The document analyzes short sellers' behavior in the Japanese stock market. It discusses short sales processes, constraints on shorting, and short squeezes. The analysis examines actual short sale data from the JPX stock exchange over 22 months. It finds that short covering trades have modest positive returns and short sellers tend to cover positions when they become more profitable. The document also examines a case study of short positions in Toshiba stock.
Security analysis and portfolio managementHimanshu Jain
Live Project was all about studying the company’s financial health through the movement of their stock price. This live project deals with the basic concepts of investment in securities such as bonds and stocks, and management of such assets. It discusses various aspects of portfolio management, ranging from analysis, selection, and revision to evaluation of portfolio, securities market and risk evaluation that help in understanding the trading system better and making quality investment decisions.
This live project helped to understand how the stock prices vary. It also helped to know and calculate several technical terms. In this project, I was given 5 stocks wherein I need to update opening price, closing price, % change, total shares traded etc. every day. Then it is required to find out the beta, average return etc. of these stocks separately and construct a portfolio with Rs. 50, 00,000 keeping in mind optimum return for the investment. We need to keep in mind beta, standard deviation, risk and return of these stocks and invest to get the optimum returns.
This project helps in knowing the expected return and risk for each stock. Under this project I got to know about portfolio management as well as expected return & risk associate with each company. Through this project my future investment will be better as it helps in knowing the inside depth of companies by analysis the financial details.
Myths and Realities of ETFs and Index Investing - Ananth Madhavan, Managing Director, Global Head of Research for ETF and Index Investing, BlackRock
Presented at the AQR Asset Management Institute conference, Perspectives: Systemic Risk in Asset Management held on 26 April 2017 at London Business School.
This document defines risk and return in investments. Return is the expected profit from an investment based on current information, while risk refers to the chance of losing some or all of the original investment. Generally, investments with higher risk like equity shares have higher expected returns around 10%, while lower risk debt instruments average 3-4% returns. However, equity shares also experience more volatile short-term returns. The relationship between risk and return is such that higher risk investments offer higher potential returns. Diversifying investments across a portfolio can help reduce overall risk.
Managed futures involve professional money managers investing in futures contracts across various markets like energy, agriculture, currencies, and equities using techniques like fundamentals analysis, technical analysis, arbitrage, or algorithms. A study found that including a managed futures index in a portfolio increased returns and reduced risk compared to only including stocks. Managed futures provide diversification benefits and can hedge against various economic risks due to investing across global markets and using different strategies.
This document discusses risk and return analysis for equity shares. It defines risk as the possibility of the actual outcome differing from the expected outcome, and return as the reward for undertaking an investment. It discusses calculating return using techniques like net asset value and calculating risk using statistical methods like standard deviation. Equity shareholders take on risk but can potentially earn profits. The relationship between higher risk and higher potential returns is also covered.
The document summarizes a talk given by Dr. Paul Woolley on the negative effects of market benchmarks on fund performance and market pricing. It argues that benchmarking causes chronic mispricing by incentivizing momentum trading and risk-taking behavior over long-term value investing. This leads to bubbles, crashes, and secular overvaluation of high-risk assets. The solution proposed is for funds to shift to benchmark-free, pure value strategies with tighter monitoring to properly address agency problems and align manager incentives with long-term returns.
Security analysis and portfolio managementHimanshu Jain
Live Project was all about studying the company’s financial health through the movement of their stock price. This live project deals with the basic concepts of investment in securities such as bonds and stocks, and management of such assets. It discusses various aspects of portfolio management, ranging from analysis, selection, and revision to evaluation of portfolio, securities market and risk evaluation that help in understanding the trading system better and making quality investment decisions.
This live project helped to understand how the stock prices vary. It also helped to know and calculate several technical terms. In this project, I was given 5 stocks wherein I need to update opening price, closing price, % change, total shares traded etc. every day. Then it is required to find out the beta, average return etc. of these stocks separately and construct a portfolio with Rs. 50, 00,000 keeping in mind optimum return for the investment. We need to keep in mind beta, standard deviation, risk and return of these stocks and invest to get the optimum returns.
This project helps in knowing the expected return and risk for each stock. Under this project I got to know about portfolio management as well as expected return & risk associate with each company. Through this project my future investment will be better as it helps in knowing the inside depth of companies by analysis the financial details.
Myths and Realities of ETFs and Index Investing - Ananth Madhavan, Managing Director, Global Head of Research for ETF and Index Investing, BlackRock
Presented at the AQR Asset Management Institute conference, Perspectives: Systemic Risk in Asset Management held on 26 April 2017 at London Business School.
This document defines risk and return in investments. Return is the expected profit from an investment based on current information, while risk refers to the chance of losing some or all of the original investment. Generally, investments with higher risk like equity shares have higher expected returns around 10%, while lower risk debt instruments average 3-4% returns. However, equity shares also experience more volatile short-term returns. The relationship between risk and return is such that higher risk investments offer higher potential returns. Diversifying investments across a portfolio can help reduce overall risk.
Managed futures involve professional money managers investing in futures contracts across various markets like energy, agriculture, currencies, and equities using techniques like fundamentals analysis, technical analysis, arbitrage, or algorithms. A study found that including a managed futures index in a portfolio increased returns and reduced risk compared to only including stocks. Managed futures provide diversification benefits and can hedge against various economic risks due to investing across global markets and using different strategies.
This document discusses risk and return analysis for equity shares. It defines risk as the possibility of the actual outcome differing from the expected outcome, and return as the reward for undertaking an investment. It discusses calculating return using techniques like net asset value and calculating risk using statistical methods like standard deviation. Equity shareholders take on risk but can potentially earn profits. The relationship between higher risk and higher potential returns is also covered.
