GTM Research Senior Analyst Cory Honeyman on the State and Future of the U.S. Solar Market.
Presentation from Solar Power International, September 2015
Presenter: Shayle Kann, Senior Vice President, GTM Research
This session will open the conference with a data-driven, visionary outlook on the U.S. solar market from the head of GTM Research. Bringing together analysis of current trends in project finance, regulation, policy and business strategy, this session will help illuminate solar’s future path in the U.S.
Statistics on the wind power market.
Renewable Choice Energy is a leading provider of climate change solutions including green power, carbon offsets, and renewable energy advisory services. Recognized as a trusted partner to numerous major brands, Renewable Choice was the recipient of the prestigious Green Power Supplier of the Year award in 2012 from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and has been featured in hundreds of media outlets. To learn more, visit www.renewablechoice.com.
Presenter: Shayle Kann, Senior Vice President, GTM Research
This session will open the conference with a data-driven, visionary outlook on the U.S. solar market from the head of GTM Research. Bringing together analysis of current trends in project finance, regulation, policy and business strategy, this session will help illuminate solar’s future path in the U.S.
Statistics on the wind power market.
Renewable Choice Energy is a leading provider of climate change solutions including green power, carbon offsets, and renewable energy advisory services. Recognized as a trusted partner to numerous major brands, Renewable Choice was the recipient of the prestigious Green Power Supplier of the Year award in 2012 from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and has been featured in hundreds of media outlets. To learn more, visit www.renewablechoice.com.
Fuel Cell Market is Anticipated To Witness Significant Growth By 2025RugvedPande
Increasing concerns pertaining to energy security along with growing adoption of sustainable energy technology will stimulate the fuel cell market growth
Global warming concerns leading to decarbonization is shifting energy from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The slides briefly touch on different ways of decarbonizing & alternative energy resources.
Green energy is renewable energy that is commercially viable and is used to generate energy around the globe. Green energy extract energy from natural sources such as tides, solar photovoltaic, sun, and wind.
Humic acid is an ingredient obtained from the biodegradation of organic substances such as soil/ humus, peat, and coal.
The global humic acid market is estimated to surpass US$ 1,240.4 million by the end of 2027 in terms of revenue, exhibiting a CAGR of 11.7% during the forecast period (2021 to 2027).
Greenhouse Gas Accounting Scope 2 Guidance: New developments in corporate GHG accounting for electricity. Find out more and download guidance at http://www.ghgprotocol.org/scope_2_guidance
Energy, Sustainability, Energy transition, Leadership
Independent (Siemens sponsored) National Survey of the Energy Professionals in the USA Utility sector on State of the Utility.
Fuel Cell Market is Anticipated To Witness Significant Growth By 2025RugvedPande
Increasing concerns pertaining to energy security along with growing adoption of sustainable energy technology will stimulate the fuel cell market growth
Global warming concerns leading to decarbonization is shifting energy from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The slides briefly touch on different ways of decarbonizing & alternative energy resources.
Green energy is renewable energy that is commercially viable and is used to generate energy around the globe. Green energy extract energy from natural sources such as tides, solar photovoltaic, sun, and wind.
Humic acid is an ingredient obtained from the biodegradation of organic substances such as soil/ humus, peat, and coal.
The global humic acid market is estimated to surpass US$ 1,240.4 million by the end of 2027 in terms of revenue, exhibiting a CAGR of 11.7% during the forecast period (2021 to 2027).
Greenhouse Gas Accounting Scope 2 Guidance: New developments in corporate GHG accounting for electricity. Find out more and download guidance at http://www.ghgprotocol.org/scope_2_guidance
Energy, Sustainability, Energy transition, Leadership
Independent (Siemens sponsored) National Survey of the Energy Professionals in the USA Utility sector on State of the Utility.
Welcome to the 21st edition of the international survey report on Trends in Photovoltaic (PV) Applications up to 2015, provided to you by the IEA PVPS Programme.
