The document is a January 2014 newsletter from Prism Capital Management that provides investment updates on several topics:
1) It summarizes the history of interest rates in the US, noting they are currently near historic lows but expected to rise in the future.
2) It outlines the economic outlook for 2014, expecting continued slow GDP growth around 2% with little change in employment, inflation expected to increase slightly but remain low.
3) It summarizes new research from Morningstar that challenges common assumptions around retirement costs, finding actual costs are often lower than estimated based on factors like taxes, spending patterns, and life expectancies.
The fourth quarter of 2012 brought an abundance of angst and speculation surrounding how, and
when, Congress might resolve its ongoing battle over fiscal policy. As investors worried about the
impact of the tax and spending provisions the Budget Control Act of 2011 would have on an already
fragile economy, Congress showed little inclination to reach a bi-partisan compromise. For more info: www.nafcu.org/nifcus
Gold may rise as market euphoria about economic recovery ends. While strong GDP growth is expected in the short term due to base effects and stimulus, optimism may be exaggerated, unemployment remains elevated, and risks remain from virus variants. Inflation is already above the Fed's 2% target according to official data, and likely even higher using alternative measures, but the Fed says price increases will be temporary. However, inflation could be more persistent given money supply increases, government spending, and pent-up demand as the economy reopens. Higher inflation would be bullish for gold as an inflation hedge.
The document provides a summary of the 95th issue of the financialdharma newsletter. It discusses the following key topics:
- The significance of the Urjit Patel Committee report on adopting inflation targeting in India's monetary policy framework.
- Rising income inequality globally and in India based on Gini coefficient measurements.
- Moody's warning about India's ability to absorb rising government debt if economic growth remains low and inflation high.
- Using debt funds to strengthen investment strategies by considering bond duration and interest rate outlook.
This document provides information about retirement planning and financial independence. It discusses how few Americans have pensions today compared to the past and how 401(k) plans have replaced pensions. It also summarizes statistics showing that most Americans are not saving enough for retirement and will not have enough income to maintain their standard of living. The document then discusses strategies like fixed indexed annuities and life insurance to help provide downside protection, upside potential, and guaranteed lifetime income in retirement.
The document summarizes Putnam's fixed-income outlook for Q4 2013. It discusses:
1) The Fed surprised markets by not tapering its bond-buying program, keeping rates low for longer but also increasing rate volatility driven by economic data.
2) Putnam believes the decline in labor participation may be more structural than cyclical, potentially leading to rapid policy tightening in 2014 if unemployment falls quickly.
3) Securitized sectors like agency mortgage-backed securities and commercial mortgage-backed securities benefited from Fed policy and remained overweight positions.
The January labour market report is expected to show little change in employment and a slight rise in unemployment. Total employment is forecast to remain flat compared to December, at around 10,000, with unemployment rising 0.1 percentage points to 5.9%. While some factors point to ongoing job creation, such as fewer layoffs, others suggest hiring growth may slow, like potential cooling in housing and manufacturing. Wage growth remains strong, with average hourly earnings up over 2.5% year-over-year, posing upside risks to inflation that could require further Bank of Canada interest rate hikes in 2018.
- The stock market has risen 17% year-to-date but may be overextended in the short-term given lackluster business fundamentals and economic growth.
- After a potential short-term pullback, stocks could see 20-30% upside over the next year, supported by low interest rates and high liquidity.
- However, the author cautions that weak revenue growth, upcoming fiscal tightening, and downward revisions to earnings estimates could trigger a market correction from current levels.
The fourth quarter of 2012 brought an abundance of angst and speculation surrounding how, and
when, Congress might resolve its ongoing battle over fiscal policy. As investors worried about the
impact of the tax and spending provisions the Budget Control Act of 2011 would have on an already
fragile economy, Congress showed little inclination to reach a bi-partisan compromise. For more info: www.nafcu.org/nifcus
Gold may rise as market euphoria about economic recovery ends. While strong GDP growth is expected in the short term due to base effects and stimulus, optimism may be exaggerated, unemployment remains elevated, and risks remain from virus variants. Inflation is already above the Fed's 2% target according to official data, and likely even higher using alternative measures, but the Fed says price increases will be temporary. However, inflation could be more persistent given money supply increases, government spending, and pent-up demand as the economy reopens. Higher inflation would be bullish for gold as an inflation hedge.
The document provides a summary of the 95th issue of the financialdharma newsletter. It discusses the following key topics:
- The significance of the Urjit Patel Committee report on adopting inflation targeting in India's monetary policy framework.
- Rising income inequality globally and in India based on Gini coefficient measurements.
- Moody's warning about India's ability to absorb rising government debt if economic growth remains low and inflation high.
