The document summarizes trends in the worldwide high performance computing (HPC) market from 2016-2021. It finds that the HPC market grew to $11.2 billion in 2016, with supercomputers over $500k growing the most. The top vendors in 2016 were HPE, Dell, IBM, Cray, and Lenovo. The document forecasts continued growth in the broader HPC market reaching over $30 billion by 2021. It also forecasts growth in HPC-based machine learning, deep learning, and AI, with that market reaching $6.6 billion by 2021. The document concludes that while HPC provides very high returns on investment, software and storage access remain major challenges for customers.

1. Trends in the
Worldwide HPC Market
September 2017
Earl Joseph, Steve Conway,
Bob Sorensen and Mike Thorp

2. Hyperion HPC Activities – Same As Before!
• Track all HPC servers sold each quarter
• 4 HPC User Forum meetings each year
• Publish 85 plus research reports each year
• Visit all major supercomputer sites & write reports
• Assist in collaborations between buyers/users and vendors
• Assist governments in HPC plans, strategies and direction
• Assist buyers/users in planning and procurements
• Maintain 5 year forecasts in many areas/topics
• Developing a worldwide ROI measurement system
• HPDA program (includes ML/DL/AI)
• HPC Cloud usage tracking
• Quarterly tracking of GPUs/accelerators
• Cyber Security

3. Hyperion Research Overview
§ We are fully separated from IDC & Oceanwide
• An IT purge has removed our work & info from IDC
records
§ All IDC HPC assets, reports, data, etc. have
been transferred to Hyperion
• Access to non-HPC data from IDC is also included
§ Hyperion is tasked to keep doing 100% of what
the IDC HPC team was doing before
• Plus we can add new areas

4. Worldwide
HPC Market Results
And Growth Projections
4

5. The Worldwide HPC Server Market:
$11.2 Billion in 2016
5
Departmental
($250K - $100K)
$3.1B
Divisional
($250K - $500K)
$2.3B
Supercomputers
(Over $500K)
$4.1B Workgroup
(under $100K)
$1.7B
HPC
Servers
$11.2B
§ Record revenues
§ Strong $250K+ growth
§ Low-end decline

6. 2016 HPC Market By Vendor ($ Millions)
© Hyperion Research 6

7. 2016 HPC Market By Vertical ($ Millions)
© Hyperion Research 7

8. 2016 HPC Market Forecasts ($ Millions)
© Hyperion Research 8

9. Forecast: The Broader HPC Market
($ Millions)
9©Hyperion Research 2017

10. 10
New HPC
Storage Market
Results

11. Hyperion Research Forecast:
HPC and External Storage
§ The worldwide HPC broader market
(servers, storage, software, and repair
services) will expand (6.2% CAGR) to more
than $30 billion in 2021, up from $22 billion
in 2016.
§ External HPC storage will grow from
$4.3 billion in 2016 to $6.3 billion in 2021
(7.8% CAGR).
Note: External HPC storage refers to storage
located outside of the server cabinets and can
include solid-state, disk, and tape media.
© Hyperion Research 2017 11

12. HPC Storage Market Growth Drivers
■ Modeling & simulation – organic growth:
• More/bigger runs on increasingly powerful HPC
systems
• Growth of iterative methods (parametric modeling,
stochastic modeling, ensembles)
• New HPC adopters for M&S (e.g., SMEs)
§ High performance data analysis (including ML/
DL/AI)
• Existing users adding analytics methods
• New commercial users “hitting a wall” with enterprise
server technology
• New use cases
■ HPC-in-the-cloud (private, hybrid, public)
© Hyperion Research 2017 12

13. © Hyperion Research 2017 13
HPC External Storage by Vertical

14. HPC External Storage by Region
© Hyperion Research 2017 14

15. 15
Forecast: HPC-based
Machine Learning,
Deep Learning & AI

16. Convergence of HPC Data-Intensive Simulation and
Analytics (High Performance Data Analysis)
Modeling & Simulation
§ Existing HPC users
• Larger problem sizes
• Higher resolution
• Iterative methods
• EP jobs to the cloud
(Novartis)
§ New commercial users
• E.g., SMEs
16
Advanced Analytics
§ Existing HPC users
• Intelligence community, FSI
• Data-driven science/
engineering (e.g., biology)
• Knowledge discovery
• ML/DL, cognitive, AI
§ New commercial users
• Fraud/anomaly detection
• Business intelligence
• Affinity marketing
• Personalized medicine
©Hyperion Research 2017
Drivers:
• Competition
• Complexity
• Time
Convergence
Market (2021)
$4.0B servers
$2.6B storage
$6.6B total

