The document discusses risk management and preventive maintenance strategies for industrial assets. It covers: - Risk-based inspection approaches to identify critical assets and prioritize maintenance. This can include failure analysis, fitness-for-service assessments, and quantitative life assessments. - Case studies of applying these methods to evaluate issues like creep damage, corrosion rates, microstructural changes, and develop inspection schedules or replacement guidelines. - The TOLKKU toolbox, a customizable solution from VTT for condition monitoring, data analysis, diagnostics and prognostics to support preventive maintenance and decision making. It integrates data from multiple sources to assess risks and remaining useful life.

1. VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND LTD
Risk management based on
proper material selection,
advanced monitoring and
remote maintenance
Jouko Suokas, Executive Vice President
VTT

2. 226/06/2015 2
Outline
Drivers and needs
Background
Risk based inspection (RBI)
FFS assessment
Lifing concepts and case examples
Preventive maintenance – VTT solution (Tolkku toolbox)
Remote maintenance
RAMS analysis
Gas turbine air filter performance evaluation
Concluding remarks

3. 326/06/2015 3
Drivers and needs
 Drivers
 Productivity, efficiency
 Ageing assets, availability and reliability
 HSE targets
 Increased need for
 Critical asset evaluation, risk analysis
 Predicting and managing safe life
 Correct targeting and timing of
maintenance
 Deferring investments

4. 426/06/2015 4
Life Cycle Management
New facility Operation Ageing and
retrofitting
 Conceptualization
 Design phases
 Manufacturing
 Construction and
installation
 Commissioning and
start-up
 Operation and maintenance
 Technical and operational
changes
 Ageing management
 Modernization
 Retrofits
 Investment decisions
Presentation focus

5. 526/06/2015 5
Risk based inspection (RBI)
In refineries/petrochemical industry often aligned to API RP 581
‘Risk-based Inspection Technology’:
 To develop inspection plans for pressurized fixed equipment
 Sections on inspection planning, determining probability of failure (PoF), and
consequence (CoF) modelling
 Focus on impact and benefit from inspections, assumes time-independent
consequences
When critical items have been identified by RBI, VTT can e.g.
 Analyse the criticality, condition and FFS in detail
 Provide quantitative life assessment to support inspection/investment plans
 Provide analysis and guidance on inspections, repairs and material issues

6. 626/06/2015 6
Fitness-for-service (FFS)
Assessment of ageing equipment for continued service
 Why - Equipment in operation is no longer covered by design codes
 Need - Economic run/repair/replace decisions require information on
damage mechanisms and their likelihood
 Challenge - There are many possible damage or degradation
mechanisms which must be considered and identified
 Brittle and ductile fracture, fatigue, corrosion, environmental assisted
cracking and creep at higher temperatures.
 Various FFS assessment codes exist like API, BS, ASME and ANSI
 API RP 579-1/ASME FFS-1 Fitness-For-Service

7. 726/06/2015 7
API RP 579-1/ASME FFS-1 Fitness-For-Service
Assessment levels
Level 1
 Minimum amount of inspection or component information
 Conservative screening - general concurrence with NBIC rules,
 Plant inspection or engineering personnel
Level 2
 More detailed, less conservative with more accurate results based on local stresses and material
properties
 Quantitative damage characterization – size, shape, location, orientation
 Qualified engineering personnel
Level 3
 Most detailed evaluation – requires very detailed inspection and component information
 Analysis procedures are based on material testing and/or numerical analysis techniques such as the
finite element method
 Personnel with expertise in complex FFS assessments

8. 826/06/2015 8
Assessment of time/cycle to next
inspection/investment
 When approaching design life or for life extension
purposes
 After process disturbance (overheating, -loading or
chemical environment)
 When changing process parameters or type of service
Flexible modules depending on needs
 Life estimation based on microstructural changes,
deterministic life assessment
 Probabilistic life assessment, RBI, simulations
Lifetime assessment concepts
AnalysisInspection TestingInitial data Recommendations Documentation
€
€ €
€
Owner benefits from FFS –
at least 10% reduction in
maintenance costs
(Bennet & Mixon 2011)

9. 926/06/2015 9
Lifetime assessment
Input information
 Design, fabrication and maintenance history, QA documentation
 Operational history (T, p, other loads, operating environments, process chemistry)
 Materials (incl. welding, heat treatments etc.) and operating damage mechanisms
(e.g. creep, fatigue, corrosion, wear/erosion, combined mechanisms)
Methods
 Condition assessment by inspection and testing
 Predictive life modelling from combined initial info, measured/modelled material
and component properties, loads, damage progression and critical limits
 Validation based on experimental data
After a year in service
Creep cracks on
7CrMoVTiB10-10 weld
SCC

10. 1026/06/2015 10
Case examples
Illustrating
 Assessment of damage mechanisms
 New lifing concepts
 Benefits of selected technology
 …
 …
Different application areas
 Heat exchangers and reformers
 Reheater
 Welded components
 (Gas turbines)
 …
 …

