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TerrorismSouth Asian Scenario
South Asia: An Introduction   The region is located at the    strategically important area in    world.   SA comprises o...
    It has a history of protracted dispute, conflict and    regional wars. It has close proximity to another    nuclear p...
Geostrategic Importance of South Asia South Asia is a most complex, volatile and  politically explosive region, the most ...
   Prime destination for finance capital, a lucrative market    for trade and a source of cheap raw material.   Sits at ...
Geostrategic Importance of South Asia   Indo-US strategic    partnership   Concept of “Chindia”   Emergence of India as...
   South Asia in the frontline of the energy    resource regions (Central Asia, Persian Gulf).   Demographic pattern-cur...
Terrorism and South Asia   Global terrorism center of    gravity shifts to South Asia.   South Asia now epicenter of    ...
Common Factors   Terrorism is caused by poverty and exploitation   Terrorist enemies are at once civil and military, sta...
   Terrorists identified themselves with    ‘the cellular world of global terror    rather than the isolating world of   ...
Geography of Terror Incidents
Areas of Concern The Diaspora Connection Self-Radicalization Tactical Devolution Pakistan Afghanistan South Asia Eme...
 Female  radicalization Migrant worker  connection Confused/Dual  identity
Trends in terrorism   Terrorism and insurgency   Internationalism   Suicide terrorism   Speed of learning   Media dev...
Strategic Trends   Al – Qaeda in a strategic Cul de Sac yet posing a    credible threat to global security.   An incompl...
Changes in Tactics   Bomb Blasts Increasingly    Being Replaced by    Operations involving Small    Arms e.g. Mumbai CST ...
Terrorist Tactics, based on 25,303 terrorist events, 1968-2004                          % of all events          % of all ...
Changes in Tactics Small groups and sleeper cells increasingly  gaining prominence. The lone wolf making a comeback? De...
The Emerging Threat Scenarios   The looming threat to critical infrastructure:    Rawalpindi water supply   The threat f...
The Emerging Threat Scenarios   The deepening threat of radicalisation across    societies.   The increasing threat from...
Who are the Terrorists?   Al-Qaeda      Militant, international Islamic organization focused on      removing all western...
Who are the Terrorists?   Taliban      Violent fundamentalist group from      Afghanistan; focused on implementing      S...
Who are the Terrorists?   Separatist Movements       Punjab (Sikh), Kashmir, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura,       Arunachal P...
Why does this matter to us?   Terrorism threatens the stability of    the region; big consequences if    these countries ...
International Front for Jihad againstthe Jews and CrusadersThe ruling to kill the Americans andtheir allies civilians and ...
Key Drivers of Radicalisation, according to         Global Futures Forum   • Mass communication and propaganda   • Western...
•   Religion (and its relationship to politics)•   Government responsiveness (civil society)•   Immigration and demographi...
Radicalization: A strategic challenge   Terrorism is a tactic, it does not operate in a    vacuum.   The continuum start...
Countering Radicalisation The  importance of the theologian. Fighting ideology with ideology. Countering the religious ...
The situation of Afghanistan( Background)   After the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, as a result of    military operatio...
 peace  dividends have not reached every  corner of the country and some people  support the insurgents for economic and ...
33
Challenges in Afghanistan   Crushing OBL and al-Qaeda, and hard-core    Taliban seems imperative for US security;    stab...
Afghanistan: anti-government forces:Taliban      Pakistan origin during anti-Soviet war      US and Pakistani intelligen...
Afghanistan: anti-government forces: Militia    leaders/“warlords”  Regional/clan/tribal-based patron-client relationship...
Afghanistan: anti-government forces: AlQaeda   Saudi- Egyptian-originated Sunni Salafi international    militia group   ...
Terrorist Incidents in Afghanistan in 2005and 2006 according to US National CounterTerrorism Centre                       ...
Current challenges   To reverse the    momentum on the    ground in Afghanistan.   The safe haven that the    Taliban an...
 Afghanistan: The new regional political play  ground (e.g. entry of India) Drug-terror nexus: drug trafficking source o...
Pakistan- The Core Issue   Pakistan is under    international pressure linked    to the influx of Afghan    refugee   Pa...
   Politics of terror   Regional politics and Indo –Pak rivalry   Foreign fighters and Taliban   International linkage...
Ground Realities of Pakistan Renewed strategic partnership with US and frontline role in the  global war against terroris...
Pakistan’s response   A bold and courageous operation    in FATA by Pakistan Army.   Close cooperation with ISAF    (Int...
Terrorism and PakistanIslamabad Marriott Bombing: September              20, 2008
Marriott Hotel BombingPERPETRATORS: No group claimed of  responsibility for the  attack, although  most link the attack  ...
 No  indication that Marriott received any  warning of attack. In addition, senior al-Qaeda leader  Mustafa Abu al-Yazid...
Lahore Incident
Apprehension about the security of Pakistan’snuclear assets and threat of terrorism  Terrorists’  acquisition of nuclear ...
Strategy needed in Pakistan Revitalizingexisting multilateral mechanism, regimes and treaties for their contribution to p...
The Afghanistan-Pakistan complex   Now a two-country war: Afghanistan, spilling over    into Pakistan   The principal so...
