1) The global investment landscape may realign in 2016 as major central banks change course, with the US expected to raise rates, Japan potentially tapering QE, and China's reforms promoting growth.
2) China has successfully rebalanced its economy away from heavy industry and towards services, accounting for half of GDP, but headlines still focus on declines in manufacturing.
3) Infrastructure investment in China has stabilized and signs point to a potential cyclical upswing in housing, which could drive broader economic growth and commodity demand in the coming year.
The document discusses whether the U.S. economy has achieved "escape velocity," which refers to a self-sustaining economic recovery that allows the Fed to end its bond purchase program. It notes that many economists believe the U.S. will reach escape velocity in 2014 due to broad economic strength and reduced fiscal drag. However, inflation remains below the Fed's target and further tapering will depend on economic data. The document also examines factors like China's economic transition and the implications for commodities.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
The Chinese currency, the Yuan, reached its lowest level against the dollar in five years in early January 2016 as Chinese policymakers pushed the currency lower through repeated devaluations to boost exports. This weakened the Yuan and fueled concerns about China's economy slowing more quickly than expected. A weaker Yuan could also drive the global economy closer to recession by reducing the purchasing power of the world's second largest economy. Other Asian economies that rely on exports to China may face pressure as their goods become more expensive to Chinese buyers. The devaluation also exacerbated declines in commodity prices and emerging market currencies. Overall the moves suggest China is struggling more than expected to transition from an export-led economy to one driven by domestic consumption and
Advice for the Wise - August 2015
• The investor behaviour, bordering on split personality is probably why it is apt to call our times ‘interesting
• Diversification is not merely ‘sensible’, it is an absolute must
• Equity markets were broadly range bound for the month of July; with mid caps showing better strength compared to large cap stocks.
• Global markets got a scare from plummeting Chinese stocks as large number of local investors had to unwind their leveraged positions on account of margin calls getting triggered.
• The rate-cut cycle seems certain and one can anticipate interest rates to converge with the inflation rate in next 5-6 quarters
The document provides an overview of various markets and economic indicators for October 2015. It notes that US GDP growth slowed in Q3 adding to uncertainty around potential Fed rate hikes. China's GDP growth also slowed. Domestically, Indian markets rebounded in October due to stabilization in emerging markets and signs of economic recovery. Going forward, markets are expected to consolidate with limited volatility.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic economic conditions and outlooks across various sectors in a monthly investment advisory. Some key points:
- Global equity markets saw declines in September due to ongoing weakness in China and fears of rising US interest rates. Domestic Indian markets were also impacted by foreign outflows.
- The RBI cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the Indian economy amid signs of recovery in industrial growth and moderating inflation. This was welcomed by markets.
- Sector outlooks varied with IT, healthcare and financials expected to outperform while metals and utilities faced challenges due to global and regulatory factors. Government policy changes could boost infrastructure.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
This document provides summaries on the economic outlooks of various countries and regions, including China, India, and Southeast Asian nations. For China, it notes that growth is slowing as the potential growth rate declines due to demographic and other factors. Real estate continues to be a major drag on China's economy, with falling prices, sales, and new investment. Exports are also weakening as wages rise and China's success has limited its ability to tap new markets. The capital outflows have caused China's foreign reserves to shrink and tipped the balance of payments into a deficit.
The document discusses whether the U.S. economy has achieved "escape velocity," which refers to a self-sustaining economic recovery that allows the Fed to end its bond purchase program. It notes that many economists believe the U.S. will reach escape velocity in 2014 due to broad economic strength and reduced fiscal drag. However, inflation remains below the Fed's target and further tapering will depend on economic data. The document also examines factors like China's economic transition and the implications for commodities.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
The Chinese currency, the Yuan, reached its lowest level against the dollar in five years in early January 2016 as Chinese policymakers pushed the currency lower through repeated devaluations to boost exports. This weakened the Yuan and fueled concerns about China's economy slowing more quickly than expected. A weaker Yuan could also drive the global economy closer to recession by reducing the purchasing power of the world's second largest economy. Other Asian economies that rely on exports to China may face pressure as their goods become more expensive to Chinese buyers. The devaluation also exacerbated declines in commodity prices and emerging market currencies. Overall the moves suggest China is struggling more than expected to transition from an export-led economy to one driven by domestic consumption and
Advice for the Wise - August 2015
• The investor behaviour, bordering on split personality is probably why it is apt to call our times ‘interesting
• Diversification is not merely ‘sensible’, it is an absolute must
• Equity markets were broadly range bound for the month of July; with mid caps showing better strength compared to large cap stocks.
• Global markets got a scare from plummeting Chinese stocks as large number of local investors had to unwind their leveraged positions on account of margin calls getting triggered.
• The rate-cut cycle seems certain and one can anticipate interest rates to converge with the inflation rate in next 5-6 quarters
The document provides an overview of various markets and economic indicators for October 2015. It notes that US GDP growth slowed in Q3 adding to uncertainty around potential Fed rate hikes. China's GDP growth also slowed. Domestically, Indian markets rebounded in October due to stabilization in emerging markets and signs of economic recovery. Going forward, markets are expected to consolidate with limited volatility.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic economic conditions and outlooks across various sectors in a monthly investment advisory. Some key points:
- Global equity markets saw declines in September due to ongoing weakness in China and fears of rising US interest rates. Domestic Indian markets were also impacted by foreign outflows.
- The RBI cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the Indian economy amid signs of recovery in industrial growth and moderating inflation. This was welcomed by markets.
