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THE MOGUL’S GUIDE TO TMT
HELLO TECH, MEDIA, & TELECOM, MEET THE FUTURE
Joseph Mathew | J.D./M.B.A. University of Virginia
josephmathew10@gmail.com | (706) 255-9793
September 15, 2013
Executive Level
TABLE OF CONTENTS
2
Black Box Breach
DragonRex 11
IceDragon 19
Investors Only 25
Empire Building 27
Appendix I: IceDragon Perspectives Analysis 41
Appendix II: Media Industry General Overview 44
Overview 3
6
3
OVERVIEW
THE MOGUL’S GUIDE: OVERVIEW
 This guide is intended as a chart for intelligent media and technology chief
executives
o To be used in navigating the dark and choppy waters of the future
 And also presents a few potential blueprints for significant market
opportunities for those executives as well as investors
4
THE MOGUL’S GUIDE: SECTIONS
 Black Box Breach
o Paints the picture of the future living room
 Provides key insights necessary in developing your company’s
comprehensive strategy for the next decade
 DragonRex
o Articulates the devices that will own the living room of the future
 IceDragon
o Furnishes a missing piece in the advertising technology arsenal for media
firms readying themselves for home entertainment dominated by the
internet
 Panthera
o Global news gateway
 Empire Building
o Crystallizes and expands the franchise monetization model developed by
The Walt Disney Company
5
6
BLACK BOX BREACH
BLACK BOX BREACH EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
 Thesis
o The contest over the future of your living room will be won, in the near
future, in decisive fashion
 By hardware, content, and services infused with the internet
throughout their D.N.A.
 Rationale
o As Millennials’ & Emerging Markets’ voracious appetites for streaming
video steadily increases,
o Telecommunications providers will eventually meet that need,
 Creating a virtuous spiral for online media service creators and
facilitators
7
SUPPORTING DATA
 Internet data consumption skyrockets
o Netflix accounts for about 1/3rd of peak period downstream traffic in North
America, while YouTube eats up 1/5th of mobile network traffic1
 Jet speed internet approaches for landing
o Google Fiber is turning up the pressure on entrenched internet providers
o An Alcatel-Lucent and France Télécom-Orange test in February 2013
clocking speeds at a smoldering 400 gigabits-per-second2
 Troublesome youth
o Only 26% of Millennials watch more than 20 hours of television per week,
 While 49% of non-Millennials do so
o 42% of Millennials prefer to consume television content through their
computer through services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime, and Hulu,
 While only 18% of non-Millennials prefer the same3
 Emerging market viewers’ aversion to cable
o Viewers in Brazil and China prefer online video to television4
8
RAMIFICATIONS
 Crown the internet
o The average future living room, within two decades, will revolve entirely
around the internet
 Go global or go home
o Global brands will completely dominate mere domestic players
 À la carte is the future
o The available apps, of which there will be hundreds or even thousands,
will each represent branded channels and services
 Deploy capital accordingly
o Former cash flow generators will depreciate faster than forecast
 Television stations
 Cable distribution
 Satellite distribution
o Certain properties may be undervalued
 Regional wireless communications providers
 Entertainment intellectual property owners and generators
9
SOURCES
1. Sandvine Global Report: Internet Data Usage Up 120 Percent In North America, Sandvine (April 30, 2013),
http://www.sandvine.com/news/pr_detail.asp?ID=394.
2. Bernhard Warner, Alcatel-Lucent Unveils World's Most Powerful Broadband Infrastructure, Bloomberg Businessweek (April 30,
2013), http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-15/alcatel-lucent-unveils-worlds-most-powerful-broadband-infrastructure.
3. Christine Barton, Chris Egan, Jeff Fromm, The Millennial Consumer Debunking Stereotypes, The Boston Consulting Group (April
30, 2013). http://www.brandchannel.com/images/papers/536_BCG_The_Millennial_Consumer_Apr_2012%20(3)_tcm80-
103894.pdf.
4. Sam Gutelle, China and Brazil Leading Global Expansion Of Online Video, tubefilter (August 12, 2013),
http://www.tubefilter.com/2013/07/02/edelman-study-entertainment-goes-global/#sthash.W826Wx6W.dpuf.
10
11
DRAGONREX
WHAT DEVICES WILL RULE THIS FUTURE LIVING ROOM?
 DragonRex: Media Dream Machine
o XBox One/PS4 + Smart TV – Cable/Satellite Input + Necessity
Programming (for the Millennial viewer)
 = DragonRex
 = Media Portal
o Services
 A Media & Entertainment Portal
 Gaming, Movies, Channels (News/Live Events/Episodes), Indie
 Headsets/Glasses
o Virtual Reality (VR)
 Oculus Rift
o Augmented Reality (AR)
 Google Glass
o VR + AR
 Microsoft’s Fortaleza
12
DRAGONREX OVERVIEW: PHASE I
 DragonRex specs
o Ram - 32 GB, CPU Cores/Threads - 32/32, Storage - 2 TB, Motion
Control - Leap Motion, OS - Android, Data -
Ethernet/WiFi/Bluetooth/HDMI Audio Output, Dimensions - 65”
Diagonal/4 mm Edge, Design - Ellipse
 Millennial Necessity Programming à la carte (MNP)
o ESPN
 Leverage - Fox Sports One, Tennis Channel, Golf Channel, MLB
Network, NFL Network, NHL Network, NBA TV…
o HBO GO (minus the cable subscription)
 Leverage - Netflix, Prime, Showtime, DreamWorks Animation…
o Netflix &/or Amazon Prime
 Gaming beast
o EA, Activision Blizzard, Rockstar Games, Valve, Ubisoft…
 Leverage - Zynga, Gree, DeNA, Rovio, King…
 Movies/Channels/Indie
o Streaming (Netflix, Prime, Hulu, Crackle, YouTube…)
o Download (Hard Disk, IceDragon)
13
DRAGONREX MEDIA NEGOTIATIONS: SECRET SAUCE
 What do the major media players want?
