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THE FUTURE OF
FORECASTING
ERIC GARLAND
Forecasting has been, is, and will
always be about collecting data,
applying analytical tools, and
convincing decision makers.
THE FUTURE:
More data collected
More help from software
Considerably more complexity
Still the same human activity
TL;DR
EVERYBODY FORECASTS
• CEOs
• Financial forecasters
• Product managers
• Supply chain engineers
• Geopolitical risk analysts
• Subject matter experts
• Futurists
• Bankers
• People getting a puppy
• Kids picking a college major
• Anyone who has babies
• Anyone who wants to retire
FORECASTING:
WE ALL SUCK
AT IT
Let’s do some mid-term
normative scenarios on rain
and saber-toothed tigers.
Same impulse, crappy data set,
crappy tools
“What sir? You would make a ship that
sails against the winds and tides?
I have no time for such nonsense.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte to Robert Fulton, 1803
“It has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communications.
The device is inherently of no use to us.”
- Western Union, internal memo, 1876
OMG
THIS TECHNOLOGY
WILL LEAD TO
WORLD PEACE!
WORLD
PEACE!
WORLD
PEACE!
WORLD
PEACE!
How did we
miss this?
In 2003, the Japanese Nuclear Commission said this would happen
once per million years.
OUR CURRENT PREDICAMENT:
We try to fit mechanistic, incremental
forecasting into a complex,
transformative world
WHERE WE
GO FROM HERE:
Trends driving the
future of forecasting
STRATEGIC TRENDS
Moore’s Law Continues
Advanced sensor arrays
Quantum computing
Massive Data™
Advanced algorithms
Virtual reality
People remain people
INTEL FORECAST:
MOORE’S LAW WILL
FUNCTION THROUGH 2021
AND BEYOND
SENSORS EVERYWHERE
MICROSOFT FORECAST:
FIRST QUANTUM COMPUTER BY 2026
MASSIVE DATA
A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS
MEGATREND:
PEOPLE WILL
REMAIN PEOPLE
WWW.COMPETITIVEFUTURES.COM
WWW.ERICGARLAND.CO
@ERICGARLAND
ERIC GARLAND

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