- Using debt funds to strengthen investment strategies by considering bond duration and interest rate outlook.
This document provides information about retirement planning and financial independence. It discusses how few Americans have pensions today compared to the past and how 401(k) plans have replaced pensions. It also summarizes statistics showing that most Americans are not saving enough for retirement and will not have enough income to maintain their standard of living. The document then discusses strategies like fixed indexed annuities and life insurance to help provide downside protection, upside potential, and guaranteed lifetime income in retirement.
The document summarizes Putnam's fixed-income outlook for Q4 2013. It discusses:
1) The Fed surprised markets by not tapering its bond-buying program, keeping rates low for longer but also increasing rate volatility driven by economic data.
2) Putnam believes the decline in labor participation may be more structural than cyclical, potentially leading to rapid policy tightening in 2014 if unemployment falls quickly.
3) Securitized sectors like agency mortgage-backed securities and commercial mortgage-backed securities benefited from Fed policy and remained overweight positions.
The January labour market report is expected to show little change in employment and a slight rise in unemployment. Total employment is forecast to remain flat compared to December, at around 10,000, with unemployment rising 0.1 percentage points to 5.9%. While some factors point to ongoing job creation, such as fewer layoffs, others suggest hiring growth may slow, like potential cooling in housing and manufacturing. Wage growth remains strong, with average hourly earnings up over 2.5% year-over-year, posing upside risks to inflation that could require further Bank of Canada interest rate hikes in 2018.
- The stock market has risen 17% year-to-date but may be overextended in the short-term given lackluster business fundamentals and economic growth.
- After a potential short-term pullback, stocks could see 20-30% upside over the next year, supported by low interest rates and high liquidity.
- However, the author cautions that weak revenue growth, upcoming fiscal tightening, and downward revisions to earnings estimates could trigger a market correction from current levels.
The document discusses the financial fragility of the bottom 50% of U.S. households based on an analysis of their asset and debt positions. Key findings include:
- The bottom 50% have negative adjusted net assets (-6%) due to high debt levels and illiquid housing/durable assets.
- Their financial position is highly sensitive to housing/equity price changes due to high leverage.
- Debt levels have increased sharply over the past 3 years while incomes have risen little, suggesting worsening financial health.
- The bottom 30-50% likely have negative savings rates and are spending beyond their means.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's plans to potentially raise interest rates in 2015 after keeping them at historic lows since 2008. It notes that while higher rates may benefit savers, they also pose risks and it is difficult to predict how markets will react. The document also analyzes global economic indicators and unemployment data to provide context around the challenges facing the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rate policy.
What has distinguished the companies that have thrived in 2020 from those that are barely surviving? How will the 2020 election results impact financial markets and the economy? What tax strategies can I implement now to potentially reduce my income taxes for 2020? Get answers to these questions and more in the Reby Advisors Fall 2020 Newsletter!
The US economy grew at a decreasing rate in the third quarter of 2010, with GDP growth estimated to fall between 1.5-1.7% and average GDP growth for the year downgraded to 2.5-2.7%. While businesses have healthy balance sheets and cash reserves, uncertainty around taxes, regulations, and health care have discouraged hiring and investment. The Federal Reserve is expected to pursue further quantitative easing to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. However, the main issues remain lack of business investment due to policy uncertainty and weakness in the housing market, with the unemployment rate remaining high at 9.7%. Upcoming midterm elections could improve optimism if they result in a Republican-controlled House and split Senate.
The Truth About Lying: An Economic AnalysisJoe Morgan
The document provides misleading statistics and information about various economic indicators such as housing, employment, and financial markets. It includes graphs and charts with made-up or manipulated data designed to portray a rosier picture than the actual economic situation. The document is critiquing the practice of using false or misleading statistics to claim the economy is improving more than it really is.
The document discusses recent movement in fixed income markets, with interest rates declining dramatically over the past few months. This has significant impacts on both equity markets and the broader economy. The Federal Reserve reduced its expectations for 2019 GDP growth and inflation due to slowing economic indicators and lowered interest rates more rapidly than anticipated. Generally, declining borrowing costs allow economies to advance, so central banks are pushing rates downward globally.
The document discusses budget pressures facing Australian governments. It finds that if current spending and revenue trends continue, the projected budget surplus of 1% of GDP could turn into a deficit of over 4% of GDP by 2023, requiring $60 billion in savings or tax increases. Persistent deficits are problematic as they incur interest costs, limit future borrowing, and unfairly shift costs between generations. Balanced budgets over the economic cycle are preferable to deficits.
