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THE INDIAN RETAIL MARKET
By Devangshu Dutta
Devangshu Dutta is chief executive of Third Eyesight (website: www.thirdeyesight.in),
a specialist consulting firm focussed on the retail and consumer products sector.
Third Eyesight works with brand and market leaders with sales of over US$ 80
billion, as well as small and start-up businesses.

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OPPORTUNITY INDIA

Over the last few years India
has had one of the highest
GDP growth rates, across
the world, and consistently.
In the last two years, GDP
growth is estimated to have
been 9.6 per cent (2006-07)
and 9 per cent (2007-08).

A

combination of private
and public investments
in recent years, as well
as steady liberalisation of
regulations, has created a
situation that is unique in India’s history
as an independent country, where
business growth has lead to individual
prosperity which is, in turn, leading to
explosive growth of further business
opportunities. Although India’s per
capita income still places it in the list
of “developing countries”, a significant
population has emerged that is truly
middle-class.
Rising incomes have created visible
shifts in consumption patterns. Certainly,
more Indians regularly consume cereal
flakes, processed cheese and fruit-

based drinks for breakfast than did ten
years ago. A generation has grown to
adulthood wrapped in ready-to-wear
clothing (with visits to the tailor mainly
for wedding trousseaux). And, yes,
Indian consumers are increasingly
welcoming modern retail environments
over the traditional.
These economic developments
have attracted the attention of both
domestic and international consumergoods companies and retailers, and
several of these companies have seen
annual growth rates 20-50 per cent
in the current decade. Many of the
new entrants into the retail sector are
large business groups that have set
up modern retail chains whose share,
although still small, is growing year-onyear.
This growth of modern retailing is
also having an impact on the processes
and the infrastructure deployed for the
retail sector. These businesses are run
as true chains which require processes
and systems similar to any chain-store
business anywhere else in the world

The Indian Market

including merchandising, sourcing,
human resource management, logistics
and store operations. These modern
retail stores demand Grade-A buildings
for shopping centres, with associated
infrastructure and services within them.
Therefore this, in turn, has created
a growing opportunity for companies
that are manufacturers or vendors
of consumer products, suppliers of
other goods that are used within a
retail business or companies providing
services to the retail sector.
In the rush to grow, while challenges
have been acknowledged, none of them
have appeared seriously debilitating in
the long term, until possibly now.
During the years 2003 through 2007,
news headlines mainly focussed on
joint-ventures or strategic alliances, new
store openings, new format launches,
and mega-investment plans. If human
resources were mentioned, it was about
the apparent domestic shortage, about
the expatriate talent being pulled in, and
about incredible salaries. If shopping
centres and retail space was studied, it
INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009

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9/13/2008 12:02:12 AM
was the phenomenal growth in square
footage and the increasing scale of the
new malls that was the focus.
Suddenly, however, the tide in the
press seems to have turned. There’s
mention of “slow” growth plans of major
retail joint ventures. There’s whisperings
and denials about lay-offs, accompanied
by some high-visibility exits.
It would be tempting to read the
signs as evidence that the previous
growth was based on hype, which has
run out of steam. It would be tempting,
and it would also be too simplistic.
The fact is that macroeconomic
factors are also acting as dampeners
in 2008, and the year may be marked
in the recent history of India’s modern
retail sector for the dawn of realism.
Just as the growth of the retail sector
was reaching into the not so profitable
geographies and beginning to ride on
not very efficient structures, economic
growth has begun to slow down
dramatically. From a 9 per centplus growth rate in previous years,
a variety of agencies expect GDP to
grow between 7.5 and 7.9 per cent in
2008-09. Further, the Prime Minister’s
Economic Advisory Council forecasts
a GDP growth rate of 6.8 per cent in
2009-10.
What’s more, 2006 and 2007 have

brought about phenomenal increases in
two critical cost heads: real estate and
human resource.
So on the one hand, retailers are
facing dramatically higher operating
costs, and on the other hand demand
seems to be weaker than they have
expected. For businesses that have
been launched in the last 5-7 years,
such a situation is completely new.
ESTIMATING THE DEMAND –
STILL AN ART?
Since the early years in the decade,
most retail chains have grown quickly
by identifying new sites and replicating
existing successful business models
and formats. Typically, the growth was
limited in its geographic spread, and
the underlying consumption pattern
differences between the existing
markets and the new locations were not
stark enough to be immediately visible.
Much of the growth, in fact, came from
new stores in the larger cities, including
the metros, mini-metros and the next
tier markets.
This high replicability has allowed
the businesses to rapidly scale up into
becoming truly national chains, and the
presence of modern retail formats has
become visible among the larger cities
and towns.

As the companies have begun to
feel “saturated” in the larger cities,
they have gradually moved towards
the smaller towns, with their existing
product-price-format offer tweaked
slightly.
However, the ethnic, linguistic and
cultural diversity of India’s 28 states
and seven Union Territories makes it
less like any other single nation-state
and more like a collection of countries
such as the European Union. The result
is sharp differences in income, tastes,
habits, and culture, all of which present
a challenge for consumer products and
retail companies in terms of product and
pricing mix.
Most European brands do not
approach different markets within the
EU with identical strategies. So why
should we believe that the business
formula that works in one part of India
will work in exactly the same way in
other parts?
A bigger issue is the realistic
estimation of the target population.
There are cases where the demand has
been grossly overestimated, and the
business infrastructure and investment
plans are over-weighted by these
expectations.
Estimates of 200-300 million middle
class (50-60 million households) sound
very attractive, but by what measure of
income and spending standards?
Going by the pricing of many of the
brands in the market today, it would
be logical to use developed market
income standards. If we use global
income standards the middle class
numbers are much smaller. The number

