The document provides an investment analysis on Starwood Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: HOT) conducted by Nick Ennis, Bill Geist, Allen Miller, Mike Mongiardini, Tom Walker & Ryan Williams. Key points include:
- The analysts conducted a discounted cash flow valuation that derived an equity value of $15.1 billion for HOT, implying a slight downside from the current stock price.
- Growth in the lodging industry, particularly in China and North America, is expected to support increased revenues and profits for HOT over the next few years.
- HOT's transition to an asset-light business model is expected to improve returns and reduce risks, supporting
- The document values Prosper Marketplace, Inc. at $1.507 billion for its current funding round based on an analysis of the peer-to-peer lending market and Prosper's position within it.
- While the peer-to-peer lending market is growing rapidly and expected to reach over $300 billion by 2025, Prosper possesses few competitive advantages that are eroding as more competitors enter the market.
- As a result, the analysis only recommends investing in Prosper at or below the current $1.51 billion valuation due to slowing growth and declining margins from increasing competition in the peer-to-peer lending space.
(1) An investment analyst recommends not investing $1M in Airbnb's $1B funding round at a $20B pre-money valuation.
(2) While Airbnb has strong traction as a global vacation rental marketplace, the $20B valuation overinflates its true value of around $10.2B based on DCF and public company comparables analyses.
(3) The high valuation will hinder investor returns and there are regulatory, cost, and competitive unknowns that make Airbnb a risky investment at this stage.
Airbnb is the leading online marketplace for short-term home rentals. The document discusses Airbnb's $1B investment opportunity at a $20B valuation. It summarizes Airbnb's business model, large addressable market across vacation rentals and new markets created, strong network effects and competitive advantages, and financial projections estimating high growth and returns. However, the author recommends passing on the deal given the high $20B valuation limits potential returns to only 0.7-1.1x on investment.
Airbnb began in 2008 by addressing a problem and has since grown into a global community connecting people to unique travel experiences through listings of apartments, castles, and villas. It has experienced rapid growth between 2009-2014 with over 800,000 listings across 35,000 cities and 190 countries. Airbnb predominantly impacts large cities and has positive economic, environmental, and social effects - allowing travelers to belong anywhere through the hospitality of hosts.
As there long coveted IPO is around the corner, I felt this was the proper time to release this analysis. Airbnb is a company that I’ve been fascinated by for quite some time. Their ability to reverse engineer and push through market resistance is undeniable. Airbnb has revolutionized our viewpoint on hotel and lodging. This analysis will evaluate the company's long-standing history and the barriers of entry endured. I believe it is important to understand the pure resilience of these founders. This analysis will also dissect their current performance as they recently reported an astounding $2.6 billion in revenue, bringing home $93 million in profit. These metrics blew away all internal forecasts which landed them a $31 billion-dollar valuation in May. Additionally, Airbnb is a private company making key performance indicators difficult to determine. As a result, I exhibit the factors I believe were used in evaluating Airbnb’s valuation. This report will discuss micro-level and macro-environmental factors that help and inhibit Airbnb. All of these subsidiaries have impactful effects on Airbnb and its outlook moving forward. Lastly, I discuss the effects of an economic disaster, and the problems it will cause when it happens. I also provide solutions that I believe would be extremely effective in a state of turmoil.
- AirBnB is proposing a new service called "AirBnB Reality" that would partner with real estate companies like Remax to allow home buyers to book temporary stays in homes they are interested in purchasing through the AirBnB platform.
- This would give buyers a chance to experience what it would be like to live in the home before committing to a purchase. They could then leave reviews and potentially purchase the home after their stay.
- AirBnB sees this as an opportunity to diversify into real estate sales while revolutionizing the home buying process and giving buyers a new way to find their forever home. Partnering with an established company like Remax would help them gain access to the real estate market.
This presentation describes the components of canvas business model of Airbnb. You can find out it's business model clearly with this presentation.
I hope it helps you.
- The document values Prosper Marketplace, Inc. at $1.507 billion for its current funding round based on an analysis of the peer-to-peer lending market and Prosper's position within it.
- While the peer-to-peer lending market is growing rapidly and expected to reach over $300 billion by 2025, Prosper possesses few competitive advantages that are eroding as more competitors enter the market.
- As a result, the analysis only recommends investing in Prosper at or below the current $1.51 billion valuation due to slowing growth and declining margins from increasing competition in the peer-to-peer lending space.
(1) An investment analyst recommends not investing $1M in Airbnb's $1B funding round at a $20B pre-money valuation.
(2) While Airbnb has strong traction as a global vacation rental marketplace, the $20B valuation overinflates its true value of around $10.2B based on DCF and public company comparables analyses.
(3) The high valuation will hinder investor returns and there are regulatory, cost, and competitive unknowns that make Airbnb a risky investment at this stage.
Airbnb is the leading online marketplace for short-term home rentals. The document discusses Airbnb's $1B investment opportunity at a $20B valuation. It summarizes Airbnb's business model, large addressable market across vacation rentals and new markets created, strong network effects and competitive advantages, and financial projections estimating high growth and returns. However, the author recommends passing on the deal given the high $20B valuation limits potential returns to only 0.7-1.1x on investment.
Airbnb began in 2008 by addressing a problem and has since grown into a global community connecting people to unique travel experiences through listings of apartments, castles, and villas. It has experienced rapid growth between 2009-2014 with over 800,000 listings across 35,000 cities and 190 countries. Airbnb predominantly impacts large cities and has positive economic, environmental, and social effects - allowing travelers to belong anywhere through the hospitality of hosts.
As there long coveted IPO is around the corner, I felt this was the proper time to release this analysis. Airbnb is a company that I’ve been fascinated by for quite some time. Their ability to reverse engineer and push through market resistance is undeniable. Airbnb has revolutionized our viewpoint on hotel and lodging. This analysis will evaluate the company's long-standing history and the barriers of entry endured. I believe it is important to understand the pure resilience of these founders. This analysis will also dissect their current performance as they recently reported an astounding $2.6 billion in revenue, bringing home $93 million in profit. These metrics blew away all internal forecasts which landed them a $31 billion-dollar valuation in May. Additionally, Airbnb is a private company making key performance indicators difficult to determine. As a result, I exhibit the factors I believe were used in evaluating Airbnb’s valuation. This report will discuss micro-level and macro-environmental factors that help and inhibit Airbnb. All of these subsidiaries have impactful effects on Airbnb and its outlook moving forward. Lastly, I discuss the effects of an economic disaster, and the problems it will cause when it happens. I also provide solutions that I believe would be extremely effective in a state of turmoil.
