Economic indicators - Economic Monthly Overvies November 2012

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Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview November 2012

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Economic indicators - Economic Monthly Overvies November 2012

  1. 1. Economic Indicators Last update 12.12.20121 | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]
  2. 2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – November 2012 Europe: • Consensus November GDP forecast for WE improved from -0,3% to -0,2% for 2012 and decreased from 0,4% to 0,3% for 2013. • Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in October. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases. Both, the current business situation and the future business development were accessed somewhat less pessimistic. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis. • Euro zone recovery prospects remain distant as unemployment edges higher and the outlook for 2013 deteriorates. The resilience previously displayed by Germany has eroded. US: • Consensus November GDP forecast for the US improved from 2,1% to 2,2% for 2012 and decreased from 2,0% to 1,9% for 2013. • Growth edged up to 2% q-o-q in Q3, but the 2013 outlook remains clouded by adverse fiscal fundamentals and the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ looming. GDP growth in Q4 will likely be hurt by hurricane Sandy. Japan: • The November GDP growth forecast for Japan decreased again considerably from 2,3% to 1,8% for 2012 and from 1,3% to 0,8% for 2013. • Japanese GDP forecasts have been significantly downgraded, driven in part by a collapse in Q3 production.2 | Economic Indicators |
  3. 3. Eurostat Data3 | Economic Indicators |
  4. 4. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 06Q1 07Q1 12 Q1 11 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year Source: Eurostat Nov 124 | Economic Indicators |
  5. 5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 06Q1 07Q1 11 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 12 Q1 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter Source: Eurostat Nov 125 | Economic Indicators |
  6. 6. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.6 2.5 % 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 11/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 12/1 The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States. Source: Eurostat Nov 126 | Economic Indicators |
  7. 7. Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 Nov.12; 2,2 2,5 2,0 Eurozone inflation 1,5 FED rate Dec 12; 0,75 1,0 0,5 ECB short-term rate Dec 12; 0,25 0,0 -0,5 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 July 08 Jul.09 Jul.10 July 11 Jul.12 Source: ECB, FED Dec 127 | Economic Indicators |
  8. 8. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate 11 10.7 10 9 8 7 6 Jan 11 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 12 Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries Source: Eurostat Dec 128 | Economic Indicators |
  9. 9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved in November. 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 Jan 11 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 12 The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks. Source: Eurostat Dec 129 | Economic Indicators |
  10. 10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved slightly in November. 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Jan 11 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 12 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases. Source: Eurostat Dec 1210 | Economic Indicators |
  11. 11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 85 80 75 % 70 65 60 0… 0… 0… 0… 0… 0… 1… 1… 1… The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry. Source: Eurostat Nov 1211 | Economic Indicators |
  12. 12. Ifo Data12 | Economic Indicators |
  13. 13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate The Ifo World Economic climate worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Nov 1213 | Economic Indicators |
  14. 14. Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate The economic climate for Western Europe worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Nov 1214 | Economic Indicators |
  15. 15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Nov 1215 | Economic Indicators |
  16. 16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast. Source: IFO Jul 1216 | Economic Indicators |
  17. 17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO Jul 1217 | Economic Indicators |
  18. 18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO Dec 1218 | Economic Indicators |
  19. 19. Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations Business situation 6 months expectations 125 115 120 110 115 105 110 100 105 95 100 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 Jan 11 Jan 11 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 12 The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases. Companies expressed slightly greater satisfaction with their current business situation. They also were far less pessimistic about future business developments. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. Source: IFO Dec 1219 | Economic Indicators |
  20. 20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases. Companies expressed slightly greater satisfaction with their current business situation. They also were far less pessimistic about future business developments. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis. Source: IFO Dec 1220 | Economic Indicators |
  21. 21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The business climate within the printing industry deteriorated from +1 to -9 in November. 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Dec 12, bundesverband druck und medien21 | Economic Indicators |
  22. 22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Business Development at German Printers – November 12:  The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry remained on the same level like in October with+12%, in November 2011 the value was slightly lower with +8%.  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – decreased from +1% to -9%, worse than in the same month last year (-3%).  The business expectations for the coming 6 months decreased considerably from -9% to -28%.. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Dec 12, bundesverband druck und medien22 | Economic Indicators |
  23. 23. Zenith Data23 | Economic Indicators |
  24. 24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release  Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years, rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015  Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow 2% in 2015  Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between 2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to 37%  Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in internet display over the next three years  Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total in 2015 Source: Zenith 12/1224 | Economic Indicators |
  25. 25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release At current prices Source: Zenith 12/1225 | Economic Indicators |
  26. 26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release Source: Zenith 12/1226 | Economic Indicators |

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