SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 44
Download to read offline
1
Department of Finance,
University of Dhaka
Report on
Portfolio Management:
Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy
Submitted to
Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam, FCMA
Professor
Department of Finance
University of Dhaka
Course Name: Financial Derivatives
Course Code: F- 503
Submitted by
Md. Monjurul Ahsan
Id No: 19-099 (BBA)
20-376 (MBA)
Section-A
MBA 20th
Batch
Department of Finance
University of Dhaka
Date of Submission: 30-01-2019
2
Letter of Transmittal
January 30, 2019
To
Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam
Professor
Department of Finance
University of Dhaka
Sir,
Here is the report of the group term paper that you assigned us to work on “Portfolio Management:
Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy” fixing the date of submission on January 30, 2019.
The topic that you have given us is really an important & interesting fact for the finance students
in acquiring practical orientation of dynamic asset allocation strategy.
We thank you for choosing us for working on this topic.
Yours sincerely
…………………………………
Md. Monjurul Ahsan
ID: 19-099 (BBA)
20-376 (MBA)
Section-A
20th Batch
Department of Finance
University of Dhaka
3
Acknowledgement
I express my thanks to our dear course teacher Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam for assigning me the
report dealing with dynamic asset allocation strategy.
The presentation of this report is of a great expectation in our MBA program and I am quite happy
to submit it dully applying that I think should have to be included. Theoretical knowledge is valued
when it is successfully applied in practical scenario. In this respect I found this report a great
opportunity to deal with some knowledge about dynamic asset allocation strategy.
So lastly I would again like to express our heartfelt thanks to our course teacher for providing the
theoretical knowledge and valuable guidelines related to the topic assigned.
4
Executive Summary
Portfolio insurance is a dynamic trading strategy designed to protect a portfolio from market
declines while preserving the opportunity to participate in market advances. Several portfolio
insurance methods exist and are used in practice. The best-known strategy involves trading in
“real” and /or “synthetic” options. With the introduction of exchange-traded index put options, it
seemed theoretically possible for an investor to use these contracts to insure well-diversified
portfolios, especially index funds. For some reasons, most investors prefer not to use the option
market for insuring the portfolios. Hence it calls for the dynamic trading strategy replicating the
option strategy to insure the portfolio. In this strategy, the manager replicates an option through a
process of continually revising, in a prescribed manner, the proportions of a portfolio consisting
of the underlying the asset and the riskless asset. Besides the complex nature of the underlying
option pricing theory, the dynamic strategy calls for buying more stock when the market is going
up and selling off some stock as the market goes down. In this report there is thorough analysis of
the economy, industry and selected companies in order to develop a well-diversified optimum
portfolio of 10 stocks. The ten selected companies are from 10 different industries. The portfolio
is constructed of Tk 10, 00,000 and in dynamic asset allocation. The proportions allocated to the
underlying portfolio and the riskless asset change every period, so that the dynamic insurance
strategy requires a significant amount of trading. As in Bangladesh there is no market for derivative
securities, I assumed a hypothetical option market for this dynamic asset allocation strategy.
5
Table of Contents
Executive summary....................................................................................................................4
Introduction............................................................................................................................. -9
Asset Class Selection........................................................................................................ 17-18
Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy.................................................................................. 19-23
5.1 Delta Calculation ................................................................................................... 23-24
5.2 Insured Portfolio ..........................................................................................................25
5.3 Put Option Dynamics.............................................................................................. 25-26
5.4 Call Option...................................................................................................................27
6. Dynamic Asset Allocation............................................................................................. 28-39
7. Comparison.................................................................................................................... 40-41
8.Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................42
6
Introduction
Origin of the report
For the partial fulfillment of the study, our honorable course teacher, Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam
assigned me to report on “Portfolio Management: Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy”. To conduct
the report at first I wanted to know the procedures of constructing the portfolios with given amount
of initial investment which will provide knowledge about how insurance can be achieved.
Background of the Report
To the investor, insurance of portfolio is crucial. Options in the market of Bangladesh are not
available, but we can replicate them to construct insured portfolio which will provide a certain
return. Without dynamic asset allocation, there have been some strategies that don’t provide
portfolio insurance though the return is higher, but, the investor is always at risk and risk-averse
investors might not come in the market out of this scenario.