- Sector outlooks varied with IT, healthcare and financials expected to outperform while metals and utilities faced challenges due to global and regulatory factors. Government policy changes could boost infrastructure.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
This document provides summaries on the economic outlooks of various countries and regions, including China, India, and Southeast Asian nations. For China, it notes that growth is slowing as the potential growth rate declines due to demographic and other factors. Real estate continues to be a major drag on China's economy, with falling prices, sales, and new investment. Exports are also weakening as wages rise and China's success has limited its ability to tap new markets. The capital outflows have caused China's foreign reserves to shrink and tipped the balance of payments into a deficit.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides an overview and analysis of global investment markets in 2014 and perspectives on 2015.
The key points are:
- In 2014, the US stock market performed strongly while European and UK markets lagged. Emerging markets struggled overall but India and China saw gains. Commodity prices fell, hurting mining and energy stocks.
- Interest rates remained low globally due to ongoing disinflationary pressures. The author expects rates to stay low for longer than markets anticipate, particularly in the UK and Europe.
- Bond markets performed well in 2014 contrary to expectations of rising rates and underperforming bonds. The author's cautious macro outlook and expectation of low rates proved correct.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides an overview of the global business environment in August 2015. It discusses the economies of key regions:
- The US economy saw growth in the first half of 2015 driven by consumer spending and low oil prices, though federal spending declined. Household debt levels remained stable while delinquencies decreased slightly.
- The EU recovery remains fragile despite measures like ECB bond purchases. Second quarter GDP growth of 0.3% missed targets as France stagnated and other major economies saw slower growth.
- Other topics covered include expectations for the timing of US interest rate rises, high stock valuations, trade balances of various countries, and the impact of sustained low oil prices on the global economy.
The document provides an outlook for the second half of 2013. It predicts that the performance of markets will converge on a path of modest gains with increased volatility. In the first half of 2013, stocks took a bull path, commodities took a bear path, and bonds took a base path. However, in the second half the document expects the different markets to follow a similar, modest but volatile path. It summarizes key elements of the economic and market outlook, including continued 2% GDP growth in the US, a slowing but ongoing Fed bond buying program, and modest single-digit returns for stocks and bonds.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides a comprehensive review and outlook of the US economy across several areas including demographics, markets, real estate, employment, and GDP. It summarizes key data and trends in each area, with some of the main points being that demographics will weigh on consumption as baby boomers retire, the housing market still faces significant headwinds from high inventory and foreclosures, unemployment remains at historically high levels across many sectors, and GDP growth is expected to be positive in the short term but a return to recession is still possible given weak underlying fundamentals.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's liquidity measures and their impact on gold. It notes that the Fed has pumped a large amount of money into the financial system, causing banks to send excess reserves back through reverse repurchase agreements. It also summarizes comments from Fed Chair Powell signaling that the Fed will remain accommodative but sees inflation pressures as transitory. The document argues this perspective is out of touch with data showing ongoing increases in prices paid and received. It concludes that gold benefited from low real interest rates but may face challenges if the Fed continues its tightening cycle.
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
Skirting the Abyss: From Economic Downturn to Financial Crisis to Long-term M...Llinlithgow Associates
We came right up to the edge of the economic abyss after a year of an accelerating economic downturn and have managed to avoid it but are not out of the woods yet. The risks of a double-dip are growing but the likelihood of a weak recovery and poor job creation is high. A key problem is and was the financial crisis and credit market collapse which has created major lingering problems that will be with us for years. Beyond that a two-decade over-accumulation of debt, drastic declines in Savings and under-Investment have created long-term problems for getting back to sustainable long-term growth. Here we survey the current state of the economy, wade thru the details of the Financial crisis, especially the role of Synthetic Structured Debt and the business performance of the Finance Industry. Then we roll forward to examine the long-term damages created, how we need reduce private debt and what our prospects for reduced long-term growth are. Or, given the decisions to invest in our future and address broader policy problems, how we can return to a path of longer-term high growth and prosperity.
The document summarizes the mid-year 2011 economic outlook and investment environment. It notes that while some economic growth signals are positive, unemployment, housing, interest rates, and oil prices pose risks; and high government and overall debt levels threaten long-term growth. The investment outlook is mixed, with cautious optimism for stocks but concerns around valuations, technicals, and the sustainability of earnings growth.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US and global economies in 2014 and an outlook for 2015. In 2014, US GDP growth recovered from a weak first quarter, driven by strong growth in the second and third quarters. Unemployment continued to decline. For 2015, the outlook expects US GDP growth to reach 3.0% due to continued job growth, increased consumer spending power from lower oil prices, and a pickup in business investment. However, weakness abroad and a strong dollar may impact trade.
Gold may rise as market euphoria about economic recovery ends. While strong GDP growth is expected in the short term due to base effects and stimulus, optimism may be exaggerated, unemployment remains elevated, and risks remain from virus variants. Inflation is already above the Fed's 2% target according to official data, and likely even higher using alternative measures, but the Fed says price increases will be temporary. However, inflation could be more persistent given money supply increases, government spending, and pent-up demand as the economy reopens. Higher inflation would be bullish for gold as an inflation hedge.
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic trends in various regions including the US, Europe, China, and emerging markets. It also covers trends in several sectors. Key points:
- The US economy is in relatively good shape overall despite weakness in the oil industry. Unemployment is low, the housing market is strong, and capital investments are rising except in energy. However, the Fed is expected to delay raising rates until 2016 due to global growth concerns.
- The eurozone faces risks of deflation as inflation recently turned negative. Private consumption had driven growth but may decline if deflation persists. Core inflation remains positive and growth is expected to continue modestly.
- China's economy is slowing as the
O documento discute as adversidades enfrentadas pelo apóstolo Paulo em seu ministério, incluindo destemor na pregação do evangelho, alegria em meio às crises, e servindo a Deus mesmo na prisão. Ele aprendeu a se contentar em todas as circunstâncias com a ajuda do Senhor.