India

European
Union

28 States,
Constituents 7 Union
27 Countries
Territories
22 (over 1,600
Languages
23
dialects)
Area
Population
(est.)
36

3,287,590 km2 4,324,782 km²
1,132,446,000 497,198,740

INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009

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OPPORTUNITY INDIA

of households earning truly middle
class annual household incomes (not
adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity), is
less than 5 million.
Of course, the upside is that the
growth rate in this income class is
estimated to have been over 20% a
year during the current decade and this
group is forecast to comprise over 3.7
million households or about 20 million
individuals by the end of the decade.
There are few other markets in the world
where the target population displays a
growth of over 20% a year! Moreover,
the annual growth rate of the incomes
earned among this population is also
the highest in the country. Further, a
large proportion of this population is
concentrated among the metropolises,
as mentioned earlier.
So it is a nice market to be in, if the
business plan is sized appropriately. You
can expect some homogeneity based
on the socio-economic classification,
and the geographical reach is also
limited, allowing for organic growth.
A specific challenge for companies
wishing to enter with a “western”
business model or product mix is
that, even through its most controlled
years, India has been a market
economy (unlike China’s decades
of a completely centrally controlled
economy). Therefore, in most consumer
products there are several domestic
brands and Indian avatars of foreign
brands available, even if the choice
is narrower than on the shelves of
western supermarkets. Competing
offers are available, whether from Indian

companies or Indian subsidiaries of
global consumer products companies.
In that sense, India is not a virgin
market. There is already some (or
significant) amount of marketing noise
and clutter, created by the existing
competition.
It is vital, therefore, for any company
to identify the true overlap between
its offering and the most appropriate
consumer segment(s) in India to assess
the real short-term and mid-term
potential for its retail business.
THE URBAN RETAIL
OPPORTUNITY AND CHALLENGE
While we are on the subject of the
cities, it is very pertinent to look at the
spread of the urban population.
As India’s population moves
increasingly into cities, it is the larger

Estimated Growth of Major Metropolitan Centres
Estimated Population of Major Conurbations (million)

1991

2001

2005

Greater Mumbai

12.6

16.4

19.9

Delhi (National Capital Region)

8.4

12.8

19.7

Kolkata

11.0

13.2

15.7

Chennai

5.4

6.4

7.6

Bangalore

4.1

5.7

7.1

Hyderabad

4.3

5.5

6.7

Sources: Various

The Indian Market

cities (Class 1, with a population of over
100,000) that are growing the most.
From 308 Class 1 towns, the number
of Class 1 towns and cities in India had
grown to 643 in the 2001 census, and
are estimated to hold about threequarters of the urban population.
These cities are also economic
magnets. No matter how attractive
the new boomtowns may sound, the
larger cities still pull in huge numbers
of immigrants from the smaller cities,
towns and villages, keeping the
ecosystem vibrant.
Within these, in terms of economic
potential for retail businesses, it is the
tier I cities (metros and mini-metros)
that are the still unmatched. In 2001, the
top eight cities were estimated to have
40 per cent of the urban disposable
income, and despite rising costs and
rising competition these remain the
most attractive market for a company
looking to establish a new retail
business. In socio-economic terms
there is more homogeneity available to a
brand wishing to tap into a critical mass
of customers, discretionary incomes are
higher (in absolute not just percentage
terms), and the infrastructure available
to service the consumer is better.
Of course, the side effects of the
population overloading are now visible,
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9/13/2008 12:02:22 AM
While households in cities such as
Chandigarh and Ludhiana have high surplus
incomes compared to Megacities, their
much smaller populations force marketers
to treat them as niche markets.
ever more, on the cities’ infrastructure
and governance. And some of the
overloading is contributed by the
development of shopping centre space.
The growth of modern retail has
brought with it a rapid expansion in
shopping centre space. This is both an
opportunity and a challenge.
While the extraordinary growth of
shopping centres has provided more
space for brands and modern retailers
to grow their business, much of the
growth has been concentrated in the
metropolises.
Almost half the shopping centre
space by the end of 2007 is estimated
to have come up in the conurbations of
Mumbai and Delhi. This “over-shopping”
could potentially lead to the failure of
a significant number of these malls.
The failure may not result in outright
closure – the better sites may change
ownership, while others might get
repurposed as office blocks or other
commercial projects – but it will be
painful, nevertheless.
Paradoxically, despite the
proliferation of malls, for retailers and
brands high real estate rental costs are
the possibly the biggest headache. In
many instances, brands have signedon high-rent shops with the aim of
balancing their portfolio over time, and
fully expect these shops not to make
money in the foreseeable future.
Further, the intensive development
of malls, without adequate zoning and
planning of support infrastructure such
as roads and public transportation
is now stressing not just the city, but
the malls themselves. Even if there is
adequate parking space within the mall
(as compared to a few years ago), what
38

good is it if a two kilometre stretch of
road before the mall is choked with
traffic moving at 2-3 kilometres an hour?
The convenience of shopping under
one roof is totally outweighed by the
inconvenience of spending thrice the
amount of time on the road, and is a
critical deterrent to a serious shopper
who is being targeted by the tenants of
the shopping mall.
TIER 2 AND 3 CITIES – A WORK
IN PROGRESS
A recent study by NCAER and Future
Capital Research compared 20 cities,
and classified them into the Megacities
(metros and mini-metros), Boomtowns
and Niche Cities. The naming of these
groups is quite telling.
Megacities on this list include
Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai,
Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad
and Pune, and have approximately
50% of their income as surplus after

household expenses (other than Kolkata
and Pune which show surpluses in the
30s). They have large populations, and
combined with the surpluses, this up to
a massive economic opportunity.
However, the smaller cities have
been developing into economic
hubs in their own right. If population
is a key factor, then Surat would be
classified as a metro. It has a high
average household income, as well
as a high surplus. Similarly, Nagpur,
with its logistically important location
is also developing into an important
market. Along with Lucknow and Jaipur,
households in these cities have seen
double-digit booms in terms of income
growth since 2005, a trend also seen in
the Megacities.
This trend of income growth,
infrastructure development, trickling of
business hubs into the 2nd and 3rd tier
cities, will continue to broaden the base
of modern retail and distribution further
outside of the major cities. On the other
hand, while households in cities such
as Chandigarh and Ludhiana have
high surplus incomes comparable to
the Megacities, the much smaller base
of population would force marketers
to treat them as niche markets until a
critical mass develops over the next
few years.