The “Trends Report” is one of our flagship publications and a worldwide reference regarding the global photovoltaic market development. The unique series of “Trends Reports” has covered the transition of PV technology from its early and expensive niche market developments in the 1990s to the recent large scale global deployment and increased competitiveness. In contrast to 2014, 2015 has seen an impressive growth and acceleration of the global market deployment with about 50,7 GW of additional installed capacity, 26,5% above 2014, of which about 40 GW were installed in IEA PVPS member countries (2014: 34 GW). As in 2014, China, Japan and the USA lead this important growth, accounting for 33 GW of installed capacity in these 3 countries alone. 8 countries have installed more than 1 GW while another 7 countries have markets above 300 MW. The globally installed total PV capacity is estimated at roughly 228 GW at the end of 2015. Although the price reduction for PV systems has continued its trend for a slower decline in 2015, this year (2016) shows evidence of a more rapid cost reduction, in parallel with a trend towards higher overcapacities in the industry. Concerning PV generation costs and more precisely recently contracted power purchase agreements (PPAs), new record values of below 3 USDcents/kWh have been announced, confirming what is achievable today under very good market and solar resource conditions. The other side of the coin is the observation that large parts of the global PV market (78%) are still driven by financial incentives, accompanied by an increasing share of selfconsumption or net-metering (15%) and about 6% of the market coming from competitive tenders.
Five market trends that are re-shaping C&I energy management and procurementOmar Saadeh
The market for building energy management and procurement solutions is vast and today’s large electricity customers are exposed to an increasingly complex array of opportunities. A growing number of new solutions and upgrades continue to promise enhanced energy consumption and awareness, streamlined day-to-day business processes, and improved operational efficiency. Apart from proven applications such as demand response or commercial solar, an emerging class of utility and wholesale programs further offer energy managers new options to optimize their investments and realize positive project cash flows.
As we build out our C&I Customer Network and coverage into energy procurement and management for large energy consumers, we expect to produce more content in these areas. We’re happy to include folks in this space and take briefing from solution providers including vendors, developers, ESCOs and utilities. Please do reach-out.
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The market for building energy management and procurement solutions is vast and today’s large electricity customers are exposed to an increasingly complex array of opportunities. A growing number of new solutions and upgrades continue to promise enhanced energy consumption and awareness, streamlined day-to-day business processes, and improved operational efficiency. Apart from proven applications such as demand response or commercial solar, an emerging class of utility and wholesale programs further offer energy managers new options to optimize their investments and realize positive project cash flows.
As we build out our C&I Customer Network and coverage into energy procurement and management for large energy consumers, we expect to produce more content in these areas. We’re happy to include folks in this space and take briefing from solution providers including vendors, developers, ESCOs and utilities. Please do reach-out.
Solar power Darkest Before Dawn - McKinsey on Sustainability & Resource Pro...asafeiran
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One of the largest disruptors,
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Business Unusual: Strategic Perspectives on the Utilities Consumer Marketplaceaccenture
A major transformation of utilities market is challenging traditional business and operational models. Accenture analysis of the likely demand disruption scenario points to a significant financial impact on the traditional utility model by 2025. Leading utilities are adapting to the chaining marketplace.
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The global solid state transformer market size reached US$ 214.8 Million in 2023. Looking forward, IMARC Group expects the market to reach US$ 638.7 Million by 2032, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% during 2024-2032.
More Info:- https://www.imarcgroup.com/solid-state-transformer-market
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The global solid state transformer market size reached US$ 187.9 Million in 2022. Looking forward, IMARC Group expects the market to reach US$ 430.2 Million by 2028, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3% during 2023-2028.
More Info:- https://www.imarcgroup.com/solid-state-transformer-market
Power Market Outlook- Grid Transformation and the Impact of Distributed Energ...ScottMadden, Inc.
As DERs continue to proliferate, utilities are piloting the integration of many different resources and partnering with new entities. These activities have important implications for the manner in which the supply chain procures products and services and the types of contracting relationships that will be needed. Learn more about the changes, impacts to utilities, the continuum of regulatory responses, and what it means for the supply chain in this presentation.
