal capacity is not remotely competitive, and in the next few years operating costs in almost all coal plants will be more than the levelized cost of new gas and renewables
  70. 70. 7th Jan 2016 16th Nov 2017 Norwegian Central Bank, manager of the oil fund, tells government it should divest from oil and gas Biggest holding end 2016: $5.3 bn in Shell
  71. 71. 7th Jan 2016 12th Dec 2017 World Bank announces it will end financial support for oil and gas exploration from 2019 At present, 1-2% of the Bank’s $280bn per year portfolio goes to oil and gas projects. 28% of its lending will go to climate action by 2020
  72. 72. Then there is the legal system
  73. 73. 7th Jan 2016 9th Apr 2016 Judge in Oregon rules against US government and fossil-fuel industry in landmark climate case 21 aged 8-19 sued the federal government for “violating their constitutional rights to life, liberty and property, and their right to essential public trust resources, by permitting, encouraging and otherwise enabling continued exploitation, production and combustion of fossil fuels.”
  74. 74. Portuguese children to sue 45 countries in European Court of HR over wildfires, and crowdfund costs 7th Jan 2016 25th Sep 2017 First climate case against multiple governments. Failure to tackle climate change “threatens their right to life”. Countries must commit to keeping majority of fossil fuels in ground.
  75. 75. “This event is unprecedented & all impacts are unknown & beyond anything experienced”: NWS 7th Jan 2016 27th Aug 2017 Hurricane Harvey: forecast rainfall Houston city officials: “Head to your roofs, not your attics”
  76. 76. Hurricane Harvey's aftermath could see pioneering climate lawsuits as attribution science tightens 7th Jan 2016 5th Sep 2017
  77. 77. “Big Oil must pay for climate change. Now we can calculate how much”: leading climate scientists 7th Jan 2016 7th Sep 2017 “Nearly 30% of the rise in global sea level between 1880 and 2010 resulted from emissions traced to the 90 largest carbon producers” Myles Allen, Oxford University, et al
  78. 78. San Francisco and Oakland sue five oil companies for damages from rising seas 7th Jan 2016 21st Sep 2017 Public nuisance cases requiring payment for sea walls etc Against BP, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil
  79. 79. Lawyer who helped extract $200 bn from Big Tobacco is now taking on Big Oil 7th Jan 2016 22nd Dec 2017 Steve Berman represents Oakland and San Francisco in a lawsuit vs Exxon, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and BP for causing sea-level rise
  80. 80. 7th Jan 2016 10th Jul 2017 Just 100 companies are responsible for 71% of greenhouse gases since 1988 Source: Carbon Disclosure Project
  81. 81. 7th Jan 2016 18th Sep 2015 A new dimension in corporate lawsuits …all about cheating on emissions limitations
  82. 82. VW CEO told about emissions cheating in May 2014 Company admitted it to EPA September 2015 2nd Mar 2016
  83. 83. 7th Jan 2016 9th Sep 2016 Pa First criminal charge in VW dieselgate scandal as veteran engineer pleads guilty to fraud James Liang helped develop the “defeat software” in 2006 ….Major role in cover-up ….Now co-operating with authorities
  84. 84. 7th Jan 2016 10th Jan 2017 VW admits guilt and pays $4.3bn penalty / 6 present and past executives charged with fraud US Attorney General Loretta Lynch
  85. 85. 7th Jan 2016 6th Dec 2017 Senior VW exec pleads guilty to role in dieselgate fraud, but is still jailed for 7 years Oliver Schmidt
  86. 86. 7th Jan 2016 23rd Aug 2017 Samsung heir found guilty of corruption and sentenced to five years in prison “It can be seen as the shattering of the ‘too-big-to-jail’ trend.” Park Sangin, professor of economics, Seoul National University
  87. 87. ….as already investigated 1989 – 1997 in this book 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 5th Nov 2015 xNew York Attorney General investigates ExxonMobil for securities fraud over climate change
  88. 88. LA Times investigation: e.g. Shell’s Troll gas platform, raised an extra 2 metres; Mobil factored in storms and SLR off Nova Scotia; etc 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 23rd Dec 2015 xOil majors braced for global warming in their engineering even as they fought climate regulations
  89. 89. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 15th Jan 2016 xCalifornia Attorney General to investigate whether ExxonMobil lied about climate-change risks Kamala Harris Rex Tillerson
