This document discusses two important questions for climate research in 2014 regarding uncertainties in climate models and natural explanations for modern climate change. It notes that scientists should approach new information with an open mind without bias. It questions whether modern climate change is unusual, whether CO2 is responsible, whether humans are responsible for increased CO2, and whether the focus should be on CO2 reduction. The document argues that climate is influenced by natural variations like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and that climate models do not fully reproduce natural variations. It calls for reconsidering natural variations, CO2 sensitivity, temperature-CO2 dynamics, and modeling based on natural variations.

1. Ole Humlum, University of Oslo and UNIS
February 2014 vs average 1998-2006

5. June 2012

6. September 2013

7. TWO IMPORTANT QUESTIONS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH IN 2014: Are we under communicating
1.Uncertainties associated with climate models
2.Natural explanations for modern climate change ?

8. The psychological aspect:
Our reaction when presented to new
and perhaps controversial information ?

10. Essence of science: The art of thinking with an open mind, without being biased by what you believe

12. Is modern climate change unusual ?
No
Focus on a real problem
Yes
Is CO2 responsible for climate change ?
No
Focus on a real problem
Yes
Are humans responsible for CO2 increase ?
No
Focus on a real problem
Yes
Focus on CO2 reduction

19. IPCC 1988
66%
90%
95%

29. Is modern climate change unusual ?
No
Focus on a real problem
Yes
Is CO2 responsible for climate change ?
No
Focus on a real problem
Yes
Are humans responsible for CO2 increase ?
No
Focus on a real problem
Yes
Focus on CO2 reduction
CO2 increases because of humans
Climate is controlled by CO2
Modern climate change is unusual:
DANGER

31. about 1500 MIA NOK

33. Assumed natural climate development according to models
Conclusion: More than 100% of the temperature increase since 1965 is caused by man’s activity

37. The spectral signature
of measured and modeled data
Do climate models at all reproduce natural climate variations ?

41. Assumed natural climate development according to models

44. Storglaciären, northern Sweden

54. The "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. The climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector.

55. The thin line indicate annual PDO values, and the thick line is the simple running 7 year average

59. The thin line indicates the annual value, and the thick line is the simple running 11 year average.
The AMO is basically an index of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST). The AMO index appears to be correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO index also appears to be associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes.

68. 1: Natural variations
2: Sensitivity of CO2
3: Temperature-CO2 dynamics
Thank you for your attention !
CLIMATE ISSUES TO BE RECONSIDERED
4: Modeling based on natural variations