This document summarizes a PhD thesis on population dynamics, damage estimation, and management strategies of rodents in the sugarcane-wheat cropping system in Lower Sindh, Pakistan. The objectives are to estimate rodent population densities, assess crop damage at various growth stages, develop mechanical and chemical control methods, and estimate population dynamics and fluctuations across seasons and crops. Field experiments will be conducted using live traps, zinc phosphide, brodifacoum, and bromadiolone baits in a randomized block design. The outcomes aim to improve farmer livelihoods and transfer control knowledge.

1. SYNOPSIS
1. TITLE:
POPULATION DYNAMICS, DAMAGE ESTIMATION AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
OF RODENTS IN SUGARCANE-WHEAT CROPPING SYSTEM IN LOWER SINDH
Synopsis For : Doctor of Philosophy
Supervisor’s Name : DR. AMJAD PEVEZ
Director, Vertebrate Pest Control Institute
SARC, Pak. Agric. Res. Coucil, Karachi
Student’s Name : Mohammed Hanif Qureshi
Agriculture Extension Department, Govt. of Sindh
Institute : Agriculture & Agri-Business Management
University of Karachi
Duration : July 2013- July 2015
UNIVERSITY OF KARACHI
KARACHI, SINDH, PAKISTAN

2. 2. INTRODUCTION:
Sugarcane is grown in all provinces of Pakistan. In different Surveys conducted
by the Vertebrate Pest control Centre during 1977 and onwards, it was found that
10% of sugarcane stalks in Faisalabad district of Punjab were damaged by rats,
whereas in Badin district of Sindh Province, the average number of rat damaged
stalks delivered to sugarmills was 12% (T.J. Toberts, 1981). In Hyderabad
district, 7-8% of the cane was recorded damaged. Generally sugarcane occupies
the land for twelve continuous months and this provides attractive shelter as well
as food for resident rat pests. Often, when adjacent crops are harvested, rats
move into standing cane crops to seek shelter and food (Beg et. al., 1979).
Out-breaks of rodent populations is a unique ecological phenomenon which has
been less studied or understood. The losses thus caused result into total
destruction of crops. In 1989, out-break of the hairy-footed gerbil (Gerbillus
gleadowi) in Tharparkar desert of Pakistan was reported by team of Vertebrate
Pest Control Institute. The estimated damage caused to millets and gowar in four
talukas was 13,748 and 3,995 t, respectively (Khokar and Rizvi, 1991).
Throughout the world, wheat, rice, sugarcane, coconuts and oilpalm are severely
damaged by various species of rodents.
In Pakistan there are three major rat species that live in sugarcane fields and
cause extensive damage them. Not all of them are equally important, but as a
group they cannot be ignored.The most serious pest is the lesser bandicoot rat,
(Bandicota bengalensis). The second most important pest is the short-tailed mole
rat (Nesokia indica). The mole rat lives and feeds in its subterranean habits and it
damages cane by feeding on the roots and underground stems of sugarcane. This
may kill the cane or severely stunt its growth. Possibly the next most important
pest is the soft furred field rats (Millardia meltada). It will eat some cane, and

3. often being the most abundant rat, causes economic damage due to their
numbers. Since cane is not a major portion of its diet, the sugarcane is the only
shelter for it when the cropped land is lying fallow, and it is a problem
afterwards. Evaluation and quantification of impacts of rodents on growing
crops their destruction to stored food products is at best meager except in few
cases where damages have been evaluated in terms of reduction in yield and
resultant economic loss. Estimates of food losses to growing crops vary wide in
Pakistan and Southeast Asian countries. In most cases, such estimates are not
statistically defensible. However, in Pakistan, majority of the studies conducted
by Vertebrate Pest Management Programmes of PARC were well designed
(quadrate, multiple or stratified sampling techniques) and results, in most cases
are statistically reliable. In Pakistan, Khan (1990) comprehensively reviewed
damge and losses caused by vertebrate pests by enumerating results of studies
upto 1988. A more reliable and critically analyzed data on rice damage estimates
have been provided by Singleton (2003) and of various cereals being effected by
out-breaks of different rodent species in Africa and Latin America by Stenseth et
al. (2003). The work of these authors, combined together, give a global overview
of the bio-economic impacts of rodent pests on crop production.
3. OBJECTIVES:
The main objectives of the proposed study is to ascertain population fluctuations
and management strategy of rodents in sugarcane-wheat cropping system in
Sind.
Following are detailed objectives:
a. To workout various methods to estimate population density of field rats/mice
in sugarcane-wheat cropping system of lower Sindh.
b. To ascertain damage assesment of crop at various growth stages.