The document summarizes a talk given by Dr. Paul Woolley on the negative effects of market benchmarks on fund performance and market pricing. It argues that benchmarking causes chronic mispricing by incentivizing momentum trading and risk-taking behavior over long-term value investing. This leads to bubbles, crashes, and secular overvaluation of high-risk assets. The solution proposed is for funds to shift to benchmark-free, pure value strategies with tighter monitoring to properly address agency problems and align manager incentives with long-term returns.
Return and risk of portfolio with probabilityshijintp
This document outlines a study on predicting the return and risk of individual securities and portfolios. It discusses the objectives, methodology, variables, and limitations of the study. Regression analysis and probability assumptions are used to predict future security returns under various economic scenarios. The Sharpe model is applied to construct an optimal two-stock portfolio of Raymond and Axis Bank with an expected return of 28.14% and risk of 4.26%. The study demonstrates using historical data and fundamental analysis to estimate future security performance and portfolio risk-return.
This document describes the investment strategy of JMS Partners, a management group. They take a concentrated equity approach investing in 10-15 stocks, and use derivatives to provide downside protection. They have developed proprietary software that analyzes market data and correlates variables to identify statistically anomalous stocks and relationships. The software profiles stocks based on probability and mean reversion theory to select investments with the highest probability of success. Their strategy aims to generate superior risk-adjusted returns through a collaborative, multi-disciplinary approach combining fundamental analysis, derivatives hedging, and quantitative modeling.
Risk And Return Relationship PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
While building a diversified portfolio it is important to balance risk and returns, plan your investment strategy with our content ready easy to understand Risk and Return Relationship PowerPoint Presentation Slides. The visually appealing portfolio risk-return trade-off PowerPoint compete deck includes a set of pre-made PPT slides such as risk and return of stock bonds, and T-bills, investment strategies of predefined portfolios, risk and return of portfolio manager, measuring stock volatility proportionate, portfolio return analysis, calculating asset beta, portfolio value at risk, ranking the passive income streams impact and many more. Discuss the relationship between risk and return using security analysis and portfolio management PPT visuals. Utilize the professionally designed risk-return trade-off to structure your financial presentation. Furthermore, risk and return equation PPT visuals are completely customizable. You can add or delete the content if needed. Download this easy to use security analysis and portfolio management presentation deck to illustrate the risk-return relationship. Halt the growth of cultural differences with our Risk And Return Relationship PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Focus on bringing about acceptance.
Risk Return Trade Off PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Presenting this set of slides with name - Risk Return Trade Off Powerpoint Presentation Slides. This deck consists of total of twenty nine slides. It has PPT slides highlighting important topics of Risk Return Trade Off Powerpoint Presentation Slides. This deck comprises of amazing visuals with thoroughly researched content. Each template is well crafted and designed by our PowerPoint experts. Our designers have included all the necessary PowerPoint layouts in this deck. From icons to graphs, this PPT deck has it all. The best part is that these templates are easily customizable. Just click the DOWNLOAD button shown below. Edit the colour, text, font size, add or delete the content as per the requirement. Download this deck now and engage your audience with this ready made presentation.
Visualizing the Effects of Holding Period and Data Window on Calculations of ...Ralph Goldsticker
This presentation shows how to use Cumulative Contribution Charts to visualize the relationships between investment horizon and volatility and the behavior of volatilities and correlations through time. With that information the researcher can select the sampling period and window that reflects the investment horizon and expected market environment.
Presented at the AQR Asset Management Institute conference, Perspectives: Systemic Risk in Asset Management held on 26 April 2017 at London Business School.
This document discusses concepts related to portfolio optimization and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). It provides information on calculating expected portfolio returns and volatility based on the returns and correlations of individual stocks. It also discusses how adding risk-free assets such as Treasury bills affects the efficient frontier and introduces the capital allocation line. The Sharpe ratio is presented as a measure of portfolio return relative to risk. The separation theorem and using the tangent portfolio to maximize returns for a given risk level are also summarized.
Security Analysis and Portfolio ManagementShrey Sao
Modern portfolio theory (MPT) provides a framework for constructing investment portfolios to maximize expected return based on a given level of market risk. MPT assumes investors aim to maximize returns for a given level of risk. It uses variance as a measure of risk and covariance to capture how asset returns move together. The efficient frontier graph shows the set of optimal portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a given level of risk. Individual investors select the portfolio on the efficient frontier that maximizes their utility based on their risk tolerance. MPT emphasizes diversification and the benefits of holding inefficiently priced assets.
The document discusses differences between academic and practitioner research in empirical finance. It notes that academics aim to publish and contribute to knowledge, while practitioners aim to improve returns and demonstrate thought leadership. Both should use rigorous methods and avoid biases. However, academics often make "errors" such as simplistic portfolio construction, not considering risk controls or investable universes, using long-short strategies that are hard to implement, and only reporting average full-period returns rather than sub-period performance. The document advocates for research to be more implementable for real-world investors.
Modern portfolio theory provides a framework for constructing portfolios to maximize expected return based on a given level of risk. Harry Markowitz pioneered this theory and was later awarded a Nobel Prize. Modern portfolio theory evaluates how each investment affects overall portfolio risk and return, and shows investors can optimize risk-adjusted returns by holding multiple assets. While useful for building diversified portfolios, modern portfolio theory is criticized for focusing only on variance rather than downside risk.