Family Business Australia Economic Update 28 August 2015 FBA formatDarryl Gobbett
The document provides a disclaimer stating that any advice is general in nature and does not consider individual circumstances, and no warranty is provided regarding accuracy or completeness of the information. It advises readers to consider their own needs before making investment decisions based on the information. The global trends section discusses factors like moderate global growth, low inflation and interest rates, shrinking deficits, and monetary policies remaining stimulatory in most countries. The Australian outlook section notes growth is expected to continue but the economy is transitioning from the mining investment boom. Households remain big savers and non-mining business investment needs to increase more.
The document discusses concerns about the flattening of the yield curve in recent years. It defines the yield curve as plotting interest rates at various maturity points, traditionally sloping upward as investors require higher yields for longer-term lending. Recently, short-term rates have risen due to Fed actions while longer-term rates have remained low, causing the curve to flatten. An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the past 50 years, though the timing is inconsistent. While not inverted now, spreads are the narrowest in a decade and investors remain watchful.
The document provides a weekly economic update including key data points from the previous week. Unemployment fell slightly but hiring slowed, consumer spending met expectations while manufacturing growth jumped, and home sale contracts decreased slightly while prices rose. Stock markets set new record highs last week with gains across the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indexes.
Td Economics Resale Housing Report October 2011Matt Collinge
Residential real estate activity saw a mixed month in September:
- Housing sales increased month-over-month but remain below January peak levels. Listings and inventory levels were also up slightly.
- The average national resale price decreased month-over-month but remains up 8.1% year-over-year, led by strong gains in British Columbia.
- Factors like new mortgage rules, economic uncertainty, and saturated first-time buyer segment have weighed on sales this year, though low mortgage rates have helped.
- The analyst expects a balance between economic headwinds and low rates to keep prices and sales steady in the coming year.
The next President will need to confront a number of budgetary challenges and will likely sign into law many federal tax and spending changes. Yet too often, election campaigns are about telling voters what they want to hear rather than what they need to know. To separate fiction from reality, the new Fiscal FactChecker series will monitor the 2016 Presidential campaign on an ongoing basis. To start with, we have identified 16 myths that may come up during the campaign.
In this issue:
1. TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee: Market outlook: the year ahead
2. TD Economics: A foundation for uncertain times
3. TD Wealth: New principal residence exemption rules
Social Security's financial projections have been increasingly criticized for underestimating costs and overestimating revenues. A recent study showed the Social Security Agency has gone off course by $27 trillion since 2000. While the Social Security Administration defends its methods, other analysts and the Congressional Budget Office no longer rely on Social Security's estimates. This raises concerns about Social Security's long-term solvency as its trust funds are projected to be depleted by 2033, potentially requiring a dramatic reduction in benefits. Investors are advised to plan for reduced or delayed Social Security benefits and focus on maximizing non-Social Security retirement income sources.
Advice for the Wise - August 2015
• The investor behaviour, bordering on split personality is probably why it is apt to call our times ‘interesting
• Diversification is not merely ‘sensible’, it is an absolute must
• Equity markets were broadly range bound for the month of July; with mid caps showing better strength compared to large cap stocks.
• Global markets got a scare from plummeting Chinese stocks as large number of local investors had to unwind their leveraged positions on account of margin calls getting triggered.
• The rate-cut cycle seems certain and one can anticipate interest rates to converge with the inflation rate in next 5-6 quarters
Annual Equity Outlook 2022 | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
- The document recaps the key events and market movements of 2021, noting several major turning points that played out as anticipated, including the normalization of stimulus measures, the shift from deflation to reflation, and changing market cycles.
- Going into 2022, the environment is described as akin to shifting sands, with dynamism at its peak. An active management approach is recommended to navigate changing macros and valuations.
- Global liquidity is moderating as central banks withdraw stimulus, which has been a major driver of market changes. Inflation is rising in both emerging and developed economies.
This document provides an economic forecast from NAR Research. It includes forecasts and analyses for key economic indicators such as:
- Real GDP growth is forecast to be under 2% for the remainder of 2012 with no recession but also no robust expansion.
- Net new job growth is forecast to be 1.5 million in 2012 and 2.3 million in 2013.
- The unemployment rate is forecast to remain near 8% for most of 2012 and inflation is expected to rise to around 2% in 2013.
- Housing starts are forecast to rise 25% in 2012 and 50% in 2013, with the multifamily sector experiencing a stronger recovery. Existing and new home sales are also forecast to increase in
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
The document is Prism Capital Management's March 2014 investment newsletter. It contains three articles:
1) An overview of how rising interest rates may impact bond yields as the Federal Reserve tapers its bond purchasing program.
