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WORLD WHEAT
Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on
their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
The World Wheat Market
Year

11/12 12/13 13/14

Production

698

655

706

Consumption

697

679

703

Surplus (shortfall)

1

-24

3

0 2
World Production and Use

0 3
Supplies in Top Exporting
Countries*

*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

0 4
World wheat supply & demand
Date
Beginning stock
Production
Supply total

12/13

13/14

199

199

176

698

655

706

896

Supply

11/12

855

882

Trade

Exports/imports

158

138

154

Demand

Food & seed
Feed & residual
Use tool

550

543

564

147

136

139

697

679

703

199

176

178

Ending
stocks

0 5
Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio

*Ending stocks

0 6
Global Ending Stocks and Price

0 7
Black Sea Exports

0 8
International Wheat Factors
Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 7.8% from last season, +51
million tons.
Approximately 20% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and with
the Chicago corn / wheat spread at US$2.30 / buschel - battle.
In spite of problems in South America (frost in Brazil and smaller plantings in
Argentina) – not bullish internationally (Canada and Australia – larger crops).
New season Northern Hemisphere – US / Black Sea / EU plantings look good
– start harvest in June 2014

0 9
U.S. Situation

0 10
Argentina Situation

0 11
Canada Situation

0 12
Supply & demand of wheat
in South Africa (‘000 tons)
Date

13/14*

Opening stock

489

Production

1752

Imports

1600*

Consumption

3040

Exports

280

Closing stock

521

0 13
Local Wheat Drivers
With small local crop, we will trade inland import parity
Currently local wheat well priced versus imports (R / US$), +- R100 / ton at
R10.20 / US$
Western Cape quality concern – at least 100 000 tons lost to feed (S&D)
Still some unsold Black Sea wheat stored in silos / more coming in Dec / Jan

0 14
Local Prices

2900

2850

2800

2750

2700

2650

0 15

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Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation (December 2013)

  • 1. WORLD WHEAT Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
  • 2. The World Wheat Market Year 11/12 12/13 13/14 Production 698 655 706 Consumption 697 679 703 Surplus (shortfall) 1 -24 3 0 2
  • 4. Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan 0 4
  • 5. World wheat supply & demand Date Beginning stock Production Supply total 12/13 13/14 199 199 176 698 655 706 896 Supply 11/12 855 882 Trade Exports/imports 158 138 154 Demand Food & seed Feed & residual Use tool 550 543 564 147 136 139 697 679 703 199 176 178 Ending stocks 0 5
  • 6. Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio *Ending stocks 0 6
  • 7. Global Ending Stocks and Price 0 7
  • 9. International Wheat Factors Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 7.8% from last season, +51 million tons. Approximately 20% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and with the Chicago corn / wheat spread at US$2.30 / buschel - battle. In spite of problems in South America (frost in Brazil and smaller plantings in Argentina) – not bullish internationally (Canada and Australia – larger crops). New season Northern Hemisphere – US / Black Sea / EU plantings look good – start harvest in June 2014 0 9
  • 13. Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons) Date 13/14* Opening stock 489 Production 1752 Imports 1600* Consumption 3040 Exports 280 Closing stock 521 0 13
  • 14. Local Wheat Drivers With small local crop, we will trade inland import parity Currently local wheat well priced versus imports (R / US$), +- R100 / ton at R10.20 / US$ Western Cape quality concern – at least 100 000 tons lost to feed (S&D) Still some unsold Black Sea wheat stored in silos / more coming in Dec / Jan 0 14