   Afghanistan and Pakistan both ethnically mixed   Structure/border legacies of colonial formation as nation-states   ...
Overview: Terrorism in India Nation  building process marked by  religious fundamentalism, ethnic tensions  and economic ...
54
Trends in terrorism in India Homegrown terrorists  mixed with foreign connections Lots of the groups rally around  Kashm...
Major conflicts and terrorist groupsoperating in India   State: Jammu & Kashmir    Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Pure)    ...
 North East India State: Assam ULFA: United Liberation Front of Asam  NDFB: National Democratic Front of  Boroland  UPD...
   State: Nagaland   NSCN-IM: National Socialist Council of Nagalim- Isak-    Muivah    NSCM-K: National Socialist Counc...
 State: Tripura NLFT: National Liberation Front of  ATTF: All Tripura Tiger Force State: Meghalaya HNLC: Hynniewtrep N...
   Left Wing Extremism   State: Bihar   People’s War Group [Communist Party of India, Marxist-    Lennist (People’s War...
   State: Orissa   People’s War Group [Communist Party of India, Marxist-    Lennist (People’s War)]   State: Chattisga...
62
States           Civilian   SF        Naxal   TotalAndhra Pradesh                    6        0          7      13Bihar   ...
Current situation   Naxalites do not belong to any religion or community. They    are mainly Dalits, Adivasis or other ma...
New forms of Terrorism in India   Cyber-terrorism.   RDDs (Radiological dispersal devices).   Threats to India’s nuclea...
Source: South Asian Terrorism Portal                                       66
The Mumbai Attack   On November 26th-29th    2008, Mumbai, India’s    greatest commercial capital,    came under siege by...
 Presently, the terrorists are suspected to have  originated from Pakistan    Terrorist organization: Lashkar-e-Taiba    ...
Possible Future Scenarios   Maoist will expand   Possibility of Maoist    groups to link up with the    other terrorist ...
 The possibilities are that the Situation would  be roughly the same as today. Maoist threat may assume gigantic proport...
Steps required for India   Strengthening of intelligence machinery at the Centre    and in States   Need for greater foc...
Sri Lanka after the Liberation Tigers ofTamil (LTTE)   The Liberation Tigers of    Tamil Eelam (LTTE), has    been compre...
   The top leadership of the LTTE, including its chief    Vellupillai Prabhakaran, intelligence chief Pottu    Amman and ...
Significant focus of LTTE LTTE    had biggest money machine Controlled a territory which became  a state within a state...
 Gender dimension of  terrorism Child soldier in terrorism Media and terrorism                               75
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Post war challenges Economic destruction which is to be  reconstructed Emotional trauma Ruined hopes and shattered drea...
Apprehension about future   Little possibility of a immediate resurgence of    terrorist violence in the foreseeable futu...
 LTTE’s   financial empire exists which  have not been dismantled Tamil Diaspora Incomplete political reconciliation I...
Glimpses of Bangladesh                         Muslim Majority South                              Asian State
Originally People with ModerateMindset & Homogenous Population
Nature of Terrorist threats inBangladesh   Religious militancy (Islamic    extremism).   Violent radicalization   Lefti...
Existing militant/ terrorist groups inBangladesh   29 listed Islamic organizations for    suspected involvement in milita...
The other listed militant/terrorist            outfits are    Hizb-ut Towhid            Biswa Islami FrontAllahr Dal, Isla...
The other listed militant/ terrorist outfits are       Jamaat-as-Sadat         Joysh-e Mohammad       al Khidmat          ...
Transnational Linkages   HUJI’s suspected    international    connections.   Case of Fazlur Rahman.   Hizbut Tahrir.   ...
The Nexus between Terrorism andTransnational Crime   Terrorists engage in organized crime activity to    support themselv...
  Both organized criminals and terrorists  corrupt local officials to achieve their  objectives Organized crime groups a...
Terrorist group (al-Qaeda )to Reconfigure Itself            Late-1990s:                                 Now:         Monol...
Based on Changes, We Postulate Four   al-Qaeda Trends for the Future                  Now:                                ...
Timeline of Post 9/11 Major Attacks   Oct 2001: Kashmir, India assembly attacked by militants.   Dec 2001: militants att...
   Jul 2006 – Mumbai trains; 209 dead, 700+    injured   Feb. 2007 – Delhi Express; 68 dead, 50 injured   Oct. 2007 – K...
Challenges in the next five years Decentralization of Threat New Threat Configuration Dominance of Al Qaeda Globalizat...
 Riseof Homegrown Terrorism Threat Migration Threat Escalation Threat Diversification
   The geography and demography of terrorism will change.   The Middle Eastern and Asian groups will dominate the intern...
The Way Ahead Need to address radicalization and extremism  at a national and international level. The need to fashion a...
   Counter terrorism is not a the task of the governments    alone.   Need to engage the youth.   The role of the theol...
Counter Terrorism in South Asia    SAARC has adopted several    conventions.      SAARC Regional Convention        on Sup...
What specific measures can SAARC take Sharing intelligence/  information Enact a consolidated strategy  to counter the f...
What specific measures can SAARC take   Regional law enforcement    coordination.   Regional capacity building    traini...
