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The New HPC
HPC and AI Advisory Council, February 2019
Addison Snell
addison@intersect360.com
Traditional Supercomputing
All images from Barcelona Supercomputing Center website, http://www.bsc.es
Extending Commercial HPC
The New HPC
Hyperscale Market in 2017
• Grew 25% Y/Y to $44B ($35B in 2016)
• Consolidating further into Tier 1
– Orgs spending over $1B/year on IT
– Nine Tier 1 companies in 2017
• Eight in 2016
• One more just missed in 2017
• Market is through its original major expansion,
now entering consolidation phase
AI / Deep Learning / Machine Learning
• Roughly $4.5 Billion dedicated to machine learning in
2017; 95% comes from Hyperscale
• Within HPC, most advanced use cases are in finance
• We are monitoring spending patterns
– Are budgets increasing?
– What is the effect on configurations?
– On premise versus cloud
• 56% of HPC organizations are running machine learning
– Usually with same hardware as HPC
– Often with changes to configuration, particularly with GPUs
– Little effect on overall budgets compared to what was planned
– To the extent that it is done as part of an HPC environment, it is
already counted in our numbers
Report: Machine Learning’s Impact on HPC
Use of Machine Learning at HPC Sites
HPC 2017 vs. 2016
2016 2017
$35.4 B$34.8 B
Other Other
$1.1B
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total
Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services
HPC Forecast: Products and Services
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Other
Cloud
Networks
Software
Services
Storage
Servers
($000)
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total
Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services
Budget outlooks have improved,
especially in government sector
HPC User Budget Map: Budget Outlooks
HPC Server Classes
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2016 2017
Supercomputers (> $1.5M)
High-End ($250K to $1.5M)
Midrange ($50K to $250K)
Entry Level (< $50K)
Highest
growth
Lowest
growth
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total
Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: HPC Server Class
HPC Server Shares, 2017
HPE
Dell
Lenovo
IBM
Atos/Bull
Cray
Inspur
Fujitsu
Huawei
Penguin
Others
Grew faster
than market
Grew along
with market
Grew slower
than market
Declined
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total
Market Model: HPC Server Revenue Shares
Site Census Survey:
Top Named System Suppliers
AWS is the top named cloud vendor, 1.5%
Dell EMC
NetApp
HPE
IBM
HDS
DDN
Atos/Bull
Panasas
Fujitsu
Others
HPC Storage Shares, 2017
Grew faster
than market
Grew along
with market
Grew slower
than market
Declined
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total
Market Model: HPC Storage Revenue Shares
Site Census Survey:
Top Named Storage Suppliers
AWS is the top named cloud vendor, 4.4%
Academic/Not-for-profit:
National security
National research lab
National agency
State or local government
Financial ServicesLarge product
manufacturing
Bio-sciences
Energy
Consumer product
manufacturing
Retail
Chemical
Electronics
Media & Entertainment Transportation Other
commercial
Who Uses HPC
(HPC 2017 Spending by Vertical Market)
Academic,
17.7%
Government,
25.7%
Commercial,
56.6%
Academic/Not-for-profit:
National security
National research lab
National agency
State or local government
Financial ServicesLarge product
manufacturing
Bio-sciences
Energy
Consumer product
manufacturing
Retail
Chemical
Electronics
Media & Entertainment Transportation Other
commercial
Who Uses HPC
(HPC 2017 Spending by Vertical Market)
Academic,
17.7%
Government,
25.7%
Commercial,
56.6%
System Interconnects
by Year Last Modified
• By year last modified, InfiniBand continues to be the most frequently
installed system interconnect. Ethernet 10G or faster and Omni-Path
installations are growing faster than InfiniBand installations.
• For the highest performance system interconnects, Omni-Path captured
some of the Ethernet 100G business.
• Up to two unique system interconnects were allowed per system. The same
interconnect type is only counted once per system.
The Highest Performance System Interconnect
Types
System Interconnect Types, Total Sites
Top Interconnects/Network Suppliers
• In all locales, two vendors account for over 50% of the mentions, with Mellanox
being the only top supplier in all three locales. Entries not specifying supplier were
not included in total.
• Compared to 2017 Total Sites share of mentions:
• Mellanox gained 1% share for storage networks. In other locales, Mellanox’s
share remained the same as last year.
• Cisco Systems gained 2% share for storage network and 1% share for LANs.
• Intel gained 3% share in system interconnects for Omni-Path.
Top System Interconnect Suppliers Top Storage Network Suppliers Top LAN Suppliers
• Three-fourths of applications reported were Open Source or ISV
software (generally-available applications).
• Top applications are primarily used for traditional HPC application –
chemistry, fluid dynamics, structural analysis, and weather
forecasting.
Top Generally-Available Applications
A Look Ahead to 2019
• Early indicators suggest strong growth
• AI-augmented HPC begins to take shape
• Processor wars will be fought in software
– Critical tests for ARM
– Welcome back, AMD!
