The Colorado River: Behind the Headlines: Views From the Field - Plenary I - 2023 Water for Food Global Conference.pptx
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“The Colorado River: Behind the Headlines: View from the Field” by Felicia Marcus at the 2023 Water for Food Global Conference. A recording of the presentation can be found on the conference playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLSBeKOIXsg3JNyPowwJj6NDSpx4vlnCYj.
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The Colorado River: Behind the Headlines: Views From the Field - Plenary I - 2023 Water for Food Global Conference.pptx
- 1. The Colorado River: BEHIND THE HEADLINES: VIEWS FROM THE FIELD Daugherty Global Water for Food Institute Gobal Conference Lincoln, Nebraska May 8, 2023
- 2. Not just California’s Impact of loss of snowpack severe to system dependent upon imported water
- 3. Context Western “mega-drought” Colorado River23 year drought Reservoirs near deadpool & power generation at risk Climate Change as gamechanger Bye Bye Snowpack ”Weather Whiplash” Too little and too much
- 4. Kind of a big deal Wyoming Utah Colorado New Mexico ______________ Arizona Nevada California _______________ 10 or 30* Tribes _______________ Mexico 40 million people*
- 6. This is California on Climate Change…and rest of Rocky Mountain States too Source: NASA
- 7. Ditto Rockies Not so picturesque but just as dramatic in real life This year’s snowpackapalooza in CA more dramatic than in Rockies, but nonetheless welcome and glorious But only buys a relative nanosecond of time to change our consumption
- 8. Some elements to bear in mind At tail end of 23 year drought, now punctuated by a snowpack refresh Geophysical record shows far longer droughts; climate change exacerbates in a bad way Drought not ”over.” Would take a parade of these years to refill; estimates are it never will Lowest levels in reservoirs since they were constructed Very different physical settings & perspectives among the states, tribes, and nations. River governed by “law of the river” including Supreme Court cases and a variety of agreements Have been interim agreements that have delayed this day Politics are hard—so this one worthy of Dune, 3 dimensional chessboards, or whatever metaphors you favor
- 9. Where we are now Federal government (BOR/DOI) has signaled in a series of steps that they will take action in the absence of a seven state agreement. Modeling runs supplied by six states and California end of January. $4 billion from Inflation Reduction Act set aside to help in process of allocation. Temporary cutbacks (done) Longer term cutbacks (to come) Ecosystem restoration (Salton Sea) ($250 million) April Draft DEIS with alternatives July/August Bureau decision re allocations Potential alternative agreement/Litigation
- 10. Thank you!
- 11. Slides to save for discussion, or??
- 12. Key things to watch for Will Federal government hold the line? What will they fund with the rest of the $4billion IRA and $4billion more? Did they aim too low at 2.83 maf? Can they broker a deal? Leadership: can individuals in various positions rise to the occasion? Can we get to interim agreement now so that we can talk 2026? Even without federal “cover,” will leaders emerge? Media coverage has largely missed the “boat” What’s happening behind closed doors is key; media can’t get to that so far Will we see more exploration of the equities? What are the options for 2026? Have to be dramatic. How do we mitigate agricultural community impacts? How do we bring Tribes into their rightful roles Can we develop a healthy ag-urban-tribal series of agreements? With env too?
- 13. The opportunity: Tools: Conservation and efficiency of all kinds Lawns and leaks Agricultural production shifts in scale and type Water Recycling Stormwater capture Desal in appropriate circumstances Sustainable Groundwater Management And… Nature-based solutions! Relationships: Ag/Urban/Tribal/Env—it could happen Not: icebergs, pipelines from Great Lakes & Mississippi, or massive desal from Mexico….yet.
Editor's Notes
- Good afternoon. Delighted to be here with all of you.
- Famous Mike Dettinger chart from USGS. Would love to see the China version Hard to read—but the darker it is, the more variation, unpredictability year to year This is defining characteristic statewide. And, it does show a bit of the west.
- Mega drought: 1200 years or whatever you pick. It is a whammy. Colorado River—40 million dependent 23 year drought Lake Mead and Lake Powell lower than anytime since filled in middle of last century 7 States, 10 or 30 tribes depending on how you count it 2 countries Sierras in CA—East and West: in and out of drought for decade. Mine 2012 or 13 to 2017. Then drought of record; just had another that was worse and we may still be in, though recordbreaker snowpack. Can explain why. Exacerbated by years of GW overdraft to tune of 2-3 MAF a year. Climate change as gamechanger
- Most importat slide I have. It’s our future we need to be thinking about rather than the past as roadmap. This is our future under climate change—WATER IS BLEEDING EDGE OF CLIMATE ADAPTATION;
- Now to be clear—we’re not talking mega water, but we are talking big improvements in water quality and in supply, and more importantly in the timing of supply. Data growing; still in progress—but I’ll give you exaples shortly of water agencies stepping up to invest in upper watershed management and ecological restoration to take out excess trees (that yup drink water but it is more complicated than that). More important is to take out the overgrowth of fuel that leads to massive conflagrations that send toxics and sediment into streams, reservoirs and communities. Meadow restoration, allows water to slow and spread and sink into the ground, creating natural firebreaks, but also slowing the flow of water that moves underground and returns to streamflow later—replacing some part of the timing benefit we get from the snow pack we are going to lose. For the reasons I explained earlier, that timing aspect is crucial.