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Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation (January 2014)
The report details global wheat supply and demand for the years 2011/12 to 2013/14, highlighting a significant increase in world wheat production by 8.7% for the 2013/14 season. India is noted for its higher role in the export market with production reaching 92.5 million tons, while Black Sea exports have also risen to 35.3 million tons. The U.S. and South Africa face unique challenges, with the latter requiring substantial imports due to a limited local crop.
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Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation (January 2014)
- 1. WORLD WHEAT Source: USWheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
- 2. The World WheatMarket Year 11/12 12/13 13/14 Production 697 656 713 Consumption 697 679 703 Surplus (shortfall) 1 -23 10 0 2
- 3. World Production andUse 0 3
- 4. Supplies in TopExporting Countries* *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan 0 4
- 5. World wheat supply& demand Date Beginning stock Production Supply total 12/13 13/14 199 199 176 697 656 713 896 Supply 11/12 855 889 Trade Exports/imports 158 138 159 Demand Food & seed Feed & residual Use tool 550 543 567 147 136 136 697 679 703 199 176 185 Ending stocks 0 5
- 6. Global Stocks* -to-UseRatio *Ending stocks 0 6
- 7. Global Ending Stocksand Price 0 7
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- 9. International Wheat Factors Record2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 8.7% from last season, +57 million tons. Approximately 19.3% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and resultantly the Chicago corn / wheat spread has narrowed from US$2.30 / buschel to the current US$1.49 / buschel. India playing a larger role in export market – Indian production to reach 92.5 MMT, up 10% from 5-year average and second largest on record. Black Sea exports to reach 35.3 MMT and represent 22% of world market, compared to 19% in 2012/13 0 9
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- 13. Supply & demandof wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons) Date 13/14* Opening stock 489 Production 1751 Imports 1650* Consumption 3086 Exports 265 Closing stock 539 0 13
- 14. Local Wheat Drivers Limitedsmall crop – 1,751 million tons (need to import 49% of requirement) = import parity driven With record world crop produced, fairly good export competition keeping a lid on prices (quality milling wheat less abundant). Single largest driver of local prices is the weakening currency (Rand). 0 14
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