  90. 90. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 23rd Mar 2016 xRockefeller Family Fund divests from ExxonMobil ruing “morally reprehensible” conduct John D. Rockeller founder of Standard Oil parent of ExxonMobil
  91. 91. Global society is waking up to a new imperative: to cut the current c. 50 billion tonnes a year of carbon dioxide emissions and their equivalent in other greenhouse gases to zero, within a few decades Metanarrative 1 in tonnes
  92. 92. 7th Jan 2016 28th Jun 2017 “Three years to safeguard our climate”: Christiana Figueres + a host of climate experts
  93. 93. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 xEmissions flat for second year despite growth “surge in renewables spurs change” 15th Mar 2016
  94. 94. CO2 emissions from energy stay flat for third year in row – despite global economy growing 7th Jan 2016 27th Mar 2017
  95. 95. Fossil fuel burning set to rise in 2017 after 3 flat years, scientists warn 7th Jan 2016 13th Nov 2017
  96. 96. 7th Jan 2016 2nd Nov 2017 Emissions have already ‘peaked’ in 49 countries, representing 36% of current global emissions
  97. 97. 7th Jan 2016 30th Oct 2017 Global emissions are decoupling from GDP growth in recent years
  98. 98. But there is a long way to go… President Obama’s handwritten note to his climate negotiating team, on the first page of the Paris Agreement, December 2015
  99. 99. An insurgency disrupting an incumbency ….faster than most players appreciate META-NARRATIVE 2
  100. 100. 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 250 200 150 100 50 0 Pricein$/m(mbtu) 4th April 2014 Fossil fuel indices Solar PV Solar PV: cost driving a spectacular expansion …welcome to the Terrordome 7th Jan 2016 4th Apr 2014 Last 40 years Source:AllianceBernstein
  101. 101. 7th Jan 2016 16th Dec 2016 “World Energy Hits a Turning Point” Michael Bloomberg and Mark Carney Solar Wind Average cost of new wind and solar in 58 emerging- market economies, including China, India, and Brazil “Solar power, for the first time, is becoming the cheapest form of new electricity”
  102. 102. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 7th Jan 2016 5th Jan 2017 “Solar Could Become the Cheapest Power on Earth” In recent auctions solar at <$30 MWh Is already < half average price of coal Average solar price may be < coal by 2025 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 CCGTSolar Wind Coal $MWh
  103. 103. Saudi Arabia solar auction breaks record: lowest ever bid price of $17.9 MWh 7th Jan 2016 3rd Oct 2017 First plant in the $50bn national programme Joint bid by Masdar and EDF (NB provisional winner at this stage)
  104. 104. 7th Jan 2016 1st Dec 2017 US coal-fired power plant to be shut down and replaced by solar Wisconsin utility WEC Energy’s 1,190MW Pleasant Prairie plant to be replaced by a 350 MW solar farm
  105. 105. -th --- 2016 Solar PV global capacity is growing exponentially 7th Jan 2016 7th Jun 2017 REN21 report: 2017 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 75 GW = 31,000 solar panels installed every hour
  106. 106. -th --- 2016 China dominates solar expansion, but there are significant emerging markets on all continents 7th Jan 2016 7th Jun 2017 REN21 report: 2017 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Rest of world Italy USA Germany China Japan =375 TWh / yr 24 countries have > 1 GW
  107. 107. Solar was the biggest single sector for new global power capacity additions in 2016 7th Jan 2016 24th Mar 2017 Source: UNEP / BNEF Solar 75 Wind 54 Coal 54 Gas 38 Large hydro 15 Nuclear 10 GW Net new power after retirements $114 bn of investment: biggest sector in £241 bn total renewables investment
  108. 108. IEA hopeless view of future solar PV additions: historic data versus World Energy Outlook 7th Jan 2016 4th Oct 2017 40 institutions, 4 times bigger than previous record …on anniversary of death of St Francis of Assissi 2000 2006 2010 2016 2020 2030 GW per year
  109. 109. Dong Energy wins offshore wind auction with lowest ever price: €72.70 ($80.60) MWh 7th Jan 2016 5th July 2016
  110. 110. 7th Jan 2016 13th April 2017 Offshore wind farms offer subsidy-free power for the first time Bloomberg NEF New Energy Outlook 2016 Dong Energy among group winning German auction at a record-low weighted average of 4.40 euros ($4.67) a megawatt hour, from 2025
  111. 111. 7th Jan 2016 25th Oct 2016 Renewables overtake coal as world’s largest source of power capacity: 500,000 solar panels a day now IEA: 153 GW capacity added in 2015. Total 23% of electricity (coal 39%) 2015-2021 projections up 13% on 2014’s