What specific measures can South Asia take    Regional Counter Terrorism     framework.    Coordination among regional  ...
Lessons for This Region   Understanding and acknowledging the need and    acuteness of the problem   Taking lessons from...
   The Ideological Battle and the Centrality of the    Religious Debate   Arresting a Terrorist is Only Half the Job, Re...
   The religious clerics as an important component –    The important role to be played by Islamic    Foundation   Count...
 Addressing the root and not just the tactic Problem of terrorism often linked to  governance deficit Identity and inte...
Law Enforcement Response & Policy   There are a number of ways a democracy can respond to   terrorism, ranging from making...
Factors Facilitating Future Terrorism,         according to Brynar Lia (2005)•   Resilience and longevity of the internati...
Future Trends and Contingencies   Interminable insurgency in Afghanistan and Pashtun    tribal areas in Pakistan (quagmir...
   Militant Islam continues to spread and gain    power   Advanced communication technologies are    changing the way te...
What to do Strengthen institutional capacity for crisis  management and consequence  management. For regional stability ...
Question and  Answer
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Terrorism South Asia
Terrorism South Asia
Terrorism South Asia
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Terrorism South Asia

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Terrorism South Asia

  1. 1. TerrorismSouth Asian Scenario
  2. 2. South Asia: An Introduction The region is located at the strategically important area in world. SA comprises of the sub- Himalayan countries and is surrounded (clockwise, from west to east) by Western Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Asia, and Southeastern Asia. It is home to over 1.50 billion people . It is the home of two new nuclear weapon states 3
  3. 3.  It has a history of protracted dispute, conflict and regional wars. It has close proximity to another nuclear power (China). It has one of the fastest growing power and economy (India). South Asia is one of the poorest and most misgoverned regions of the world after sub-Saharan Africa. Enormous Diversity within South Asia . 1. Demography, Economy, Governance, Human Development, 2. Social Development and Poverty Incidence
  4. 4. Geostrategic Importance of South Asia South Asia is a most complex, volatile and politically explosive region, the most enigmatic and baffling in the world Lies between the sea routes of the Indian Ocean (Persian Gulf and the Asia-Pacific) and the land routes of Central Asia connecting Europe to the East Large reservoir of natural and human resources
  5. 5.  Prime destination for finance capital, a lucrative market for trade and a source of cheap raw material. Sits at the confluence of the richest sources of oil, gas. The transit point for most of the resources and manufactures that crisscross the world. Was the base for infamous “Great Game” in the 19th century. United States Base at Diego Garcia, just south of Maldives.
  6. 6. Geostrategic Importance of South Asia Indo-US strategic partnership Concept of “Chindia” Emergence of India as Regional Power with global pretensions Nuclearization of South Asia Potentiality of Nuclear/Conventional Conflicts
  7. 7.  South Asia in the frontline of the energy resource regions (Central Asia, Persian Gulf). Demographic pattern-currently comprising one fourth of the world’s population. Two Nuclear club members are in South Asia. Geographical contiguity with would be super power, China “Indian Ocean Rim”
  8. 8. Terrorism and South Asia Global terrorism center of gravity shifts to South Asia. South Asia now epicenter of terrorism. “The arc of instability”. Islamist militancy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Maoist insurgency in India and Nepal. The “Red Corridor”. FATA. Hindu radicalism. LTTE in Sri Lanka. Mumbai attack November 2008
  9. 9. Common Factors Terrorism is caused by poverty and exploitation Terrorist enemies are at once civil and military, state and non-state, territorial and non-territorial’ (Beck, The Cosmopolitan Vision (Polity) 2006: 152) Regional tensions and non-resolution of core disputes Hegemonic policies Threatening sovereignty of smaller countries Growth of nuclear arsenal and induction of new weapons.
  10. 10.  Terrorists identified themselves with ‘the cellular world of global terror rather than the isolating world of national minorities’ Terrorists morphed ‘from one kind of minority – weak, disempowered, disenfranchised and angry – to another kind of minority – cellular, globalized, transnational, armed, and dangerous’ Appadurai, A (2006: 113) Fear of Small Numbers: An Essay on the Geography of Anger (Duke University Press)
  11. 11. Geography of Terror Incidents
  12. 12. Areas of Concern The Diaspora Connection Self-Radicalization Tactical Devolution Pakistan Afghanistan South Asia Emergingas the Global Epicenter ofTerrorism
  13. 13.  Female radicalization Migrant worker connection Confused/Dual identity
  14. 14. Trends in terrorism Terrorism and insurgency Internationalism Suicide terrorism Speed of learning Media developments Economic targeting Mass casualty attacks and weapons of mass destruction
  15. 15. Strategic Trends Al – Qaeda in a strategic Cul de Sac yet posing a credible threat to global security. An incomplete ideological battle compounding the problem. Lack of effective trans-national cooperation creating an advantageous situation for the terrorist organizations. The deepening problem in the global south: need to address core issues. Preferred asymmetric tool.
