Fracking has started again in the UK after a 7 year abeyance. Time to update my August 2018 presentation suggesting this is a very bad idea.

1. History of oil and gas production from shale
in pictures and charts
Why American shale is heading for a crash and
fracking in the UK is doomed to costly failure
Jeremy Leggett
Updated 16th October 2018

2. Preface
The slides are from the Future Today chronology
of selected developments in climate, energy, tech
and the future of civilization: www.jeremyleggett.net
The powerpoint version of this summary includes source urls
as notes, and is available free for any use in this folder:
http://bit.ly/2xHZlu8
I know something about this subject not just because of my fear of climate
change and passion for the energy transition, but from the research work
I did for more than a decade in my first career….

3. A paper in the Journal of The Geological Society
analyses widespread shale rocks in the UK
7th Jan
2016
Apr
1980
I researched shale and related rocks while on the faculty at Imperial
College (1978 – 1989), funded among others by BP and Shell.

4. At first pass, the reversal of US gas and oil production
after fracking of shale began in earnest around 2007-8
looks like a modern industrial miracle

5. 7th Jan
2016
2015
Fracking of shale from c. 2006 pushes US gas
production steeply up after 5 years of decline
Trillioncubicfeet
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2016
US dry natural gas production by resource type

6. 1940: 6 in 7 barrels used by Allies
in WW2 come from the US
1950: Car use and oil imports soar
Nov 1970
Peak
1977
Alaska comes
onstream
2008:
Fracking
in shale
2014 Price
collapse
…recovery
7th Jan
2016
31st Jan
2018
Fracking of shale from 2008 pushes US oil
production above 10 mbd: heights last seen in 1970
millionbarrelsperday

7. 7th Jan
2016
2011
This “game changer” for oil & gas triggers euphoria,
including in the political, media and analyst worlds

8. Tar sands
US shale oil
Conventional crude oil
Global crude oil production 2005–2014
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
80,000
68,000
70,000
72,000
74,000
76,000
78,000
66,000
64,000
62,000
60,000
Thousandbarrelsperday
Source:IEA
US shale is propping up global crude oil production,
and has derailed / deferred fears of a supply peak
7th Jan
20162014

9. But meanwhile there are some inconvenient truths
concerning the economics

10. The US shale oil and gas business hasn’t funded
itself at any oil price in any year since the beginning
7th Jan
2016
27th Dec
2017
Even at $100 oil prices in 2012 and 2013, the 33 companies spent more
money producing shale energy than they made from operations.
33 shale-weighted E&P companies in the 4 main shale oil plays:
Free cash flow
Source: Bloomberg

11. Even at the relatively high oil prices of 2017 fracked
shale oil is a marginally profitable business at best
7th Jan
2016
3rd Mar
2018
Capex v cash from operations based on 10K full 2017 filings

12. Accounts of the main US exploration & production
companies show 73% of them are losing money
7th Jan
2016
3rd Mar
2018
Capex v cash from operations based on 10K full 2017 filings

13. 7th Jan
2016
13th Feb
2018
A summary of the finances of fracked gas in the USA
since the dawn of the shale gas boom
Prof David Smythe for TEDx: income has been half costs plus borrowing
…and rapid production declines won’t allow bonds to be repaid.
Unconventional well finances 2007 – 2016 inclusive
350
70
227
647
Historic income (gas sales) 1
Drilling / completion cost 2
Royalties, leases, interest etc 3
Issuance of debt – junk bonds 4
324
$ billion

14. 7th Jan
2016
6th Feb
2018
The US shale boom has been “a Ponzi scheme since
day one”, doomed to collapse as fast as it has grown
So argues @SRSroccoReport, based on the buildup of debt as evidenced
in data collated e.g. by the Financial Times as above.

15. And even if somehow the majority of companies
fracking shale could find their way to profitability
they would face another problem of economics
coming fast at them down the tracks….