The document discusses risks to China's economic outlook that have recently intensified. It notes that while the government's long-term reform agenda remains positive, short-term cyclical risks from low growth have increased. Specifically, the budget aims to stimulate local investment but nearly half is dedicated to supply-side reforms, and there are few drivers of growth other than infrastructure and housing. Additionally, the housing market faces risks of excessive leverage and a potential price collapse if the government cracks down on liquidity. Overall the risks to China's outlook have grown and now hang in a delicate balance.
The bonobo is an endangered species of great ape found only in the Democratic Republic of Congo. They live in tropical rainforests along the Kasai River and south of the Congo River, where they have an omnivorous diet consisting mainly of fruit. Bonobos are unique among apes in that they resolve conflicts through sex rather than aggression. Conservation efforts aim to protect bonobo habitats from threats like bushmeat hunting and deforestation through projects establishing protected areas and educating local communities.
El documento habla sobre la teoría del Estado. Define al Estado como un ente jurídico conformado por instituciones cuya función es gobernar y administrar los bienes de una nación con estricto apego a las leyes. Describe las características del Estado como territorio, población, gobierno y leyes. Menciona las formas de gobierno como representativo, democrático y federal con división de poderes. Explica conceptos como república, insurgente y federalismo. Finalmente, analiza las teorías de Sócrates, Platón y
La Vicerrectoría de Investigaciones es la dependencia encargada de orientar y gestionar políticas, estrategias, planes, proyectos y lineamientos para el fomento, el desarrollo y la consolidación de la Ciencia, la Tecnología y la Innovación en la Universidad Tecnológica del Chocó “Diego Luis Córdoba”, con criterios de excelencia, calidad académica, equidad, autonomía, responsabilidad social e integración; que respondan a diversas necesidades e intereses regionales, nacionales y en concordancia con el PLAN RECTORAL 2012 – 2015.
Estamos comprometidos con alcanzar la excelencia en la investigación, como eje central en la generación de conocimiento útil para la formulación de estrategias que contribuyan al bienestar de la sociedad. A través de la Vicerrectoría de Investigaciones, venimos trabajando de manera férrea en el fortalecimiento de los procesos de investigación científica y tecnológica, junto con las actividades de docencia y extensión y proyección social, en aras de lograr el posicionamiento en el Sistema Nacional de Ciencia Tecnología e Innovación (CT+I) al tiempo de integrar la investigación en los procesos de docencia y extensión.
Buscamos generar un ambiente donde la generación de conocimiento básico, las estrategias de valoración, aprovechamiento y prospección de los bienes y servicios ecosistémicos, y la cultura, sean privilegiadas. Es por ello que contamos con los centros de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Hábitat (CEIBHA), en Cultura Afrocolombiana e Indígena (CIAFRO), en Educación (CEIDUC), y una serie de iniciativas y proyectos estratégicos como: el Centro de Investigaciones en Equidad para la Salud en el Pacifico (CIESP) en asocio con la Universidad del Valle y la Universidad ICESI, el Centro Nacional de Estudios y Documentación de las Culturas Afrocolombianas en asocio con el Ministerio de la Cultura, el Programa Colombia de la Universidad de Georgetown, USAID y el Instituto Colombiano de Antropología e Historia (ICANHI), el Centro Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para el Desarrollo Productivo Sostenible de la Biodiversidad (BIOINNOVA) del cual somos parte estructural, La Corp-Oraloteca, el Programa Ondas y diversas Redes de conocimiento en las distintas áreas del saber, y con 81 Grupos de Investigación.
Lo anterior refleja el ámbito amplio y la diversidad de nuestras investigaciones y nos permite hacer contribuciones significativas al Sistema Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación y a la formulación de políticas de desarrollo.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides an overview and analysis of global investment markets in 2014 and perspectives on 2015.
The key points are:
- In 2014, the US stock market performed strongly while European and UK markets lagged. Emerging markets struggled overall but India and China saw gains. Commodity prices fell, hurting mining and energy stocks.
- Interest rates remained low globally due to ongoing disinflationary pressures. The author expects rates to stay low for longer than markets anticipate, particularly in the UK and Europe.
- Bond markets performed well in 2014 contrary to expectations of rising rates and underperforming bonds. The author's cautious macro outlook and expectation of low rates proved correct.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides an overview of the global business environment in August 2015. It discusses the economies of key regions:
- The US economy saw growth in the first half of 2015 driven by consumer spending and low oil prices, though federal spending declined. Household debt levels remained stable while delinquencies decreased slightly.
- The EU recovery remains fragile despite measures like ECB bond purchases. Second quarter GDP growth of 0.3% missed targets as France stagnated and other major economies saw slower growth.
- Other topics covered include expectations for the timing of US interest rate rises, high stock valuations, trade balances of various countries, and the impact of sustained low oil prices on the global economy.
The document provides an outlook for the second half of 2013. It predicts that the performance of markets will converge on a path of modest gains with increased volatility. In the first half of 2013, stocks took a bull path, commodities took a bear path, and bonds took a base path. However, in the second half the document expects the different markets to follow a similar, modest but volatile path. It summarizes key elements of the economic and market outlook, including continued 2% GDP growth in the US, a slowing but ongoing Fed bond buying program, and modest single-digit returns for stocks and bonds.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides a comprehensive review and outlook of the US economy across several areas including demographics, markets, real estate, employment, and GDP. It summarizes key data and trends in each area, with some of the main points being that demographics will weigh on consumption as baby boomers retire, the housing market still faces significant headwinds from high inventory and foreclosures, unemployment remains at historically high levels across many sectors, and GDP growth is expected to be positive in the short term but a return to recession is still possible given weak underlying fundamentals.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's liquidity measures and their impact on gold. It notes that the Fed has pumped a large amount of money into the financial system, causing banks to send excess reserves back through reverse repurchase agreements. It also summarizes comments from Fed Chair Powell signaling that the Fed will remain accommodative but sees inflation pressures as transitory. The document argues this perspective is out of touch with data showing ongoing increases in prices paid and received. It concludes that gold benefited from low real interest rates but may face challenges if the Fed continues its tightening cycle.
