3. Issue date: October 2015 Page 2
FOREWORD
by G4S Risk Consulting
Following on from the Q2 and Q3 editions of our 2015 Global Forecast, the Risk Anal-
ysis team have compiled the Global Forecast for Q4. The report focuses on the key
thematic threats that we believe will impact the regions over the coming three months,
providing insight by subject matter experts into the most pertinent risks and threats on
a regional basis.
Key issues include the increasing global threat of militancy as Islamic State (IS) contin-
ues to draw recruits and allegiances from established militant groups in the Middle
East, Africa and Asia. The perceived threat encompasses the wider world as nations
remain concerned over the threat posed by returning fighters and self-radicalised indi-
viduals. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and poor governance in some African
nations is displacing thousands of people, triggering one of the greatest movement of
people into Europe for decades. The influx of refugees and migrants will continue to
feature heavily in Q4 as states protect their national interests at the expense of others.
Beyond the Middle East, rebel groups in the Americas and Asia are becoming increas-
ingly brazen in their bid to win concessions from fragile governments, with violence
expected to continue into Q4. Fragility has also been seen in Europe as the economies
of the union face increasing pressure domestically. Besides the economy, there remains
concern in Europe over the intentions of Russia towards Ukraine.
While the threat of Ebola has eased in West Africa, the Middle East Respiratory Syn-
drome (MERS) virus continues to pose a health risk in the Middle East and in countries
from where the majority of Saudi’s migrant workers and business visitors come from.
Political accountability continues to play a role in change and is increasingly a key trig-
ger of unrest. Several Latin American and Asian countries are witnessing a surge in
protests and resignation demands over corruption, incompetence and frustration at a
lack of services. With key elections due in several European, African and American
states, political instability, protests and uncertainty will feature prominently throughout
the last quarter of 2015.
Ian Betts
Global Head of Risk Analysis
G4S Risk Consulting
ian.betts@rm.g4s.com
4. Issue date: October 2015 Page 3
“The fourth quarter of the year is
expected to be agitated in Latin
America, with a series of contro-
versial presidential elections taking
place in Guatemala, Haiti and Ar-
gentina, as well as long-awaited leg-
islative elections in Venezuela
scheduled in December. The risk of
civil unrest will remain high, particu-
larly in Ecuador, Mexico and Brazil,
where large-scale protests against
government policies and corruption
continue to take place regularly.
The ongoing diplomatic tensions
between Colombia and Venezuela
will continue to pose a risk of vio-
lence in the border regions.”
Jesus Rosano
Chief Operating Officer
G4S Latin America & Caribbean
“Two main issues are expected to r
tion Europe in the fourth quarter: Islam
threat and the migrant crisis. Authorities
further arrests concerning Islamist extrem
dent in Western Europe, particularly Fra
Sweden, remains high. Political tensions an
continue in Eastern Europe, particularly H
the EU considers the complex migrant crisi
“Security risks in sub-Saharan Africa
in the final quarter will centre on political
unrest and terrorism. The recent military
coup d’état in Burkina Faso highlights the
fragile state of democracy in parts of Af-
rica and the scheduled elections in the
DRC, Tanzania, Ivory Coast, Guinea and
Central Africa Republic may see increas-
es in political instability in individual
countries, particularly their capitals.”
Maryke Botha
Africa Risk Services Manager
G4S Africa
5. Issue date: October 2015 Page 4
“The security environment in Asia-
Pacific will remain challenging for busi-
nesses and organisations operating in the
region as several key economies continue
to face heightened political tensions and
threats stemming from a rise in militant
activities. Popular unrest is expected to
persist in several countries, including Ma-
laysia, Myanmar, Nepal and Thailand, while
the Islamic State movement continues to
retain the potential to empower existing
Islamist groups and encourage “lone-wolf”
radicals, particularly in Bangladesh, India
and Indonesia. Moreover, China’s growing
assertiveness in the South China Sea,
along with Beijing’s refusal to engage in
multilateral discussions with rival claim-
ants, will lead to further apprehensions
over territorial and jurisdictional claims
with Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei
and the Philippines.”
Shawn Rathgeber
Hill & Associates
Malaysia
require policy-making and political atten-
mist extremism and the associated terrorism
in Western Europe are expected to make
mism as the risk of a terrorist attack or inci-
ance, the UK, Germany, Spain, Belgium and
nd strain on public services are expected to
Hungary, Italy, Greece, Serbia and Croatia, as
is."