  112. 112. 7th Jan 2016 7th Sep 2016 All China’s new power demand in 2015 met with wind and solar Consumption up 0.5% (by 27 TWh, in national total of 5,500 TWh) Wind and solar up 48 TWh (2x Ireland’s entire national demand)
  113. 113. 7th Jan 2016 9th Feb 2017 Almost 90% of new power in Europe came from renewables in 2016 Lisbon: 4 straight days of renewable-only power in 2016
  114. 114. India to electrify every willing home with solar, storage and LEDs …. by December 2018 7th Jan 2016 26th Sep 2017 $2.5 billion ‘Saubhagya Yojna’ scheme: rural and urban
  115. 115. 7th Jan 2016 1st Oct 2016 “The solar revolution is coming… fossil fuels could be facing extinction”
  116. 116. US workers in solar and wind in 2016: 475,000 ….more than coal and gas 7th Jan 2016 23rd Apr 2017 Coal Gas WindSolar 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,0000 Source: US Department of Energy
  117. 117. 7th Jan 2016 7th Feb 2017 73% of Trump voters support more solar and wind, & 49% believe climate change is happening
  118. 118. 7th Jan 2016 13th Nov 2017 82% in 13 countries believe it is important to create a world fully powered by renewable energy Largest ever such study: 26,000 people surveyed by Edelman for Orsted
  119. 119. 2015 7th Jan 2016 6th Nov 2017 First 100% RE global power system model published using full hourly resolution at global – local scale Energy Watch Group / Lappeenranta Technology University Coal Gas Hydro Wind Oil Nuclear Solar Bioenergy 69% 18% 8% 2% RE 22% LCOE €70 MWh €52 MWh 20302020 2040 2050
  120. 120. Global investment in electricity exceeds fossil fuel investment for the first time in 2016. But… 7th Jan 2016 11th Jul 2017 Total $1.7 trillion, 12% down on 2015, 2.2% of global GDP Renewables + energy efficiency = $518 bn vs fossil fuels c$700 bn Source: IEA Energy Investment 2017 $718 bn c.$700 bn $287bn $231bn $650bn
  121. 121. Global investment in renewables falls 23% in 2016 But… 7th Jan 2016 24th Mar 2017 x Source: UNEP / BNEF
  122. 122. Record new renewables capacity added at record low cost 7th Jan 2016 24th Mar 2017 Renewable capacity change as % of global capacity change Renewable power as % of global power capacity Renewable power as % of global power generation Source: UNEP / BNEF Renewable capacity > FF & nuclear 2 years running
  123. 123. 7th Jan 2016 5th Dec 2017 Lithium-ion battery prices down to an average $209 / kWh …80% down on 2010 $100 is widely viewed as the tipping point for EVs …and on current trends is reached by 2025
  124. 124. 7th Jan 2016 21st Nov 2017 BNEF predicts energy storage set to double 6 times worldwide by 2030, to 125 GW / 305 GWh Proxy founders and PR agency drafting uncovered by a Bloomberg investigation Source:BloombergNEF
  125. 125. 7th Jan 2016 6th Jul 2017 EVs will be cheaper than conventional cars in most countries by 2020-2025 54% of new vehicles & 33% of all light vehicles on roads by 2040 ….Bloomberg New Energy Finance hikes its annual prediction again
  126. 126. 7th Jan 2016 6th Nov 2017 Global EV sales will be in line with 2˚C scenario to 2020 if manufacturers produce numbers they say 20 countries & cities have announced shifts from petrol & diesel to EVs
  127. 127. 7th Jan 2016 30th Apr 2015 Launch of Tesla Energy The Powerwall 1: 7 kWh at $3,000 and 10kWh at $3,500 ….plus larger Powerpacks for industrial use
  128. 128. 7th Jan 2016 21st June 2016 Tesla offers to buy SolarCity …to make the first renewable / storage / EV conglomerate “The world does not lack for automotive companies. The world lacks for sustainable energy companies.”
  129. 129. 7th Jan 2016 30th July 2016 Opening of Tesla’s gigafactory
  130. 130. “‘Tesla Solar’ Wants to Be the Apple Store for Electricity” 7th Jan 2016 29th June 2016
  131. 131. Master Plan, Part Deux: Elon Musk’s vision 7th Jan 2016 20th July 2016 1. Make stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage. 2. Expand electric vehicle product line to address all major segments. 3. Develop self-driving 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning. 4. Enable cars to make money for owners when they aren't using them.
  132. 132. 7th Jan 2016 17th Nov 2016 Tesla shareholders vote $2.6bn SolarCity deal through by 85%, despite Wall Street scepticism
  133. 133. 7th Jan 2016 28th Oct 2016 Tesla unveils its new line of camouflaged solar rooftiles, plus the Powerwall 2 4 tile types, using microlouvres $5,500 for 14kWh of storage
  134. 134. 7th Jan 2016 4th Jan 2017 Tesla begins mass production of battery cells at (the first stage of) its Gigafactory 35 GWh as of next year …Will be largest building in the world when finished. The next one will be in Europe.
  135. 135. 7th Jan 2016 16th Nov 2017 Tesla unveils an all-electric truck, with 500 mile range, first production in 2019
  136. 136. 7th Jan 2016 1st Dec 2017 Tesla switches on world’s biggest lithium-ion battery c.129 MW power at the 350 MW Hornsdale wind farm in South Australia …enough for 30,000 homes for an hour
  137. 137. 7th Jan 2016 2nd Oct 2016 Carmakers embrace an electric future at Paris motor show Daimler Chairman Dieter Zetsche unveils the Mercedes-Benz EQ
  138. 138. 7th Jan 2016 5th Jul 2017 First major carmaker calls time on ICE-only cars: Volvo to use electric motors in all cars from 2019 x Jean Claude Van Damme in a famous Volvo ad
  139. 139. China's Chongqing Changan to sell only EVs from 2025 7th Jan 2016 19th Oct 2017
  140. 140. BYD founder lobbies Beijing for early ban of internal combustion engine 7th Jan 2016 21st Sep 2017 Wang Chianfu: “China will run out of oil soon” …all buses will have to be electric by 2020, all heavy trucks by 2025, all cars by 2030
  141. 141. “Race to build first electric passenger aircraft takes to skies” 7th Jan 2016 5th Oct 2017 Boeing-backed startup Zunum plans 10-12 seater hybrid commercial plane by 2022, 50-100 seater by 2030
  142. 142. Rolls-Royce joins Airbus and Siemens to form consortium aiming at hybrid planes flying by 2020 7th Jan 2016 28th Nov 2017 Airbus: “We decided we needed to be more ambitious because the world and technology is moving so fast.” The aim is a 100 seater.
  143. 143. EasyJet says it could be flying electric planes within a decade on flights under 2 hours 7th Jan 2016 27th Sep 2017 Anesco’s 10 MW with 6 MW batteries at Clayhill
  144. 144. 7th Jan 2016 10th June 2016 Apple Energy set up, and applies to FERC to supply excess solar electricity from its installations Apple CEO Tim Cook at Climate Week, 2014
  145. 145. “Google Cuts Its Giant Electricity Bill With DeepMind-Powered AI” 7th Jan 2016 19th July 2016 Servers = c. 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions A Google data centre Savings several % = $100s millions
  146. 146. 7th Jan 2016 11th Oct 2016 An energy first as UK successfully transmits data via national electricity grid
  147. 147. 7th Jan 2016 12th Mar 2017 National Grid and Google: investigating DeepMind AI in balancing supply and demand on the UK grid
  148. 148. 7th Jan 2016 20th Dec 2016 China has 317 million smart meters in operation, covering 100% of urban areas and 70% of rural areas Presentation by Zhang Gang, Counsellor of the State Council of China
  149. 149. 7th Jan 2016 20th Dec 2016 ….including smart co-ordination spanning all aspects of grids, at all scales, involving 230 million users Presentation by Zhang Gang, Counsellor of the State Council of China
  150. 150. 7th Jan 2016 20th Dec 2016 ….including China’s first expressway fast-charging EV network between Beijing and Shanghai Presentation by Zhang Gang, Counsellor of the State Council of China
  151. 151. 7th Jan 2016 21st Nov 2016 Siemens & LO3 Energy use blockchain to allow neighbours to trade solar via microgrid in Brooklyn
  152. 152. Digitalisation “will increase the profitability of solar power across every part of the value chain”: SPE 7th Jan 2016 13th Sep 2017 $800bn of additional value for renewables by 2030 Business models: eg solar to be sold as part of a smart building package. Grid services and cost savings for manufacturers, developers & installers
  153. 153. Crown Prince Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi: “I promise you, my brothers and sisters, we will be celebrating.” 7th Jan 2016 16th Jan 2016 “In 50 years, when we ship off the last barrel of petrol, we will not be sad”
  154. 154. “Saudi Arabia Plans $2 trillion Megafund for Post-Oil Era” 7th Jan 2016 1st Apr 2016 Mohammed Bin Salman, Deputy Crown Prince: “Within 20 years, we will be an economy or state that doesn’t depend mainly on oil.”
  155. 155. 7th Jan 2016 25th Apr 2016 “Saudi Arabia pledges economic overhaul to end ‘addiction to oil’” Mohammed Bin Salman, Deputy Crown Prince: “We have an addiction to oil . . . this is dangerous.”