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
Skirting the Abyss: From Economic Downturn to Financial Crisis to Long-term M...Llinlithgow Associates
We came right up to the edge of the economic abyss after a year of an accelerating economic downturn and have managed to avoid it but are not out of the woods yet. The risks of a double-dip are growing but the likelihood of a weak recovery and poor job creation is high. A key problem is and was the financial crisis and credit market collapse which has created major lingering problems that will be with us for years. Beyond that a two-decade over-accumulation of debt, drastic declines in Savings and under-Investment have created long-term problems for getting back to sustainable long-term growth. Here we survey the current state of the economy, wade thru the details of the Financial crisis, especially the role of Synthetic Structured Debt and the business performance of the Finance Industry. Then we roll forward to examine the long-term damages created, how we need reduce private debt and what our prospects for reduced long-term growth are. Or, given the decisions to invest in our future and address broader policy problems, how we can return to a path of longer-term high growth and prosperity.
The document summarizes the mid-year 2011 economic outlook and investment environment. It notes that while some economic growth signals are positive, unemployment, housing, interest rates, and oil prices pose risks; and high government and overall debt levels threaten long-term growth. The investment outlook is mixed, with cautious optimism for stocks but concerns around valuations, technicals, and the sustainability of earnings growth.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US and global economies in 2014 and an outlook for 2015. In 2014, US GDP growth recovered from a weak first quarter, driven by strong growth in the second and third quarters. Unemployment continued to decline. For 2015, the outlook expects US GDP growth to reach 3.0% due to continued job growth, increased consumer spending power from lower oil prices, and a pickup in business investment. However, weakness abroad and a strong dollar may impact trade.
Gold may rise as market euphoria about economic recovery ends. While strong GDP growth is expected in the short term due to base effects and stimulus, optimism may be exaggerated, unemployment remains elevated, and risks remain from virus variants. Inflation is already above the Fed's 2% target according to official data, and likely even higher using alternative measures, but the Fed says price increases will be temporary. However, inflation could be more persistent given money supply increases, government spending, and pent-up demand as the economy reopens. Higher inflation would be bullish for gold as an inflation hedge.
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic trends in various regions including the US, Europe, China, and emerging markets. It also covers trends in several sectors. Key points:
- The US economy is in relatively good shape overall despite weakness in the oil industry. Unemployment is low, the housing market is strong, and capital investments are rising except in energy. However, the Fed is expected to delay raising rates until 2016 due to global growth concerns.
- The eurozone faces risks of deflation as inflation recently turned negative. Private consumption had driven growth but may decline if deflation persists. Core inflation remains positive and growth is expected to continue modestly.
- China's economy is slowing as the
O documento discute as adversidades enfrentadas pelo apóstolo Paulo em seu ministério, incluindo destemor na pregação do evangelho, alegria em meio às crises, e servindo a Deus mesmo na prisão. Ele aprendeu a se contentar em todas as circunstâncias com a ajuda do Senhor.
The document discusses risks to China's economic outlook that have recently intensified. It notes that while the government's long-term reform agenda remains positive, short-term cyclical risks from low growth have increased. Specifically, the budget aims to stimulate local investment but nearly half is dedicated to supply-side reforms, and there are few drivers of growth other than infrastructure and housing. Additionally, the housing market faces risks of excessive leverage and a potential price collapse if the government cracks down on liquidity. Overall the risks to China's outlook have grown and now hang in a delicate balance.
The bonobo is an endangered species of great ape found only in the Democratic Republic of Congo. They live in tropical rainforests along the Kasai River and south of the Congo River, where they have an omnivorous diet consisting mainly of fruit. Bonobos are unique among apes in that they resolve conflicts through sex rather than aggression. Conservation efforts aim to protect bonobo habitats from threats like bushmeat hunting and deforestation through projects establishing protected areas and educating local communities.
El documento habla sobre la teoría del Estado. Define al Estado como un ente jurídico conformado por instituciones cuya función es gobernar y administrar los bienes de una nación con estricto apego a las leyes. Describe las características del Estado como territorio, población, gobierno y leyes. Menciona las formas de gobierno como representativo, democrático y federal con división de poderes. Explica conceptos como república, insurgente y federalismo. Finalmente, analiza las teorías de Sócrates, Platón y
La Vicerrectoría de Investigaciones es la dependencia encargada de orientar y gestionar políticas, estrategias, planes, proyectos y lineamientos para el fomento, el desarrollo y la consolidación de la Ciencia, la Tecnología y la Innovación en la Universidad Tecnológica del Chocó “Diego Luis Córdoba”, con criterios de excelencia, calidad académica, equidad, autonomía, responsabilidad social e integración; que respondan a diversas necesidades e intereses regionales, nacionales y en concordancia con el PLAN RECTORAL 2012 – 2015.
