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THE FUTURE OF
RETAI L :
A VIEW OF 2030
CBRE RESEARCH
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
03 Introduction
04 The Future of Demand
08 The Future of Technology
13 The Future Consumers
17 The Future of the Retail Store
22 The Future for Landlords
26 Conclusion
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
INTRODUCTION
Discussion around the transformation of the retail sector has intensified in
recent years as the industry adopts new technologies and approaches to
connecting with consumers.
As consumer profiles, preferences and practices continue to rapidly evolve, it
is paramount that retail occupiers and landlords futureproof their real estate
portfolios and practices to ensure success.
Retail technology, the next generation of consumers and store/asset
configuration are just a few of the many areas that the industry must address.
This Special Report – the first in a series looking exploring the future of retail –
analyses the findings of a mid-2019 CBRE survey of retail occupiers,
developers and investors to deliver a vision of the retail landscape in 2030.
Survey Period: July – September 2019.
Source: CBRE Research, September 2020.
Figure 1: Respondent Profile
Nonetheless, many of these changes has been accelerated or amplified by
the COVID-19 pandemic, with online shopping quickly progressing from a
regular habit for a minority of consumers to an essential component of
recreational infrastructure within the space of a few months. With the future
of retail set to arrive sooner than expected, it is imperative that the retail
industry starts preparing now.
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
THE FUTURE
OF DEMAND
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
Country US$
1. China
2. USA
3. United Kingdom
4. Japan
672-billion
340-billion
99-billion
79-billion
73-billion
THE PANDEMIC IS ACCELERATING E-COMMERCE GROWTH
E-commerce sales growth has surged this year as the pandemic compels more
shoppers to purchase goods online. Most global markets all saw the e-commerce
penetration rate at least double from the same period of 2019. As an example,
Euromonitor International projects that e-commerce will account for 28% of
total Asia Pacific retail sales by 2024, compared to a forecast 23% made before
the pandemic.
The pandemic has negatively impacted many trades operating brick-and-
mortar stores, with tens of thousands of retailers forced to temporarily close,
and others forced out of business permanently. A recent UBS study predicted
that 100,000 retail stores in the U.S. could close by 2025, a figure 25%
higher than its 2019 forecast1.
Noteworthy closures in this year include Esprit and Follie Follie, which
withdrew from all markets in Asia; NYX, which has closed all its stores in
Malaysia and Hong Kong SAR; Topshop, which exited Singapore and Hong
Kong SAR; and Superdry, which pulled out from Mainland China.
As retailers review their real estate requirements amid the economic turmoil
and accelerating shift online, some consolidation of brick-and-mortar sales
networks is inevitable in the short term. However, a majority of respondents to
CBRE’s survey retain a positive view towards the long-term future of retail
space demand across the globe.
Source: Business.com, 2020
Top 5 Markets by Volume of Sales
1 USA Today (Link), Forbes (Link)
Figure 2: Major Global Markets
Germany
No.
5.
E-commerce as % of
Total Retail Sales
15.9%
7.5%
14.5%
5.4%
8.4%
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
Figure 3: What is your view on future retail space demand?
To what extent will it increase/ decrease in 2030?
BRICK-AND-MORTAR RETAIL IS HERE TO STAY
While occupier respondents are generally more optimistic than landlords and
investors, some participants believe that there is insufficient high quality retail
space – particularly that suited for experience-oriented stores – to meet
demand. Many occupier respondents are seeking more advanced and high-
tech space but believe the product landlords are offering is unsuitable.
Occupier respondents in some Asian markets are particularly optimistic about
the future of brick-and-mortar demand, with 70% expecting an increase in
requirements over the next decade. Consumption has been resilient since the
pandemic was contained in this market, with retail sales rebounding strongly in
recent months. Growing demand for homegrown brands among younger
shoppers is set to generate more business opportunities for regional and local
retailers.
The survey detected some caution among landlord respondents, with only 38%
of participants expecting an increase in demand, compared to 48%
of occupier respondents (Figure 3). As the impact of rapid e-commerce growth
on landlords has varied across different asset types, landlords of community
retail properties hold a more upbeat outlook due to resilient non-discretionary
consumption.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1=Decrease a
lot
2 3=About the
same
4 5=Increase a
lot
%
of
Respondents
RETAILERS
LANDLORDS
Survey Period: July – September 2019.
Source: CBRE Research, September 2020.
Impact of COVID-19: Retailers rethink sales networks
45%
of retailers plan to open new stores in the coming
12 months following some closures earlier this
year. Retailers are resetting their store networks and
looking to capitalise on the weak leasing market.
Source: CBRE Retail Flash Survey September 2020.
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
THE NEXT BIG SHIFT
While CBRE is adamant that brick-and-mortar stores will remain at the
forefront of many retailers’ operations and strategy in 2030, they are likely to
play a lesser role in terms of being a point of sale. Instead, retail stores will
serve as platforms for retailers to attract and engage consumers and to
amplify their brand.
This will require a thorough revaluation of the location, design and operation
of retail properties. The valuation and pricing of brick-and-mortar retail assets
will also need to be reconsidered to reflect their evolving role. By 2030,
occupiers and landlords may place a stronger emphasis upon a property’s
marketing value and social media reach than sales turnover when it comes to
setting rents.
Impact of COVID-19: New retail trades emerge
Upmarket and niche grocery stores are expanding
as people dine at home more frequently and
display stronger demand for quality ingredients.
Specialty retailers for outdoor activities and sporting
goods continue to open new stores as more people
spend their leisure time outside.
More take-away outlets and casual dining
restaurants are opening as most markets continue to
maintain limits on dine-in capacity.
Consumers are displaying a stronger preference for
eating in outdoor areas where they believe there is a
lower risk of virus transmission.
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
THE FUTURE OF
TECHNOLOGY
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
TECHNOLOGY SHIFTS FROM RETAIL DISRUPTOR TO ENABLER
As retailers embrace technology, they are becoming more cognisant of the
benefits of doing so and no longer view it as a disruptor. 75% of survey
respondents believe digital and technological innovation is an enabler for the
retail sector.
Most landlord respondents stated that they are well prepared for further
technological advancement, with many groups regarding it as a strategic
imperative. Some landlords have assembled their own innovation teams or are
collaborating with tech start-ups to develop new retail technologies. Property
investors tend to hold more conservative views towards retail technology due
to their relatively smaller portfolios and shorter holding period.
As the retail industry evolves over the next decade, much of the change and
transformation will be facilitated by technology. When asked to name the
technologies they expect to have the biggest impact on the retail sector in
2030, respondents identified consumer analytics, in-store automation and
mobile payment.