  156. 156. 4th April 2014 By 2030, all new energy will be solar and wind, all new cars EVs, autonomous ones: Tony Seba 7th Jan 2016 20th May 2014 “Resistance is futile”
  157. 157. Google futurist Ray Kurzweil argues that analysts tend to struggle with exponential effects 7th Jan 2016 30 Mar 2016 Solar doubles every c.2 years 30 10 20 50 40 (GW) 60 …to 2% of global energy supply 8 doublings 2000 – 2016… 6 more doublings to 2028… …to >100% of 2016 global energy c. 13,600 mtoe and >150,000 TWh Ray Kurzweil Co-founder, Singularity University
  158. 158. 19131900 Spot the car Spot the horse Total system change: it has happened before
  159. 159. An incumbency facing multiple threats …increasingly existential META-NARRATIVE 3
  160. 160. Coal production has fallen steeply since 2011 and coal-fired electricity has fallen since 2013 7th Jan 2016 16th Oct 2017
  161. 161. Coal capacity versus retirements: the gap has closed rapidly since 2015 7th Jan 2016 16th Oct 2017
  162. 162. 1st global survey of coal phase-out plans shows exit of >¼ of 1,675 companies since 2010 (448) 7th Jan 2016 18th Oct 2017 And nearly 70% (1,141) of the companies currently have no active plans for new power capacity An abandoned coal plant in Illinois
  163. 163. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0% -20 -40 -60 -80 Source:ThomsonReuters Walter EnergyAlpha Natural Peabody Energy Peabody Energy, no. 1 US coal miner, joins 49 others to have gone bankrupt since 2012 13th Apr 2016 In 2011 the top 4 US coal companies were worth $32 billion
  164. 164. 7th Jan 2016 19th Jul 2017 Coal has no future, says US railroad boss: “fossil fuels are dead” Hunter Harrison, CEO of CSX, says he will be financing not a single new locomotive to haul coal.
  165. 165. 7th Jan 2016 12th Dec 2016 IEA: China's new coal plants make “no economic sense” Share in 2000 Share in 2015 Source: IEA
  166. 166. 7th Jan 2016 13th Dec 2016 India does not need more coal-based capacity addition till 2022: Central Electricity Authority
  167. 167. 7th Jan 2016 10th Nov 2017 One of the world's biggest miners is on the verge of going coal-free as Rio Tinto puts last assets on sale
  168. 168. World's biggest coal export port announces shift away from coal 7th Jan 2016 17th Dec 2017 Newcastle Ports Board: “Clearly the long-term outlook for coal is a threat to the port and Hunter region, but it is also a huge opportunity”
  169. 169. 7th Jan 2016 6th Dec 2017 More than half of EU’s coal-fired power stations are lossmaking, and almost all will be by 2030 Analysis of >600 power plants by Carbon Tracker estimates €22bn of losses could be avoided by phasing out coal by 2030
  170. 170. First major utility business model U turn: E.On to pursue renewables and energy services 7th Jan 2016 1st Dec 2014
  171. 171. 7th Jan 2016 10th Oct 2016 Wind and solar power alone can meet the energy needs of a whole region: E.ON Smart Region Pellworm
  172. 172. 7th Jan 2016 5th Dec 2017 All major EU power utilities commit to carbon- neutral power ‘well before’ 2050 Eurelectric secretary-general Kristian Ruby
  173. 173. 7th Jan 2016 11th Nov 2017 “GE and Siemens: power pioneers flying too far from the sun” 2010: Analysts expect 300 large gas turbines to be sold each year 2017: 122 sold Joe Kaeser, CEO, Siemens John Flannery, CEO, GE
  174. 174. 7th Jan 2016 29th Aug 2016 Utilities doing the obvious in M&A: RWE's Innogy acquires Belectric Solar & Battery 280 utility-scale photovoltaic plants and roof-top systems, total installed capacity >1.5 GWp, plus 1 GW of O&M
  175. 175. 7th Jan 2016 27th Oct 2017 “We pay no shareholder bonuses” …includes Doncaster, Leeds, Liverpool, Durham, Nottingham, Islington, Bristol & by 2021 ….Scotland A new wave of council-led publicly-owned energy companies is emerging to challenge the UK’s Big 6
  176. 176. 7th Jan 2016 14th Oct 2016 DSM, AkzoNobel, Google & Philips source power from a wind farm owned by two local co-operatives Windpark Krammer, Zeeland
  177. 177. Some think nuclear power can come to the rescue but….
