This document discusses the significant impact of supply chain disruptions on business success, highlighting various risk factors such as natural disasters, political unrest, and the complexities of modern supply chains. It emphasizes the increasing need for companies to reevaluate their risk management strategies, focusing on both tangible and intangible risks, and suggests actions like joining the C-TPAT program to enhance supply chain security. The conclusion stresses the importance of contingency planning and flexibility in managing unexpected disruptions for long-term business sustainability.

1. Andrew M. Amalfitano
"Impact of Risk Enablers and Realization on Supply Chain
Disruptions"
Andy Amalfitano
MSBC Seminar #4
Risk Management
Week 9, Essay 8
Aug. 7, 2010
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2. Andrew M. Amalfitano
Thesis
Supply chain disruptions can dramatically and permanently affect the success of a
business. A shipment fails to arrive on time or is damaged enroute due to violent storms
suffered by the transport barge; political unrest in developing nations changes the
import/export policies; increasing piracy threatens to severely limit the source of parts
and supplies being delivered to your overseas factories. More recently, the eruption of
the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland demonstrated how vulnerable some industries are
to air transport disruptions.
“Nearly three-quarters of risk managers say their companies' supply
chain risk levels have increased since 2005,” according to Marsh's
survey of 110 corporate risk managers in January and February. [1]
Supply chain insurance demand grows each year, yet the types of insurance coverage
rarely account for more than physical damage. That's changing and businesses need to
reevaluate their supply chain insurance coverage.
This paper describes the financial challenges faced by a companies with global supply
chains and some suggested actions to realize and mitigate risks using among other
strategies understanding of options including joining the C-TPAT program.[2]
The Unexpected: We May Not be Ready?
Singhal and Hendricks in a study of 800 companies who incurred a supply chain
disruption between 1989 and 2000 found that 33-40 percent experienced lower stock
returns, share price volatility increased 13.5 percent, profits plummeted 7 percent, costs
rose 11 percent and inventories increased 14 percent.[3]
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3. Andrew M. Amalfitano
Companies can hedge their investments by diversification which brings some comfort
level to the executives and shareholders. However, very little can prepare a company for
unforeseen and unexpected supply chain disruptions.
The conflation or confluence of disruptions can further exacerbate the impact and
significantly damage customer satisfaction. Conflation describes the sequential
occurrence of risk events that disrupt the enterprise. For example, a first event (major
earthquake) partially disables and weakens the supply chain; a second event (dock
workers' strike) cripples the supply chain causing significant delays. Confluence
describes the simultaneous occurrence of risk events that overwhelm the enterprise. In
the previous example, both events occur at the same time resulting in completely
undeliverable shipments.[4]
Insurance typically only covers physical losses due to transit or other damage incurred
from natural hazards. Conflation and confluence situations don't usually produce
physical damage and therefore a company does not have risk mitigation in the form of
financial reimbursement. In most cases, the risks caused by natural hazards, political
unrest and other modern day threats is not covered by insurance. Some companies are
now holding their subordinate supply chain and vendors accountable for implementing
their own risk management plans.[5]
Even if the company does have a way to cover financial losses, the impact on customer
satisfaction will be dramatic. Understanding and realizing options for risk mitigation can
have a profound effect on the how companies recover from such disruptions.
Intangible Risk
Another key issue is that beyond the physical and tangible risks are many more (and
worse) intangible risks. Members of the supply chain including employees may hold
attitudes and perceptions that undermine the process and inadvertently pose a risk.
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4. Andrew M. Amalfitano
The intangible lack of confidence in a supply chain leads to actions and interventions by
supply chain members, which could increase the risk exposure. The bottom line is that
the company experiences a higher level of uncertainty with lower confidence. Typical
issues are no confidence in:
 Order cycle time
 Order current status
 Demand forecasts given
 Suppliers’ capability to deliver
 Manufacturing capacity
 Quality of the products
 Services delivered[6]
This lack of confidence can compound the external risks described earlier and lead to
conflation and confluence. It's what Husdal (2009) calls a risk spiral which can lead to
increased reliance on inventory buffers which may not hold up under protracted supply
chain disruptions.[7]
Realize the Risk and Take Action
Two aspects of executive action may be simply the right and the wrong action. The
former leading to positive consequences and latter leading to negative consequences. In
either case, an altered state or risk is the result. To avoid the negative consequences a
great deal of critical thinking needs to take place which challenges the current risk
management plan and attempts to envision "Unexpected, Unanticipated, Unintended
Consequences." [8]
C-TPAT - Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism
Of the top 10 potential benefits companies considered for joining C-TPAT, reduction in
insurance rates was only 10th with less than 4 percent indicating that as a motivator.[9]
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5. Andrew M. Amalfitano
Two key motivators for joining C-TPAT included:
 reducing the time and cost of getting cargo released by Customs
 reduced time and cost in CBP secondary cargo inspection lines. [10]
The results seem beneficial as described by those companies responding to the survey:
 "The vast majority (81.3%) of businesses that had a formal system in place for
assessing and managing supply risk agreed or somewhat agreed that their
businesses’ ability to assess and manage supply risk has been strengthened as a
result of joining C-TPAT.