  16. 16. Changes in Tactics Bomb Blasts Increasingly Being Replaced by Operations involving Small Arms e.g. Mumbai CST Attack 26/11/2009 New Innovations in Training and Organization Rotating leadership Organizational identity change
  17. 17. Terrorist Tactics, based on 25,303 terrorist events, 1968-2004 % of all events % of all casualties Bombs 53.4 70.1 Guns 19.9 23.0 Arson 9.8 2.7 Remote control bombs 1.9 4.7 Knives & other blades 1.3 2.1 Chemical 0.2 0.59 Biological 0.08 0.02 Other 13.3 8.1 Total 100.0 100.0Source: Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide Terrorism:1968-2004. Risk Analysis Vol. 26, No.1, 2006.
  18. 18. Changes in Tactics Small groups and sleeper cells increasingly gaining prominence. The lone wolf making a comeback? Decentralised organisational structure – The case of JMB New innovations in training: The use of Char areas for training An evolving crime – Terror nexus
  19. 19. The Emerging Threat Scenarios The looming threat to critical infrastructure: Rawalpindi water supply The threat from internet radicalisation Fighting the flow of money: The challenge from terrorist financing JMB financing – bona fide investments The question of nuclear security Terrorist or insurgent – where to draw the line?? Possibility of WMD terrorism
  20. 20. The Emerging Threat Scenarios The deepening threat of radicalisation across societies. The increasing threat from extremist groups in the context of South Asia e.g. Hizbut Tahrir. The problem of integration in an increasingly globalising world. The rise of the radical elements across different societies: The mainstream becoming smaller??
  21. 21. Who are the Terrorists? Al-Qaeda Militant, international Islamic organization focused on removing all western influence from Muslim countries and fighting a global “Jihad”
  22. 22. Who are the Terrorists? Taliban Violent fundamentalist group from Afghanistan; focused on implementing Sharia law in Afghanistan and Pakistan
  23. 23. Who are the Terrorists? Separatist Movements Punjab (Sikh), Kashmir, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland; all have tried to gain autonomy at one point.
  24. 24. Why does this matter to us? Terrorism threatens the stability of the region; big consequences if these countries fall. India and Pakistan are both nuclear nations; weapons could fall into terrorist hands. Many of these organizations are international (e.g. Al-Qaeda) Operation Enduring Freedom – US led military action in Afghanistan 25
  25. 25. International Front for Jihad againstthe Jews and CrusadersThe ruling to kill the Americans andtheir allies civilians and military is anindividual duty for every Muslim whocan do it in any country in which it ispossible to do it. ” Fatwa issued by Osama bin Laden & Ayman al-Zawahiri
  26. 26. Key Drivers of Radicalisation, according to Global Futures Forum • Mass communication and propaganda • Western responses to radicalisation • Governance in target countries • Western dominance (both real and perceived) • State-to-state tensionsGlobal Futures Forum. Radical Worlds of 2020.Imagining the Futures of Radicalisation.The Hague, 12-14 December 2007
  27. 27. • Religion (and its relationship to politics)• Government responsiveness (civil society)• Immigration and demographics• “Us- vs. -Them” identity politics• New ideologies• Resources (scarcities, conflicts over ~)• Violence (associated with extremism) 28
  28. 28. Radicalization: A strategic challenge Terrorism is a tactic, it does not operate in a vacuum. The continuum starts with radicalization Myriad reasons not one single factor A growing problem across the South Asian region. The Afghan jihad The role of the media in countering radicalization
  29. 29. Countering Radicalisation The importance of the theologian. Fighting ideology with ideology. Countering the religious arguments. Understanding the importance and the centrality of the religious debate. The incorporation of the religious clerics into the sphere of counter terrorism in various countries.
  30. 30. The situation of Afghanistan( Background) After the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, as a result of military operations by the US-led multinational forces. Al Qaeda and leaders of Taliban fled to the border regions and into Pakistan. In Afghanistan, security operations by ISAF established by a UN Security Council resolution have been successful to a certain extent and the international community has been supporting nation- building.
  31. 31.  peace dividends have not reached every corner of the country and some people support the insurgents for economic and other causes. With increased power of the Taliban forces, the security situation has deteriorated in recent years without considerable improvement of people’s living standards.
