Structural breaks, unit root tests and long time series
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Accounting for the presence of structural breaks is crucial while doing time series analysis, otherwise can lead to grossly misleading conclusions
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Structural breaks in data can lead to multiple regression relationships that need to be identified and controlled for. A first step is to plot the variables and look for any displacements over time which could indicate a structural break. Adding a single dummy variable can help account for an identified break based on the historical context, but having multiple dummies makes the results difficult to interpret. Dummies should only be used to represent breaks that can be reasonably explained by the background of the time series.
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This document outlines the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique. It begins with the basic principles of GMM, including that it uses theoretical relations that parameters should satisfy to choose parameter estimates. It then discusses estimating GMM, hypothesis testing with GMM, and extensions such as using GMM with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The document provides details on how population moments relate to sample moments, and how method of moments estimation and instrumental variables estimation can both be viewed as special cases of GMM. It concludes by explaining how the generalized method of moments estimator works by minimizing a weighted distance between sample and population moments.
Econometric modelling
The document discusses various econometric modeling techniques including regression equations, cointegration, error correction models, vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling, and vector error correction models (VECM). It explains that regression equations can produce spurious results if the data is non-stationary, and that cointegration exists if the residuals from a regression equation are stationary. Error correction models specify the short-run relationship that maintains the long-run equilibrium between cointegrated variables. VAR models express current values of variables as functions of past values, while VECMs are VARs in first differences that incorporate the long-run cointegrating relationships between variables.
Linear Regression
This document is an introduction to statistical machine learning presented by Christfried Webers from NICTA and The Australian National University. It discusses linear basis function models and how to perform maximum likelihood and least squares estimation. Specifically, it shows that maximizing the likelihood is equivalent to minimizing the sum-of-squares error, and that the maximum likelihood solution is given by the pseudo-inverse of the design matrix. It also examines the geometry of least squares and the bias-variance decomposition.
Granger Causality
This document discusses Granger causality and how to test for it. It provides the following key points:
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2) To test for Granger causality, autoregressive models are developed with and without the variable being tested, and an F-test or t-test is used to see if adding the variable significantly lowers the residuals.
3) The document applies this to test if changes in loans Granger cause changes in deposits using quarterly U.S. financial
Multiple linear regression
This document discusses multiple linear regression analysis. It begins by defining a multiple regression equation that describes the relationship between a response variable and two or more explanatory variables. It notes that multiple regression allows prediction of a response using more than one predictor variable. The document outlines key elements of multiple regression including visualization of relationships, statistical significance testing, and evaluating model fit. It provides examples of interpreting multiple regression output and using the technique to predict outcomes.
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Similar to Structural breaks, unit root tests and long time series
Discussion 6.docx
The document discusses discretionary fiscal policy during recessions caused by fundamental shocks that lower the steady state level of production and consumption. It argues that households, being risk averse and non-cooperative, will not "jump" their consumption to the new efficient path but instead follow a Pareto inefficient path with continuously falling consumption. The best policy option in this scenario is for the government to increase consumption through fiscal policy until demand meets current production levels, maintaining this for a long period. This will lead to large government debts but they can be sustained if taxes are appropriately increased in the future.
Discussion 6.docx
This document discusses whether governments should intervene fiscally during recessions and how. It analyzes a recession caused by an upward shift in the rate of time preference (RTP), which changes the steady state downward. Households would normally "jump" consumption to the new steady state path to maintain efficiency, but they prefer smooth consumption. As a result, they choose an inefficient path with high unemployment. The government has three options: do nothing, increase spending, or cut taxes. Increasing spending to match demand with current production for a long period is argued to be the best approach, despite large accumulating debts that can be sustained through future tax increases.
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene
in a Recession and, If So, How?
Harashima, Taiji
Kanazawa Seiryo University
2 April 2017
Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78053/
MPRA Paper No. 78053, posted 31 Mar 2017 09:03 UTC
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene in a Recession and, If So, How?
Taiji HARASHIMA*
April, 2017
Abstract
The validity of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession will differ according to the cause and
mechanism of recession. In this paper, discretionary fiscal policy in a recession caused by a
fundamental shock that changes the steady state downwards is examined. In such a recession,
households need to discontinuously increase consumption to a point on the saddle path to
maintain Pareto efficiency. However, they will not “jump” consumption in this manner and
instead will choose a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient path” because they dislike
unsmooth and discontinuous consumption and behave strategically. The paper concludes that
increasing government consumption until demand meets the present level of production and
maintaining this fiscal policy for a long period is the best option. Consequent government debts
can be sustainable even if they become extremely large.
JEL Classification code: E20, E32, E62, H20, H30, H63
Keywords: Discretionary Fiscal policy; Recession; Government consumption; Government
debts; Pareto inefficiency; Time preference
*Correspondence: Taiji HARASHIMA, Kanazawa Seiryo University, 10-1 Goshomachi-Ushi,
Kanazawa-shi, Ishikawa, 920-8620, Japan.