Estamos comprometidos con alcanzar la excelencia en la investigación, como eje central en la generación de conocimiento útil para la formulación de estrategias que contribuyan al bienestar de la sociedad. A través de la Vicerrectoría de Investigaciones, venimos trabajando de manera férrea en el fortalecimiento de los procesos de investigación científica y tecnológica, junto con las actividades de docencia y extensión y proyección social, en aras de lograr el posicionamiento en el Sistema Nacional de Ciencia Tecnología e Innovación (CT+I) al tiempo de integrar la investigación en los procesos de docencia y extensión.
Buscamos generar un ambiente donde la generación de conocimiento básico, las estrategias de valoración, aprovechamiento y prospección de los bienes y servicios ecosistémicos, y la cultura, sean privilegiadas. Es por ello que contamos con los centros de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Hábitat (CEIBHA), en Cultura Afrocolombiana e Indígena (CIAFRO), en Educación (CEIDUC), y una serie de iniciativas y proyectos estratégicos como: el Centro de Investigaciones en Equidad para la Salud en el Pacifico (CIESP) en asocio con la Universidad del Valle y la Universidad ICESI, el Centro Nacional de Estudios y Documentación de las Culturas Afrocolombianas en asocio con el Ministerio de la Cultura, el Programa Colombia de la Universidad de Georgetown, USAID y el Instituto Colombiano de Antropología e Historia (ICANHI), el Centro Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para el Desarrollo Productivo Sostenible de la Biodiversidad (BIOINNOVA) del cual somos parte estructural, La Corp-Oraloteca, el Programa Ondas y diversas Redes de conocimiento en las distintas áreas del saber, y con 81 Grupos de Investigación.
Lo anterior refleja el ámbito amplio y la diversidad de nuestras investigaciones y nos permite hacer contribuciones significativas al Sistema Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación y a la formulación de políticas de desarrollo.
O documento descreve um culto semanal realizado por Irmãos Menores chamado Evangelho no Lar. Inclui orações de abertura e encerramento, leituras sobre amor aos animais de Chico Xavier, estudo sobre inteligência animal segundo Espiritismo e magnetização da água. O objetivo é promover paz, amor e proteção nos lares.
1. Ló escolheu as terras férteis perto de Sodoma de forma precipitada sem consultar Abraão ou Deus, levando a uma separação entre eles. 2. Logo depois, Ló e suas riquezas foram capturados durante uma guerra entre reis. 3. Abraão socorreu Ló, derrotando os reis inimigos e recuperando todos os bens de Ló.
O documento discute a evangelização na era digital, enfatizando a importância de usar a internet para pregar o evangelho de forma clara e objetiva, com uma mensagem centrada em Cristo e habilidades técnicas para alcançar as pessoas.
Subsídios para lições bíblicas da CPAD elaborados pelo Pastor Natalino das Neves (IEADC-Sede).
Assista aos demais vídeos com estudos bíblicos e baixe os arquivos de slides referentes aos vídeos no blog:
http://goo.gl/PPDRnr
1. A prosperidade de Abraão veio de sua obediência e confiança em Deus, mas a prosperidade dele e de Ló gerou conflitos entre seus pastores. 2. Abraão propôs que cada um escolhesse um caminho, mas Ló escolheu precipitadamente pela aparência fértil da terra sem consultar a Deus. 3. Essa escolha precipitada levou Ló a perder todos os seus bens quando a região foi atacada, mas Abraão socorreu o sobrinho mesmo ele tendo tomado uma decisão errada.
La Videoteca del Pacífico condensa gran parte de la producción para televisión que se ha originado en esta región en los últimos 30 años y que hacen parte de la información recopilada en el marco del Proyecto de Recuperación de la Memoria Visual del Pacifico, que adelanto con el apoyo del Fondo Mixto de la Cultura y las Artes del Chocó y la colaboración del instituto de Investigaciones Ambientales del Pacifico, la Fundación Beteguma y el periódico CITARA.
La Videoteca del Pacífico constituyen un importante acervo informativo que lo conforman videos documentales y un documento guía que reseña cerca de 150 trabajos que han sido localizadas , con el análisis y sistematización de cada una de las producciones realizadas por importante programadoras, empresas privadas y particulares . La Videoteca es un patrimonio visual y documental que registra cómo han visto e interpretado los medios e investigadores nacionales la realidad que vive esta región desde la perspectiva histórica, étnica, cultural y ambiental.
Las temáticas que contienen la Videoteca y que constituyen una herramienta pedagógica documental de consulta y difusión comprenden temas de : etnicidad y procesos sociales, Ley 70/93, Cultura, Medio ambiente, turismo, megaproyectos, antropología, ecosistemas, especies, parques naturales, ciencia e historia del Pacífico biogeográfico , entre otras.
Considéranos este material audiovisual será de suma utilidad como complemento a la información que existe sobre la región y como herramienta de trabajo, consulta y apoyo a múltiples actividades que se desarrollan es esta zona.
La Videoteca del Pacifico es realmente una lectura positiva que estimula y extrae de nuestros valores lo mejor de sí para proyectarlos al otro país que desconoce de este potencial inmensos que nos ofrece el pacífico, los paisajes, el recorrido de costa a costa, sus recursos naturales, los saberes, la historia, nuestra fiestas, las tradiciones culturales tratadas con un alto contendido investigativo, antropológico que le da el contexto histórico y cultural que valora y proyecta nuestra cultura.
O documento apresenta uma lição bíblica sobre as setenta semanas profetizadas no livro de Daniel. A lição discute como Daniel compreendeu a profecia de Jeremias sobre o cativeiro de Israel durar setenta anos. Deus então revela a Daniel que após a reconstrução de Jerusalém haveria um período de 490 anos dividido em três partes: 7 semanas, 62 semanas e 1 semana, cumprindo objetivos como trazer a justiça eterna e ungir o santíssimo.