The document discusses the relationship between risk and return when investing. It states that there is a trade-off between expected risk and expected return, with higher risk investments typically offering higher returns to compensate investors for taking on more risk. It also discusses how diversification across multiple assets can reduce the non-systematic/diversifiable risk in a portfolio, but not the systematic/market risk that is related to movements in the overall market. The document defines beta as a measure of a stock's systematic risk relative to the market.
Harvard Management Company Investment Analysisbensigler
The document discusses Harvard Management Company's (HMC) consideration and adoption of inflation-linked bonds (TIPS) into its investment portfolio. It provides background on HMC and its goal of achieving a 6-7% average annual real return. It then explains what TIPS are and how they work, and analyzes their potential performance in different inflation scenarios. HMC ultimately recommended including a 7% allocation to TIPS in its portfolio to help hedge against inflation risk and improve risk-adjusted returns.
The document discusses the trade-off between risk and return in investments. It provides three key points:
1. Expected return represents the marginal benefit of investing while risk is the marginal cost. There is always a trade-off between higher expected return and higher expected risk.
2. The discounted cash flow (DCF) method uses three steps to value risky assets: determining expected cash flows, choosing a discount rate reflecting the asset's risk, and calculating present value.
3. Risk and return are positively correlated both across asset classes and for individual securities - investors require a higher expected return to accept more risk. However, diversification can reduce unsystematic risk for a portfolio.
Fundamental analysis involves analyzing macroeconomic conditions, industries, and individual companies. At the macroeconomic level, factors like GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and fiscal/monetary policies are examined. Industry analysis evaluates the attractiveness of industries based on their growth stage, competitive environment, and sensitivity to economic cycles. Finally, company analysis assesses the financial statements, management quality, and competitive positioning of specific firms. Together, this three-tiered fundamental analysis helps investors evaluate investment opportunities.
The document discusses the cost of equity capital and methods for estimating it. It covers estimating beta based on a firm's sensitivity to market returns. Determinants of beta include business risk from cyclicality and operating leverage, as well as financial risk from leverage. The weighted average cost of capital incorporates both equity and debt costs. Firms can potentially lower their cost of capital by increasing stock liquidity through measures like stock splits and disclosure.
Investment portfolio of risky security and efficient frontierRavi kumar
The document discusses investment portfolios containing risky securities and the efficient frontier. It defines key investment terms like portfolio and outlines the main investment options. Factors that influence investment selection are discussed like risk appetite and investment horizon. The performance of investment portfolios depends on decisions by portfolio managers regarding investment policies, stock selection, and market timing. The efficient frontier shows the optimal portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a given level of risk or lowest risk for a given return. It is found by calculating the standard deviation and mean return of individual stocks.
The document discusses the concepts of realized return, expected return, risk, and the efficient market hypothesis. It provides examples of calculating realized returns from investments in stocks and defines expected return as the average of possible future returns weighted by their probabilities. Risk is measured using variance and standard deviation, with higher values indicating greater risk. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that market prices reflect all available information.
Business Finance Chapter 11 Risk and returnTinku Kumar
This chapter discusses predicting stock market returns and measuring risk. It introduces expected returns and standard deviation as measures of average return and risk. It then discusses how new, unexpected information can impact stock prices and returns. It also introduces beta as a measure of a stock's systematic, market risk. The chapter concludes by discussing the security market line and capital asset pricing model, which relate expected return and risk by establishing the market risk premium.
Portfolio Risk And Return Analysis PowerPoint Presentation Slides SlideTeam
Presenting this set of slides with name - Portfolio Risk And Return Analysis Powerpoint Presentation Slides. Enhance your audiences knowledge with this well researched complete deck. Showcase all the important features of the deck with perfect visuals. This deck comprises of total of twenty nine slides with each slide explained in detail. Each template comprises of professional diagrams and layouts. Our professional PowerPoint experts have also included icons, graphs and charts for your convenience. All you have to do is DOWNLOAD the deck. Make changes as per the requirement. Yes, these PPT slides are completely customizable. Edit the colour, text and font size. Add or delete the content from the slide. And leave your audience awestruck with the professionally designed Portfolio Risk And Return Analysis Powerpoint Presentation Slides complete deck.
Insight Summit 2017: Intelligent Risk Taking - Active vs passive investing
Is factor investing a bubble? - René M. Stulz, Everett D. Reese Chair of Banking and Monetary Economics, Ohio State University
Presented at the third annual Insight Summit conference held on 7 November 2017 by London Business School’s AQR Asset Management Institute.
This document provides an overview of key topics related to stock markets, including how stocks are valued, how stock prices are determined, common stock market indexes, investing in foreign stocks, and regulation of stock markets. Various models for valuing common stock are presented, such as the Gordon growth model and price-earnings valuation method. Factors that can cause errors in stock valuation like problems estimating growth rates or dividends are also discussed.
Return and risk of portfolio with probabilityshijintp
This document outlines a study on predicting the return and risk of individual securities and portfolios. It discusses the objectives, methodology, variables, and limitations of the study. Regression analysis and probability assumptions are used to predict future security returns under various economic scenarios. The Sharpe model is applied to construct an optimal two-stock portfolio of Raymond and Axis Bank with an expected return of 28.14% and risk of 4.26%. The study demonstrates using historical data and fundamental analysis to estimate future security performance and portfolio risk-return.
This document describes the investment strategy of JMS Partners, a management group. They take a concentrated equity approach investing in 10-15 stocks, and use derivatives to provide downside protection. They have developed proprietary software that analyzes market data and correlates variables to identify statistically anomalous stocks and relationships. The software profiles stocks based on probability and mean reversion theory to select investments with the highest probability of success. Their strategy aims to generate superior risk-adjusted returns through a collaborative, multi-disciplinary approach combining fundamental analysis, derivatives hedging, and quantitative modeling.