Objective of the Report
To be honest, the objective of the study is to fulfill the requirement of our course on International
Business. Other objectives behind conducting this study are as follows:
 To enhance our practical knowledge
 To know how Dynamic asset allocation strategy works
 To acquire knowledge about the procedures constructing insured portfolio.
 To compare dynamic asset allocation strategy with other methods.
 To explore how portfolio insurance provides cushion to investors.
Methodology
To accomplish the task we take help from our text book, articles, Dhaka Stock Exchange, and
different web sites.
Limitation of the Report
The major limitations encountered are as follows:
 Lack of adequate information
 Nonexistent options market in Bangladesh
7
 Lack of Experience
 Lack of adequate time relative to the volume of the report
 Limitation of Knowledge
Dynamic Asset Allocation
One of the active asset allocation strategies is dynamic asset allocation, with which one constantly
adjust the mix of assets as markets rise and fall, and as the economy strengthens and weakens.
With this strategy one sell assets that are declining and purchase assets that are increasing, making
dynamic asset allocation the polar opposite of a constant-weighting strategy. For example, if the
stock market is showing weakness, investors sell stocks in anticipation of further decreases; and if
the market is strong, investors purchase stocks in anticipation of continued market gains.
In this strategy, the manager replicates an option through continuously revising the proportions of
a portfolio consisting of the underlying asset (stock/bond) and the riskless asset (bond/T-bill) to
insure portfolio’s value. This strategy requires buying more stock when the market is going up and
selling off some stock as the market goes down. The proportions allocated to the underlying risky
asset & the riskless asset change every period, so this strategy requires a significant amount of
trading. The number of units of the underlying risky asset that must be held long at any given
moment will be given by the call option’s “Delta”. The amount of riskless asset to hold is
determined by subtracting the value of the units held in the underlying asset from the total value
of the insured portfolio.
Many experts believe that what an investor buys or sells is more important than when he or she
buys or sells it. This is the essence of asset allocation. Because many asset classes tend to rise and
fall together, a portfolio’s overall return is much more affected by how the portfolio is allocated
rather than the specific securities chosen. A well-known 1986 study by Brinson, Hood and Bee
bower confirmed that 95% of the time, asset allocation determined a portfolio’s returns rather than
the specific securities chosen.
A dynamic asset allocation strategy is a mix of active and passive investing. On one hand the
investor keeps a consistent, long-term asset allocation and does not alter that based on short-term
market swings or stock fads. On the other hand, the investor buys and sells securities in his
portfolio occasionally in order to keep the portfolio aligned with the original weightings.
8
Merits of Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy
 Often cheaper than active trading
 The strategy requires less in trading commissions and advisory fees.
 Reduced downside risk as investments are avoid on declining markets
 Better exploitation of changing economic scenarios and
 Benefit of diversification of investments.
Disadvantages of Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy
 The need of active management of portfolio
 Chance of loss because of wrong market interpretation and wrong investing decisions
 High risk when compared to strategic and tactical methods.
Process of dynamic asset allocation
There are some steps by which dynamic asset allocation strategy can be made successful. In a flow
chart all the relevant step is given below:
1. Put Option Dynamics
2. Insured Portfolio Dynamics
3. Call Option Deltas
4. Asset Allocation
9
1. Put option dynamics
In this step all the put prices of each step have to be finding out from the strike prices. It helps to
find out the deltas of call which is very much essential for constructing a new portfolio.
2. Insured portfolio dynamics
The total value of risky and risk free investment will be combined which is known as insured
portfolio. In each of the time period this amount will be find out. Basically it represents the new
portfolio amount.
3. Call option delta
To construct new portfolio call option delta helps very much. The difference between up and down
movement stock price will be divided by the respective put option value difference to find out the
delta value.
4. Asset allocation
Due to the changes in call option delta value in each period asset allocation also changes.
According to call option delta shares may be bought or sold out. If delta increases then some new
risky shares have to buy and with the same amount risk free asset have to sell. On the other hand
if delta decreases than the previous time step then some risky shares have to sell and with the same
amount some risk free asset have to include. In each step risk free asset will be increased at the
risk free rate. Through this way asset allocation has been done and new portfolio has been formed.
