South Windsor Conditions and Trends
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When updating a Plan of Conservation and Development, an important first step is to review conditions and trends affecting the Town. This presentation looks at South Windsor's people, houses, economy and fiscal situation. Prepared by Planimetrics for the South Windsor Planning and Zoning Commission.
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South Windsor Conditions and Trends
- 1. Demographics South Windsor Housing Economics Plan of Conservation and Development Conditions and Trends Analysis January 10, 2012 Fiscal Zoning 1
- 2. C&T Overview Demographics Housing Economics Fiscal Zoning • Population • Housing Units • Workforce • Expenditures • Existing Zoning Trends and • Prices and (residents) • Revenue Projections Affordability • Jobs (in Town) • Grand List • Age Changes • School Enrollment • Migration • Diversity 2
- 3. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics Demographics 3
- 4. Demographics Key Findings • Growth has moderated Housing • Aging, but losing empty nesters • Losing young adults Economics Fiscal Zoning 4
- 5. Demographics Population Trends Historic And Projected Population, South Windsor Housing 25,709 24,412 25,000 26,220 25,866 22,090 20,000 Economics 15,553 15,000 9,460 10,000 5,000 4,066 Fiscal 2,535 1,789 0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 Zoning Sources: 2010 US Census; projections prepared by Planimetrics. 5
- 6. Demographics Population Trends Housing % Change Decade South Windsor Connecticut 1990 to 2000 11% 4% Economics 2000 to 2010 5% 5% Source: 2010 US Census. Fiscal Zoning 6
- 7. Demographics Reason for Population Change in South Windsor Housing Economics Fiscal Zoning Sources: 2010 US Census; CT Department of Public Health; migration analysis prepared by Planimetrics. 7
- 8. Demographics Natural Increase in South Windsor Births & Deaths Housing 350 300 250 Economics 200 150 100 Fiscal 50 Births Deaths 0 1991 1992 1994 1996 1997 1999 2002 2004 2005 2007 2009 1990 1993 1995 1998 2000 2001 2003 2006 2008 Zoning Source: CT Department of Public Health. 8
- 9. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics Source: 2010 US Census. Age 9
- 10. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics Source: 2010 US Census. Age 10
- 11. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics Source: 2010 US Census. Age 11
- 12. Demographics Age 1990 Housing Economics Yellow is 1990. Fiscal Zoning Source: US Census. 12
- 13. Demographics Households by Age Changes in Household Types, South Windsor Housing 50 40 % of Households Economics 30 20 10 0 Fiscal 1990 2000 2010 Households with individuals under 18 years Households with individuals 65 years and over Zoning Source: 2010 US Census. 13
- 14. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics - 400 800 200 600 (800) (200) (600) (400) (1,200) (1,000) Under 5 years 5 to 9 years Children 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years Young Adults 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years / Families 45 to 49 years Household Formers 1990 to 2000 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years Empty Nesters 65 to 69 years Sources: 2010 US Census, CT Department of Public Health; migration analysis by Planimetrics. 70 to 74 years 1990-00 Net Migration 75 to 79 years Seniors 80 to 84 years 85 to 89 years 14
- 15. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics - 600 800 200 400 (200) (800) (600) (400) (1,200) (1,000) Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years Children 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years Young Adults 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years / Families 45 to 49 years 2000 to 2010 Household Formers 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years Empty Nesters 65 to 69 years Sources: 2010 US Census, CT Department of Public Health; migration analysis by Planimetrics. 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 2000-10 Net Migration Seniors 80 to 84 years 85 to 89 years 15
- 16. Demographics Households Housing Household Size, South Windsor, 2010 24% Economics 43% 1 person households 2 person households 3+ person households Fiscal 33% Zoning Source: 2010 US Census. 16
- 17. Demographics School Children Housing Economics Fiscal Zoning Sources: South Windsor Public Schools and Town Annual Reports. 17
- 18. Demographics Race* Housing South Windsor Connecticut White 86% 80% Black or African American Economics 5% 11% American Indian or Alaska Native < 1% 1% Asian 9% 4% Fiscal Other 2% 7% *“Race alone or in combination with one or more races.” Source: 2010 US Census. Zoning 18
- 19. Demographics Other Characteristics Housing South Connecticut Windsor % of Adults with Bachelor Degree or higher 43% 35% Economics Median Household Income (2005/2009) $88,643 $67,721 Per capita Income $38,659 $36,468 Residents below poverty level 2% 9% Fiscal Source: American Community Survey, 2005-2009. Zoning 19
