1. Anthony G. Picciano
CUNY Graduate Center and Hunter College
The 4th
Wave:
The Online Learning Landscape
November 2014
2. 2
Presentation Outline
.The Evolution of Online Learning
.The 1st Wave – 1990s
.The 2nd Wave – Early 2000s to 2008
.The 3rd Wave – 2008 to 2013
.The 4th Wave – 2014 ->
.Questions
3. 3
The 1st Wave – 1990s
•Technology – Slow-speed Internet
•Model – Pedagogical – Asynchronous Learning Network (ALN)/Largely Text-Based
•Key Players – Mostly Public Universities, Community Colleges, and For-Profit Colleges with already
established distance learning programs (i.e., UMUC, Penn State World Campus, SUNY Empire State, APUS)
•Funding –
I. Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (1992) - Anytime, Anyplace Learning Program.
Proceeds to award $72 million over twenty years for online and blended learning
development in American public and non-profit colleges and universities.
II. For-profit universities (U. of Phoenix) invest tens of millions of dollars in online learning development.
.Enrollment – 100,000s of students enrolled each year in for-credit courses – 1 million in 2000.
.Concerns – Neil Postman (The End of Education); David Noble (Digital Diploma Mills),
4. 4
The 2nd Wave – Early 2000s to 2008
•Technology – High-Speed Internet (Cable modems, DSL)
•Model – Pedagogical - Blended Learning /Social and Multi-Media/Open Resources Evolve
•Key Players – Mainstream Public Higher Education, Tuition-driven Non-Profits, For-Profits
•Funding – Universities, States, Foundations
Venture Capitalists in For-Profit Sector
.Enrollment – Millions of students enrolled each year in for-credit courses – 5 million by 2008.
.Concerns – For-Profit Colleges and Universities Scale Up/Issues of Federal Financial Aid
5. 5
The 3rd Wave – 2008 to 2013
•Technology – High-Speed Internet – Mobile Computing
•Model – MOOC – Access/Cost Benefit Model/Social and Multi-Media Infused/Open Source Expands
•Key Players – Non-Profit Private Universities (Stanford, M.I.T., Harvard)-
•Funding – Venture Capital -> MOOC Providers (Udacity, Coursera. edX)
.Enrollment – Millions of students enrolled each year in credit and non-credit bearing courses.
7 million students enrolled in fully online for-credit courses in 2012.
Several million more in blended and non-credit courses.
.Concern – MOOCs Create Media Frenzy/Online Learning Overhyped as a Silver Bullet
6. 6
The 4thWave – 2014 ->
•Technology – Super High-Speed Internet – Mobile Computing/Tablets
•Model – Reconciliation of the 2nd Wave Pedagogical/Blended Learning &
3rd
Wave Access/MOOC Models PLUS
I. Learning Analytics
II. Adaptive Learning/Differentiated Instruction
III. Competency-Based Instruction (Western Governors University/Southern New Hampshire Model)
IV. Social Media Fuels Collaboration
IV. Open Sources/Learning Objects
V. Gaming/MUVE
•Key Players – All of Higher Education
•Funding – Universities, Venture Capitalists, MOOC Providers, States
.Enrollment – Millions of students enrolled each year in credit and non-credit bearing courses.
8 million students enrolled in fully online for-credit courses in 2014.
By 2017-18, 50% of all students will likely be taking at least one online course per year.
7. 7
Theme for the 4th Wave - One Size Will Not Fit All!
• Different strokes for different folks.
• Different types of schools will approach
Online and Blended Learning and MOOC technology differently.
• Different programs/disciplines/faculty will approach
Online and Blended Learning and MOOC technology differently.
• Different students will approach
Online and Blended Learning and MOOC technology differently.
8. 8
Concerns in the 4th Wave -
• Government Intervention and Oversight (Federal and State)
• Corporations/Corporate-Affiliated Foundations Influence
• Funding – Venture Capitalists
• Global Enterprises
• The “Disruptors”
9. 9
Challenge to Faculty during the 4th Wave
The Chronicle of Higher Education in a survey of college presidents (N=349) focused on
the future of innovation in higher education. (2014)
•Direction: Two-thirds of presidents of public institutions think that higher education is
headed in the right direction, as do well over half of their private campus peers.
•Modality: An overwhelming majority of presidents—three quarters at private
institutions and even more at public campuses—think that blended courses that contain
both face-to-face and online components will have a positive impact on higher education
•Focus: Presidents say that when it comes to innovation in higher education, reformers
pay too much attention to cutting costs and not enough to changing the model of
teaching and learning.
•Change drivers: Two-thirds of public-institution presidents think that politicians are the
most influential drivers of change in higher education and half of private-campus
presidents agree with that assessment. The presidents on both types of campuses believe
strongly that faculty should be the number one drivers of change.
10. 10
Questions to consider?
•Has online education really changed the education landscape or is it just another
modality?
•In the next decade do you think we will redefine what higher education means, as
colleges offer more open courseware?
•Much has been written of the benefits of blended courses but blended courses are
fewest in number (at least at CUNY) - why do you think this is the case?
The American higher education system is made up of a multitude of institutions from community colleges that have done an incredible job of providing access to an education but struggle mightily with graduation rates to research universities and medical schools that are the envy of every country in the world. We have for-profits, not-for profits, private, public, and religious-affiliated schools. No one size will fit all. Furthermore, the students who attend these institutions are different also. The student who is 18 years old, who attends an Ivy Leagues school and scores in the 90 percentile her/his SATs and aspires to go to law school upon graduation is not the same student who might be 35 years old who attends a community college, who needs to take remedial courses in basic skills and hope to be a dental assistant.