Figure 4: What are the top five technologies you expect to have the biggest impact
on the retail industry in 2030 and why?
Survey Period: July – September 2019.
Source: CBRE Research, September 2020.
12%
16%
25%
31%
32%
37%
41%
43%
47%
53%
84%
Smart Dressing Rooms
Smart shelves/ Shelf Monitoring
Indoor Navigation/ Wayfinding
Supply Chain digitalisation
Facial Recognition
Interactive Displays
Store Management/ Point of Sales System (POS)
Augmented/ Virtual Reality Tools
Mobile payment
In-store automation, e.g. checkout
Consumer analytics/ CRM
Impact of COVID-19: Digital sales are becoming more prominent
78% of retailers plan to increase their investment in
online retailing / delivery apps.
Source: CBRE Retail Flash Survey April/May 2020.
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
3.1 CONSUMER ANALYTICS
One of the greatest advantages e-commerce platforms enjoy over brick-and-
mortar retailers is their ability to utilise technology to collect and use
information about different aspects of consumer behaviour.
This proficiency has enabled online retailers to assemble an enormous bank of
actionable information related to merchandising, advertising and marketing,
which can then be leveraged to inform business strategy and optimise sales
operations2. Consumer analytics also offer insight into inventory management,
warehouse network planning and locational strategy.
Brick-and-mortar retailers have already begun to harness technology to obtain
data-driven insights. These include Starbucks, which is using mapping and
business intelligence tool Atlas to identify new store locations. Atlas considers a
multitude of factors including traffic patterns, population density, demographics
and proximity to other Starbucks stores to evaluate candidate locations for new
outlets3.
On the landlord front, shopping mall owners and operators are using Wi-Fi
systems, iBeacons, facial recognition cameras and mobile apps to collect data
on consumer profiles and behaviours. However, many are still finding it
challenging to integrate data collected from the various systems tracking each
stage of a shopper’s journey into a centralised data analytics platform.
Over the next coming decade, CBRE expects to see much closer collaboration
between retail occupiers and landlords in the field of data analytics. By
capturing and analysing shoppers’ interactions with products, brands, and
locations, the retail industry will better understand the needs of the consumer
and be able to customise their shopping experience accordingly.
2 Consumer Analytics: Powering Retail Strategy, CBRE Research, October 2018. (Link)
3 Harvard Business School, Starbucks Grinding Data, 2017. (Link)
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
3.2 IN-STORE AUTOMATION
Around 71% of occupier respondents ranked in-store automation among the
technologies they expect to have the biggest impact on the retail sector in 2030
– reflecting growing concern about rising labour costs and a shortage of
experienced staff. While this situation is expected to worsen as the population
ages, the pandemic has prompted many retailers to explore ways of minimising
human-to-human contact.
Most of the available solutions are customer-oriented such as self-ordering and
check-out and are only feasible in restaurants and supermarkets. While
unmanned stores have yet to prove viable, CBRE expects to see more robots
and cobots in stores by 2030. These would be capable of performing basic
tasks such as serving food and drink in restaurants, thereby freeing up
frontline staff for more complex requests. An example is the Chinese hotpot chain
Haidilao who already operate almost 1,000 robot waiters globally4.
In an age where most people do not leave home without their phone,
smartphones have become a crucial consumer touchpoint. Mobile payments
are increasingly popular in Asia Pacific, which is home to eight of the ten
countries with the world’s highest mobile payment rates5. With the pandemic
prompting many consumers to adopt contactless payment systems, CBRE
expects to see a sharp uptick in the adoption of mobile payment solutions
within a very short timeframe.
Data created by mobile payment solutions can also prove invaluable to retail
occupiers and landlords seeking to learn more about their customers. By
identifying and tracking individual device IDs from point-of-sale systems and
payment details, retailers and landlords can build comprehensive and unified
customer profiles with information such as browsing history, purchase records,
demographics, location and spending – all of which can be used to perform
hyper-personalised marketing and advertising.
3.3 MOBILE PAYMENT SOLUTIONS
4 Haidilao’s Annual Report 2019. (Link) 5 PwC, Global Consumer Insights Survey 2019. (Link)
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
BARRIERS TO TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
Despite widespread industry acceptance of the importance of technological
innovation, many occupiers and landlords retail industry are failing to invest
sufficiently in new technology6. Financial concerns like budgeting and return on
investment are the biggest hurdles, especially for those players with relatively
small portfolios. Some respondents to the survey stated that as retail has
traditionally not been a tech-driven industry, they are content to be followers of
technological innovation rather than forerunners.
Talent availability and readiness to adopt technology are also key to
overcoming barriers to technological innovation. Some occupier respondents
highlighted the fact that their frontline staff sometimes lack digital literacy while
upper management are often reluctant to approve investment in technology
without extensive evidence of its expected impact and value.
Figure 5: What are the major obstacles to implementing digital and technological
innovation in your stores/shopping centres?
Survey Period: July – September 2019.
Source: CBRE Research, September 2020.
41% Securing enough budget/ Digital transformation is viewed
as a cost centre
40% Lack of data or ROI to justify the value of technology
29% Low digital literacy or lack of experience
25% Lack of staff resources
18% Difficult to prioritise which technology to invest
13% Resistance to change within the company
12% Lack of clear vision among the board/ no leadership in this area
6 Deloitte Global CIO Survey, 2018. (Link)
Impact of COVID-19: More online investment despite stringent CapEx
Many retailers and landlords suffered an abrupt decline in cash inflows
during the pandemic, meaning that capital expenditure has been reduced or
is now under more stringent review. Nonetheless, many retailers are investing
in expanding their online sales channels, with 31% saying that the pandemic
led to digital sales becoming their core business.
Source: CBRE Retail Flash Survey April/May 2020.
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
THE FUTURE
CONSUMERS
THERE WILL BE A FIFTH GENERATION OF CONSUMERS BY 2030
Many of the retail trends witnessed in recent years have been shaped by
millennials’ purchasing habits. While the spending power of this demographic
cohort will soon be greater than that of any other generation7, the next decade
will see Generation Z (those born after 1997) ascend to adulthood and emerge
as a powerful new source of retail spending. By 2030, there will be five
generations of consumers in the marketplace.
