Uploaded byChris Sandström
Technology overshooting
This document discusses some limitations of using the technology S-curve to understand technological change and disruption. Specifically, it notes that the S-curve does not take into account market factors or how customer needs and values can change over time. As an example, it shows how compact cameras were displaced by mobile phone cameras not due to reaching scientific limits, but because increased portability became more important to customers than further improvements in image quality. This phenomenon of "technology overshooting" occurs when a technology is replaced before peak performance due to shifting customer priorities.
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Technology overshooting
- 1.
- 2. Christian Sandström holdsa PhD from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaks about disruptive innovation and technological change.
- 3. This presentation willdiscuss some of the limitations of the Technology S-curve.
- 4. First, let’s brieflyreview the concept of a technology S-curve. A more complete introduction can be found here.
- 6. Performance Time
- 7. Performance A technology’s performance evolves slowly in the beginning. Time
- 8. Performance A technology’s At some point, a performance breakthrough evolves slowly in happens and it now the beginning. improves rapidly. Time
- 9. Performance Limits of what is scientifically possible are reached and performance doesn’t increase much more. A technology’s At some point, a performance breakthrough evolves slowly in happens and it now the beginning. improves rapidly. Time
- 10. When one technologyis displaced by another technology, the pattern might look something like this:
- 11. Performance Time
- 12. Performance Time
- 13. The concept canthus be applied in order to compare technologies and understand when one technology will displace another one.
- 14. However, there aresome limitations, and the Technology S-curve can in fact be misleading.
- 15.
- 16. The graph belowsuggests that mobile phone cameras are increasingly used instead of DSLR cameras…
- 17. And perhaps evenmore evidently, mobile phone cameras are displacing compact cameras.
- 18. The Technology S-curvewould predict that a technology is more likely to be displaced when it has reached the limits of what is scientifically possible.
- 19. But compact camerashave not reached this limit – in fact they are becoming better and better all the time.
- 20. But compact camerashave not reached this limit – in fact they are becoming better and better all the time. Yet still they’re being replaced…
- 21. This simple exampleillustrates one of the greatest problems with the Technology S-curve:
- 22. This simple exampleillustrates one of the greatest problems with the Technology S-curve: it doesn’t take the market into consideration.
- 23. Another problem: It isone-dimensional, but technologies need to be compared across several dimensions.
- 24. Let’s try tomap compact cameras and mobile phones in a different way!
- 25. We’ll introduce another performancedimension along the X-axis.
- 26.
- 27. Performance 1 Performance 2
- 28. Image Quality Portability
- 29. We also tryto take the market into consideration somehow.
- 30. Image Quality Portability
- 31. Image Quality Image Quality customers need Portability
- 32. Image Quality Up here, image quality is not creating any additional customer value. Who needs another megapixel when you have 10 already? Image Quality customers need Portability
- 33. Now, let’s tryagain to compare mobile and compact cameras.
- 34. Image Quality Image Quality customers need Portability
- 35. Image Quality By 2005, compact cameras offered good image quality and were easy to bring along Image Quality customers need Portability
- 36. Image Quality By 2005, compact cameras offered good image quality and were easy to bring along Image Quality customers need Portability
- 37. Image Quality By 2005, compact cameras offered good image quality and were easy to bring along Image Quality customers need Mobile cameras offered lower image quality, but were more ’portable’ Portability
- 38. The image qualityof both products then improves over the following years.
- 39.
- 40. Image Quality Image Quality customers need Portability
- 41. Image Quality Image Quality customers need Portability
- 42. Image Quality Increased image quality does not result in additional customer value! Image Quality customers need Portability
- 43. Image Quality Increased image quality does not result in additional customer value! Image Quality customers need Portability
- 44. Image Quality Increased image quality does not result in additional customer value! Image Quality customers need Portability
- 45. Image Quality Increased image quality does not result in additional customer value! Image Quality customers need Mobile cameras still offer worse image quality, but it is good enough. Also, they are easier to bring along. At this point, compact cameras will be replaced, this started to happen in 2005-2006… Portability
- 46. The phenomenon iscalled ’Technology overshooting’, and refers to when technologies have not reached their peak of the S-curve, but are still replaced because customers do not value additional performance.
- 47.