A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world (as of August 2012) Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org

1. WORLD WHEAT
Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on
their website: http://www.uswheat.org/

2. The World Wheat Market
Year 10/11 11/12 12/13
Production 652 695 663
Consumption 654 696 683
Surplus (shortfall) -2 -1 -20
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3. Major Users of Wheat
China 116 million tons per annum
India 91 million tons per annum
South Africa 3,10 million tons per annum,
including exports to our
African neighbors
- not really a factor
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4. World wheat supply & demand
Date 10/11 11/12 12/13
Supply Beginning stock 201 198 198
Production
Supply total 652 695 663
852 893 860
Trade Exports/imports 132 154 135
Demand Food & seed 538 550 549
Feed & residual
Use tool 116 146 134
654 696 683
Ending
stocks 198 198 177
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5. World Beginning Stocks
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6. World Ending Stocks
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7. Wheat Expectations
World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are forecast to decline by 10,6% to 177
million tons. China’s ending stock is 55,5 million tons accounting for 31% of
total world stocks.
Total world wheat consumption is expected to decrease by (-1,9%) and by a
large 8% in the feed market due to the high prices and smaller availability (-12
million tons).
Black Sea wheat production has declined to an estimated 83 million tons
from 114 million tons in 2011/12 due to adverse growing weather.
World wheat production is forecast to decrease to 663 million tons in
2012/13, down significantly from the record 695 million tons in 2011/12 but still
above the 652 million tons of 2010/11.
Global stocks to usage ratio expected to fall to 26%.
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8. U.S. Situation
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9. Canada Situation
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10. Black Sea Exports
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11. Argentina Situation
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12. Australia Situation
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13. Global Ending Stocks and Price
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14. Supply & demand of
wheat in South
Date 11/12
Opening stock 478
Production 2005
Imports 1550
Consumption 3199
Exports 287
Closing stock 547
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15. Wheat Summary
2012/13 world wheat crop estimated 4,6% smaller than 2011/12 record crop.
2012/13 world wheat consumption estimated 1,9% lower than 2011/12 crop.
Larger US and Canadian crops will result in increased exports to compensate
for the lower Black Sea exports
US wheat prices are not competitive and exports are lagging estimates, with
Egypt recently tendering to buy 180 000 tons from Russia and 60 000 tons
from the Ukraine at US$30/ton discounts to US wheat prices.
Local wheat prices for Sept are currently trading above Argentine inland
import parity levels.
New season local wheat plantings are estimated 9,6% lower meaning that at
least 1,7 million tons of imports will be required to balance demand.
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16. R / US$ Exchange rate
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17. Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio
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18. Kansas Sept Futures Price (HRW Wheat)
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19. Local Prices
2900
2850
2800
2750
2700
2650
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20. Thank you