- AirBnB is proposing a new service called "AirBnB Reality" that would partner with real estate companies like Remax to allow home buyers to book temporary stays in homes they are interested in purchasing through the AirBnB platform.
- This would give buyers a chance to experience what it would be like to live in the home before committing to a purchase. They could then leave reviews and potentially purchase the home after their stay.
- AirBnB sees this as an opportunity to diversify into real estate sales while revolutionizing the home buying process and giving buyers a new way to find their forever home. Partnering with an established company like Remax would help them gain access to the real estate market.
This presentation describes the components of canvas business model of Airbnb. You can find out it's business model clearly with this presentation.
I hope it helps you.
AirBnB started in 2008 by allowing people to rent out spare rooms and homes to guests. It now lists over 600,000 properties worldwide. While it faces competitors, AirBnB has grown to a $10 billion valuation by leveraging controversies to gain publicity. It is also moving beyond just accommodations and aims to become a full travel brand, expanding into transportation, meetings, tours and activities to provide an end-to-end travel experience. This positions AirBnB to potentially dominate the travel distribution landscape in the future as the next major travel brand.
How Airbnb disrupts the lodging industry and what you can do about itDimitris Savvakos
Airbnb has disrupted the lodging industry by allowing anyone to become a competitor by listing their private homes. It connects travelers with locals and is becoming bigger than the largest hotel chains by offering more rooms each night. The new generation prefers Airbnb because it is more affordable. For hotels to survive, they need to think like a startup by embracing the sharing economy, investing in technology, connecting with the local community, following the customer journey, and telling sharable stories to stay relevant in today's market.
The travel revolution - How Airbnb become a billion dollar company.
You can follow me if you want to grab other great resources, articles : http://twitter.com/gtabidze
Airbnb is an online marketplace that allows people to list and rent short-term lodging in their residential properties. It has over 800,000 listings in 192 countries and 20 million users. A SWOT analysis identifies strengths such as 24/7 availability and local experiences, but also weaknesses like disputes between guests and hosts and threats from growing competitors. A PESTLE analysis examines political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental factors affecting the business. Porter's Five Forces model is used to assess competitive dynamics.
Airbnb is an online marketplace that connects people looking to rent their homes with travelers seeking accommodations. Founded in 2008, it has grown to facilitate over 60 million guest stays across 192 countries annually. While it has disrupted the hotel industry, Airbnb's home-sharing model has also faced regulatory issues regarding taxation and safety. The document examines Airbnb's history and operations, as well as examples of regulations and controversies in various locations worldwide.
The digital disruption of airbnb and how IHG should reactYannick Pinkinelli
The presentation covers the digital disruption of airbnb in the hospitality indutry and the best ways for the other players to react (focused on IHG - InterContinental Hotels Group) - Yannick Pinkinelli
This document analyzes AirBnB and its superior performance. It summarizes AirBnB's marketing environment and strategies. Regarding the environment: political/legal issues posed challenges but regulations are changing; the economic crisis increased demand for cheaper accommodations. Regarding strategies: AirBnB's offers authentic local living at lower prices than hotels; extensive digital promotion expanded globally; future success requires expanding customer segments and improving security standards while promoting the brand.
1. The rise of the sharing economy has led to new business models like Airbnb that connect people with underutilized assets. Airbnb started as a platform for people to rent out spare rooms and has grown to include full homes in cities worldwide.
2. Airbnb's success comes from enabling trust between hosts and guests. It emphasizes community reviews and only charges guests after checkout to encourage comfort. Airbnb takes a percentage of each transaction while providing insurance and a simple listing process for hosts.
3. Airbnb indicates a shift in tourism toward more personalized, local experiences. By integrating hosts' tips on attractions and culture, Airbnb aims to move beyond basic accommodations and offer an
This document discusses Airbnb and its impact on the hotel industry. It begins by defining the sharing economy and how Airbnb fits within that trend. It then summarizes Airbnb's business model, rapid growth, and key reasons for its success, which include meeting consumer needs for value, personalization, and empowerment. The document also outlines some of the challenges Airbnb faces, such as regulation and competition from sites focused on luxury rentals, family travel, or hotel services. In conclusion, while Airbnb is disruptive to the hotel industry, hotels are working to address consumer trends and fight back with enhanced loyalty programs and personalized offers.
Airbnb is an online marketplace that connects people looking to rent out their homes and spaces with people seeking accommodations. Hosts list and rent out their unused spaces to travelers searching for lodging in 192 countries worldwide. Airbnb addresses problems of trust between strangers by vetting users and allowing them to build reputations through ratings and reviews. It also protects users' privacy and ensures it receives commissions by censoring contact information in messages between hosts and travelers on the site until a booking is made.
Airbnb operates as an extended enterprise by connecting hosts and travelers through an online platform. It displays elements of both lean and agile operational philosophies. As a global platform with over 1 million listings, Airbnb's core competencies include a large user base and tested product, though it also faces some legal risks. Both suppliers and consumers have access to real-time data and an emphasis is placed on efficiency rather than long-term relationships. While governance aims to meet supplier needs, some centralized control exists. Overall, Airbnb most closely resembles an extended enterprise model.
1. The document discusses a group project and presentation about the tourism and hotel sector, focusing on Airbnb.
2. It first covers the size and importance of the global, European, and French tourism markets, and how the sector traditionally involved hotels but is being disrupted by the sharing economy and Airbnb.
3. The document then examines how the internet and e-business has impacted the sector through new booking systems, business models, and decreased costs, before detailing Airbnb's business model and challenges, and the future potential for growth in the sector driven by e-business and new opportunities around data, flexibility and collaboration.
Airbnb is a sharing economy platform that offers short-term accommodation and has grown significantly. This study estimates Airbnb's impact on the hotel industry in Texas by analyzing data from Airbnb and Texas hotels. The researchers use a difference-in-differences strategy to identify Airbnb's causal impact on hotel room revenue by exploiting variation in Airbnb adoption across cities over time.
