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Social influence & Political
mobilization
Research Letter
Daniyar Mukhanov & Sijo Emmanuel
Introduction
Can political behaviour spread through an online social network?
61 million Facebook users during 2010 US congressional elections
Effect of social transmission
Most methods are ineffective (1% to 10%)
However, 0.01% makes difference
Main Results
- A randomized theory
- People older than 18
- On November 2, 2010. US congressional selection
Three groups of users
- Social message 60,055,176 (99%)
- Informational 611,096 (1%)
- No message 611,044 (1%)
Message
Cannot compare the treatment groups with the control groups
No option to click ‘I Voted’ button or polling place link
Social message vs Informational message
Users who received the social message were
2.08% more likely click on ‘I Voted’ button
0.26% more likely to click polling-place information link
Information seeking and political self-expression doesn’t
guarantee that a particular user will actually vote
Experiment and direct effects
Experiment Results: Analysis of direct effects
Measured the effect of experimental treatment on validated voting
Examination of public voting records
Users who received social message were 0.39% more likely to vote than user who did not receive any
message
Similarly 0.39% difference in voting between those who received social and informational message
Seeing faces of friends significantly contributed to overall effect of the message on real-world voting
These results show that online political mobilization can have a direct effect on political self-expression.
Experiment Results: Analysis of direct effects
Sample had an average of 149 Facebook friends
Many of these relationships constitute ‘weak-ties’
Mobilisation can spread online more effectively through ‘strong ties’
Close friends stronger behavioural effect on each other than acquaintances
Counted the number of interactions between each pair of friends
Categorized them by decile, ranking from lowest - highest % interactions
Interaction and Close real-world
relationship
Experiment Results: Analysis of indirect effects
Observe per-friend treatment increases as tie-strength increases
Observed treatment effects fall outside the null distribution for expressed
votes
Significantly different from chance outcomes
As interaction increases, the observed per-friend effect on friends
treatment on a user's expressed voting also increases
Horizontal grey bars represent null distribution derived from simulations of
identical networks
Incidence and topology of the behaviour and treatment are the same
Assignments of the treatment are randomly assigned
Expressed voting
Experiment Results: Analysis of indirect effects
Observe treatment effect is near zero for weak ties
Treatment effect spikes upwards and falls outside the
null distribution for the two top deciles
Strong ties are crucial for the spread of real-world voting
behaviour
Treatment effect for polling-place search gradually
increases
Several of the effects falling outside the 95% confidence
interval of null distribution
Validated voting
Polling-place search
Experiment Results: Analysis of indirect effects
Experiment Results
The sample had 60,491,898 (98%) users with at least 1 close friend
Average user having about 10 close friends
Results suggest users were about 0.011% more likely to engage in an act of political self-expression
By clicking ‘I Voted’ button than they would have been had their friend seen no message
Each close friend who received a social message was on average 0.099% more likely to express voting
Ordinary facebook friends may affect online expressive behaviour but do not affect private or real-world
political behaviours
In contrast, close friends have influenced all three
In many cases it was not possible to change target’s behaviour
Users may have already voted by absentee ballot before election day
They may have logged into Facebook too late to vote or influence other users voting behaviour
All effects measured are intent-to-treat effects rather than treatment-on-treated effects
Does close friends matter?
Social transmission
- Friends: 886 000 expressed votes
- Close friends: +559 000 expressed votes
- Close friends of close friends +1 000 000 expressed votes
Close friends
- 282 000 validated votes
- 74 000 polling place researches
Some important notes
US midterm elections turnout increases from 36.3% (2002) to 37.2% (2006) to
37.8% (2010)
Facebook social message increased turnout by 60 000 direct and 280 000
indirect votes
Results
- Online political mobilization works.
- Social mobilization is significantly effective than informational mobilization
alone.
- Close friends have about four times more influence.
- Online social networks influence offline behaviors.
Conclusion?
Ethics

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Social influence and political mobilization

  • 1. Social influence & Political mobilization Research Letter Daniyar Mukhanov & Sijo Emmanuel
  • 2. Introduction Can political behaviour spread through an online social network? 61 million Facebook users during 2010 US congressional elections Effect of social transmission Most methods are ineffective (1% to 10%) However, 0.01% makes difference
  • 3. Main Results - A randomized theory - People older than 18 - On November 2, 2010. US congressional selection
  • 4. Three groups of users - Social message 60,055,176 (99%) - Informational 611,096 (1%) - No message 611,044 (1%)
  • 6. Cannot compare the treatment groups with the control groups No option to click ‘I Voted’ button or polling place link Social message vs Informational message Users who received the social message were 2.08% more likely click on ‘I Voted’ button 0.26% more likely to click polling-place information link Information seeking and political self-expression doesn’t guarantee that a particular user will actually vote Experiment and direct effects Experiment Results: Analysis of direct effects
  • 7. Measured the effect of experimental treatment on validated voting Examination of public voting records Users who received social message were 0.39% more likely to vote than user who did not receive any message Similarly 0.39% difference in voting between those who received social and informational message Seeing faces of friends significantly contributed to overall effect of the message on real-world voting These results show that online political mobilization can have a direct effect on political self-expression. Experiment Results: Analysis of direct effects
  • 8. Sample had an average of 149 Facebook friends Many of these relationships constitute ‘weak-ties’ Mobilisation can spread online more effectively through ‘strong ties’ Close friends stronger behavioural effect on each other than acquaintances Counted the number of interactions between each pair of friends Categorized them by decile, ranking from lowest - highest % interactions Interaction and Close real-world relationship Experiment Results: Analysis of indirect effects
  • 9. Observe per-friend treatment increases as tie-strength increases Observed treatment effects fall outside the null distribution for expressed votes Significantly different from chance outcomes As interaction increases, the observed per-friend effect on friends treatment on a user's expressed voting also increases Horizontal grey bars represent null distribution derived from simulations of identical networks Incidence and topology of the behaviour and treatment are the same Assignments of the treatment are randomly assigned Expressed voting Experiment Results: Analysis of indirect effects
  • 10. Observe treatment effect is near zero for weak ties Treatment effect spikes upwards and falls outside the null distribution for the two top deciles Strong ties are crucial for the spread of real-world voting behaviour Treatment effect for polling-place search gradually increases Several of the effects falling outside the 95% confidence interval of null distribution Validated voting Polling-place search Experiment Results: Analysis of indirect effects
  • 11. Experiment Results The sample had 60,491,898 (98%) users with at least 1 close friend Average user having about 10 close friends Results suggest users were about 0.011% more likely to engage in an act of political self-expression By clicking ‘I Voted’ button than they would have been had their friend seen no message Each close friend who received a social message was on average 0.099% more likely to express voting Ordinary facebook friends may affect online expressive behaviour but do not affect private or real-world political behaviours In contrast, close friends have influenced all three In many cases it was not possible to change target’s behaviour Users may have already voted by absentee ballot before election day They may have logged into Facebook too late to vote or influence other users voting behaviour All effects measured are intent-to-treat effects rather than treatment-on-treated effects
  • 13. Social transmission - Friends: 886 000 expressed votes - Close friends: +559 000 expressed votes - Close friends of close friends +1 000 000 expressed votes
  • 14. Close friends - 282 000 validated votes - 74 000 polling place researches
  • 15. Some important notes US midterm elections turnout increases from 36.3% (2002) to 37.2% (2006) to 37.8% (2010) Facebook social message increased turnout by 60 000 direct and 280 000 indirect votes
  • 16. Results - Online political mobilization works. - Social mobilization is significantly effective than informational mobilization alone. - Close friends have about four times more influence. - Online social networks influence offline behaviors.