Risk And Return Relationship PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
While building a diversified portfolio it is important to balance risk and returns, plan your investment strategy with our content ready easy to understand Risk and Return Relationship PowerPoint Presentation Slides. The visually appealing portfolio risk-return trade-off PowerPoint compete deck includes a set of pre-made PPT slides such as risk and return of stock bonds, and T-bills, investment strategies of predefined portfolios, risk and return of portfolio manager, measuring stock volatility proportionate, portfolio return analysis, calculating asset beta, portfolio value at risk, ranking the passive income streams impact and many more. Discuss the relationship between risk and return using security analysis and portfolio management PPT visuals. Utilize the professionally designed risk-return trade-off to structure your financial presentation. Furthermore, risk and return equation PPT visuals are completely customizable. You can add or delete the content if needed. Download this easy to use security analysis and portfolio management presentation deck to illustrate the risk-return relationship. Halt the growth of cultural differences with our Risk And Return Relationship PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Focus on bringing about acceptance.
Risk Return Trade Off PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Presenting this set of slides with name - Risk Return Trade Off Powerpoint Presentation Slides. This deck consists of total of twenty nine slides. It has PPT slides highlighting important topics of Risk Return Trade Off Powerpoint Presentation Slides. This deck comprises of amazing visuals with thoroughly researched content. Each template is well crafted and designed by our PowerPoint experts. Our designers have included all the necessary PowerPoint layouts in this deck. From icons to graphs, this PPT deck has it all. The best part is that these templates are easily customizable. Just click the DOWNLOAD button shown below. Edit the colour, text, font size, add or delete the content as per the requirement. Download this deck now and engage your audience with this ready made presentation.
Visualizing the Effects of Holding Period and Data Window on Calculations of ...Ralph Goldsticker
This presentation shows how to use Cumulative Contribution Charts to visualize the relationships between investment horizon and volatility and the behavior of volatilities and correlations through time. With that information the researcher can select the sampling period and window that reflects the investment horizon and expected market environment.
Presented at the AQR Asset Management Institute conference, Perspectives: Systemic Risk in Asset Management held on 26 April 2017 at London Business School.
This document discusses concepts related to portfolio optimization and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). It provides information on calculating expected portfolio returns and volatility based on the returns and correlations of individual stocks. It also discusses how adding risk-free assets such as Treasury bills affects the efficient frontier and introduces the capital allocation line. The Sharpe ratio is presented as a measure of portfolio return relative to risk. The separation theorem and using the tangent portfolio to maximize returns for a given risk level are also summarized.
Security Analysis and Portfolio ManagementShrey Sao
Modern portfolio theory (MPT) provides a framework for constructing investment portfolios to maximize expected return based on a given level of market risk. MPT assumes investors aim to maximize returns for a given level of risk. It uses variance as a measure of risk and covariance to capture how asset returns move together. The efficient frontier graph shows the set of optimal portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a given level of risk. Individual investors select the portfolio on the efficient frontier that maximizes their utility based on their risk tolerance. MPT emphasizes diversification and the benefits of holding inefficiently priced assets.
The document discusses differences between academic and practitioner research in empirical finance. It notes that academics aim to publish and contribute to knowledge, while practitioners aim to improve returns and demonstrate thought leadership. Both should use rigorous methods and avoid biases. However, academics often make "errors" such as simplistic portfolio construction, not considering risk controls or investable universes, using long-short strategies that are hard to implement, and only reporting average full-period returns rather than sub-period performance. The document advocates for research to be more implementable for real-world investors.
Modern portfolio theory provides a framework for constructing portfolios to maximize expected return based on a given level of risk. Harry Markowitz pioneered this theory and was later awarded a Nobel Prize. Modern portfolio theory evaluates how each investment affects overall portfolio risk and return, and shows investors can optimize risk-adjusted returns by holding multiple assets. While useful for building diversified portfolios, modern portfolio theory is criticized for focusing only on variance rather than downside risk.
The document discusses the relationship between risk and return when investing. It states that there is a trade-off between expected risk and expected return, with higher risk investments typically offering higher returns to compensate investors for taking on more risk. It also discusses how diversification across multiple assets can reduce the non-systematic/diversifiable risk in a portfolio, but not the systematic/market risk that is related to movements in the overall market. The document defines beta as a measure of a stock's systematic risk relative to the market.
Harvard Management Company Investment Analysisbensigler
The document discusses Harvard Management Company's (HMC) consideration and adoption of inflation-linked bonds (TIPS) into its investment portfolio. It provides background on HMC and its goal of achieving a 6-7% average annual real return. It then explains what TIPS are and how they work, and analyzes their potential performance in different inflation scenarios. HMC ultimately recommended including a 7% allocation to TIPS in its portfolio to help hedge against inflation risk and improve risk-adjusted returns.
The document discusses the trade-off between risk and return in investments. It provides three key points:
1. Expected return represents the marginal benefit of investing while risk is the marginal cost. There is always a trade-off between higher expected return and higher expected risk.
2. The discounted cash flow (DCF) method uses three steps to value risky assets: determining expected cash flows, choosing a discount rate reflecting the asset's risk, and calculating present value.
3. Risk and return are positively correlated both across asset classes and for individual securities - investors require a higher expected return to accept more risk. However, diversification can reduce unsystematic risk for a portfolio.