16. 7th Jan
2016
12th Feb
2018
“A Powerful Mix of Solar and Batteries Is Beating
Natural Gas”
e.g. Arizona PS Co. opts for a solar-battery project cheaper than gas.
California PURC requires PG&E to use batteries over gas.
The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About To Change Forever

17. Case for coal and gas plants is “crumbling” as wind,
solar and battery costs plunge
7th Jan
2016
28th Mar
2018
Bloomberg New Energy Finance says its latest conclusions
have “chilling” implications for fossil generators.
• Global LCOE falls 18% YOY for
both onshore wind and PV in
first six months of 2018
…to $55/MWh and $70MWh
respectively
• Offshore wind down 5% to
$118/MWh
• 79% fall in lithium-ion battery
costs since 2010

18. There have been clear warnings about the debt mountain
from early on in the shale story, and all the way through it
….in this respect the shale debt bubble is unlike the
mortgage-backed securities debt bubble that built up
before the credit crunch of 2007 and financial crisis of 2008
(In some of the pictures and charts that follow,
the oil price of the day [Brent crude] is in yellow)

19. 1 mile
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2014 (data from Drillinginfo, February, 2014)
“Is the U.S. Shale Boom Going Bust?”
(…even at $100 oil)
22nd Apr
2014
$108
Another Bloomberg report, on 30th April, digs further. Its headline:
“Shale Drillers Feast on Junk Debt to Stay on Treadmill.”

20. “The Shale Industry Could Be Swallowed
By Its Own Debt”
17th Jun
2015
$60
“Drillers’ debt ballooned to $235 billion at the end of the first quarter, a
16 percent increase in the past year, even as revenue shrank.”

21. “Oil price plunge sparks bankruptcy concerns”
11th Jan
2016
$29
Long-term debt for 134 public oil exploration and production companies
in the US and Canada. 2015 figure is through December 17th.

22. Both trains and drillers are
increasingly getting burned
in the shale boom
“BHP writes down US shale assets by $7.2bn”
15th Jan
2016
$28

23. 7th Jan
2016
29th Jun
2017
After $13bn of writedowns, BHP chairman says
$20bn US shale investment in 2011 was “a mistake”
Jacques Nasser: “If we knew (in 2011) what we knew today,
we wouldn't do it, of course we wouldn't do it.”

24. “It will take more than an oil price rally
to restart the US shale boom”
10th Feb
2016
$30
"It’s not really like just turning on
the light switch."
Bill Thomas, chief executive
EOG Resources
Reasons include cannibalization and degradation of idled equipment,
workers relocating to growth sectors such as solar.

25. “Oil industry faces huge worker shortage”7th Jan
2016
8th July
2016
$44
The average age of the oil
industry worker is 49
c. 350,000 workers laid off industry-wide, c. 60% of fracking workforce
laid off, c. 70% fracking equipment idled, >70 companies bankrupt

26. The industry is innovating its costs down constantly:
global average oil breakeven cost is now at $51
7th Jan
2016
13th July
2016
$44
This is down $19 since 2014, and shale costs are among the lowest. But
it is not enough to reverse the buildup of the debt mountain.

27. “Energy companies buy time by paying debt
interest with more debt”
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2016
W&T Offshore, for example: they are offering bondholders 45% of
equity plus more debt notes deferring cash payments due.
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2016
$43

28. 7th Jan
2016
24th Oct
2016
$49
“Bankruptcy bust: How zombie companies are killing
the oil rally”
c.70 bankrupt companies are producing fully 1.1 mbd, restricting the oil
price rise that can offer at least some hope of profitability.

29. 7th Jan
2016
1st June
2017
$50
Michael Bloomberg: US cities, states and businesses
will still meet Paris targets
“The Global Oil & Gas Industry Is Cannibalizing Itself
To Stay Alive”
75% of operating
cash flow just to
pay interest
The Debt Wall
Amount of bonds below investment grade that the US
energy companies need to pay back each year

30. Oil and gas extraction has been the least profitable
US industry over the last year
7th Jan
2016
24th Sep
2017
$58
Negative net profit averaging almost 7% over the 12 months to end July.

31. “Has the US shale drilling revolution peaked?”
7th Jan
2016
18th Oct
2017
$58
Rather inconvenient if so, because production must be maintained for a
long time, at high oil prices, in order to service / reduce the debt wall.