Three quarters (75.2%) of businesses that had formal supply continuity and
contingency plans.[11]
Other actions suggested by C-TPAT guidelines include how to manage the supply chain
risk process in a way that ensures not only that the guidelines are met, but that
immediate control steps are enabled that help to provide better security.
1. Mapping Cargo Flow and Identifying Business Partners (directly or
indirectly contracted)
2. Conducting a Threat Assessment focusing on: Terrorism, Contraband
Smuggling, Human Smuggling, Organized Crime, and conditions in a
country/region which may foster such threats and rate threat –
High, Medium, Low
3. Conducting a Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with C-TPAT
Minimum Security Criteria and rate vulnerability – High, Medium,
Low
4. Preparing an Action Plan
5. Documenting How Risk Assessments are Conducted" [12]
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6. Andrew M. Amalfitano
Contingency Planning
Contingency planning is a strategic risk management tool. It allows for flexibility to use a
generic set of plans to respond to unknown and unexpected events which pose a risk to
the business. Success in managing unexpected events requires flexibility. These four
contingency planning elements were found to be positively related to flexibility in
managing risk in the supply chain:
1. "Top management support
2. Resource alignment
3. Level of IT usage
4. Inter-organizational collaboration" [13]
Consideration of contingencies is still a worthwhile action for executives to include
among their strategic mitigation choices.
Conclusion
Studies show that major disruptions to supply chains can dramatically impact the long-
term survivability of businesses. Insurance plans typically cover physical damage and not
the wide variety of modern world disruptive events like volcano eruptions, earthquakes,
high-seas piracy, political unrest, and other unexpected events.
Some companies have found value in joining C-TPAT to help ensure more security in
their supply chain. Others realize that intangibles like the amount of confidence in
supply chain capability can help strengthen or erode management of risks.
Enterprise strategies should include multiple approaches and implement a process that
addresses risk in a way that is flexible and can more aptly handle unexpected
disruptions.
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7. Andrew M. Amalfitano
Citations
[1] Byrt, Frank, (2008). "The Endless Quest for Indestructible Supply Chain". Financial Week.com, Aug
2010. Retrieved 8-5-10:
http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080505/REG/628194365/1003/TOC
[2] Department of Homeland Security, (2010). "C-TPAT: Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism".
Retrieved 8-4-10: http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/trade/cargo_security/ctpat/
[3] Bosman, Ruud, (2006). "The New Supply Chain Challenge: Risk Management in a Global Economy".
Factory Mutual Insurance Company. Retrieve 8-5-10:
http://www.fmglobal.com/pdfs/ChainSupply.pdf
[4] Sikich, Geary. (2008). "The World of Risks and Opportunities". Norwich University MSBC Seminar 4
Lecture Week 8, 2010
[5] Byrt, Ibid
[6] Husdal, Jan, (2009). "Supply Chain Confidence". Husdal.com. Retrieved 8-5-10:
http://www.husdal.com/2009/12/07/supply-chain-confidence/
[7] Husdal, Jan, (2010). "Contingent Flexibility". Husdal.com. Retrieved 8-5-10:
http://www.husdal.com/2010/03/08/contingent-flexibility/
[8] Sikich, Ibid
[9] Diop, Abdoulaye; Hartman, David, and Resrode, Deborah, (2007). "Customs-Trade Partnership Against
Terrorism: Cost/Benefit Survey". Retrieved 8-5-10:
http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/trade/cargo_security/ctpat/what_ctpat/ctpat_cost_survey.ct
t/ctpat_cost_surve.pdf pg 35
[10] Ibid.
[11] Diop, Ibid, 4
[12] Department of Homeland Security, (2010). "C-TPAT: 5 Step Risk Assessment Process Program Guide".
Retrieved 8-4-10:
http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/trade/cargo_security/ctpat/supply_chain/ctpat_assessment.c
tt/ctpat_assessment.pdf
[13] Husdal, Jan, (2010). "Contingent Flexibility". Ibid
Bibliography
Continuity Insights, (2010). "Demand for supply chain insurance grows as a result of the volcanic ash crisis:
Marsh".. Retrieved 8-5-10: http://www.continuitycentral.com/news05155.html
Husal, Jan, (2010). "Risk Disablers". Husdal.com. Retrieved 8-5-10:
http://www.husdal.com/2010/03/03/risk-disablers/
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