• Storage tiers proliferate
• Battle to possess data intensifies
• Acquisition targets:
– Cloud managed services for AWS
– Middleware expertise
The New HPC
HPC and AI Advisory Council, February 2019
Addison Snell
addison@intersect360.com

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The New HPC

  • 1. The New HPC HPC and AI Advisory Council, February 2019 Addison Snell addison@intersect360.com
  • 2. Traditional Supercomputing All images from Barcelona Supercomputing Center website, http://www.bsc.es
  • 5. Hyperscale Market in 2017 • Grew 25% Y/Y to $44B ($35B in 2016) • Consolidating further into Tier 1 – Orgs spending over $1B/year on IT – Nine Tier 1 companies in 2017 • Eight in 2016 • One more just missed in 2017 • Market is through its original major expansion, now entering consolidation phase
  • 6. AI / Deep Learning / Machine Learning • Roughly $4.5 Billion dedicated to machine learning in 2017; 95% comes from Hyperscale • Within HPC, most advanced use cases are in finance • We are monitoring spending patterns – Are budgets increasing? – What is the effect on configurations? – On premise versus cloud • 56% of HPC organizations are running machine learning – Usually with same hardware as HPC – Often with changes to configuration, particularly with GPUs – Little effect on overall budgets compared to what was planned – To the extent that it is done as part of an HPC environment, it is already counted in our numbers Report: Machine Learning’s Impact on HPC
  • 7. Use of Machine Learning at HPC Sites
  • 8. HPC 2017 vs. 2016 2016 2017 $35.4 B$34.8 B Other Other $1.1B Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services
  • 9. HPC Forecast: Products and Services - 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000 50,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Other Cloud Networks Software Services Storage Servers ($000) Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services Budget outlooks have improved, especially in government sector HPC User Budget Map: Budget Outlooks
  • 10. HPC Server Classes - 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 2016 2017 Supercomputers (> $1.5M) High-End ($250K to $1.5M) Midrange ($50K to $250K) Entry Level (< $50K) Highest growth Lowest growth Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: HPC Server Class
  • 11. HPC Server Shares, 2017 HPE Dell Lenovo IBM Atos/Bull Cray Inspur Fujitsu Huawei Penguin Others Grew faster than market Grew along with market Grew slower than market Declined Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model: HPC Server Revenue Shares
  • 12. Site Census Survey: Top Named System Suppliers AWS is the top named cloud vendor, 1.5%
  • 13. Dell EMC NetApp HPE IBM HDS DDN Atos/Bull Panasas Fujitsu Others HPC Storage Shares, 2017 Grew faster than market Grew along with market Grew slower than market Declined Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model: HPC Storage Revenue Shares
  • 14. Site Census Survey: Top Named Storage Suppliers AWS is the top named cloud vendor, 4.4%
  • 15. Academic/Not-for-profit: National security National research lab National agency State or local government Financial ServicesLarge product manufacturing Bio-sciences Energy Consumer product manufacturing Retail Chemical Electronics Media & Entertainment Transportation Other commercial Who Uses HPC (HPC 2017 Spending by Vertical Market) Academic, 17.7% Government, 25.7% Commercial, 56.6%
  • 16. Academic/Not-for-profit: National security National research lab National agency State or local government Financial ServicesLarge product manufacturing Bio-sciences Energy Consumer product manufacturing Retail Chemical Electronics Media & Entertainment Transportation Other commercial Who Uses HPC (HPC 2017 Spending by Vertical Market) Academic, 17.7% Government, 25.7% Commercial, 56.6%
  • 17. System Interconnects by Year Last Modified • By year last modified, InfiniBand continues to be the most frequently installed system interconnect. Ethernet 10G or faster and Omni-Path installations are growing faster than InfiniBand installations. • For the highest performance system interconnects, Omni-Path captured some of the Ethernet 100G business. • Up to two unique system interconnects were allowed per system. The same interconnect type is only counted once per system. The Highest Performance System Interconnect Types System Interconnect Types, Total Sites
  • 18. Top Interconnects/Network Suppliers • In all locales, two vendors account for over 50% of the mentions, with Mellanox being the only top supplier in all three locales. Entries not specifying supplier were not included in total. • Compared to 2017 Total Sites share of mentions: • Mellanox gained 1% share for storage networks. In other locales, Mellanox’s share remained the same as last year. • Cisco Systems gained 2% share for storage network and 1% share for LANs. • Intel gained 3% share in system interconnects for Omni-Path. Top System Interconnect Suppliers Top Storage Network Suppliers Top LAN Suppliers
  • 19. • Three-fourths of applications reported were Open Source or ISV software (generally-available applications). • Top applications are primarily used for traditional HPC application – chemistry, fluid dynamics, structural analysis, and weather forecasting. Top Generally-Available Applications
  • 20. A Look Ahead to 2019 • Early indicators suggest strong growth • AI-augmented HPC begins to take shape • Processor wars will be fought in software – Critical tests for ARM – Welcome back, AMD! • Storage tiers proliferate • Battle to possess data intensifies • Acquisition targets: – Cloud managed services for AWS – Middleware expertise
  • 21. The New HPC HPC and AI Advisory Council, February 2019 Addison Snell addison@intersect360.com