Google Glass
1
OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES FOR VENTURE INVESTORS
ALLEN MILLER
COLUMBIA BUSINESS SCHOOL
MBA INTERN, GOTHAM VENTURES
On the Brink of the Next Wave of Innovation
Pattern Recognition: Hardware Platforms Produce Software Innovation
2
Hardware Platform Software Innovation
?
Agenda
Deck Overview
1) Trends in Wearable Technology
2) An Overview of Glass
• Glass Products & Features
• User Feedback & Adoption
3) Investment Opportunities
• High-level Use Cases
• Industries
• Example Companies
4) A Case for Mass Adoption
5) Sources & References
3
Wearable
technology
Google
Glass
Industries
& Use
Cases
Companies
Historical Evolution of Wearables
WEARABLE TECHNOLOGY
4
Single Function,
Unconnected
Multi-function,
Unconnected
Multi-function,
Sometimes
Connected
Multi-function,
Always
Connected
1970s 1990s 2000s Today
Ex: digital or
analog
watches
Ex: digital watches
with enhanced
features like the G-
Shock watch
Ex: iPod
Applications
and the
Nike+
Sensor
Ex: Nike fuel band,
Google Glass
Wearable Technology Landscape Today
WEARABLE TECHNOLOGY
5
Wristbands Smart Watches Smart Glasses Smart Clothes
…and much, much more.
Growth Forecasts
Wearable Technology
6
$-
$2,000.00
$4,000.00
$6,000.00
$8,000.00
$10,000.00
$12,000.00
$14,000.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MarketValue(inmillionsof$)
Year (2010-2018)
Wearable Device Market Value
Source: Business Insider
$2.5B market, expected to grow to $12.2B by 2018.
2013 VC investing in Wearable Tech
Wearable Technology
7
In 2013, investors put $458M into wearable companies across 49 deals.
Source: CB Insights
Agenda
Deck Overview
1) Trends in Wearable Technology
2) An Overview of Glass
• Glass Products & Features
• User Feedback & Adoption
3) Investment Opportunities
• High-level Use Cases
• Industries
• Example Companies
4) A Case for Mass Adoption
5) Sources & References
8
Wearable
technology
Google
Glass
Industries
& Use
Cases
Companies
Hardware Overview
Glass Products and Features
9
Source: Techlife
Display:
• The main function is based on a mini projector, which projects onto a prism.
• The prism then reflects a layer over “reality” directly onto the retina.
• Equivalent of a 25 inch high definition screen from 8 feet away
Audio: Bone conduction transducer.
Storage: 12 GB of usable memory, synced with Google cloud storage.
Mobile Compatibility: MyGlass for Android and iOS.
Product Selection
Glass Products and Features
10
ThinBold
CurvedSplit
Frames Twist on Shades
Earbuds
Source: Google
Glass Growth Forecasts
User Feedback and Adoption
11
*The forecast for 2014 starts in the second quarter.
Source: Business Insider
22 million represents ~7% of the U.S. Population.
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018
UnitSales
Year
Forecast: Annual Sales from 2014-2018
Demographics of “Glass Gravitators”
User Feedback and Adoption
12
Base: 657 US online adults (18+) who replied that they would be willing to wear Glass
*Base: 4,657 US online adults (18+)
Source: North American Technographics Consumer Technology Survey, 2013
Glass Gravitators US Online Adults*
Female 44% 51%
Gen Z (18-24) 23% 13%
Gen Y (25-33) 26% 18%
Gen X (34-48) 22% 25%
Young Boomers (48-57) 13% 18%
Household Income (mean) $83,300 $78,700
Technology Optimist 66% 48%
Own iPhone 32% 24%
Own Android phone 35% 27%
Some Challenges: Survey Data
User Feedback and Adoption
13
Source: YouGov, May 2013
The majority (59%) weren’t interested a year ago.
Yes (28%)
No (59%)
Not Sure
(16%)
Would you consider buying and wearing Google Glasses?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Some Challenges: Survey Data
User Feedback and Adoption
14
Source: Surveycrest, 2013
Yes, 24%
No, 30%
Maybe,
46%
Would Google Glass Invade Privacy?
