The Future of Forecasting
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Increasingly powerful computer processors, ubiquitous sensors, artificial intelligence, and Massive Data™ will advance the field of forecasting. Yet the job of strategic analyst will remain one of knowing how to present such insights to decision makers. For more check out https://www.competitivefutures.com and http://www.ericgarland.co
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The Future of Forecasting
- 1. THE FUTURE OF FORECASTING ERIC GARLAND
- 2. Forecasting has been, is, and will always be about collecting data, applying analytical tools, and convincing decision makers. THE FUTURE: More data collected More help from software Considerably more complexity Still the same human activity TL;DR
- 3. EVERYBODY FORECASTS • CEOs • Financial forecasters • Product managers • Supply chain engineers • Geopolitical risk analysts • Subject matter experts • Futurists • Bankers • People getting a puppy • Kids picking a college major • Anyone who has babies • Anyone who wants to retire
- 5. Let’s do some mid-term normative scenarios on rain and saber-toothed tigers.
- 6. Same impulse, crappy data set, crappy tools
- 7. “What sir? You would make a ship that sails against the winds and tides? I have no time for such nonsense.” - Napoleon Bonaparte to Robert Fulton, 1803
- 8. “It has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communications. The device is inherently of no use to us.” - Western Union, internal memo, 1876
- 9. OMG THIS TECHNOLOGY WILL LEAD TO WORLD PEACE!
- 10. WORLD PEACE!
- 11. WORLD PEACE!
- 12. WORLD PEACE!
- 14. How did we miss this?
- 15. In 2003, the Japanese Nuclear Commission said this would happen once per million years.
- 16. OUR CURRENT PREDICAMENT: We try to fit mechanistic, incremental forecasting into a complex, transformative world
- 17. WHERE WE GO FROM HERE: Trends driving the future of forecasting
- 18. STRATEGIC TRENDS Moore’s Law Continues Advanced sensor arrays Quantum computing Massive Data™ Advanced algorithms Virtual reality People remain people
- 19. INTEL FORECAST: MOORE’S LAW WILL FUNCTION THROUGH 2021 AND BEYOND
- 21. MICROSOFT FORECAST: FIRST QUANTUM COMPUTER BY 2026
- 22. MASSIVE DATA
- 23. A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS