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22nd Annual IAOM MEA Conference Dead Sea, Jordan   October 2-5, 2011 Finding Food Security Alan Tracy President
 
World Wheat Belts  Northern and Southern Hemispheres World Grain Belts  Northern and Southern Hemispheres Northern Hemisphere Wheat Belt Northern Hemisphere Grain Belt Southern Hemisphere Wheat Belt Southern Hemisphere Grain Belt
World Population Growth: Fertility Rates (Births per Woman) 7-8 Children       6-7 Children       5-6 Children       4-5 Children       3-4 Children       2-3 Children       1-2 Children       0-1 Children Mid-Latitude Demand Concentration
Projected World Population Growth 2010 to 2050  (From 6.8 to 9.5 billion?) Southern Hemisphere Grain Belt Northern Hemisphere Grain Belt Mid-Latitude Demand Concentration Latin America + 300 Million Africa +1 Billion Asia +1.8  Billion
World   Growth Snapshot 2010 Developing Countries Developed Countries (excluding US) Foreign households w/real PPP incomes greater than $20,000 a year  (in millions of households) Source: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA/FAS/USDA
Grain Trade Growth to 2030 http://www.uswheat.org/reports
Grain Trade Growth 310 MMT Projected 465 MMT
World Wheat Production, Use and Trade -------  HRW 11.5 pro FOB Gulf
Wheat Price Volatility +$280/MT  in  5 months 2007 - $200/MT in 2 months 2008 +$115 in  5 weeks July 2011 Range of $75/MT Over 20 years 1987 to 2007
World Grain Production USDA September Estimate
Wheat soars to limit on Russia export halt Thu Aug 5, 2010 4:42pm EDT WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures soared on Thursday, settling  up the permitted daily maximum for the first time in two years after No. 3 exporter  Russia  said it would temporarily halt grain shipments.
August 3, 2010 Global Wheat Shortage Feared as Prices Surge August 2, 2010 Rise in wheat prices fastest since 1973   August 6, 2010 Wheat's (price) Advance Revives Food Crisis Concern
Two days of unrest in Maputo, Mozambique, left seven people dead and 280 injured after the government decided to raise bread prices by 30%  Published: September 2, 2010   Fears grow over global food supply
 
January 30, 2009 Wealthy countries want to buy farmland abroad December 14, 2008 Global grain rush under way as rich nations snap up farmland overseas May 21, 2009 Rich food importers are acquiring vast tracts of poor countries' farmland
July 9, 2011 South Korea to expand overseas farming on rising food costs July 29, 2011 China increasing investment in South American agriculture February 3, 2011 Asia, Middle East Target Ukraine Farms to Secure Supplies
Buying farmland abroad seems logical… but will not guarantee food security ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Don’t just treat the symptoms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Real food security  is  possible with: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Focus on these strategies first!
Foreign Ownership of U.S. Farmland ,[object Object],Foreign Investment in U.S. Agriculture ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],next to  nothing … substantial …
Don’t compete with farmers…rely on them!
Invest in Sustainable Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Your  Best  Food Security Relationships with  Reliable  Suppliers!
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank You! Alan Tracy President

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Finding Food Security - IAOM 2011

  • 1. 22nd Annual IAOM MEA Conference Dead Sea, Jordan October 2-5, 2011 Finding Food Security Alan Tracy President
  • 2.  
  • 3. World Wheat Belts Northern and Southern Hemispheres World Grain Belts Northern and Southern Hemispheres Northern Hemisphere Wheat Belt Northern Hemisphere Grain Belt Southern Hemisphere Wheat Belt Southern Hemisphere Grain Belt
  • 4. World Population Growth: Fertility Rates (Births per Woman) 7-8 Children       6-7 Children       5-6 Children       4-5 Children       3-4 Children       2-3 Children       1-2 Children       0-1 Children Mid-Latitude Demand Concentration
  • 5. Projected World Population Growth 2010 to 2050 (From 6.8 to 9.5 billion?) Southern Hemisphere Grain Belt Northern Hemisphere Grain Belt Mid-Latitude Demand Concentration Latin America + 300 Million Africa +1 Billion Asia +1.8 Billion
  • 6. World Growth Snapshot 2010 Developing Countries Developed Countries (excluding US) Foreign households w/real PPP incomes greater than $20,000 a year (in millions of households) Source: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA/FAS/USDA
  • 7. Grain Trade Growth to 2030 http://www.uswheat.org/reports
  • 8. Grain Trade Growth 310 MMT Projected 465 MMT
  • 9. World Wheat Production, Use and Trade ------- HRW 11.5 pro FOB Gulf
  • 10. Wheat Price Volatility +$280/MT in 5 months 2007 - $200/MT in 2 months 2008 +$115 in 5 weeks July 2011 Range of $75/MT Over 20 years 1987 to 2007
  • 11. World Grain Production USDA September Estimate
  • 12. Wheat soars to limit on Russia export halt Thu Aug 5, 2010 4:42pm EDT WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures soared on Thursday, settling up the permitted daily maximum for the first time in two years after No. 3 exporter Russia said it would temporarily halt grain shipments.
  • 13. August 3, 2010 Global Wheat Shortage Feared as Prices Surge August 2, 2010 Rise in wheat prices fastest since 1973 August 6, 2010 Wheat's (price) Advance Revives Food Crisis Concern
  • 14. Two days of unrest in Maputo, Mozambique, left seven people dead and 280 injured after the government decided to raise bread prices by 30% Published: September 2, 2010 Fears grow over global food supply
  • 15.  
  • 16. January 30, 2009 Wealthy countries want to buy farmland abroad December 14, 2008 Global grain rush under way as rich nations snap up farmland overseas May 21, 2009 Rich food importers are acquiring vast tracts of poor countries' farmland
  • 17. July 9, 2011 South Korea to expand overseas farming on rising food costs July 29, 2011 China increasing investment in South American agriculture February 3, 2011 Asia, Middle East Target Ukraine Farms to Secure Supplies
  • 18.
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  • 22. Don’t compete with farmers…rely on them!
  • 23.
  • 24. Your Best Food Security Relationships with Reliable Suppliers!
  • 25.
  • 26. Thank You! Alan Tracy President