Poor,
53%Average,
24%
Excellent,
23%
How comfortable can you be viewing
things on google glass?
Source: Surveycrest, 2013
Agenda
Deck Overview
1) Trends in Wearable Technology
2) An Overview of Glass
• Glass Products & Features
• User Feedback & Adoption
3) Investment Opportunities
• High-level Use Cases
• Industries
• Example Companies
4) A Case for Mass Adoption
5) Sources & References
15
Wearable
technology
Google
Glass
Industries
& Use
Cases
Companies
Investment Opportunities
Industry Overview
16
Investment Timeline
Short
Run
Healthcare
Fitness
Platforms
Gaming
Long
Run
Consumer Digital Media
Advertising
Payments
News
Recruiting
Travel
Sports &
Entertainment
Transportation
Education
Commerce
Will begin with a few very
specific use cases—mostly
“enterprise” in nature.
Once mass adoption occurs, continued
permeated diffusion of mobile
connectivity.
Investment Opportunities
Industry Overview (Current Landscape)
17
Source: Compiled from Google
Of the 110 current apps, these 4 spaces are
the most promising in the short run.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Healthcare Fitness Gaming Platform &
Infrastructure
Development
Photo &
Video
Financial
Services &
Commerce
News
Aggregation
Food &
Beverage
Number of Google Approved Apps by Industry (as of April 2014)
Investment Opportunities
Example Companies
18
Healthcare Sample Company: Prisine.io
CEO: Kyle Samani
Location: Austin, Texas (pristine.io)
Currently Funded: No (angel financed)
Emergency responders are using Pristine to
beam in specialists in 1st person into the
field and the ambulance.
Surgeons are using Pristine to livestream cases
in 1st person to residents, fellows, and
surgeons at medical centers across the world.
Investment Opportunities
Example Companies
19
Fitness Sample Company: LynxFit (Byte an Atom)
CEO: Noble Ackerson
Location: Washington D.C. (http://www.lynxfit.com)
Currently Funded: No (angel financed)
1) Subscribe: Choose from
carefully curated categories
of workout routines.
2) Schedule: Users can
securely schedule routines
by location or by time.
3) Share: View, aggregate
and share data gathered
from exercise activities.
Investment Opportunities
Example Companies
20
Gaming Sample Company: Mind Pirate
CEO: Shawn Hardin
Location: Silicon Valley (http://mindpirate.com/)
Currently Funded: Seed (Bessemer Venture Partners, Signia Venture Partners)
Developed games include: Little Bandits, Shard & Singularity.
Investment Opportunities
Industry Overview
21
Platform & Infrastructure Sample Company: OnTheGo Platforms
CEO: Ryan Fink
Location: Portland, Oregon (https://www.otgplatforms.com/)
Currently Funded: Seed (Rogue Venture Partners, Foundry Group)
OnTheGo is developing gesture recognition technology to build a platform layer
that sits in between the glass hardware and Glass apps.
Agenda
Deck Overview
1) Trends in Wearable Technology
2) An Overview of Glass
• Glass Products & Features
• User Feedback & Adoption
3) Investment Opportunities
• High-level Use Cases
• Industries
• Example Companies
4) A Case for Mass Adoption
5) Sources & References
22
Wearable
technology
Google
Glass
Industries
& Use
Cases
Companies
A Case for Mass Adoption
Three Possible Challenges to Adoption
23
Product Functionality Price Point Social Norms
• Clunky, awkward feel
• Weak Visual display
• Wifi antena is spotty
• Battery Life is too low
Missing several critical
pieces of core
functionality.
At $1,500, Price
Point is too high
for the average
would-be
consumer
Glass also violates a number of current
social & cultural norms that could
prevent broad adoption including:
• Threats to privacy
• “Glasshole” perception
• No established etiquette for
obtaining the consent of those
being recorded.
As with most new products, successive
iterations will become more
aesthetically pleasing and higher in
quality. As the cost of production
lowers, so too will the price point.