10
Three Steps Analysis
Economy Analysis:
The economy of Bangladesh is a rapidly developing market-based economy. Its per capita income
in 2018 was estimated to be US$ 1314 (adjusted by GDP Per Capita). According to the
International Monetary Fund, Bangladesh ranked as the 44th largest economy in the world in 2018
in PPP terms and 57th largest in nominal terms, among the Next Eleven (N-11) of Goldman Sachs
and D-8 economies, with a gross domestic product of US$306 billion in PPP terms and US$115.6
billion in nominal terms.
Bangladesh's economy has grown roughly 6% per year since 1996 despite political instability, poor
infrastructure, corruption, insufficient power supplies, slow implementation of economic reforms,
and the 2008-09 global financial crisis and recession. Although more than half of GDP is generated
through the service sector, almost half of Bangladeshis are employed in the agriculture sector with
rice as the single-most-important product. Garment exports, the backbone of Bangladesh’s
industrial sector and 80% of total exports, surpassed $21 billion last year, 18% of GDP. The sector
has remained resilient in recent years amidst a series of factory accidents that have killed over
1,000 workers and crippling strikes that shut down virtually all economic activity. Steady garment
export growth combined with remittances from overseas Bangladeshis, which totaled almost $15
billion and 13% of GDP IN 2018, are the largest contributors to Bangladesh’s current account
surplus and record foreign exchange holdings.
Textile industry:
The textile and clothing (T&C) industries provide the single source of economic growth in
Bangladesh's rapidly developing economy. Exports of textiles and garments are the principal
source of foreign exchange earnings. Agriculture for domestic consumption is Bangladesh’s
largest employment sector. By 2002 exports of textiles, clothing, and ready-made garments (RMG)
accounted for 77% of Bangladesh’s total merchandise exports. By 2013, about 4 million people,
mostly women, worked in Bangladesh's $19 billion-a-year industry, export-oriented ready-made
garment (RMG) industry. Bangladesh is second only to China, the world's second-largest apparel
exporter of western brands. Sixty percent of the export contracts of western brands are with
European buyers and about forty percent with American buyers only 5% of textile factories are
owned by foreign investors, with most of the production being controlled by local investors. As
11
Textile industry is not reached its maturity stage yet investment in these industries will generate a
good return for the investors and for this reason I have selected companies from these industries
in the portfolio.
Pharmaceutical industry:
Pharmaceutical is the core of Bangladesh’s Healthcare sector, and serves as one of the most
important manufacturing industry. With a history since 1950s, the industry has now turned one of
the most successful pharmaceuticals manufacturing industry among the developing countries.
Presently, the industry meets 97% of local demand and exports to more than 80 countries. The
industry has been experiencing robust growth over the last few years. A local industry supporting
drug policy and effective regulatory framework, along with TRIPS relaxations are the key reasons
for success of the industry. As Pharmaceutical industry is in a growth stage in industry life cycle
there is a probability of making better investment return in this industry.
Cement Industry:
Development of cement industry in Bangladesh dates back to the early-fifties but its growth in real
sense started only about a decade. The country has been experiencing an upsurge in cement
consumption for the last five years. Government gave permission for establishing cement
industries in Bangladesh in FY1995. Initially the cement industry took place without the proper
analysis of the demand and supply of cement in the country. Within the span of the two to three
years, industry attained expanded capacity of the product with stable growth rate of consumption.
Considering the “Life cycle of the industry‟, currently cement industry of Bangladesh is in the
growth stage. Sales of cement are increasing due to an enormous demand for cement in both the
local and foreign markets. The industry realized about 30% and 21% growth in 2009 and 2010
respectively after suppressed demand from previous years.
Food and Allied Industry:
The food processing industry in Bangladesh represents one of the major potential sectors within
the industrial segments in terms of contribution to value addition and employment. The sector
accounts for over 22% of all manufacturing production and employs about 20% of labor forces.
All food processing enterprises account for 2% of the national GDP. The food processing sector
12
includes processing of cereals, pulses & oilseeds, bakery & confectionary, fruits and vegetables,
dairy, carbonated beverages and various other food items.