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OPPORTUNITY INDIA

Thus, while much has been made
about the boom in the smaller cities
and towns, the formulaic approach of
rolling out the same business model will
certainly not work.
The signs of overestimation of
demand in Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities is
visible in instances of downsizing of
store-space by prominent retailers, as
well as relocation or closure of some
of the new stores which have not
performed to expectation.
THE TUG OF WAR TO
MODERNISE RETAIL
In my opinion retail is
fundamentally an organic
business.
Countries that have displayed
inorganic growth of modern retail
through large-scale corporatisation tend
to be economies that have developed
rapidly in the last 20-25 years. Among
these are the East Asian economies and

the former communist Eastern European
countries. Three critical factors that
have enabled the disproportionate
and rapid growth of corporate retail in
these countries are: financial muscle, a
bank of real estate and strong political
linkages. In other countries the high
share of modern retail has grown over
many more decades.
In other countries such as those in
western Europe and North America,
retail consolidation has happened
over many more decades, boosted
occasionally by phases of economic
boom (such as the 1920s, the 1950s
and 1960s, and then the 1980s).
Many observers have imagined
that India’s retail growth would follow
the East Asian and Eastern European
countries’ pattern, and have projected
that India will reach a state of significant
consolidation through corporate retail
businesses by 2015.
If that were to happen it would be
a rather sad “monoculturisation” of the
business. Fortunately, I believe, that it is
not likely to happen easily.
Firstly, the modernisation of retail
trade has typically moved in step with
broader economic and infrastructural
development. If we use per capita retail
sales as a surrogate measure for the
overall economic development of a
country in conventional terms, the share
of modern retail is closely correlated
with that (see the accompanying table).
Viewed through that lens, the Indian
retail sector is still very far down on
the list, and is likely to remain fairly
fragmented for some time to come.
Secondly, India has a strong
entrepreneurial and organic retail

The Indian Market

ecosystem (not just retailers, but also
suppliers and support organisations).
Given the diversity of the market,
and the sustained fragmentation of
consumer needs, I believe the growth of
India’s retail sector will not be driven by
large companies alone, although they
are helping to accelerate the process
of sophistication – indigenous, noncorporate retailers and their suppliers
have a strong role to play in the ongoing
development.
I believe the Indian retail sector
will evolve along a path that may be a
hybrid, and in fact, may be closer to the
European and American model, with a
significant amount of entrepreneurial
competition dominating the landscape.
Therefore, it is important for
the executives in corporate retail
organisations to think innovatively, as an
entrepreneur would – think truly like a
“dukaandaar” (shopkeeper).
Country

Est. Share
of Organised
Retail (%)

Est. Per
Capita Retail
Sales (US $)

USA

85

9,973

Japan

66

9,249

United Kingdom

80

7,851

France

80

7,124

Germany

80

5,109

South Korea

15

4,144

Czech Republic

30

3,301

Poland

20

3,150

Hungary

30

2,376

Russia

33

1,940

Brazil

36

1,520

40

1,359

Malaysia

55

1,264

Thailand

I believe the Indian retail sector will evolve
along a path that may be a hybrid, and in
fact, may be closer to the European and
American model, with a significant amount
of entrepreneurial competition dominating
the landscape.

Argentina

40

1,043

Indonesia

30

665

China

20

599

Philippines

35

591

Pakistan

1

404

Vietnam

22

309

India

4

287

Source: Various, including ICRIER and
Third Eyesight Analysis
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9/13/2008 12:02:28 AM
Would a dukaandaar open a store in
a place where he has no hopes ever of
making money? Would he consistently
follow this strategy for years? Would he
believe that he is building brand equity
and goodwill by doing so, that will
sustain him in the future? The honest
answer to all those questions would be
an unqualified “no”.
Any long-term strategy can only be
built on the premise that the business
will be sustainable for that term. If the
short-term cashflows are not available
to keep the business alive, no amount
of long-term thinking will help, as some
retailers have recently acknowledged
while shutting stores or entire
businesses.
It is also important for the corporate
dukaandaars to continue to evolve
relationships with the fragmented
supply base, and support the growth of
indigenous national-scale suppliers.
40

MODELS FOR INCLUSION
Inclusive growth has become a
buzzword in recent years. However, I
believe that India is one of the few major
economies where it is more than just a
buzzword.
In 2006, at the National Retail
Summit organised by the Confederation
of Indian Industry, I expressed the
concern that we were getting too
preoccupied with the western model
of urban economic development and
consumption and ignoring the gap
that was being created in India (the
text based on that presentation is
available on Third Eyesight’s website).
To my surprise, I had no fewer than 60
conversations during the day about
the subject, many of them with senior
managers in large consumer goods and
retail companies.
Clearly, the thought of sharing the
growth and prosperity more widely

does strike a chord with many more
Indian urbanites than one would realise.
What’s more, quite a few companies are
actually taking a direct approach into
bridging the gap.
There is no one single model that is
applicable to creating these bridges.
Some – large companies such as
ITC and Mahindra or smaller ventures
such as Drishtee – have created retail
businesses that also act as local
exchanges of services and goods in the

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OPPORTUNITY INDIA

villages. Many of them include villagers
as co-entrepreneurs through franchise
structures, thus helping to generate and
retain wealth within the locality.
Others – such as Fabindia among
the visible, or Khamir and Dastkaar – are
channels for rural artisans to participate
in the economic growth as suppliers to
the burgeoning urban demand.
Food retailers have started coopting farmers into supplying to them
directly, where possible. The attempt
is to bypass middlemen who act as
aggregators, thus making more margins
available to both retailer and farmer.
Many farmers are indeed happy to
put in some extra investment in minor
equipment and some effort, to help
grade, sort and clean the produce, so
as to get a still better price.
Yet, certainly, more could be done.
For instance, how about if the largest
modern retailers in the country created
a permanent display for regional crafts
in all their stores, and took these along
as they grow their chains in the coming
years?
And how about retailers growing
businesses through demand generated
by economic growth in the much
smaller towns? By encouraging regional
suppliers and local buying (as opposed
to the central purchase mindset),
not only would retail chains be better
merchandised for local needs, but
also be plugged more into the local
economy.
Let us not ignore the possibility of
local retailers who are right now “flying
under the radar” to become important
factors in the growth of these smaller
towns.
Demand generation in tTier III towns
and semi-urban areas will accelerate as
the logistical connectivity improves and
shipping costs decline through multimodal transport. There is significant
investment happening in both road
and rail connectivity, and the newly
well-connected dots on India’s map are
visibly more prosperous than earlier.
As these developments continue, we