  178. 178. • €18.5 bn market cap • €37 bn net debt • €22 bn for Hinkley C • €55 bn for French reactors • €? bn for high carbon in pressure- vessel steel What do you do if you are a CFO with a balance sheet like this? 7th Mar 2016
  179. 179. EDF CFO resigns over CEO’s failure to cancel Hinkley Point 7th Mar 2016 Thomas Piquemal CFO Jean-Bernard Lévy, CEO
  180. 180. 7th Jan 2016 6th Aug 2016 “Hinkley Pointless” “Britain should cancel its nuclear white elephant and spend the billions on making renewables work”
  181. 181. “If $100 was too high for the world, $50 is too low for the industry. It will have to be somewhere in between.” John Hess CEO, Hess Corporation Despite huge cuts, most oil majors couldn’t even cover their costs at $50 oil in 2016 7th Jan 2016 2nd April 2017
  182. 182. 7th Jan 2016 24th Aug 2016 “Big oil companies binge on debt” Combined debt $184 bn, double their 2014 level >100% of profits spent of dividends in 2015
  183. 183. “Energy companies buy time by paying debt interest with more debt” 7th Jan 2016 25th July 2016 W&T Offshore: offering bondholders 45% of equity plus more debt notes deferring cash payments due 7th Jan 2016 25th July 2016
  184. 184. Oil and gas extraction has been the least profitable US industry over the last year 7th Jan 2016 24th Sep 2017 Negative net profit averaging almost 7% on average over the 12 months to end July
  185. 185. “Oil price plunge sparks bankruptcy concerns” 11th Jan 2016 $29
  186. 186. The share prices have been dropping …so has the rig count 10th Feb 2016 $30 Source: Baker Hughes data in the Oil & Gas Journal
  187. 187. 7th Jan 2016 16th Sep 2016 North American oil & gas bankruptcies climb beyond 100, on of debts $67bn Filings 2015 & 2016 through August Some are emerging with new capital structures within months ….reportedly on conservative assumptions about future production
  188. 188. 7th Jan 2016 29th Jun 2017 After $13bn of writedowns, BHP chairman says $20bn US shale investment in 2011 was “a mistake” Jacques Nasser: “If we knew what we knew today, we wouldn't do it, of course we wouldn't do it”
  189. 189. 7th Jan 2016 29th Apr 2017 “More Rigs Don't Mean More U.S. Gas …producers are running hard to stand still.” Rigs double since August… …and production drops
  190. 190. “Has the US shale drilling revolution peaked?” 7th Jan 2016 18th Oct 2017
  191. 191. The shale business hasn’t funded itself at any oil price 7th Jan 2016 27th Dec 2017 Even at $100 oil prices in 2012 and 2013, the 33 companies spent more money producing shale energy than they made from operations 33 shale-weighted E&P companies in the 4 main shale oil plays: Free cash flow Source: Bloomberg
  192. 192. 7th Jan 2016 1st June 2017 Michael Bloomberg: US cities, states and businesses will still meet Paris targets “The Global Oil & Gas Industry Is Cannibalizing Itself To Stay Alive” 75% of operating cash flow just to pay interest The Debt Wall Amount of bonds below investment grade that the US energy companies need to pay back each year
  193. 193. Long awaited EPA study concludes that fracking does contaminate US drinking water 7th Jan 2016 5th June 2016 Both industry and EPA had said it did not until this report
  194. 194. 7th Jan 2016 1st Aug 2017 “As the oil patch demands more water, West Texas fights over a scarce resource” Water companies are mining aquifers Farmers and others are preparing to sue
  195. 195. Exposure to intense shale gas operations correlates with higher risk of asthma attacks, researchers find 7th Jan 2016 18th July 2016 Study began in 2012 accessing medical records of >400,000 residents
  196. 196. 7th Jan 2016 2nd June 2016 Scottish parliament bans fracking
  197. 197. 7th Jan 2016 24th June 2016 Germany bans fracking
  198. 198. 7th Jan 2016 30th Aug 2016 Victoria becomes first Australian state to permanently ban fracking and coal seam gas “It is clear that the Victorian community has spoken. They simply don’t support fracking”: State government spokesperson
  199. 199. France bans fracking and oil extraction in all of its territories 7th Jan 2016 20th Dec 2017 • President Macron says he wants to lead the world in race for renewables • Lawmakers hope the ban will be “contagious”
  200. 200. 7th Jan 2016 9th Nov 2016 Monterey county, a significant drilling target, votes to ban fracking despite oil industry lobbying blitz
  201. 201. 7th Jan 2016 8th Aug 2016 UK shale: “All households near fracking sites set to get money paid straight into banks”
  202. 202. 7th Jan 2016 3rd Aug 2017 Public support for fracking in the UK at record low of 16%, government survey shows