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
1
1 INTRODUCTION
Discretionary fiscal policy has been studied from many perspectives since the era of Keynes
(e.g., Keynes, 1936; Kopcke et al., 2006; Chari et al., 2009; Farmer, 2009; Alesina, 2012;
Benhabib et al., 2014). An important issue is whether a government should intervene fiscally in
a recession, and if so, how. The answer will differ according to the cause and mechanism of
recession. Particularly, it will be different depending on whether “disequilibrium” is generated.
The concept of disequilibrium is, however, controversial and therefore arguments continue even
now about the use of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession. In this paper, the concept of
disequilibrium is not used, but instead the concept of a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient
path” is used.
Recessions are generated by various shocks (e.g., Rebelo, 2005; Blanchard, 2009;
Ireland, 2011; Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe, 2012; McGrattan and Prescott, 2014; Hall, 2016).
Some fundamental shocks will change the steady state, and if the steady state is changed
downwards (i.e., to lower levels of production and consumption), households must change the
consumption path to one that d ...
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene
in a Recession and, If So, How?
Harashima, Taiji
Kanazawa Seiryo University
2 April 2017
Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78053/
MPRA Paper No. 78053, posted 31 Mar 2017 09:03 UTC
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene in a Recession and, If So, How?
Taiji HARASHIMA*
April, 2017
Abstract
The validity of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession will differ according to the cause and
mechanism of recession. In this paper, discretionary fiscal policy in a recession caused by a
fundamental shock that changes the steady state downwards is examined. In such a recession,
households need to discontinuously increase consumption to a point on the saddle path to
maintain Pareto efficiency. However, they will not “jump” consumption in this manner and
instead will choose a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient path” because they dislike
unsmooth and discontinuous consumption and behave strategically. The paper concludes that
increasing government consumption until demand meets the present level of production and
maintaining this fiscal policy for a long period is the best option. Consequent government debts
can be sustainable even if they become extremely large.
JEL Classification code: E20, E32, E62, H20, H30, H63
Keywords: Discretionary Fiscal policy; Recession; Government consumption; Government
debts; Pareto inefficiency; Time preference
*Correspondence: Taiji HARASHIMA, Kanazawa Seiryo University, 10-1 Goshomachi-Ushi,
Kanazawa-shi, Ishikawa, 920-8620, Japan.
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
1
1 INTRODUCTION
Discretionary fiscal policy has been studied from many perspectives since the era of Keynes
(e.g., Keynes, 1936; Kopcke et al., 2006; Chari et al., 2009; Farmer, 2009; Alesina, 2012;
Benhabib et al., 2014). An important issue is whether a government should intervene fiscally in
a recession, and if so, how. The answer will differ according to the cause and mechanism of
recession. Particularly, it will be different depending on whether “disequilibrium” is generated.
The concept of disequilibrium is, however, controversial and therefore arguments continue even
now about the use of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession. In this paper, the concept of
disequilibrium is not used, but instead the concept of a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient
path” is used.
Recessions are generated by various shocks (e.g., Rebelo, 2005; Blanchard, 2009;
Ireland, 2011; Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe, 2012; McGrattan and Prescott, 2014; Hall, 2016).
Some fundamental shocks will change the steady state, and if the steady state is changed
downwards (i.e., to lower levels of production and consumption), households must change the
consumption path to one that d.
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene
in a Recession and, If So, How?
Harashima, Taiji
Kanazawa Seiryo University
2 April 2017
Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78053/
MPRA Paper No. 78053, posted 31 Mar 2017 09:03 UTC
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene in a Recession and, If So, How?
Taiji HARASHIMA*
April, 2017
Abstract
The validity of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession will differ according to the cause and
mechanism of recession. In this paper, discretionary fiscal policy in a recession caused by a
fundamental shock that changes the steady state downwards is examined. In such a recession,
households need to discontinuously increase consumption to a point on the saddle path to
maintain Pareto efficiency. However, they will not “jump” consumption in this manner and
instead will choose a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient path” because they dislike
unsmooth and discontinuous consumption and behave strategically. The paper concludes that
increasing government consumption until demand meets the present level of production and
maintaining this fiscal policy for a long period is the best option. Consequent government debts
can be sustainable even if they become extremely large.
JEL Classification code: E20, E32, E62, H20, H30, H63
Keywords: Discretionary Fiscal policy; Recession; Government consumption; Government
debts; Pareto inefficiency; Time preference
*Correspondence: Taiji HARASHIMA, Kanazawa Seiryo University, 10-1 Goshomachi-Ushi,
Kanazawa-shi, Ishikawa, 920-8620, Japan.
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
1
1 INTRODUCTION
Discretionary fiscal policy has been studied from many perspectives since the era of Keynes
(e.g., Keynes, 1936; Kopcke et al., 2006; Chari et al., 2009; Farmer, 2009; Alesina, 2012;
Benhabib et al., 2014). An important issue is whether a government should intervene fiscally in
a recession, and if so, how. The answer will differ according to the cause and mechanism of
recession. Particularly, it will be different depending on whether “disequilibrium” is generated.
The concept of disequilibrium is, however, controversial and therefore arguments continue even
now about the use of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession. In this paper, the concept of
disequilibrium is not used, but instead the concept of a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient
path” is used.