Food industry is a rapidly growing sector in Bangladesh, employing a significant portion of the
labor force in the country. Between 2004 and 2010, the food processing industry in Bangladesh
grew at an average 7.7 percent per annum. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, in its 25006 Economic
Census, reported that there were approximately 246 medium sized food processing industries
employing 19 percent of the industrial manufacturing workforce in Bangladesh or 8 percent of the
total manufacturing labor force. The industry employs 2.45 percent of the country's total labor
force and its share in the GDP was 2.01 percent in 2010. There are also numerous small scale
factories and domestic units engaged in food processing throughout the country. According to
some industry analysts, the food processing sector in Bangladesh is a 4.5 Billion US Dollar
industry. In 2010, Bangladesh exported over $700 million worth of processed food and beverages,
over 60 percent of them were shrimp and fish products.
Fuel and power industry:
Electricity is a key ingredient for the socio-economic development of the country. The government
has given top priority to development of the sector considering its importance in the overall
development of the country. The government has set the goal of providing electricity to all citizens
by 2021. Adequate and reliable supply of electricity is an important pre-requisite for attracting
both domestic and foreign investment.
As the power sector is a capital-intensive industry, huge investments are required in order to
generate addition to the capacity. Competing demands on the government resources and declining
levels of external assistance from multilateral and bilateral donor agencies constrained the
potential for public investment in the power sector. Recognizing these trends, the government of
Bangladesh amended its industrial policies to enable private investment in the power sector.
Fuel & power industry are oligopolistic in nature. These two industries have been making a lot of
profit. The current state of our power sector is very poor. So it has huge scope of growth. That’s
why I included companies from this industry.
13
Tannery industries:
In Bangladesh the leather industry is well established and ranked fourth in terms of earning foreign
exchange. In consideration of being a value added sector the (Government of Bangladesh (GoB),
Ministry of Industry (MoI) has declared it as a priority sector. The leather products sector have
huge opportunities in generating employment , entrepreneurship and investment by increasing
export of higher value added products rather than finished leather and by utilizing locally made
raw material (finished leather) to convert into more value added leather products (including
footwear and other leather goods).
Statistics prepared by Export Promotion Bureau of Bangladesh for the Financial Year 2011-12,
the leather sector grew by 17.5 percent and earned $765 million in revenue. Of this $434.8 million
was attributed from leather products, accounting for approximately 57 percent of the total revenue.
The leather sector includes 220 tanneries, 3,500 MSMEs and 110 large firms2 of leather products
controlling more than 90% of the export market. Most of the enterprise enterprises are located in
Dhaka, followed by two big clusters at Bhairab and Chittagong . The sector generates direct and
indirect employment for about 850,000 3 people, including a significant number of women
particularly in the leather products industries.
Banking industry:
Banking sector of Bangladesh is one of the major sectors, which contributes significantly to the
national economy. The sector comprises a number of banks in various categories such as:
Nationalized Commercial Banks, Specialized Banks, Private Commercial Banks and Trans-
National Banks. The Banking Industry of Bangladesh at present is in the growth stage. Almost
every year new private banks are coming up, new branches are opening within two to three months,
and new customers are coming to open an account in different banks. As a result, according to July
30, 2016 there are 6 nationalized commercial banks, 2 specialized banks, 40 local private
commercial banks and 9 foreign commercial banks operating in this country.
Moreover, as on July 30, 2016 there are 60,881,322 numbers of deposit accounts and 10,462,785
numbers of advance accounts in the banks.
14
Nonbanking Financial Institution:
Financial sector is the most important sector of any economy. Currently, 44 life and general
insurance companies and 21 NBFIs listed in DSE. These two industries are the most consistent
performer since many years. These are also in the growth stage, so they have very high future
profit potentiality. Therefore investment in these industries will generate a good return for the
investors and for this reason I have selected companies from these industries in the portfolio.
Engineering Industry:
The light engineering industry in Bangladesh continues to grow each year. This labor-intensive
sector produces a diverse range of items, including import substitute machinery spares, plant
machineries, small tools, toys, consumer items and paper products for the domestic market. Most
of these enterprises are located in and around Dhaka metropolis. In the Export policy 2003-2006,
the Government of Bangladesh had identified the following five sectors to have the High Priority:
Light Engineering Products (including auto-parts and bi-cycles), Software & ICT products, Agro-
products & Agro-processing products, Leather goods and High value-added readymade garments.