Research indicates that Generation Z place greater importance upon brand
values, personalisation and sustainability than other age groups. Occupiers and
landlords should therefore seek to engage these consumers by providing goods
and services catering to the lifestyle and values they exemplify. Psychographic
consumer marketing – involving a thorough analysis of consumers’ personalities,
values and beliefs – will be adopted widely by 2030.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
%
of
Respondents
Born 1985-1997
Millennials
Born 1965-1984
Gen X
Born 1946-1964
Baby Boomers
Born 1998-2014
Gen Z
Born after 2014
Post Gen Z
Figure 6: Major Consumers: Now and in the Future
Survey Period: July – September 2019.
Source: CBRE Research, September 2020.
MAJOR CONSUMERS IN 2030
MAJOR CONSUMERS NOW
7 Brookings Institution, 2018. (Link)
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
4.1 VALUE SHOPPING
Value shopping - which involves consumers spending on products, services and
brands that align with their own values and purposes – will become
increasingly prominent over the next decade. Brands are already attempting to
differentiate themselves and win business from younger consumers by
displaying progressive and inclusive values. Examples include cosmetics
manufacturers providing products for a wider range of skin tones, clothing
brands using plus size models to advocate body positivity and other retailers
adopting buy-one-give-one charitable models.
Advances in consumer analytics and the harnessing of big data to create a
comprehensive consumer portrait will enable retail occupiers to shift away from
one size fits all solutions and towards personalising their offering to shoppers.
This will also enable the emergence of niche and independent retailers targeting
relatively small consumer groups.
CBRE expects this trend to infiltrate the entire shopping journey from marketing
messages to dynamic website content and pricing. Retailers will be able to
personalise all these aspects based on consumers’ purchase records, browsing
history and geolocation information.
Selected retailers may even harness their understanding of their consumers to
engage in pre-emptive distribution whereby products will be sent out to customers
even before they have made a purchase.
Product personalisation will also evolve beyond monogramming handbags and
making bespoke perfumes. For example, consumers in 2030 may be able to tailor
their shoes according to their stride pattern with the help of 3D printing.
4.2 PERSONALISATION
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
4.3 SUSTAINABILITY
The advent of lab-grown and plant-based meat suggests more consumers are
taking environmental factors into consideration when making purchasing
decisions. Consumer demand for products that are natural, organic and ethical
will continue to increase over the next decade. Innovations in the fashion industry
include jewellery manufactured from recycled silver and nylon made from plastic
waste. Several luxury brands have discontinued their use of animal products such
as crocodile skins and are investing in the development of green materials.
Consumers are demanding retailers provide information about their production
processes and environmental footprint. Supply chain transparency and traceability
– in which blockchain may play a prominent role - will become an essential tool
for retailers to engage with consumers.
Impact of COVID-19: Infusing Health & Wellness into Retail
The pandemic is likely to lead to a permanent shift in attitudes towards
health and wellness in the physical retail environment. Key elements may
include the following:
SAFETY
PROTECTION
CLEANLINESS
Provide a safe shopping environment by
ensuring social distancing, temperature
controls and established protocols to
handle infected cases.
Enhance cleaning and sanitisation of
physical space and air conditioning
systems. More cleaning robots and
touchless technology will be used.
Ensure the sufficient supply of personal
protective equipment and establish
policies on wearing masks in stores.
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
THE FUTURE
OF THE
RETAIL STORE
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
5.1 DESIGN AND CONFIGURATION
While brick-and-mortar retail will undoubtedly remain key in 2030, store design
and location strategy must evolve in response to consumers’ changing
expectations. CBRE foresees the redistribution of space between the various
areas of retail stores such as fitting rooms, product testing zones, pick-up
counters and stockrooms. This will see less space allocated to areas that have a
minimal positive impact on consumer satisfaction.
Most survey respondents anticipate lower space requirements for in-store
inventory storage and check-out counters. With inventory management already
being optimised with the aid of predictive demand analytics, brick-and-mortar
stores may eventually become inventory-free as purchases are dispatched from
warehouses to consumers’ homes upon payment.
Check-out counters are also being reduced in size or replaced entirely by mobile
Point of Sale (POS) systems. Existing self-checkout services are likely to be
enhanced by mobile wallets and facial recognition. However, luxury groups expect
to continue to be able to provide full-service checkout and gift-wrapping services,
ideally in a lounge-type environment, as part of their focus on providing an
upscale experience to their customers.
Product display areas will expand as visual merchandising takes on a more
important role in generating traction with consumers. Many retailers are investing
in leading edge designs for their flagship stores to highlight specific product
features rather than engaging in the type of standard merchandising found in
their other stores. This trend is expected to gradually spread to other store formats
as e-commerce grabs a larger share of merchandising and inventory.
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
%
of
Respondents
Increase significantly
THE STORE OF THE FUTURE
Shelf Space/
Product Display Area
Become obsolete
Fitting Room or
Product Trial Zone
Pick Up / Return Point for
Online Orders
Storage/ Backroom
Space
Check-out/ Cashier
Survey Period: July – September 2019.
Source: CBRE Research, September 2020.
Figure 7: Within retail stores, what kind of space would you expect to increase significantly/become obsolete by 2030?
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
RETAIL STORES WILL PROVIDE EXPERIENCE AND CONVENIENCE
More space for product trials and experiences will be needed to enable
consumers to touch, try and test goods and services. These zones will be
designed to provide consumers with extensive illustrations of product
functionality. For examples, shoppers will be able to test out new shoes on in-
store synthetic and concrete pavements before committing to a purchase.
With studies showing that consumers tend to make additional spending in-
store when picking up online purchases, some retailers have already installed
click-and-collect areas. Most occupier respondents to the survey expect to have
dedicated zones to accommodate online orders and returns. With the
pandemic boosting online sales, CBRE expects the introduction of such areas
to accelerate in the near future. This will have a long-lasting impact on store
layout, shop sizes and locational strategy.
Respondents from the F&B sector shared a similar view, with many groups
expressing an interest in setting up smaller sized stores providing takeaway
services to customers seeking convenience. Surging demand for food delivery
services witnessed since the pandemic may endure, leading to increased
requirements for cloud kitchens.
CBRE expects the brick-and-mortar stores of 2030 to play a role as lifestyle hubs
proving settings for product experimentation, interaction with salespeople and
socialising. Many retailers have already opened in-store cafés and bars and the
coming decade is likely to see the introduction of more social elements into
flagship or large-scale stores, such as by hosting workshops and events. There will
also be more frequent collaboration between different retailers and industries – a
trend that may generate stronger demand for multi-purpose and flexible retail
space.
Impact of COVID-19: Brick-and-mortar stores adapt to omnichannel
retailing
Despite the surge in online retailing since the onset of the pandemic,
many retailers have experienced disruption to their delivery services.