32. Shale gas represents 64% of US dry gas production:
the US economy can ill afford any kind of collapse
7th Jan
2016
2nd Mar
2018
$64
Much depends on the Marcellus Shale (mostly in Pennsylvania), which
provides 38% of shale gas production and 24% of US gas production.

33. “Wary shale investors warn against drilling
at all costs”
7th Jan
2016
1st Apr
2018
$69
Says one: “If you outspend cash flow on stupid investments & destroy
capital, I’m not just going to be mad at you, I’m going to punish you…”

34. 7th Jan
2016
29th Apr
2017
$75
“More Rigs Don't Mean More U.S. Gas …producers
are running hard to stand still.”
Rigs double since August…
…and production drops

35. Fast shale-well depletion means “the oil and gas
infrastructure bubble is over”: John Dizard in the FT
7th Jan
2016
13th Apr
2018
Investors’ dilemma: “No matter how many years’ service the pipes and
plants could provide, there will not be the production to fill them.”

36. “Shale Industry Drills More Debt Than Profit”:
DeSmogBlog launches series on $280 bn debt pile
7th Jan
2016
18th Apr
2018
“The American oil and gas boom spurred by fracking innovations may be
one of the largest money-losing endeavors in the nation's history.”

37. e.g. EOG Resources: $1.1 bn loss in 2016. Would have lost $0.7 bn in
2017 but for GOP tax handout of $2.2 bn. It is still $6bn in debt.
US fracking companies tipped from yet more debt
to profit by Trump tax law change at end of 2016
7th Jan
2016
26th Apr
2018

38. “The US shale industry has been a money pit”: FT. Chart shows free cash
flow per barrel produced for a sample of leading companies.
As the oil price rises, some US shale drillers finally
just about recoup the cost of their drilling
7th Jan
2016
22nd Apr
2018
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: FT
$2
0
-2
-4
-6

39. Unprofitability of fracking means the industry must keep borrowing new
debt to pay back existing debt: “…the very definition of a Ponzi Scheme.”
“How Lousy Shale Economics Will Pull Down The
U.S. Economy”: SRSrocco Report
7th Jan
2016
18th May
2018
$78
Future Today
2015
2016
2017
• Plotting production decline by year
of first flow shows just how fast the
decline rates are
• This plot is of the Permian, the
biggest oil basin, showing e.g. 60%
decline in 2 years from beginning
2016 to end 2017 (red circles)
• Replacing that decline requires
taking on another massive
increment of debt to bankroll new
production
1
2
million barrels / day
1.5
0.5

40. To keep production ahead of such decline, most companies are piling on
debt even at current oil prices. Cash flow in top 10 Q1 2018: - $455 m.
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2018
$73
Decline rate in the top US shale oilfields has steadily
increased to half a million barrels per day now

41. “The U.S. Shale Industry is in serious trouble. Most of the shale fields
have reached a peak …I forecast a rapid disintegration of the industry.”
7th Jan
2016
16th Aug
2018
“Big Trouble Brewing At The Bakken: Rapid Rise In
Water Production Signals Red Flag Warning”

42. “The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground”
…in shale
7th Jan
2016
1st Sep
2018
Bethany McLean, author of famous book on Enron's collapse:
“the Federal Reserve is responsible for the fracking boom.”

43. As though this state of play were not bad enough,
some shale players have demonstrably inflated
share prices fraudulently. If this tendency proves
to be as widespread as some fear, the shale-debt
crisis could end up worse than summarized here

44. 2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
1st Mar
2016
xEx Chesapeake boss indicted for conspiracy
Anti-trust investigations of other drillers ongoing

45. 2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
x
Ex Chesapeake boss dies in fiery car crash

46. 2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
4th Mar
2016
x“McClendon's Actions Aren't Uncommon
Across U.S. Shale Patch”

47. 7th Jan
2016
15th June
2016
“Why Billions in Proven Shale Oil Reserves
Suddenly Became Unproven”
2016 deletions: = 9.2 bn barrels across 59 U.S. oil and gas companies -
more than 20 % of their inventories. The SEC is investigating.