Recessions are generated by various shocks (e.g., Rebelo, 2005; Blanchard, 2009;
Ireland, 2011; Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe, 2012; McGrattan and Prescott, 2014; Hall, 2016).
Some fundamental shocks will change the steady state, and if the steady state is changed
downwards (i.e., to lower levels of production and consumption), households must change the
consumption path to one that d.
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene
in a Recession and, If So, How?
Harashima, Taiji
Kanazawa Seiryo University
2 April 2017
Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78053/
MPRA Paper No. 78053, posted 31 Mar 2017 09:03 UTC
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene in a Recession and, If So, How?
Taiji HARASHIMA*
April, 2017
Abstract
The validity of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession will differ according to the cause and
mechanism of recession. In this paper, discretionary fiscal policy in a recession caused by a
fundamental shock that changes the steady state downwards is examined. In such a recession,
households need to discontinuously increase consumption to a point on the saddle path to
maintain Pareto efficiency. However, they will not “jump” consumption in this manner and
instead will choose a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient path” because they dislike
unsmooth and discontinuous consumption and behave strategically. The paper concludes that
increasing government consumption until demand meets the present level of production and
maintaining this fiscal policy for a long period is the best option. Consequent government debts
can be sustainable even if they become extremely large.
JEL Classification code: E20, E32, E62, H20, H30, H63
Keywords: Discretionary Fiscal policy; Recession; Government consumption; Government
debts; Pareto inefficiency; Time preference
*Correspondence: Taiji HARASHIMA, Kanazawa Seiryo University, 10-1 Goshomachi-Ushi,
Kanazawa-shi, Ishikawa, 920-8620, Japan.
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
1
1 INTRODUCTION
Discretionary fiscal policy has been studied from many perspectives since the era of Keynes
(e.g., Keynes, 1936; Kopcke et al., 2006; Chari et al., 2009; Farmer, 2009; Alesina, 2012;
Benhabib et al., 2014). An important issue is whether a government should intervene fiscally in
a recession, and if so, how. The answer will differ according to the cause and mechanism of
recession. Particularly, it will be different depending on whether “disequilibrium” is generated.
The concept of disequilibrium is, however, controversial and therefore arguments continue even
now about the use of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession. In this paper, the concept of
disequilibrium is not used, but instead the concept of a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient
path” is used.
Recessions are generated by various shocks (e.g., Rebelo, 2005; Blanchard, 2009;
Ireland, 2011; Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe, 2012; McGrattan and Prescott, 2014; Hall, 2016).
Some fundamental shocks will change the steady state, and if the steady state is changed
downwards (i.e., to lower levels of production and consumption), households must change the
consumption path to one that d.
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene
in a Recession and, If So, How?
Harashima, Taiji
Kanazawa Seiryo University
2 April 2017
Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78053/
MPRA Paper No. 78053, posted 31 Mar 2017 09:03 UTC
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene in a Recession and, If So, How?
Taiji HARASHIMA*
April, 2017
Abstract
The validity of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession will differ according to the cause and
mechanism of recession. In this paper, discretionary fiscal policy in a recession caused by a
fundamental shock that changes the steady state downwards is examined. In such a recession,
households need to discontinuously increase consumption to a point on the saddle path to
maintain Pareto efficiency. However, they will not “jump” consumption in this manner and
instead will choose a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient path” because they dislike
unsmooth and discontinuous consumption and behave strategically. The paper concludes that
increasing government consumption until demand meets the present level of production and
maintaining this fiscal policy for a long period is the best option. Consequent government debts
can be sustainable even if they become extremely large.
JEL Classification code: E20, E32, E62, H20, H30, H63
Keywords: Discretionary Fiscal policy; Recession; Government consumption; Government
debts; Pareto inefficiency; Time preference
*Correspondence: Taiji HARASHIMA, Kanazawa Seiryo University, 10-1 Goshomachi-Ushi,
Kanazawa-shi, Ishikawa, 920-8620, Japan.
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
1
1 INTRODUCTION
Discretionary fiscal policy has been studied from many perspectives since the era of Keynes
(e.g., Keynes, 1936; Kopcke et al., 2006; Chari et al., 2009; Farmer, 2009; Alesina, 2012;
Benhabib et al., 2014). An important issue is whether a government should intervene fiscally in
a recession, and if so, how. The answer will differ according to the cause and mechanism of
recession. Particularly, it will be different depending on whether “disequilibrium” is generated.
The concept of disequilibrium is, however, controversial and therefore arguments continue even
now about the use of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession. In this paper, the concept of
disequilibrium is not used, but instead the concept of a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient
path” is used.
Recessions are generated by various shocks (e.g., Rebelo, 2005; Blanchard, 2009;
Ireland, 2011; Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe, 2012; McGrattan and Prescott, 2014; Hall, 2016).
Some fundamental shocks will change the steady state, and if the steady state is changed
downwards (i.e., to lower levels of production and consumption), households must change the
consumption path to one that d.
Munich personal re p ec archiveshould a government fiscally
- The document examines whether a government should intervene fiscally during a recession caused by an upward shift in the rate of time preference (RTP).