2) A list of five essential estate planning tasks everyone should complete, including updating beneficiary designations, designating guardians for minor children, drafting wills, powers of attorney, and naming an executor.
3) Tips for preparing taxes this year, including understanding qualified dividends, capital gains and losses, municipal bond income, and excluding interest from government securities.
There are several types of investments that people can make with their money. Investments allow businesses to make profits by purchasing goods, supplies and equipment. Individuals can also invest in funds, businesses, property or savings accounts to earn more money over time. Investments carry different levels of risk, with some like savings accounts and certificates of deposit carrying lower risk but also lower potential returns, while stocks, real estate and new companies typically carry higher risk but also higher potential returns. Common investments include stocks, bonds, real estate, foreign currency, and mutual funds. A financial advisor can help determine the best places to invest money based on an individual's goals and risk tolerance.
The document discusses the financial fragility of the bottom 50% of U.S. households based on an analysis of their asset and debt positions. Key findings include:
- The bottom 50% have negative adjusted net assets (-6%) due to high debt levels and illiquid housing/durable assets.
- Their financial position is highly sensitive to housing/equity price changes due to high leverage.
- Debt levels have increased sharply over the past 3 years while incomes have risen little, suggesting worsening financial health.
- The bottom 30-50% likely have negative savings rates and are spending beyond their means.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's plans to potentially raise interest rates in 2015 after keeping them at historic lows since 2008. It notes that while higher rates may benefit savers, they also pose risks and it is difficult to predict how markets will react. The document also analyzes global economic indicators and unemployment data to provide context around the challenges facing the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rate policy.
What has distinguished the companies that have thrived in 2020 from those that are barely surviving? How will the 2020 election results impact financial markets and the economy? What tax strategies can I implement now to potentially reduce my income taxes for 2020? Get answers to these questions and more in the Reby Advisors Fall 2020 Newsletter!
The US economy grew at a decreasing rate in the third quarter of 2010, with GDP growth estimated to fall between 1.5-1.7% and average GDP growth for the year downgraded to 2.5-2.7%. While businesses have healthy balance sheets and cash reserves, uncertainty around taxes, regulations, and health care have discouraged hiring and investment. The Federal Reserve is expected to pursue further quantitative easing to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. However, the main issues remain lack of business investment due to policy uncertainty and weakness in the housing market, with the unemployment rate remaining high at 9.7%. Upcoming midterm elections could improve optimism if they result in a Republican-controlled House and split Senate.
The Truth About Lying: An Economic AnalysisJoe Morgan
The document provides misleading statistics and information about various economic indicators such as housing, employment, and financial markets. It includes graphs and charts with made-up or manipulated data designed to portray a rosier picture than the actual economic situation. The document is critiquing the practice of using false or misleading statistics to claim the economy is improving more than it really is.
The document discusses recent movement in fixed income markets, with interest rates declining dramatically over the past few months. This has significant impacts on both equity markets and the broader economy. The Federal Reserve reduced its expectations for 2019 GDP growth and inflation due to slowing economic indicators and lowered interest rates more rapidly than anticipated. Generally, declining borrowing costs allow economies to advance, so central banks are pushing rates downward globally.
The document discusses budget pressures facing Australian governments. It finds that if current spending and revenue trends continue, the projected budget surplus of 1% of GDP could turn into a deficit of over 4% of GDP by 2023, requiring $60 billion in savings or tax increases. Persistent deficits are problematic as they incur interest costs, limit future borrowing, and unfairly shift costs between generations. Balanced budgets over the economic cycle are preferable to deficits.
Family Business Australia Economic Update 28 August 2015 FBA formatDarryl Gobbett
The document provides a disclaimer stating that any advice is general in nature and does not consider individual circumstances, and no warranty is provided regarding accuracy or completeness of the information. It advises readers to consider their own needs before making investment decisions based on the information. The global trends section discusses factors like moderate global growth, low inflation and interest rates, shrinking deficits, and monetary policies remaining stimulatory in most countries. The Australian outlook section notes growth is expected to continue but the economy is transitioning from the mining investment boom. Households remain big savers and non-mining business investment needs to increase more.
The document discusses concerns about the flattening of the yield curve in recent years. It defines the yield curve as plotting interest rates at various maturity points, traditionally sloping upward as investors require higher yields for longer-term lending. Recently, short-term rates have risen due to Fed actions while longer-term rates have remained low, causing the curve to flatten. An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the past 50 years, though the timing is inconsistent. While not inverted now, spreads are the narrowest in a decade and investors remain watchful.
The document provides a weekly economic update including key data points from the previous week. Unemployment fell slightly but hiring slowed, consumer spending met expectations while manufacturing growth jumped, and home sale contracts decreased slightly while prices rose. Stock markets set new record highs last week with gains across the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indexes.