- 20. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics Housing 20
- 21. Demographics Key Findings Housing • Growth has slowed • Most new housing has been multi-family / Economics planned residential • At risk of losing “affordable” units Fiscal Zoning 21
- 22. Demographics Housing Production Housing Economics Fiscal Zoning Source: 2010 US Census. 22
- 23. Demographics Housing Production Housing Economics Fiscal Zoning Source: CT Department of Community and Economic Development. 23
- 24. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics Source: 2010 US Census. Tenure 24
- 25. Demographics Housing Prices Housing Economics Fiscal Zoning Source: The Warren Group. 25
- 26. Demographics Housing Prices Housing Economics Fiscal Zoning Source: The Warren Group. 26
- 27. Demographics Housing Prices Housing Economics Fiscal Zoning Source: The Warren Group. 27
- 28. Demographics Affordable Housing Affordable Housing Definition Housing When 10% of a community’s housing stock is affordable, it is exempt from an affordable housing appeals procedure that shifts the burden of proof to the community to show that Economics threats to public health or safety outweigh the need for affordable housing. An affordable unit under CGS 8-30g must be: – assisted (funded under a state or federal program); – CHFA-financed (financed under a program for income-qualifying Fiscal persons or families); or, – deed restricted to be affordable to low- or moderate-income persons or families for at least 40 years. Zoning 28
- 29. Demographics Affordable Housing • In South Windsor: Housing – 7.06% of units are “affordable” (using 2010 Census housing counts) – “Assisted” and “CHFA Mortgages” – To reach 10%, need 185 more units (though each Economics new market rate unit increases this number) – Achievable! – But….over dependence on CHFA mortgages: Fiscal out of 723 “affordable units”, 249 or 34% are CHFA mortgages, which can “leave” the community if the owner moves out of town. Zoning 29
- 30. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics Economics 30
- 31. Demographics Key Findings • Compared to nearby communities: Housing – South Windsor’s residents earn more, but… – Jobs in town offer lower wages Economics • Strength in manufacturing Fiscal Zoning 31
- 32. Demographics Labor Force (residents) Housing Residents in Labor Force, 2010 South Windsor 59% Hartford County 52% Economics Connecticut 53% Sources: CT Department of Labor; US Census. Lowest % - 41% (Hartford) Fiscal Highest % - 69% (Hampton) Average – 55% Zoning Median – 56% 32
- 33. Demographics Unemployment Rates* (residents) Housing South Windsor CT 2000 1.8% 2.3% 2005 3.6% 4.9% Economics 2010 7.0% 9.1% *Annual averages. Source: CT Department of Labor. Fiscal Zoning 33
- 34. Demographics Income (residents) Housing Per Capita Median Household Income Income Economics South Windsor $37,108 $88,768 State $36,412 $67,067 County $32,939 $61,871 Fiscal Source: American Community Survey, 2008-2010. Zoning 34
- 35. Demographics How Residents Commute to Work Housing South % of Workers Windsor Age 16 or Older Drove Alone 87% Economics Car Pooled 7% Public Transportation 1% Walked 0.3% Fiscal Worked at Home 5% Source: 2008-2010 American Community Survey. Zoning 35
- 36. Demographics Jobs in South Windsor Housing # % Change 1980 8,120 -- Economics 1990 12,070 +49% 2000 11,741 -3% 2010 11,785 +0.4% Fiscal Source: CT Department of Labor. County: -4% State: - 5% • 0.78 jobs in South Windsor for every 1 resident in the Zoning labor force 36
- 37. Demographics Types of Jobs in South Windsor • Total Jobs in 2010 – 11,785: Housing – 33% Goods Producing • 3,135 in Manufacturing (or 27% of all jobs) Economics – 57% Services • Retail and wholesale trade top 2 services – 10% Government Fiscal Zoning 37
- 38. Demographics Jobs in South Windsor Concentration Relative to State (Location Quotient) Higher Concentration Than State Housing 2010 2000 Trend Wholesale Trade 2.83 3.49 Economics Manufacturing 2.56 1.68 Construction 2.07 2.40 Transportation, Warehousing 1.86 3.89 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, 1.46 2.69 Hunting Fiscal A location quotient compares the concentration of jobs in a location to a larger area. In this case South Windsor was compared to the State. Generally quotients of 0.75 to 1.25 means that the town is on par with the state. A higher quotient indicates that the town has a higher concentration of jobs and a smaller quotient means that the town has a lesser concentration. Source: CT DOL, 2000 and 2010 data. Zoning 38
- 39. Demographics On Par with State Housing 2010 2000 Trend Other Services 1.01 0.80 Administrative, Support, Waste 0.95 2.02 Management Economics Retail Trade 0.94 0.45 Accommodation, Food Services 0.93 0.51 Arts, Entertainment, Recreation 0.87 0.33 Fiscal Zoning 39