1) A terra será renovada para ser purificada dos efeitos da Queda.
2) O fogo vai purificar os céus e a Terra.
3) A Nova Jerusalém será um lugar santo de comunhão com Deus, e só aqueles com o nome no Livro da Vida poderão entrar.
Referências
Revista Lições Bíblicas. O DEUS DE TODA PROVISÃO, Esperança e sabedoria divina para a Igreja em meio às crises. Lição 06 – Deus: O nosso provedor. I – Isaque vai para gerar por causa da fome. 1. A intenção de Isaque. 2. Promessas em tempos de crises. 3. A obediência de Isaque. II – Crise com os vizinhos. 1. Crise em Gerar. 2. Isaque semeou em Gerar. 3. A inveja dos vizinhos. III – Cavando poços em tempos de crise. 1. Isaque usa os poços de Abraão. 2. O poço de Eseque. 3. O poço de Sitna. Editora CPAD. Rio de Janeiro – RJ. 4° Trimestre de 2016.
Elaboração dos slides: Ismael Pereira de Oliveira. Pastor na Igreja Assembleia de Deus, Convenção CIADSETA, matrícula número 3749-12. Inscrito na CGADB, número do registro 76248. Contatos para agenda: 63 - 984070979 (Oi) e 63 – 981264038 (Tim), pregação e ensino.
The document discusses the impact of recent political events in Italy and China on global equity markets. It argues that markets have consolidated in the short term due to cracks emerging in the three bullish views that have driven gains recently: slowing Chinese growth, concerns over reductions in quantitative easing liquidity, and instability in Italy. The author believes further weakness is likely as markets adjust to the risks associated with a potential end to quantitative easing programs, but that this could ultimately provide more attractive entry points for risk assets.
1. The document analyzes China's decision to change the way it determines the central parity rate of the renminbi, questioning the widespread view that it was a currency devaluation aimed at boosting exports.
2. The move is better understood as part of China's ongoing efforts to reform its economy and reduce debt levels while avoiding a hard economic landing. A competitive devaluation makes little sense given China's policies to internationalize and increase global usage of the renminbi.
3. From an economic perspective, China's exports and imports have both been falling, with imports declining more sharply, leaving China with a large trade surplus. A currency devaluation would exacerbate political tensions with its trading partners and hurt China
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
This document discusses top trends to watch in 2015 in the Asia Pacific real estate market according to a Cushman & Wakefield report. The key points are:
1) Regional economic growth is expected to moderate around 5.0-5.3% as China's growth slows, but domestic demand and policy support will help other economies.
2) Office leasing activity is projected to rebound across many markets in the region due to improving fundamentals, with emerging markets seeing the strongest gains. Vacancy rates may rise in some emerging cities.
3) Non-central business district office locations will continue attracting tenants by offering lower rents and desirable locations compared to prime CBD areas.
The document provides an outlook for 2016, summarizing that:
1) China has committed to ensuring 7% growth for the immediate future through government intervention, but rebalancing away from investment is necessary long-term which will slow growth rates.
2) In Europe, GDP growth has accelerated from under 1% to 1.6% since late 2014, supported by ECB monetary easing expanding credit.
3) In the US, growth in construction employment and spending is contributing to a 5% rise in personal consumption and will likely continue supporting the economy in 2016.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document summarizes the Q3 update to the 2015 investment outlook from Segal Rogerscasey Canada. It discusses the reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates given mixed signals in the US economy. China's economic slowdown is negatively impacting other Asian and commodity-producing economies. The European economy continues slow growth despite quantitative easing efforts. Overall, the global economic environment remains uncertain.
China has plunged into a cyclical "hard landing" with GDP growth falling to 1.3% in Q4 2011, well below trend. The economic downturn is intensifying further in Q1 2012 as monetary conditions deteriorate. Policymakers have been slow to ease policy due to political jockeying ahead of leadership changes, but the unexpected severity of the downturn may force a policy reaction soon. Any stimulus is likely to boost stocks in the short-term but cause overheating in 2013, while commodities may suffer without further Fed easing.
The Pain of Reform and China's Economic RebirthTom Shaw
This quarterly investment newsletter summarizes recent market movements driven by falling commodity prices, China's economic correction, and US interest rate decisions. It focuses on the timeline of China's stock market decline since reaching a record high in June 2015. The author provides context on China's economic reforms since 1978 and its transition from an export/infrastructure focused economy to one driven by household consumption. Recent volatility is attributed to China's ongoing economic reforms and the immature, retail-investor dominated Chinese stock market, though the author remains optimistic about China's long-term prospects and limited spillover effects on global markets.
- The document discusses the recent volatility in global stock markets and the fear that has gripped investors. While there are valid economic concerns, fear has become contagious and may be overstating the risks.
- The US economy has held up better than expected so far in 2016, with steady job growth and consumer spending. However, tightening financial conditions have led to declines in stock valuations.
- Central banks are again trying to ease financial conditions through further monetary stimulus in order to support the economy and stabilize markets, though investor faith in their actions may be waning.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides an overview and outlook of the Singapore residential property market in 2015. It finds that the market will likely remain weak in 2015, with private home prices expected to soften by 4-6% and HDB resale prices by 6-8%, due to three main factors: 1) the government is unlikely to ease property cooling measures as the market correction has not been significant enough; 2) there remains weak demand and massive upcoming supply, which could increase vacancy rates above 10%; and 3) the threat of rising interest rates from an expected US rate hike makes mortgages more expensive and lowers rental returns. The outlook paints a bleak picture for the residential market in 2015.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
http://bit.ly/GEWaout2014
Les dirigeants sont de plus en plus conscients du potentiel inexploité de l'Afrique sub-saharienne. La population de l'Afrique subsaharienne est devrait croître plus rapidement que dans toutes les autres régions du monde. En conséquence, en 2040, le Continent africain devrait avoir la plus grande force de travail du monde et pourrait avoir une croissance économique plus rapide que n'importe quelle autre région.