Fundamental analysis involves analyzing macroeconomic conditions, industries, and individual companies. At the macroeconomic level, factors like GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and fiscal/monetary policies are examined. Industry analysis evaluates the attractiveness of industries based on their growth stage, competitive environment, and sensitivity to economic cycles. Finally, company analysis assesses the financial statements, management quality, and competitive positioning of specific firms. Together, this three-tiered fundamental analysis helps investors evaluate investment opportunities.
The document discusses the cost of equity capital and methods for estimating it. It covers estimating beta based on a firm's sensitivity to market returns. Determinants of beta include business risk from cyclicality and operating leverage, as well as financial risk from leverage. The weighted average cost of capital incorporates both equity and debt costs. Firms can potentially lower their cost of capital by increasing stock liquidity through measures like stock splits and disclosure.
Investment portfolio of risky security and efficient frontierRavi kumar
The document discusses investment portfolios containing risky securities and the efficient frontier. It defines key investment terms like portfolio and outlines the main investment options. Factors that influence investment selection are discussed like risk appetite and investment horizon. The performance of investment portfolios depends on decisions by portfolio managers regarding investment policies, stock selection, and market timing. The efficient frontier shows the optimal portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a given level of risk or lowest risk for a given return. It is found by calculating the standard deviation and mean return of individual stocks.
The document discusses the concepts of realized return, expected return, risk, and the efficient market hypothesis. It provides examples of calculating realized returns from investments in stocks and defines expected return as the average of possible future returns weighted by their probabilities. Risk is measured using variance and standard deviation, with higher values indicating greater risk. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that market prices reflect all available information.
Business Finance Chapter 11 Risk and returnTinku Kumar
This chapter discusses predicting stock market returns and measuring risk. It introduces expected returns and standard deviation as measures of average return and risk. It then discusses how new, unexpected information can impact stock prices and returns. It also introduces beta as a measure of a stock's systematic, market risk. The chapter concludes by discussing the security market line and capital asset pricing model, which relate expected return and risk by establishing the market risk premium.
Portfolio Risk And Return Analysis PowerPoint Presentation Slides SlideTeam
Presenting this set of slides with name - Portfolio Risk And Return Analysis Powerpoint Presentation Slides. Enhance your audiences knowledge with this well researched complete deck. Showcase all the important features of the deck with perfect visuals. This deck comprises of total of twenty nine slides with each slide explained in detail. Each template comprises of professional diagrams and layouts. Our professional PowerPoint experts have also included icons, graphs and charts for your convenience. All you have to do is DOWNLOAD the deck. Make changes as per the requirement. Yes, these PPT slides are completely customizable. Edit the colour, text and font size. Add or delete the content from the slide. And leave your audience awestruck with the professionally designed Portfolio Risk And Return Analysis Powerpoint Presentation Slides complete deck.
Insight Summit 2017: Intelligent Risk Taking - Active vs passive investing
Is factor investing a bubble? - René M. Stulz, Everett D. Reese Chair of Banking and Monetary Economics, Ohio State University
Presented at the third annual Insight Summit conference held on 7 November 2017 by London Business School’s AQR Asset Management Institute.
This document provides an overview of key topics related to stock markets, including how stocks are valued, how stock prices are determined, common stock market indexes, investing in foreign stocks, and regulation of stock markets. Various models for valuing common stock are presented, such as the Gordon growth model and price-earnings valuation method. Factors that can cause errors in stock valuation like problems estimating growth rates or dividends are also discussed.
This document discusses volatility controlled investing strategies for defined benefit and defined contribution pension plans. It begins with an overview of the challenges pension plans face in generating returns while managing downside risk. It then provides examples of how volatility control strategies work by varying equity market exposure in response to changing volatility levels. Key benefits of volatility control for pension plans include downside protection, lower costs compared to other protection strategies, and better risk-adjusted returns than passive equity exposure. The document also addresses common questions about volatility control and provides references for further reading.
This document summarizes the performance of various portfolios using Neoclassical Technical Analysis versus benchmarks from April 2016 to May 2018. It finds that:
- The market neutral long/short portfolio outperformed the SPI by 26.2% total return and had lower maximum drawdowns.
- The long-only portfolio outperformed the SPI by 28% overall and 12.1% annually with lower risk than the benchmark.
- The short-only portfolio outperformed the short SMIM benchmark by 17.7% over the period.
This document is a report on portfolio management using a dynamic asset allocation strategy. It discusses selecting asset classes, calculating option deltas, constructing an insured portfolio, and engaging in dynamic asset allocation. The report analyzes Bangladeshi companies to construct an optimized portfolio of 10 stocks from 10 industries, with an initial investment of Tk 10,00,000. As Bangladesh lacks an options market, the report assumes a hypothetical option market to replicate options through continuously adjusting the proportions of underlying assets and riskless assets. The dynamic strategy aims to buy more stocks when the market rises and sell when it falls, requiring significant trading to maintain target allocations.
The document provides an overview of technical analysis and fundamental analysis for evaluating securities. It discusses various technical analysis techniques like charts, support/resistance levels, trends and indicators. It also outlines the different aspects of fundamental analysis including economic, industry and company analysis. Key factors covered in fundamental analysis include barriers to entry, threat of substitution, bargaining power of suppliers/buyers, and financial ratios. The document aims to equip readers with tools and frameworks for conducting equity analysis of stocks.
The document provides an overview of the Robert Falcon Scott Fund, including:
1) Background on the fund's history and expansion over time through various partnerships and rebranding.
2) The fund's investment philosophy which focuses on a quantitative strategy that aims to create sustainable long-term wealth through effective risk management.