The Sharing Economy: Uber and Airbnb – Can They Exist in a Regulated World? W...Best Best and Krieger LLP
Best Best & Krieger attorney Jordan Ferguson was part of a panel discussion entitled, “The Sharing Economy: Uber and Airbnb – Can They Exist in a Regulated World? Will They Save of Destroy Your Community?” The panelists discussed how cities have responded to the emergence of the sharing economy with everything from new ordinances to expanded code enforcement efforts. Learn more about the sharing economy in the presentation (below). www.bbklaw.com
This is a presentation on collaborative consumption for our course "New Consumer Trends".
Department of Communication, Media and Culture
Instructor: assistant professor Betty Tsakarestou
Team members: Charalampopoulou Stavrianna, Alexiou Melissa, Georgakopoulou Hara and Sapounas Sokratis
A qualitative market research report that focuses on the lodging competition between Airbnb and hotels. This report provides consumer insights around why travelers prefer one over another and why, and their expectations of each.
Innovation strategy through the business model in digitalFaiz Mimita 🎬
This document provides an overview of innovation strategy through business models in the digital age, using Airbnb as a case study. It discusses how the internet has changed business models, from traditional bricks and mortar to pure online players to click and mortar combinations. Case studies of Virgin Megastore, Amazon and Fnac are presented as examples of each type of business model. The document also outlines Airbnb's business model of allowing people to list, discover and book unique accommodations around the world.
This document summarizes research conducted on the local Airbnb culture in Savannah, GA. Interviews were conducted with various stakeholders, including hosts, guests, accommodations, the city, and neighbors. Key findings included that hosts use Airbnb for additional income, but it can negatively impact affordable housing. Guests enjoy the cheaper prices and local experience. Some solutions proposed included clearer definitions for different accommodation types, customized zoning based on neighborhoods, restructuring taxes, and creating a website for managing short-term vacation rentals. The goal of the research was to understand all perspectives involved in the home sharing economy on Airbnb.
The document discusses the sharing economy and its impact on society. It begins with an agenda for discussing principles of the sharing and cooperative economies. It then analyzes the sharing economy, including its upsides like lower prices but also downsides like risks and regulations. Forces influencing the sharing economy are explored, as well as how it threatens the hospitality industry like hotels. Airbnb's business model and issues with regulation, reputation, and risk are examined. Finally, the impacts of the sharing economy on different stakeholders are considered.
This document describes an accommodation service that allows individuals to rent out private apartments through an online platform and mobile apps. Users can book listings using direct payment on the platform or via PayPal, Google Wallet, and credit/debit cards. While this service has provided an alternative to hotels, it has also negatively impacted the hospitality industry by reducing short-term bookings and revenue for hotels.
Starwood Hotel Resort is classified under the hospitality and tourism industry. It operates numerous hotel brands globally, with over 1,100 properties in nearly 100 countries. While Starwood saw declines in revenue and profits for fiscal year 2014 compared to 2013, it is focused on expansion in regions like China, Africa, Europe, South Asia, India, and Latin America. Starwood's merger with Marriott will create the world's largest hotel company with over 5,600 hotels and 1.2 million rooms globally. Key factors that can affect Starwood's profitability include competition level, demand strength, economic conditions, advertising, availability of substitutes, and complementary goods.
marriott international 2008 Q4 Earnings Call Transcript with Q&Afinance20
Marriott International reported challenging results for Q4 2008 and full year 2008 due to the difficult economic environment. Systemwide RevPAR declined 8% in Q4 both in North America and outside North America. Marriott is actively managing costs and reducing investments to prepare for continued weak demand according to two forecast scenarios. First quarter 2009 is expected to be particularly difficult with estimated RevPAR declines of 17% in North America and 15% outside North America, and total fee revenue declining 20-25%. However, Marriott remains focused on gaining market share and has significant available capital to withstand the downturn.
AirBnB started in 2008 by allowing people to rent out spare rooms and homes to guests. It now lists over 600,000 properties worldwide. While it faces competitors, AirBnB has grown to a $10 billion valuation by leveraging controversies to gain publicity. It is also moving beyond just accommodations and aims to become a full travel brand, expanding into transportation, meetings, tours and activities to provide an end-to-end travel experience. This positions AirBnB to potentially dominate the travel distribution landscape in the future as the next major travel brand.
How Airbnb disrupts the lodging industry and what you can do about itDimitris Savvakos
Airbnb has disrupted the lodging industry by allowing anyone to become a competitor by listing their private homes. It connects travelers with locals and is becoming bigger than the largest hotel chains by offering more rooms each night. The new generation prefers Airbnb because it is more affordable. For hotels to survive, they need to think like a startup by embracing the sharing economy, investing in technology, connecting with the local community, following the customer journey, and telling sharable stories to stay relevant in today's market.
The travel revolution - How Airbnb become a billion dollar company.
You can follow me if you want to grab other great resources, articles : http://twitter.com/gtabidze
Airbnb is an online marketplace that allows people to list and rent short-term lodging in their residential properties. It has over 800,000 listings in 192 countries and 20 million users. A SWOT analysis identifies strengths such as 24/7 availability and local experiences, but also weaknesses like disputes between guests and hosts and threats from growing competitors. A PESTLE analysis examines political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental factors affecting the business. Porter's Five Forces model is used to assess competitive dynamics.
Airbnb is an online marketplace that connects people looking to rent their homes with travelers seeking accommodations. Founded in 2008, it has grown to facilitate over 60 million guest stays across 192 countries annually. While it has disrupted the hotel industry, Airbnb's home-sharing model has also faced regulatory issues regarding taxation and safety. The document examines Airbnb's history and operations, as well as examples of regulations and controversies in various locations worldwide.
The digital disruption of airbnb and how IHG should reactYannick Pinkinelli
The presentation covers the digital disruption of airbnb in the hospitality indutry and the best ways for the other players to react (focused on IHG - InterContinental Hotels Group) - Yannick Pinkinelli
This document analyzes AirBnB and its superior performance. It summarizes AirBnB's marketing environment and strategies. Regarding the environment: political/legal issues posed challenges but regulations are changing; the economic crisis increased demand for cheaper accommodations. Regarding strategies: AirBnB's offers authentic local living at lower prices than hotels; extensive digital promotion expanded globally; future success requires expanding customer segments and improving security standards while promoting the brand.