The bigger challenge to adoption
centers around social norms. I will
make the case that social norms will
continue changing to make Glass
usage more socially acceptable.
A Case for Mass Adoption
In the Short Run: Product & Price (Not an Issue)
24
Historical Example: The Mobile Phone
Source: ASYMCO
Price Evolution Product Evolution
A Case for Mass Adoption
In the Short Run: Core Functionality (Possibly an Issue)
25
Historical Example: The Palm Pilot
Palm Had Functional Challenges The iPhone added Critical Functionality
• Inability to seamlessly sync all
existing contacts, music, etc., into
the device w/o manually entering
• Primitive Operating System
• Poor web browsing capability
• Ability to sync iPhone contacts,
songs, etc., to Mac computer with
the click of a mouse
• Best-in-class OS (iOS)
• Apps greatly enhance web
experience
A Case for Mass Adoption
In the Long Run: Social Norms (The Bigger Issue)
26
The more important question is whether Glass will overcome key challenges from a social
perspective. Many products in the recent past have failed the “social test.”
Segway Sony Aibo Facebook Home
A Case for Mass Adoption
Social Norms – Historical Parallels: The Mobile Phone
27
Back then…
• In 2000, only 28% of U.S. respondents owned a cell phone
• In 2007, 82% of cell phone users expressed concerns over location tracking
• Concerns over: privacy violations, waning attention spans, location tracking, etc.,
Source: American Association for Public Opinion Research,
Journal for Interactive Advertising
But now…
A Case for Mass Adoption
Social Norms—Historical Parallels: Facebook News Feed
Back then...
When News Feed launched in 2006, there was a
tremendous backlash among users:
• Users petition for FB to remove News Feed due to
privacy concerns
• CEO Mark Zuckerberg issued a public apology and
increases pricacy controls
28
Share of Time Spent on FB, 2011
But now…
Source:WebWashed
A Case for Mass Adoption
Social Norms: A 3-pronged Argument
29
1) Social Norms are already changing. We are moving away from privacy and towards
open information and continued mobility. Anyone on the Internet can already
information through a number of avenues:
2) Google is poised to focus on the 2 social norms that matter most:
• Control: Provide users with complete control over their personal information
• Privacy: Protect privacy through an “op-in” fully secured operating system
3) Historical Parallels (Phone & Newsfeed) lean very strongly in Google’s Favor
Google is already taking steps to avoid a major flop by taking feedback from users
(Explorer Program), expanding aesthetics & functionality (frames, prescription
lenses, ear buds, etc.,) , opening its platform to developers (MyGlass) and
investing heavily in quality supply chain partners (like Himax).
Agenda
Deck Overview
1) Trends in Wearable Technology
2) An Overview of Glass
• Glass Products & Features
• User Feedback & Adoption
3) Investment Opportunities
• High-level Use Cases
• Industries
• Example Companies
4) A Case for Mass Adoption
5) Sources & References
30
Wearable
technology
Google
Glass
Industries
& Use
Cases
Companies
Sources & References
Works Cited
31
Sources
AngelList
Business Insider
CB Insights
CrunchBase
Forbes
Fortune
Google
LynxFit
Mind Pirate
NY Times
OnTheGo Platforms
Pristine
SurveyCrest
TechLife
VentureBeat
YouGov
Interviews
Glass Explorers/Entrepreneurs
Dave Cho: COO, Soko Glam
Katy Kasmai: CEO, Xocracy (Founder of Glass NYC Meetup)
Ryan Fink: CEO, OnTheGo Platforms
Tom Emrich: Co-Founder, Wearable App Review & Glass Eats
Kyle Samani: CEO, Pristine
Lindsay Macvean: COO, Facial Network
Venture Capitalists
John Burke: Founder and Partner, True Ventures
Micah Rosenblum: Partner, Founder Collective
Amit Mukherjee: Associate, New Enterprise Associates
Zak Schwarzman: Associate, Gotham Ventures
Lucas Nelson: Principal, Gotham Ventures
Special thanks to Lucas Nelson and Professor
R.A. Farrokhnia (Columbia Business School).

