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Introduction to Energy Technology
                                        Roadmaps
Energy technology roadmaps   Energy technology roadmaps
                                                          © OECD/IEA 2011
Key technologies for reducing global CO2
                  emissions
               60
      Gt CO2



                                        Baseline emissions 57 Gt                   End-use fuel and electricity
               55
                                                                                   efficiency 38%
               50
                                                                                   End-use fuel switching 15%
               45
               40                                                                  Power generation efficiency and
               35                                                                  fuel switching 5%




                                                                                                                           source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
               30                                                                  Nuclear 6%
               25
                                                                                   Renewables 17%
               20
               15                     BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt                     CCS 19%
               10
               5
               0
                2010   2015   2020   2025   2030     2035     2040   2045   2050

      A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related
      CO2 emissions substantially.


                                               Energy technology roadmaps
28-Feb-12
                                                                                                                  © OECD/IEA 2009
The Role of Roadmaps

• A global price for carbon is necessary
   – …but by itself insufficient to accelerate the needed energy
     technology advancements in time
• Greater focus on energy technology policies needed
• Technology roadmaps can support GHG goals by:
   – Identifying and addressing technology-specific barriers
   – Highlighting necessary deployment policies and incentives
   – Directing increased RD&D funding for new technologies
   – Supporting technology diffusion, knowledge sharing among countries

                               Energy technology roadmaps
                                                                      © OECD/IEA 2011
Technology roadmaps provide answers
• Where is technology today?
   • GW installed capacity/kWh of savings
   • Leading countries/regions
   • Cost, efficiency
• What is the deployment pathway needed to achieve 2050 goals?
   • Use IEA Energy Technology Perspectives BLUE Map scenarios
• What are the priority near-term actions?
   •   R&D gaps and how to fill them
   •   Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome
   •   Market requirements and policy needs
   •   Technology diffusion/transfer and international collaboration needs


                                   Energy technology roadmaps
                                                                             © OECD/IEA 2011
Roadmap logic

• Goal to achieve
• Milestones to be met
• Gaps to be filled
• Actions to overcome
  gaps and barriers
• What and when things
  need to be achieved

                  Energy technology roadmaps
                                               © OECD/IEA 2011
Roadmap process outline




        Energy technology roadmaps
                                     © OECD/IEA 2011
Roadmap Tasks

• Scoping phase reviewing existing work and identifying
  issues
• One or more workshops with 15-30 experts from
  industry, government, academia...
• Develop draft roadmap
• Circulate draft of roadmap to wider stakeholder group
• Carry out missing analysis and refine roadmap
• Re-circulate second draft for further comment
• Publish roadmap

                       Energy technology roadmaps
                                                          © OECD/IEA 2011
Technology roadmaps
2009   2010     2011                       2012
                                   •Vehicle Fuel Economy
                                   •High efficiency,
                                   low emissions coal
                                   •Hydropower
                                   •Bioenergy
                                   •Solar heating & cooling
                                   •Energy efficient building
                                   envelopes
                                   •Chemical catalysis




              Energy technology roadmaps
                                                          © OECD/IEA 2011
IEA ROADMAP EXAMPLES




           Energy technology roadmaps
                                        © OECD/IEA 2011
Roadmap example:
Wind - an ambitious growth pathway
                                         6000                                                                                        25%
  Wind electricity production (TWh/yr)




                                         5000




                                                                                                                                           % of global electricity production
                                                                                                                                     20%

                                         4000
                                                                                                                                     15%

                                         3000

                                                                                                                                     10%
                                         2000

                                                                                                                                     5%
                                         1000


                                           0                                                                                         0%
                                                2010   2015      2020       2025        2030   2035      2040       2045      2050
                                                          China                                OECD Europe
                                                          USA                                  OECD Pacific
                                                          Latin America                        India
                                                          EiT                                  Other North America
                                                          Middle East                          Other Developing Asia
                                                          Africa                               Wind share BLUE Map scenario
                                                          Wind share BLUE hi REN scenario




                                                                             Energy technology roadmaps
                                                                                                                                                                                © OECD/IEA 2011
EE in Buildings roadmap example:
       Cost reduction goals




            Energy technology roadmaps
                                         © OECD/IEA 2011
EV/PHEV roadmap example:
       milestones




        Energy technology roadmaps
                                     © OECD/IEA 2011

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Introduction to Energy Technology Roadmaps

  • 1. Introduction to Energy Technology Roadmaps Energy technology roadmaps Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 2. Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions 60 Gt CO2 Baseline emissions 57 Gt End-use fuel and electricity 55 efficiency 38% 50 End-use fuel switching 15% 45 40 Power generation efficiency and 35 fuel switching 5% source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 30 Nuclear 6% 25 Renewables 17% 20 15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt CCS 19% 10 5 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially. Energy technology roadmaps 28-Feb-12 © OECD/IEA 2009
  • 3. The Role of Roadmaps • A global price for carbon is necessary – …but by itself insufficient to accelerate the needed energy technology advancements in time • Greater focus on energy technology policies needed • Technology roadmaps can support GHG goals by: – Identifying and addressing technology-specific barriers – Highlighting necessary deployment policies and incentives – Directing increased RD&D funding for new technologies – Supporting technology diffusion, knowledge sharing among countries Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 4. Technology roadmaps provide answers • Where is technology today? • GW installed capacity/kWh of savings • Leading countries/regions • Cost, efficiency • What is the deployment pathway needed to achieve 2050 goals? • Use IEA Energy Technology Perspectives BLUE Map scenarios • What are the priority near-term actions? • R&D gaps and how to fill them • Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome • Market requirements and policy needs • Technology diffusion/transfer and international collaboration needs Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 5. Roadmap logic • Goal to achieve • Milestones to be met • Gaps to be filled • Actions to overcome gaps and barriers • What and when things need to be achieved Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 6. Roadmap process outline Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 7. Roadmap Tasks • Scoping phase reviewing existing work and identifying issues • One or more workshops with 15-30 experts from industry, government, academia... • Develop draft roadmap • Circulate draft of roadmap to wider stakeholder group • Carry out missing analysis and refine roadmap • Re-circulate second draft for further comment • Publish roadmap Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 8. Technology roadmaps 2009 2010 2011 2012 •Vehicle Fuel Economy •High efficiency, low emissions coal •Hydropower •Bioenergy •Solar heating & cooling •Energy efficient building envelopes •Chemical catalysis Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 9. IEA ROADMAP EXAMPLES Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 10. Roadmap example: Wind - an ambitious growth pathway 6000 25% Wind electricity production (TWh/yr) 5000 % of global electricity production 20% 4000 15% 3000 10% 2000 5% 1000 0 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China OECD Europe USA OECD Pacific Latin America India EiT Other North America Middle East Other Developing Asia Africa Wind share BLUE Map scenario Wind share BLUE hi REN scenario Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 11. EE in Buildings roadmap example: Cost reduction goals Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 12. EV/PHEV roadmap example: milestones Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011