1. The rise of the sharing economy has led to new business models like Airbnb that connect people with underutilized assets. Airbnb started as a platform for people to rent out spare rooms and has grown to include full homes in cities worldwide.
2. Airbnb's success comes from enabling trust between hosts and guests. It emphasizes community reviews and only charges guests after checkout to encourage comfort. Airbnb takes a percentage of each transaction while providing insurance and a simple listing process for hosts.
3. Airbnb indicates a shift in tourism toward more personalized, local experiences. By integrating hosts' tips on attractions and culture, Airbnb aims to move beyond basic accommodations and offer an
This document discusses Airbnb and its impact on the hotel industry. It begins by defining the sharing economy and how Airbnb fits within that trend. It then summarizes Airbnb's business model, rapid growth, and key reasons for its success, which include meeting consumer needs for value, personalization, and empowerment. The document also outlines some of the challenges Airbnb faces, such as regulation and competition from sites focused on luxury rentals, family travel, or hotel services. In conclusion, while Airbnb is disruptive to the hotel industry, hotels are working to address consumer trends and fight back with enhanced loyalty programs and personalized offers.
Airbnb is an online marketplace that connects people looking to rent out their homes and spaces with people seeking accommodations. Hosts list and rent out their unused spaces to travelers searching for lodging in 192 countries worldwide. Airbnb addresses problems of trust between strangers by vetting users and allowing them to build reputations through ratings and reviews. It also protects users' privacy and ensures it receives commissions by censoring contact information in messages between hosts and travelers on the site until a booking is made.
Airbnb operates as an extended enterprise by connecting hosts and travelers through an online platform. It displays elements of both lean and agile operational philosophies. As a global platform with over 1 million listings, Airbnb's core competencies include a large user base and tested product, though it also faces some legal risks. Both suppliers and consumers have access to real-time data and an emphasis is placed on efficiency rather than long-term relationships. While governance aims to meet supplier needs, some centralized control exists. Overall, Airbnb most closely resembles an extended enterprise model.
1. The document discusses a group project and presentation about the tourism and hotel sector, focusing on Airbnb.
2. It first covers the size and importance of the global, European, and French tourism markets, and how the sector traditionally involved hotels but is being disrupted by the sharing economy and Airbnb.
3. The document then examines how the internet and e-business has impacted the sector through new booking systems, business models, and decreased costs, before detailing Airbnb's business model and challenges, and the future potential for growth in the sector driven by e-business and new opportunities around data, flexibility and collaboration.
Airbnb is a sharing economy platform that offers short-term accommodation and has grown significantly. This study estimates Airbnb's impact on the hotel industry in Texas by analyzing data from Airbnb and Texas hotels. The researchers use a difference-in-differences strategy to identify Airbnb's causal impact on hotel room revenue by exploiting variation in Airbnb adoption across cities over time.
The Sharing Economy: Uber and Airbnb – Can They Exist in a Regulated World? W...Best Best and Krieger LLP
Best Best & Krieger attorney Jordan Ferguson was part of a panel discussion entitled, “The Sharing Economy: Uber and Airbnb – Can They Exist in a Regulated World? Will They Save of Destroy Your Community?” The panelists discussed how cities have responded to the emergence of the sharing economy with everything from new ordinances to expanded code enforcement efforts. Learn more about the sharing economy in the presentation (below). www.bbklaw.com
This is a presentation on collaborative consumption for our course "New Consumer Trends".
Department of Communication, Media and Culture
Instructor: assistant professor Betty Tsakarestou
Team members: Charalampopoulou Stavrianna, Alexiou Melissa, Georgakopoulou Hara and Sapounas Sokratis
A qualitative market research report that focuses on the lodging competition between Airbnb and hotels. This report provides consumer insights around why travelers prefer one over another and why, and their expectations of each.
Innovation strategy through the business model in digitalFaiz Mimita 🎬
This document provides an overview of innovation strategy through business models in the digital age, using Airbnb as a case study. It discusses how the internet has changed business models, from traditional bricks and mortar to pure online players to click and mortar combinations. Case studies of Virgin Megastore, Amazon and Fnac are presented as examples of each type of business model. The document also outlines Airbnb's business model of allowing people to list, discover and book unique accommodations around the world.
This document summarizes research conducted on the local Airbnb culture in Savannah, GA. Interviews were conducted with various stakeholders, including hosts, guests, accommodations, the city, and neighbors. Key findings included that hosts use Airbnb for additional income, but it can negatively impact affordable housing. Guests enjoy the cheaper prices and local experience. Some solutions proposed included clearer definitions for different accommodation types, customized zoning based on neighborhoods, restructuring taxes, and creating a website for managing short-term vacation rentals. The goal of the research was to understand all perspectives involved in the home sharing economy on Airbnb.
The document discusses the sharing economy and its impact on society. It begins with an agenda for discussing principles of the sharing and cooperative economies. It then analyzes the sharing economy, including its upsides like lower prices but also downsides like risks and regulations. Forces influencing the sharing economy are explored, as well as how it threatens the hospitality industry like hotels. Airbnb's business model and issues with regulation, reputation, and risk are examined. Finally, the impacts of the sharing economy on different stakeholders are considered.
This document describes an accommodation service that allows individuals to rent out private apartments through an online platform and mobile apps. Users can book listings using direct payment on the platform or via PayPal, Google Wallet, and credit/debit cards. While this service has provided an alternative to hotels, it has also negatively impacted the hospitality industry by reducing short-term bookings and revenue for hotels.
Starwood Hotel Resort is classified under the hospitality and tourism industry. It operates numerous hotel brands globally, with over 1,100 properties in nearly 100 countries. While Starwood saw declines in revenue and profits for fiscal year 2014 compared to 2013, it is focused on expansion in regions like China, Africa, Europe, South Asia, India, and Latin America. Starwood's merger with Marriott will create the world's largest hotel company with over 5,600 hotels and 1.2 million rooms globally. Key factors that can affect Starwood's profitability include competition level, demand strength, economic conditions, advertising, availability of substitutes, and complementary goods.
marriott international 2008 Q4 Earnings Call Transcript with Q&Afinance20
Marriott International reported challenging results for Q4 2008 and full year 2008 due to the difficult economic environment. Systemwide RevPAR declined 8% in Q4 both in North America and outside North America. Marriott is actively managing costs and reducing investments to prepare for continued weak demand according to two forecast scenarios. First quarter 2009 is expected to be particularly difficult with estimated RevPAR declines of 17% in North America and 15% outside North America, and total fee revenue declining 20-25%. However, Marriott remains focused on gaining market share and has significant available capital to withstand the downturn.
