World 2.0

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Thoughts on world direction and technology

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  • World 2.0

    1. 1. Pete O’Dell [email_address] www.swanisland.net
    2. 2. Context <ul><li>Suspend belief – forget world’s obstacles for today </li></ul><ul><li>World, national, local views </li></ul><ul><li>Future discussion and vision </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Framework </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trends </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emerging markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The “Next Big Thing” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ Where there is no vision, the people perish” </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Proverbs 29:18 </li></ul></ul></ul>
    3. 3. <ul><ul><li>“ Economically, the Internet is just like electricity. First, it’s new and exciting. Then it steadily transforms your economy…Decades later nobody would think to call it the electricity economy. It’s just there.” -- Robert E. Litan, Economic Studies, Brookings Institute </li></ul></ul>“ Today, [we] are functionally linked together in a vast organic system…The earth [is] not only becoming covered by myriads of grains of thought, but becoming enclosed in a single thinking envelope.” --Teilhard de Chardin, 1925 “ There is nothing permanent except change.” – -- Heraclitus (540 – 480 B.C.)
    4. 4. The Dimensional Model of world progress <ul><li>0 dimension – conflict among hunter/gatherer tribes – stay away! </li></ul><ul><li>1 st dimension – trade along natural routes – river valleys, spice routes </li></ul><ul><li>2 nd dimension – sailing ships, trains, automobiles </li></ul><ul><li>3 rd dimension – air travel, air cargo </li></ul><ul><li>4 th dimension – wired, electronic skin around the world starting with the telegraph & telephone </li></ul><ul><li>Decreasing time between each dimension </li></ul><ul><li>Is there a 5 th dimension </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Brave New World – William Knoke (recommended reading!) </li></ul>
    5. 5. A look in the rear-view mirror…. <ul><li>Where were you: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>December 31, 1999 (Y2K) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>September 11, 2001 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What’s happened since then? </li></ul><ul><li>Would you go back if you could? </li></ul><ul><li>What technology has disappeared in your lifetime (telegraph, memos, telex) </li></ul>
    6. 6. <ul><li>New 21 st Century Threats: </li></ul><ul><li>Global terrorism </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global climate change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global crime syndicates (including cyber crime) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global pandemics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global financial crises </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Critical infrastructure breakdowns </li></ul></ul>Source: The Federal Response to Hurricane Katrina: Lessons Learned Disasters Rising!
    7. 7. Scenarios – next 30 years: <ul><li>Upward growth spiral: despite terror, localized conflicts and business cycles, the world marches forward, gaining momentum (as it has since pre-historic time) </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide stagnation: Innovation and economies flatten after an amazing 25 years (Dark Ages lasted several lifetimes) </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide recession/depression: W orld goes into an economic tailspin for an extended period (the Great Depression of the 30’s relived) </li></ul><ul><li>Doomsday: Armageddon, famine, war, the works (SARS gave us a quick look at this) </li></ul>
    8. 8. The World at a crossroad <ul><li>The US/world at war with terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide economic slowdown (recovery?) </li></ul><ul><li>What about China? </li></ul><ul><li>Subprime mortgage meltdown big concern </li></ul><ul><li>Internet & telecom bubble a distant memory </li></ul><ul><li>Can the world absorb Moore’s law? </li></ul><ul><li>US the one legitimate super-power, but under extreme world pressure </li></ul><ul><li>Global have’s and have-not’s </li></ul><ul><li>Problem spread increasing – disease/famine (persistent) to ID/IP theft (emerging) </li></ul>
    9. 9. Intertwined worldwide issues <ul><li>Energy </li></ul><ul><li>Food/water </li></ul><ul><li>Health/disease </li></ul><ul><li>Global warming </li></ul><ul><li>Pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Languages </li></ul><ul><li>Trade blocks </li></ul><ul><li>Intellectual property </li></ul><ul><li>Terrorism/security </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Population growth </li></ul><ul><li>Aging populations </li></ul><ul><li>Religion </li></ul><ul><li>Political </li></ul><ul><li>Standards </li></ul><ul><li>Paradoxes abound </li></ul>
    10. 10. Over-arching trends <ul><li>Shrinking world (globalization/communications) </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid adoption for winners (Internet, cellular, DVD, digital cameras) </li></ul><ul><li>Getting more from less (oil, silicon, acreage, E-Bay) </li></ul><ul><li>24 x 7 world - speeding up, information overload </li></ul><ul><li>English gaining as worldwide language </li></ul><ul><li>Power shifting to the individual - global middle class, very hard to control information, spawning more democratic governments </li></ul><ul><li>Contradictions abound – free/controlled, rich/poor, fat/hungry, engaged/disenchanted </li></ul>