Michiel Deweger
Risk Management Advisor
G4S Netherlands
“Militancy and its spillover will continue to be the centre of
concern in the Middle East and North Africa in Q4. This
is particularly relevant for Turkey where the pursuit of per-
sonal agendas will continue to disrupt effective policy-making
while threatening social stability. The implementation of harsh
counter-terrorism legislation in a number of countries will
increase the risk of civil unrest, exacerbated by a lack of ade-
quate infrastructure and basic services. The resurgence of dis-
eases such as MERS, typhoid, dengue and cholera in conflict
zones and beyond is expected to persist throughout Q4,
straining already fragile infrastructure, as well as affecting busi-
ness continuity in the region.”
Angélique Lecorps
Risk Analysis Consultant, G4S Risk Consulting
6. Issue date: October 2015 Page 5
Elections in October at risk of political unrest
There is a risk of civil unrest and election-related violence
in the coming quarter. Guinea (11 October), Burkina
Faso (11 October), Central African Republic (18 Octo-
ber), Ivory Coast (25 October), Tanzania (25 October)
and DR Congo (25 October) all have elections that will
increase the likelihood of demonstrations and violence lead-
ing up to polls and after any disputed results. Ivory Coast’s
last presidential election in 2010 sparked a civil war and
attention will focus on preventing any return to instability.
Similarly, presidential and parliamentary elections in the
Central African Republic are being treated as critical for the
country’s political future, but they will not act as a solution
for ongoing sectarian violence. Peaceful demonstrations are
likely in Tanzania both before and after the general election
as a coalition of opposition groups seeks to oust the Chama
Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, which has ruled the country
for five decades.
Economic growth to slow
Growth is expected to slow in Q4 in key economies, in-
cluding Nigeria, South Africa and Angola, as global
commodity prices remain low and doubts increase over
foreign investment following the stock market crash in Chi-
na. All three countries are heavily reliant on Chinese sup-
port and with the possibility of decreased investment, their
outlook is uncertain. Low international oil prices will con-
tinue to impact heavily on the two most oil-dependent
economies, Nigeria and Angola. Nigeria’s President Buhari
is expected to announce his cabinet in September after a
lengthy delay that has undermined investor optimism in an
economic policy vacuum. The risk of debilitating strikes in
the gold and coal mining sectors in South Africa is ongoing
as negotiations continue between unions and companies
over pay and conditions.
Gradual progress against insurgencies
Progress against sub-Saharan Africa’s two leading insurgen-
cies – Somalia’s al-Shabaab and Nigeria’s Boko Haram –
will be gradual as resilient militant groups continue to chal-
lenge security forces. An 8,700-strong joint regional task-
force against Boko Haram including troops from Nigeria,
Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Benin will improve coordi-
nation between the different national forces, but with mili-
tants operating in remote areas and using guerrilla tactics
and suicide bombings, progress is likely to be slow and
gradual. As the AMISOM mission continues to make terri-
torial gains in Somalia, al-Shabaab too will be forced to con-
tinue to utilise asymmetric tactics. Terrorist attacks similar
to the bombing of the Jazeera hotel bombing on 26 July in
Mogadishu remain likely against high-profile targets in Soma-
lia as well as in neighbouring Kenya.
Africa
EAST AFRICA: Drought could trigger
widespread famine in Horn of Africa
BURUNDI: Potential for accelerating insur-
gency in north-west, amid rumours of an
exiled group forming in Rwanda
BURKINA FASO: Escalating civil unrest
and subsequent repression following Septem-
ber coup
7. Issue date: October 2015 Page 6
Domestic crackdowns to intensify
In the aftermath of a summer of violence in the Gulf and
other Arab states, a continued and intensified crackdown
on militants and dissidents is expected in Q4. Saudi Ara-
bia has launched a series of arrests against Islamic State (IS)
supporters, members and sympathisers, and this is expected
to continue into Q4. Any terrorist attack, whether thwart-
ed or successful, will see further arrests, as has been the
case in Kuwait. The crackdown is also likely to affect other
activists with legislation likely to be proposed and/or passed
that extends the definitions of terrorism, as in Egypt
where a surge in terrorism-related arrests is expected, and
as well as the remit of the state to impose indefinite deten-
tions.
Meanwhile in Turkey, authorities will continue to target
the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) as clashes and attacks
continue in the south-east of the country. With Turkish
airstrikes targeting PKK and some IS sites in northern Iraq
and Syria, the country’s terrorism risk has risen sharply.
Attacks on security forces near the border are likely, as are
sporadic attacks in major urban centres, including Istanbul.