Meetings & events forecast for 2015
It’s interesting to see the renewed focus on compliance in our industry. With 2015 on the horizon, the forecast provides valuable insight for our clients to refer to in upcoming budgeting and negotiations, whether they're focused on meetings, events or strategic meetings management.” The report contains a raft of valuable recommendations to help planners achieve success in the next 12 months.
Strategic Hotels & Resorts (BEE) is recommended as a buy with a price target of $12. As the economy recovers, BEE is well positioned to benefit from increasing occupancy and room rates at its luxury hotel properties. BEE has restructured debt and focused on operations. It is expected to reinstate dividends in 12-15 months, gaining favor with REIT investors. Key risks include interest rate increases and new competition entering the luxury hotel space. However, new construction remains low, limiting competitive threats in the near future.
This document provides an analysis and recommendation to buy shares of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG). It discusses Google's position as the dominant leader in the search engine and online advertising industry, generating revenue through paid advertising and cost-per-click networks. The analysis includes highlights of Google's stock performance, share information, and company financials. It also provides a positive outlook for Google, expecting continued revenue growth from pricing improvements in mobile advertising and increased traction across platforms like YouTube. The recommendation is to buy Google stock with a target price range of $671-$701.
The document analyzes historical hotel sales data from 2010-2013. It finds that overall capitalization rates for full-service hotels remained relatively flat from 7.74% to 7.70% during this period, while rates for limited-service hotels increased modestly from 8.86% to 9.14%. Room revenue multipliers declined slightly for full-service hotels and remained in a narrow range for limited-service hotels. The average sales price per room increased substantially for both full-service ($163,306 to $198,303) and limited-service ($58,046 to $78,956) hotels over this time period.
This document provides an outlook on the commercial real estate industry for 2015 from Deloitte. It begins with a foreword noting positive momentum in the industry and challenges from new competitors, cybercrime, and regulations. The document then looks back at their 2014 predictions, finding that fundamentals like rent and vacancy improved as expected, while investment and financing were stronger than anticipated due to increased availability. Regulatory uncertainty continued more than expected. Looking forward to 2015, the document predicts continued economic improvement boosting global investment in US CRE, with REITs offering positive returns and increasing capital flows. Financing availability and new sources will also support the industry.
The document provides an outlook on the commercial real estate industry for 2015. It discusses positive macroeconomic fundamentals in the US including improvements in the job market, GDP growth, and the housing sector. These positive economic conditions are expected to further strengthen the CRE recovery by boosting rents, occupancy rates, and investment activity. However, rising interest rates may impact property values and financing costs. Overall the outlook for the CRE industry in 2015 remains positive due to strong underlying economic growth.
This document provides an overview of XO Group Inc., including its financial performance, leadership team, and strategy. It discusses XO Group's transition to focus on its core wedding and baby brands, revamping operations and products. It highlights growth in transaction revenue and a new financial target model with double digit revenue growth and 20% adjusted EBITDA margins. Q3 2015 results show revenue increased 10.6% excluding exited operations, with transaction revenue up 40% and adjusted EBITDA margins of 21%.
This document contains projections and forward-looking statements from a company about its financial performance and estimates regarding third parties. It notes that actual results may differ from projections. It also lists factors that could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements, such as failure to generate sufficient revenue, history of losses, inability to adjust spending quickly, and increased competition reducing market share. The document provides an investment opportunity in the company by highlighting its leading position in the wedding market, growing baby property, strong brand, diversified revenue streams, transformed leadership and operations, and target for new growth and margin models.
marriott international 2008 Q2 Earnings Call Transcript with Q&Afinance20
Marriott International reported earnings per share of $0.41 for Q2 2008, which included $0.10 of negative impact from special tax items. Excluding these items, EPS was near the top end of prior guidance at $0.51. RevPAR growth in North America was 1.4% for company-operated hotels. While international markets saw stronger RevPAR growth, concerns about the slowing US economy have increased and Marriott expects flat to down 2% RevPAR growth for Q3 in North America. For 2008, Marriott forecasts systemwide RevPAR growth of flat to up 2% in constant dollars and total fee revenue of $1.450 to $1.475 billion.
With 25 years of investment management experience I am excited to begin my own firm in order to grow and preserve the hard earned assets of my clients.
Mercer Capital's Portfolio Valuation: Private Equity and Credit | Q1 2020Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Portfolio Valuation: Private Equity and Venture Capital Marks and Trends Newsletter provides a brief digest and commentary of some of the most relevant market trends influencing the fair value regarding private equity portfolio investments.
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) Annual Report and Form 20-F 2016AIMS Education
We are one of the world’s leading hotel
companies, whose purpose is to create Great
Hotels Guests Love® through delivering our
promise of True Hospitality for everyone.
We have a diverse portfolio of differentiated brands that
are well known and loved by millions of guests around
the world. Whatever their needs, we have the right hotel
brands for both our guests and owners.
The document provides an overview of an exercise to analyze a hospitality organization's task environment. The objectives are to understand the task environment, including competitors, suppliers, regulators, and customers. Tasks include completing forms to analyze these factors and how they are impacted by remote environmental forces. The evaluation criteria focus on describing the business, task environment analysis, identifying issues and linking them to remote forces, and explaining relationships between driving forces and value drivers.
- Starwood Hotels & Resorts had an exceptional year in 2006, with worldwide system-wide RevPAR growth of 9.9% and other strong financial results.
- The CEO, Steven Heyer, resigned in March 2007 and Bruce Duncan was appointed interim CEO due to issues with Heyer's management style.
- Starwood is well positioned for future growth with a strong market position, exceptional partner relationships, and clear strategy for continuing to build shareholder value through growing fee revenues, strengthening its industry-leading pipeline and brand initiatives.
March 2016 investor relations presentation 3 3-16XOGroup
This document provides an overview of XO Group Inc., including its financial performance, business segments, leadership team, and growth strategy. Some key points:
- XO Group owns wedding planning site The Knot and parenting site The Bump, with diversified revenue streams including advertising, transactions, and publishing.