Enhancing last mile fulfillment capacity via brick-and-mortar stores
networks will be essential in the coming years.
68% of respondents to CBRE’s latest Asia Pacific Retail Flash Survey
intent to launch or expand click and collect services. At the same
time, more than half of retailers say they will designate more space
in stores to handling online orders.
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
5.2 STORE PORTFOLIO MIX
The changing role of brick-and-mortar stores will spur retailers to diversify their
store formats and functions. CBRE expects to see fewer standard stores and more
stores with unique features and product mix – all of which will continue to
operate under a cohesive brand culture.
Pop up-stores and other on-demand retail and event space will attract stronger
demand in the years to 2030. As retailers seek more flexible and responsive
sales networks to cater to rapidly changing consumer preferences, this will lead
to a preference for shorter leases. Plug-and-play retail units and online
marketplaces advertising short term leases for retail space are already facilitating
the growth of small and independent brands.
The survey also noted some demand for unconventional formats such as
shipping containers in retail parks along with some interest in crossover and
collaboration with other retail brands. Showrooms that come with customised
design and décor will also be increasingly utilised as retailers look to build a
deeper connection with consumers by creating “stories” or a “journey” inside
their stores.
Source: CBRE Research, September 2020.
Figure 8: The Future Retail Store Network
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
THE FUTURE FOR
LANDLORDS
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
RETHINKING STRATEGIES AND REDEFINING PERFORMANCE
Property owners anticipate a challenging environment over the next decade,
with 74% of landlord respondents stating that they expect leasing markets to
favour tenants.
In addition to rapid e-commerce growth and changing consumer preferences,
landlords’ concerns include the potential disappearance of existing retail trades
and formats along with changes to how properties are valued. This will require
retail landlords to rethink their business strategies and redefine performance
metrics.
6.1 VISUAL STIMULI
Consumers’ visits to shopping centres are already becoming more purpose-
driven, with many shoppers conducting research and online purchases well in
advance. Landlords will therefore have to provide more features to attract and
impress the public. This can be achieved by creating a compelling visual
experience through building architecture, art installations and other décor.
Shopping centre design and layout should also seek to generate and guide
pedestrian circulation around these features.
6.2 THEMATIC DESIGN
The shopping centres and retail stores of the future will evolve from the
standard enclosed big box layouts of today. Artistic and cultural elements will
be increasingly incorporated into properties and will eventually operate as both
amenities and components of the tenant mix. Hong Kong SAR’s K11 Musea –
one of a series of museum-retail shopping malls operated by New World
Development- features extensive art, design and architectural features along
with a host of cultural activities and workshops as part of its shopper loyalty
programme.
Impact of COVID-19: Introduction of more specific Force Majeure
clauses
Most tenants have found that Force Majeure terms and conditions in
their leases failed to address the lockdowns or mandatory business
closures they experienced.
While 72% of retailers want to insert and expand Force Majeure
clauses in future leases, CBRE expects greater attention to be paid to
specific wordings and terminology in future lease negotiations and the
detailing of conditions that would invalidate lease obligations.
Source: Retail Flash Survey, September/October 2020, CBRE Research
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
RETHINKING STRATEGIES AND REDEFINING PERFORMANCE
New shopping malls will also incorporate more natural elements
such as vertical greening and water features. The trend towards including green
features as well as more space dedicated to outdoor areas is expected to be
accelerated by the pandemic.
By 2030, shopping mall tenants are likely to be organised by lifestyle and
image rather than type of trade. In the future of retail, shopping centre
landlords will play a key role in facilitating collaboration between tenants while
introducing external parties for potential cooperation and partnership.
6.3 PERFORMANCE METRICS
The coming decade will see the advent of a new approach to quantifying store
productivity, with performance measurement expanding beyond in-store sales
activity to include omni-channel sales. New metrics are likely to include foot
traffic generation, in-mall engagement and social media performance.
6.4 NEW SOURCES OF INCOME
While rental income will continue to be landlords’ major income stream,
property owners will increasingly explore other sources of revenue generation
such as on-demand facilities, in-mall advertising and sponsorship. Recent
examples of this trend in Asia include Singapore’s Jewel Changi Airport, which
secured HSBC, Shiseido and Manulife as naming rights partners for some of its
major attractions.
Live streaming has emerged as a popular consumer engagement and sales
channel since the pandemic – a trend that is expected to gain further
momentum over the next decade. Many retail brands are already collaborating
with Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs), while shopping centre operators such as
Intime are deploying salespersons as livestream hosts.
PERFORMANCE METRICS
On-demand space
Impression-
based
turnover rent
NEW SOURCES OF INCOME
In-mall advertising
Sponsorship
VISUAL STIMULI
Browse online
Circulation by eye
THEMATIC DESIGN
Mix with amenities
Theme mix
RETHINKING
STRATEGIES AND
REDEFINING
PERFORMANCE
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
Impact of COVID-19: The future of retail leases
CBRE’s Retail Flash Survey conducted in September 2020 asked retailers to identify
the most important clauses they would like to include in future leases. Popular
responses included the following:
25%
44%
49%
49%
72%
Shorter lease terms
Turnover rent clauses
Regular rental reviews
during lease terms
Early break clauses
Insert and expand Force
Majeure clauses
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC.
CONCLUSION
The next decade will bring significant change for the retail industry as leasing
demand evolves; new technologies are adopted; the next generation of
consumers enters the marketplace; store design and configuration are
overhauled; and landlords adopt new operating strategies and performance
metrics.
CBRE expects retail operations to converge into a single model known as Phygital
— physical and digital — involving the unification of e-commerce and brick-and-
mortar stores to cater to consumer demand for convenience, speed and cost8.
Retail occupiers, landlords and investors are advised to develop closer
relationships and shift away from being purely transactional and towards
becoming true partners. Collaboration, innovation and differentiation will be the
keys to success in the future of retail.
8 Global Outlook 2030: The Age of Responsive Real Estate, CBRE Research, 2020. (Link)
Research Report Authors
Henry Chin, Ph.D.
Head of Global Investor Thought
Leadership Head of Research, APAC
henry.chin@cbre.com.hk
Ada Choi, CFA
Head of Occupier Research, APAC
ada.choi@cbre.com.hk
Liz Hung
Associate Director, APAC
liz.hung@cbre.com.hk
George Wang
Senior Analyst, APAC
george.wang@cbre.com
Sabrina Lam
Analyst, APAC
sabrina.lam@cbre.com
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REGIONAL REPORT, PLEASE CONTACT
CBRE RESEARCH
This report was prepared by the CBRE Asia Pacific Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research—a network of preeminent researchers who collaborate to provide real estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate.
