This document discusses some limitations of using the technology S-curve to understand technological change and disruption. Specifically, it notes that the S-curve does not take into account market factors or how customer needs and values can change over time. As an example, it shows how compact cameras were displaced by mobile phone cameras not due to reaching scientific limits, but because increased portability became more important to customers than further improvements in image quality. This phenomenon of "technology overshooting" occurs when a technology is replaced before peak performance due to shifting customer priorities.

1. Technology
Overshooting

2. Christian Sandström holds a PhD from Chalmers
University of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaks
about disruptive innovation and technological change.

3. This presentation will discuss
some of the limitations of the
Technology S-curve.

4. First, let’s briefly review the
concept of a
technology S-curve.
A more complete
introduction can be found here.

6. Performance
Time

7. Performance
A technology’s
performance
evolves slowly in
the beginning.
Time

8. Performance
A technology’s
At some point, a
performance
breakthrough
evolves slowly in
happens and it now
the beginning.
improves rapidly.
Time

9. Performance Limits of what is scientifically possible
are reached and performance doesn’t
increase much more.
A technology’s
At some point, a
performance
breakthrough
evolves slowly in
happens and it now
the beginning.
improves rapidly.
Time

10. When one technology is
displaced by another
technology, the pattern might
look something like this:

11. Performance
Time

12. Performance
Time

13. The concept can thus be applied
in order to compare
technologies and understand
when one technology will
displace another one.

14. However, there are some
limitations, and the Technology
S-curve can in fact be
misleading.

15. Consider the
following example:

16. The graph below suggests that
mobile phone cameras are
increasingly used instead of
DSLR cameras…

17. And perhaps even more
evidently, mobile phone
cameras are displacing
compact cameras.

18. The Technology S-curve would
predict that a technology is
more likely to be displaced
when it has reached the limits
of what is scientifically possible.

19. But compact cameras have not
reached this limit – in fact they
are becoming better and better
all the time.

20. But compact cameras have not
reached this limit – in fact they
are becoming better and better
all the time.
Yet still they’re being replaced…

21. This simple example illustrates
one of the greatest problems
with the Technology S-curve:

22. This simple example illustrates
one of the greatest problems
with the Technology S-curve:
it doesn’t take the market into
consideration.

23. Another problem:
It is one-dimensional, but
technologies need to be
compared across several
dimensions.

24. Let’s try to map compact
cameras and mobile phones in a
different way!

25. We’ll introduce another
performance dimension along
the X-axis.

26. Performance 1

27. Performance 1
Performance 2

28. Image Quality
Portability

29. We also try to take the market
into consideration somehow.

30. Image Quality
Portability

31. Image Quality
Image Quality
customers need
Portability

32. Image Quality Up here, image quality is not creating
any additional customer value.
Who needs another megapixel when you
have 10 already?
Image Quality
customers need
Portability

33. Now, let’s try again to compare
mobile and compact cameras.

34. Image Quality
Image Quality
customers need
Portability

35. Image Quality
By 2005, compact cameras offered good
image quality and were easy to bring along
Image Quality
customers need
Portability

36. Image Quality
By 2005, compact cameras offered good
image quality and were easy to bring along
Image Quality
customers need
Portability

37. Image Quality
By 2005, compact cameras offered good
image quality and were easy to bring along
Image Quality
customers need
Mobile cameras offered lower
image quality, but were more
’portable’ Portability

38. The image quality of both
products then improves over
the following years.

39. What happens?

40. Image Quality
Image Quality
customers need
Portability

41. Image Quality
Image Quality
customers need
Portability

42. Image Quality
Increased image quality does not
result in additional customer value!
Image Quality
customers need
Portability

43. Image Quality
Increased image quality does not
result in additional customer value!
Image Quality
customers need
Portability

44. Image Quality
Increased image quality does not
result in additional customer value!
Image Quality
customers need
Portability

45. Image Quality
Increased image quality does not
result in additional customer value!
Image Quality
customers need
Mobile cameras still offer worse image quality, but
it is good enough. Also, they are easier to bring
along. At this point, compact cameras will be
replaced, this started to happen in 2005-2006… Portability

46. The phenomenon is called
’Technology overshooting’, and
refers to when technologies
have not reached their peak of
the S-curve, but are still
replaced because customers do
not value additional
performance.

47. Find out more:
www.christiansandstrom.org