4. c. To workout various ways and means i.e, mechanical and chemical to manage
rodent population.
d. To estimate the population dynamics and fluctuations during different
seasons and crop-wise responses of rodent-pests in a particular agro-
ecosystem.
e. To disseminate developed technology to various stakeholders through
multidisciplinary approaches.
f. To workout cost/benefit ratio of developed package.
4. Plan of work:
4.1 Population density:
a. population dynamics
Rates of natality, mortality, immigration (=movement into the population) and
emigration (=movement out of a population) combine to determine the Density.
The interaction of these forces is called Population Dynamics. Everywhere in
Pakistan, there are seasonal changes in the climate which cause rodent density to
vary greatly over a period of year. An understanding of population dynamics
must include seasonal variation of births and deaths rate. Each species shows a
different pattern of seasonal and geographic variations. Even populations of
single species living in different climatic zones differ in their geographic
population dynamics.
b. Damage assessment of Sugarcane-wheat cropping system:
Rat damage both the roots or hills (short-tailed mole rats mainly) and the
internodes usually near the base of the cane. This means that individual stalks
may be carefully examined to find both kind of damages. Damage surveys at
harvest tend to underestimate stalk mortality because stalks with severe root
damage which decomposes and may not be seen. Some stalks with cut roots do

5. remain standing and could be detected at harvest time. Rodent damage may does
not correlate directly with decrease in sugar yield, because many plants though
partially damaged, do produce some sugar contents at harvest. Measuring crop
damage and yield loss is labour intensive and complicated in majority cases
because uniform sampling techniques are difficult to develop. Adequate
sampling techniques have only been developed for a few crops and in few
situations (FAO/CAB. 1971). While estimating the damage and yields various
factors need to be considered such as varietal susceptibility, early and late
sowing varieties, and time of sampling. The best data collected will be 1-2 days
before harvest. Further to it, we need a better understanding of the trade-off
between the costs and benefits of the tools and technologies for control. The out-
come of a cost-benefit analysis must depend on the value of a crop, the timing
and the costs and effectiveness of control techniques. Khan (2010) also observed
many rice fields in Thatta district during 80’s which were completely harvested
by rats. In 1974, VPCC began field studies which indicated that general
conditions in the remoter rural areas of Thatta district remained much as
described by Wagle (1927). Recent studies conducted under a coordinated ALP
project of PARC indicated that Indian crested porcupine has emerged as a major
pest in all the agro-ecological zones of Pakistan (Pervez et al., 2000). In
Pakistan, Greaves et al. (1977) obtained 50-fold return on the cost of materials in
paddies through large-scale trials in many areas of Thatta and Badin districts.
Estimate of crop losses by vertebrate pests are necessary for several reasons:
1. To provide a means of evaluating the effectiveness of various pest control
programmes in reducing sugarcane damage.

6. 2. To correrlate the visible damage (=number or percentage of damage stems) in
the fields to reduction in the yield so that crop losses can be estimated from
single stem counts.
3. In case of sugarcane also to determine the sugar content loss during the
processing in the industry as well as in the field.
Generally following methods will be applied to manage pest populations
below economic threshold levels in Sugarcane-wheat Cropping system:
4.2 Damage Estimation:
a. Rat damage fluctuation factors in sugarcane-wheat cropping system
Rat population are not stable through out the year, or from year to year, and their
numbers are subject to considerable fluctuations. Some reasons for fluctuations
we understand are flooding, breeding cycles, time of year, stage of the crop and
types of the crops. Each crop has an associated rat population cycle, this cycle is
generally at its peak at the harvesting time of a crop.
4.3 Control:
Methods of Control:
a) Mechanical: Trapping and netting Devices (=Live traps)
b) Chemical Control (=Bait: Brodifacoum/Bromadiolone (anticoagulant)
and Zinc Phosphide (acute rodenticide).
a) Mechanical Methods:
Mechanical techniques such as hunting, killing and trapping often involve high
labour costs and are less practicable over large areas. However, these can be
integrated with chemical control techniques to achieve better control success or
can replace chemical control in areas where the use of rodenticides may cause
health and environmental problems.

