Our coverage of Latin America includes an update on Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff’s political authority is threatened by an ever-widening corruption scandal that has turned some of her key allies into hostile enemies, complicating an already diffi cult task of balancing the competing imperatives of reviving a stagnating economy and retaining the confi dence of foreign investors.

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AUGUST COMING SOON
Our coverage of Latin America includes an update on Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff’s political authority
is threatened by an ever-widening corruption scandal that has turned some of her key allies into hostile enemies,
complicating an already difficult task of balancing the competing imperatives of reviving a stagnating economy and
retaining the confidence of foreign investors. PRS will look at the underlying sources of the president’s political woes,
which have contributed to a plunge in her approval rating
to low single digits, assess her chances of preventing
the collapse of her congressional coalition, and discuss
the implications for economic stability, the investment
climate more generally, and her own political survival if
she proves unable to do so.
PRS will also issue a fully revised report on Mexico that
will focus on the outlook for political stability and reform
implementation following the narrow victory of President
Enrique Peña Nieto’s PRI at mid-term congressional
elections held in June. With much of the heavy legislative
lifting having already been accomplished in the first
half of his term, Peña Nieto will focus on ensuring
smooth implementation of reforms seen as crucial to long-term fiscal stability, the most important being the opening of
the hydrocarbons sector to foreign investment. The report will analyze the impact of low oil prices on near-term budget
performance and the prospects for attracting investment, and assess the potential for political and administrative obstacles to
slow progress during the implementation phase. The report will also examine the government’s security policies, and judge
the likelihood of substantive progress in reducing the threat of deadly violence that casts a pall over the business climate.
PRS’ coverage of the risks in Western Europe includes an examination of the prospects for Italy, in light of a recent debt
agreement that will bring short-term relief for Greece, but has implications for Rome’s austerity and reform programs.
Italy’s anti-euro movement might be somewhat diminished by the Greek bailout package, but regional elections in May
provided a discomforting reminder of the political pitfalls ahead for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who has to date navigated
political obstacles with aplomb, but may still have to endure Greek tail-risks. We will assess the Renzi government’s chances
of survival in a country where early elections are the norm, focusing on the prime minister’s ability to coalesce leftist and
centrist elements within his own Democratic Party. Our report also analyzes the implications of recent and prospective
economic reforms, while taking a check on the political temperature as public protests figure to ratchet up in late summer,
as the government prioritizes fiscal consolidation against a backdrop of weak growth and high unemployment.
We will also take a detailed look into the political risks in Austria, where the strong performance of the far-right Freedom
Party in recent state-level elections and the party’s rise in the polls highlights public resentment over immigration. Our

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Quantitative Risk Global Expertise Independent
Founded in 1979, the PRS Group is among the earliest commercial providers of political and country risk forecasts. Origi-
nally the Political Risk Services division of Frost & Sullivan, Inc. and then of UK-based IBC Group (now known as In-
forma), the firm occupies a niche market in the risk sector through the application of two globally recognized, proprietary,
quant-driven, and back-tested methodologies: Political Risk Services (PRS) and the International Country Risk Guide
(ICRG). A number of products based on these two risk rating systems are produced at regular intervals throughout the year.
The firm and its methodologies for assessing risk are the product of research conducted by Professors William Coplin and
Michael O’Leary of the Maxwell School of Public Affairs at Syracuse University in conjunction with the US Department
of State and the CIA. The overall goal was to develop an intellectually rigorous way of assessing the various components of
country risk that could be applied to a range of institutional settings. In the wake of the Iranian Revolution, where many
foreign firms were nationalized, the importance of the work intensified.
Our publications and data are used extensively worldwide by investors and businesses, colleges and universities, private
equity groups, and all of the main multilateral institutions.
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CEO & Owner
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report will discuss the implications for political stability in the period leading up to the next federal elections that fall
due in 2018, and assess the extent to which the possible inclusion of the FPO in government might influence the policy
direction. Our report meanwhile looks at the shorter-term ramifications of the effort to resolve the debt incurred by
the failed lender Hypo Alpe Adria bank, including how it will affect bondholders, internal Austrian inter-governmental
operations, and relations with Germany. The analysis rounds out with a review of recent economic performance and
forecasts for key macro-indicators, including growth and inflation rates, and the fiscal outlook.
Turning to the Middle East and North Africa, coverage will feature an update on Iran that examines the political,
diplomatic, and economic implications of the nuclear agreement recently concluded with the so-called P5+1 (the five
permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany). Key elements of the analysis will include an assessment
of the likelihood that the agreement will achieve the required legislative approval from each of the signatories, the impact
of the deal on Iran’s relations with regional neighbors (in particular, Israel and Saudi Arabia), and the implications of the
anticipated lifting of international sanctions for foreign investment in Iran.
In sub-Saharan Africa, we cast the spotlight this month on Gabon, where political risks are rising with the approach
of presidential and legislative elections in 2016. Our report looks at recent clashes involving the security forces and
government opponents who suspect that the government had a hand in the recent death of Andre Mba Obame, a former
presidential candidate and the arch-rival of President Ali Bongo Odimba. The president, whose father ruled Gabon for
more than four decades, has tightened his grip on power since winning a disputed election in 2009, and the prospect
of the indefinite extension of the Bongo dynasty is expected to add heat to political battles over the coming months.
Against that backdrop, PRS will look at how the government is responding to the negative fallout from a steep fall in oil
prices that has delivered a heavy blow to the economy, focusing specifically on fiscal and external account sustainability.
We also assess what a series of strikes that have intermittently paralyzed key economic sectors portends in terms of the
hospitability of the investment climate.