- When the RTP increases, the steady state of the economy shifts downward, requiring households to adjust their consumption path. However, households will not "jump" consumption to the new efficient path due to risk aversion and wanting smooth consumption over time.
- This results in households choosing a "Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient path" rather than the efficient path, leading to increased unemployment during the recession. The document evaluates whether the government should intervene through increasing spending, cutting taxes, or not intervening at all.
Et tu draghi final
This document discusses trends and reversals in financial markets and the economy. It notes that while trend reversals create fear, they are natural and inevitable. The key is understanding the dominant trend versus short-term volatility. It also discusses how central banks have intervened in markets to smooth economic cycles, but that their policies may no longer be appropriate given high debt levels and slower growth. While recent trend reversals in markets have been correlated, the document argues they will likely revert back to the dominant downward trend.
Gust Lopez Salido
This document summarizes a research paper that develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to explain how monetary policy affects risk in financial markets and the macroeconomy. The key feature of the model is that asset and goods markets are segmented because it is costly for households to transfer funds between the markets. The model generates endogenous movements in risk as the fraction of households that rebalance their portfolios varies over time in response to real and monetary shocks. Simulation results indicate the model can account for evidence that monetary policy easing reduces equity premiums and helps explain the response of stock prices to monetary shocks.
Liquidity trap
- A liquidity trap is a situation where the short-term nominal interest rate is zero, meaning that increasing the money supply has no effect on output or prices according to traditional Keynesian theory.
- Modern theory argues that monetary policy can still be effective even at zero interest rates by managing expectations about future money supply levels when interest rates rise above zero again.
- For monetary policy to be effective in a liquidity trap, central banks must commit to maintaining lower future interest rates once deflationary shocks subside in order to stimulate expectations about future money supply levels and interest rates.
Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in A Potential Zero Lower Bound Framework
Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in A Potential Zero Lower Bound FrameworkInternational Journal of Economics and Financial Research
In a recessionary and deflationary framework, the discretionary monetary policy cannot be optimal when the interest rate is already near zero and cannot decrease anymore. Indeed, when the Zero Lower Bound is binding, a negative demand shock implies a decrease in the current economic activity level and deflationary tensions, which cannot be avoided by monetary policy as the nominal interest rate can no longer decrease. The economic literature has then often recommended to target an inflation rate sufficiently above zero in order to avoid the dangers of this Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) constraint. On the contrary, provided the ZLB is not binding, monetary policy can efficiently contribute to the stabilization of economic activity and inflation in case of demand shocks. The variation in interest rates is then all the more accentuated as interest rate smoothing is a more negligible goal for the central bank. The contribution of our paper is to provide a clear analytical New-Keynesian framework sustaining these results. Besides, our analytical modelling also shows that even if the ZLB is currently not binding, the central bank should take into account the dangers of a potential future binding ZLB. Indeed, the interest rate should be decreased the fastest as a negative demand shock and the possibility to reach the ZLB is anticipated for a nearest future period. Our paper demonstrates the necessity of such a ‘pre-emptive’ active monetary policy even in a discretionary framework, which has the advantage to be time-consistent and to be in conformity with the empirical practices of independent central banks. We don’t have to make the strong hypothesis of a commitment monetary policy intended to affect private agents’ expectations in order to demonstrate the optimality of such a pre-emptive monetary policy.Question 1Response 1Development inside and out effects t.docx
Question 1:
Response 1:
Development inside and out effects the entire country's economy. It impacts the managing body, regardless the clearly irrelevant subtleties in the average person's dependably life. Both a conditions and clear deferred results of how the economy is getting along, swelling has the two its fans and spoilers. Distinctive envisions that particular degrees of swelling are helpful for a prospering economy, yet that progressively critical rates raise concerns. It can degrade the money basically and, at logically lamentable, has been a key part to subsidences.
Swelling, as referenced, is the rate a worth ascensions, and fundamentally how much the dollar is worth at a given moment concerning checking. The idea behind swelling being an impact for good in the economy is that a reasonable enough rate can nudge financial movement without debasing the money so much that it ends up being basically vain (Kohn, 2006).
Swelling can in like manner falter from asset for asset. Subordinate upon the season, the expense of gas could go up independently from with everything considered headway as it routinely does as summer moves close. In reality, there is even a term - focus improvement - for swelling that parts in everything except for sustenance and imperativeness (gas and oil), as these regions have separate factors that add to them. There are a wide degree of sorts of swelling, subordinate upon what remarkable is being viewed comparatively as what the development rate truly is by all accounts. For example, what happens if the swelling rate is well over the Fed's normal goal? At a higher rate, yet still in the single digits, that is known as walking swelling. It is seen as concerning yet sensible (Ball, 2006).
Swelling is generally depicted reliant on its rate and causes. By and large, Inflation happens in an economy when vitality for thing and experiences outmaneuvers the supply of yield. in this manner, clarifications behind Inflation have different sides, the intrigue side and supply side. The widely inclusive activity of hazard premiums in driving enlargement pay over the scope of advancing years is dependable with secured budgetary improvement and inside and out oblige cash related procedure events in the moved economies. The degree for further fitting budgetary enabling seen with money related stars seems to have declined amidst the enough low advance charges and gigantic monetary records of national banks (Bodie, 2016).