o Disney/Time Warner/21st Century Fox/Viacom desperately want 24/7
branded channels in China
 What does the Chinese government want?
o Their own Disney/Time Warner/21st Century Fox
 Multiple media empires originating from China1
 What will DragonRex have?
o A media portal built specifically for the needs of emerging markets
 Global
 Internet based
 Zero barriers to entry for channel distribution
14
DRAGONREX MEDIA NEGOTIATING: PROPOSED DEAL
 The major media players allow their content and apps on the DragonRex
platform
 In exchange, the Chinese government allows those players access to their
market via the DragonRex platform
 In exchange, DragonRex grants China’s emerging media firms (Xinhua
News Agency, CCTV, Oriental DreamWorks…) Most Favored Channel
status
o Prioritized placement on home screens
o Advertising
o Global audience
o Advisory
15
CHINA
DRAGONREXMEDIA FIRMS
à la carte premium content
access to emerging markets &
millennials
HEADSETS/GLASSES INITIAL KILLER MARKETS
 AR
o Transport (Driving, Shipping, Aviation)
o Military combat
 360° vision+
• 360° cameras
• Drones+
• Satellites+
• Military intel+
• Unit, division, company intel+
• Orders+
 VR
o Hardcore gaming
o Sports programming
o Military training
16
 VR + AR
o Sports programming
o General gaming
o Shopping
o Social interactions…
DRAGONREX & VR + AR GLASSES:
THE FUTURE OF SPORTS PROGRAMMING
 DRAGONREX
o Traditional live sports displayed through the main media portal at the
center of the living room
 VR + AR Glasses
o VR
 Displays multiple additional angles of the action
• Premium subscription potential
o AR
 Displays additional data
• Commanded by voice, gesture, and device
• On players, teams, and plays
• Based on recognition of images displayed on the DragonRex
portal
17
SOURCES
1. Joseph Mathew, Go For Launch: Disney’s Recipe For Successfully Piercing The Media Veil In China, (August 13, 2013),
http://www.slideshare.net/codycostarica/disney-china-media-memo-joseph-mathew.
18
19
ICEDRAGON
ADVERTISING SOLUTION TO FILL A GAP IN ONLINE MEDIA
20
CONSUMER
PRODUCT
COMPANIES
CONTENT
ADVERTISING
AGENCIES
MEDIA FIRMS
DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL
DRAGONREX
CONSUMERS
ICEDRAGON
ICEDRAGON OVERVIEW
21
CONSUMER
ICEDRAGON
CLOUD
(Utilizing AWS)
A. Consumer Inputs Data (age/sex/etc. with fewer ads per data)
B. Consumer Provides Ad Feedback (up/down votes, rankings, written)
IceDragon Package Delivered (Ads+Containers+Content)
AdUpdates
AD
AD
CONTENT
AD
CONTENT
ADCONTAINER
Ads Segmented
By Demographic
AD AGENCIES &
CONSUMER PRODUCT COMPANIES
Ad
Updates
IceDragon Proprietary
Binding Tech
DISTRIBUTION
CHANNELS
ICEDRAGON CONCEPT
INTERNET
DOWNLOAD
KEY
Hierarchy Of Importance
To Millennials
TIER I = HIGH
TIER II = MEDIUM
TIER III = LOW
22
MEDIA CONTENT LANDSCAPE
MILLENIAL CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE
HIGH PRICE
INFLEXIBLE TIMING
DIGITAL VIDEO
RECORDERS
VIDEO ON
DEMAND
LOW PRICE TIER I
FLEXIBLE TIMING
TIER I
HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY
LOW QUALITY
HIGH QUALITY
TIER II
TIER II
CABLE
NETWORKS
SATELLITE
HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY
LOW QUALITY
HIGH QUALITY
HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY
LOW QUALITY
HIGH QUALITY
HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY
LOW QUALITY
HIGH QUALITY
DVD/BLU RAY
HIGH ADVERTISING
LOW ADVERTISING
HIGH OWNERSHIPLOW OWNERSHIP
TIER III
TIER III
ICEDRAGON
HIGH ADVERTISING
LOW ADVERTISING
HIGH OWNERSHIPLOW OWNERSHIP
INTERNET
STREAMING
MEDIA
PLAYERS
23
CONTENT VALUE CHAIN
OLD BRAND NEW
LOW PRODUCTION VALUE
HIGH PRODUCTION VALUE
NETWORK SERIES
BRAND NEW
CABLE SERIES
BRAND NEW
YOUTUBE
INDIVIDUAL VIDEOS
BRAND NEW
SHORT MOVIES
BRAND NEW
YOUTUBE
CHANNEL VIDEOS
BRAND NEW
FEATURE FILMS
BRAND NEW
ICEDRAGON APP
SWEET SPOT
NETWORK SERIES
RECENTLY AIRED
CABLE SERIES
RECENTLY AIRED
YOUTUBE
INDIVIDUAL VIDEOS
RECENT RELEASE
SHORT MOVIES
RECENT RELEASE
YOUTUBE
CHANNEL VIDEOS
RECENT RELEASE
FEATURE FILMS
POST-DVD RELEASE
NETWORK SERIES
POPULAR SERIES
CABLE SERIES
POPULAR SERIES
YOUTUBE
INDIVIDUAL VIDEOS
OLD
SHORT MOVIES
OLD
YOUTUBE
CHANNEL VIDEOS
OLD
FEATURE FILMS
CLASSICS
POPULAR MUSIC
BRAND NEW
POPULAR MUSIC
RECENT RELEASE
POPULAR MUSIC
OLD
AMATEUR MUSIC
BRAND NEW
AMATEUR MUSIC
RECENT RELEASE
AMATEUR MUSIC
OLD
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
ICEDRAGON BUSINESS MODEL
24
CONSUMER
PRODUCT
COMPANIES
CONTENT
ADVERTISING
AGENCIES
MEDIA FIRMS
ICEDRAGON
$ UP FRONT
FEES TO BIND ADS
$ FEE TO UPDATE ADS
$ FEE TO SEE
DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
$ UP FRONT
FEES TO BIND ADS
$ FEE TO UPDATE ADS
$ FEE TO SEE
DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
IceDragon Package (Ads +
Content) Delivered Via Internet
25
INVESTORS ONLY
INVESTORS ONLY
26
27
EMPIRE BUILDING
THE FRANCHISE TEMPLATE FOR MEDIA CONGLOMERATES
OVERVIEW: THE STORY BRIDGE MODEL
 The central element
o The most profitable franchises in media & entertainment have a common
core element: a timeless story
 The story bridge model
o Six phases
o One continuous story
 Data points
o Even with the evidence staring directly at them, no media firm has
completely implemented this model on an institutional basis
2. NOVEL
