This presentation was done at the Data Story telling event organized by Developer In Vogue - Women in Data Science. This presentation was to show the effects of the fall army worm invasion in Africa, the supporting geo factors and a prediction analysis about its spread.

1. TEMPORAL
AND SHORT-
TERM
ANALYSIS OF
THE FALL
ARMY WORM
INFESTATION
IN AFRICA
BY: CYHANA WILLIAMS
Geo-Spatial Technician
GIS DATA STORY

2. Content
• Introduction to the Fall Army Worm(FAW)
• Maize production in Africa before and after FAW
• Favourable Geographic Conditions of the FAW
• Map of FAW Infested countries
• Short Term Analysis

3. Introduction – The Fall Army Worm (FAW)
• Fall Armyworm (FAW), or Spodoptera frugiperda, is an insect that is
native to tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas.
• The moth can fly up to 100 km per night and the female moth can lay up
to a total of 1000 eggs in her lifetime
• It prefers maize, but can feed on more than 80 additional species of
crops, including rice, sorghum, millet, sugarcane, vegetable crops and
cotton.
• FAW was first detected in Central and Western Africa in early 2016 and
has quickly spread across virtually all of Sub-Saharan Africa. In July 2018
it was confirmed in India and Yemen. (FAO,2018)

4. Images of the Fall Army Worm

6. Maize production in Africa before and after FAW
Healthy Maize Farm FAW Infested Maize Farm

7. Statistics
1,219.60
1,470.10
1,619.60
1,871.70
1,684.00
1,949.90
1,764.50 1,768.54
1,691.64 1,721.91
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MAIZEPRODUCE(TONNES)
YEARS
Maize production in Ghana

8. After FAW
The devastation caused by fall armyworms has affected 18,219.07 hectares of maize farms as at May 26, 2017 in Ghana.
14,201.57
1,583
365
1,349
117
354.08
6 227.7 15
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
16,000.00
Brong Ahafo Eastern Ashanti Central Greater Accra Northern Upper West Volta Western
HECTARES
REGIONS
FAW Affected Lands in Ghana - May 2017

9. Favourable Factors of FAW (Climate and Vegetation 2000-2017)
Source: NASA Earth Observatory

11. Fall Army Worm Infestation Maps
Copyright © 2018

13. Short-Term Analysis
Which countries may be next?

14. FAW MIGRATION HYPOTHESIS
Left: value of all exports from 2012-2016 from source sub-Saharan African countries to
vulnerable countries outside sub-Saharan Africa.
Right: number of passengers in 2013 travelling from source sub-Saharan African countries with
their final destination in vulnerable countries outside sub-Saharan Africa. – Early et. al, 2018