Google Glass: VC Investment Thesis

  • 1.
    Google Glass 1 OPPORTUNITIES &CHALLENGES FOR VENTURE INVESTORS ALLEN MILLER COLUMBIA BUSINESS SCHOOL MBA INTERN, GOTHAM VENTURES
  • 2.
    On the Brinkof the Next Wave of Innovation Pattern Recognition: Hardware Platforms Produce Software Innovation 2 Hardware Platform Software Innovation ?
  • 3.
    Agenda Deck Overview 1) Trendsin Wearable Technology 2) An Overview of Glass • Glass Products & Features • User Feedback & Adoption 3) Investment Opportunities • High-level Use Cases • Industries • Example Companies 4) A Case for Mass Adoption 5) Sources & References 3 Wearable technology Google Glass Industries & Use Cases Companies
  • 4.
    Historical Evolution ofWearables WEARABLE TECHNOLOGY 4 Single Function, Unconnected Multi-function, Unconnected Multi-function, Sometimes Connected Multi-function, Always Connected 1970s 1990s 2000s Today Ex: digital or analog watches Ex: digital watches with enhanced features like the G- Shock watch Ex: iPod Applications and the Nike+ Sensor Ex: Nike fuel band, Google Glass
  • 5.
    Wearable Technology LandscapeToday WEARABLE TECHNOLOGY 5 Wristbands Smart Watches Smart Glasses Smart Clothes …and much, much more.
  • 6.
    Growth Forecasts Wearable Technology 6 $- $2,000.00 $4,000.00 $6,000.00 $8,000.00 $10,000.00 $12,000.00 $14,000.00 20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MarketValue(inmillionsof$) Year (2010-2018) Wearable Device Market Value Source: Business Insider $2.5B market, expected to grow to $12.2B by 2018.
  • 7.
    2013 VC investingin Wearable Tech Wearable Technology 7 In 2013, investors put $458M into wearable companies across 49 deals. Source: CB Insights
  • 8.
    Agenda Deck Overview 1) Trendsin Wearable Technology 2) An Overview of Glass • Glass Products & Features • User Feedback & Adoption 3) Investment Opportunities • High-level Use Cases • Industries • Example Companies 4) A Case for Mass Adoption 5) Sources & References 8 Wearable technology Google Glass Industries & Use Cases Companies
  • 9.
    Hardware Overview Glass Productsand Features 9 Source: Techlife Display: • The main function is based on a mini projector, which projects onto a prism. • The prism then reflects a layer over “reality” directly onto the retina. • Equivalent of a 25 inch high definition screen from 8 feet away Audio: Bone conduction transducer. Storage: 12 GB of usable memory, synced with Google cloud storage. Mobile Compatibility: MyGlass for Android and iOS.
  • 10.
    Product Selection Glass Productsand Features 10 ThinBold CurvedSplit Frames Twist on Shades Earbuds Source: Google
  • 11.
    Glass Growth Forecasts UserFeedback and Adoption 11 *The forecast for 2014 starts in the second quarter. Source: Business Insider 22 million represents ~7% of the U.S. Population. - 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018 UnitSales Year Forecast: Annual Sales from 2014-2018
  • 12.
    Demographics of “GlassGravitators” User Feedback and Adoption 12 Base: 657 US online adults (18+) who replied that they would be willing to wear Glass *Base: 4,657 US online adults (18+) Source: North American Technographics Consumer Technology Survey, 2013 Glass Gravitators US Online Adults* Female 44% 51% Gen Z (18-24) 23% 13% Gen Y (25-33) 26% 18% Gen X (34-48) 22% 25% Young Boomers (48-57) 13% 18% Household Income (mean) $83,300 $78,700 Technology Optimist 66% 48% Own iPhone 32% 24% Own Android phone 35% 27%
  • 13.
    Some Challenges: SurveyData User Feedback and Adoption 13 Source: YouGov, May 2013 The majority (59%) weren’t interested a year ago. Yes (28%) No (59%) Not Sure (16%) Would you consider buying and wearing Google Glasses? Yes No Not Sure
  • 14.