Unrest over poor public service provision
Protests broke out in Lebanon and Iraq in late Q3 over the
lack, or inadequacy of, public services. Such incidents are
likely to persist, if not escalate, into Q4. With state finances
squeezed by conflict and low oil prices, the ability to ap-
pease tensions with generous welfare benefits, public sector
jobs and cheap utilities is declining. Algeria and Jordan are
the two states most likely to be affected in the coming
quarter.
Health and infrastructure concerns mount
The resurgence of MERS in Saudi Arabia in the latter
stages of Q3 may translate into further cases in Q4. Alt-
hough the virus does not spread easily between humans, an
apparent lack of awareness of the disease or observation of
quarantine measures is facilitating its spread, with many new
infections reported among healthcare workers.
Concerns are also rising over measles and typhoid in Iraq
and Syria, as the Syria civil war and the IS insurgency in
northern Iraq have severely damaged already sparse public
health infrastructure. Outbreaks of Dengue fever in Yem-
en are likely to worsen as health infrastructure there has
collapsed, exacerbated by water, food and medical supply
shortages. The UN warns that Yemen is on the brink of
famine, making the population more vulnerable to epidem-
ics.
Severe storms in November 2014 swept across the Levant
region, triggering flooding in the Gaza Strip, Jordan and
Lebanon. Exacerbated by the dearth of drainage infrastruc-
ture in the countries, weather-related security issues are
likely to be prevalent in the latter part of Q4. Heavy snow
also hit the area in January 2015. This may also occur in the
latter stages of Q4, resulting in disruption to transport.
Middle East & North Africa
LIBYA/YEMEN: Escalating violence as civil wars and Islamic State continue
into Q4; peace negotiations unlikely to bear fruit, while in Syria political dead-
lock will continue as key players refuse to review their position on key issues
TURKEY/IRAQ: Increased Turkish and European par-
ticipation in anti-IS coalition will improve aerial cam-
paign, although on-the-ground weaknesses remain
MOROCCO: Continued re-
ports of IS-linked arrests
8. Issue date: October 2015 Page 7
Political risks abound in South-east Asia
Political-related unrest is expected to continue into Q4 as
crucial elections are due in Myanmar on 8 November,
Thailand’s generals continue to push back a return to dem-
ocratic rule and disputes over the constitution in Nepal
trigger violence which is expected to continue unless mi-
nority demands are addressed. In Myanmar, the opposi-
tion National League of Democracy (NLD) is expected to
perform well, but it is unlikely to take the lead in forming a
government due to the military’s control over parliament.
In Thailand, the 20 August Bangkok bombing highlights the
fragility of stability in the country. The ruling junta is likely
to keep pushing elections back until the King passes away,
which increases the probability of renewed unrest. An em-
boldened civil society in Malaysia will place pressure on
Prime Minister Najib Razak to step down over a corruption
scandal, but opposition weakness suggests that the falling
Malaysian currency presents a greater threat to his position.
Security agencies challenged by militancy
With the Taliban fragmenting in Afghanistan, insurgents
will continue brazen attacks in Kabul and strategic towns as
new leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour strives to assert his
leadership and undermine President Ashraf Ghani, whose
popularity is plummeting as the peace process stalls. Across
the border, the Pakistan military persists with operations
against insurgents in the tribal areas as the security environ-
ment remains weak. In India, Bangladesh and Indonesia,
Islamic State (IS) retains the potential to empower existing
Islamist militant movements and encourage “lone-wolf”
radicals, raising the risk of a high-profile terrorist attack. In
the Philippines, President Benigno Aquino will be under
pressure to secure passage of the draft Bangsamoro Basic
Law (BBL) and end the MILF insurgency, or face the risk
that the legislation is not picked up again in the lead-up to
the May 2016 elections.
Regional tensions no closer to resolution
Ongoing intransigence between India and Pakistan over
Kashmir is set to ensure that national security adviser-level
talks fail to improve bilateral relations. Sporadic exchange of
fire across the border will periodically heighten tensions
prior to de-escalation. Negotiations between North Ko-
rea and South Korea in the wake of tensions during Q3
are unlikely to result in fundamental differences being ad-
dressed, particularly over the nuclear programme. With the
10 October anniversary of the founding of the Communist
Party, there is a heightened risk of missile launches in Q4.
Japan’s passing of a revised security bill that allows for mili-
tary engagement will strain ties with China, which will use
anti-Japanese rhetoric to distract attention from its own
domestic crisis in the financial and economic sectors. With-
in the South China Sea, a clear resumption of China’s land
reclamation activities could lead to further flight incursions
by the US surveillance aircraft over Chinese-claimed is-
lands, although Washington will be keen to avoid actions
that could trigger the declaration of an Air Defence Identifi-
cation Zone (ADIZ). Beijing will continue to refuse to en-
gage in multilateral discussions with rival claimants.