In relentless time, the correspondence of perils has wound up being constantly phenomenal, the general point of view has lit up, and money related conditions have engaged on net. With the work superstar proceeding to reinforce, and GDP improvement expected to keep up a vital good ways from back in the consequent quarter, it likely will be fitting soon to change the affiliation supports rate. Likewise, if the economy propels as shown by the SEP concentrate way, the affiliation supports rate will probably app ...
Module 4 - SLPRESPONSIBILITY ACCOUNTING FOR COST, PROFIT AND INV.docx
Module 4 - SLP
RESPONSIBILITY ACCOUNTING FOR COST, PROFIT AND INVESTMENT CENTERS
The following data pertain to the operating revenues and expenses for California, Inc. for 20XX.
Los Angeles
(LA) Segment
San Francisco
(SF) Segment
Total
Sales
$180,000
$360,000
$540,000
Variable expenses
96,000
240,000
336,000
Direct fixed expenses
24,000
30,000
54,000
Indirect fixed expenses
72,000
Assets (investment) used to generate operating income for the two segments are shown below.
Los Angeles
Segment
San Francisco
Segment
Assets directly used by and identified with the segment
$180,000
$360,000
a. Prepare a segmented income statement in good format showing the contribution margin of each segment, the contribution to indirect expenses of each segment, and the total income of California, Inc.
b. Determine the return on investment for evaluating (1) the earning power of the entire company and (2) the performance of each segment.
c. Comment on the results of part (b).
SLP Assignment Expectations
Show computations in good format and explain answers as required. Excel is a great tool to make computations and present financial information in an easy to understand format. Write comments below the computations in Excel. Submit only the Excel file. Both content and the clarity of the presentation will be evaluated for grading purposes.
MPRA
Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene
in a Recession and, If So, How?
Taiji Harashima
Kanazawa Seiryo University
2 April 2017
Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78053/
MPRA Paper No. 78053, posted 31 March 2017 09:03 UTC
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78053/
Should a Government Fiscally Intervene in a Recession and, If So, How?
Taiji HARASHIMA*
April, 2017
Abstract
The validity of discretionary fiscal policy in a recession will differ according to the cause and
mechanism of recession. In this paper, discretionary fiscal policy in a recession caused by a
fundamental shock that changes the steady state downwards is examined. In such a recession,
households need to discontinuously increase consumption to a point on the saddle path to
maintain Pareto efficiency. However, they will not “jump” consumption in this manner and
instead will choose a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient path” because they dislike
unsmooth and discontinuous consumption and behave strategically. The paper concludes that
increasing government consumption until demand meets the present level of production and
maintaining this fiscal policy for a long period is the best option. Consequent government debts
can be sustainable even if they become extremely large.
JEL Classification code: E20, E32, E62, H20, H30, H63
Keywords: Discretionary Fiscal policy; Recession; Government consumption; Government
debts; Pareto inefficiency; Time preference
*Correspon ...
Modeling Volatility and Daily Exchange Rate Movement in Nigeria
Modeling Volatility and Daily Exchange Rate Movement in NigeriaInternational Journal of Economics and Financial Research
This document summarizes a study that modeled volatility and daily exchange rate movement between the Nigerian naira and US dollar from January 2001 to May 2019. The results found that exchange rate volatility is positively related to returns and persistent over time. It was also discovered that negative news produces more volatility than positive news of equal magnitude, indicating an asymmetric or "leverage" effect. The researchers recommend that the Central Bank of Nigeria intervene more actively to reduce excess volatility between the currencies.Thesis_main
This document discusses the mathematics behind the Phillips curve and different monetary policy approaches. It summarizes an initial model of the Phillips curve that assumes expected inflation equals actual inflation and a constant monetary policy by the central bank. This initial model results in periodic behavior of unemployment and inflation. The document then introduces the idea of a variable monetary policy where the central bank adapts its policy based on unemployment and inflation levels. This makes the relationship between monetary policy and the Phillips curve nonlinear.
2015 CLRS - Reserving in High Inflation
Reserving in High Inflation.
General Considerations by Alejandra Nolibos
Specific example by Alejandro Ortega
Presented at CLRS in Atlanta, September 11,2015
Argentina Auto Case Study
Cerra
The paper examines how real exchange rate volatility affects productivity growth and how this relationship depends on a country's level of financial development. It finds that the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth varies according to a country's financial development - volatility has a more negative impact in countries with lower financial development. The authors develop a theoretical model to explain this finding, where financial development determines firms' ability to finance innovation costs during exchange rate fluctuations. However, some comments note issues with the empirical specifications and question aspects of linking the model to the empirical results.
Intermarket analysis
The document discusses intermarket analysis, which examines the correlations between stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. In inflationary environments, stocks and bonds are positively correlated, while bonds and commodities and the US dollar and commodities are inversely correlated. In deflationary environments, stocks and bonds become inversely correlated. Understanding these intermarket relationships can help analysts determine the stage of the economic cycle and select appropriate sectors to invest in.