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The popularity of functional foods among scientists and common people has been increasing day by day. Awareness and modernization make the consumer think better regarding food and nutrition. Now a day’s individual knows very well about the relation between food consumption and disease prevalence. Humans have a diversity of microbes in the gut that together form the gut microflora. Probiotics are the health-promoting live microbial cells improve host health through gut and brain connection and fighting against harmful bacteria. Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus are the two bacterial genera which are considered to be probiotic. These good bacteria are facing challenges of viability. There are so many factors such as sensitivity to heat, pH, acidity, osmotic effect, mechanical shear, chemical components, freezing and storage time as well which affects the viability of probiotics in the dairy food matrix as well as in the gut. Multiple efforts have been done in the past and ongoing in present for these beneficial microbial population stability until their destination in the gut. One of a useful technique known as microencapsulation makes the probiotic effective in the diversified conditions and maintain these microbe’s community to the optimum level for achieving targeted benefits. Dairy products are found to be an ideal vehicle for probiotic incorporation. It has been seen that the encapsulated microbial cells show higher viability than the free cells in different processing and storage conditions as well as against bile salts in the gut. They make the food functional when incorporated, without affecting the product sensory characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdfJulietMogola
Many companies today use green washing to lure the public into thinking they are conserving the environment but in real sense they are doing more harm. There have been such several cases from very big companies here in Kenya and also globally. This ranges from various sectors from manufacturing and goes to consumer products. Educating people on greenwashing will enable people to make better choices based on their analysis and not on what they see on marketing sites.
Epcon is One of the World's leading Manufacturing Companies.EpconLP
Epcon is One of the World's leading Manufacturing Companies. With over 4000 installations worldwide, EPCON has been pioneering new techniques since 1977 that have become industry standards now. Founded in 1977, Epcon has grown from a one-man operation to a global leader in developing and manufacturing innovative air pollution control technology and industrial heating equipment.
Characterization and the Kinetics of drying at the drying oven and with micro...Open Access Research Paper
The objective of this work is to contribute to valorization de Nephelium lappaceum by the characterization of kinetics of drying of seeds of Nephelium lappaceum. The seeds were dehydrated until a constant mass respectively in a drying oven and a microwawe oven. The temperatures and the powers of drying are respectively: 50, 60 and 70°C and 140, 280 and 420 W. The results show that the curves of drying of seeds of Nephelium lappaceum do not present a phase of constant kinetics. The coefficients of diffusion vary between 2.09.10-8 to 2.98. 10-8m-2/s in the interval of 50°C at 70°C and between 4.83×10-07 at 9.04×10-07 m-8/s for the powers going of 140 W with 420 W the relation between Arrhenius and a value of energy of activation of 16.49 kJ. mol-1 expressed the effect of the temperature on effective diffusivity.
"Understanding the Carbon Cycle: Processes, Human Impacts, and Strategies for...MMariSelvam4
The carbon cycle is a critical component of Earth's environmental system, governing the movement and transformation of carbon through various reservoirs, including the atmosphere, oceans, soil, and living organisms. This complex cycle involves several key processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, and carbon sequestration, each contributing to the regulation of carbon levels on the planet.
Human activities, particularly fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, have significantly altered the natural carbon cycle, leading to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and driving climate change. Understanding the intricacies of the carbon cycle is essential for assessing the impacts of these changes and developing effective mitigation strategies.
By studying the carbon cycle, scientists can identify carbon sources and sinks, measure carbon fluxes, and predict future trends. This knowledge is crucial for crafting policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions, enhancing carbon storage, and promoting sustainable practices. The carbon cycle's interplay with climate systems, ecosystems, and human activities underscores its importance in maintaining a stable and healthy planet.
In-depth exploration of the carbon cycle reveals the delicate balance required to sustain life and the urgent need to address anthropogenic influences. Through research, education, and policy, we can work towards restoring equilibrium in the carbon cycle and ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come.