Td Economics Resale Housing Report October 2011Matt Collinge
Residential real estate activity saw a mixed month in September:
- Housing sales increased month-over-month but remain below January peak levels. Listings and inventory levels were also up slightly.
- The average national resale price decreased month-over-month but remains up 8.1% year-over-year, led by strong gains in British Columbia.
- Factors like new mortgage rules, economic uncertainty, and saturated first-time buyer segment have weighed on sales this year, though low mortgage rates have helped.
- The analyst expects a balance between economic headwinds and low rates to keep prices and sales steady in the coming year.
The next President will need to confront a number of budgetary challenges and will likely sign into law many federal tax and spending changes. Yet too often, election campaigns are about telling voters what they want to hear rather than what they need to know. To separate fiction from reality, the new Fiscal FactChecker series will monitor the 2016 Presidential campaign on an ongoing basis. To start with, we have identified 16 myths that may come up during the campaign.
In this issue:
1. TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee: Market outlook: the year ahead
2. TD Economics: A foundation for uncertain times
3. TD Wealth: New principal residence exemption rules
Social Security's financial projections have been increasingly criticized for underestimating costs and overestimating revenues. A recent study showed the Social Security Agency has gone off course by $27 trillion since 2000. While the Social Security Administration defends its methods, other analysts and the Congressional Budget Office no longer rely on Social Security's estimates. This raises concerns about Social Security's long-term solvency as its trust funds are projected to be depleted by 2033, potentially requiring a dramatic reduction in benefits. Investors are advised to plan for reduced or delayed Social Security benefits and focus on maximizing non-Social Security retirement income sources.
Advice for the Wise - August 2015
• The investor behaviour, bordering on split personality is probably why it is apt to call our times ‘interesting
• Diversification is not merely ‘sensible’, it is an absolute must
• Equity markets were broadly range bound for the month of July; with mid caps showing better strength compared to large cap stocks.
• Global markets got a scare from plummeting Chinese stocks as large number of local investors had to unwind their leveraged positions on account of margin calls getting triggered.
• The rate-cut cycle seems certain and one can anticipate interest rates to converge with the inflation rate in next 5-6 quarters
Annual Equity Outlook 2022 | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
- The document recaps the key events and market movements of 2021, noting several major turning points that played out as anticipated, including the normalization of stimulus measures, the shift from deflation to reflation, and changing market cycles.
- Going into 2022, the environment is described as akin to shifting sands, with dynamism at its peak. An active management approach is recommended to navigate changing macros and valuations.
- Global liquidity is moderating as central banks withdraw stimulus, which has been a major driver of market changes. Inflation is rising in both emerging and developed economies.
This document provides an economic forecast from NAR Research. It includes forecasts and analyses for key economic indicators such as:
- Real GDP growth is forecast to be under 2% for the remainder of 2012 with no recession but also no robust expansion.
- Net new job growth is forecast to be 1.5 million in 2012 and 2.3 million in 2013.
- The unemployment rate is forecast to remain near 8% for most of 2012 and inflation is expected to rise to around 2% in 2013.
- Housing starts are forecast to rise 25% in 2012 and 50% in 2013, with the multifamily sector experiencing a stronger recovery. Existing and new home sales are also forecast to increase in
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
The document is Prism Capital Management's March 2014 investment newsletter. It contains three articles:
1) An overview of how rising interest rates may impact bond yields as the Federal Reserve tapers its bond purchasing program.
2) A list of five essential estate planning tasks everyone should complete, including updating beneficiary designations, designating guardians for minor children, drafting wills, powers of attorney, and naming an executor.
3) Tips for preparing taxes this year, including understanding qualified dividends, capital gains and losses, municipal bond income, and excluding interest from government securities.
There are several types of investments that people can make with their money. Investments allow businesses to make profits by purchasing goods, supplies and equipment. Individuals can also invest in funds, businesses, property or savings accounts to earn more money over time. Investments carry different levels of risk, with some like savings accounts and certificates of deposit carrying lower risk but also lower potential returns, while stocks, real estate and new companies typically carry higher risk but also higher potential returns. Common investments include stocks, bonds, real estate, foreign currency, and mutual funds. A financial advisor can help determine the best places to invest money based on an individual's goals and risk tolerance.
1) O documento discute a competência do Supremo Tribunal Federal para julgar determinados agentes públicos acusados de crimes comuns.
2) Argumenta-se que a Constituição estabelece de forma taxativa quais agentes podem ser julgados diretamente pelo STF, não permitindo interpretação ampliativa.