    11. 11. The Information Age: Human Capital/Intellectual Property <ul><li>Few physical resources needed – clean, high paying jobs </li></ul><ul><li>Small groups can build global products </li></ul><ul><li>Small groups can destroy worldwide (virus) </li></ul><ul><li>Bits versus Atoms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EFT versus cement blocks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Napster versus Compact Disks </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Virtuous upward spirals </li></ul>
    12. 12. Business trends <ul><li>Increased productivity & offshore outsourcing </li></ul><ul><li>Mass customization and localization </li></ul><ul><li>Merger of the titans, buy versus build (HP/Compaq, AT&T/ComCast ) </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation in small companies </li></ul><ul><li>Intense drive to streamline and retool operations - little complacency </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid product obsolescence </li></ul><ul><li>Economies of scale are a curse and blessing </li></ul><ul><li>Global companies bigger than countries </li></ul>
    13. 13. Technology trends <ul><li>Digital convergence – data, voice, video </li></ul><ul><li>Internet/WWW connected </li></ul><ul><li>Moore’s law marches on – faster, better, cheaper – chips, storage, & more </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless – all shapes and flavors </li></ul><ul><li>Open source software movement </li></ul><ul><li>Security an increasingly important trend </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 – collective intelligence, collaborative intelligence </li></ul>
    14. 14. Internet trends <ul><li>Great for publishing documents to people </li></ul><ul><li>E-Bay, Mapquest, Amazon, Yahoo </li></ul><ul><li>No end in sight for global adoption </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless access – mobile information </li></ul><ul><li>Broadband growing, phone access the norm </li></ul><ul><li>XML (e X tensible M arkup L anguage) </li></ul><ul><li>Web Services and Web 2.0 have great promise </li></ul><ul><li>Still fragile, frustrating and immature – groaning under the weight of success </li></ul>
    15. 15. Emerging technology today <ul><li>Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) and Smartphones </li></ul><ul><li>RFID and embedded sensors </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel cells – alternative energy </li></ul><ul><li>Home networking </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge management </li></ul><ul><li>Social networking </li></ul><ul><li>Blogging/Life Recording </li></ul>
    16. 16. The Next Big Thing (NBT) <ul><li>Alters the course of mankind – significant impact </li></ul><ul><li>Difficult to predict and understand at the onset – many times fits and starts before taking off </li></ul><ul><li>Generational deployment & incremental improvement </li></ul><ul><li>Early civilizations: Fire, wheel, metal, agriculture, writing, numbers </li></ul><ul><li>Advancing civilizations: gunpowder, compass, printing, interchangeable parts, steam engine, bill of rights </li></ul><ul><li>Recent: Indoor plumbing, medicine, electricity, automobile, airplane, radio, telephone, television, computing </li></ul><ul><li>Collaboration and worldwide knowledge one reason for accelerating pace </li></ul>
    17. 17. Nano-technology – NBT? <ul><li>Really, really small </li></ul><ul><li>Simple - eat escaped oil in ocean </li></ul><ul><li>Complex - eat cholesterol from arteries of a living being </li></ul><ul><li>Sensors – watch for individual cancer cells </li></ul><ul><li>Self replication – clone more of the same </li></ul><ul><li>Physics: Silicon stronger than steel at the molecular level </li></ul>
    18. 18. The Hydrogen Economy–NBT? <ul><li>Alternative to imported oil </li></ul><ul><li>Limitless supply </li></ul><ul><li>Ideal for fuel cells </li></ul><ul><li>Combustion by-product is water </li></ul><ul><li>Manufactured by extra electricity passing through water </li></ul><ul><li>Massive infrastructure change required </li></ul><ul><li>Fixed buildings versus cars! </li></ul>
    19. 19. Biotechnology – NBT? <ul><li>Non-human </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Genetically engineered crops – salt water rice, drought resistant cotton </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cloning and manipulation of animals/pets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Potential to solve many of the world’s problems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fraught with regulation and protest </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Human </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Genome mapping </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cloning and stem cell research debates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Genetic manipulation – cure cancer, AIDS, others </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Extended lifespan through lab based organ creation? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ All my kingdom for a moment of time” - Queen Elizabeth </li></ul></ul>
    20. 20. NBT Discussion <ul><li>Additional candidates? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mind to network link – brain based Google </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unmanned space exploration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ubiquitous wireless computing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Realistic? Barriers? Enablers? </li></ul><ul><li>Timeframe for implementation? </li></ul><ul><li>Impact on society? </li></ul><ul><li>Should there be a NBT X prize? </li></ul>
    21. 21. Parting Thoughts <ul><li>What does all this mean to you? </li></ul><ul><li>What actions will you take? </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ignore </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Invest </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Embrace </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>How do you manage the risks? </li></ul><ul><li>What about your great-grandkids? </li></ul>

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