3) Details on the fund's strategy which utilizes a proprietary quantitative framework to select stocks and implement gearing based on individual client risk profiles, with the goal of outperforming the FTSE/JSE Top 40 benchmark.
This document provides an overview of a financial markets analysis course presented by Jonathan L. Ravelas. It includes biographical information about Ravelas, noting his experience and credentials in financial markets spanning over 25 years. It also outlines the course modules which will cover various topics including equities, fixed income, currencies, and the relationship between financial markets and the economy. Risk factors associated with investments such as price risk, income risk, and interest rate risk are defined.
Short Selling: An Important Tool for Price Discovery and Liquidity in the Fin...HedgeFundFundamentals
The new presentation gives users valuable information about how hedge funds and other investors participate in the marketplace through short selling.
As the presentation describes, short selling generally means borrowing an asset (a security/stock, commodity futures contract, and corporate or sovereign bond) from a broker and selling it, with the understanding that it must later be bought back (hopefully at a lower price) and returned to the broker. The short seller then closes out the short position by buying equivalent securities on the open market, or by using an identical security it already owned, and returning the borrowed security to the lender.
As many news stories highlight short selling as a negative force in our markets, the new presentation explains how short selling can be a way for investors to communicate their view on the price of an asset. Short selling also provides many other critical benefits to investors, including:
• Risk management for hedging long positions and managing portfolio risk
• Increasing efficiency in the marketplace because the transactions inform the market with their evaluation of future stock, bond, or commodity price performance
• Lowering overpriced securities by encouraging better price discovery
• Providing liquidity by increasing the number of potential sellers in the market
Learn more about the global hedge fund industry at: www.hedgefundfundamentals.com.
This investment research presentation recommends holding STAG Industrial (STAG) stock. The target price is $29.01 based on a weighted average of various valuation methods, representing an upside of 11.9% from the current price. STAG is well-positioned for growth due to strategic acquisitions expanding its diversified portfolio and advantages exposure to the growing automotive industry. However, risks include potential liquidity issues and interest rate hikes affecting property acquisitions.
1. The document summarizes a presentation given by Andy Rallis, David Schrager, and Denys Semagin on risk managing living benefits at an equity-based insurance guarantees conference in Tokyo, Japan.
2. It discusses ING's experience during the financial crisis, including how their hedge program continued operating and helped reduce volatility, as well as some challenges they faced around basis risk and lapse modeling.
3. The presentation compares different approaches to lapse modeling for reserving and pricing, and argues that an early exercise approach is best suited for modern financial management as it guarantees profitability.
The document outlines the process of portfolio management across four parts. It discusses establishing investment objectives and policies, constructing a portfolio using diversification and asset allocation strategies, maintaining the portfolio through active or passive management, and protecting it through hedging strategies and derivatives. Performance is evaluated based on return and risk metrics to ensure objectives are met. Fiduciary duties require managers to act in clients' best interests when overseeing their money and investments. The portfolio process aims to balance risks and returns through various economic conditions.
The document provides a business report for the Dec. 1, 2012 General Shareholders Meeting of Alexander Islands. It summarizes the company's objectives to maximize cash inflows and minimize cash outflows. It analyzes revenue, costs, inventory levels, and sales and procurement strategies over 11 rounds. While surplus grew overall, inventory levels were too high and unstable demand led to losses in rounds 9 and 11 when inventories ran low. The company needs to better manage inventories and control costs like warehouse expenses to improve profits.
The document discusses different types of financial institutions that facilitate securities trading, including investment banks, brokers, dealers, and venture capital firms. It describes the roles of investment banks in underwriting stocks and bonds, mergers and acquisitions, and private equity. Brokers and dealers facilitate trading on secondary markets through services like executing orders, providing research, and creating liquidity. Regulations established the SEC and require registration of new securities and ongoing reporting.
This document discusses perspectives on active and passive money management. It begins by defining active and passive investors, with passive investors taking a buy-and-hold approach to minimize costs while active investors seek to outperform indexes by identifying individual stocks. It also explains the differences between relative and absolute return vehicles, as well as the concepts of alpha and beta. The document then covers the top-down fundamental analysis process and how stocks with solid fundamentals can outperform over long horizons. It provides examples of how active managers identify stocks and examines the record of professional money managers. The document concludes by discussing market efficiency, behavioral finance, and how information becomes incorporated into securities prices.
Quarterly report for our investors - First Quarter 2018BESTINVER
During the first quarter of 2018, the international portfolio fell 3.3% compared to a 4.3% fall in the European market index. Over the long term, the portfolio has outperformed with returns of 4.38% over 3 years and 10.76% over 5 years. The portfolio is trading at a potential growth of 54% from its current net asset value to its target value. Recent portfolio activity included selling positions that had achieved strong gains and reduced exposure, and using market fluctuations to add undervalued companies with good long-term potential such as Smith & Nephew.
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Short Sellers Behavior In Japanese market (N>30)
1. The Analysis of Short Sellers’
Behaviour in Japanese Stock Market
Sardor Mirzaev
2. • Short sales
• Results from Boehmer et al. 2018
• Empirical Analysis
• Study Case
• Conclusions
12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 2
Overview
3. Broker
Short
seller
Market
12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 3
Short sales
Step 1
Step 4
Step 2
Step 3
Step 1. A short seller borrows a stock from a broker
Step 2. The short seller immediately sells the stock on the market
Step 3. The short seller buys the stock from the market
Step 4. The short seller returns the borrowed stock to the broker
4. • Short sales as tool to reduce the strong deviation from prices
Stabilizing the price by offering demand for stocks
• Short sales constrains
The policy of market for certain stocks. Overvaluation
• Short Squeeze
Heterogeneity of traders – certain shorts may not be profitable due to adverse price
movement forces the positions to be covered (to close positions as soon as possible to reduce
losses).