3. GRAPHIC NOVEL/
COMIC BOOK
4. VIDEO GAME
(IMMERSIVE/SOCIAL)
5. MOVIE
6. CONSUMER PRODUCTS +
THEME PARKS +
ONLINE CONTENT
1. STORY
28
CONSIDERATIONS
 Non-Monetary
o Brand
 Story
 Cross-generational fan base
 Immersive experience
o Sustained PR
 Monetary
o Synergies across businesses
 Novel
 Graphic Novel
 Video Game
 Movie
 Theme Park
 Consumer Products
 Online Content
29
FRANCHISE
PHASE I: FINDING THE STORY - RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
 Research & Development
o Cast wide net initially
o Initial emphasis on low cost distribution routes, before minting franchises
STORY
STORY
STORY
STORY
STORY
STORY
 Creative Brainstorming
 Treatments
 Short Stories
 Comic Books
 Graphic Novels
 Novels
 Graphic Novels
30
PHASE II: THE GRAPHIC NOVEL/COMIC BOOK SERIES
 Potential
o Great novels can be turned into great graphic novels and comic books
 Why Graphic Novels
o Maximizes fan base
 Engages all ages
• Kids through Fan Boys/Girls
o Most valuable customers
 Developing deeply loyal fan base ensure lifetime customers
 Data Points
o Spiderman, Batman, Avengers…
 Implications
o Future storylines can “test the water” by releasing a leather bound, digital
moving image enabled, graphic novel
 Before green lighting the screenplay
31
PHASE III: THE NOVEL
 Potential
o Great stories can be turned into great novels
 Why Novels
o Maximizes engagement level
 Plot background
 Character development
o Customer segmentation
 By attacking every customer segment, a media firm builds value
exponentially
 Increases the number of potential people with emotional stakes in
any storyline
o Creates potential for spinoffs of secondary characters and storylines
 Data Points
o Harry Potter
o The Lord Of The Rings
32
PHASE IV: THE VIDEO GAME
 Why Video Games
o Immersive
 The experience is as immersive as technology allows
o Social
 Role Playing Games create vast social networks
o Untapped Potential
 Increase value by placing a video game’s story in an actual story
sequence between the first and second novels
 Data Point
o Halo
 Over 40 M copies sold worldwide, generating more than $3 B in
merchandise
1
 Arrogance in Microsoft’s initial foray into the film industry has delayed a
movie deal
2
 Even amidst such neglect, fan fiction has propagated
 Rooster Teeth’s success with Red vs. Blue
 2.1 M subscribers on YouTube
33
PHASE V: THE MOVIE
 Why Movies
o PR
 Press generated by summer event movies
o Society
 Mainstream society considers movies as the “ultimate” form of a story
o Reach
 Allows casual fans to engage with story with limited price, time, and
commitment
 Potential for long term reengagement through television and digital
sales
 Data Points
o Star Wars
o Jurassic Park
34
PHASE VI: CONSUMER PRODUCTS, THEME PARKS, ONLINE
 Consumer Products
o Increases reality for kids by connecting real life sensory experiences,
activating their imaginations
o Data Point
 Toy Story 3
• More than $1 B box office sales, but $7.3 B in retail sales
3
 Theme Parks
o High CapEx places a barrier to entry for competing firms
o Involves entire family
o Data Points
 Pirates Of The Caribbean
 Harry Potter
 Online
o Potential to provide an additional story bridge between the movies and
video games
o Data point: Pixar’s shorts
35
MEDIA TOYS FOR THE FUTURE: THE STORY BRIDGE CONCEPT
 By creating a seamless story that bridges from
Graphic novel to 
Online episodes to 
Movie to 
Toy(s) to 
Theme parks and beyond! 
 A media firm multiplies the value generated by their elite intellectual property
 Each phase, ideally, should represent a stand-alone chapter, of a continuing
story line
36
MEDIA TOYS FOR THE FUTURE: SMART TOYS
 Toys should be as smart, or smarter than our phones and tablets
 Once toys are infused with near artificial intelligence, the consumer
products phase within the story bridge can be taken to another level
 Implications
o Smart toys could lead their owner on an adventure, which is an integral
part of the franchise story line
o Major consumer product plot points could only occur with the combination
of multiple toys together
 Encouraging children to organize socially to complete plot points
37
THEME PARKS ARE NOT JUST FOR KIDS ANYMORE
 Media-technology firms that tend to generate adult focused intellectual
property
o Have enormous monetization opportunities open to them in the form of
live entertainment parks
 Adult theme parks
o Military training and competitions (Call Of Duty)
o Weapons training (Assassin’s Creed)
o Science fiction adventures (Halo)
o Racing (Forza Motorsport, Need For Speed)
 Meeting live entertainment objectives could have virtual rewards
38
ACQUISITION OPPORTUNITIES
 Studios
o DreamWorks Animation
o MGM
 Consumer Products
o Hasbro
o Mattel
 Gaming
o Electronic Arts
o Activision Blizzard
 Franchise Potential Properties
o Halo
o Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy (reboot)
o Red Wall
o Dune
39
SOURCES
1. Erik Kain, New Halo 4 Details, Screenshots Emerge As 343 Industries Takes The Warthog's Wheel, Forbes (August 13,
2013)http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2012/03/05/halo-4-screenshots-details-revealed-new-multi-player-redesigned-master-chief-
as-343-industries-takes-the-warthogs-wheel/.