Insurance Industry:
However, though the global insurance market declined but Bangladesh has seen a significant
growth over last year. Growth in the industrialized countries was -- 2.8% for life and -- 0.6% for
non-life insurance, however, emerging markets grew at a rate of 4.2% for life and 2.9% for non-
life insurance.
Company Analysis:
I have chosen 10 companies from those 10 industries. I tried to diversify as much as possible. As
banking sector’s contribution was 7.4% and 4.49% according to February 12 and 11 of the total
capital market I have taken two dominant and growing companies Islami Bank for portfolio
construction. Textile industry comprises about 8.64% and 7.08% of capital market so I chose
Square Textile which market share is almost 30% and making continuous profit and listed as A
category share in DSE. Pharmaceutical also comprises 13.84% and 13.24% of overall market so I
choose Square Pharma which is a growing multinational company operated in Bangladesh. From
Tannery industries I choose Bata Shoe which is a market leader and growing firm. As both
insurance and nonbanking finance institution comprises 4.77% and 3.72% of capital market I
15
choose Prime insurance and Lanka Bangla Finance two renowned companies within their sector.
From food and allied sector I choose Bangas for its growth opportunities and positive profit making
and choose Padma oil from fuel and power sector which also comprises 16.25% of overall capital
market. From engineering sector I have chosen Singer BD Limited. From Cement Industry I have
chosen Heidelberg Cement which is a market leader in the cement industry and performing well.
From insurance industry which comprises a good amount in market composition I have selected
Prime Insurance.
Table 1: Sector wise P/E ratio
Sector name P/E
Ratio
Sector Cap Sector Earning
Bank 11.03 411,798,451,840 40,197,073,552
Cement 38.83 53,862,493,722 2,487,445,101
Ceramics Sector 20.37 21,975,535,682 606,053,639
Engineering 15.85 116,693,607,327 5,152,146,890
Financial Institutions 25.36 90,953,609,789 8,074,706,542
Food & Allied 15.66 225,704,358,664 7,189,690,168
Fuel & Power 12.93 269,910,804,296 21,394,730,606
Insurance 16 90,235,000,147 4,491,202,611
IT Sector 17.41 3,610,643,261 207,435,341
Jute 2086.88 646,592,400 3,449,280
Miscellaneous 23.92 69,909,936,693 2,131,790,043
Paper & Printing 20.5 2,076,476,000 151,138,400
Pharmaceuticals &
Chemicals
18.74 329,740,523,223 14,478,007,073
Services & Real Estate 18.38 20,058,576,564 547,189,254
Tannery Industries 25.70 25,934,584,533 1,009,161,308
Telecommunication 16.41 490,099,553,921 19,922,836,039
Textile 15.78 82,521,354,118 6,897,400,867
Travel & Leisure 20.29 27,130,328,960 1,601,240,261
We calculate P/E excluding :
Z category.
Shares of OTC.
Shares which are not traded for a long time.
16
Asset class selection
Industries selected to make this portfolio:
 Bank
 NBFI
 Textile
 Food and allied
 Cement
 Fuel and power
 Telecommunication
 General Insurance
 Engineering
 Pharmaceuticals and Chemical
I have selected these industries because of the growth rate of industries & diversification of risk.
Selection Criteria of Assets:
Criteria are followed to select individual security. These are:
 Listed in Dhaka Stock Exchange
 Listed before January 01, 2006
 ‘A’ category share.
 Growth firm.
 Having significant market share on underlying sector.
17
Selection of Individual Asset:
The securities selected are as follows:
Sector Company
Bank AB Bank
Textile APEX SPINNING & KNITTING MILLS LIMITED
Engineering Aftab Automobiles
Pharmaceuticals IBNSINA Pharmaceuticals
Telecom GP
NBFI Lankabangla
Cement Lafarge Surma Cement
Fuel and power Jamuna oil
Ceramic RAK Ceramics
Food & Allied BATBC
Risk free asset selection:
There may be 100% risk free asset or some combination of risky and risk free asset in the portfolio
that’s why risk free asset should be determined. I have taken 91-day T-bill as the risk free asset for
constructing new portfolio. The rate in each quarter has been used to calculate the growth of risk
free asset.