1. The State and Future of the U.S. Solar Market
September 2015
Cory Honeyman
Senior Analyst, Solar Markets
honeyman@gtmresearch.com
2. www.gtmresearch.com -2-
About Greentech Media
NEWS/ONLINE RESEARCH EVENT
Greentech Media delivers business-to- business
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extends across the clean energy industry with a
focus on solar power and the electric utility
market’s evolution. Greentech Media’s industry-
leading coverage is provided by a team of analysts
from our market intelligence arm, GTM Research,
as well as our world-class journalists and global
network of expert contributors.
GTM Research is the market analysis and
consulting arm of Greentech Media. GTM
Research is comprised of analysts covering solar,
grid edge, and energy storage markets. Our
analysts combine diverse backgrounds in energy,
environmental, emerging technology, information
technology and strategic consulting sectors. This
diverse team provides critical and timely market
analysis in the form of research reports,
consulting, and data subscription services.
Greentech Media and GTM Research experts come
together to produce all of Greentech Media’s industry
conferences throughout the year. These summits
provide a platform for our latest market intelligence
and draw together the industry influencers from
organizations across the value chain.
3. www.gtmresearch.com
1
• U.S. Solar’s Emergence Over The Past Few Years
2
• 3 Reasons Behind 18 GW Over 18 Months
3
• From the Ashes of 2017…Emerges a Distributed Solar Boom
4
• How U.S. Solar Strikes Back between 2018-2020
3
U.S. Solar: Peering Over The Horizon
4. www.gtmresearch.com
80%+ of cumulative solar came online in last 3.5 years Solar gaining steam in broader electricity market too
4
U.S. Solar’s Growing and Going Mainstream…
4%
9% 9%
27%
32%
40%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1H 2015
ShareofNewCapacity(%)
Solar's Share of New Electricity Generating
Capacity Brought Online in the U.S.
7. www.gtmresearch.com
Sluggish Investment In The Sub 1 MW Market Challenging Economics Due to Rate Design
7
Underlying Barriers to Non-Residential Solar Growth
Source: GTM Research/SEIA, Q2 2015 U.S. Solar Market Insight Source: Genability
9. www.gtmresearch.com
• Between 2010 and 1H 2015, steep cost reductions have expanded the
universe of state markets where solar is unchained by state incentive
funding or RPS driven procurement
1
2
3
9
Between 2H 2015-2016: 3 Reasons Behind 18 GW of Growth
11. www.gtmresearch.com
Utility PV Pipeline (GWdc):
RPS vs. Non-RPS Driven Procurement
7.9
47%8.7
53%
Outside/Above and Beyond RPS Obligations
Driven by RPS Obligations
16.6
GWdc
Non-RPS Driven Pipeline:
Breakdown by Procurement Mechanism
Utility
RFPs
43%
PURPA
31%
UOG
7%
Offsite
C&I
12%
Wholesale Hedge
Contracts
5%
Bilateral
Negotiation
s…
7.9
GWdc
11
Most notably this trend is happening in utility scale PV…
Source: GTM Research, U.S. Utility PV Market Tracker
12. www.gtmresearch.com
Source: GTM Research/SEIA, Q2 2015 U.S. Solar Market Insight
6%
22%
42% 49%
94%
78%
58% 51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 1H 2015
ShareofNationalResidentialPV
installations(%)
Without State Incentive With State Incentive
12
Resilient Residential PV Economics vs. Incentive Depletion
13. www.gtmresearch.com
• Between 2010 and 1H 2015, steep cost reductions have expanded the
universe of state markets where solar is unchained by state incentive
funding or RPS driven procurement
1
• Growth is happening in spite of or due to the way utilities value distributed
solar PV resources2
3
13
3 Reasons behind 18 GW of Growth
14. www.gtmresearch.com
NEM and Rate Reform Debates in Context
• In 39 states, utilities and/or legislators have now considered
rate reforms and net energy metering (NEM) revisions that
would roll back the value of solar for residential PV customers