48. The track record of resource exaggeration
is not encouraging

49. EIA revises down its estimate of oil recoverable in
the Monterrey Shale of California by, ahem, 96%
7th Jan
2016
21st May
2014
Monterrey lauded in 2011 as a 13 bn barrel resource: 66% of US shale
oil supply. Rather more media coverage of that story than this one.

50. 7th Jan
2016
5th Feb
2018
EIA 2017 shale oil projection “highly to extremely
optimistic, and are very unlikely to be realized”: PCI
$ hundreds of billions in
debt to do this much
$7.7 trillion needed to drill 1.29 million wells
in EIA’s projected production
Source:DavidHughes,PostCarbonInstitute

51. As the debts have built up, so have
environmental problems

52. An increasing flow of worrying environmental
reports on water, waste, frack fluids, & emissions
7th Jan
2016
2007
to
2014

53. City where the shale industry began - Denton, Texas
- votes to ban fracking on environmental concerns
7th Jan
2016
5th Nov
2014

54. Response: Texas Legislature bans fracking bans
7th Jan
2016
16th Jun
2015

55. Long awaited EPA study concludes that fracking
does contaminate US drinking water
7th Jan
2016
5th June
2016
Both the oil and gas industry and the Environmental Protection Agency
had insisted that it did not until this report.

56. 7th Jan
2016
1st Aug
2017
“As the oil patch demands more water, West Texas
fights over a scarce resource”
Water companies are mining aquifers
Farmers and others are preparing to sue

57. So a Duke University study finds. Total produced water is “more on a per
day basis than Niagara Falls has going over it in an hour,” says a lawyer.
7th Jan
2016
15th Aug
2018
Fracking wastewater volume rose 1,440% in 5 years,
water use 770%, adding to tension in dry regions

58. Current wells use 10 to 30 million gallons. A million more wells are
planned in the next 20 years. That means trillions of gallons!
7th Jan
2016
16th Aug
2018
Cornell Professor Anthony Ingraffea explains why
frackers’ plans threaten America’s water supply

59. Exposure to intense shale gas operations correlates
with higher risk of asthma attacks, researchers find
7th Jan
2016
18th July
2016
Study began in 2012 on medical records of >400,000 residents. Finds
increase in severity of asthma in those exposed to most active wells.

60. 7th Jan
2016
27th Jan
2013
So much gas is being flared from US shale fracking
for oil that it can easily be seen from space
Bakken Shale
Minnesota St Paul
`Chicago
Enough gas wasted to power all the homes
in Chicago and Washington DC combined

61. 7th Jan
2016
18th July
2018
If the the gas burnt globally in flares were captured and used for power
generation, it could supply 90% of Africa’s electricity consumption.
Global gas flaring dropped slightly in 2017, but
rose 7% in the US because of fracked shale oil

62. “Trump Administration Wants to Make It Easier to
Release Methane Into Air”
7th Jan
2016
10th Sep
2018
Oil & gas lobbyist group the Western Energy Alliance “praised the Trump
administration for turning the oil companies’ requests into policy.”

63. A new first for the US shale gas industry: some of its
product is being sold with ‘responsible’ branding
7th Jan
2016
9th Sep
2018
Utility New Jersey Resources is to buy gas produced ‘responsibly’ from
Southwestern Energy wells in W Virginia, at an undisclosed premium.

64. The core oil and gas climate argument is that burning
gas is less bad for global warming than burning coal

65. True
….depending
on leakage

66. 7th Jan
2016
28th Jun
2017
The Paris climate emissions budget is tiny, meaning
all existing gas reserves cannot be safely burned
Decarbonisation
by 2040
As set out by Christiana Figueres + long list of climate experts. “3 years
to safeguard our climate.” And if methane leakage is significant ….

67. “Future of natural gas hinges on staunching
methane leaks”
7th Jan
2016
11th July
2016
EPA data collection programme underway on 10s of 1000s of oil and
gas operations. Some drillers have committed to <1% emissions.

68. Methane leaks from the US oil & gas industry c.60%
higher than government estimates: new study
7th Jan
2016
21st Jun
2018
9-basin estimate incorporating aerial data suggests 2.3% leakage well-
to-power plant. EPA suggested 1.4%. 2.7% makes gas worse than coal.