  203. 203. World oil supply World oil demand 70% drop in oil price What a difference a 1 – 2% variance can make
  204. 204. 7th Jan 2016 26th Oct 2016 Supply under threat: spending on exploration since 2010 leads only to plunging oil and gas discoveries IEA: • 153 GW capacity added in 2015 • Total 23% of power (coal 39%) • 2015-2021 projections up 13% on last year $>200 bn 2010-15
  205. 205. 7th Jan 2016 12th Feb 2017 “Oil and gas discoveries dry up to lowest total for 60 years”
  206. 206. 1 Electric Vehicle = 15 barrels of oil / year Source:Bloomberg 20 10 15 5 0 2010 2020 20252015 2030 2035 2040 Millionsofbarrelsofoilperday Oil displaced by projected rise of electric vehicles Previous crashes happened with excess supply of 2m barrels/day 2023 Another oil crash? 24th Feb 2016 $31 Demand under “threat”: “Another oil crash is coming and there may be no recovery”
  207. 207. DNV: World energy supply “likely to peak before 2030” …a “watershed moment in human history” 7th Jan 2016 4th Sep 2017 DNV-GL Energy Transition Outlook 2017 2025 GDP Population Energy supply Energy- related CO2 emissions 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 2015 52% fossil fuel
  208. 208. 7th Jan 2016 2nd Feb 2017 Carbon Tracker: Electric cars and cheap solar “could halt fossil fuel growth by 2020” COAL …demand peak 2020 GAS …demand curtailedOIL …demand plateau from 2020 TOTAL FOSSIL FUELS …demand peak 2020 Least fossil-fuel intensive scenario: High PV / EV low 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Expect The Unexpected
  209. 209. 7th Jan 2016 “Dismal delivery puts big oil and gas energy projects at risk” Gorgon: just back online after 2 major gas leaks since 2014 start E&Y study of 365 oil and gas megaprojects: 64 % cost overrun, 73% behind schedule 7th Jan 2016 25th July 2016 7th Jan 2016 25th July 2016
  210. 210. “Oil industry faces huge worker shortage” 7th Jan 2016 8th July 2016 The average age of the oil industry worker is 49 c. 350,000 workers laid off industry-wide, c. 60% of fracking workforce laid off, c. 70% fracking equipment idled, >70 companies bankrupt
  211. 211. 7th Jan 2016 21st Apr 2016 “As Oil Jobs Dry Up, Workers Turn to Solar Sector” Alamo 6 solar farm
  212. 212. The core oil and gas climate (and indeed survival) argument…. ….is that burning gas is less bad for global warming than burning coal
  213. 213. True ….depending on leakage
  214. 214. “The data confirm that we can and must do more on methane.” 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 29th Feb 2016 xEPA Chief: Methane emissions from oil and gas “substantially higher than we thought”
  215. 215. 7th Jan 2016 28th Apr 2016 The U.S. oil and gas boom is having global atmospheric consequences, NOAA reports Fully 2% of rising global ethane concentrations from Bakken Shale
  216. 216. “Future of natural gas hinges on staunching methane leaks” 7th Jan 2016 11th July 2016 EPA data collection programme underway on 10s of 1000s of oil and gas operations. Some drillers have committed to <1% emissions.
  217. 217. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 11th Mar 2016 xUS and Canada to cut methane emissions from oil and gas industry by 40-45%
  218. 218. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 11th Mar 2016 xAPI says it will take legal action because emissions cuts will “threaten the shale revolution” Jack Gerard CEO
  219. 219. NASA-led team shows oil & gas industry responsible for largest share of recent rising methane emissions 7th Jan 2016 20th Dec 2017 New measurements reconciling isotopic data suggest fossil fuels contributed 12–19 Tg CH4 per year of c. 25 Tg CH4 per year since 2006
  220. 220. “The long twilight of the big oil companies”7th Jan 2016 27th May 2016 FT View: “Fossil fuel producers face a future of slow and steady decline” 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 27th May 2016
  221. 221. 7th Jan 2016 “Oil giants find there’s nowhere to hide from doomsday market” 7th Jan 2016 7th Jan 2016 25th July 2016 7th Jan 2016 29th July 2016 $41 “The industry cannot survive on current oil prices.”
  222. 222. 7th Jan 2016 19th Sep 2016 “Big Oil was never that big a money-maker, Goldman Sachs says” Oil price (Brent, real) CROCI BP Shell ExxonMobil
  223. 223. Investment in fossil fuels takes a nosedive: IEA on 2015 7th Jan 2016 20th Sep 2016 Fatih Birol, ED, IEA: “Anyone who does not understand what is going on - governments, companies, markets – is not in the right place”
  224. 224. 21st Mar 2016 $39 What happens when the oil price rises again? “What has yet to be tested is how keen banks and bond investors will be to finance that drilling.”