3) A competência por prerrogativa de função deve ser interpretada de forma estrita, julgando-se pelo foro comum em caso de dúvida.
Bharati is celebrating her 60th birthday with a cruise to Bermuda from October 21-28, 2012. Anil Dalal has created an album of photos from the trip as a gift for Bharati. The album is the first of two parts and contains photos from their cruise vacation.
This document provides information about academic advising at Michigan State University. It explains that students should meet with their academic advisor at least once per semester to ensure they are on track to graduate. It describes the different types of advisors that are available, including major advisors who are located in the student's college and sign off on their degree. The document encourages students to declare a major by junior year and offers tips on pursuing minors, specializations, or a double major to complement their primary degree.
- The document provides an economic outlook and recommendations for a moderately conservative investment portfolio for client Jordan Belfort.
- It analyzes factors like GDP growth, unemployment, consumer confidence, housing, and jobless claims to predict continued slow economic recovery in the US and globally over the next few years.
- Based on this outlook, it recommends a portfolio allocation of 20% equities, 35% bonds, 40% mutual funds and ETFs, and 5% cash, with overweight positions in dividend-paying equities and investment-grade corporate debt.
The document discusses the current state of the US consumer market, noting it can be characterized as a "Tale of Two Cities" with high and low income earners facing different conditions. While low income consumers face headwinds like high costs of living, student debt, and unemployment, high income earners benefit from tailwinds such as rising home and investment portfolio values. Although high income consumers are a small percentage, they contribute disproportionately to consumer spending. As long as high income consumer confidence remains strong, overall consumer spending and GDP growth should remain positive, supporting a bullish outlook on equities.
The document provides an overview of Elmwood Wealth Management's quarterly insights for April 2013. It discusses several challenges facing investors including slowing economic growth rates compared to the previous year. It also notes that corporate profit margins remain high but may be pressured if companies increase spending. The document summarizes Elmwood's investment strategies in various themes like the U.S. energy resurgence and total return equity investing. It concludes by reaffirming Elmwood's commitment to serving clients' needs.
This document provides summaries of market conditions and investment outlooks from experts at Telemus Capital Management. It includes the following:
- A summary of the global economic outlook and key factors such as inflation, interest rates, currencies, and natural resources from Jim Robinson of Robinson Capital Management.
- A summary of the U.S. equity market outlook for 2014 from Timothy Evnin of Evercore Wealth Management, noting that earnings growth will drive market gains rather than further multiple expansion.
- A question and response about the municipal bond market's performance in Q4 2013 and how rising rates and isolated credit situations weighed on prices, despite improving fundamentals.
World Financial Group, Inc. is a financial services marketing company that offers various financial products and services through its affiliates. It has insurance agency affiliates in several states that offer insurance products. World Financial Group, Inc. and its insurance affiliates are affiliated companies headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.
World Financial Group, Inc. is a financial services marketing company that offers various financial products and services through its affiliates. It has insurance agency affiliates in several states that offer insurance products. World Financial Group, Inc. and its insurance affiliates are affiliated companies headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.
World Financial Group, Inc. is a financial services marketing company that offers various financial products and services through its affiliates. It has insurance agency affiliates in several states that offer insurance products. World Financial Group, Inc. and its insurance affiliates are affiliated companies headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.
World Financial Group, Inc. is a financial services marketing company that offers various financial products and services through its affiliates. It has insurance agency affiliates in several states that offer insurance products. World Financial Group, Inc. and its insurance affiliates are affiliated companies headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.
World Financial Group, Inc. is a financial services marketing company that offers various financial products and services through its affiliates. It has insurance agency affiliates in several states that offer insurance products. World Financial Group, Inc. and its insurance affiliates are affiliated companies headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.
The document discusses interest rates and inflation trends over recent decades and their impact on mortgage rates, bond yields, and retirement savings. It notes that while rates had declined significantly since the 1970s and 1980s, inflation has remained low in recent years, averaging just 1.7% over the past three years. This has led some to question whether the current low rate environment represents a "new normal." The document examines various economic factors that could influence the direction of future rate changes, such as wage growth, unemployment levels, and actions by the Federal Reserve.
The document provides an overview of the current bond market and interest rate environment. It notes that interest rates have been low since the financial crisis, but recent statements from the Federal Reserve suggest that further rate increases may be halted for now. This could provide an opportunity for bond investors to earn modestly higher yields. Several charts show current U.S. government bond yields across maturities remain low by historical standards, but fixed income can still serve as a portfolio diversifier. There is also over $10 trillion in global debt currently yielding negative returns, keeping U.S. bonds relatively attractive. With low inflation expectations, the Fed has leeway to keep rates from rising in the near future.