The article discusses the Eurozone economy and prospects for escaping a repetitive cycle of weak growth. While consumption and exports are expected to increase slowly in 2015, corporate investment is a key area to monitor as weak investment has limited short-term growth and long-term economic potential. Surveys indicate investment may revive in 2015, though credit availability is not the constraint - companies have ample cash. Structural reforms are still needed to achieve sustained growth.
Market Outlooks
We leverage a global network of investment consultants and researchers to deliver industry specific knowledge and dynamic tools, which allows our clients to make informed strategic investment decisions.
The document discusses two trends in China that point to a better economic year in 2016: 1) the growth of China's domestic corporate bond market, which is helping fuel economic growth and improving the efficiency of allocating capital, and 2) signs of improving fundamentals in the property sector, such as increased property sales and developers' ability to issue bonds at lower costs. These trends are seen as mutually reinforcing and having encouraging implications for China's broader economy.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
1Introduction My name is Yinan Hong. I am your port.docxaryan532920
1
Introduction
My name is Yinan Hong. I am your portfolio manager from Trailblazer
Investment Advisors. I am a CFA charter holder, equipped with sufficient financial
knowledge. I will help my customers manage their wealth and try my best to gain??
as much as possible. There are three objectives for my clients, Sam and Amy
Kratchman who have recently inherited … and have current savingswith
$1,100,000(on an after-tax basis) inheritance. The first one is having enough money
for their life after retirement at age 65. The second objective is raising college tuition
for their two children. The last one is to buy a beach house with newfound inheritance.
Ending summary
Economic Analysis
2014
GDP Growth
The economic recovery of United States in 2014 became a light brightspot in
global economy after the 2009 recession. The low price level do you mean low infl?
If so that isn’t really a great thing at the current time, decreasing unemployment rate,
better development of the what is the estate?estate and manufacturing industry made
the economy continuously recover although at a much lower rate than prev recoveries.
However, some important indexes like the investment of the real estate, income of
amy kratchman � 2016/10/16 12:32 PM
已设置格式: ⾏行行距: 1.5 倍⾏行行距
2
residents residents?, manufacturing have not reached to the same level as it performed
before the recession in 2014 – true – but RE was performing very well and is a strong
area of growth in 14. The percentage change in Real Gross Domestic Product in 2014
increased in the former three quarters and then decrease in the Q4.not true
In the first quarter, the change of GDP was 2.1% not correctnegative growth1.
The most important factor was the abominable weather. The personal consumption
expenditures for nondurable goods decreased because 1what is this? the inconvenient
of buying your table (footnoted) does not imply a decrease. The Gross private
domestic investment decreased 6.6% because of the huge lower equipment
investment1. The exports decreased extremely and the imports increased. They all led
to the negative growth.
Figure12 : CCI Index in 2014
The GDP growth reached to 4.0% in the second quarter. By analyzing the
components that affected overall GDP growth, personal consumption expenditures
1http://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=9&step=1#reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&904=2013&903=1&9
06=q&905=2016&910=x&911=0
2 FactSet
3
and gross private domestic investment played an important role in this significant
growth. Consumption contributed 2.56% change in GDP. After the severe weather,
the private inventory investment, exports, fixed investment, and non-federal
government spending increased.this is a rebound in pretty much all areas However, 5%
more imports negatively impact GDP and offset those positive contributors.
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also ...
1Introduction My name is Yinan Hong. I am your port.docx
AB_Fixed_Income_Insights_201510
1. 1
1Q 2015
2015
AB FIXED INCOME INSIGHTS
WILL THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT
LANDSCAPE REALIGN IN 2016?
+ Hayden Briscoe, Director—Asia Pacific Fixed Income
As we approach the end of the year, our research is leading us to the view that we’re also nearing
the end of an investment era, and the beginning of a new one. We expect this to be a global trend
which will be positive for China, but with potentially negative implications for risk assets.
There are signs, though only tentative, that the global
investment and policy landscape in fourth-quarter 2015 could
lead to a reversal of what, three years ago, were three key
market-shaping events.
Then, markets were in an expanding “balance sheet world”, in
which central banks were pumping more liquidity into the global
financial system to keep economies afloat.
In September 2012, the US Federal Reserve launched its third
round of quantitative easing (QE); in December that year,
Shinzo Abe became a second-time Prime Minister of Japan
and, two months later, launched his Abenomics reforms in an
attempt to boost the country’s growth and inflation.
The central banks hoped that, by helping to lift asset prices,
they would reignite the “animal spirits” in their economies. An
important consequence of these actions was that financial
markets—particularly risk assets—became dislocated from the
macro environment, as liquidity drove valuations higher than
economic fundamentals warranted.
Display 1 shows asset price cycles (expressed as the ratio of
household net worth to income) have become more dominant
in the business cycle during the last two decades or so, at
times of increased balance sheet leverage in various sectors.
The most recent spike, beginning in 2012, coincides with the
leveraging up of central-bank balance sheets.
In Japan, equities have enjoyed a sustained rally until recently,
beginning around the time that Abenomics was introduced in
2013 (Display 2).
Display 1: Is Monetary Policy Driving Asset
Prices… Asset Price Cycles vs. the Business Cycle
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.
Through December 2014
Source: Haver Analytics
Display 2: …Including Japanese Equities?
Japanese Equities vs. Currency
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.