7. The second control strategy which will be used to control and collect the
data of population densities of different rodent species in each of the fields of
sugarcane-wheat is the live-bait techniques.
The most important use of live-traps in rodent management, however, is a
tool for monitoring rodent populations and population studies of different types
of rodent species. It is important to monitor rodent population in different agro-
ecosystems. Several to numerous rodent species may occur in any given area,
but in many situations only one (or few) species is causing damage. Knowing
what species are present allows the development of control strategies which
account for non-target species and minimize non-target loss. Monitoring rodent
populations is also very important because densities can fluctuate dramatically
with a year and between years and also some other informations like, rodent
populations, their breeding cycle throughout the year, reinvasion and their
dispersal patterns.
At the same time, rodents have many important ecological roles and most
species are not major pests. Some of the roles include soil mixing and aeration,
seed and spore dispersal, influences on plant species composition and
abundance, and a prey base for many predatory vertebrates. The rodent
population should be carefully monitored with a standardized protocol so that
direct population control can be quickly implemented, if necessary. One major
objective of this study is, therefore, to decompose the annual variation in density
(and the model describing this variation) into its seasonal components.
Considerable variations exist in the susceptibility of the pest species to different
methods, particularly to rodenticides and trapping, their field applicability,
efficacy and economics in different crops, seasons and geographical regions,
behavioral responses of the pest species to these methods in different ecological

8. conditions and their adoption by farmers in different regions. Knowledge of the
characteristics, extent of damage and situations vulnerable to attack by rodents in
different crops and regions is important in planning management strategies.
The Present study will focus on the management and control strategies by using
different bait packages for the small farmers which should be effective, palatable
and economically feasible for them.
4.4 Experimental Design and Study area:
The Study area will be situated at Thatta and Sujawal talukas of lower Sindh
Province. The area for both of the control management techniques will be
divided into four blocks, (i.e. three treatments and one control plot) using a
randomized complete block design. The treatment blocks will be comprised of
bradifacoum/bromadiolone and zinc phosphide baits. The zinc phosphide (acute
rodenticide), brodifacoum and/bromadiolone (=second generation
anticoagulants) will be used as rodenticides. The trials will be conducted at the
different harvesting stages of Sugarcane and wheat crops. The percentage of
damage will be calculated by the formula:
D%= 100TC/N, Where D% is percentage of damaged tillers,
TC is tillers cut by Rodent, & N is total numbers of inspected tillers.
Table 1. ESTIMATED PRE AND POST HARVEST LOSSES CAUSED
BY VERTEBRATE PESTS IN PAKISTAN
S. No. Pest Crop Mean Damage US$(million) Rs. (million)
1. Rats and mice Wheat 3.5% 52.910 841.269
2. Wild boar Wheat 5.2% 78.461 1247.529
3. Rats and mice Sugarcane 9.2% 8.843 140.604
4. Wild boar Sugarcane 7.5% 37.90 602.610

9.  From VPCIL/PARC Manual and current research
Table 2. COST/BENEFIT RATIOS OBTAINED THROUGH RODENT
CONTROL TRIALS IN SUGARCANE AND WHEAT CROPS,
PAKISTAN
S.No. Rodenticides Cost Bait Cost Return Return Ratio
Used(kg/ha) Rs./ha Rs./ha
__________________________________________________________
Wheat
Zinc phosphide(2%) 5.00 75.00 653.00 1:9
Coumatetralyl 7.00 105.00 323.00 1:3
(0.005%)
Brodifacoum wax 2.50 145.00 812.00 1:6
blocks (0.005%)
Sugarcane
Zinc phosphide (2%) 7.50 112.50 864.00 1:8
Coumatetralyl 13.50 222.50 5145.00 1:23
(0.0375%)
5. OUT-COMES OF THE STUDY:
1. To improve the socio-economic condition of the farmers community and
livelihood.
2. Transfer of knowledge to the farmers community as well.
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