Asia
Thailand/Myanmar: Governments’ make
progress with rebels groups, possibly reduc-
ing the rate of attacks
Philippines/Taiwan: Election campaigns
intensify ahead of elections in both coun-
tries in 2016
9. Issue date: October 2015 Page 8
Unrest and political tensions to mark elections
With elections due in multiple Latin America countries in
Q4, large-scale protests and unrest are expected both in
the build-up to and in the aftermath of polls. In Guatema-
la, nationwide demonstrations are expected during the run-
off presidential vote due on 25 October following the in-
dictment of former president Otto Perez Molina on corrup-
tion charges. In Haiti, long-delayed presidential elections
will also take place on 25 October. Government opponents
have vowed to sabotage the polls amid concerns over the
electoral process. Argentina’s President Cristina Fernan-
dez will end her term in December. Although the opposi-
tion is running a popular campaign focused on removing
current market restraints, a recent surge in the polls by
Fernandez’s left-wing movement signals that the October
election is likely to be close, with the possibility of a second
round in November. In Venezuela, political tensions are
set to increase ahead of the highly-awaited legislative elec-
tions on 6 December. Although the Maduro administration
continues to face declining approval ratings, it has banned a
large number of prominent opposition legislators from run-
ning in the elections. A series of government manoeuvres
aimed at stemming dissent and weakening the anti-
“Chavismo” movement is expected to trigger unrest
throughout Q4.
Unpopular policies breed social discontent
Large protests across the region are expected to continue
into Q4 as populations attempt to hold their leaders to
account for increasingly unpopular policies. Brazil’s Presi-
dent Dilma Rousseff is likely to witness major opposition to
her rule and increasing calls for her resignation as the coun-
try struggles financially. The fallout from the Petrobras cor-
ruption allegations also remains a key issue of discontent, as
do ongoing austerity measures. In Mexico, a number of left
-wing parties and activists will continue to oppose the open-
ing of the oil sector, and protests against energy reforms
are expected for the remainder of the year. Furthermore,
President Enrique Peña Nieto’s diminishing approval ratings
amid a series of corruption scandals, poor economic per-
formance and a decline in security will continue to reduce
public trust in many government-led initiatives. In Ecuador,
President Rafael Correa is expected to face further large-
scale protests against his proposal to lift presidential term
limits, as well as against controversial tax policies targeting
the use of natural resources.
Rebels and gangs continue to cause instability
Guerrilla groups will continue to pose a threat to stability in
Q4, although this is expected to decline in Colombia as
long as rebel group FARC upholds the latest unilateral
ceasefire. Although the pace of the current peace negotia-
tions with the government has been slow, President Juan
Manuel Santos remains a strong supporter, pledging to
reach a deal by the end of 2015. Meanwhile, other rebel
groups are likely to launch attacks to demand similar negoti-
ations, particularly the ELN. In Peru, recent official
acknowledgement that the Maoist rebel group Shining Path
is still active is expected to trigger an increase in military
operations against the group, which is likely to launch retali-
atory attacks against government targets. The security envi-
ronment in El Salvador is also expected to deteriorate, as
street gangs continue to fight both each other and the gov-
ernment over the control of territory and illicit commercial
activities. The government is unlikely to negotiate with gang
leaders and further unrest is therefore expected.
Americas
Eastern Pacific Ocean: El Niño weather phenomenon
is predicted to be one of the most devastating in history,
expected to cause severe flooding in South America’s
Pacific coasts by the end of the year.
Puerto Rico: The territory’s severe debt
crisis is expected to lead to unpopular budg-
et cuts and further financial chaos is likely
Colombia / Vene-
zuela: Diplomatic
tensions regarding
Venezuela’s closure
of the Colombian
border to tackle
crime, a move that
has forced thou-
sands of Colombian
migrants to leave
the country, will
remain high in Q4.
10. Issue date: October 2015 Page 9
Islamist-related terrorist threat continues
Islamist-related terrorism threats are expected to manifest
in further attacks in Western Europe, particularly in Spain,
France, the UK, Germany or Scandinavia. Security
agencies in the region continue to emphasise the threat
posed by individuals returning from Syria who could poten-
tially carry out ”lone wolf” attacks. The threat is expected
to develop more rapidly in Scandinavia due to the changing
demographics and concerns over domestic Islamist radicali-
sation. Authorities across Europe will continue to make
detentions in relation to Islamic State (IS) and other Islamist
groups. In addition, governments are expected to imple-
ment travel bans and order passport confiscations as part of
heightened efforts to prevent individuals from travelling to
the Middle East.