12/14/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 4
Short sales
5. Short sales in JPX, time frame – 22 month, 4,133 reported short positions in 889 stocks, 176 institutions/short sellers
1. Using regression analysis, significant positive return on stock performance around large cover trades:
𝑦 = 𝛽0 +𝑏1 𝑥1 + 𝑏2 𝑥2+. . . +𝑏 𝑛 + 𝜀
the return is 0.32% on the covering day, which is not significant leading to fact that short sellers not only use private
information when establishing
2. Going short and closing position
• Cox proportional hazard model that allows for the correlation between the observations within each stock and for the
variation in the log hazard function across stocks:
ℎ 𝑡 = ℎ0 𝑡 ∙ 𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝑏𝑖 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏2 𝑥2+. . . +𝑏 𝑛 𝑥 𝑛)
The hazard ratio of 0.87 implies that a 1% increase in the cumulative position return reduces the exit probability by
13%
An increasing position return implies an increasing loss to short sellers; therefore, the probability of observing a
covering decision declines with greater position losses.
12/14/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 5
Boehmer et al. 2018
6. Main results
1. The average covering trade size is economically significant with positive returns
• Average covering trade size is 0.12% of
2. Short sellers use the private information when closing their positions.
• Privileges of private information
3. Covering is more likely when the short position is more profitable
• which could be interpreted as a “disposition” effect
4. Covering is more likely when the market is liquid
• Selling and buying quickly at sustainable prices
5. Informed short sellers use brokerages
• Local and international
12/14/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 6
Boehmer et al. 2018
7. 12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 7
-
200
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1,000
0
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400
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6.8.18
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30.9.18
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10.10.18
15.10.18
20.10.18
25.10.18
30.10.18
Millions
Thousands
Total Shorted and Total Covered Positions
covered shorts only shorted
• Observation time frame : 01.08.2018 – 31.10.2018, 63 trading days
• Reported short selling positions – approx. JPY 73 Billion
• Reported covered positions 1218 (at least 0.25% outstanding)
• Information sensitivity
• Big amount of successful covered stocks are in short period of time
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1.8.18
6.8.18
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25.10.18
30.10.18
Number of Sellers with Open and Closed Positions
Total positions Closed positions
Announcement of the trade tariffs on Chinese goods in US
Empirical Analysis
8. • The average covering trade 17% - significant
• The return of covered positions higher in t+1 and t+2
12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 8
Empirical Analysis
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Return ratio in days
closing short positions in days reported day
0.01%
1.01%
2.01%
3.01%
4.01%
5.01%
6.01%
7.01%
8.01%
9.01%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Return ratio of covered positions
9. Positive future returns are higher after covering by brokerage firms
Dominant share of successful covered positions are executed by international brokerage firms and financial
institutions
12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 9
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00
JPM Securities Japan Co Ltd.
Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited
AQR Capital Management, LLC
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft, LondonvUK
Integrated Core Strategies (Asia) Pte. Ltd.
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft, London
Nomura International plc
Anchor Bolt Capital, LP
Citigroup Global Markets Limited
Integrated Core Strategies (Asia) Pte. Ltd.
Aristeia Capital, L.L.C.
Nomura International plc
Nomura International plc
GOLDMAN SACHS INTERNATIONAL
JPM Securities Japan Co Ltd.
THOUSANDS
The Sellers with Covered Shares
Empirical Analysis
10. The rate of closing is relatively small than opened positions( 22% on average)
• Postponing closing time, the seller will face risks to bear loses in short term, when short
covering most effective.
• Sellers cover short at time t and most shorted stocks have been reported at t+2, t+4 days
• Going short later at tome t+3 and postponing closing time, the seller loses and faces short
squeeze
12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 10
Empirical Analysis
11. 12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 11
Case study
We consider shares of Toshiba shorted by Merrill Lynch International
• reports their outstanding positions on 1st of August
• going short on 27th of July, and covering on 1st of August
• Eventually going again short on 3rd and covering on 6th August
The sum of covered stocks in these trading days composes 126,2 million JPY.