2. Guest Blogger, Why the Halo Movie Failed to Launch, WIRED, (August 13, 2013) http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2012/04/halo-
movie-generation-xbox/.
3. The Walt Disney Company Investor Conference 2011, (August 13,
2013)http://cdn.media.ir.thewaltdisneycompany.com/2011/events/ic/2011_Investor_Conference_Transcript_FINAL.pdf
40
41
APPENDIX I
ICEDRAGON PERSPECTIVES ANALYSIS
ICEDRAGON PERSPECTIVES ANALYSIS – PART A
42
HARD COPY STREAMING LIVE DVR/ON-DEMAND ICEDRAGON DOWNLOAD
DESCRIPTION  Physically tangible
 Requires additional device to play
 Streaming digitally directly onto
device
 Live broadcasts through specific
devices (generally television)
 Record onto a specific device
(television)
 May be subject to restrictions
 Satellite/Cable provided devices
 Third party devices (TiVo, Apple
TV…)
 Record media onto any
TYPE  DVD
 BluRay
 Flash Drive
 Internet
 Satellite
 Cable
 Internet
 Cable
 Satellite
 Network Satellite
 Digital Video Recorders
 Video On Demand
 Internet
 Cable
 Satellite
Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits
CONSUMER’S
PERSPECTIVE
 Tied to physical
location
 Mobile Hyper-
Unfriendly
 Secure
 Portable
 Highest
Definition
 Skip trailers/ads
 Flexible timing
 Buffering is
awful!
 Often low
quality
 Limited
connectivity
across
platforms
 Why pay for
permanent beta
products?
 Forced ads
 Portable
 Mobile Friendly
 Flexible timing
 Connectivity
issues
 Mobile
unfriendly
 Forced ads
 Inflexible timing
 Fair quality
 Potential for an
“event” dynamic
 (Superbowl,
American Idol
Finals)
 Premier option
when results
matter (sports,
competitions)
 Connectivity
issues
 Limited hard
drive space
(depending on
provider)
 Not “live”
 Mobile
unfriendly
 Flexible timing
 Skip ads
 High quality
 Forced ads
 Not “live”
 Privacy (who
sees the data?)
 Highest quality
 Mobile friendly
 Flexible timing
MEDIA FIRM’S
PERSPECTIVE
 Increasing
digitization of
society
 Increasing
ubiquity of
mobile devices
 Secure (less
piracy)
 Charge
premium for
ownership
 Available only
through internet
(does not reach
rural areas)
 Secure
 Forced ads
 Lower quality
than live, so
can argue for
higher fees to
distribution
channels and
consumer
product
companies
 Mobile Friendly
 Mobile
unfriendly
 Lower
viewership
depending on
audience
schedules
 Enables high
drama for
specific
episodes
 Potential to
drive social
conversation
 Angers
advertisers,
may drive lower
prices paid
 Increases
viewership
potential
 Ownership by
the consumer
 Secure
 Forced ads
 Mobile friendly
 Maximizes
viewership
DISTRIBUTION
FIRM’S
PERSPECTIVE
 Does not use
media
distribution
channels
except physical
and online retail
stores
 Bandwidth
strains
 Technology not
developed
 Consumer
complaints for
purchases that
have low
quality
 Flexible timing
 Can charge
premium pricing
for in-home
convenience
 Potential
bandwidth
strains at big
events
 Potential to
show multiple
sources of
content
unavailable in
any other
format
 Bandwidth
strains
 Technology not
developed
 Consumer
complaints for
purchases that
have low
quality
 Flexible timing
 Can charge
premium pricing
for in-home
convenience
 Chance for
increased
subscription fee
 Potential to
remove
Cable/Satellite/
Networks
providers out of
the equation for
certain
channels
 Potential for
fewer rentals
 Reduce
bandwidth
strains and
impending
“bandwidth cliff”
as consumption
patterns evolve
 Consumers
can download
outside of peak
hours
ICEDRAGON PERSPECTIVES ANALYSIS – PART B
43
HARD COPY STREAMING LIVE RECORDER/ON DEMAND ICEDRAGON DOWNLOAD
DESCRIPTION  Physically tangible
 Requires additional device to play
 Streaming digitally directly onto
device
 Live broadcasts through specific
devices (generally television)
 Record onto a specific device
(television)
 May be subject to restrictions
 Satellite/Cable provided devices
 Third party devices (TiVo, Apple
TV…)
 Record media onto any
TYPE  DVD
 BluRay
 Flash Drive
 Internet
 Satellite
 Cable
 Internet
 Cable
 Satellite
 Network Satellite
 Digital Video Recorders
 Video On Demand
 Internet
 Cable
 Satellite
Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits
CONSUMER
PRODUCT
COMPANY’S
PERSPECTIVE
 Consumers
skip ads
 Significant time
delay potential
for ads
 Non-targeted
ads
 Poor ad quality
 Tendency of
consumers to
shift attention to
other screens
and web pages
and/or mute
 Forced ads
 More targeted
 Non-targeted  High audience
potential
 PR potential
 Ability to skip
ads
 Highly targeted
ads
 Ability to
segment
purchases by
individual
 Maximizes
audience
potential
 Forced ad
views
ADVERTISING
AGENCIES’
PERSPECTIVE
 Consumer may
skip ads
 Poorer quality
leads to
potential for
fewer audience
 Forced ads
 Poorer quality
leads to
potential for
fewer audience
 Vague mandate
due to limited
targeting for
large events
 High audience
potential
 Ability to skip
ads
 IceDragon has
leverage on ad
placement
 Potential for
forcing to
improve quality
of ad
 Potential for
restrictions on
timing (shorten
or lengthen) to
maximize
audience
viewership
 Ability to target
ads most
specifically
 Potential for
increased
number of
types of ads by
demographic
segmentation
 Potential for
customer
reviews of the
advertisements
44
APPENDIX II
MEDIA INDUSTRY GENERAL OVERVIEW
MEDIA INDUSTRY GENERAL OVERVIEW
 CONTENT
o Types
 Film
• Kids
• Teens
• Adults
 Television
• Networks
• Cable
 Music
 Novels
 Comics
 Advertising
• Creative
• PR
• Media Advisory
o Production
 Story Origination
 Talent Management
 Financing
 Technology
• Hardware
• Software
45
 DISTRIBUTION