The Indian Market

Reacting to the high real estate costs,
brands have begun looking at the
possibility of generating higher gross
margins. In most cases, this has meant
that selling prices are pushed up, rather
than sourcing costs being reduced.
should fully expect strong retail chains
to begin building up, first locally and
then regionally.
When we speculate about who
India’s Wal-Mart might be, we shouldn’t
forget that the world’s largest company
emerged from sleepy, semi-rural
locations in the US, and similar
developments might happen in India as
well.
FACING THE CHALLENGES
The Indian retail sector also has
some distinct environmental challenges
that are bigger than the specific
economic blip it is facing right now.
For instance, to my mind retail is
an integral part of urban infrastructure,
but in most cities retail is a sideshow
for urban planners. Either the space
provided is too little, or laid out in such
a manner that no sensible retailer
can expect to have a sustainable and
profitable store in that location. Or, if a
large space is provided for the private
development of shopping centres,
the public transportation connections
are next to nil, while the car-carrying
capacity of the connecting roads is
usually poor.
Some of the other challenges
are related to the Indian government
regulations controlling the sector. As an
example, in the area of fresh produce,
some states still have regulations
that restrict the wholesale trading of
the commodities to the mandis, or
controlled market yards. This means
that the consolidation and processing
of farm produce is more difficult and
expensive.

Real estate costs are an ongoing
challenge for retailers, especially
those that wish to develop mall-based
businesses. Some mall owners have
begun evolving from being “builders”
to mall managers with a long-term view
on creating a business of shopping
centre management, and have begun
linking their rentals to the revenues
actually generated by their retail tenants.
However, in several cases, the real
estate costs are still in the double digits.
Reacting to the high real estate
costs, brands have begun looking at the
possibility of generating higher gross
margins to compensate. In most cases,
this has meant that selling prices are
pushed up, rather than sourcing costs
being reduced. While the consumer
has been largely transparent to these
increases in the last couple of years, I
don’t believe this to be a sustainable
margin strategy. The cracks are already
showing, in the steadily increasing
volumes sold under discounts, and the
emergence of discount retailers who
sell off-season and surplus branded
merchandise. The message, clearly, is:
the real, sustainable, price is at least
25-40% lower than the MRP The market
.
looks ripe for the emergence of everyday-low-price business models.
IF I WERE TO LIST OUT MY TOP
PRIORITIES FOR RETAILERS IN
INDIA, THESE WOULD BE:
Realistic demand estimation
Many chains are grappling with
too much square footage in a certain
geography in the form of very large
INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009

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9/13/2008 12:02:36 AM
The outlook towards retailing needs to change beyond
the few government luminaries who can be identified as
the retail sector’s friends. Whether it is provided “industry
status” or not, the fact is that retailing is an industry in India,
and needs to be treated with more respect.
stores or too many stores. While
allowing for the fact that the market is
significantly different from what it was
10-20 years ago, let us not expect
entire populations to have increased
their consumption multi-fold. Sales
expectations need to be realistic.
Store productivity
For an entrepreneurial business,
each store needs to produce results.
Sure, there will always be some superstar
stores and other locations that are a drag
on the bottom-line. The performance
needs to be analysed on an ongoing
basis, and fairly dispassionately. Store
productivity is a function of merchandise
availability, store operations, advertising
to build customer traffic and a host of
other factors. However, unless the store
is a marquee location (which very few
are), there is no excuse for sustained
losses. Fortunately, Indian management
teams are today less scared of damage
to their reputations, and more businesslike when it comes to taking hard
decisions on resizing, relocating or
simply shutting doors.
Pace your growth
Think of a teenager who gets into a
growth spurt, and suddenly adds length
to his legs. The gait becomes ungainly
and he doesn’t really know what to
do with the extra inches. Many Indian
retailers have gone through a similar
disproportionate growth spurt. While
stores have grown, the sophistication of
the business has not. Let’s remember,
the race for retail market leadership is a
marathon, not a sprint. The appropriate
rate of growth should be determined by
42

organisational capabilities, rather than
what others are doing in the market.
People
There is no shortage of people
in India, as one of the leaders of the
industry pointed out a few months ago.
Let’s stop creating an artificial scarcity.
There are people around who have
been in modern retail trade in India for
decades and are committed to it – they
have the experience. There are others
who have only recently entered but need
direction and training. The investment
in these two sets of people will possibly
provide longer lasting returns than
artificially inflated compensations for
round-robin resumes.
A major “macro” risk to my mind
is that retail is seen through narrow
lens both by itself as well by as the
Government and its various arms.
In most cases, the Government’s
various departments continue to treat
retail as an incidental trading activity,
or as a milking cow through indirect
and direct taxes. The outlook towards
retailing needs to change beyond
the few government luminaries who
can be identified as the retail sector’s
friends. Whether it is provided “industry
status” or not, the fact is that retailing
is an industry in India, and needs to
be treated with more respect. Even the
local kiranawala adds significantly to the
community; even the fragmented market
association keeps a vital part of the local
ecosystem alive and ticking.
The other side of the story, the
retail sector’s perspective of itself,
also needs to change. Retailers need
to look beyond promoting short term

consumption. As they grow larger, they
are beginning to have a disproportionate
impact on society, lifestyles, income
distribution and the broader economic
fabric of the country. In most developed
markets retailers realise how much
change they can drive, and many are
using this power to benefit themselves
and their societies at large. As Indian
retailers grow in scale, I think it would
be wise to build the “corporate social
responsibility” gene into the DNA at this
very early stage.
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
Given recent developments, some
people may feel that the retail boom is
over and it may already be too late to
enter the Indian market. I beg to differ: I
believe there is still a lot of steam, a lot
of energy in the Indian market.
In fact, it would be most appropriate
to quote Shah Rukh Khan from Om
Shanti Om, “Picture abhi baaki hai, mere
dost!” (“The movie isn’t over yet, my
friend!”)
The road to modernising the
retail sector in India is long, and we
have only taken the first few steps
yet. Economically difficult times are
wonderful opportunities for shedding
flab, challenging existing business
models and assumptions, and also
provide great frameworks for building
efficient and lasting companies.
In closing, I would like to borrow a
theme from the two great growth sectors
in Indian retail: food, and fashion.
Both thrive on change. Both thrive on
freshness. And that could be the winning
theme across the Indian retail sector.
Here’s to a fresh start in 2009! ■

INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009

1_1_THE INDIAN MARKET_THIRD EYESIGHT.indd 42

9/13/2008 12:02:36 AM

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The Indian Retail Market

  • 1. THE INDIAN RETAIL MARKET By Devangshu Dutta Devangshu Dutta is chief executive of Third Eyesight (website: www.thirdeyesight.in), a specialist consulting firm focussed on the retail and consumer products sector. Third Eyesight works with brand and market leaders with sales of over US$ 80 billion, as well as small and start-up businesses. 1_1_THE INDIAN MARKET_THIRD EYESIGHT.indd 34 9/13/2008 12:02:07 AM
  • 2. OPPORTUNITY INDIA Over the last few years India has had one of the highest GDP growth rates, across the world, and consistently. In the last two years, GDP growth is estimated to have been 9.6 per cent (2006-07) and 9 per cent (2007-08). A combination of private and public investments in recent years, as well as steady liberalisation of regulations, has created a situation that is unique in India’s history as an independent country, where business growth has lead to individual prosperity which is, in turn, leading to explosive growth of further business opportunities. Although India’s per capita income still places it in the list of “developing countries”, a significant population has emerged that is truly middle-class. Rising incomes have created visible shifts in consumption patterns. Certainly, more Indians regularly consume cereal flakes, processed cheese and fruit- based drinks for breakfast than did ten years ago. A generation has grown to adulthood wrapped in ready-to-wear clothing (with visits to the tailor mainly for wedding trousseaux). And, yes, Indian consumers are increasingly welcoming modern retail environments over the traditional. These economic developments have attracted the attention of both domestic and international consumergoods companies and retailers, and several of these companies have seen annual growth rates 20-50 per cent in the current decade. Many of the new entrants into the retail sector are large business groups that have set up modern retail chains whose share, although still small, is growing year-onyear. This growth of modern retailing is also having an impact on the processes and the infrastructure deployed for the retail sector. These businesses are run as true chains which require processes and systems similar to any chain-store business anywhere else in the world The Indian Market including merchandising, sourcing, human resource management, logistics and store operations. These modern retail stores demand Grade-A buildings for shopping centres, with associated infrastructure and services within them. Therefore this, in turn, has created a growing opportunity for companies that are manufacturers or vendors of consumer products, suppliers of other goods that are used within a retail business or companies providing services to the retail sector. In the rush to grow, while challenges have been acknowledged, none of them have appeared seriously debilitating in the long term, until possibly now. During the years 2003 through 2007, news headlines mainly focussed on joint-ventures or strategic alliances, new store openings, new format launches, and mega-investment plans. If human resources were mentioned, it was about the apparent domestic shortage, about the expatriate talent being pulled in, and about incredible salaries. If shopping centres and retail space was studied, it INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009 1_1_THE INDIAN MARKET_THIRD EYESIGHT.indd 35 35 9/13/2008 12:02:12 AM
  • 3. was the phenomenal growth in square footage and the increasing scale of the new malls that was the focus. Suddenly, however, the tide in the press seems to have turned. There’s mention of “slow” growth plans of major retail joint ventures. There’s whisperings and denials about lay-offs, accompanied by some high-visibility exits. It would be tempting to read the signs as evidence that the previous growth was based on hype, which has run out of steam. It would be tempting, and it would also be too simplistic. The fact is that macroeconomic factors are also acting as dampeners in 2008, and the year may be marked in the recent history of India’s modern retail sector for the dawn of realism. Just as the growth of the retail sector was reaching into the not so profitable geographies and beginning to ride on not very efficient structures, economic growth has begun to slow down dramatically. From a 9 per centplus growth rate in previous years, a variety of agencies expect GDP to grow between 7.5 and 7.9 per cent in 2008-09. Further, the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council forecasts a GDP growth rate of 6.8 per cent in 2009-10. What’s more, 2006 and 2007 have brought about phenomenal increases in two critical cost heads: real estate and human resource. So on the one hand, retailers are facing dramatically higher operating costs, and on the other hand demand seems to be weaker than they have expected. For businesses that have been launched in the last 5-7 years, such a situation is completely new. ESTIMATING THE DEMAND – STILL AN ART? Since the early years in the decade, most retail chains have grown quickly by identifying new sites and replicating existing successful business models and formats. Typically, the growth was limited in its geographic spread, and the underlying consumption pattern differences between the existing markets and the new locations were not stark enough to be immediately visible. Much of the growth, in fact, came from new stores in the larger cities, including the metros, mini-metros and the next tier markets. This high replicability has allowed the businesses to rapidly scale up into becoming truly national chains, and the presence of modern retail formats has become visible among the larger cities and towns. As the companies have begun to feel “saturated” in the larger cities, they have gradually moved towards the smaller towns, with their existing product-price-format offer tweaked slightly. However, the ethnic, linguistic and cultural diversity of India’s 28 states and seven Union Territories makes it less like any other single nation-state and more like a collection of countries such as the European Union. The result is sharp differences in income, tastes, habits, and culture, all of which present a challenge for consumer products and retail companies in terms of product and pricing mix. Most European brands do not approach different markets within the EU with identical strategies. So why should we believe that the business formula that works in one part of India will work in exactly the same way in other parts? A bigger issue is the realistic estimation of the target population. There are cases where the demand has been grossly overestimated, and the business infrastructure and investment plans are over-weighted by these expectations. Estimates of 200-300 million middle class (50-60 million households) sound very attractive, but by what measure of income and spending standards? Going by the pricing of many of the brands in the market today, it would be logical to use developed market income standards. If we use global income standards the middle class numbers are much smaller. The number India European Union 28 States, Constituents 7 Union 27 Countries Territories 22 (over 1,600 Languages 23 dialects) Area Population (est.) 36 3,287,590 km2 4,324,782 km² 1,132,446,000 497,198,740 INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009 1_1_THE INDIAN MARKET_THIRD EYESIGHT.indd 36 9/13/2008 12:02:17 AM