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at
the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and
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Retail Advisory Services | Middle East
Heather Longden
Director
Advisory & Transactions
heather.longden@cbre.com
James Lynn
Director
Strategic Advisory
james.lynn@cbre.com

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The Future of Retail 2030

  • 1. THE FUTURE OF RETAI L : A VIEW OF 2030 CBRE RESEARCH
  • 2. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. TABLE OF CONTENTS 03 Introduction 04 The Future of Demand 08 The Future of Technology 13 The Future Consumers 17 The Future of the Retail Store 22 The Future for Landlords 26 Conclusion
  • 3. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. INTRODUCTION Discussion around the transformation of the retail sector has intensified in recent years as the industry adopts new technologies and approaches to connecting with consumers. As consumer profiles, preferences and practices continue to rapidly evolve, it is paramount that retail occupiers and landlords futureproof their real estate portfolios and practices to ensure success. Retail technology, the next generation of consumers and store/asset configuration are just a few of the many areas that the industry must address. This Special Report – the first in a series looking exploring the future of retail – analyses the findings of a mid-2019 CBRE survey of retail occupiers, developers and investors to deliver a vision of the retail landscape in 2030. Survey Period: July – September 2019. Source: CBRE Research, September 2020. Figure 1: Respondent Profile Nonetheless, many of these changes has been accelerated or amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic, with online shopping quickly progressing from a regular habit for a minority of consumers to an essential component of recreational infrastructure within the space of a few months. With the future of retail set to arrive sooner than expected, it is imperative that the retail industry starts preparing now.
  • 4. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. THE FUTURE OF DEMAND
  • 5. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. Country US$ 1. China 2. USA 3. United Kingdom 4. Japan 672-billion 340-billion 99-billion 79-billion 73-billion THE PANDEMIC IS ACCELERATING E-COMMERCE GROWTH E-commerce sales growth has surged this year as the pandemic compels more shoppers to purchase goods online. Most global markets all saw the e-commerce penetration rate at least double from the same period of 2019. As an example, Euromonitor International projects that e-commerce will account for 28% of total Asia Pacific retail sales by 2024, compared to a forecast 23% made before the pandemic. The pandemic has negatively impacted many trades operating brick-and- mortar stores, with tens of thousands of retailers forced to temporarily close, and others forced out of business permanently. A recent UBS study predicted that 100,000 retail stores in the U.S. could close by 2025, a figure 25% higher than its 2019 forecast1. Noteworthy closures in this year include Esprit and Follie Follie, which withdrew from all markets in Asia; NYX, which has closed all its stores in Malaysia and Hong Kong SAR; Topshop, which exited Singapore and Hong Kong SAR; and Superdry, which pulled out from Mainland China. As retailers review their real estate requirements amid the economic turmoil and accelerating shift online, some consolidation of brick-and-mortar sales networks is inevitable in the short term. However, a majority of respondents to CBRE’s survey retain a positive view towards the long-term future of retail space demand across the globe. Source: Business.com, 2020 Top 5 Markets by Volume of Sales 1 USA Today (Link), Forbes (Link) Figure 2: Major Global Markets Germany No. 5. E-commerce as % of Total Retail Sales 15.9% 7.5% 14.5% 5.4% 8.4%
  • 6. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. Figure 3: What is your view on future retail space demand? To what extent will it increase/ decrease in 2030? BRICK-AND-MORTAR RETAIL IS HERE TO STAY While occupier respondents are generally more optimistic than landlords and investors, some participants believe that there is insufficient high quality retail space – particularly that suited for experience-oriented stores – to meet demand. Many occupier respondents are seeking more advanced and high- tech space but believe the product landlords are offering is unsuitable. Occupier respondents in some Asian markets are particularly optimistic about the future of brick-and-mortar demand, with 70% expecting an increase in requirements over the next decade. Consumption has been resilient since the pandemic was contained in this market, with retail sales rebounding strongly in recent months. Growing demand for homegrown brands among younger shoppers is set to generate more business opportunities for regional and local retailers. The survey detected some caution among landlord respondents, with only 38% of participants expecting an increase in demand, compared to 48% of occupier respondents (Figure 3). As the impact of rapid e-commerce growth on landlords has varied across different asset types, landlords of community retail properties hold a more upbeat outlook due to resilient non-discretionary consumption. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1=Decrease a lot 2 3=About the same 4 5=Increase a lot % of Respondents RETAILERS LANDLORDS Survey Period: July – September 2019. Source: CBRE Research, September 2020. Impact of COVID-19: Retailers rethink sales networks 45% of retailers plan to open new stores in the coming 12 months following some closures earlier this year. Retailers are resetting their store networks and looking to capitalise on the weak leasing market. Source: CBRE Retail Flash Survey September 2020.
  • 7. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. THE NEXT BIG SHIFT While CBRE is adamant that brick-and-mortar stores will remain at the forefront of many retailers’ operations and strategy in 2030, they are likely to play a lesser role in terms of being a point of sale. Instead, retail stores will serve as platforms for retailers to attract and engage consumers and to amplify their brand. This will require a thorough revaluation of the location, design and operation of retail properties. The valuation and pricing of brick-and-mortar retail assets will also need to be reconsidered to reflect their evolving role. By 2030, occupiers and landlords may place a stronger emphasis upon a property’s marketing value and social media reach than sales turnover when it comes to setting rents. Impact of COVID-19: New retail trades emerge Upmarket and niche grocery stores are expanding as people dine at home more frequently and display stronger demand for quality ingredients. Specialty retailers for outdoor activities and sporting goods continue to open new stores as more people spend their leisure time outside. More take-away outlets and casual dining restaurants are opening as most markets continue to maintain limits on dine-in capacity. Consumers are displaying a stronger preference for eating in outdoor areas where they believe there is a lower risk of virus transmission.
