How is the U.S. economy doing?
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The document provides an economic update for May discussing key indicators of the US economy. It analyzes employment trends, GDP growth, and stock market performance. Recent job growth has been steady since 2009. GDP growth was slow from 2009-2016 but has increased since 2017. The stock market has risen significantly under Trump after also gaining ground under Obama. Overall, the economy is doing well currently but forecasts suggest slower growth in the next couple years, with risks including trade wars and global economic slowdown.
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How is the U.S. economy doing?
- 1. How is the US Economy Doing? May Economic Update Dennis.Hoffman@asu.edu • What is real and what is not.. • Employment • GDP • Stock market
- 5. Jobs and Presidents Term Jobs created per month pct. added President 1949-1952 5,134,000 106,958 11.49% Truman 1953-1956 2,763,000 57,563 5.51% Ike 1957-1960 1,140,000 23,750 2.15% Ike 1961-1964 5,679,000 118,313 10.58% Kennedy/Johnson 1965-1968 9,827,000 204,729 16.49% Johnson 1969-1972 5,989,000 124,771 8.65% Nixon 1973-1976 5,180,000 107,917 6.85% Nixon/Ford 1977-1980 10,495,000 218,646 13.01% Carter 1981-1984 5,235,000 109,063 5.76% Reagan 1985-1988 10,791,000 224,813 11.20% Reagan 1989-1992 2,601,000 54,188 2.43% Bush 1993-1996 11,692,000 243,583 10.68% Clinton 1997-2000 11,570,000 241,042 9.53% Clinton 2001-2004 -78,000 -1,625 -0.06% Bush 2005-2008 3,040,000 63,333 2.29% Bush 2009-2012 231,000 4,813 0.17% Obama 2013-2016 10,355,000 215,729 7.65% Obama 2017-2020* 10,540,000 219,583 7.23% Trump
- 8. 2017 2018 2019 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Consumption 1.95 1.52 2.64 0.36 2.57 2.37 1.66 0.82 Fixed Investment 0.72 0.44 1.04 1.34 1.1 0.21 0.54 0.27 Nonresidential 0.94 0.45 0.63 1.47 1.15 0.35 0.73 0.38 Residential -0.22 -0.02 0.41 -0.14 -0.05 -0.14 -0.18 -0.11 Government 0.01 -0.18 0.41 0.27 0.43 0.44 -0.07 0.41 Federal 0.16 -0.08 0.26 0.17 0.24 0.23 0.07 0 State and Local -0.15 -0.1 0.15 0.1 0.2 0.22 -0.14 0.41 Net Exports 0.08 0.01 -0.89 -0.02 1.22 -1.99 -0.08 1.03 Exports 0.44 0.42 0.79 0.43 1.12 -0.62 0.22 0.45 Imports -0.36 -0.41 -1.68 -0.45 0.1 -1.37 -0.3 0.58 Changes in Inventory 0.23 1.04 -0.91 0.27 -1.17 2.33 0.11 0.65 Residual 0.093 0.185 -0.183 -0.147 0.396 -0.116 0.009 -0.164 Real GDP Growth 2.99 2.82 2.29 2.22 4.16 3.36 2.17 3.17 c+i 2.67 1.96 3.68 1.7 3.67 2.58 2.2 1.09 Contributions to GDP Growth by Quarter
- 10. $10,000.00 $11,000.00 $12,000.00 $13,000.00 $14,000.00 $15,000.00 $16,000.00 Stock Market Performance obama trump Blue line based on 30 months starting Nov 1 2012
- 11. S&P 500 Performance 1930-present
- 12. So the Economy is doing well How long will it last??
- 13. Blue Chip Forecasts top 50 business forecasters as of April 10, 2019 • 2.3 percent GDP growth for 2019 • 1.9 percent GDP growth for 2020 • None of the 50 say 3 percent or more in 2019 or 2020 and 2 say 2 percent or lower in 2019 • 29 of the 50 say 1 to 2 percent in 2020 • 3 of the 50 say below 1 percent in 2020
- 14. Nowcasts for Q2 2019 • Atlanta 1.3% • New York 2.1%
- 15. 50 Top Business Forecasters April Blue Chip US Forecasts in Pct. RGDP NomGDP 10 yr UN Rate 2019 2.3 4.4 2.7 3.7 2020 1.9 4.1 2.8 3.7
- 16. Short Term Risks/Opportunities • Fed tightening credit crunch • Geo-political or natural shock • Election year hesitation • Trade war • Global slowdown • Business’ overly cautious • Fed accommodative for a longer term • Trade agreements open the door for increased trade • Breakthrough on immigration policies • Animal spirits kick in
- 17. Longer Term Risks/Opportunities • Debt, deficits and demographic headwinds • Populists dominate – Trade wars – Nationalism thrives – Global Growth stifled • Climate change impacts cause harm/dissension • Socialist backlash • Immigration reform solves problems – Debt – Productivity – Labor availability • Trade tensions abate and Globalization regains favor • Entitlement reform • Health care reform • Maturation of 3rd world countries spurs growth
- 18. A Brief look at current issues
- 19. Are Equities Overvalued?- Buffett indicator 145
- 23. What about Global Graying??
- 24. Need more adult diapers than kiddie diapers
- 25. 25
- 26. Revolutionary War War of 1812 Civil War Great Depression WWII Great Recession WWI
- 29. What is driving the interest in Socialism?
- 30. This perhaps
- 31. And what is up with this