  32. 32. 33
  33. 33. Challenges in Afghanistan Crushing OBL and al-Qaeda, and hard-core Taliban seems imperative for US security; stabilizing Afghanistan, growing its own security forces and building out its government capacity are critical to those goals. Revised COIN strategy is good in theory, Piraeus is real leader, US combat forces are superb, but how much will it take, can Afghanistan unite, and will US public stay the course? Pakistan’s commitment and capacity to rebuilding Afghanistan and defeating the Taliban are huge question marks, as are Iran’s in a lesser way
  34. 34. Afghanistan: anti-government forces:Taliban  Pakistan origin during anti-Soviet war  US and Pakistani intelligence role in creation  Pakistani military interest in maintaining Afghan unrest  Ethnically- and class-inflected Sunni Islamism  Pashtun ethnic dominance  Regional variations  Not a single united body, or equivalent to pre-invasion government  Mullah Omar, leader (at least in south)  Overlaps with Taliban in Pakistan but not identical
  35. 35. Afghanistan: anti-government forces: Militia leaders/“warlords” Regional/clan/tribal-based patron-client relationships  Fusion of “feudal”/pre-modern relations and “modern” social and political relationships Haqqani Network  Jalauddin Haqqani  Claimed responsibility for Kabul bombing this week Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddun  Gulbuddin Hekmatyar  Former PM  Deeply opposed to foreign intervention “Warlords” on both sides Shifting loyalties and finances central to current presidential elections 36
  36. 36. Afghanistan: anti-government forces: AlQaeda Saudi- Egyptian-originated Sunni Salafi international militia group November 2001 invasion immediately destroyed training camps, displaced AQ activists to Pakistan, reduced AQ capacity, increased tensions with hosts key leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri still at large, presumably in Pakistan Core AQ international combat reach doubtful; limited Afghanistan combat role Effective “franchising” of AQ through loose international networks continues  Differentiation and development of loosely related networks  Mega-terrorism threat continues Taliban distancing themselves
  37. 37. Terrorist Incidents in Afghanistan in 2005and 2006 according to US National CounterTerrorism Centre 2005 2006Incidents of terrorism in 491 749AfghanistanSource: US National Counter Terrorism Centre as quoted in US Department ofState. Country Reports on Terrorism and Patterns of Global Terrorism.
  38. 38. Current challenges To reverse the momentum on the ground in Afghanistan. The safe haven that the Taliban and al-Qaeda and other jihadists have built in Pakistan has to be closed down
  39. 39.  Afghanistan: The new regional political play ground (e.g. entry of India) Drug-terror nexus: drug trafficking source of terrorist funding(e.g. opium trafficking in Afghanistan) Warlords Taliban by back Private militias
  40. 40. Pakistan- The Core Issue Pakistan is under international pressure linked to the influx of Afghan refugee Pakistan under complex challenge because of geographic location FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area) Decentralization of Taliban Growing radicalization
  41. 41.  Politics of terror Regional politics and Indo –Pak rivalry Foreign fighters and Taliban International linkages of terrorist groups Invisible foreign hands? Complex identity toned between Islamic and ethnic identity Complex relationship with the US and the west
  42. 42. Ground Realities of Pakistan Renewed strategic partnership with US and frontline role in the global war against terrorism elevate dangers to sensitive materials The geo-political environment and maintenance of strategic stability present other challenges “No one else’s bomb is called Hindu, Jewish, Christian, capitalist, or communist, yet somehow our bomb becomes “Islamic”, as if that makes it illegitimate. The idea is illogical and essentially racist. This is an example of how Muslims continually feel unjustly singled out and alienated” President Pervez Musharraf’’s Memoir, “In the Line of Fire”
  43. 43. Pakistan’s response A bold and courageous operation in FATA by Pakistan Army. Close cooperation with ISAF (International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan) A stated policy of Counter terrorism CBM efforts with India specially after Mumbai incident. Fighting the Afghan local refugee extremists
  44. 44. Terrorism and PakistanIslamabad Marriott Bombing: September 20, 2008
  45. 45. Marriott Hotel BombingPERPETRATORS: No group claimed of responsibility for the attack, although most link the attack to al-Qaeda or Pakistani Taliban. Pakistani Taliban denied involvement in the bombing.
  46. 46.  No indication that Marriott received any warning of attack. In addition, senior al-Qaeda leader Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, who claimed the June Danish Embassy bombing in Islamabad, threatened additional attacks against western interests in Pakistan in a video timed to the recent anniversary of the September 11 attacks.
  47. 47. Lahore Incident
  48. 48. Apprehension about the security of Pakistan’snuclear assets and threat of terrorism  Terrorists’ acquisition of nuclear weapons or sabotage thereof, dirty bombs, RDDs, and radiation hazards caused by sabotage/attack on a nuclear facility or a transport vehicle.
  49. 49. Strategy needed in Pakistan Revitalizingexisting multilateral mechanism, regimes and treaties for their contribution to prevent terrorist activities.
  50. 50. The Afghanistan-Pakistan complex Now a two-country war: Afghanistan, spilling over into Pakistan The principal source of the global crisis of Terrorism. 2009 was a year of escalating violence and widening disorder across the Af-Pak region. The ‘surge’ of US troops in Afghanistan in 2010 and the uncertain tactical gains in Marjah notwithstanding, there is little reason to believe that the troubling fundamentals of the region are going to experience any significant change.
  51. 51.  Afghanistan and Pakistan both ethnically mixed Structure/border legacies of colonial formation as nation-states key Pashtun ethnic group cross-border relations: hence “Pashtunistan”  Largest single group in Afghanistan; southern and eastern concentrations  Dominant in western border provinces of Pakistan Emerging US perception of a cross-border war against Pashtunistan: hence “Af-Pak War” What next in the post withdrawal period of US forces. Resurgent Taliban. It’s the time in Taliban framework.
  52. 52. Overview: Terrorism in India Nation building process marked by religious fundamentalism, ethnic tensions and economic disparities. Continuing militancy /insurgency in Kashmir and North –Eastern States. Rising Maoist/ Naxal influence across central India and linkages with Nepal.