o Internet
o Cable
o Satellite
o Cellular
o Radio
o Experience
 Theme Parks
 Concerts
 Sports
• Professional
• Amateur
 Theater
 Gambling
45

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The Mogul's Guide To TMT

  • 1. THE MOGUL’S GUIDE TO TMT HELLO TECH, MEDIA, & TELECOM, MEET THE FUTURE Joseph Mathew | J.D./M.B.A. University of Virginia josephmathew10@gmail.com | (706) 255-9793 September 15, 2013 Executive Level
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 Black Box Breach DragonRex 11 IceDragon 19 Investors Only 25 Empire Building 27 Appendix I: IceDragon Perspectives Analysis 41 Appendix II: Media Industry General Overview 44 Overview 3 6
  • 4. THE MOGUL’S GUIDE: OVERVIEW  This guide is intended as a chart for intelligent media and technology chief executives o To be used in navigating the dark and choppy waters of the future  And also presents a few potential blueprints for significant market opportunities for those executives as well as investors 4
  • 5. THE MOGUL’S GUIDE: SECTIONS  Black Box Breach o Paints the picture of the future living room  Provides key insights necessary in developing your company’s comprehensive strategy for the next decade  DragonRex o Articulates the devices that will own the living room of the future  IceDragon o Furnishes a missing piece in the advertising technology arsenal for media firms readying themselves for home entertainment dominated by the internet  Panthera o Global news gateway  Empire Building o Crystallizes and expands the franchise monetization model developed by The Walt Disney Company 5
  • 7. BLACK BOX BREACH EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  Thesis o The contest over the future of your living room will be won, in the near future, in decisive fashion  By hardware, content, and services infused with the internet throughout their D.N.A.  Rationale o As Millennials’ & Emerging Markets’ voracious appetites for streaming video steadily increases, o Telecommunications providers will eventually meet that need,  Creating a virtuous spiral for online media service creators and facilitators 7
  • 8. SUPPORTING DATA  Internet data consumption skyrockets o Netflix accounts for about 1/3rd of peak period downstream traffic in North America, while YouTube eats up 1/5th of mobile network traffic1  Jet speed internet approaches for landing o Google Fiber is turning up the pressure on entrenched internet providers o An Alcatel-Lucent and France Télécom-Orange test in February 2013 clocking speeds at a smoldering 400 gigabits-per-second2  Troublesome youth o Only 26% of Millennials watch more than 20 hours of television per week,  While 49% of non-Millennials do so o 42% of Millennials prefer to consume television content through their computer through services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime, and Hulu,  While only 18% of non-Millennials prefer the same3  Emerging market viewers’ aversion to cable o Viewers in Brazil and China prefer online video to television4 8
  • 9. RAMIFICATIONS  Crown the internet o The average future living room, within two decades, will revolve entirely around the internet  Go global or go home o Global brands will completely dominate mere domestic players  À la carte is the future o The available apps, of which there will be hundreds or even thousands, will each represent branded channels and services  Deploy capital accordingly o Former cash flow generators will depreciate faster than forecast  Television stations  Cable distribution  Satellite distribution o Certain properties may be undervalued  Regional wireless communications providers  Entertainment intellectual property owners and generators 9
  • 10. SOURCES 1. Sandvine Global Report: Internet Data Usage Up 120 Percent In North America, Sandvine (April 30, 2013), http://www.sandvine.com/news/pr_detail.asp?ID=394. 2. Bernhard Warner, Alcatel-Lucent Unveils World's Most Powerful Broadband Infrastructure, Bloomberg Businessweek (April 30, 2013), http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-15/alcatel-lucent-unveils-worlds-most-powerful-broadband-infrastructure. 3. Christine Barton, Chris Egan, Jeff Fromm, The Millennial Consumer Debunking Stereotypes, The Boston Consulting Group (April 30, 2013). http://www.brandchannel.com/images/papers/536_BCG_The_Millennial_Consumer_Apr_2012%20(3)_tcm80- 103894.pdf. 4. Sam Gutelle, China and Brazil Leading Global Expansion Of Online Video, tubefilter (August 12, 2013), http://www.tubefilter.com/2013/07/02/edelman-study-entertainment-goes-global/#sthash.W826Wx6W.dpuf. 10
  • 12. WHAT DEVICES WILL RULE THIS FUTURE LIVING ROOM?  DragonRex: Media Dream Machine o XBox One/PS4 + Smart TV – Cable/Satellite Input + Necessity Programming (for the Millennial viewer)  = DragonRex  = Media Portal o Services  A Media & Entertainment Portal  Gaming, Movies, Channels (News/Live Events/Episodes), Indie  Headsets/Glasses o Virtual Reality (VR)  Oculus Rift o Augmented Reality (AR)  Google Glass o VR + AR  Microsoft’s Fortaleza 12
  • 13. DRAGONREX OVERVIEW: PHASE I  DragonRex specs o Ram - 32 GB, CPU Cores/Threads - 32/32, Storage - 2 TB, Motion Control - Leap Motion, OS - Android, Data - Ethernet/WiFi/Bluetooth/HDMI Audio Output, Dimensions - 65” Diagonal/4 mm Edge, Design - Ellipse  Millennial Necessity Programming à la carte (MNP) o ESPN  Leverage - Fox Sports One, Tennis Channel, Golf Channel, MLB Network, NFL Network, NHL Network, NBA TV… o HBO GO (minus the cable subscription)  Leverage - Netflix, Prime, Showtime, DreamWorks Animation… o Netflix &/or Amazon Prime  Gaming beast o EA, Activision Blizzard, Rockstar Games, Valve, Ubisoft…  Leverage - Zynga, Gree, DeNA, Rovio, King…  Movies/Channels/Indie o Streaming (Netflix, Prime, Hulu, Crackle, YouTube…) o Download (Hard Disk, IceDragon) 13