Elections to underline political tensions
Political challenges are expected to develop in the coming
months, with Greece, Poland, Spain and Portugal all
holding key elections. Populist, anti-establishment parties
have seen their support swell in the last year, with the
countries’ leftist parties seeking to capitalise on the prevail-
ing anti-austerity climate. In Spain, Podemos and Ciuda-
danos are tipped to increase their popularity on an anti-
austerity platform ahead of the general election in Decem-
ber. These parties are opposed to coalitions with the ruling
Peoples’ Party (PP), which is likely to put the PP under pres-
sure, even if it wins, likely altering Spain’s political dynamic.
Anti-austerity, populist and nationalist parties such as Gold-
en Dawn in Greece and the Law and Justice Party in Po-
land, which is expected to do well in October elections,
will continue to attract support in Q4 as part of public op-
position to austerity, Islamist terrorism and the migrant
crisis.
Migrant crisis set to continue
The ongoing migrant crisis in Europe is expected to contin-
ue. Disruption to Channel Tunnel services has seen the UK
and France implement further physical security measures,
but the likelihood of displacement remains as migrants
move to other ports in northern France, Belgium and the
Netherlands in order to make the crossing, leading to
further localised delays. In Eastern Europe, countries includ-
ing Hungary and Macedonia are taking firm measures to
prevent migrants entering from Serbia and Greece, re-
spectively. Hungary’s border fence with Serbia has failed to
stem the flow of people, and it is highly likely that refugee
and migrant numbers will continue to rise, putting pressure
on domestic services, as well as increasing political tensions
within the EU. Macedonia has undertaken stronger
measures including deploying riot police and similar actions
are likely elsewhere in the months ahead. Greece and Italy
are struggling to deal with the influx of people, with public
services, housing, infrastructure and other primary com-
modities being stretched. Localised tensions are expected
to escalate in countries where migrant numbers continue to
rise, leading to unrest involving local nationals and illegal
immigrants.
Europe
GERMANY/UK/FRANCE: Potential
for reprisal attacks against the Muslim
community, including arson and targeting
of places of worship
11. Issue date: October 2015 Page 10
Finances continue to suffer across region
Finances across the region will be hurt further by the falling
global price of oil and the effects of the decline in the Chi-
nese yuan. The shrinking economy in Russia this year is
forcing cuts to spending and a pullback from the conflict in
eastern Ukraine for fear of an escalation of the EU sanc-
tions that are due for renewal in January 2016. State firms
such as Rosneft and Gazprom face a poor outlook, not least
from the poor terms that Gazprom has negotiated with
China in seeking an alternative to Western European mar-
kets. Like other countries in the region, Georgia is preoc-
cupied with a currency crisis, while Kazakhstan aims to
boost the competitiveness of its export-focused economy.
Currency devaluations may cause protests as food prices
soar and local buying power declines. A fall in remittances
from Central Asian migrants may force some of them to
return, with implications for domestic security.
Public frustration threatens elites
Adverse economic conditions are threatening political elites
throughout the region. The upcoming presidential election
in Belarus on 11 October is near-guaranteed to be won by
the incumbent, President Alexander Lukashenko, but this
may trigger mass demonstrations against the repressive
political system. Similarly in Moldova, public anger is grow-
ing at the political elite for their role in a web of dubious
financial transactions that brought three leading banks to
the brink of collapse, prompting an unpopular state bailout
worth eight percent of GDP.
Ukraine crisis enters holding pattern
The limits to Russia’s direction over the separatists in
Ukraine are becoming evident in sporadic violations of the
Minsk ceasefire agreement and Moscow’s strategic doubt
over how to proceed. Kremlin pressure aims to undermine
Ukraine’s government, with Moscow resisting pressure to
cut support for the rebels and relinquish control over the
shared border. The goal of “Novorossiya” – a historic term
denoting a region north of the Black Sea, including Crimea
and the Donbas - is highly unattainable and even a push to
Mariupol seems impossible, as the risk of enhanced sanc-
tions could further wreck the economy. However, any
climbdown would infuriate the nationalists, who comprise
Putin’s support base, bringing infighting in the Kremlin fur-
ther into the open.
Russia & CIS
BELARUS: Approaching presidential election
likely to set off mass protests
BALTICS: Continuing risk of crisis from
Russian subversion and propaganda
TAJIKISTAN: Growing concerns over IS presence
and recruitment; although renegade general likely
mis-characterised as IS militant in a bid to conceal
internal security rifts
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Source: Global Intelligence System (GIS)
Issue date: October 2015 Page 14