69. “The data confirm that we can and must
do more on methane.”
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
29th Feb
2016
xEPA Chief: Methane emissions from oil and gas
“substantially higher than we thought”

70. 2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
11th Mar
2016
xUS and Canada to cut methane emissions from
oil and gas industry by 40-45%

71. 2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
11th Mar
2016
xAPI says it will take legal action because emissions
cuts will “threaten the shale revolution”
Jack Gerard
CEO

72. 7th Jan
2016
28th Apr
2016
The U.S. oil and gas boom is having global
atmospheric consequences, NOAA reports
Fully 2% of rising global ethane concentrations (which can only
come from fossil fuels) are from the Bakken Shale.

73. 7th Jan
2016
16th Aug
2016
In US methane hot spot, researchers pinpoint
sources of 250 leaks using airborne sensors
c. 600,000 metric tons. Major coal bed methane production region.
More than 50% emissions from 10% of leaks.

74. NASA-led team shows oil & gas industry responsible
for largest share of recent rising methane emissions
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2017
New measurements reconciling isotopic data suggest fossil fuels
contributed 12–19 Tg CH4 per year of c. 25 Tg CH4 per year since 2006.

75. Methane leakage at 1,000 gas production sites in 8
US shale basins is more than double EPA’s results
7th Jan
2016
26th Sep
2018
So a Carnegie Mellon University team finds. Total production leakage
varies by basin from 0.9% to >4.5% ….worse than coal.
Top 50% of sites
= 50% of emissions
This
study
EPA

76. As much as 5% of gas produced in Argentina’s Vaca
Muerta shale drilling is leaking to the atmosphere
7th Jan
2016
24th Sep
2018
So investigator Jorge Talliant finds. “There is a history of abuse as no one
is controlling the sector ….there is no credible environmental authority.”

77. The oil industry is betting its survival on gas,
with US shale as a centerpiece

78. The O&G industry is trying to rebrand itself as a
clean energy industry based on natural gas vs coal
7th Jan
2016
9th Jun
2015
World gas conference, 2015

79. Oil and Gas Climate Initiative: 10 CEOs …majoring on
oil companies morphing to gas companies
7th Jan
2016
16th Oct
2015

80. 7th Jan
2016
16th Aug
2017
“Shell takes $14bn gas gamble with world’s biggest
floating structure”
Floating Liquified Natural Gas vessel Prelude
Length 488 metres

81. 7th Jan
2016
20th June
2016
Shell puts revamped shale arm
at heart of future growth strategy

82. 7th Jan
2016
7th Jan
2018
Growth of Shell’s oil and gas operations in the next
decade will depend on shale production: CEO
With “a little bit of help from the oil price going up, we now see that we
can significantly accelerate investment into this opportunity.”

83. Shell to bet billions on US shale by bidding for
retreating loss maker BHP's shale division
7th Jan
2016
8th Mar
2018
The Charge of The Light Brigade
A $10 billion offer, jointly with US private equity group Blackstone.

84. 7th Jan
2016
1st Aug
2013 Shell writes off $2 billion in shale
The idea of a shale revolution spreading from the US across the world
is “a little bit overhyped,” says CEO Peter Voser.

85. 7th Jan
2016
3rd Oct
2016
“Big oil should exercise capital discipline as prices
rise” …& appoint a Head of Memory
So says Paul Spedding, ex Global Co-Head of Oil And Gas Research
at HSBC, now an advisor to Carbon Tracker

86. Beating Shell and Chevron to the 4.5 billion barrels of oil-equivalent
resources, BP CEO Bob Dudley calls it a “transformational acquisition.”
7th Jan
2016
26th July
2018
BP heads into US shale oil and gas by buying BHP's
assets - up for sale nearly a year - for $10.5bn

87. 7th Jan
2016
12th Feb
2017
“Oil and gas discoveries dry up to lowest total
for 60 years”
174 discoveries totaling only 8.2 bb oil and gas equivalent in 2016. This
dismal record pressures oil majors to seek quick wins in US shale.

