Webinar Series on COVID-19 and Inequality, 7 October 2021, More information at: https://www.oecd.org/wise/events/covid-and-inequality-webinars.htm

2. WISE Covid-19 and Inequality Series
The Impact of COVID-19 on Local Communities and Inclusive Growth
Charlotte Alldritt
Director
Centre for Progressive Policy (CPP)

3. Contents
• The OECD before the pandemic
• National responses
• The impact of Covid-19 so far
• Policy lessons for the UK and beyond​

4. Community resilience was waning pre-pandemic
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
%
CHANGE
Average annual wage growth in real terms, % change
2000-2009 2010-2019
Source: OECD statistics

5. Social spending growth slowed considerably
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
PERCENTAGE
POINT
Difference in per head social spending growth 2000/2010 and
2010/2017
Source: OECD statistics

6. …taking a toll on healthy life expectancy
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
YEARS
Difference in Healthy Life Years, between 2010 and 2018
Source: OECD statistics

7. Covid lockdowns meant economic shutdown
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
%
CHANGE
GDP per head growth, 2019 to 2020
Source: OECD statistics

8. Steps were taken to soften the blow
• As the pandemic hit, many nations took the unprecedented step to “close” their economies.
• To prevent the inevitable fallout impacting households and communities, steps were taken across
the OECD to support people to adapt to this new way of life:

9. …but inequalities have still been compounded
• Very few countries have managed to suppress the virus. In at least 10 OECD nations so far,
including the United States and the United Kingdom the death toll per 100,000 has exceeded 200 –
landing a significant blow to the social fabric of countries across the world.
• But lockdown restrictions have taken their own toll, ramping up pressures on communities and public
services.
In the UK we’ve seen:
• ‘Left behind’ neighbourhoods disproportionately vulnerable to Covid-19 including higher mortality
rates. This on top of lower educational attainment, higher rates of cancer and greater mental health
challenges compared to other equally deprived places.
• The learning loss for disadvantaged pupils is estimated to have undone between a third and two-
thirds of the progress made over the past decade in closing the gap among primary school children.
OCSI (2020) Economy Data Dive for the APPG for ‘left behind’ neighbourhoods. Oxford: Oxford Consultants for Social Inclusion https://www.appg-
leftbehindneighbourhoods.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/OCSI-Economic-Data-dive-for-the-APPG.pdf
See: OCSI (2021) Health Data Dive for the APPG for ‘left behind’ neighbourhoods. Oxford: Oxford Consultants
for Social Inclusion, and https://www.appg-leftbehindneighbourhoods.org.uk/wp-
content/uploads/2020/09/OCSI-Economic-Data-dive-for-the-APPG.pdf

10. Inclusive growth is more important than ever
• In the UK, CPP forecast output in the twenty most vulnerable
places 18% below pre-crisis trend after five years.
• Macroeconomic picture hasn’t been as bleak as expected at the
start of the pandemic, but labour market outlook uncertain over
the medium – longer term.
• Triple squeeze of Covid lockdown and ‘bounce back’, Brexit
and longer-term shifts (e.g. automation, green economy).
• Widening educational inequalities undermine the foundations of
inclusive growth for the future.
GVA indexed to pre-crisis trend 5 years after lockdown by local authority See CPP, Back from the Brink (May 2020)

11. … demanding a system wide response
• Poverty reduction – poverty is a major driver of poor social outcomes. Tackling poverty would
improve health, skills and resilience allowing people to better adapt to new social challenges. This
requires a strong effort to improve labour market conditions, expand work opportunities and
bolster social security systems.
• Public service investment – spending cuts in the wake of the financial crisis hollowed out public
services across the OECD. Investment in social infrastructure is critical to reduce inequalities,
increase community resilience and drive shared prosperity.
• Empowering communities – the pandemic has shown the value of strong local leadership. CPP
argues each place should be able to define and fulfil its own vision for clean, inclusive growth with
national policy working with – not against – this at local and regional level.
• Rigorous future planning – governments must take steps to enhance their ability to mitigate social,
economic and environmental risks before they begin to harm communities. Greater collaboration
between states is vital, including via the work of the OECD.

12. Contact Us
@CentreProPol
@calldritt
calldritt@progressive-policy.net

13. Additional slides (if needed)

14. What is inclusive growth?

15. How can we make inclusive growth happen?
1. Build a shared, binding mission
2. Identify local barriers, levers and metrics
3. Leverage, target and align resources
4. Make institutions effective across organisational boundaries
5. Encourage businesses to play their role in inclusive growth
6. Move to integrated service delivery and preventative spend

16. How does inclusive growth link to levelling up?
In July 2021 the UK Prime Minister set out again his vision for levelling up, responding
to several of CPP’s criticisms on the agenda to-date, including:
 Inequalities within regions can be bigger than those between them. Inclusive
growth seeks systemic change to our model of growth, policy making and
investment – applicable across the UK.
 It will take time to bring about real change – there will be few quick fixes.
 It will need investment beyond physical infrastructure (e.g., roads, rail) and the
quality of our social infrastructure matters too. Inclusive growth brings social policy
and public services within our approach to economic prosperity.
 Understanding and adapting to place is vital. CPP argues each place should be able
to define and fulfil its own vision for clean, inclusive growth with national policy
working with – not against – this at local and regional level.
BUT… Levelling up needs to be core to government’s
macroeconomic strategy, driven by place and public services