- 40. Demographics Lesser Concentration Than State 2010 2000 Trend Professional, Scientific, Technical Housing 0.52 0.53 -- Services Management of Companies and 0.47 n/a -- Enterprises Health Care, Social Assistance 0.47 0.48 -- Economics Finance and Insurance 0.41 0.24 Real Estate, Rental, Leasing 0.26 0.35 Information 0.17 0.03 Fiscal Educational Services 0.08 n/a -- Zoning 40
- 41. Demographics Manufacturing Comparisons Housing % of Jobs in Manufacturing South Windsor 27% Windsor 18% Economics Ellington 16% County 11% State 10% Manchester 9% East Windsor 8% Fiscal Vernon 3% Data not available for East Hartford due to confidentiality. Source: CT DOL, 2010 data. Zoning 41
- 42. Demographics Wages for Jobs in South Windsor Housing Average Annual Wages for all Job Sectors Windsor $ 68,000 East Hartford $ 65,513 Economics State $ 59,463 County $ 58,001 South Windsor $ 48,916 Manchester $ 41,836 Fiscal East Windsor $ 40,234 Ellington $ 39,485 Vernon $ 37,373 Zoning Source: CT DOL, 2010 data. 42
- 43. Demographics Detailed Data on Jobs and Wages in South Windsor Annual Average Annual Average Industry Establishments Employment Wage Housing Total - All Industries 927 11,785 $48,916 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 7 50 $26,498 Mining * * * Utilities * * * Construction 115 765 $56,922 Manufacturing 93 3,135 $62,478 Wholesale Trade 117 1,313 $63,966 Economics Retail Trade 105 1,231 $25,715 Transportation and Warehousing 29 530 $41,549 Information 4 41 $91,511 Finance and Insurance 48 350 $76,705 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 16 36 $50,179 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 72 327 $63,906 Management of Companies and Enterprises 5 97 $88,323 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 56 543 $30,557 Educational Services 9 30 $19,662 Health Care and Social Assistance 71 858 $37,850 Fiscal Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 15 151 $15,029 Accommodation and Food Services 47 752 $15,295 Other Services (except Public Administration) 95 421 $29,824 Unclassifiable/unknown industry * * * Federal Government 3 52 $53,338 State Government 1 23 $45,464 Local/Municipal Government 16 1,055 $51,069 Zoning Italicized industries are goods-producing. Data for 2010, from CT Department of Labor. Items with * are not reported by State due to confidentiality. 43
- 44. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics Fiscal 44
- 45. Demographics Key Findings • Reliance on property taxes, particularly Housing residential Economics Fiscal Zoning 45
- 46. Demographics South Windsor Costs Housing % of Total Town Costs General Government 5% Public Safety 10% Economics Public Works 12% Human Services 1% Culture & Recreation 4% Education 66% Debt Service 1% Fiscal Source: Town of South Windsor Financial Statements, June 30, 2010. Zoning 46
- 47. Demographics South Windsor Expenditures • Debt Per Capita: Housing – South Windsor: $1,204 – State Median: $1,654 Economics • Net Education Expenditure Per Pupil: – South Windsor: $12,774 Fiscal – State Median: $13,102 Zoning 47
- 48. Demographics Revenue Source Comparison Housing % of Revenues from Property Taxes South Windsor 78% Windsor 77% Economics State Median 76% East Windsor 74% Manchester 71% Ellington 67% Vernon 67% Fiscal East Hartford 63% Source: Town of South Windsor Financial Statements, June 30, 2010. Zoning 48
- 49. Demographics Grand List Components Housing Economics Fiscal Source: Municipal Fiscal Indicators, 2006-2010, CT Office of Policy and Management. Zoning 49
- 50. Demographics Grand List Comparison Housing % from Commercial, Industrial, Utility Manchester 30% Windsor 28% Economics East Windsor 27% Vernon 21% East Hartford 23% South Windsor 18% Fiscal State (all towns) 17% Ellington 11% Source: Municipal Fiscal Indicators, 2006-2010, CT Office of Policy and Management. Zoning 50
- 51. Demographics South Windsor Top 10 - Grand List Taxes Levied 2010 Housing (rounded) CT Light & Power $1,574,900 Evergreen Walk Lifestyle Ctr $1,089,200 Economics Federated Retail Holdings (Macy's Warehouse) $591,700 Town Center of SW $463,300 Evergreen Walk LLC $395,600 DST Realty $350,600 Benchmark GPT Windsor LLC Fiscal (Village at Buckland Court) $334,800 Target Corp. $329,300 Ventas Realty LP $322,500 Lowes Home Centers Inc. $317,900 Zoning Source: Town of South Windsor. 51
- 52. Demographics Grand List Growth Housing FYE Net Grand List % Change 2006 $ 2,008,550,193 -- 2007 $ 2,067,446,761 3% Economics 2008 $ 2,112,537,377 2% 2009 $ 2,680,367,627 27% 2010 $ 2,723,168,663 2% Source: Municipal Fiscal Indicators, 2006-2010, CT Office of Policy and Management. Fiscal Zoning 52
- 53. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics Zoning 53
- 54. Demographics Zoning • Residential Zones – 82% of land Housing • Business Zones – 18% of land – Comparison: 13% of land in Capitol Economics Region is zoned for business or mixed use Fiscal Zoning 54
- 55. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics Coming soon…. Land Use 55
- 56. Zoning Fiscal Economics Housing Demographics QUESTIONS? 56