  • 4. OPPORTUNITY INDIA of households earning truly middle class annual household incomes (not adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity), is less than 5 million. Of course, the upside is that the growth rate in this income class is estimated to have been over 20% a year during the current decade and this group is forecast to comprise over 3.7 million households or about 20 million individuals by the end of the decade. There are few other markets in the world where the target population displays a growth of over 20% a year! Moreover, the annual growth rate of the incomes earned among this population is also the highest in the country. Further, a large proportion of this population is concentrated among the metropolises, as mentioned earlier. So it is a nice market to be in, if the business plan is sized appropriately. You can expect some homogeneity based on the socio-economic classification, and the geographical reach is also limited, allowing for organic growth. A specific challenge for companies wishing to enter with a “western” business model or product mix is that, even through its most controlled years, India has been a market economy (unlike China’s decades of a completely centrally controlled economy). Therefore, in most consumer products there are several domestic brands and Indian avatars of foreign brands available, even if the choice is narrower than on the shelves of western supermarkets. Competing offers are available, whether from Indian companies or Indian subsidiaries of global consumer products companies. In that sense, India is not a virgin market. There is already some (or significant) amount of marketing noise and clutter, created by the existing competition. It is vital, therefore, for any company to identify the true overlap between its offering and the most appropriate consumer segment(s) in India to assess the real short-term and mid-term potential for its retail business. THE URBAN RETAIL OPPORTUNITY AND CHALLENGE While we are on the subject of the cities, it is very pertinent to look at the spread of the urban population. As India’s population moves increasingly into cities, it is the larger Estimated Growth of Major Metropolitan Centres Estimated Population of Major Conurbations (million) 1991 2001 2005 Greater Mumbai 12.6 16.4 19.9 Delhi (National Capital Region) 8.4 12.8 19.7 Kolkata 11.0 13.2 15.7 Chennai 5.4 6.4 7.6 Bangalore 4.1 5.7 7.1 Hyderabad 4.3 5.5 6.7 Sources: Various The Indian Market cities (Class 1, with a population of over 100,000) that are growing the most. From 308 Class 1 towns, the number of Class 1 towns and cities in India had grown to 643 in the 2001 census, and are estimated to hold about threequarters of the urban population. These cities are also economic magnets. No matter how attractive the new boomtowns may sound, the larger cities still pull in huge numbers of immigrants from the smaller cities, towns and villages, keeping the ecosystem vibrant. Within these, in terms of economic potential for retail businesses, it is the tier I cities (metros and mini-metros) that are the still unmatched. In 2001, the top eight cities were estimated to have 40 per cent of the urban disposable income, and despite rising costs and rising competition these remain the most attractive market for a company looking to establish a new retail business. In socio-economic terms there is more homogeneity available to a brand wishing to tap into a critical mass of customers, discretionary incomes are higher (in absolute not just percentage terms), and the infrastructure available to service the consumer is better. Of course, the side effects of the population overloading are now visible, INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009 1_1_THE INDIAN MARKET_THIRD EYESIGHT.indd 37 37 9/13/2008 12:02:22 AM
  • 5. While households in cities such as Chandigarh and Ludhiana have high surplus incomes compared to Megacities, their much smaller populations force marketers to treat them as niche markets. ever more, on the cities’ infrastructure and governance. And some of the overloading is contributed by the development of shopping centre space. The growth of modern retail has brought with it a rapid expansion in shopping centre space. This is both an opportunity and a challenge. While the extraordinary growth of shopping centres has provided more space for brands and modern retailers to grow their business, much of the growth has been concentrated in the metropolises. Almost half the shopping centre space by the end of 2007 is estimated to have come up in the conurbations of Mumbai and Delhi. This “over-shopping” could potentially lead to the failure of a significant number of these malls. The failure may not result in outright closure – the better sites may change ownership, while others might get repurposed as office blocks or other commercial projects – but it will be painful, nevertheless. Paradoxically, despite the proliferation of malls, for retailers and brands high real estate rental costs are the possibly the biggest headache. In many instances, brands have signedon high-rent shops with the aim of balancing their portfolio over time, and fully expect these shops not to make money in the foreseeable future. Further, the intensive development of malls, without adequate zoning and planning of support infrastructure such as roads and public transportation is now stressing not just the city, but the malls themselves. Even if there is adequate parking space within the mall (as compared to a few years ago), what 38 good is it if a two kilometre stretch of road before the mall is choked with traffic moving at 2-3 kilometres an hour? The convenience of shopping under one roof is totally outweighed by the inconvenience of spending thrice the amount of time on the road, and is a critical deterrent to a serious shopper who is being targeted by the tenants of the shopping mall. TIER 2 AND 3 CITIES – A WORK IN PROGRESS A recent study by NCAER and Future Capital Research compared 20 cities, and classified them into the Megacities (metros and mini-metros), Boomtowns and Niche Cities. The naming of these groups is quite telling. Megacities on this list include Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Pune, and have approximately 50% of their income as surplus after household expenses (other than Kolkata and Pune which show surpluses in the 30s). They have large populations, and combined with the surpluses, this up to a massive economic opportunity. However, the smaller cities have been developing into economic hubs in their own right. If population is a key factor, then Surat would be classified as a metro. It has a high average household income, as well as a high surplus. Similarly, Nagpur, with its logistically important location is also developing into an important market. Along with Lucknow and Jaipur, households in these cities have seen double-digit booms in terms of income growth since 2005, a trend also seen in the Megacities. This trend of income growth, infrastructure development, trickling of business hubs into the 2nd and 3rd tier cities, will continue to broaden the base of modern retail and distribution further outside of the major cities. On the other hand, while households in cities such as Chandigarh and Ludhiana have high surplus incomes comparable to the Megacities, the much smaller base of population would force marketers to treat them as niche markets until a critical mass develops over the next few years. INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009 1_1_THE INDIAN MARKET_THIRD EYESIGHT.indd 38 9/13/2008 12:02:27 AM