  53. 53. 54
  54. 54. Trends in terrorism in India Homegrown terrorists mixed with foreign connections Lots of the groups rally around Kashmir issue The looming threat from Maoist terrorism The rise of Hindu fundamentalism. The regional nexus of terrorism
  55. 55. Major conflicts and terrorist groupsoperating in India State: Jammu & Kashmir Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Pure) Jaish-e-Mohammed (Army of the Prophet) Hizb-ul-Mujahiddeen (Party of Holy Warriors) Harkat-ul-Mujahiddeen (Movement of Holy Warriors) Al Badr (The Full Moon) Harkat-ul-Jehad Islami (Movement of the Islamic Jehad)
  56. 56.  North East India State: Assam ULFA: United Liberation Front of Asam NDFB: National Democratic Front of Boroland UPDF: United Peoples Democratic Front BLT: Bodo Liberation Tigers
  57. 57.  State: Nagaland NSCN-IM: National Socialist Council of Nagalim- Isak- Muivah NSCM-K: National Socialist Council of Nagalim- Khaplang State: Manipur UNLF: United National Liberation Front PLA: People’s Liberation Army PREPAK: People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak NSCN-IM: National Socialist Council of Nagalim- Isak- Muivah
  58. 58.  State: Tripura NLFT: National Liberation Front of ATTF: All Tripura Tiger Force State: Meghalaya HNLC: Hynniewtrep National liberation Council ANVC: Achik National Volunteer Council
  59. 59.  Left Wing Extremism State: Bihar People’s War Group [Communist Party of India, Marxist- Lennist (People’s War)] Maoist Communist Centre Ranvir Sena (Anti-Left Wing caste army of landlords) State: Jharkhand People’s War Group [Communist Party of India, Marxist- Lennist (People’s War)] Maoist Communist Centre
  60. 60.  State: Orissa People’s War Group [Communist Party of India, Marxist- Lennist (People’s War)] State: Chattisgarh People’s War Group [Communist Party of India, Marxist- Lennist (People’s War)] Maoist Communist Centre Andhra Pradesh People’s War Group (PWG) Communist Party of India – Marxist Lennist (Janasakhti) [Janasakhti: People’s Power]
  61. 61. 62
  62. 62. States Civilian SF Naxal TotalAndhra Pradesh 6 0 7 13Bihar 30 6 7 43Chhattisgarh 58 135 69 262Jharkhand 41 12 20 73Karnataka 0 0 1 1Maharashtra 6 2 2 10Orissa 29 18 13 60Uttar Pradesh 0 0 0 0West Bengal 243 33 40 316Total* 413 206 159 778 Fatalities in Left-wing Extremism - 2010 Statewise Fatalities 2010
  63. 63. Current situation Naxalites do not belong to any religion or community. They are mainly Dalits, Adivasis or other marginalized sections of society totally indoctrinated by the teachings of Mao and Marx. Links with Nepalese Maoists, ULFA, and LTTE for training and modern weapons. Maoist incidents account for over 60% of the violence: killings, kidnappings, extortion, abduction, IED blasts and destruction of property. Growth of Naxalite movement due the exploitation and oppression of Dalits, Adivasis and other landless people by feudal agrarian system with strong interface of caste and class.
  64. 64. New forms of Terrorism in India Cyber-terrorism. RDDs (Radiological dispersal devices). Threats to India’s nuclear installations. Threats to India’s maritime assets (offshore oil platforms, attractive commercial targets). Bio-terrorism. Nuclear terrorism??
  65. 65. Source: South Asian Terrorism Portal 66
  66. 66. The Mumbai Attack On November 26th-29th 2008, Mumbai, India’s greatest commercial capital, came under siege by ten terrorists. Ten coordinated attacks, each conducted in populous areas of Mumbai, killed at least 173 people and left 308 injured. The symbol of Lashkar-e- Taiba
  67. 67.  Presently, the terrorists are suspected to have originated from Pakistan Terrorist organization: Lashkar-e-Taiba Currently being denied by Pakistani officials Terrorists’ motives seem to be partly related to Kashmir Lashkar-e-Taiba operates several training camps in Kashmir, and regularly carries out offensives against Indian forces in Jammu and Kashmir.
  68. 68. Possible Future Scenarios Maoist will expand Possibility of Maoist groups to link up with the other terrorist groups The unrest of Kashmir might aggregate The homegrown terrorism will expand (e.g. Deccan Mujahideen)
  69. 69.  The possibilities are that the Situation would be roughly the same as today. Maoist threat may assume gigantic proportions and pose a grave threat to the security of Indian Union. Maoists might be marginalized and discredited.
  70. 70. Steps required for India Strengthening of intelligence machinery at the Centre and in States Need for greater focus on activities of terrorist outfits, naxals, criminal & communal elements Enhanced physical security and better access control systems through latest technology at vital installations, and public places such as airports, trains, railway stations, crowded markets and important religious places.
  71. 71. Sri Lanka after the Liberation Tigers ofTamil (LTTE) The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), has been comprehensively defeated. An end of a relentless 33- year long conflict, and 26 years of full scale civil war. On May 20, 2009, the Sri Lanka Army officially declared the end of Eelam War .