11. 111126/06/2015
Remaining life
estimates
Thinning rate
• erosion and
corrosion
Creep life
• strain
• rupture
Scale growth rate
• impact on T
Inspection timing
Remaining life at
spec. locations
Operational data compilation
(temp + pressure history, maintenance)
Understanding ageing that results
to damage
• characteristics, mechanisms
• initial and end state
• for stress history
Temperature(°C)
Time (h)
Microstructural state
f(T)  predict temp
Hardness
g(T)  predict temp
Oxide thickness
h(T)  predict temp
Data bases and in-house
models for microstructural
aging, oxidation and
hardness - functions of time
and temperature
Representative
stress and temp
Service
environment
Life management of high temperature components

12. 1226/06/2015 12
 Evaluation of microstructural change, defects and local
composition (HT equipment)
 Performance assessment: creep, impact, hardness…
 Comparison to acceptance limits according to experience
Case: Ageing of heat exchangers and
reformers
Benefits
• Evaluated scope and extent for further operation
• Established needs and timing for repairs or
replacement

13. 1326/06/2015 13
Case - X20 header inspections + modelling + guidelines
Creep damage in X20 header after 135 000 h at 530°C
→ not common → rules for timing of inspections not as
as well established as in case of low alloy steels
• Cavitation evolving to crack growth at saddle
point: 4-year follow-up, extracted for detailed
evaluation
FEA of the branch: predicted damage confirmed
Benefits
• Guidelines for condition-based maintenance
• Material-specific behaviour established

14. 1426/06/2015 14
Ts
Tox
t1 t2 t3 ta
Temperature(°C)
tr
Ts
Tox
t3 ta
Time (h)
Temperature(°C)
tr
Teff
t0
As-new 16Mo3
Predicted +35 000 h
and verified in plantConversion from unknown to manageable equivalent history.
After 185000 h / (465) - 520°C
 Unknown details of thermal history after multiple cycles of operation
+ internal cleaning
 Solution: converted to equivalent history with single cleaning and
prediction from current condition → predicted minimum residual life
of 35 000 hours
Case: Reheater life extension

15. 1526/06/2015 15
 Ni-based superalloy Rene N4 coated with platinum
aluminide coating
 In-service material temperature evaluation based on
microstructural changes
Figure 1: Predicted temperature distribution of the overheated blade.
Case - Degradation in single-crystal gas
turbine blade
Benefits
• New method to evaluate the local metal
temperatures
• Assist to focus maintenance efforts ...

16. 1626/06/2015 16
Miniature testing – ease and improved
reliability for lifetime evaluation
Minature testing → small samples
 Sampling easier, no need to cut tubes ,
no need to extensive weld repairs and heat
treatments → Time and cost savings
 Miniature testing is cheaper that traditional
uniaxial creep testing
 Results are obtained faster
Small punch (SP) test: one sample →
many tests
 Yield and tensile strength
 Impact energy (Charpy-V)
 Fracture toughness (KIC , JIC)
 Creep test
Pneumatic loading
system (push / pull)
based on bellows
technology
Examples of different
sample sizes ; miniature
on the right

17. 17
Preventive maintenance
– VTT solution

18. 1826/06/2015 18
Preventive maintenance – VTT solution:
TOLKKU toolbox
Decision-making requires information. TOLKKU provides tools
for extracting useful information from vast amounts of data
collected from different sources.
T☺lkku

19. 1926/06/2015 19
TOLKKU toolbox - custom solutions
 Varying situations and needs require versatile analysis tools. TOLKKU toolbox
provides building blocks to match current needs, allowing more flexibility than a
software with a fixed set of features.
 Company-wide product development, machine operation, maintenance, and
management decision-making each have specific needs for information. TOLKKU
toolbox provides functionality to cover the whole life times of machines.
 TOLKKU toolbox is a part of VTT's offering for lifetime management facilitating
solutions customized to company needs, such as early detection of faults,
optimizing maintenance plans, monitoring the use profiles of a machine fleet.
Design data
Fault statistics
Measurements
Etc.
Input / Data
Failure risk level
Remaining useful life
How to operate until
next planned service
Etc.
Output / Information
R&D
Machine operator
Control
Service and
maintenance
Utilization

20. 2026/06/2015 20
TOLKKU toolbox: Building blocks for O&M
Measurement
methods
Data acquisition
and transmission
Signal
processing
Diagnostics
methods
0 0.1 0.2 0.3
3
2.4
1.8
1.2
0.6
0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3
Aika [s]
Värähtelykiihtyvyys[m/s2]
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
0
0.004
0.008
0.012
0.016
Taajuus [Hz]
Värähtelykiihtyvyys[m/s2]
Now Time
Interaction of
components
Prognostics
Increased efficiency
Time
Cutting Lifting Moving
PotholeBegining End
Meas.
data Rainflow (tB..tE)
Time at level (tB..tE)
…
Use and load profiles
Spectrometry (SOAP)
Wear particles, etc
Acoustic emission (80 -120 kHz)
Temperature
Vibrations (0 - 10 kHz)
TOLKKU toolbox includes modules for
 Data import
 Data preparation
 Feature extraction
 State recognition
 Load profiles
 Anomaly detection
 Analysis of causality
 Time-frequency analysis
 Analysis of bearings
and gearboxes
 Decision support
 Big data analytics