• Yet less than 5% of those proposals have been approved
as originally proposed or approved in some version altogether
• Amidst the wave of NEM and rate design reforms, national
residential solar companies are scaling up into new state
markets that remain economically attractive
• In December 2015, California’s ruling on NEM 2.0 will be the
most critical decision of residential PV’s growth trajectory in
recent history
Number of Residential PV State Markets by Quarterly
Installation Volumes
14
Residential Rate Reform Risk Spurs Geographic Diversification
26
22
12
5
6
9
3 3
4
1
4
10
68
171
473
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q2 2011 Q2 2013 Q2 2015
NationalResidentialPVInstallations
(MWdc)
NumberofStates
Less than 1 MW
1 MW to 5 MW
5 MW to 10 MW
10 MW+
National Residential PV Installations (MWdc)
15. www.gtmresearch.com
Residential PV State Markets by Payback Period: 2015 1H 2015 Residential PV Installations by State
15
But Residential PV Demand Diversification Remains Slow Moving…
12
18
13
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
15+ Years 10-15 Years 7-10 Years Less than 7
Years
AllStatesPlusWashington,DC
50%
9%
6%
6%
5%
76%
24%
California New York
Arizona Massachusetts
New Jersey Top 5 States
16. www.gtmresearch.com
Why is the commercial solar market struggling?
Average Commercial Solar Export Rates in CA:
Default Tariff vs. Option R in SCE and PG&E
16
Rate Design Matters for Commercial Solar Too…
$0.09
$0.14 $0.14
$0.18
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.20
SCE
TOU-GS-3
SCE
Option R
PG&E
A-10
PG&E
A-6
SolarExportRate($/kWh)
SCE's Option R:
50%+ increase in value of
PG&E's A-6:
25%+ increase
in
value of solar
• Medium and large commercial customer economics
remain tough to pencil:
• For these customers, solar is compensated anywhere between
15%-60%+ less than residential and small commercial customers,
due to demand charges that lower the volumetric portions of
customers’ bills, which solar can directly offset
3 reasons to remain optimistic about non-residential PV
• Solar-Friendly Rate Structures to Fuel Mid-Scale C&I:
• Low/zero demand and high energy charges
• Small Commercial PV Economics Already Pencil:
• PACE financing solutions and efforts to streamline risk
review process for non-investment grade customers
• And the third reason lies in the emergence of community
solar…
17. www.gtmresearch.com
• Between 2010 and 1H 2015, steep cost reductions have expanded the
universe of state markets where solar is unchained by state incentive
funding or RPS driven procurement
1
• Growth is happening in spite of or due to the way utilities value distributed
solar PV resources2
• Solar’s total addressable market is expanding through new product offerings
that blur market segment distinctions, but spur blue sky growth strategies
for distributed and centralized PV
3
17
3 Reasons behind 18 GW of Growth
18. www.gtmresearch.com
• Community Solar: Expected to add nearly 400 MW between 2015 and 2016, both
in markets with statewide legislation and pilot utility programs1
• Offsite C&I: The pipeline of offsite centralized PV projects procured by corporate
and government entities currently totals ~1 GW2
• Solar Loans: Emergence of solar loans will fuel a growing share of residential
solar’s growth, as third party leases/PPAs dip from a 72% to 57% market share
between 2014 and 2016
3
18
3 Emerging Segments: ~2 GW Opportunity Through 2016
19. www.gtmresearch.com
Key Considerations in 2017
• 55% national level decline in PV installations between 2016 and
2017
• Which market segment is most sensitive to the stepdown of the
federal ITC?
• Utility PV: With a growing share of utility PV being procured based on
cost competitiveness, rather than RPS driven demand, the market segment
is seeing a majority of 2017 installations packed into 2016
• Which market segment is least sensitive to the stepdown of the
federal ITC?