  225. 225. 7th Jan 2016 3rd Aug 2017 “Oil has a crisis of faith” “The likeliest culprit is fear that, even if oil prices aren't falling further, they are low enough to affect E&P firms' growth plans”
  226. 226. 7th Jan 2016 1st Jul 2017 “Oil Company Wins Over Investors by Promising to Stop Looking for Oil” “Suncor shares outperformed every major North American oil company from June 2016 to May, as well as the S&P 500 index”
  227. 227. 7th Jan 2016 21st Jun 2017 c. $2.3 trillion of capex should not be deployed by 2025 if the OGI is to keep to a 2˚C budget Within 2˚C budget (IEA 450) …50% probability Business as usual Capex($bn,real2017: 69publicallytradedcompanies) Historic Latest report: Two Degrees of Separation Based on CTI & Rystad analysis $1.6 tn oil $700 bn gas …of which $200bn LNG
  228. 228. 7th Jan 2016 16th Aug 2017 “Shell takes $14bn gas gamble with world’s biggest floating structure” FLNG vessel Prelude Length 488 metres
  229. 229. 7th Jan 2016 3rd Nov 2016 Shell CEO: “no-one makes money from renewables” Ben van Beurden
  230. 230. 7th Jan 2016 3rd Nov 2016 “I did talk to him …to point out that we are making profits …with solar energy priced at $0.05 per kWh.” Paddy Padmanathan CEO, ACWA Power
  231. 231. Big oil and gas companies are unsurprisingly taking out hedge bets…
  232. 232. 7th Jan 2016 18th Oct 2017 Statoil powers up world's first floating windfarm off coast of Scotland The $200m 30 MW Hywind project
  233. 233. Statoil takes first stake in utility-scale solar 7th Jan 2016 19th Sep 2017 Their first major move in solar is a 40% stake in a 162 MW Scatec project in Brazil (when you do, its still all about oil & gas)
  234. 234. 7th Jan 2016 7th Aug 2017 Shell to supply electricity to commercial users in the UK from 2018
  235. 235. Shell buys electric car charging company 7th Jan 2016 12th Oct 2017 One of Europe’s largest, with 30,000 electric charge points
  236. 236. Shell to supply energy to UK households after takeover of First Utility 7th Jan 2016 21st Dec 2017 £200 – 300 million for access to 850,000 homes to compete with the vulnerable Big 6 and create a platform for expansion to other markets
  237. 237. 7th Jan 2016 15th Dec 2017 BP to reenter solar market with 43% $200m stake in developer Lightsource
  238. 238. BP to spend $400m a year on alternative energy, says CEO: “We’re placing bets, but not big bets” 7th Jan 2016 20th Dec 2017 $400m is a fraction of its $15bn-$17 bn annual capital expenditure …and its total $62 bn fines and settlements for the Gulf of Mexico spill
  239. 239. …so not like the “Beyond Petroleum” era then 7th Jan 20162000
  240. 240. One (former) oil and gas company has already shown that total transition is possible….
  241. 241. 7th Jan 2016 13th June 2016 Dong Energy - Danish Oil and Natural Gas - now 75% renewables …enjoys most successful IPO of 2016 $16.5 bn market cap, $2.6 bn proceeds of IPO
  242. 242. DONG changes its name to reflect near-100% transition to renewables 7th Jan 2016 2nd Oct 2017 Named after the Danish electricity pioneer, to reflect its “profound strategic transformation from black to green energy.” on track for a 95% renewable footprint by 2023
  243. 243. It can be done!
  244. 244. The drama continues….
  245. 245. There is a major caveat to my cautiously upbeat analysis of the global energy transition. It concerns the wider uses and abuses of tech in society….
  246. 246. Notwithstanding all the manifest good digitalisation can bring to the energy transition, development, and wider social goals….
  247. 247. 7th Jan 2016 17th Jul 2017 Elon Musk: regulate Artificial Intelligence to combat its “existential threat” before it is too late “By the time we are reactive in AI regulation, it’ll be too late. AI is a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilisation.”
  248. 248. 7th Jan 2016 13th Mar 2017 Microsoft researcher warns AI is “ripe for abuse” by authoritarian regimes “This is a fascist’s dream - power without accountability.” Kate Crawford
  249. 249. Campaign to Stop Killer Robots produces hair-raising video of current lethal capabilities 7th Jan 2016 13th Nov 2017
  250. 250. “ and convenient assassination machines available to everybody with an axe to grind” 7th Jan 2016 28th Aug 2017 As described by Max Tegmark, professor of physics at MIT co-founder of the Future of Life Institute
  251. 251. 7th Jan 2016 8th Jan 2017 Hundreds of AI / robotics researchers develop 23 principles for global use: the Asilomar Principles 23) Common Good: Superintelligence should only be developed in the service of widely shared ethical ideals, and for the benefit of all humanity rather than one state or organization