Watch newsletter nov2014
This document discusses the concept of "black swans" and economic forecasting. It begins by explaining the origin of the term "black swan" and how Nassim Taleb later used it to describe rare events with disproportionate impacts. It then discusses challenges with economic analysis and forecasting due to lack of data and uncertainties. The rest of the document focuses on analyzing past recessions and economic cycles, challenges with the recent recovery, issues around credit growth and deleveraging, and the importance of considering many interrelated factors when developing economic forecasts. It also describes the machine learning techniques and models used by the company discussed in the document to generate their economic forecasts.
Similar to Structural breaks, unit root tests and long time series (20)
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich Personal RePEc ArchiveShould a Government Fiscally .docx
Munich personal re p ec archiveshould a government fiscally
Munich personal re p ec archiveshould a government fiscally
Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in A Potential Zero Lower Bound Framework
Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in A Potential Zero Lower Bound Framework
Question 1Response 1Development inside and out effects t.docx
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一比一原版(UCSF文凭证书)旧金山分校毕业证如何办理
毕业原版【微信:176555708】【(UCSF毕业证书)旧金山分校毕业证】【微信:176555708】成绩单、外壳、offer、留信学历认证（永久存档真实可查）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路），我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同机器制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信176555708】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信176555708】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析）
2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
一比一原版(爱大毕业证书)爱丁堡大学毕业证如何办理
毕业原版【微信:41543339】【(爱大毕业证书)爱丁堡大学毕业证】【微信:41543339】成绩单、外壳、offer、留信学历认证（永久存档真实可查）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路），我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同机器制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信41543339】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信41543339】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析）
2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
一比一原版(UO毕业证)渥太华大学毕业证如何办理
UO毕业证录取书【微信95270640】购买（渥太华大学毕业证成绩单硕士学历）Q微信95270640代办UO学历认证留信网伪造渥太华大学学位证书精仿渥太华大学本科/硕士文凭证书补办渥太华大学 diplomaoffer,Transcript购买渥太华大学毕业证成绩单购买UO假毕业证学位证书购买伪造渥太华大学文凭证书学位证书,专业办理雅思、托福成绩单，学生ID卡，在读证明，海外各大学offer录取通知书，毕业证书，成绩单，文凭等材料:1:1完美还原毕业证、offer录取通知书、学生卡等各种在读或毕业材料的防伪工艺（包括 烫金、烫银、钢印、底纹、凹凸版、水印、防伪光标、热敏防伪、文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感光标）学校原版上有的工艺我们一样不会少，不论是老版本还是最新版本，都能保证最高程度还原，力争完美以求让所有同学都能享受到完美的品质服务。
文凭办理流程：
1客户提供办理信息：姓名生日专业学位毕业时间等（如信息不确定可以咨询顾问：微信95270640我们有专业老师帮你查询）；
2开始安排制作毕业证成绩单电子图；
3毕业证成绩单电子版做好以后发送给您确认；
4毕业证成绩单电子版您确认信息无误之后安排制作成品；
5成品做好拍照或者视频给您确认；
6快递给客户（国内顺丰国外DHLUPS等快读邮寄）。
7完成交易删除客户资料
高精端提供以下服务：
一：渥太华大学渥太华大学毕业证文凭证书全套材料从防伪到印刷水印底纹到钢印烫金
二：真实使馆认证（留学人员回国证明）使馆存档
三：真实教育部认证教育部存档教育部留服网站可查
四：留信认证留学生信息网站可查
五：与学校颁发的相关证件1:1纸质尺寸制定（定期向各大院校毕业生购买最新版本毕,业证成绩单保证您拿到的是鲁昂大学内部最新版本毕业证成绩单微信95270640）
A.为什么留学生需要操作留信认证?
留信认证全称全国留学生信息服务网认证,隶属于北京中科院。①留信认证门槛条件更低,费用更美丽,并且包过,完单周期短,效率高②留信认证虽然不能去国企,但是一般的公司都没有问题,因为国内很多公司连基本的留学生学历认证都不了解。这对于留学生来说,这就比自己光拿一个证书更有说服力,因为留学学历可以在留信网站上进行查询!
B.为什么我们提供的毕业证成绩单具有使用价值？
查询留服认证是国内鉴别留学生海外学历的唯一途径但认证只是个体行为不是所有留学生都操作所以没有办理认证的留学生的学历在国内也是查询不到的他们也仅仅只有一张文凭。所以这时候我们提供的和学校颁发的一模一样的毕业证成绩单就有了使用价值。只硕大的蛇皮袋手里拎着长铁钩正站在门口朝黑色的屋内张望不好坏人小偷山娃一怔却也灵机一动立马仰起头双手拢在嘴边朝楼上大喊：“爸爸爸——有人找——那人一听朝山娃尴尬地笑笑悻悻地走了山娃立马“嘭的一声将铁门锁死心却咚咚地乱跳当山娃跟父亲说起这事时父亲很吃惊抚摸着山娃的头说还好醒得及时要不家早被人掏空了到时连电视也没得看啰不过父亲还是夸山娃能临危不乱随机应变有胆有谋山娃笑笑说那都是书上学的看童话和小说时多
一比一原版(UMN文凭证书)明尼苏达大学毕业证如何办理
毕业原版【微信:176555708】【(UMN毕业证书)明尼苏达大学毕业证】【微信:176555708】成绩单、外壳、offer、留信学历认证（永久存档真实可查）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路），我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同机器制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信176555708】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信176555708】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析）
2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
End-to-end pipeline agility - Berlin Buzzwords 2024
We describe how we achieve high change agility in data engineering by eliminating the fear of breaking downstream data pipelines through end-to-end pipeline testing, and by using schema metaprogramming to safely eliminate boilerplate involved in changes that affect whole pipelines.