  • 8. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY
  • 9. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. TECHNOLOGY SHIFTS FROM RETAIL DISRUPTOR TO ENABLER As retailers embrace technology, they are becoming more cognisant of the benefits of doing so and no longer view it as a disruptor. 75% of survey respondents believe digital and technological innovation is an enabler for the retail sector. Most landlord respondents stated that they are well prepared for further technological advancement, with many groups regarding it as a strategic imperative. Some landlords have assembled their own innovation teams or are collaborating with tech start-ups to develop new retail technologies. Property investors tend to hold more conservative views towards retail technology due to their relatively smaller portfolios and shorter holding period. As the retail industry evolves over the next decade, much of the change and transformation will be facilitated by technology. When asked to name the technologies they expect to have the biggest impact on the retail sector in 2030, respondents identified consumer analytics, in-store automation and mobile payment. Figure 4: What are the top five technologies you expect to have the biggest impact on the retail industry in 2030 and why? Survey Period: July – September 2019. Source: CBRE Research, September 2020. 12% 16% 25% 31% 32% 37% 41% 43% 47% 53% 84% Smart Dressing Rooms Smart shelves/ Shelf Monitoring Indoor Navigation/ Wayfinding Supply Chain digitalisation Facial Recognition Interactive Displays Store Management/ Point of Sales System (POS) Augmented/ Virtual Reality Tools Mobile payment In-store automation, e.g. checkout Consumer analytics/ CRM Impact of COVID-19: Digital sales are becoming more prominent 78% of retailers plan to increase their investment in online retailing / delivery apps. Source: CBRE Retail Flash Survey April/May 2020.
  • 10. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. 3.1 CONSUMER ANALYTICS One of the greatest advantages e-commerce platforms enjoy over brick-and- mortar retailers is their ability to utilise technology to collect and use information about different aspects of consumer behaviour. This proficiency has enabled online retailers to assemble an enormous bank of actionable information related to merchandising, advertising and marketing, which can then be leveraged to inform business strategy and optimise sales operations2. Consumer analytics also offer insight into inventory management, warehouse network planning and locational strategy. Brick-and-mortar retailers have already begun to harness technology to obtain data-driven insights. These include Starbucks, which is using mapping and business intelligence tool Atlas to identify new store locations. Atlas considers a multitude of factors including traffic patterns, population density, demographics and proximity to other Starbucks stores to evaluate candidate locations for new outlets3. On the landlord front, shopping mall owners and operators are using Wi-Fi systems, iBeacons, facial recognition cameras and mobile apps to collect data on consumer profiles and behaviours. However, many are still finding it challenging to integrate data collected from the various systems tracking each stage of a shopper’s journey into a centralised data analytics platform. Over the next coming decade, CBRE expects to see much closer collaboration between retail occupiers and landlords in the field of data analytics. By capturing and analysing shoppers’ interactions with products, brands, and locations, the retail industry will better understand the needs of the consumer and be able to customise their shopping experience accordingly. 2 Consumer Analytics: Powering Retail Strategy, CBRE Research, October 2018. (Link) 3 Harvard Business School, Starbucks Grinding Data, 2017. (Link)
  • 11. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. 3.2 IN-STORE AUTOMATION Around 71% of occupier respondents ranked in-store automation among the technologies they expect to have the biggest impact on the retail sector in 2030 – reflecting growing concern about rising labour costs and a shortage of experienced staff. While this situation is expected to worsen as the population ages, the pandemic has prompted many retailers to explore ways of minimising human-to-human contact. Most of the available solutions are customer-oriented such as self-ordering and check-out and are only feasible in restaurants and supermarkets. While unmanned stores have yet to prove viable, CBRE expects to see more robots and cobots in stores by 2030. These would be capable of performing basic tasks such as serving food and drink in restaurants, thereby freeing up frontline staff for more complex requests. An example is the Chinese hotpot chain Haidilao who already operate almost 1,000 robot waiters globally4. In an age where most people do not leave home without their phone, smartphones have become a crucial consumer touchpoint. Mobile payments are increasingly popular in Asia Pacific, which is home to eight of the ten countries with the world’s highest mobile payment rates5. With the pandemic prompting many consumers to adopt contactless payment systems, CBRE expects to see a sharp uptick in the adoption of mobile payment solutions within a very short timeframe. Data created by mobile payment solutions can also prove invaluable to retail occupiers and landlords seeking to learn more about their customers. By identifying and tracking individual device IDs from point-of-sale systems and payment details, retailers and landlords can build comprehensive and unified customer profiles with information such as browsing history, purchase records, demographics, location and spending – all of which can be used to perform hyper-personalised marketing and advertising. 3.3 MOBILE PAYMENT SOLUTIONS 4 Haidilao’s Annual Report 2019. (Link) 5 PwC, Global Consumer Insights Survey 2019. (Link)
  • 12. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. BARRIERS TO TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION Despite widespread industry acceptance of the importance of technological innovation, many occupiers and landlords retail industry are failing to invest sufficiently in new technology6. Financial concerns like budgeting and return on investment are the biggest hurdles, especially for those players with relatively small portfolios. Some respondents to the survey stated that as retail has traditionally not been a tech-driven industry, they are content to be followers of technological innovation rather than forerunners. Talent availability and readiness to adopt technology are also key to overcoming barriers to technological innovation. Some occupier respondents highlighted the fact that their frontline staff sometimes lack digital literacy while upper management are often reluctant to approve investment in technology without extensive evidence of its expected impact and value. Figure 5: What are the major obstacles to implementing digital and technological innovation in your stores/shopping centres? Survey Period: July – September 2019. Source: CBRE Research, September 2020. 41% Securing enough budget/ Digital transformation is viewed as a cost centre 40% Lack of data or ROI to justify the value of technology 29% Low digital literacy or lack of experience 25% Lack of staff resources 18% Difficult to prioritise which technology to invest 13% Resistance to change within the company 12% Lack of clear vision among the board/ no leadership in this area 6 Deloitte Global CIO Survey, 2018. (Link) Impact of COVID-19: More online investment despite stringent CapEx Many retailers and landlords suffered an abrupt decline in cash inflows during the pandemic, meaning that capital expenditure has been reduced or is now under more stringent review. Nonetheless, many retailers are investing in expanding their online sales channels, with 31% saying that the pandemic led to digital sales becoming their core business. Source: CBRE Retail Flash Survey April/May 2020.