  72. 72.  The top leadership of the LTTE, including its chief Vellupillai Prabhakaran, intelligence chief Pottu Amman and Sea Tigers chief, Soosai, were dead Defeated remnants of the armed cadres surrendered or sought obscurity among the thousands of the Tamil displaced in refugee camps The Diaspora leadership squabbled over succession, eventually to publicly renounce the option of violence
  73. 73. Significant focus of LTTE LTTE had biggest money machine Controlled a territory which became a state within a state LTTE taught suicidal bombing Had three dimensional capacity LTTE and WMD?
  74. 74.  Gender dimension of terrorism Child soldier in terrorism Media and terrorism 75
  75. 75. 76
  76. 76. Post war challenges Economic destruction which is to be reconstructed Emotional trauma Ruined hopes and shattered dreams. Rehabilitate the Tamils. More than 2,50,000 internally displace persons, who are to be fed and attended to
  77. 77. Apprehension about future Little possibility of a immediate resurgence of terrorist violence in the foreseeable future but beyond short term cannot be ruled out. The enduring tragedy of Sri Lanka is that the opportunities of a hard won peace are quickly being frittered away in a blind, polarizing and fractious politics. They won the war but missing the peace Solution has to be political not military.
  78. 78.  LTTE’s financial empire exists which have not been dismantled Tamil Diaspora Incomplete political reconciliation Issues of human rights violation
  79. 79. Glimpses of Bangladesh Muslim Majority South Asian State
  80. 80. Originally People with ModerateMindset & Homogenous Population
  81. 81. Nature of Terrorist threats inBangladesh Religious militancy (Islamic extremism). Violent radicalization Leftist movement. Terrorism in the form of political violence. Ethnic insurgency (in the CHT). Maoist threats.
  82. 82. Existing militant/ terrorist groups inBangladesh 29 listed Islamic organizations for suspected involvement in militancy. Government so far banned four militant organizations:  JMB,  Huji-B,  Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB)  Shahadat-e al Hikma. Focus only on outlawed JMB and Huji-B. List includes Bangladesh chapter of international organization Hizbut- Tahrir Bangladesh.
  83. 83. The other listed militant/terrorist outfits are Hizb-ut Towhid Biswa Islami FrontAllahr Dal, Islami Samaj Jumaatul al Sadat Al Harat al Islamia Shahadat-e-Nobuat Jamaatul Faliya Jamaat-e Yahia al Turat Towhidi Janata Joyshe Mostafa Bangladesh Al Jihad Bangladesh Woarat Islamic Front Dawat-e Islam Tanjim
  84. 84. The other listed militant/ terrorist outfits are Jamaat-as-Sadat Joysh-e Mohammad al Khidmat Hijbul Mahadi Harkat-e-Islam al Kalemar Dawat Jihad Hijbullah Islami Islami Dawati Kafela Samaj Muslim Millat Shahria Council World Islamic Front al Islam Martyrs for Jihad Brigade Hizb e Abu Omar Jadid al-Qaeda Bangladesh
  85. 85. Transnational Linkages HUJI’s suspected international connections. Case of Fazlur Rahman. Hizbut Tahrir. The Growing International Linkages Revival of JMB International Terrorists search for a sanctuary.
  86. 86. The Nexus between Terrorism andTransnational Crime Terrorists engage in organized crime activity to support themselves financially Organized crime groups and terrorists often operate on network structures and these structures sometimes intersect, terrorists can hide themselves among transnational criminal organizations Both organized crime group and terrorists operate in areas with little governmental controls, weak enforcement of laws and open borders
  87. 87.  Both organized criminals and terrorists corrupt local officials to achieve their objectives Organized crime groups and terrorists often use similar means to communicate–exploiting modern technology Organized crime and terrorists launder their money, often using the same methods and often the same operators to move their funds
  88. 88. Terrorist group (al-Qaeda )to Reconfigure Itself Late-1990s: Now: Monolithic Structure “Movement of Movements” • Centrally controlled organization • Nebulous, segmented, and polycentric organization • Strategic assaults executed by inner core of jihadist activists • Tactically oriented strikes done by affiliated cells (individuals) and when opportunity arises
  89. 89. Based on Changes, We Postulate Four al-Qaeda Trends for the Future Now: Future Trends “Movement of Movements” 1. Continuing interest in hard targets but increased focus on soft, civilian-centric venues 2. Ongoing emphasis on economic attacks 3. Continued reliance on suicide strikes• Nebulous, segmented, and polycentric 4. Desire to use CBRN weapons organization but little ability to execute large-scale• Tactically oriented strikes done by conventional attacks affiliated cells (individuals) and when opportunity arises
  90. 90. Timeline of Post 9/11 Major Attacks Oct 2001: Kashmir, India assembly attacked by militants. Dec 2001: militants attacked Indian Parliament in New Delhi May 2002 – Karachi, Pakistan; 14 dead, 20+ injured Jun 2002: attack against the US Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan. Aug 2003: simultaneous bomb blasts in Mumbai, India. Dec 2003: two assassination attempts on President Musharraf in Pakistan Aug. 2005 – Bangladesh, 400 bombs in 30 min.; 2 dead, 138 injured.
