While the threat of a terrorist attack is still very real in certain areas of the Asia Pacific, the region has seen several key country risk levels drop or remain low for 2016, according to Aon’s Terrorism and Political Violence Map, created in collaboration with The Risk Advisory Group. This year Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar all reported a decrease in risk from high to moderate while Australia’s risk level remained low. Terrorism is cited as the main concern in Australia and Thailand and while the political environment in both Philippines and Myanmar has stablished somewhat, civil unrest and political violence are still the principal threats the countries face.

1. Aon Risk Solutions
Global Broking Centre | Crisis Management
Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
2016
Terrorism & Political
Violence Risk Map
Risk of terrorism and political violence reduces in Asia Pacific region
RISKADVISORY

2. Aon Risk Solutions 2016 Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map: Risk of terrorism and political violence reduces in Asia Pacific region 2
Asia Pacific
While the threat of a terrorist attack is still very real in certain areas of the Asia Pacific, the region has seen several
key country risk levels drop or remain low for 2016, according to Aon’s Terrorism and Political Violence Map,
created in collaboration with The Risk Advisory Group.
This year Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar all reported a decrease in risk from high to moderate while
Australia’s risk level remained low. Terrorism is cited as the main concern in Australia and Thailand and while
the political environment in both Philippines and Myanmar has stablished somewhat, civil unrest and political
violence are still the principal threats the countries face.
Australia
While the country risk level remains low for 2016 (in line with
North America and the majority of Western Europe), there remains
a credible threat of terrorist incidents in the country. A lone-actor
attack at a New South Wales police station and at least three foiled
terrorist plots in the last 12 months underline the continued intent of
militant sympathisers or cells to mount attacks within the country.
Australian police have conducted highly publicised raids
countrywide as part of Operation Appleby, a counterterrorism
effort involving federal and state law enforcement, aimed at
disrupting planning around terrorist attacks. Following the attacks
last year, as of Q2 2016, the government assesses a terrorist attack
is ‘probable’.
For the wider peril perspective (political violence & SRCCMD),
there is a minimal risk of civil unrest and armed conflict; terrorism
remains the driver for the country rating at this time.
Philippines
The overall score has been lowered for the country from high to moderate,
but there remains the potential for incidents relating to each of the three perils
measured by the map (terrorism & sabotage, SRCCMD and political violence).
The reduction in the score reflects a decline in the overall number of terrorist
attacks in the country, and our assessment that the prevailing threat of political
violence in much of the country has declined during President Aquino’s tenure.
The south – principally Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago - remains high risk.
Specific risks remain – particularly ahead of national elections in 2016. Political
and anti-foreign protests have taken place within the last 12 months, including
in Metro Manila. Militant Islamist separatist groups remain active in the south,
and although they are predominantly contained in this area several abductions
targeted foreign nationals in the Philippines in 2015. Meanwhile, the communist
rebel New People’s Army continued its insurgency in rural areas countrywide,
occasionally targeting commercial operations in remote locations.

3. Aon Risk Solutions 2016 Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map: Risk of terrorism and political violence reduces in Asia Pacific region 3
Thailand
Thailand’s country risk level was lowered from high to moderate this
year. Tight political and social controls under the military government
mean that a recurrence of major unrest in Bangkok is unlikely, for
now, and with the junta holding a firm grip on power, the prospect of
regime instability is also reduced.
The threat of terrorism remains high in the far-southern provinces
primarily. However, following the Bangkok bombing in August 2015,
there remains a legitimate threat of terrorist attacks in the capital, as
well as tourist areas.
Myanmar
The country risk level for Myanmar has been lowered from high to moderate
this year after the country’s general election passed peacefully in late 2015.
Overall, this development contributes to a declining risk of civil unrest and
political violence.
The improvement in the overall rating also reflects a decline in the incidence
of terrorist attacks and of communal violence last year. The risk of incidents
relating to all three measured perils remains, with the potential for sudden
outbreaks of unrest, further terrorist incidents, as well as a breakdown in what
has so far been an orderly political transition from military to civilian rule.

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