Expert consultation on methodology for an information system on rural livelihoods and Sustainable Development Goals indicators on smallholder productivity and income 7 - 8 December, FAO headquarters

1. Smallholdersin the dataportrait
Panagiotis Karfakis
Economist - FAO

2. Smallholders dataportrait

3. Full sample
• 22 surveys for 18 developing countries
• 248 million families
– 70 percent rural of which rural
– 57 percent of which family farms
• About 1.25 billion individuals
• 965 billion $US, generated income from all sources
– 44 percent of which in rural areas
– 52 percent of which by family farms

4. Farmers sample
• About 150 billion $US value of agricultural production
• About 130 billion $US value of food production
• 142 million family farm holdings
• 110 million hectares

5. Thresholds
• Hectare weighted median
• 1 hectare
• 2 hectares
• First 2 land quintiles of family farmers

6. 3.0
1.0
2.0
0.6
5.1
1.0
2.0
0.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
hectares Land thresholds
Average across farmers Average across countries
Thresholds

7. Year HWM 2Q
Kenya 2005 1.21 0.40
Ethiopia 2012 2.75 0.85
Malawi 2004 1.42 0.81
Malawi 2011 0.90 0.47
Tanzania 2009 2.30 0.76
Niger 2011 6.00 2.43
Uganda 2005 1.43 0.61
Uganda 2012 1.69 0.72
Nigeria 2010 1.67 0.35
Bangladesh 2005 0.74 0.18
Vietnam 1992 0.70 0.05
Vietnam 2002 1.30 0.28
Nepal 2003 1.35 0.41
Cambodia 2004 2.00 0.74
Indonesia 2000 2.25 0.34
Nicaragua 2005 35.00 2.11
Guatemala 2006 1.70 0.58
Bolivia 2005 4.10 0.50
Panama 2003 42.50 2.00
Albania 2005 1.10 0.40
Tajikistan 2003 0.60 0.10
Tajikistan 2007 0.57 0.10
Countries and surveys

8. 50
32
58
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
Percent of land used by small family farms
(alternative thresholds)
Average across countries
Land used by small family farms

9. 84
64
83
42
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
Percent of small family farms holdings
(alternative thresholds)
Average across countries
Holdings by small family farms

10. 72
49
73
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
Percent of ag. production by small family farms
(alternative thresholds)
Average across countries
Agricultural production (crops + livst)

11. 73
50
74
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
Percent of food produced by small family farms
(alternative thresholds)
Average across countries
Food production

12. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
billion$US(constant2009)
Income generated by farmers
alternative thresholds
Small Other
Aggregate income by family farms

13. Average hh income (family farms)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
$US(constant2009)
Gross yearly household income
alternative thresholds
Small Other
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
$US(constant2009)
Per capita gross yearly household income
alternative thresholds
Small Other

14. Land productivity (family farms)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
$US(constant2009)
Land productivity (all crops)
Alternative thresholds
Small Other
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
$US(constant2009)
Land productivity (food crops)
Alternative thresholds
Small Other

15. Labor productivity (family farms)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
HWM 1ha 2ha 2Q
$US(constant2009)
Value of ag. production per person day on farm
alternative thresholds
Small Other

16. Labor productivity (family farms)
Kenya 2005 62.2 90.3 28.1
Ethiopia 2012 2.6 2.4 -0.2
Malawi 2004 33.1 59.9 26.8
Malawi 2011 15.8 72.3 56.5
Tanzania 2009 2.1 2.5 0.4
Niger 2011 6.0 4.7 -1.3
Uganda 2005 5.3 3.5 -1.9
Uganda 2012 2.2 3.2 1.0
Nigeria 2010 55.4 33.6 -21.8
Bangladesh 2005 18.8
Vietnam 1992 22.5 42.2 19.7
Vietnam 2002 7.4 39.9 32.6
Nepal 2003 2.2 2.7 0.5
Cambodia 2004 0.9 1.6 0.7
Indonesia 2000 2.4 7.0 4.5
Nicaragua 2005 3.5 4.5 1.0
Guatemala 2006 12.1 13.7 1.6
Bolivia 2005 9.1 24.2 15.2
Panama 2003 18.8 10.2 -8.6
Albania 2005 11.5 14.6 3.2
Tajikistan 2003 2.2 4.1 1.9
Tajikistan 2007 3.3 11.6 8.3
14 21

17. Discussion (1)
• A range of assumptions and decisions needed
– Multi- versus uni- dimensional
• Land
– Unconditionally or conditionally
• Thresholds
– Minimum land/TLU, share of crop income, poverty
• Choosing between thresholds
– Distribution sensitive/uniform

18. Multidimensional
• Doran 1985: Accounts for the multi-dimensional
character of scale
• Function Φ(Z), replaces any ad hoc threshold
• Estimates the cut-off point from the data

19. Share of income from agriculture
0
.5
1
1.5
2
Density
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Income share from farm activities (crops+livst)
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0296
Kernel density estimate

20. No of producers s.t. conditions (1)
142 138
130
65
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
All producers All producers with
land>.01ha
All producers with
land>.01ha and ag
income>5%
All POOR producers, ag
income>5% and
land>.01ha
Number of holdings
(millions)

21. No of producers s.t. conditions (2)
142
103
94
44
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
All producers All producers with
land>.1ha
All producers with
land>.1ha and ag
income>10%
All POOR producers, ag
income>10% and
land>.1ha
Number of holdings
(millions)

22. Discussion (2)
• Simplicity/explicability (for cd objectives)
• Universality
– Developed countries to include (with established
systems and definitions)

23. Slide title