- The company has transformed under a new leadership team, upgrading products/technology, evaluating assets, and setting a target of double-digit revenue growth and 20% adjusted EBITDA margins.
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Starwood
1. Nick Ennis, Bill Geist, Allen Miller, Mike Mongiardini, Tom Walker & Ryan Williams
December 6th
2014
Investment Analysis: Starwood Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: HOT)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
We believe that Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT) is an interesting company with
sustainable advantages in the Lodging sector and feel that current market sentiment
underestimates the true earnings potential for the firm over the next two years. We believe
that HOT has positioned itself to benefit from optimistic industry growth prospects and have set
a December 2015 price target of $85.00.
We are bullish on the long term trajectory of Chinese consumer discretionary spending
growth and encouraged by HOT’s increased focus on the region as a prominent source of future
revenue. Additionally, we believe that the company’s timely transition to an asset-light
business model capitalizes on increasing real estate prices, enables ROA improvement, and
decreases the firm’s debt burden, which ultimately leads to decreased risk associated with the
business and in turn, justification for multiple expansion. Below are the four main points behind
our argument:
Macro trends in the Lodging Industry should support HOT’s growth initiatives. Growth
in consumer discretionary spending in China continues to outperform global averages.
The company has stated that it views Asia as the next source of revenue growth and
intends to invest heavily in the region. Discretionary spending in China has increased
from 9100 CNY to 3100 CNY since 2004. Furthermore, revenue per available room
(RevPAR) in North America has increased at an 8% CAGR since 2009. Currently, North
America accounts for roughly 45% of reported revenue for HOT broken out by
geography.
HOT’s divestiture of real estate assets takes advantage of current market conditions.
Data on real estate trends suggest that we are entering a seller’s market as prices for
commercial real estate have increased roughly 40% since 2009.
An asset-light strategy in the Lodging segment allows for multiple expansion in stock
value. By adopting such a model, HOT has proven that it can leverage the high
reputation of its brand to support revenue and improve efficiency metrics along the
2. way. Since 2010, HOT’s return on assets has grown from 5.2% to 7.3% and the
company’s debt burden has decreased from $3.4 to $2.4 billion. We believe that these
developments represent strong arguments for a multiple expansion of 5.3% (from its
current 13.1x to our estimated 13.8x) as the risk associated with the firm’s business
have lessened.
2015 FCF should improve for the firm, as the company continues to rely less on a
capital-intensive model. We believe that capital expenditure decreases will accelerate
through 2015 as the firm continues to wind down its development capital expenditure
from $160 million in 2014 to $135 million in 2015. The benefit to FCF will ultimately be
a boon for shareholders of HOT as the company has shown a desire to return significant
value to them through stock repurchases, dividends, and debt reduction.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Starwood Hotel & Resorts Worldwide is a global hotel and leisure company that owns,
operates, and franchises luxury and upscale hotels, resorts, residences, and extended stay
hotels under the St. Regis, The Luxury Collection, W, Westin, Le Meridien, Sheraton, Four Points,
Aloft, and Element brands. In addition, the company markets vacation ownership resorts and
residential units for purchase at mixed use hotel projects. Starwood owns and/or manages over
1,200 properties in 100 countries and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut. It is listed on
NYSE in the S&P 500 stock price index under the ticker, HOT.
Figure 1: HOT Brands by Total # of Hotels
31
85
45
198
95
432
85 79
11
0
100
200
300
400
HOT Brands
3. The company segments its hotels business into Branded Hotel Management, Managed
Hotels, Brand Franchising and Licensing, and Owned, Leased, and Consolidated Joint Venture
Hotels. Its vacation ownership and residential sales operates separately from the hotels
business. Revenue by unit is broken down as follows:
Figure 2: Total Revenue by Unit
Business Unit 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Owned, Leased and Consolidated Joint Venture
Hotels 1,698 1,692
Management Fees, Franchise Fees and Other Income 888 965
Vacation Ownership and Residential 1,287 924
Other Revenues from Managed and Franchised
Properties 2,448 2,614
Total Revenues 6,321 6,115
INVESTMENT THESIS
HOT is positioned well to benefit from trends that suggest the Lodging Industry is rebounding
from historical lows in 2008-2009 in existing markets and prepared to accelerate growth in
new markets like China.
Chinese discretionary spending per capita is expected to grow beyond 30,000 CNY in
2015. That figure is expected to grow to over 42,000 within the next five years according to
estimates by Trading Economics which tracks nearly 300 economic indicators for 196 countries
worldwide. We believe that the nearly 10% CAGR in discretionary spending since 2004 indicates
a maturation of the Chinese consumer’s increasing demand of discretionary products and
services following overall economic expansion.
Figure 3: Chinese Discretionary Spending
4. In addition, we believe that the relaxation of visa restrictions between China and several major
economies, notably the United States and England, will increase inbound tourism demand
within China and serve as a further tailwind for the industry in the region.
Due to the continued development of the Chinese economy and therefore the increased
necessity of business travel to the region, paired with the relaxation of travel restrictions, we
feel that the Global Business Travel Association’s estimation that 55% of the increase in global
corporate travel over the next ten years stemming from Asia as a fair assumption and one that
supports the lodging sector’s growth in the region.
The North American lodging sector’s growth prospects, where HOT receives 45% of its
revenue, should also support our revenue projections for the firm over the next several
quarters. Figure 4 details the recovery of the North American luxury tourism sector. As can be
seen, the industry has rebounded from its lows following the financial crisis in 2008-09. We
believe that Average Daily Rate (ADR) will continue to outperform overall economic
development in the US (as measured by GDP growth) and believe this will have a positive effect
on RevPar.
Figure 4: Luxury Tourism Growth
9000
14000
19000
24000
29000
34000
China Discretionary Spending per
Capita
5. Another effect of the financial crisis was the sudden decrease in business travel
expenditures. Many detractors cited the gross excess of company budgets that allocated
exorbitant levels to conventions and perks associated with business travel. In the last three
years, those expenditures have rebounded as well. In 2014, the cost of business travel is
expected to grow to over $290 billion, a 6.8% increase over 2013. Within that total,
expenditures on group meetings or conventions are expected to grow 7.1%.