21. 2126/06/2015 21
TOLKKU toolbox: Continuous improvement
Data from
the whole
fleet
Feature extraction
State identification
Prognostics
Continuous
refining of
computational
models
Maintenance
plan
optimization
Exploratory
data analysis to
gain new insight
Service
data

22. 2226/06/2015 22
TOLKKU toolbox: Industrial perspective
The TOLKKU project gave us tools for collecting, organising, and
analysing huge amounts of data in a very short time. TOLKKU
tools are a powerful package for finding out the real cause of
failure (root cause). The analyses result in the repair being
carried out exactly on the right part of the machine. Machine
down time and service visits are minimised.
Bronto Skylift Oy Abj
The TOLKKU project has created a practical and applicable
data analysis toolkit that has already shown some promising
results in use. We are very pleased with the way a project that
is essentially research-oriented has been so well focused on
the industrial needs.
Konecranes Oy

23. 23
Remote maintenance with
virtual and Augmented
Reality

24. 2426/06/2015 24
Remote operation of maintenance
implementing virtual and augmented
technology

25. 2526/06/2015 25
Manual maintenance work support with virtual
and Augmented Reality creates safe, reliable
and effective maintenance tasks
Courtesy of Delta Cygni Labs Ltd, Finland

26. 2626/06/2015 26
Assembly work assisted with Augmented
Reality: measurable improvements
Image courtesy of supakitmod at FreeDigitalPhotos.net

27. 2726/06/2015 27
Assembly work assisted with Augmented
Reality (AR): measurable improvements

28. 28
Setting RAMS requirements
for suppliers

29. 2926/06/2015 29
The design phase lays the foundation for
RAMS performance - Case Total Train-Life
Management
 Alstom was challenged to develop a full life cycle service offering to a new line of
the London subway network.
 Subway trains are planned for 30 years service time and the construction time is two
years
 The value of life cycle services across 30 years of service is 3 - 4 times the
aquisition cost of the trains
 The development of the Total Train-Life Management offering lead the
manufacturing company to think about the impacts of system reliability, availability
and maintainability to the life cycle cost and performance
The machinery manufacturer made over 250 design
changes and modifications in order to make the trains
easier to operate and maintain
Source: Davies A.(2004). Industrial and Corporate Change. Vol 13, Nr. 5, pp. 727-756

30. 303026/06/2015
Transferring customer needs to RAMS
requirements - Case Pesmel Oy
Setting up a challenge
 Pesmel Oy needed support to fulfil the RAMS process
requirements set by an international steel company
Solution
 VTT helped Pesmel to understand the meaning and
implications of final customer´s RAMS requirements
as design criteria and manufacturing cost items.
Benefit
 The final customer in steel industry received a
warehouse system that met their requirements
and had a profound documentation of
RAMS aspects.

31. 31
Gas turbine inlet air filter
performance evaluation

32. 3226/06/2015 32
Gas turbine inlet air filter performance
evaluation
Filter performance evaluation on site
 In land, on shore and off-shore
Tailored laboratory tests
 Special expertise on wet condition evaluation
 Chemical analysis of penetrated particles
Filter material and filter development
 Mechanical fiber filters
 Electrical filtration systems
References
GE Energy Products France SNC • Solar Turbines Inc • Donaldson • AAF •
Camfil • W.L.GORE & Associates GmbH • Northern Technical L.L.C. •
Eagle Filters • Ahlström Oy
Supply duct
(to be connected to the
ventilation system)
Material samples
High speed fan
Flow measurement
& control

33. 33
Concluding remarks

34. 3426/06/2015 34
Concluding remarks 1/2
 Accidents can be prevented - risk-based inspection and
maintenance provide ways for safe and economically
viable operation
 Lifetime assessment help owners maintain the integrity
of assets and ensure the continued reliability of plant operation
 Key issue in predicting and managing safe life is the
identification of critical assets, active damage mechanisms
and their likelihood
 Novel remaining lifetime assessment techniques adapt
to a range of operating conditions, materials and
damage mechanisms and provide safe but not unduly
conservative predictions.
 Maintenance on-demand is more cost efficient than fixed
intervals. Correct focussing and timing reduce costs, save
time and minimise impacts on HSE.

35. 3526/06/2015 35
Concluding remarks 2/2
 Decision making requires information - Extracting useful
information from data for accurate and timely decision
making is a growing challenge.
 Newest condition monitoring systems utilising software
toolboxes and data processing enable e.g. to detect
overloads and wear of the machine/process parts prior
failure, thus open new possibilities for O&M.
 Role of simulation is increasing. Personnel can be trained
and production process optimized based on online
measurements and the respective simulators, both of which
increase safety and productivity.
 Proper design, remote operation, monitoring and
maintenance with implementing new advanced information
technology is an emerging field and has proved its
applicability in various hazardous applications

36. 36
TECHNOLOGY FOR BUSINESS