The document is a newsletter from a financial services company providing information and advice to clients. It discusses several tax tips that clients should consider before the end of the year, including accelerating deductions, bunching deductions, maximizing retirement contributions, checking exposure to the Alternative Minimum Tax, making charitable donations and family gifts, and assessing capital gains and losses. It also summarizes recent IRS guidance on taking distributions from retirement plans with both pre-tax and after-tax balances.
Common Factors Affecting Retirement IncomeDolf Dunn
People have two very distinct investment periods in their lives, Accumulation and Distribution. Brokers are paid in the accumulation phase, not so much in the distribution phase. Fee-based Financial Planners, like myself, are paid along the way to give our clients great advice in both phases of their lives. Distribution phase is the more difficult of the two to get right. If you do not do proper planning, one risks running out of money before your last breathe. Not to be entrusted to amateurs. I can help, please give me a call.
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
As Fed tapering unfolds, we expect to see stronger growth from developed markets, while emerging markets in aggregate may experience further currency and capital market weakness. In the United States, declining labor participation continues to drive falling unemployment figures, and may harbor the beginning of a wage inflation surprise.
• We expect credit, liquidity, and prepayment risks will continue to
be rewarded by the market in the months ahead, while interestrate
risk remains unattractive due to its asymmetric risk profile.
1) While energy prices have recovered somewhat over the past year, they remain below levels needed for oil producers to drill profitable wells.
2) Declining oil prices have dampened investor sentiment about oil-exporting emerging markets and could lead to increased financial market volatility.
3) However, lower oil prices also provide an opportunity to reform oil-reliant economies and diversify them.
4) Oil prices are projected to recover from current lows but remain below recent peaks, with ongoing volatility expected depending on supply and demand adjustments.
This document provides a summary of Northland Wealth Management's quarterly newsletter. It discusses challenges to future returns in various asset classes. It also covers updates on the Canadian, US and global economic outlooks. Additionally, it discusses why families may want to hire an outsourced chief investment officer to manage their investments instead of doing it themselves. The outsourced CIO approach provides access to top investment managers and strategies around the world.
This document discusses the importance of investing to maintain purchasing power in the face of inflation. It argues that many investors' goal should be to grow their capital at a rate that matches or exceeds inflation. Stocks that pay dividends are presented as a solution, as they can provide income that increases over time to outpace inflation. Several large, stable companies are used as examples that have consistently raised their dividends by over 10% annually for the past decade, demonstrating how purchasing power can be achieved through dividend-paying stocks.
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth ManagementTony Nunes
Here is the first edition of Perspectives & Planning, a quarterly newsletter written by Washington Trust Wealth Management experts, featuring an outlook on the current state of the economy and the financial markets, as well as insights on financial planning.
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth Management
HISTORY OF INTEREST RATES
1. January 2014 Vol. No. 1 Investment Updates
Advisor Corner
Please enjoy our January
newsletter. We invite your
feedback. Let us know what
topics you would like to read
about.
History of Interest Rates
It is commonly known that interest rates have been at
historically low levels for a few years now. But how
low are they? The image illustrates the characteristics
of interest rates of various maturities. On average, long
-term government bonds delivered the highest yield of
5.2%, while intermediate-term government bonds and
30-day Treasury bills provided an average yield of
4.6% and 3.5%, respectively. Current interest rates are
positioned relatively close to the all-time lows,
especially on the lower end of the maturity curve.
A rising interest rate environment seems to be the
generally accepted forecast for the future. While rates
can’t drop much lower from their current level, the
timing and magnitude of the rise still remains highly
uncertain.
Dieter Drews, J.D.
Founder/CEO
ddrews@prismadvisor.com
206-443-4321
www.prismadvisor.com
2. Prism Capital Management, LLC Investment Updates January 2014 2
Economic Outlook for 2014
As the end of 2013 draws near, the U.S. economy
appears very much like an ocean liner, finding it very
difficult to change either speed or direction. As the
table illustrates, overall GDP growth rates,
employment growth and consumption have all been
stuck in a very narrow range for the last three years.
Morningstar economists expect little change in the
overall GDP growth rate for 2014, although the
composition of that growth is likely to be somewhat
different. Inventories should be a much smaller
contributor to growth, net exports are likely to be a
larger subtraction from GDP as imports grow, and
government spending should be a much smaller
negative in 2014.
Consumption, housing and business investments
(excluding inventories) are likely to change little from
their 2013 growth rates. Other forecasts may be more
bullish on overall GDP growth, but Morningstar
economists suspect growth rates in autos will
decelerate, existing home sales will likely be flat, and
government spending will still be a drag, albeit smaller
than the rather large subtraction in 2013.