  • 14. DRAGONREX MEDIA NEGOTIATIONS: SECRET SAUCE  What do the major media players want? o Disney/Time Warner/21st Century Fox/Viacom desperately want 24/7 branded channels in China  What does the Chinese government want? o Their own Disney/Time Warner/21st Century Fox  Multiple media empires originating from China1  What will DragonRex have? o A media portal built specifically for the needs of emerging markets  Global  Internet based  Zero barriers to entry for channel distribution 14
  • 15. DRAGONREX MEDIA NEGOTIATING: PROPOSED DEAL  The major media players allow their content and apps on the DragonRex platform  In exchange, the Chinese government allows those players access to their market via the DragonRex platform  In exchange, DragonRex grants China’s emerging media firms (Xinhua News Agency, CCTV, Oriental DreamWorks…) Most Favored Channel status o Prioritized placement on home screens o Advertising o Global audience o Advisory 15 CHINA DRAGONREXMEDIA FIRMS à la carte premium content access to emerging markets & millennials
  • 16. HEADSETS/GLASSES INITIAL KILLER MARKETS  AR o Transport (Driving, Shipping, Aviation) o Military combat  360° vision+ • 360° cameras • Drones+ • Satellites+ • Military intel+ • Unit, division, company intel+ • Orders+  VR o Hardcore gaming o Sports programming o Military training 16  VR + AR o Sports programming o General gaming o Shopping o Social interactions…
  • 17. DRAGONREX & VR + AR GLASSES: THE FUTURE OF SPORTS PROGRAMMING  DRAGONREX o Traditional live sports displayed through the main media portal at the center of the living room  VR + AR Glasses o VR  Displays multiple additional angles of the action • Premium subscription potential o AR  Displays additional data • Commanded by voice, gesture, and device • On players, teams, and plays • Based on recognition of images displayed on the DragonRex portal 17
  • 18. SOURCES 1. Joseph Mathew, Go For Launch: Disney’s Recipe For Successfully Piercing The Media Veil In China, (August 13, 2013), http://www.slideshare.net/codycostarica/disney-china-media-memo-joseph-mathew. 18
  • 19. 19 ICEDRAGON ADVERTISING SOLUTION TO FILL A GAP IN ONLINE MEDIA
  • 21. 21 CONSUMER ICEDRAGON CLOUD (Utilizing AWS) A. Consumer Inputs Data (age/sex/etc. with fewer ads per data) B. Consumer Provides Ad Feedback (up/down votes, rankings, written) IceDragon Package Delivered (Ads+Containers+Content) AdUpdates AD AD CONTENT AD CONTENT ADCONTAINER Ads Segmented By Demographic AD AGENCIES & CONSUMER PRODUCT COMPANIES Ad Updates IceDragon Proprietary Binding Tech DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS ICEDRAGON CONCEPT
  • 22. INTERNET DOWNLOAD KEY Hierarchy Of Importance To Millennials TIER I = HIGH TIER II = MEDIUM TIER III = LOW 22 MEDIA CONTENT LANDSCAPE MILLENIAL CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE HIGH PRICE INFLEXIBLE TIMING DIGITAL VIDEO RECORDERS VIDEO ON DEMAND LOW PRICE TIER I FLEXIBLE TIMING TIER I HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY LOW QUALITY HIGH QUALITY TIER II TIER II CABLE NETWORKS SATELLITE HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY LOW QUALITY HIGH QUALITY HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY LOW QUALITY HIGH QUALITY HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY LOW QUALITY HIGH QUALITY DVD/BLU RAY HIGH ADVERTISING LOW ADVERTISING HIGH OWNERSHIPLOW OWNERSHIP TIER III TIER III ICEDRAGON HIGH ADVERTISING LOW ADVERTISING HIGH OWNERSHIPLOW OWNERSHIP INTERNET STREAMING MEDIA PLAYERS
  • 23. 23 CONTENT VALUE CHAIN OLD BRAND NEW LOW PRODUCTION VALUE HIGH PRODUCTION VALUE NETWORK SERIES BRAND NEW CABLE SERIES BRAND NEW YOUTUBE INDIVIDUAL VIDEOS BRAND NEW SHORT MOVIES BRAND NEW YOUTUBE CHANNEL VIDEOS BRAND NEW FEATURE FILMS BRAND NEW ICEDRAGON APP SWEET SPOT NETWORK SERIES RECENTLY AIRED CABLE SERIES RECENTLY AIRED YOUTUBE INDIVIDUAL VIDEOS RECENT RELEASE SHORT MOVIES RECENT RELEASE YOUTUBE CHANNEL VIDEOS RECENT RELEASE FEATURE FILMS POST-DVD RELEASE NETWORK SERIES POPULAR SERIES CABLE SERIES POPULAR SERIES YOUTUBE INDIVIDUAL VIDEOS OLD SHORT MOVIES OLD YOUTUBE CHANNEL VIDEOS OLD FEATURE FILMS CLASSICS POPULAR MUSIC BRAND NEW POPULAR MUSIC RECENT RELEASE POPULAR MUSIC OLD AMATEUR MUSIC BRAND NEW AMATEUR MUSIC RECENT RELEASE AMATEUR MUSIC OLD MILLENNIAL CONTENT MILLENNIAL CONTENT MILLENNIAL CONTENT MILLENNIAL CONTENT MILLENNIAL CONTENT MILLENNIAL CONTENT MILLENNIAL CONTENT MILLENNIAL CONTENT
  • 24. ICEDRAGON BUSINESS MODEL 24 CONSUMER PRODUCT COMPANIES CONTENT ADVERTISING AGENCIES MEDIA FIRMS ICEDRAGON $ UP FRONT FEES TO BIND ADS $ FEE TO UPDATE ADS $ FEE TO SEE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA $ UP FRONT FEES TO BIND ADS $ FEE TO UPDATE ADS $ FEE TO SEE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA IceDragon Package (Ads + Content) Delivered Via Internet
  • 27. 27 EMPIRE BUILDING THE FRANCHISE TEMPLATE FOR MEDIA CONGLOMERATES
  • 28. OVERVIEW: THE STORY BRIDGE MODEL  The central element o The most profitable franchises in media & entertainment have a common core element: a timeless story  The story bridge model o Six phases o One continuous story  Data points o Even with the evidence staring directly at them, no media firm has completely implemented this model on an institutional basis 2. NOVEL 3. GRAPHIC NOVEL/ COMIC BOOK 4. VIDEO GAME (IMMERSIVE/SOCIAL) 5. MOVIE 6. CONSUMER PRODUCTS + THEME PARKS + ONLINE CONTENT 1. STORY 28
