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Trends and Directions What’s in the future? December 2003 Mark Cathcart
Some one asked about futures… <ul><li>Energy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Electricity will get personal – solar textiles </li></u...
Some one asked about futures… <ul><li>Environment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Polar bears become extinct by 2100? </li></ul></ul...
Some one asked about futures… <ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Corporations get more entrenched in education </li><...
Some one asked about futures… <ul><li>Science </li></ul><ul><ul><li>RNAi – Middleware for the Gene – NBT </li></ul></ul><u...
Some one asked about futures… <ul><li>And oh yes - Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Grid integrates with commercial IT </li></u...
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Trends and Directions, Crystal Ball glazing from 12/2003

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Here for the fun is an old presentation I found from 2003. I didn't do a great job in keeping citations for some of the claims but it makes interesting reading almost 6-years later

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Trends and Directions, Crystal Ball glazing from 12/2003

  1. 1. Trends and Directions What’s in the future? December 2003 Mark Cathcart
  2. 2. Some one asked about futures… <ul><li>Energy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Electricity will get personal – solar textiles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Waves my surpass wind as an energy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Food </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More fish will be farmed than fished! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>As much as 20% in the USA alone </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Health </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Feet will continue to get bigger! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Average foot size in 1900’s – 4; 1980’s – 7; now – 9! </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Obesity will continue to “spread” around the globe </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Demographics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population will decelerate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Need for condoms will double by 2015! </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Poverty mapping (aka social demographics) becomes a must have! </li></ul></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Some one asked about futures… <ul><li>Environment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Polar bears become extinct by 2100? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2/3 of Worlds population will have water shortages by 2050 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Consumption tripled in 50-years </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ Water wars” are on the way – Iceland/Mexico/Pakistan/India </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More refugees created by dams and development than by persecution </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Governance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Voters vanish worldwide </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>More money spent on fewer votes </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Jury trials may disappear in USA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Globalisation continues to create culture clashes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Governments must learn how to solve </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Economics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The future of money will be digital, virtual and universal! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will there be books ? Maybe, maybe not! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Core context for Intellectual property directions </li></ul></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Some one asked about futures… <ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Corporations get more entrenched in education </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>May open own institutes of education/technology </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Future workforce </li></ul><ul><ul><li>May be problems ahead </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Potential 10-million shortfall in USA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of key skills are early signs </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Top college graduates turning away from science and engineering </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturers, Restaurants etc. having problems </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Aging population in work </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Needs substantial changes to national policies </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Faster paced, better-educated, harder-working </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Time increasingly world’s most precious commodity </li></ul></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Some one asked about futures… <ul><li>Science </li></ul><ul><ul><li>RNAi – Middleware for the Gene – NBT </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Computers simulate crises before they happen </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Accurate prediction and modelling of climate and tectonics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hand signals will be understood by intelligent environments </li></ul><ul><li>Fabrics mixed with ceremics, electronics, chemicals and plastics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>make really smart clothes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rate of change may soon reach turning point </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ Rabbits competing for food in enclosed field” </li></ul></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Some one asked about futures… <ul><li>And oh yes - Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Grid integrates with commercial IT </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Enabled by web services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Heterogeneous “clusters” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Service Oriented Architecture become the norm </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Enabled by web services </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Enterprise Services Bus </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Business/Application integration and messaging </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Utility/Systems integration and messaging </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ You wait for one bus and two come along” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Micro payments revisited, rejuvenated </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Enabled by web services </li></ul></ul>

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