Furthermore, Smith Travel Research estimates that supply growth for the travel and
tourism industry to grow by 0.9% through 2015. We believe that the overall GDP projections
over that time, and the historic premium that travel and tourism growth has had relative to that
metric, indicate that demand for travel and tourism will increase around 4-5% overall in 2015.
The roughly 1% increase in supply will not be sufficient to satisfy the growing demand and
should serve as an additional tailwind to ADR looking forward.
EXPLANATION OF MODEL
We used conservative projections for the company to approximate a reasonable
scenario for HOT over the next 5 years. We broke down our hotels into owned, managed and
franchised hotels. Consistent with management’s plan to limit growth in the owned segment we
have forecasted no growth in the number of rooms in that segment. For the franchised and
managed segments we assumed a modest growth rate of 0.5% in the number of rooms across
Luxury Outlook
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Occupancy 69.1% 63.7% 67.8% 71.1% 73.3% 74.6% 75.0%
change -3.50% -5.4% 4.1% 3.3% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4%
Average Daily Rate $293.69 $243.88 $248.08 $262.97 $275.02 $290.61 $304.16
change 0% -17% 2% 6% 5% 6% 5%
RevPar $203.00 $155.46 $168.10 $186.85 $201.49 $216.71 $227.97
change -4.70% -23% 8% 11% 8% 8% 5%
6. our different brands and geographies. We felt that by keeping conservative estimates
throughout our model we can rely on our DCF valuation as a base or even a downside scenario,
with any positive tailwinds in the market or for HOT providing a boost to this baseline value.
In addition to the modest increase in available rooms mentioned above, we have
forecasted some improvements in Average Daily Rates (“ADR”) and occupancy rates varying by
hotel brand in North America for our managed and franchised properties. For our international
properties we used comparable industry growth rates to forecast our own growth. In North
America, we assumed the ADR for each of our brands continued to grow at the rate it had from
2013 to 2014 over the life of our model. Regarding occupancy, we forecasted a modest increase
for 2015 and then kept occupancy rates flat for the duration of our model period resulting in
modest growth in RevPAR over the course of our modeling period. For our remaining 42 owned
hotels we simply included modest revenue per room increases of 2.2% in 2017 and 2018 to keep
up with inflation. Lastly, for the smaller timeshare segment, we just forecasted an explicit
growth rate in unit sales and corresponding growth in operating fees.
On the cost side, we have forecasted an explicit expense per hotel for our owned hotels
of $28 million per hotel annually which is in line with annual costs HOT has experienced in the
past. For the managed hotel segment, we have determined profits by applying the appropriate
base (4.3% in 2014 growing to 4.7% in 2019) and incentive management fees (2.2% in 2014 to
2.6% in 2019) to the revenue generated by these properties. Similarly, for the franchised hotel
segment we have applied an appropriate franchise fee (4.1% throughout the projection period)
to the revenues generated by these properties. Another major cost assumption in our model
includes maintaining an effective tax rate of 33% during the projection period, slightly higher
than in previous years.
7. The last assumption worth paying special attention to is our projection for capital
expenditures and debt going forward. We are forecasting a decline in Capital Expenditures from
roughly 10% of operating revenue in 2015 to 5% by 2019. This is consistent with HOT’s stated
goal of moving away from the owned hotel segment and operating primarily as a franchisor and
hotel manager. By the same token, we do not forecast any additional debt incurrence by HOT as
management seeks to improve its ROIC and is unlikely to want to raise more capital without a
pressing need for more capital expenditure.
VALUATION ANALYSIS
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
We performed a bottom-up modelling exercise to find the Net Present Value of HOT’s
future stream of cashflows to determine an appropriate share price target for the firm. The
detailed Discounted Cash Flow analysis derived an Enterprise Value of $17,157m; adding $388m
of cash and deducting $2,438m of debt provides and Equity Value of $15,107m. With 189m
shares outstanding, this implies a share price valuation of $79.95 per share, or a marginal ~2%
downside to the current share price of $81.56.
Below is a breakdown of our summary output for the detailed DCF model:
8. Comparable Companies Analysis
We then decided to look at several of Starwood’s competitors in order to get a range of
possible values of Starwood’s stock price. In picking comparable companies, we searched for
large hotel companies that targeted the middle tier to high-end traveler. Ultimately, we decided
2014E Metrics 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cash Balance 388.0 Revenue 6,228.7 6,442.8 6,702.9 6,928.5 7,118.5
Total Debt 2,438.0 Growth % 3.4% 4.0% 3.4% 2.7%
Net Debt 2,050.0
Current Share Price $81.56 EBITDA 1,312.5 1,394.0 1,516.6 1,602.4 1,650.3
Diluted Shares 189.0 Margin % 21.1% 21.6% 22.6% 23.1% 23.2%
Current Market Capitalization 15,411.8
Enterprise Value 17,461.7 D&A (271.4) (245.5) (256.5) (227.0) (231.8)
Equity Beta 1.7 as % of Rev (4.4%) (3.8%) (3.8%) (3.3%) (3.3%)
Equity Risk Premium 5.0%
Debt Cost of Capital 4.2% EBIT 1,041.0 1,148.4 1,260.1 1,375.3 1,418.5
Post Tax Debt Cost of Capital 2.7% Margin % 16.7% 17.8% 18.8% 19.9% 19.9%
Risk-free Rate 2.6%
Tax Rate 35.0% NOPAT 676.7 746.5 819.0 894.0 922.0
Total Capital 17,849.8 Margin % 10.9% 11.6% 12.2% 12.9% 13.0%
Debt / Total Capital 13.7% 10.3% 9.7% 9.1% 3.1%
WACC 10.0% Plus: D&A 271.4 245.5 256.5 227.0 231.8
Terminal Growth Rate 2.0%
Terminal NOPAT Multiple 24.0x Less: Capex (339.3) (315.7) (256.5) (189.2) (193.2)
as % of Rev (5.4%) (4.9%) (3.8%) (2.7%) (2.7%)
2015E 2016E 2017E
EBITDA 1,312.5 1,394.0 1,516.6 Less: ∆ in WC (40.8) (43.8) (52.2) (46.1) (39.8)
11.0x $65.6 $70.3 $77.4 as % of Rev (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.8%) (0.7%) (0.6%)
12.0x $72.5 $77.7 $85.5
13.0x $79.4 $85.1 $93.5 Unlevered FCF 568.0 632.6 766.9 885.7 920.8
14.0x $86.4 $92.4 $101.5 Growth % 11.4% 21.2% 15.5% 4.0%
15.0x $93.3 $99.8 $109.5
16.0x $100.3 $107.2 $117.6
Period Count 1 2 3 4 5
2015E 2016E 2017E Discount Factor 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62
NOPAT 676.7 746.5 819.0
20.0x $60.8 $68.2 $75.8 NPV of FCF 516.6 523.2 576.9 605.9 572.9
22.0x $67.9 $76.1 $84.5
24.0x $75.1 $84.0 $93.2 Terminal Value 23,013.1
26.0x $82.3 $91.9 $101.8 NPV of Terminal Value 14,318.7
28.0x $89.4 $99.8 $110.5
30.0x $96.6 $107.7 $119.2 DCF Analysis
NPV of Future Cash Flows 2,795.6
Plus: NPV of Terminal Value 14,318.7
Enterprise Value 17,114.3
Plus: Cash + Equivalents 388.0
Less: Total Debt (2,438.0)
Equity Value 15,064.3
Diluted Shares Outstanding 189.0
Implied price per share $79.72
Upside to Current Share Price (2.3%)
2015E EV / EBITDA 13.0x
2015E EV / NOPAT 25.3x
9. to use five companies for our analysis: Marriot International, Hyatt Hotels, Hilton, Wyndham,
and Intercontinental. These companies generated revenues ranging from $9.9 billion to $36.9
billion. Additionally, all of these companies operate several brand name hotels, most of which
target high-end travelers.