    Some Challenges: SurveyData User Feedback and Adoption 14 Source: Surveycrest, 2013 Yes, 24% No, 30% Maybe, 46% Would Google Glass Invade Privacy? Poor, 53%Average, 24% Excellent, 23% How comfortable can you be viewing things on google glass? Source: Surveycrest, 2013
  • 15.
    Agenda Deck Overview 1) Trendsin Wearable Technology 2) An Overview of Glass • Glass Products & Features • User Feedback & Adoption 3) Investment Opportunities • High-level Use Cases • Industries • Example Companies 4) A Case for Mass Adoption 5) Sources & References 15 Wearable technology Google Glass Industries & Use Cases Companies
  • 16.
    Investment Opportunities Industry Overview 16 InvestmentTimeline Short Run Healthcare Fitness Platforms Gaming Long Run Consumer Digital Media Advertising Payments News Recruiting Travel Sports & Entertainment Transportation Education Commerce Will begin with a few very specific use cases—mostly “enterprise” in nature. Once mass adoption occurs, continued permeated diffusion of mobile connectivity.
  • 17.
    Investment Opportunities Industry Overview(Current Landscape) 17 Source: Compiled from Google Of the 110 current apps, these 4 spaces are the most promising in the short run. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Healthcare Fitness Gaming Platform & Infrastructure Development Photo & Video Financial Services & Commerce News Aggregation Food & Beverage Number of Google Approved Apps by Industry (as of April 2014)
  • 18.
    Investment Opportunities Example Companies 18 HealthcareSample Company: Prisine.io CEO: Kyle Samani Location: Austin, Texas (pristine.io) Currently Funded: No (angel financed) Emergency responders are using Pristine to beam in specialists in 1st person into the field and the ambulance. Surgeons are using Pristine to livestream cases in 1st person to residents, fellows, and surgeons at medical centers across the world.
  • 19.
    Investment Opportunities Example Companies 19 FitnessSample Company: LynxFit (Byte an Atom) CEO: Noble Ackerson Location: Washington D.C. (http://www.lynxfit.com) Currently Funded: No (angel financed) 1) Subscribe: Choose from carefully curated categories of workout routines. 2) Schedule: Users can securely schedule routines by location or by time. 3) Share: View, aggregate and share data gathered from exercise activities.
  • 20.
    Investment Opportunities Example Companies 20 GamingSample Company: Mind Pirate CEO: Shawn Hardin Location: Silicon Valley (http://mindpirate.com/) Currently Funded: Seed (Bessemer Venture Partners, Signia Venture Partners) Developed games include: Little Bandits, Shard & Singularity.
  • 21.
    Investment Opportunities Industry Overview 21 Platform& Infrastructure Sample Company: OnTheGo Platforms CEO: Ryan Fink Location: Portland, Oregon (https://www.otgplatforms.com/) Currently Funded: Seed (Rogue Venture Partners, Foundry Group) OnTheGo is developing gesture recognition technology to build a platform layer that sits in between the glass hardware and Glass apps.
  • 22.
    Agenda Deck Overview 1) Trendsin Wearable Technology 2) An Overview of Glass • Glass Products & Features • User Feedback & Adoption 3) Investment Opportunities • High-level Use Cases • Industries • Example Companies 4) A Case for Mass Adoption 5) Sources & References 22 Wearable technology Google Glass Industries & Use Cases Companies
  • 23.
    A Case forMass Adoption Three Possible Challenges to Adoption 23 Product Functionality Price Point Social Norms • Clunky, awkward feel • Weak Visual display • Wifi antena is spotty • Battery Life is too low Missing several critical pieces of core functionality. At $1,500, Price Point is too high for the average would-be consumer Glass also violates a number of current social & cultural norms that could prevent broad adoption including: • Threats to privacy • “Glasshole” perception • No established etiquette for obtaining the consent of those being recorded. As with most new products, successive iterations will become more aesthetically pleasing and higher in quality. As the cost of production lowers, so too will the price point. The bigger challenge to adoption centers around social norms. I will make the case that social norms will continue changing to make Glass usage more socially acceptable.