  • 29. CONSIDERATIONS  Non-Monetary o Brand  Story  Cross-generational fan base  Immersive experience o Sustained PR  Monetary o Synergies across businesses  Novel  Graphic Novel  Video Game  Movie  Theme Park  Consumer Products  Online Content 29
  • 30. FRANCHISE PHASE I: FINDING THE STORY - RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT  Research & Development o Cast wide net initially o Initial emphasis on low cost distribution routes, before minting franchises STORY STORY STORY STORY STORY STORY  Creative Brainstorming  Treatments  Short Stories  Comic Books  Graphic Novels  Novels  Graphic Novels 30
  • 31. PHASE II: THE GRAPHIC NOVEL/COMIC BOOK SERIES  Potential o Great novels can be turned into great graphic novels and comic books  Why Graphic Novels o Maximizes fan base  Engages all ages • Kids through Fan Boys/Girls o Most valuable customers  Developing deeply loyal fan base ensure lifetime customers  Data Points o Spiderman, Batman, Avengers…  Implications o Future storylines can “test the water” by releasing a leather bound, digital moving image enabled, graphic novel  Before green lighting the screenplay 31
  • 32. PHASE III: THE NOVEL  Potential o Great stories can be turned into great novels  Why Novels o Maximizes engagement level  Plot background  Character development o Customer segmentation  By attacking every customer segment, a media firm builds value exponentially  Increases the number of potential people with emotional stakes in any storyline o Creates potential for spinoffs of secondary characters and storylines  Data Points o Harry Potter o The Lord Of The Rings 32
  • 33. PHASE IV: THE VIDEO GAME  Why Video Games o Immersive  The experience is as immersive as technology allows o Social  Role Playing Games create vast social networks o Untapped Potential  Increase value by placing a video game’s story in an actual story sequence between the first and second novels  Data Point o Halo  Over 40 M copies sold worldwide, generating more than $3 B in merchandise 1  Arrogance in Microsoft’s initial foray into the film industry has delayed a movie deal 2  Even amidst such neglect, fan fiction has propagated  Rooster Teeth’s success with Red vs. Blue  2.1 M subscribers on YouTube 33
  • 34. PHASE V: THE MOVIE  Why Movies o PR  Press generated by summer event movies o Society  Mainstream society considers movies as the “ultimate” form of a story o Reach  Allows casual fans to engage with story with limited price, time, and commitment  Potential for long term reengagement through television and digital sales  Data Points o Star Wars o Jurassic Park 34
  • 35. PHASE VI: CONSUMER PRODUCTS, THEME PARKS, ONLINE  Consumer Products o Increases reality for kids by connecting real life sensory experiences, activating their imaginations o Data Point  Toy Story 3 • More than $1 B box office sales, but $7.3 B in retail sales 3  Theme Parks o High CapEx places a barrier to entry for competing firms o Involves entire family o Data Points  Pirates Of The Caribbean  Harry Potter  Online o Potential to provide an additional story bridge between the movies and video games o Data point: Pixar’s shorts 35
  • 36. MEDIA TOYS FOR THE FUTURE: THE STORY BRIDGE CONCEPT  By creating a seamless story that bridges from Graphic novel to  Online episodes to  Movie to  Toy(s) to  Theme parks and beyond!   A media firm multiplies the value generated by their elite intellectual property  Each phase, ideally, should represent a stand-alone chapter, of a continuing story line 36
  • 37. MEDIA TOYS FOR THE FUTURE: SMART TOYS  Toys should be as smart, or smarter than our phones and tablets  Once toys are infused with near artificial intelligence, the consumer products phase within the story bridge can be taken to another level  Implications o Smart toys could lead their owner on an adventure, which is an integral part of the franchise story line o Major consumer product plot points could only occur with the combination of multiple toys together  Encouraging children to organize socially to complete plot points 37
  • 38. THEME PARKS ARE NOT JUST FOR KIDS ANYMORE  Media-technology firms that tend to generate adult focused intellectual property o Have enormous monetization opportunities open to them in the form of live entertainment parks  Adult theme parks o Military training and competitions (Call Of Duty) o Weapons training (Assassin’s Creed) o Science fiction adventures (Halo) o Racing (Forza Motorsport, Need For Speed)  Meeting live entertainment objectives could have virtual rewards 38
  • 39. ACQUISITION OPPORTUNITIES  Studios o DreamWorks Animation o MGM  Consumer Products o Hasbro o Mattel  Gaming o Electronic Arts o Activision Blizzard  Franchise Potential Properties o Halo o Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy (reboot) o Red Wall o Dune 39
  • 40. SOURCES 1. Erik Kain, New Halo 4 Details, Screenshots Emerge As 343 Industries Takes The Warthog's Wheel, Forbes (August 13, 2013)http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2012/03/05/halo-4-screenshots-details-revealed-new-multi-player-redesigned-master-chief- as-343-industries-takes-the-warthogs-wheel/. 2. Guest Blogger, Why the Halo Movie Failed to Launch, WIRED, (August 13, 2013) http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2012/04/halo- movie-generation-xbox/. 3. The Walt Disney Company Investor Conference 2011, (August 13, 2013)http://cdn.media.ir.thewaltdisneycompany.com/2011/events/ic/2011_Investor_Conference_Transcript_FINAL.pdf 40