With little change in the 2% GDP growth rate,
employment growth may not change that much,
either. Slow growth, a wide output gap (a fancy
capacity utilization measure) and a bumper farm crop
should all keep inflation in check in 2014, though
medical costs may rise faster than in 2013, bringing up
the overall rate of inflation. With the Fed now
officially tapering bond purchases, 10-year Treasury
bond rates should move up to reflect the inflation rate
plus a spread. Auto sales should continue to do well in
2014 with continued employment growth, new
models, and an aging fleet. Unfortunately, auto sales
are now approaching previous highs and the law of
large numbers is beginning to set in, with year-over-
year growth rates likely to slow. An acceleration in
housing starts may still occur, as it has taken home
builders some time to gear up for increased demand
(zoning, land acquisition, etc.). However, existing
homes will be hard pressed to grow much with higher
rates, more competition from new homes, tight
inventories, and lower affordability.
Probably the biggest news in the fourth quarter was
that the Fed would begin tapering its large $85 billion
bond purchase program. This program was a truly
extraordinary measure; never before has the Fed
reacted so boldly and so beyond its sphere of short-
term interest rates. Given extraordinarily tight fiscal
measures and a slow-growth economy, the program
was both helpful and necessary. With the economy at
least a little better and an easing of the fiscal tensions,
however, it was probably time for it to end. Markets
had already anticipated the tapering last spring, and
interest rates had previously made their move up.
Further rate increases are possible, but the worst may
be behind us.
3. Prism Capital Management, LLC Investment Updates January 2014 3
Morningstar Research Examines
Retirement Costs
Morningstar Investment Management published new
research in December that examines the most
common assumptions used to estimate retirement
needs and lays out a framework for investors to take a
more personalized approach to setting retirement
savings goals.
“There are three common assumptions that many
software tools and financial advisors use to come up
with a retirement savings goal—a 70 or 80 percent
replacement rate based on pre-retirement income, an
income need that rises with inflation, and a 30-year
retirement time horizon,” David Blanchett, head of
retirement research for Morningstar Investment
Management, said. “When we looked at actual retiree
spending patterns and life expectancy, however, we
found that these assumptions don’t hold true for many
people and, on average, can significantly overestimate
how much people will actually need to fund their
retirement.”
Many expenses disappear after retirement, such as
Medicare taxes, Social Security taxes, and retirement
savings. The paper first demonstrates the effect on
replacement rate calculations of accounting for taxable
and non-taxable expenses that are no longer paid after
retirement. Next, using government data, the analysis
explores the actual spending patterns of retirees, and
finds that they grow at a rate lower than inflation
through most of retirement and then accelerate in later
years because of higher health care costs. While the
difference between the actual spending growth rate
and the inflation rate is relatively small, it has a
material effect over time. When the researchers
modeled actual spending patterns over a couple’s life
expectancy, rather than a fixed 30-year period, the
data showed that many retirees may need
approximately 20% less in savings than the common
assumptions would indicate.
Results from this research show the actual replacement
rate is likely to vary considerably by retiree household,
from under 54% to over 87%. Retiree expenditures do
not, on average, increase each year by inflation or by
some otherwise static percentage; the actual “spending
curve” of a retiree household varies by total
consumption and funding level. Specifically,
households with lower levels of consumption and
higher funding ratios tend to increase spending
through the retirement period and households with
higher levels of consumption but relatively lower
funding ratios tend to decrease spending through the
retirement period. When consumption and funding
levels are combined and correctly modeled, the true
cost of retirement is highly personalized based on each
household’s unique facts and circum¬stances, and is
likely to be lower than amounts determined using
more traditional models.
“While a replacement rate between 70 and 80 percent
may be a reasonable starting place for many
households, we find that the actual replacement rate
can vary considerably,” Blanchett continued. “Take,
for example, a high-income couple, living in a high
income tax state like California, and saving a
significant amount for retirement each year. If that
couple retires in Florida or Texas, where there is no
income tax, the replacement rate might be closer to 60
percent. By contrast, a low-income couple saving very
little for retirement and retiring in California could
have a replacement around 85 percent. It’s important
for investors to consider their level of pre-retirement
household income, expenses that discontinue after
retirement, and post-retirement taxation.”
These findings have important implications for
retirees, especially when estimating the amount that
must be saved to fund retirement. A more advanced
perspective on retiree spending needs can significantly
change the estimate of the true cost of retirement.
Source: David Blanchett, CFA, CFP, Head of
Retirement Research, Morningstar Investment
Management: Estimating the True Cost of
Retirement, Working Paper, Nov. 5, 2013.