A quick poll on agility in changing pipelines from end to end indicated a huge span in capabilities. For the question "How long time does it take for all downstream pipelines to be adapted to an upstream change," the median response was 6 months, but some respondents could do it in less than a day. When quantitative data engineering differences between the best and worst are measured, the span is often 100x-1000x, sometimes even more.
A long time ago, we suffered at Spotify from fear of changing pipelines due to not knowing what the impact might be downstream. We made plans for a technical solution to test pipelines end-to-end to mitigate that fear, but the effort failed for cultural reasons. We eventually solved this challenge, but in a different context. In this presentation we will describe how we test full pipelines effectively by manipulating workflow orchestration, which enables us to make changes in pipelines without fear of breaking downstream.
Making schema changes that affect many jobs also involves a lot of toil and boilerplate. Using schema-on-read mitigates some of it, but has drawbacks since it makes it more difficult to detect errors early. We will describe how we have rejected this tradeoff by applying schema metaprogramming, eliminating boilerplate but keeping the protection of static typing, thereby further improving agility to quickly modify data pipelines without fear.
STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...
"Join us for STATATHON, a dynamic 2-day event dedicated to exploring statistical knowledge and its real-world applications. From theory to practice, participants engage in intensive learning sessions, workshops, and challenges, fostering a deeper understanding of statistical methodologies and their significance in various fields."
Learn SQL from basic queries to Advance queries
Dive into the world of data analysis with our comprehensive guide on mastering SQL! This presentation offers a practical approach to learning SQL, focusing on real-world applications and hands-on practice. Whether you're a beginner or looking to sharpen your skills, this guide provides the tools you need to extract, analyze, and interpret data effectively.
Key Highlights:
Foundations of SQL: Understand the basics of SQL, including data retrieval, filtering, and aggregation.
Advanced Queries: Learn to craft complex queries to uncover deep insights from your data.
Data Trends and Patterns: Discover how to identify and interpret trends and patterns in your datasets.
Practical Examples: Follow step-by-step examples to apply SQL techniques in real-world scenarios.
Actionable Insights: Gain the skills to derive actionable insights that drive informed decision-making.
Join us on this journey to enhance your data analysis capabilities and unlock the full potential of SQL. Perfect for data enthusiasts, analysts, and anyone eager to harness the power of data!
#DataAnalysis #SQL #LearningSQL #DataInsights #DataScience #Analytics
Experts live - Improving user adoption with AI
Bekijk de slides van onze sessie Enhancing Modern Workplace Efficiency op Experts Live 2024.
一比一原版(GWU,GW文凭证书)乔治·华盛顿大学毕业证如何办理
毕业原版【微信:176555708】【(GWU,GW毕业证书)乔治·华盛顿大学毕业证】【微信:176555708】成绩单、外壳、offer、留信学历认证（永久存档真实可查）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路），我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同机器制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信176555708】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信176555708】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析）
2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
办(uts毕业证书)悉尼科技大学毕业证学历证书原版一模一样
原版一模一样【微信：741003700 】【(uts毕业证书)悉尼科技大学毕业证学历证书】【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原海外各大学 Bachelor Diploma degree, Master Degree Diploma
1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
06-04-2024 - NYC Tech Week - Discussion on Vector Databases, Unstructured Dat...
06-04-2024 - NYC Tech Week - Discussion on Vector Databases, Unstructured Data and AI
Round table discussion of vector databases, unstructured data, ai, big data, real-time, robots and Milvus.