  91. 91.  Jul 2006 – Mumbai trains; 209 dead, 700+ injured Feb. 2007 – Delhi Express; 68 dead, 50 injured Oct. 2007 – Karachi, Pakistan; 136 dead, 387 injured Dec. 2007 – Rawalpindi, Pakistan; 24 dead, 46 injured Sep. 2008 – Islamabad, Pakistan; 54 dead, 266 injured Dec. 2008 – Mumbai, India; 173 dead, 327 injured
  92. 92. Challenges in the next five years Decentralization of Threat New Threat Configuration Dominance of Al Qaeda Globalization of Threat Changing Profile Rise of Asian Terrorism
  93. 93.  Riseof Homegrown Terrorism Threat Migration Threat Escalation Threat Diversification
  94. 94.  The geography and demography of terrorism will change. The Middle Eastern and Asian groups will dominate the international landscape of terrorism. With the developments in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia, the specter of Asian terrorism will rise. Al Qaeda working together with TTP will provide training for both Muslims and Muslim groups on the Afghan Pakistan border. Global Jihad groups will co-opt local and tribal groups creating safe havens and sanctuaries from Tribal Pakistan. While Middle Eastern threat groups will continue to pose a threat, there will be a comparable threat stemming from Asian groups. The area of FATA will be critically watched.
  95. 95. The Way Ahead Need to address radicalization and extremism at a national and international level. The need to fashion an adequate strategy to fight the ideological battle. Understanding what makes a terrorist group tick – the importance of research.
  96. 96.  Counter terrorism is not a the task of the governments alone. Need to engage the youth. The role of the theologians. Media playing a more proactive role. Importance of building social resilience against terrorism. A carefully calibrated multi pronged counter terrorism strategy. High time for regional engagement.
  97. 97. Counter Terrorism in South Asia SAARC has adopted several conventions.  SAARC Regional Convention on Suppression of Terrorism (signed by all member states and came into force in 1988)  Additional Protocol to the SAARC Regional Convention on Suppression of Terrorism(2002) Bilateral CT agreements. National CT measures and regulations.
  98. 98. What specific measures can SAARC take Sharing intelligence/ information Enact a consolidated strategy to counter the financing of terrorism to ensure transparency in the transaction of money Build an effective regional terrorism cell Clear understanding of one country’s conflict situation and not to interfere in the conflict directly or indirectly.
  99. 99. What specific measures can SAARC take Regional law enforcement coordination. Regional capacity building training. Political Climate. Counter new/ emerging threats. Enact regional money laundering act
  100. 100. What specific measures can South Asia take  Regional Counter Terrorism framework.  Coordination among regional law enforcement agencies.  Regional capacity building training.  Political Climate.  Counter new/ emerging threats.  Enacting regional money laundering act.  National and regional Strategic Communication Plan.  Joint exercises.
  101. 101. Lessons for This Region Understanding and acknowledging the need and acuteness of the problem Taking lessons from the various experiences. Studying the existing criminal rehab models and adopting best practices. Understanding the terrorist motivations: what makes a terrorist? Adoption of best practice models of rehab and community engagement
  102. 102.  The Ideological Battle and the Centrality of the Religious Debate Arresting a Terrorist is Only Half the Job, Reforming the Individual is the More Crucial One No One Size Fits All Approach Operating within Resource Constraints The Importance of a Merger Between Law Enforcement and the Community Countering Radicalisation – Looking at the Bigger Picture
  103. 103.  The religious clerics as an important component – The important role to be played by Islamic Foundation Countering radicalisation needs to be a critical component of the National Counter Terrorism Strategy Opportunity for cooperation among states in terms of Counter Radicalisation and terrorist rehabilitation
  104. 104.  Addressing the root and not just the tactic Problem of terrorism often linked to governance deficit Identity and integration will be significant Think globally act locally Primary response is political and primarily non-kinetic
  105. 105. Law Enforcement Response & Policy There are a number of ways a democracy can respond to terrorism, ranging from making concessions to military intervention. Concessions are only likely when there is moral substance to the terrorist cause, or when such concessions are reasonable. Military intervention may be used when the terrorist threat is too big for civilian authorities to handle. The principle of international law obliges countries to either extradite terrorists to the country where their crimes were committed or to punish them themselves.
  106. 106. Factors Facilitating Future Terrorism, according to Brynar Lia (2005)• Resilience and longevity of the international jihadist networks• Unipolar exclusionist and interventionist world order• Weak transitional states• Non-state actors in global politics• Globalisation of organized crime• Middle East oil dependence• Migration and ethnic heterogenisation of Western societies• Growing information interconnectedness• Proliferation of deadly technologies• Out-of-area spill-over from ongoing armed conflicts
  107. 107. Future Trends and Contingencies Interminable insurgency in Afghanistan and Pashtun tribal areas in Pakistan (quagmire?) Nuclear terrorism threat – shouldn’t discount Engage local partners to limit Islamist radicals, extremism and terrorism (AFPAK) Nuclear terrorism rising probability (contingency plans)
  108. 108.  Militant Islam continues to spread and gain power Advanced communication technologies are changing the way terrorists work and live
  109. 109. What to do Strengthen institutional capacity for crisis management and consequence management. For regional stability India and Pakistan should evolve a strategic restraint regime covering both nuclear and conventional forces.
  110. 110. Question and Answer
  111. 111. Thank You

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