  • 13. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. THE FUTURE CONSUMERS
  • 14. THERE WILL BE A FIFTH GENERATION OF CONSUMERS BY 2030 Many of the retail trends witnessed in recent years have been shaped by millennials’ purchasing habits. While the spending power of this demographic cohort will soon be greater than that of any other generation7, the next decade will see Generation Z (those born after 1997) ascend to adulthood and emerge as a powerful new source of retail spending. By 2030, there will be five generations of consumers in the marketplace. Research indicates that Generation Z place greater importance upon brand values, personalisation and sustainability than other age groups. Occupiers and landlords should therefore seek to engage these consumers by providing goods and services catering to the lifestyle and values they exemplify. Psychographic consumer marketing – involving a thorough analysis of consumers’ personalities, values and beliefs – will be adopted widely by 2030. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% % of Respondents Born 1985-1997 Millennials Born 1965-1984 Gen X Born 1946-1964 Baby Boomers Born 1998-2014 Gen Z Born after 2014 Post Gen Z Figure 6: Major Consumers: Now and in the Future Survey Period: July – September 2019. Source: CBRE Research, September 2020. MAJOR CONSUMERS IN 2030 MAJOR CONSUMERS NOW 7 Brookings Institution, 2018. (Link)
  • 15. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. 4.1 VALUE SHOPPING Value shopping - which involves consumers spending on products, services and brands that align with their own values and purposes – will become increasingly prominent over the next decade. Brands are already attempting to differentiate themselves and win business from younger consumers by displaying progressive and inclusive values. Examples include cosmetics manufacturers providing products for a wider range of skin tones, clothing brands using plus size models to advocate body positivity and other retailers adopting buy-one-give-one charitable models. Advances in consumer analytics and the harnessing of big data to create a comprehensive consumer portrait will enable retail occupiers to shift away from one size fits all solutions and towards personalising their offering to shoppers. This will also enable the emergence of niche and independent retailers targeting relatively small consumer groups. CBRE expects this trend to infiltrate the entire shopping journey from marketing messages to dynamic website content and pricing. Retailers will be able to personalise all these aspects based on consumers’ purchase records, browsing history and geolocation information. Selected retailers may even harness their understanding of their consumers to engage in pre-emptive distribution whereby products will be sent out to customers even before they have made a purchase. Product personalisation will also evolve beyond monogramming handbags and making bespoke perfumes. For example, consumers in 2030 may be able to tailor their shoes according to their stride pattern with the help of 3D printing. 4.2 PERSONALISATION
  • 16. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. 4.3 SUSTAINABILITY The advent of lab-grown and plant-based meat suggests more consumers are taking environmental factors into consideration when making purchasing decisions. Consumer demand for products that are natural, organic and ethical will continue to increase over the next decade. Innovations in the fashion industry include jewellery manufactured from recycled silver and nylon made from plastic waste. Several luxury brands have discontinued their use of animal products such as crocodile skins and are investing in the development of green materials. Consumers are demanding retailers provide information about their production processes and environmental footprint. Supply chain transparency and traceability – in which blockchain may play a prominent role - will become an essential tool for retailers to engage with consumers. Impact of COVID-19: Infusing Health & Wellness into Retail The pandemic is likely to lead to a permanent shift in attitudes towards health and wellness in the physical retail environment. Key elements may include the following: SAFETY PROTECTION CLEANLINESS Provide a safe shopping environment by ensuring social distancing, temperature controls and established protocols to handle infected cases. Enhance cleaning and sanitisation of physical space and air conditioning systems. More cleaning robots and touchless technology will be used. Ensure the sufficient supply of personal protective equipment and establish policies on wearing masks in stores.
  • 17. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. THE FUTURE OF THE RETAIL STORE
  • 18. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. 5.1 DESIGN AND CONFIGURATION While brick-and-mortar retail will undoubtedly remain key in 2030, store design and location strategy must evolve in response to consumers’ changing expectations. CBRE foresees the redistribution of space between the various areas of retail stores such as fitting rooms, product testing zones, pick-up counters and stockrooms. This will see less space allocated to areas that have a minimal positive impact on consumer satisfaction. Most survey respondents anticipate lower space requirements for in-store inventory storage and check-out counters. With inventory management already being optimised with the aid of predictive demand analytics, brick-and-mortar stores may eventually become inventory-free as purchases are dispatched from warehouses to consumers’ homes upon payment. Check-out counters are also being reduced in size or replaced entirely by mobile Point of Sale (POS) systems. Existing self-checkout services are likely to be enhanced by mobile wallets and facial recognition. However, luxury groups expect to continue to be able to provide full-service checkout and gift-wrapping services, ideally in a lounge-type environment, as part of their focus on providing an upscale experience to their customers. Product display areas will expand as visual merchandising takes on a more important role in generating traction with consumers. Many retailers are investing in leading edge designs for their flagship stores to highlight specific product features rather than engaging in the type of standard merchandising found in their other stores. This trend is expected to gradually spread to other store formats as e-commerce grabs a larger share of merchandising and inventory.
  • 19. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% % of Respondents Increase significantly THE STORE OF THE FUTURE Shelf Space/ Product Display Area Become obsolete Fitting Room or Product Trial Zone Pick Up / Return Point for Online Orders Storage/ Backroom Space Check-out/ Cashier Survey Period: July – September 2019. Source: CBRE Research, September 2020. Figure 7: Within retail stores, what kind of space would you expect to increase significantly/become obsolete by 2030?
  • 20. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. RETAIL STORES WILL PROVIDE EXPERIENCE AND CONVENIENCE More space for product trials and experiences will be needed to enable consumers to touch, try and test goods and services. These zones will be designed to provide consumers with extensive illustrations of product functionality. For examples, shoppers will be able to test out new shoes on in- store synthetic and concrete pavements before committing to a purchase. With studies showing that consumers tend to make additional spending in- store when picking up online purchases, some retailers have already installed click-and-collect areas. Most occupier respondents to the survey expect to have dedicated zones to accommodate online orders and returns. With the pandemic boosting online sales, CBRE expects the introduction of such areas to accelerate in the near future. This will have a long-lasting impact on store layout, shop sizes and locational strategy. Respondents from the F&B sector shared a similar view, with many groups expressing an interest in setting up smaller sized stores providing takeaway services to customers seeking convenience. Surging demand for food delivery services witnessed since the pandemic may endure, leading to increased requirements for cloud kitchens. CBRE expects the brick-and-mortar stores of 2030 to play a role as lifestyle hubs proving settings for product experimentation, interaction with salespeople and socialising. Many retailers have already opened in-store cafés and bars and the coming decade is likely to see the introduction of more social elements into flagship or large-scale stores, such as by hosting workshops and events. There will also be more frequent collaboration between different retailers and industries – a trend that may generate stronger demand for multi-purpose and flexible retail space. Impact of COVID-19: Brick-and-mortar stores adapt to omnichannel retailing Despite the surge in online retailing since the onset of the pandemic, many retailers have experienced disruption to their delivery services. Enhancing last mile fulfillment capacity via brick-and-mortar stores networks will be essential in the coming years. 68% of respondents to CBRE’s latest Asia Pacific Retail Flash Survey intent to launch or expand click and collect services. At the same time, more than half of retailers say they will designate more space in stores to handling online orders.