  • 6. OPPORTUNITY INDIA Thus, while much has been made about the boom in the smaller cities and towns, the formulaic approach of rolling out the same business model will certainly not work. The signs of overestimation of demand in Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities is visible in instances of downsizing of store-space by prominent retailers, as well as relocation or closure of some of the new stores which have not performed to expectation. THE TUG OF WAR TO MODERNISE RETAIL In my opinion retail is fundamentally an organic business. Countries that have displayed inorganic growth of modern retail through large-scale corporatisation tend to be economies that have developed rapidly in the last 20-25 years. Among these are the East Asian economies and the former communist Eastern European countries. Three critical factors that have enabled the disproportionate and rapid growth of corporate retail in these countries are: financial muscle, a bank of real estate and strong political linkages. In other countries the high share of modern retail has grown over many more decades. In other countries such as those in western Europe and North America, retail consolidation has happened over many more decades, boosted occasionally by phases of economic boom (such as the 1920s, the 1950s and 1960s, and then the 1980s). Many observers have imagined that India’s retail growth would follow the East Asian and Eastern European countries’ pattern, and have projected that India will reach a state of significant consolidation through corporate retail businesses by 2015. If that were to happen it would be a rather sad “monoculturisation” of the business. Fortunately, I believe, that it is not likely to happen easily. Firstly, the modernisation of retail trade has typically moved in step with broader economic and infrastructural development. If we use per capita retail sales as a surrogate measure for the overall economic development of a country in conventional terms, the share of modern retail is closely correlated with that (see the accompanying table). Viewed through that lens, the Indian retail sector is still very far down on the list, and is likely to remain fairly fragmented for some time to come. Secondly, India has a strong entrepreneurial and organic retail The Indian Market ecosystem (not just retailers, but also suppliers and support organisations). Given the diversity of the market, and the sustained fragmentation of consumer needs, I believe the growth of India’s retail sector will not be driven by large companies alone, although they are helping to accelerate the process of sophistication – indigenous, noncorporate retailers and their suppliers have a strong role to play in the ongoing development. I believe the Indian retail sector will evolve along a path that may be a hybrid, and in fact, may be closer to the European and American model, with a significant amount of entrepreneurial competition dominating the landscape. Therefore, it is important for the executives in corporate retail organisations to think innovatively, as an entrepreneur would – think truly like a “dukaandaar” (shopkeeper). Country Est. Share of Organised Retail (%) Est. Per Capita Retail Sales (US $) USA 85 9,973 Japan 66 9,249 United Kingdom 80 7,851 France 80 7,124 Germany 80 5,109 South Korea 15 4,144 Czech Republic 30 3,301 Poland 20 3,150 Hungary 30 2,376 Russia 33 1,940 Brazil 36 1,520 40 1,359 Malaysia 55 1,264 Thailand I believe the Indian retail sector will evolve along a path that may be a hybrid, and in fact, may be closer to the European and American model, with a significant amount of entrepreneurial competition dominating the landscape. Argentina 40 1,043 Indonesia 30 665 China 20 599 Philippines 35 591 Pakistan 1 404 Vietnam 22 309 India 4 287 Source: Various, including ICRIER and Third Eyesight Analysis INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009 1_1_THE INDIAN MARKET_THIRD EYESIGHT.indd 39 39 9/13/2008 12:02:28 AM
  • 7. Would a dukaandaar open a store in a place where he has no hopes ever of making money? Would he consistently follow this strategy for years? Would he believe that he is building brand equity and goodwill by doing so, that will sustain him in the future? The honest answer to all those questions would be an unqualified “no”. Any long-term strategy can only be built on the premise that the business will be sustainable for that term. If the short-term cashflows are not available to keep the business alive, no amount of long-term thinking will help, as some retailers have recently acknowledged while shutting stores or entire businesses. It is also important for the corporate dukaandaars to continue to evolve relationships with the fragmented supply base, and support the growth of indigenous national-scale suppliers. 40 MODELS FOR INCLUSION Inclusive growth has become a buzzword in recent years. However, I believe that India is one of the few major economies where it is more than just a buzzword. In 2006, at the National Retail Summit organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry, I expressed the concern that we were getting too preoccupied with the western model of urban economic development and consumption and ignoring the gap that was being created in India (the text based on that presentation is available on Third Eyesight’s website). To my surprise, I had no fewer than 60 conversations during the day about the subject, many of them with senior managers in large consumer goods and retail companies. Clearly, the thought of sharing the growth and prosperity more widely does strike a chord with many more Indian urbanites than one would realise. What’s more, quite a few companies are actually taking a direct approach into bridging the gap. There is no one single model that is applicable to creating these bridges. Some – large companies such as ITC and Mahindra or smaller ventures such as Drishtee – have created retail businesses that also act as local exchanges of services and goods in the INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009 1_1_THE INDIAN MARKET_THIRD EYESIGHT.indd 40 9/13/2008 12:02:28 AM
  • 8. OPPORTUNITY INDIA villages. Many of them include villagers as co-entrepreneurs through franchise structures, thus helping to generate and retain wealth within the locality. Others – such as Fabindia among the visible, or Khamir and Dastkaar – are channels for rural artisans to participate in the economic growth as suppliers to the burgeoning urban demand. Food retailers have started coopting farmers into supplying to them directly, where possible. The attempt is to bypass middlemen who act as aggregators, thus making more margins available to both retailer and farmer. Many farmers are indeed happy to put in some extra investment in minor equipment and some effort, to help grade, sort and clean the produce, so as to get a still better price. Yet, certainly, more could be done. For instance, how about if the largest modern retailers in the country created a permanent display for regional crafts in all their stores, and took these along as they grow their chains in the coming years? And how about retailers growing businesses through demand generated by economic growth in the much smaller towns? By encouraging regional suppliers and local buying (as opposed to the central purchase mindset), not only would retail chains be better merchandised for local needs, but also be plugged more into the local economy. Let us not ignore the possibility of local retailers who are right now “flying under the radar” to become important factors in the growth of these smaller towns. Demand generation in tTier III towns and semi-urban areas will accelerate as the logistical connectivity improves and shipping costs decline through multimodal transport. There is significant investment happening in both road and rail connectivity, and the newly well-connected dots on India’s map are visibly more prosperous than earlier. As these developments continue, we The Indian Market Reacting to the high real estate costs, brands have begun looking at the possibility of generating higher gross margins. In most cases, this has meant that selling prices are pushed