88. 7th Jan
2016
31st Oct
2017
Gas firms spend €104m on lobbying in 2016
to keep Europe hooked on fossil fuel
30x more than groups lobbying for a fossil-fuel-free future.
460 meetings with just two relevant EU Commissioners in 2.5 years.

89. With one exception, it looks as though
the rest of the world fears the downsides of shale
enough not try and copy the Americans

90. 7th Jan
2016
2nd June
2016 Scottish parliament bans fracking

91. 7th Jan
2016
24th June
2016 Germany bans fracking

92. 7th Jan
2016
30th Aug
2016
Victoria becomes first Australian state to
permanently ban fracking and coal seam gas
“It is clear that the Victorian community has spoken. They simply don’t
support fracking”: State government spokesperson

93. France bans fracking and oil extraction
in all of its territories
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2017
• President Macron says
he wants to lead the
world in race for
renewables
• Lawmakers hope the ban
will be “contagious”

94. New Zealand bans future offshore oil and gas
drilling in support of Paris targets
7th Jan
2016
12th Apr
2018
NZ currently has 5 operating offshore fields, and 22 active offshore
exploration licences. Oil lobby expresses surprise and disappointment.

95. 7th Jan
2016
9th Nov
2016
Monterey county, a significant drilling target, votes
to ban fracking despite oil industry lobbying blitz

96. The exception is England, a country with a
government seemingly intent on allowing
the fracking of shale at any cost

97. 7th Jan
2016
Dec
2012
US shale drillers hit hurdles going international
UK backs gas including domestic shale

98. “Vast areas” of southern England “discovered”
to hold “billions of barrels” of oil in shale
7th Jan
2016
23rd May
2014

99. A single pre-frack exploration well drilled by
Caudrilla at Balcombe in Sussex faces huge protests
7th Jan
2016
Aug
2014

100. UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate:
“Our country needs shale gas, so let’s go get it”
7th Jan
2016
9th Aug
2015
Amber Rudd: “A responsible, long-term energy policy demands a
willingness to take decisions today for the good of tomorrow.”

101. “Britain's shale fracking revolution comes
with big risks”
7th Jan
2016
18th Aug
2015
Andrew Critchlow: “Get it wrong and fracking in Britain…will become
too politically toxic for any future government to consider. “
There would be rather a lot of these
on English country lanes, carrying water,
sand, and toxic frack fluids in to well pads,
and waste fluid plus (maybe) oil and gas out

102. Fracking gets go-ahead in UK for first time since
2011, despite 4,000 objections to planning enquiry
7th Jan
2016
23rd May
2016
FT Lex: “The cult following still believes that fracking in the UK could be
profitable. Investors should allow market forces to finally kill it off.”

103. 7th Jan
2016
8th Aug
2016
UK shale: “All households near fracking sites
set to get money paid straight into banks”

104. 7th Jan
2016
27th Oct
2016
Latest UK poll suggests only 17% support fracking
(while 79% support renewables)
These companies are joined by the Conservative government in running
the gauntlet of such huge public opposition, which must be multi-party.

105. 7th Jan
2016
13th Feb
2018
UK government accused of dishonesty
in regulation of fracking by eminent geophysicist
Prof David Smythe: risk in fault leakage covered up, & definitions of
“conventional” & water volume bent to misclassify fracked wells.

106. Ineos shale drilling application rejected: that makes
7 out of 8 shale drilling plans rejected in 2018
7th Jan
2016
8th Mar
2018
It now takes on average 58 weeks to (maybe) get a planning decision
on the drilling of a vertical well, up from 13 weeks 5 years ago.

107. UK's first horizontal well completed
in Lancashire shale, Caudrilla reports
7th Jan
2016
3rd Apr
2018
The driller now waits for government approval to conduct what would
be the first frack since 2011. (The one that led to an earthquake).

108. 7th Jan
2016
19th July
2018
…and no payments for solar electricity exports – a huge blow to the
homeowner and community solar that competes with shale gas.
HMG proposes, on the same day, no need for
frackers to seek planning permission henceforth….