17. HPDA Analytics New HPC Segments
1. Fraud and anomaly detection.
§ Government (intelligence, cyber security)
§ Industry (credit card fraud, cyber security)
2. Affinity Marketing.
§ Discern potential customers' demographics, buying preferences
and habits.
3. Business intelligence.
§ Identify opportunities to advance market position and
competitiveness
4. Precision Medicine
§ Personalized approach to improve outcomes, control costs
17©Hyperion Research 2017

18. HPDA As a % of Total HPC Utilization
(All Systems)
18©Hyperion Research 2017

19. Where HPDA Workloads Are Run
19©Hyperion Research 2017

20. AI: Machine Learning, Deep Learning
20©Hyperion Research 2017
§ Artificial Intelligence (AI): a broad, general term for the ability of
computers to do things human thinking does (but NOT to think in
the same way humans think). AI includes machine learning, deep
learning (a.k.a. cognitive computing) and more minor
methodologies.
§ Machine learning (ML): a process where examples are used to
train computers to recognize specified patterns, such as
human blue eyes or numerical patterns indicating fraud. The
computers are unable to learn beyond their training and human
oversight is needed in the recognition process.
§ Deep Learning (DL): an advanced form of machine learning that
uses digital neural networks to enable a computer to go beyond its
training and learn on its own, without explicit programming or
human oversight.

21. AI/Deep Learning Formative Market
MARKET STATUS
§ HPC has moved to the forefront of DL/AI
research
§ Ecosystem (including GPGPUs) formed
around social media/Web giants
§ DL needs massive data: not available yet
in many markets
§ Lack of standard benchmarks lengthens
sales process
§ Need for transparency HPC simulation!
§ Lots of time/money being spent to get
there
21© Hyperion Research 2017
“The amount of data
available today is
miniscule compared
to what we need for
deep learning.”
Marti Head,
GlaxoSmithKline

22. Forecast:
HPDA Market and ML/DL/AI Methods
22

23. WW M/L, D/L, & AI Forecasts
© Hyperion Research 2017 23

24. U.S. M/L, D/L, & AI Forecasts
© Hyperion Research 2017 24

25. 25
In
Summary

26. HPC ROI
Latest Findings: ROI from HPC is Very High
Results indicate high ROI returns resulting from
investments in HPC
On average, from the latest data:
§ $551 dollars on average in revenue per dollar of
HPC invested.
§ $52 dollars on average of profits (or cost savings)
per dollar of HPC invested.
26©Hyperion Research 2017
Extreme Example:
• In Oil/Gas
• Maximizing oil reservoir
production
• Profit ROI = $3.75 billion
Extreme Example:
• In Finance
• HPC driven underwriting of
insurance quotes
• Revenue ROI = $11.6billion

27. Download Results: www.hpcuserforum.com/ROI
27

28. § HPC is still expected to be a growth market
• Growing recognition of HPC’s strategic value
• HPDA, including ML/DL, cognitive and AI
• HPC in the Cloud will lift the sector writ large
§ Vendor share positions shifted greatly in
2015 & 2016 and continue to shift
• E.g., HPE acquisition of SGI
§ The HPDA market will expand opportunities
for vendors
Conclusions
28©Hyperion Research 2017

29. But There are Still Major Customer
Pain Points
Software is the #1 roadblock
• Better management software is needed
• Parallel software is lacking for most users à Many applications
will need a major redesign
Storage access time is becoming the #2 pain
point
• Areal density has improved much faster than access density
Clusters are still hard to use and manage
• System management & growing cluster complexity
• Power, cooling and floor space are major issues
• Storage and data management are becoming new bottle necks
• Lack of support for heterogeneous environment and accelerators
… Some good news in that there are new technologies
in Big data, accelerators, clouds, etc.
29©Hyperion Research 2017

30. QUESTIONS?
www.hpcuserforum.com 30
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