up, rather than sourcing costs being reduced. should fully expect strong retail chains to begin building up, first locally and then regionally. When we speculate about who India’s Wal-Mart might be, we shouldn’t forget that the world’s largest company emerged from sleepy, semi-rural locations in the US, and similar developments might happen in India as well. FACING THE CHALLENGES The Indian retail sector also has some distinct environmental challenges that are bigger than the specific economic blip it is facing right now. For instance, to my mind retail is an integral part of urban infrastructure, but in most cities retail is a sideshow for urban planners. Either the space provided is too little, or laid out in such a manner that no sensible retailer can expect to have a sustainable and profitable store in that location. Or, if a large space is provided for the private development of shopping centres, the public transportation connections are next to nil, while the car-carrying capacity of the connecting roads is usually poor. Some of the other challenges are related to the Indian government regulations controlling the sector. As an example, in the area of fresh produce, some states still have regulations that restrict the wholesale trading of the commodities to the mandis, or controlled market yards. This means that the consolidation and processing of farm produce is more difficult and expensive. Real estate costs are an ongoing challenge for retailers, especially those that wish to develop mall-based businesses. Some mall owners have begun evolving from being “builders” to mall managers with a long-term view on creating a business of shopping centre management, and have begun linking their rentals to the revenues actually generated by their retail tenants. However, in several cases, the real estate costs are still in the double digits. Reacting to the high real estate costs, brands have begun looking at the possibility of generating higher gross margins to compensate. In most cases, this has meant that selling prices are pushed up, rather than sourcing costs being reduced. While the consumer has been largely transparent to these increases in the last couple of years, I don’t believe this to be a sustainable margin strategy. The cracks are already showing, in the steadily increasing volumes sold under discounts, and the emergence of discount retailers who sell off-season and surplus branded merchandise. The message, clearly, is: the real, sustainable, price is at least 25-40% lower than the MRP The market . looks ripe for the emergence of everyday-low-price business models. IF I WERE TO LIST OUT MY TOP PRIORITIES FOR RETAILERS IN INDIA, THESE WOULD BE: Realistic demand estimation Many chains are grappling with too much square footage in a certain geography in the form of very large INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009 1_1_THE INDIAN MARKET_THIRD EYESIGHT.indd 41 41 9/13/2008 12:02:36 AM
  • 9. The outlook towards retailing needs to change beyond the few government luminaries who can be identified as the retail sector’s friends. Whether it is provided “industry status” or not, the fact is that retailing is an industry in India, and needs to be treated with more respect. stores or too many stores. While allowing for the fact that the market is significantly different from what it was 10-20 years ago, let us not expect entire populations to have increased their consumption multi-fold. Sales expectations need to be realistic. Store productivity For an entrepreneurial business, each store needs to produce results. Sure, there will always be some superstar stores and other locations that are a drag on the bottom-line. The performance needs to be analysed on an ongoing basis, and fairly dispassionately. Store productivity is a function of merchandise availability, store operations, advertising to build customer traffic and a host of other factors. However, unless the store is a marquee location (which very few are), there is no excuse for sustained losses. Fortunately, Indian management teams are today less scared of damage to their reputations, and more businesslike when it comes to taking hard decisions on resizing, relocating or simply shutting doors. Pace your growth Think of a teenager who gets into a growth spurt, and suddenly adds length to his legs. The gait becomes ungainly and he doesn’t really know what to do with the extra inches. Many Indian retailers have gone through a similar disproportionate growth spurt. While stores have grown, the sophistication of the business has not. Let’s remember, the race for retail market leadership is a marathon, not a sprint. The appropriate rate of growth should be determined by 42 organisational capabilities, rather than what others are doing in the market. People There is no shortage of people in India, as one of the leaders of the industry pointed out a few months ago. Let’s stop creating an artificial scarcity. There are people around who have been in modern retail trade in India for decades and are committed to it – they have the experience. There are others who have only recently entered but need direction and training. The investment in these two sets of people will possibly provide longer lasting returns than artificially inflated compensations for round-robin resumes. A major “macro” risk to my mind is that retail is seen through narrow lens both by itself as well by as the Government and its various arms. In most cases, the Government’s various departments continue to treat retail as an incidental trading activity, or as a milking cow through indirect and direct taxes. The outlook towards retailing needs to change beyond the few government luminaries who can be identified as the retail sector’s friends. Whether it is provided “industry status” or not, the fact is that retailing is an industry in India, and needs to be treated with more respect. Even the local kiranawala adds significantly to the community; even the fragmented market association keeps a vital part of the local ecosystem alive and ticking. The other side of the story, the retail sector’s perspective of itself, also needs to change. Retailers need to look beyond promoting short term consumption. As they grow larger, they are beginning to have a disproportionate impact on society, lifestyles, income distribution and the broader economic fabric of the country. In most developed markets retailers realise how much change they can drive, and many are using this power to benefit themselves and their societies at large. As Indian retailers grow in scale, I think it would be wise to build the “corporate social responsibility” gene into the DNA at this very early stage. LOOKING TO THE FUTURE Given recent developments, some people may feel that the retail boom is over and it may already be too late to enter the Indian market. I beg to differ: I believe there is still a lot of steam, a lot of energy in the Indian market. In fact, it would be most appropriate to quote Shah Rukh Khan from Om Shanti Om, “Picture abhi baaki hai, mere dost!” (“The movie isn’t over yet, my friend!”) The road to modernising the retail sector in India is long, and we have only taken the first few steps yet. Economically difficult times are wonderful opportunities for shedding flab, challenging existing business models and assumptions, and also provide great frameworks for building efficient and lasting companies. In closing, I would like to borrow a theme from the two great growth sectors in Indian retail: food, and fashion. Both thrive on change. Both thrive on freshness. And that could be the winning theme across the Indian retail sector. Here’s to a fresh start in 2009! ■ INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2009 1_1_THE INDIAN MARKET_THIRD EYESIGHT.indd 42 9/13/2008 12:02:36 AM