  • 21. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. 5.2 STORE PORTFOLIO MIX The changing role of brick-and-mortar stores will spur retailers to diversify their store formats and functions. CBRE expects to see fewer standard stores and more stores with unique features and product mix – all of which will continue to operate under a cohesive brand culture. Pop up-stores and other on-demand retail and event space will attract stronger demand in the years to 2030. As retailers seek more flexible and responsive sales networks to cater to rapidly changing consumer preferences, this will lead to a preference for shorter leases. Plug-and-play retail units and online marketplaces advertising short term leases for retail space are already facilitating the growth of small and independent brands. The survey also noted some demand for unconventional formats such as shipping containers in retail parks along with some interest in crossover and collaboration with other retail brands. Showrooms that come with customised design and décor will also be increasingly utilised as retailers look to build a deeper connection with consumers by creating “stories” or a “journey” inside their stores. Source: CBRE Research, September 2020. Figure 8: The Future Retail Store Network
  • 22. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. THE FUTURE FOR LANDLORDS
  • 23. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. RETHINKING STRATEGIES AND REDEFINING PERFORMANCE Property owners anticipate a challenging environment over the next decade, with 74% of landlord respondents stating that they expect leasing markets to favour tenants. In addition to rapid e-commerce growth and changing consumer preferences, landlords’ concerns include the potential disappearance of existing retail trades and formats along with changes to how properties are valued. This will require retail landlords to rethink their business strategies and redefine performance metrics. 6.1 VISUAL STIMULI Consumers’ visits to shopping centres are already becoming more purpose- driven, with many shoppers conducting research and online purchases well in advance. Landlords will therefore have to provide more features to attract and impress the public. This can be achieved by creating a compelling visual experience through building architecture, art installations and other décor. Shopping centre design and layout should also seek to generate and guide pedestrian circulation around these features. 6.2 THEMATIC DESIGN The shopping centres and retail stores of the future will evolve from the standard enclosed big box layouts of today. Artistic and cultural elements will be increasingly incorporated into properties and will eventually operate as both amenities and components of the tenant mix. Hong Kong SAR’s K11 Musea – one of a series of museum-retail shopping malls operated by New World Development- features extensive art, design and architectural features along with a host of cultural activities and workshops as part of its shopper loyalty programme. Impact of COVID-19: Introduction of more specific Force Majeure clauses Most tenants have found that Force Majeure terms and conditions in their leases failed to address the lockdowns or mandatory business closures they experienced. While 72% of retailers want to insert and expand Force Majeure clauses in future leases, CBRE expects greater attention to be paid to specific wordings and terminology in future lease negotiations and the detailing of conditions that would invalidate lease obligations. Source: Retail Flash Survey, September/October 2020, CBRE Research
  • 24. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. RETHINKING STRATEGIES AND REDEFINING PERFORMANCE New shopping malls will also incorporate more natural elements such as vertical greening and water features. The trend towards including green features as well as more space dedicated to outdoor areas is expected to be accelerated by the pandemic. By 2030, shopping mall tenants are likely to be organised by lifestyle and image rather than type of trade. In the future of retail, shopping centre landlords will play a key role in facilitating collaboration between tenants while introducing external parties for potential cooperation and partnership. 6.3 PERFORMANCE METRICS The coming decade will see the advent of a new approach to quantifying store productivity, with performance measurement expanding beyond in-store sales activity to include omni-channel sales. New metrics are likely to include foot traffic generation, in-mall engagement and social media performance. 6.4 NEW SOURCES OF INCOME While rental income will continue to be landlords’ major income stream, property owners will increasingly explore other sources of revenue generation such as on-demand facilities, in-mall advertising and sponsorship. Recent examples of this trend in Asia include Singapore’s Jewel Changi Airport, which secured HSBC, Shiseido and Manulife as naming rights partners for some of its major attractions. Live streaming has emerged as a popular consumer engagement and sales channel since the pandemic – a trend that is expected to gain further momentum over the next decade. Many retail brands are already collaborating with Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs), while shopping centre operators such as Intime are deploying salespersons as livestream hosts.
  • 25. PERFORMANCE METRICS On-demand space Impression- based turnover rent NEW SOURCES OF INCOME In-mall advertising Sponsorship VISUAL STIMULI Browse online Circulation by eye THEMATIC DESIGN Mix with amenities Theme mix RETHINKING STRATEGIES AND REDEFINING PERFORMANCE
  • 26. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. Impact of COVID-19: The future of retail leases CBRE’s Retail Flash Survey conducted in September 2020 asked retailers to identify the most important clauses they would like to include in future leases. Popular responses included the following: 25% 44% 49% 49% 72% Shorter lease terms Turnover rent clauses Regular rental reviews during lease terms Early break clauses Insert and expand Force Majeure clauses
  • 27. THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: A VIEW OF 2030 | CBRE RESEARCH © 2020 CBRE, INC. CONCLUSION The next decade will bring significant change for the retail industry as leasing demand evolves; new technologies are adopted; the next generation of consumers enters the marketplace; store design and configuration are overhauled; and landlords adopt new operating strategies and performance metrics. CBRE expects retail operations to converge into a single model known as Phygital — physical and digital — involving the unification of e-commerce and brick-and- mortar stores to cater to consumer demand for convenience, speed and cost8. Retail occupiers, landlords and investors are advised to develop closer relationships and shift away from being purely transactional and towards becoming true partners. Collaboration, innovation and differentiation will be the keys to success in the future of retail. 8 Global Outlook 2030: The Age of Responsive Real Estate, CBRE Research, 2020. (Link)
  • 28. Research Report Authors Henry Chin, Ph.D. Head of Global Investor Thought Leadership Head of Research, APAC henry.chin@cbre.com.hk Ada Choi, CFA Head of Occupier Research, APAC ada.choi@cbre.com.hk Liz Hung Associate Director, APAC liz.hung@cbre.com.hk George Wang Senior Analyst, APAC george.wang@cbre.com Sabrina Lam Analyst, APAC sabrina.lam@cbre.com FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REGIONAL REPORT, PLEASE CONTACT CBRE RESEARCH This report was prepared by the CBRE Asia Pacific Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research—a network of preeminent researchers who collaborate to provide real estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication. To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at reports www.cbre.com/research-and-reports © 2020 CBRE, Inc Follow CBRE Retail Advisory Services | Middle East Heather Longden Director Advisory & Transactions heather.longden@cbre.com James Lynn Director Strategic Advisory james.lynn@cbre.com