A lively discussion with NJ Gen AI Meetup Lead, Prasad and Procure.FYI's Co-Found
一比一原版(Chester毕业证书)切斯特大学毕业证如何办理
毕业原版【微信:41543339】【(Chester毕业证书)切斯特大学毕业证】【微信:41543339】成绩单、外壳、offer、留信学历认证（永久存档真实可查）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路），我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同机器制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信41543339】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信41543339】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析）
2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
06-12-2024-BudapestDataForum-BuildingReal-timePipelineswithFLaNK AIM
06-12-2024-BudapestDataForum-BuildingReal-timePipelineswithFLaNK AIM
by
Timothy Spann
Principal Developer Advocate
https://budapestdata.hu/2024/en/
https://budapestml.hu/2024/en/
tim.spann@zilliz.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/timothyspann/
https://x.com/paasdev
https://github.com/tspannhw
https://www.youtube.com/@flank-stack
milvus
vector database
gen ai
generative ai
deep learning
machine learning
apache nifi
apache pulsar
apache kafka
apache flink
一比一原版(Glasgow毕业证书)格拉斯哥大学毕业证如何办理
毕业原版【微信:41543339】【(Glasgow毕业证书)格拉斯哥大学毕业证】【微信:41543339】成绩单、外壳、offer、留信学历认证（永久存档真实可查）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路），我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同机器制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信41543339】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信41543339】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析）
2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
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Structural breaks, unit root tests and long time series
- 2. Macro economic variables consist of GNP, unemployment, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, balance of payments, etc. Unacceptable levels (think high inflation) or instability (think alternating periods of high and low growth) in any of the above variables can be very distressing for the people (think prices increasing by 20% every month OR being fired from your job due to low revenue growth prospects of your employer due to recession)
- 3. Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe: ! From NewYorkTimes, “at a supermarket near the centre of this tatterdemalion capital, toilet paper costs $417. No, not per roll. Four hundred seventeen Zimbabwean dollars is the value of a single two-ply sheet. A roll costs $145,750 — in American currency, about 69 cents.The price of toilet paper, like everything else here, soars almost daily, spawning jokes about an impending better use for Zimbabwe's $500 bill, now the smallest in circulation.” ! 100Trillion Zimbabwean dollar bills were in circulation ! In November 2008, inflation hit a high of 79.6 billion percent. So $Z 79600000000 would have to be paid in Nov 2008 for a pen priced at $Z1 in Nov 2007
- 4. The Great Recession (2007-2009) 1. US unemployment rate rose from 5% in 2008 pre-crisis to 10% by late 2009 2. Post recession Income levels of the median male worker was down to 1968 levels 3. Approximately 5.4 million people have been added to federal disability rolls 4. U.S. total national debt rose from 66% GDP in 2008 pre-crisis to over 103% by the end of 2012
- 5. Macro variables reflect different aspects of the same economy so they are interconnected and fluctuations in one can quickly translate into fluctuations in the others Consider this situation: When inflation is high, people may lose confidence in money as the real value of savings is severely reduced This discourages savings due to the fact that the money is worth more presently than in the future This expectation reduces economic growth because the economy needs a certain level of savings to finance investments which boosts economic growth. Also, inflation makes it harder for businesses to plan for the future. It is very difficult to decide how much to produce, because businesses cannot predict the demand for their product at the higher prices they will have to charge in order to cover their costs. Savings Growth Investment
- 6. To stabilize the economy over time, governments need to formulate policy to control the macro variables for which they need to understand the long term relation between them. Is this possible? The most powerful tool to understand the relation between crucial macro variables is Time Series Analysis: a branch of Econometrics or statistical analysis of economic variables
- 7. • Nelson and Plosser (1982) argued that almost all macroeconomic time series, have a unit root What does this mean: • In the absence of unit root (stationary), the series fluctuates around a constant long- run mean and implies that the series has a finite variance which does not depend on time. • On the other hand, non-stationary series have no tendency to return to long-run deterministic path and the variance of the series is time dependent. • Non-stationary series suffer permanent effects from random shocks and thus the series follow a random walk • Think tourist arrivals at a destination over time. If this series is non-stationary, then in case of random shocks like terrorist attacks or natural disaster, the number of tourist arrivals never revert to their original mean, but if the series was stationary they would have.
- 8. • If this were true, there is no use to policy anymore. The effects of hyperinflation or a recession on the economy are permanent and incurable and we are doomed to be on a low level path forever. • Such a Greek tragedy scenario where you are completely at the mercy of the Gods doesn’t seem relevant for current times
- 9. Perron (1989), argued that in the presence of a structural break, the standard ADF tests for unit root are biased towards the non-rejection of the null hypothesis The series on the left is non-stationary but the one on the right is not.. However, ADF tests might misleadingly point out the series on the right to be non-stationary as well
- 10. Testing for structural breaks is extremely important while analyzing long time series. Otherwise, all subsequent analysis might be misleading For instance, two series are cointegrated if they are individually I(1), but some vector of coefficients exists to form a stationary linear combination of them However, in the presence of structural breaks, unless proper testing is done, the individual series might mistakenly by labeled I(1)
- 11. Test Model Software Perron (1989)** Exogenous with one break Zivot and Andrews (1992)* Endogenous with one break Eviews Lumsdaine and Papell (1997)* Endogenous with two breaks GAUSS Lee and Strazicich (2003)** Endogenous with two breaks RATS Gregory and Hansen (1996) One Endogenous break in cointegration framework Eviews Saikkonen and Lütkepohl (2000) One Endogenous break in cointegration framework GAUSS Bai and Perron (2003) Endogenous multiple breaks RATS,Eviews * Assume no break(s) under the null hypothesis of unit root ** Assume break(s) under both the null and the alternative hypothesis
- 12. The Indian Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation has just introduced a structural break in the GDP series. Read up and be careful The tests in the earlier slide are quite technical. But expectedly anyone interested in this issue is likely to have a technical appetite. Hence happy reading. Zivot & Andrews (intensely mathematical) is good place to start Tests for panel data are a different set. Search Westlund, Levin-Lin-Chu, Pedroni etc.