• Residential PV: More than 50% of average national residential PV
installed costs ($3.50/Wdc) come from soft costs
• What about non-residential PV?
• 40%-50% of average installed costs are comprised of soft costs, offering
ample opportunity to counter the stepdown of the federal ITC
• But continued questions surrounding how to standardize customer
acquisition and lower transactional costs, plus more challenging rate
designs, put the market segment at higher risk of economics recovering
compared to residential PV
Post 2016 U.S. PV Market Outlook
19
2017 Outlook: Distinct Downturns For Each Market Segment
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E 2020E
InstalledCapacity(MWdc)
Residential PV Non-Residential PV Utility PV
20. www.gtmresearch.com
Key Considerations in 2018-2020
• Residential PV: Emerges as leading driver of U.S. solar
market
• Steepest cost reduction opportunities keep residential PV
economics afloat in core state markets
• Incremental geographic diversification spurred by expansion of
solar loan product offerings and tolerable rate reform battles that
hinder but do not erase residential solar’s savings potentials
• Non-Residential PV: Sub 1 MW market takes a greater role
in fueling demand
• By 2020: Sub 1 MW segment will account for 51% of non-
residential solar, as efforts to standardize PPA financing solutions
for smaller, non-investment grade entities come to fruition
• Community Solar: 1.2 GW market size between 2018 and 2020
Post 2016 U.S. PV Market Outlook
20
2018 and Beyond: The Road to Market Recovery
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E 2020E
InstalledCapacity(MWdc)
Residential PV Non-Residential PV Utility PV
21. www.gtmresearch.com
Key Considerations in 2018-2020
Utility PV: How does the market recover?
• By 2019: Utility PV PPA prices are expected to return to late
2015/early 2016 levels
• CCAs, munis, co-ops, and corporates interested in offsite
centralized PV are expected to play a larger role in
procurement, focused on hedging against natural gas price
uncertainty
• When does the Clean Power Plan become a material
driver of procurement?
• Given that utility scale PV projects can only be used to meet near
term compliance obligations, and sluggish timelines for rolling out
state implementation plans, the CPP is expected to fuel deployment
in the post 2020 timeframe
Post 2016 U.S. PV Market Outlook
21
2018 and Beyond: The Road to Market Recovery
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E 2020E
InstalledCapacity(MWdc)
Residential PV Non-Residential PV Utility PV
22. www.gtmresearch.com
• State supported
demand and
incentivized
economics
Pre 2015:
Legacy Market
Dynamics
• Growth unchained
by state incentive
funding and RPS
procurement
2015-2016:
Era of Cost Parity
• Growth reverts to
core states with
the loss of the
federal ITC
2017:
Geographic
Contraction
• Residential PV
displaces utility
scale as anchor
market segment
2018-2020:
U.S. Solar Strikes
Back
22
4 Phases of U.S. Solar: Looking Ahead to 2020
U.S. Solar’s Transition to a Post Subsidy Demand Landscape
18 GW
20 GW
6 GW
27 GW
23. www.gtmresearch.com
Total gigawatts of solar PV expected to come online between 2H 2015 and
2016
18
Share of 16.6 GW utility PV pipeline that has been procured primarily based
on its competitiveness with natural gas
47%
Number of years it will take for solar to return to being a 10 GW+ annual
market after the federal IT drops at the end of 2016
4
Number of days until the federal ITC drops from 30% to 10%
(0% for direct owned residential PV)
471
23
4 Numbers to Remember About Future of U.S. Solar
24. www.gtmresearch.com
Thank You!
Join us:
Nov 2-4: GTM’s 5th Annual U.S. Solar Market Insight conference in San Diego
Dec 8-9: GTM’s Inaugural Energy Storage Summit conference in San Francisco
Jan 27-28: GTM’s Inaugural Solar Summit: Mexico conference in Mexico City
Cory Honeyman
Senior Analyst, Solar Markets
Greentech Media
Questions? Visit www.gtmresearch.com
Or contact honeyman@gtmresearch.com