8. Young Adults Living at Home
Trend Suggests Significant Pent-Up Demand
21 30%
Number (millions)
20 Share 29%
19 28%
18 27%
17 26%
16 25%
1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
9. Why the Long-Term Outlook for U.S.
Apartments Should Be Favorable
Will we finally see sweeping change in favor of the density,
efficiency, flexibility and affordability of apartment living?
If so, what will drive it?
1. Population growth
2. Echo boomers (and Millennials)
3. Changing household composition
4. Continued immigration
5. Environmental concerns
6. Affordability (in the post-crash world)
7. Bloom off the rose of homeownership
10. Population Growth
• The U.S. population is expected to
increase 33% by 2030 to 376
million.
• That’s 94 million more people than
there were in 2000.
• To accommodate that growth, we
need 60 million new housing units.
11. Baby Boomers
• 78 million strong, 45 million households.
• If only a small percentage migrate to rental
housing, the new demand is tremendous.
Relocation Choices of Seniors
Renter Before Move 20%
Renter After Move 59%
12. Echo Boomers and Millennials
A Continuing Stream of Young People
Millions
5
4
3
2
1
1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003
Source: National Center for Health Statistics.
13. Immigration Set a New Record
In the First Decade of the 21st Century
Millions
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1820s 1840s 1860s 1880s 1900s 1920s 1940s 1960s 1980s 2000s
14. Changing Household Composition
• For 50 years, married couples with children drove
America’s housing industry. But now they account for
less than 22% of all households and that number is
falling
Household Type 1970 2030
HH with Children 45% 27%
HH without Children 55% 73%
15. Changing Household Composition
Household Growth, 2000 - 2040
7 million
47 million
14% 86%
With Children Without Children
16. Declining Homeownership Rates
• 2009 Survey: 49% don’t believe homeownership is a
realistic wealth-building strategy.
• It costs $200 less per month, on average, to rent than to
own.
• A $100 investment in housing in 1985 would be worth
$240 today, while that same $100 invested in stocks
would be worth $1,116—more than four-and-a-half
times as much.
17. Declining Homeownership Rates
70%
68%
64%
66%
64%
62%
62%
60%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
» Source: Harvard University, State of the Nation’s Housing 2009
18. Future Housing Demand:
Shifting Tenure Implications
U.S. Household Growth Projection
2008 - 2015
» Source: Prof. Chris Nelson, Univ. of Utah
19. Supply Trends
Starts, Completions,
Period
Annual Average Annual Average
1999 – 2008 297,000 278,000
2009 97,000 259,000
2010 (est.) 85,000 135,000
20. Multifamily Mortgage Credit Extended,
2008Q1 – 2010Q1
$ Billions
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Total Banks Life GSEs Ginnie CMBS Other
Cos.
Source: Federal Reserve Board; NMHC.
21. Bank Lending Not Back To Normal
100%
80%
60% Excess Reserves (share
of total reserves)
40%
20%
0%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
23. National Apartment Price and Cap Rates
(000)
$140 10%
Price Per Unit
$120
Cap Rate 9%
$100
$80 8%
$60 7%
$40
6%
$20
$0 5%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
24. Financial Regulatory Reform:
Impact on Commercial Real Estate
• Added regulation and higher costs, which could be
passed on to borrowers, but most onerous provisions
revised.
o Risk Retention Provisions
o CMBS Ratings Changes
o Costly “End-User” Derivatives Regulations
• More than 200 regulatory rulemaking procedures
expected to implement it. (Sarbanes-Oxley had 16!)
25. Next Up: GSE Reform
• Making the case for multifamily
o We weren’t part of the problem – don’t throw the
baby out with the bath water!
o The nation is increasingly relying on rental housing,
but private capital cannot meet 100% of the
industry’s needs
o A federally backed secondary market is critical to the
industry’s health
• The process: a marathon, not a sprint.
26. Other Legislative Threats
• Carried Interest
• National Energy Efficiency Building Code/Green Building
Mandates
• Card Check/Unionization Legislation
• Tax Law Changes
