This document outlines Boullon's mathematical model for computing the tourism carrying capacity (TCARCAP) of an area. It involves the following steps:
1. Calculate the TCARCAP by dividing the total area used by visitors by the average visitor standard.
2. Multiply the TCARCAP by the rotation coefficient (RC) to get the potential capacity coefficient (PCC).
3. Apply corrective factors (CF) like sunshine, rainfall etc. to the PCC to account for environmental variables and get the realistic carrying capacity coefficient (RCC).
The interactions between limiting and enhancing environmental factors determine the ideal TCARCAP for a particular ecotourism site.
Tourism and Transportation are inextricably linked. As world tourism increases, additional demands will be placed on the transportation sectors.
Source: C. Goeldner, Z. Cruz
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Tourism and Transportation are inextricably linked. As world tourism increases, additional demands will be placed on the transportation sectors.
Source: C. Goeldner, Z. Cruz
Message me if you want to have a copy of this presentation. Thanks.
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2. Total area used by visitors
TCARCAP = -------------------------
Average visitors’ standard
Example:
Total area used by visitors = 1,000 sq. m.
Average visitors’ standard = 2 sq. m. per visitor per day
TCARCAP = Maximum of 500 visitors at any given time
3. PCC = TCARCAP x rotation coefficient (RC)
where:
number of daily hours area is open for tourists
RC = --------------------------------------------- average
time of one visit
So,
RC = 3 visits
Then, PCC = 500 visits (or visitors) x 3 visits
= 1,500 visits (or visitors per day)
If an area is open for 12 hours per day and one visit requires four (4)
hours; then, one visitor can spend a maximum of 3 visits per day (or
equal to 3 visitors per day).
4. RCC is the maximum allowable number of visits to an area, once the corrective (i.e., reductive) factors (cf1, cf2,
….. cfn) derived from the particular characteristics of the site (or standards/needs of the visitors) have been
applied.
• Corrective Factors (cf) are obtained by considering biophysical, environmental, ecological, social,
management, etc. variables.
• Corrective Factors are determined by interviewing typical visitors in a given area or by research on the
tolerance of a given environment to the impacts of visitors.
RCC = PCC x 100 – cf1 x 100-cf2 x 100 – cfn
100 100 100
cf = M1 x 100
Mt
where cf = corrective factor
M1 = limiting magnitude of the variable
Mt = total magnitude of the variable
5. For example:
cf1 = sunshine
12 hours of sunshine each day (6 am to 6 pm)
10 am to 3 pm (5 hours) sunshine is intense, making visit very uncomfortable
3 months of rainy season, rain between 12 noon to 6 pm; thus, intense sunshine is
reduced to 2 hours from 10 am to 12 noon
Hence, there are:
9 months w/o rain (dry season) = 270 sunny days per year
3 rainy months = 90 rainy days per year
6. To compute M1 for cf1 (sunshine):
M1a = 270 days per year x 5 excessive sunshine hours per day = 1,350 hours of excessive
sunshine per year.
M1b = 90 days per year x 2 excessive sunshine hours per day = 180 hours of excessive
sunshine per year
M1 = 1,530 total hours of excessive sunshine per year
Mta = 270 sunny days per year x 12 sunshine hours per day = 3,240 hours of sunshine per year
Mtb = 90 sunny days per year x 6 sunshine hours per day = 540 hours of sunshine per year
Mt = 3,780 total hours sunshine per year
cf1 (sunshine) = 1,530 (M1) x 100
3,780 (Mt)
cf1 (sunshine) = excessive sunshine factor = 40
7. Next example:
cf2 = rainfall
There are 90 rainy days per year
Rain falls between 12 noon to 6 pm, thus hindering normal visitation during
these hours (6 hours).
Hence:
M1 = 90 rainy days per year x 6 hours of limiting rain per day = 540 hours
of limiting rain per year
Mt = total number of visiting hours per year = 360 days x 12 hours per day =
4,320 visiting hours per year
cf2 (rainfall) = 540 (M1) x 100
4,320 (Mt)
cf2 (rainfall) = rainy weather corrective factors = 12.50
8. So to compute RCC:
RCC = PCC x 100 – cf1 x 100-cf2 x 100 – cfn
100 100 100
RCC = 1,500 x 100 – 40 x 100 – 12.5
100 100
RCC = 1,500 x (0.59 x 0.875)
RCC = 774 visits or visitors per day
(a visitor is limited to 3 hours per day and
allotted 2 sq. m. at a given point in time)
9. Determining the Ideal Tourism Carrying Capacity
The ideal tourism carrying capacity (TCARCAP) is best
described in Figure 60. As the number of limiting factors
increase, or factors that reduce the number of potential
visitors in an area, the level of TCARCAP go down. On the
other hand, more enhancing factors present, or factors that
increase the number of
potential visitors, also increases the level of TCARCAP in the
area.
The interactions and interrelationships of the limiting and
enhancing factors help determine the ideal number of
visitors or users in a particular ecotourism site.