Through September 30, 2015. January 2008 = 100
Source: Bloomberg and AB
440
480
520
560
600
640
680
52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
Balance Sheet Leverage
Recession
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Japanese Yen
Nikkei 225 Index
2. AB FIXED INCOME INSIGHTS OCTOBER 2015
2
At the same time, there was a counter-current to these events.
In November 2012, Xi Jinping became President of China
and—as part of a suite of reforms aimed at rebalancing the
country’s economy—launched a crackdown on corruption.
As the US and Japan attempted to stimulate growth, Xi’s
actions had a dampening effect, leading to a slowdown in
infrastructure and other projects in China. This in turn
effectively put an end to the global commodities boom and
created economic headwinds for commodity-exporting
countries.
ALL CHANGE
In October 2015, each of these three policy initiatives appears
to be doing a U-turn. Having put an end to quantitative easing
a year ago, the Fed—though weighing an improved US
economy against global market volatility—is expected soon to
raise short-term interest rates for the first time in nine years.
The policy debate in Japan now revolves around whether or
not the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should ease further, with the BoJ
governor arguing against it on the grounds that the country is
through the worst of its deflationary spiral. If he’s right, we
believe Japan could signal a tapering in its QE program next
year. This is an out-of-consensus view as the market is still
looking for an extension or top-up of the programme.
We expect China’s 13th Five-Year Plan, to be announced after
the October Communist Party plenum, to focus on reforms that
will continue to push the economy up the value chain, making it
more efficient and innovative, with the aim of reducing the risk
of the country falling into the middle-income trap.
We’re encouraged in this view by Xi’s recent engagement with
the international community, including a state visit to the US in
September and, more recently, the UK, with bilateral trade
agreements high on his agenda. Premier Li Keqiang has been
similarly active across Europe.
China, in other words, still seems to be moving in the opposite
direction to that of the other countries in terms of policy—this
time, however, it’s more pro-growth, while the US and Japan
contemplate moving to tighter policy settings.
MACRO FACTORS BACK IN PLAY
Together, these trends point to a rebalancing in global markets
during 2016. With the US poised to raise interest rates, Japan
potentially tapering its QE and China experiencing a mild
cyclical upswing, macroeconomic factors are likely to reassert
themselves as key investment drivers, in our view.
For the riskiest assets which have been decoupled from
fundamentals, this can only mean a reversion of valuations to
more normal levels.
SILVER LINING IN CHINA’S CLOUDS
While it may be too soon to rely on these straws in the policy
wind as presaging a change in the global investment
landscape next year, we see some fundamental trends—
especially in China—which appear to support the case that
such a change may occur.
This may seem unlikely, given that headlines about China’s
economic growth continue to be overwhelmingly negative. The
fact that the decline in China’s heavy industry sector is hurting
western companies with significant exposure in that area is not
to be taken lightly.
In our view, however, the headlines tend to overlook or
underrate the key fact that the composition of China’s GDP
growth has changed, as shown by Display 3.
Display 3: China’s Economy Rebalances
GDP By Sector (Share)
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.
As of October 15, 2015
Source: CEIC Data and AB
The contribution of the secondary sector or industry—
traditionally the main driver of growth—has declined as a share
of GDP, while the tertiary (services) sector has boomed, to the
point that it now accounts for 50% of GDP.
This is fully consistent with China’s goal of rebalancing its
economy in order to avoid the middle-income trap, and counts
as a major policy achievement. It’s good news for investors,
because it points to more sustainable, if lower, GDP growth
over the long term.
As Display 4, next page, suggests, year-on-year growth in
services is buoyant, while the industry sector remains in a
steep decline. That said, we detect some silver linings in the
clouds hanging over China’s non-services sector.
3. AB FIXED INCOME INSIGHTS OCTOBER 2015
3
Display 4: Services Sector Remains Buoyant
GDP By Sector (Growth)
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.
As of October 15, 2015
Source: CEIC Data and AB
Display 5 shows how growth in the infrastructure and housing
sectors peaked during the commodity boom and how they
have fared since President Xi came to power in 2012.
Infrastructure has stabilised, while housing and manufacturing
have continued to decline.
Display 5: Infrastructure Investment Stays Stable
Investment By Sector (Growth)
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.
As of October 15, 2015
Source: CEIC Data and AB
While we don’t see any turnaround in manufacturing in the
short- to medium-term, we are more positive on infrastructure
and housing. In the case of infrastructure, we expect the new
Five-Year Plan at the very least to maintain investment at
current levels and, possibly, to increase it.
There is any case a great deal of liquidity waiting to be
invested in infrastructure—a result of the exponential growth in
the municipal bond market, created earlier this year after the
central government forced local and provincial governments to
reduce their reliance on bank finance.
Current outstandings are RMB3.7 trillion (US$580 billion).
In housing, we see the possibility of a cyclical upswing,
possibly by the middle of next year. Display 6 indicates that
supply (as represented by Floor Space Started) and demand
(Floor Space Sold) are now in balance, and that excess supply
is diminishing steadily.
Display 6: Housing Fundamentals Firm Up
Investment Of Residential housing (Level)
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.
As of October 15, 2015
Source: CEIC Data and AB
Our research shows that house prices in Tier 1 and Tier 2
cities have begun to rise, and that the trend is spilling over into
Tier 3 cities.
If these trends continue into next year, we expect them to
trigger a revival in property development. This will surprise the
market, which has interpreted the downturn in the sector as the
bursting of a bubble, rather than a cyclical change.
A revival in property development would also be supportive for
the broader economy, in our view, and positive for the global
commodities market—although we’re not suggesting that
demand for commodities will return to anything like pre-2012
levels in the foreseeable future.