We then looked at several multiples in order to get an idea of the possible range of
values at which the market could conceivably value Starwood’s stock:
Enterprise Value to EBITDA: Perhaps the most commonly referenced multiple for
valuation purposes, this multiple is preferred by many analysts and observers because it is
normalized for differences between companies such as capital structure, taxes, and accounting
techniques. Using each of the comparable companies’ most recently reported enterprise value
and EBITDA from the previous 12 months, these companies reported multiples ranging from
12.08 to 20.04. Using this range of multiples and Starwood’s EBITDA from the last 12 months,
Starwood’s stock price ranges from $59 to $105. Starwood’s current EV/EBITDA ratio is 15.22,
putting it in the middle of the range of comparable companies.
Enterprise Value to Unlevered Free Cash Flow: The five comparable companies reported
multiples ranging from 18.81 to 28.45. Using this range of multiples and Starwood’s unlevered
free cash flow from the last 12 months, Starwood’s stock price ranges from $60 to $96.
Starwood’s current EV/FCF ratio is 23.36, putting it right near the average of the comparable
companies, which was 23.
Price to Unlevered Free Cash Flow per Share: The five comparable companies reported
multiples ranging from 13.04 to 24.66. Using this range of multiples and Starwood’s unlevered
free cash flow per share from the last 12 months, Starwood’s stock price ranges from $49 to
$93. Starwood’s P/FCF ratio is 20.63, putting it above the average of its competitors.
10. Forward Price to Earnings Ratio: The five comparable companies reported multiples
ranging from 16.85 to 49.86. Using this range of multiples and our estimate of Starwood’s 2015
net income, Starwood’s stock price ranges from $57 to $170. Starwood’s forward P/E ratio is
25.57, putting it below the average of its competitors.
Trailing Price to Earnings Ratio: The five comparable companies reported multiples
ranging from 19.60 to 47.30. Using this range of multiples and our estimate of Starwood’s 2014
net income, Starwood’s stock price ranges from $59 to $142. Starwood’s trailing P/E ratio is
28.3, putting it significantly below the average of its competitors.
Takeaway: Based on our analysis of several of Starwood’s competitors, we believe that
the market’s current value of Starwood’s stock is fair, as Starwood’s metrics and ratios are not
outliers in the hotel industry. Starwood’s current stock price of $77.58 falls near the middle of
the range of possible values derived from its DCF analysis, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF, and P/FCF ratios.
11. RISKS TO THESIS
Loss of control: By selling most of its hard assets, HOT is essentially relinquishing control
over its physical spaces which can add greater uncertainty to the customer experience. By
leasing rather than owning properties, HOT is relying on other parties to provide appropriate
maintenance, fittings, and amenities for its branded hotels. By shifting its business model away
from owner-operator toward hotel management, HOT is also increasing the risk that property
owners switch to a competing hotel brand provider or undermine HOT’s brands by providing
substandard facilities.
Changing customer tastes and preferences: Business travelers in particular are
demanding unique differentiated hotel experiences that go beyond the traditional mass-chain
offerings provided by companies such as HOT. Travelers are increasingly preferring small hotels
12. with personal service and ‘a sense of place’1
that HOT’s large branded hotels are unable to
provide. A shift in customer preferences away from chain hotels poses a significant threat to
HOT’s revenue streams from products such as the Westin and Sheraton brands. Large hoteliers
are mitigating this risk by owning and operating their own ‘boutique’ hotels, although this
makes it harder for these companies to extract marketing and sales synergies across their
brands.
Political risks: While the Chinese market is certainly attractive from a growth outlook
point of view, there are a number of risks associated with operating in a market with opaque
legal structures and uncertain rule of law. HOT’s strategy to target the Chinese segment could
create significant value from new earnings streams, there nevertheless remains the possibility
that Chinese authorities could interfere with HOT’s operations or expropriate its assets.
Macro risks: As described above, the hotels business is highly cyclical and is particularly
sensitive to cuts in discretionary spending by businesses and travelers. With the global economic
outlook still uncertain, our forecasts for revenue growth and margin expansion
Brand dilution: HOT manages and markets a number of adjacent and competing hotel
brands that essentially operate in the same segment and compete for similar customers. It is
necessary to market different brands due to the competitive and fragmented nature of the
hotels business – clients are increasingly looking for brand differentiation and unique
experiences. This means that Starwood must promote and market a number of separate brands
in order to cater to the tastes and preferences of a range of customers. Hence there are risks
around customer cannibalization and brand dilution.
1
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/03/business/boutique-inns-chain-hotels-and-the-business-
traveler.html?_r=0