Summit held last year in Cambridge and sponsored by MIT and Harvard.
The Chronicle of Higher Education is reporting on a private summit held in Cambridage, Massachusetts, on Monday and sponsored by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University, at which many of online education's heaviest hitters discussed the future of residential higher education, particularly at elite institutions, in a digital age.
The article comments:
“while online education may have arrived at the upper echelons of higher education, it's not going to make elite colleges any cheaper to attend. Massive open online courses and other online tools, however, may change many aspects of top undergraduate campuses. That was the conclusion of a private summit, After years of standing by while the online wave gathered momentum at lower-tier institutions, MIT and Harvard last year gave online education a $60-million bear hug by collaborating to found edX, a nonprofit MOOC provider that could also serve as a laboratory for studying the dynamics of virtual classrooms. The universities made it clear then that they intended to use their MOOCs to improve, not supplant, traditional courses.
Furthermore,
“Some attempts to use MOOCs to improve the experience of traditional students have not panned out. One panelist said early attempts at his university to foster interaction between learners in the traditional and MOOC versions of a course met with resistance from the tuition-paying students, who wanted a distinct experience for their money.
Those students may eventually come around, but the amount they are paying for a traditional college experience probably will not—at least not at top colleges. None of the institutions represented at the summit is likely to use any revenue or savings from the use of online tools to lower tuition, said one provost. No one at the session disagreed.
It's more likely that online tools will be used to increase value at the same price, said another provost. That means more seminars, more project-based courses, and more mentorship opportunities, he said.”
Taking another view was William G. Bowen, the former president of Princeton University, who:
“reminded the audience that they occupied "really rarefied air" in deciding how they might want to use online education.
But professors who are serious about reaching the masses online, he said, will have to think about innovation and design with a broader, more diverse audience in mind.
"I would humbly suggest that the kinds of assessment and standards and all the rest that I'm sure are appropriate at MIT and Harvard and so forth," Mr. Bowen said, "have very little relevance for the large parts of American higher education, particularly in the state systems, that are under genuine siege."
Tony
http://chronicle.com/article/Online-Education-May-Make-Top/137687/?cid=at&utm_source=at&utm_medium=en
The American higher education system is made up of a multitude of institutions from community colleges that have done an incredible job of providing access to an education but struggle mightily with graduation rates to research universities and medical schools that are the envy of every country in the world. We have for-profits, not-for profits, private, public, and religious-affiliated schools. No one size will fit all. Furthermore, the students who attend these institutions are different also. The student who is 18 years old, who attends an Ivy Leagues school and scores in the 90 percentile her/his SATs and aspires to go to law school upon graduation is not the same student who might be 35 years old who attends a community college, who needs to take remedial courses in basic skills and hope to be a dental assistant.
Summit held this past Monday in Cambridge and sponsored by MIT and Harvard.
The Chronicle of Higher Education is reporting on a private summit held in Cambridage, Massachusetts, on Monday and sponsored by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University, at which many of online education's heaviest hitters discussed the future of residential higher education, particularly at elite institutions, in a digital age.
The article comments:
“while online education may have arrived at the upper echelons of higher education, it's not going to make elite colleges any cheaper to attend. Massive open online courses and other online tools, however, may change many aspects of top undergraduate campuses. That was the conclusion of a private summit, After years of standing by while the online wave gathered momentum at lower-tier institutions, MIT and Harvard last year gave online education a $60-million bear hug by collaborating to found edX, a nonprofit MOOC provider that could also serve as a laboratory for studying the dynamics of virtual classrooms. The universities made it clear then that they intended to use their MOOCs to improve, not supplant, traditional courses.
Furthermore,
“Some attempts to use MOOCs to improve the experience of traditional students have not panned out. One panelist said early attempts at his university to foster interaction between learners in the traditional and MOOC versions of a course met with resistance from the tuition-paying students, who wanted a distinct experience for their money.
Those students may eventually come around, but the amount they are paying for a traditional college experience probably will not—at least not at top colleges. None of the institutions represented at the summit is likely to use any revenue or savings from the use of online tools to lower tuition, said one provost. No one at the session disagreed.
It's more likely that online tools will be used to increase value at the same price, said another provost. That means more seminars, more project-based courses, and more mentorship opportunities, he said.”
Taking another view was William G. Bowen, the former president of Princeton University, who:
“reminded the audience that they occupied "really rarefied air" in deciding how they might want to use online education.
But professors who are serious about reaching the masses online, he said, will have to think about innovation and design with a broader, more diverse audience in mind.
"I would humbly suggest that the kinds of assessment and standards and all the rest that I'm sure are appropriate at MIT and Harvard and so forth," Mr. Bowen said, "have very little relevance for the large parts of American higher education, particularly in the state systems, that are under genuine siege."
Tony
http://chronicle.com/article/Online-Education-May-Make-Top/137687/?cid=at&utm_source=at&utm_medium=en
What I have presented sees Blended Learning and MOOCs as the future for the next 7-10 years. Just as we saw an expansion of large lecture halls at American colleges and universities in the late 1970s and 1980s, we will see the expansion of blended learning/MOOCs.