109. Cuadrilla given the go-ahead to start fracking in
Lancashire by energy minister
7th Jan
2016
24th July
2018
Claire Perry: “Our world-class regulations will ensure that shale
exploration will maintain robust environmental standards and meet the
expectations of local communities.”
be derided

110. Letter to O&G companies: major hydrocarbon releases “remain a
concern because of their greater potential to lead to fires, explosions
and multiple losses of life. There have been several such releases in
recent years that have come perilously close to disaster.”
Offshore UK OGI “perilously close to disasters” as a
result of neglected gas leakage, HSE warns
7th Jan
2016
26th Apr
2018

111. The Air Quality Expert Group (AQEG) report is eventually quietly
published 3 days after Caudrilla gets clearance to frack in Lancashire.
7th Jan
2016
2nd Aug
2018
Report finding that fracking increases air pollution
buried for 3 years by UK government
40,000 premature deaths a year linked to air pollution
HMG has just decided its OK for that figure to be higher

112. University of London cardiologists find exposure to nitrogen dioxide and
PM2.5 and PM10 particles linked to an increase in the size of ventricles.
7th Jan
2016
3rd Aug
2018
Air pollution linked to changes in structure of the
heart of the sort seen in early stages of heart failure

113. The latest survey had only 16% in support. The first fracking for seven
years is due to start in a few weeks. HMG says the Q will be back in 2019.
7th Jan
2016
16th Aug
2018
UK government drops the question about fracking
from their regular public-attitude survey on energy

114. UK local government pension funds invest £9bn in
fracking companies ….including Lancashire County
7th Jan
2016
2nd Sep
2018
Dumfries and Galloway Council: “non-financial factors should not drive
the investment process at the cost of financial return.”
Emma Thompson on
a UK fracking protest

115. UK government blocks oil drilling at Surrey Hills site,
citing impact on woodland and water
7th Jan
2016
4th Sep
2018
DEFRA: “The nation’s woods and forests are cherished natural assets
and we want to ensure they are protected now and into the future.”

116. Two directors quit UK fracking firm as Tory MPs tell
of a rebellion in their ranks on planning for fracking
7th Jan
2016
18th Sep
2018
Third Energy is / was due to frack in Yorkshire, subject to government
checks on its financial health. Meanwhile around 20 Tory MPs plan to
vote against fast-tracking planning for fracking, according to reports.

117. And there is no reason to expect the
economics of shale drilling in the UK
to be any less disastrous than in the US
In fact, drilling costs should be higher in the
UK, because we have “world class regulations”
and the Americans have virtually none
under a Trump EPA
Plus….

118. Subsidy-free renewable energy projects set to soar
in UK, analysts say, largely killing off new gas plants
7th Jan
2016
20th Mar
2018
Aurora Energy Research: Onshore wind and solar both viable without
subsidies by 2025, unlocking £20bn of investment by 2030.
Solarcentury roof for Sainsbury

119. Offshore wind will provide most of the growth from 2017 to 2025, WWF
suggest, but HMG could & should also use onshore wind and solar.
UK on track to phase-out coal by 2025 without the
need for any new large gas plants: WWF report
7th Jan
2016
13th May
2018
Masayoshi Son, Softbank founder and CEO

120. But nonetheless…..

121. 7th Jan
2016
14th Oct
2018
Fracking allowed once again in UK after 7 year
abeyance following failure of last minute injunction
Claire Perry,
Energy Minister:
Environmentalists
who oppose
fracking are
peddling “wild
myths”

122. Some conclusions

123. In the USA, the sadly numerous
real-life oil-train wrecks are an
allegory for the entire shale
story: the debt mountain
means this train is going
to come off the tracks

124. It’s impossible
to foresee when
…but unlikely to
be more than
a few years

125. In the UK, the train is most
unlikely to make it properly on to
the tracks: polls, disruption, and
mad economics suggest that too
many conservative rural voters
will be prepared to fight very
hard indeed to stop it happening

126. In the UK, the train is most
unlikely to make it properly
onto the tracks: too many rural
Conservative voters will be
prepared to die in a ditch to
stop it happening
The energy-policy, economic,
environmental and societal
implications of these conclusions
will be examined further in
forthcoming blog-slideshows on
the Future Today website:
www.jeremyleggett.net