  • 24.
    A Case forMass Adoption In the Short Run: Product & Price (Not an Issue) 24 Historical Example: The Mobile Phone Source: ASYMCO Price Evolution Product Evolution
  • 25.
    A Case forMass Adoption In the Short Run: Core Functionality (Possibly an Issue) 25 Historical Example: The Palm Pilot Palm Had Functional Challenges The iPhone added Critical Functionality • Inability to seamlessly sync all existing contacts, music, etc., into the device w/o manually entering • Primitive Operating System • Poor web browsing capability • Ability to sync iPhone contacts, songs, etc., to Mac computer with the click of a mouse • Best-in-class OS (iOS) • Apps greatly enhance web experience
  • 26.
    A Case forMass Adoption In the Long Run: Social Norms (The Bigger Issue) 26 The more important question is whether Glass will overcome key challenges from a social perspective. Many products in the recent past have failed the “social test.” Segway Sony Aibo Facebook Home
  • 27.
    A Case forMass Adoption Social Norms – Historical Parallels: The Mobile Phone 27 Back then… • In 2000, only 28% of U.S. respondents owned a cell phone • In 2007, 82% of cell phone users expressed concerns over location tracking • Concerns over: privacy violations, waning attention spans, location tracking, etc., Source: American Association for Public Opinion Research, Journal for Interactive Advertising But now…
  • 28.
    A Case forMass Adoption Social Norms—Historical Parallels: Facebook News Feed Back then... When News Feed launched in 2006, there was a tremendous backlash among users: • Users petition for FB to remove News Feed due to privacy concerns • CEO Mark Zuckerberg issued a public apology and increases pricacy controls 28 Share of Time Spent on FB, 2011 But now… Source:WebWashed
  • 29.
    A Case forMass Adoption Social Norms: A 3-pronged Argument 29 1) Social Norms are already changing. We are moving away from privacy and towards open information and continued mobility. Anyone on the Internet can already information through a number of avenues: 2) Google is poised to focus on the 2 social norms that matter most: • Control: Provide users with complete control over their personal information • Privacy: Protect privacy through an “op-in” fully secured operating system 3) Historical Parallels (Phone & Newsfeed) lean very strongly in Google’s Favor Google is already taking steps to avoid a major flop by taking feedback from users (Explorer Program), expanding aesthetics & functionality (frames, prescription lenses, ear buds, etc.,) , opening its platform to developers (MyGlass) and investing heavily in quality supply chain partners (like Himax).
  • 30.
    Agenda Deck Overview 1) Trendsin Wearable Technology 2) An Overview of Glass • Glass Products & Features • User Feedback & Adoption 3) Investment Opportunities • High-level Use Cases • Industries • Example Companies 4) A Case for Mass Adoption 5) Sources & References 30 Wearable technology Google Glass Industries & Use Cases Companies
  • 31.
    Sources & References WorksCited 31 Sources AngelList Business Insider CB Insights CrunchBase Forbes Fortune Google LynxFit Mind Pirate NY Times OnTheGo Platforms Pristine SurveyCrest TechLife VentureBeat YouGov Interviews Glass Explorers/Entrepreneurs Dave Cho: COO, Soko Glam Katy Kasmai: CEO, Xocracy (Founder of Glass NYC Meetup) Ryan Fink: CEO, OnTheGo Platforms Tom Emrich: Co-Founder, Wearable App Review & Glass Eats Kyle Samani: CEO, Pristine Lindsay Macvean: COO, Facial Network Venture Capitalists John Burke: Founder and Partner, True Ventures Micah Rosenblum: Partner, Founder Collective Amit Mukherjee: Associate, New Enterprise Associates Zak Schwarzman: Associate, Gotham Ventures Lucas Nelson: Principal, Gotham Ventures Special thanks to Lucas Nelson and Professor R.A. Farrokhnia (Columbia Business School).