While the price of the stock recovers on 7th of August, which is aliened with E. Fama’s theory of Efficient
Market Hypothesis, with semi-strong-form of efficiency
We suppose that international players are better informed about expected changes and hold private
information
• Significant covered positions were at t+1 and reported at t+3
12. Price decrease was observed with 26 times at least 1% and 14 times at lest 5% respectively in 62
trading days
12/14/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 12
Case study
26.5
27
27.5
28
28.5
29
29.5
30
30.5
31
31.5
The price changes of Toshiba Corp , in USD
27.9
28.2
28.5
28.8
29.1
29.4
29.7
30
30.3
30.6
30.9
31.2
The price changes of Toshiba Corp , in USD
28
28.5
29
29.5
30
30.5
31
31.5
19/07/201808/08/201828/08/201817/09/201807/10/201827/10/201816/11/2018
inUSD
Price Change in linear regression
13. 12/14/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 13
Case study
y = -0.0751x + 30.636
R² = 0.7385
28
29
30
31
32
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
AxisTitle
Axis Title
Price change ( 1.Aug-15.Sept)
14. Covered positions = Outstanding positions – last reported short positions
12/14/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 14
Empirical Analysis
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ratio dates
cover date report date
2018/09/11 2018/09/07 0.65% 42,988,583 42,988 2018/09/05 0.66% 0.01% 18,645.22 2 4
2018/09/25 2018/09/20 0.66% 43,140,965 43,140 2018/09/07 0.65% 0.01% 18,645.22 13 5
2018/09/26 2018/09/21 0.42% 631,191 631 2018/09/20 0.52% 0.10% 186,452.19 1 5
2018/09/27 2018/09/25 6.57% 42,856,301 428,563 2018/09/21 0.65% -5.92% 11,037,969.64- 4 2
2018/09/28 2018/09/26 0.65% 4,295,803 42,958 2018/09/25 6.57% 5.92% 11,037,969.64 1 2
2018/10/01 2018/09/27 0.66% 4,318,803 43,188 2018/09/26 0.65% 0.01% 18,645.22 1 4
2018/10/02 2018/09/28 0.65% 4,287,688 42,876 2018/09/27 0.66% 0.01% 18,645.22 1 4
Date of Report
Date of
Calculation
Ratio of Short
Positions to
Shares
Outstanding
Number of
Short Positions
in Shares
Number of Short
Positions in
Trading Units
Date of
Calculation in
Previous
Reporting
Ratio of Short
Positions in
Previous
Reporting
ratio Value USD short date
report
date
15. Does forecasting of the
price suggest
to open or close positions?
ARIMA model
Box.test(fitlnstock $resid, lag = 15, type = "Ljung-Box")
Box-Ljung test
alpha = 5, p-value = 0.5409
alpha = 10, p-value = 0.1035
alpha = 15, p-value = 0.2104
The forecasted price 29.6
12/14/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 15
Case study
01/08/18 15/08/18 01/09/18 15/09/18 20/09/18
16. 1. Going short are significantly profitable .Short covering perform positive return
2. Some short sellers are privately informed about positive future events and have timing
ability in covering positions. We observed that short sellers have timing ability when they
open short positions and close them.
3. Disclosure of covered positions doesn’t affect on the volume of short sellers activity
4. We found out positive price reaction to short coverings. Short sellers help incorporate
negative information into prices.
5. Short sellers face short squeeze, however short sellers don’t short when the information is
already in the market.
12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 16
Conclusion
17. Motivations going short:
• To profit in bearish market.
o Without short-selling it can be difficult to make money from a down market
• To hedge the downside risk of a long position in the same security or a related one with short positions
• Position of private info
o the seller is good at finding at companies where something is going wring which you believe will eventually
result in a decrease in the stock price.
▪ Adverse price movements
▪ Short sale constraints and Overpricing
▪ Price appreciation short sale constraint
12/14/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 17
Conclusion
18. Pitfalls:
• Shares are difficult to borrow have a “hard to borrow ” fee.
• A short seller can anytime close out short position for a difficult-to-borrow stock, because the
lenders are demanding it back. This can lead to unprecedented losses for short seller.
• The short seller also has to pay to the lenders spin-offs and bonus share issues
• The short seller is responsible for making dividend payments to the lender on the shorted
stock
• If short positions are kept open over an extended period, the interested payable can be add
up noticeably
• When the heavily shorted stock moves sharply higher, due to positive development in the
market, the traders rush to buy the stock to cover their positions which are typically further
moves the price even higher.
• Recall risk – unable to sell the stock and cover with profit
12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 18
Conclusion
19. Further research to improve the study of behaviour of the sellers:
• “Quantifying Trading Behaviour in Financial Markets Using Google Trends” Tobias Preis et al. in
2013
o Better understanding of collective human behaviour
o Google Trends data may have also been able to anticipate certain future trends
o Findings of patterns that may be interpreted as “early warning signs” of stock market moves by
analysing changes in Google query volumes for search terms related to finance
• Google Trends search query volumes for certain terms can be used in the construction of
profitable trading strategies.
o the collection of these traced data helps to predict the behaviour of stock prices, allowing sellers to
review these analysis as additional factors to open short positions on certain stocks in anticipated
date
12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 19
Conclusion
21. • He analysed closing prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
o Time series of closing prices p(t (DJIA) on the first day of trading in each week t covering the period
from 5 January 2004 until 22 February 2011. The colour code corresponds to the relative search
volume changes for the search term debt, with Δt = 3 weeks. Search volume data are restricted to
requests of users localized in the United States of America
12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 21
Conclusion
22. • Comparing strategies:
1. Google Trends strategy portfolio using search volume data
Sell at price p(t) on Monday if ∆𝑛 𝑡 + 1, ∆𝑡 > 0 and buy at p(t+1) on next Monday
Buy at p(t) on Monday if ∆𝑛 𝑡 + 1, ∆𝑡 < 0 and sell at p(t+1) on next Monday.
The symmetric impacts on the cumulative return R of a strategy's portfolio
R= log 𝑝 𝑡 − 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑝 𝑡 + 1 for short positions,
R= 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑝 𝑡 + 1 − log 𝑝 𝑡 for large positions
2. Buy and hold strategy
Position trading, is an investment strategy where an investor buys stocks and holds them for a long
time
3. Random investment strategy
3.1. momentum investing
3.2. investment based on the relative strength indicator of stocks
3.3. Up and down persistency, where investment one day is the opposite of market direction the day
prior
3.4. Investing based on the moving average convergence/divergence of the stock
12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 22
Conclusion
23. 12/13/2018 QBER Univeristy of Kiel 23
Conclusion
Cumulative performance of an investment strategy based on Google Trends data
The Google Trends strategy using the search volume of the term debt would have yielded a profit of 326%.