  • 42. ICEDRAGON PERSPECTIVES ANALYSIS – PART A 42 HARD COPY STREAMING LIVE DVR/ON-DEMAND ICEDRAGON DOWNLOAD DESCRIPTION  Physically tangible  Requires additional device to play  Streaming digitally directly onto device  Live broadcasts through specific devices (generally television)  Record onto a specific device (television)  May be subject to restrictions  Satellite/Cable provided devices  Third party devices (TiVo, Apple TV…)  Record media onto any TYPE  DVD  BluRay  Flash Drive  Internet  Satellite  Cable  Internet  Cable  Satellite  Network Satellite  Digital Video Recorders  Video On Demand  Internet  Cable  Satellite Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits CONSUMER’S PERSPECTIVE  Tied to physical location  Mobile Hyper- Unfriendly  Secure  Portable  Highest Definition  Skip trailers/ads  Flexible timing  Buffering is awful!  Often low quality  Limited connectivity across platforms  Why pay for permanent beta products?  Forced ads  Portable  Mobile Friendly  Flexible timing  Connectivity issues  Mobile unfriendly  Forced ads  Inflexible timing  Fair quality  Potential for an “event” dynamic  (Superbowl, American Idol Finals)  Premier option when results matter (sports, competitions)  Connectivity issues  Limited hard drive space (depending on provider)  Not “live”  Mobile unfriendly  Flexible timing  Skip ads  High quality  Forced ads  Not “live”  Privacy (who sees the data?)  Highest quality  Mobile friendly  Flexible timing MEDIA FIRM’S PERSPECTIVE  Increasing digitization of society  Increasing ubiquity of mobile devices  Secure (less piracy)  Charge premium for ownership  Available only through internet (does not reach rural areas)  Secure  Forced ads  Lower quality than live, so can argue for higher fees to distribution channels and consumer product companies  Mobile Friendly  Mobile unfriendly  Lower viewership depending on audience schedules  Enables high drama for specific episodes  Potential to drive social conversation  Angers advertisers, may drive lower prices paid  Increases viewership potential  Ownership by the consumer  Secure  Forced ads  Mobile friendly  Maximizes viewership DISTRIBUTION FIRM’S PERSPECTIVE  Does not use media distribution channels except physical and online retail stores  Bandwidth strains  Technology not developed  Consumer complaints for purchases that have low quality  Flexible timing  Can charge premium pricing for in-home convenience  Potential bandwidth strains at big events  Potential to show multiple sources of content unavailable in any other format  Bandwidth strains  Technology not developed  Consumer complaints for purchases that have low quality  Flexible timing  Can charge premium pricing for in-home convenience  Chance for increased subscription fee  Potential to remove Cable/Satellite/ Networks providers out of the equation for certain channels  Potential for fewer rentals  Reduce bandwidth strains and impending “bandwidth cliff” as consumption patterns evolve  Consumers can download outside of peak hours
  • 43. ICEDRAGON PERSPECTIVES ANALYSIS – PART B 43 HARD COPY STREAMING LIVE RECORDER/ON DEMAND ICEDRAGON DOWNLOAD DESCRIPTION  Physically tangible  Requires additional device to play  Streaming digitally directly onto device  Live broadcasts through specific devices (generally television)  Record onto a specific device (television)  May be subject to restrictions  Satellite/Cable provided devices  Third party devices (TiVo, Apple TV…)  Record media onto any TYPE  DVD  BluRay  Flash Drive  Internet  Satellite  Cable  Internet  Cable  Satellite  Network Satellite  Digital Video Recorders  Video On Demand  Internet  Cable  Satellite Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits CONSUMER PRODUCT COMPANY’S PERSPECTIVE  Consumers skip ads  Significant time delay potential for ads  Non-targeted ads  Poor ad quality  Tendency of consumers to shift attention to other screens and web pages and/or mute  Forced ads  More targeted  Non-targeted  High audience potential  PR potential  Ability to skip ads  Highly targeted ads  Ability to segment purchases by individual  Maximizes audience potential  Forced ad views ADVERTISING AGENCIES’ PERSPECTIVE  Consumer may skip ads  Poorer quality leads to potential for fewer audience  Forced ads  Poorer quality leads to potential for fewer audience  Vague mandate due to limited targeting for large events  High audience potential  Ability to skip ads  IceDragon has leverage on ad placement  Potential for forcing to improve quality of ad  Potential for restrictions on timing (shorten or lengthen) to maximize audience viewership  Ability to target ads most specifically  Potential for increased number of types of ads by demographic segmentation  Potential for customer reviews of the advertisements
  • 44. 44 APPENDIX II MEDIA INDUSTRY GENERAL OVERVIEW
  • 45. MEDIA INDUSTRY GENERAL OVERVIEW  CONTENT o Types  Film • Kids • Teens • Adults  Television • Networks • Cable  Music  Novels  Comics  Advertising • Creative • PR • Media Advisory o Production  Story Origination  Talent Management  Financing  Technology • Hardware • Software 45  DISTRIBUTION o Internet o Cable o Satellite o Cellular o Radio o Experience  Theme Parks  Concerts  Sports • Professional • Amateur  Theater  Gambling 45