Data collection:
Data have been collected from DSE stock and Bangladesh bank. The opening, closing .highest and
lowest price of the shares has been taken from the daily share price statement. Dividend
information also has taken from the exchanges. Risk free rate has been determined in quarter basis.
Portfolio construction:
Now after getting all the required information I have determined dividend adjusted price in each
quarter. Then with considering the investment and situation I have determined the value of risky
18
and risk free investment. In this case initial, higher, lower and closing values are multiplied by the
respective number of shares. Then the total closing values have been distributed among the 10
companies equally. Again by following this strategy I have got the total closing values at the end
of second quarter. After following this strategy, I have got all quarter’s total closing values. These
values have been used as strike price. Put option values have been determined by considering either
option will be exercised or not. If it will be exercised, then value of the put option will be zero
otherwise the difference between stock price and strike price.
With the help of stock price and put option value the call option delta has been calculated.
Continuous compounding has been used in the growth of risk free asset. After determining cal
option delta dynamic asset allocation has been formed for the equal weight of the both risky and
risk free asset. So with the changes of the delta new portfolio has been formed by buying or selling
risky or risk free asset. Through this I have got the insured portfolio value in each of the quarter
end.
19
Dynamic asset allocation strategy
At first some assumption has been taken before constructing dynamic asset allocation. These
are given below-
 Investment amount is 1000000 Tk.
 Initial distribution of total fund between Risky securities and T-bills is
considered to be 50:50
 The amount of investment in shares will be distributed among the 10
securities equally
 Continuous compounded risk free rate is assumed.
 Call and Put option strike prices are assumed 1080000 Tk.
Now step by step dynamic asset allocation strategy is given below:
Standard deviation determination
All the closing prices of the company have been taken in daily basis. After this dividend also been
adjusted after the record that. Return has been calculated through the log normal basis. And by
giving the equal weight portfolio standard deviation for daily basis for every quarter have been
calculated. In this case daily portfolio standard deviation has been converted into quarter through
the following formula-
Quarter portfolio standard deviation = daily standard deviation × √ number of days
Based on this formula the following portfolio standard deviation has been gotten.
20
Quarter 4 (2017)
Quarter 1 (2018)
Company ABBank Apex Spinning Aftab IBNSINA GP LankabanglaLafarge Jamunaoil RAK BATBC
Weight 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Sector Company Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Weight
Bank ABBank 0.0005783 -0.0001137 -0.0000242 0.0000221 0.0004962 0.0007327 -0.0000373 -0.0001009 -0.0000189 0.0001501 0.10
Textile Apex Spinning -0.0001137 0.0005620 -0.0000498 0.0001084 -0.0001432 0.0002103 -0.0000131 0.0000061 -0.0000051 -0.0000877 0.10
Engineering Aftab -0.0000242 -0.0000498 0.0003267 -0.0000668 0.0000647 -0.0016628 0.0000043 0.0000198 0.0000007 0.0000518 0.10
Pharmaceuticals IBNSINA 0.0000221 0.0001084 -0.0000668 0.0002429 -0.0000495 0.0002729 0.0000352 -0.0000289 -0.0000149 0.0000189 0.10
Telecom GP 0.0004962 -0.0001432 0.0000647 -0.0000495 0.0095434 0.0001546 -0.0001200 -0.0023467 -0.0001845 0.0000576 0.10
NBFI Lankabangla 0.0007327 0.0002103 -0.0016628 0.0002729 0.0001546 0.0195649 0.0001645 -0.0001188 0.0000464 -0.0000141 0.10
Cement Lafarge -0.0000373 -0.0000131 0.0000043 0.0000352 -0.0001200 0.0001645 0.0005075 0.0000543 0.0000228 0.0000246 0.10
Fuel and power Jamunaoil -0.0001009 0.0000061 0.0000198 -0.0000289 -0.0023467 -0.0001188 0.0000543 0.0007092 0.0000536 0.0000311 0.10
Ceramic RAK -0.0000189 -0.0000051 0.0000007 -0.0000149 -0.0001845 0.0000464 0.0000228 0.0000536 0.0000905 -0.0000482 0.10
Food &Allied BATBC 0.0001501 -0.0000877 0.0000518 0.0000189 0.0000576 -0.0000141 0.0000246 0.0000311 -0.0000482 0.0008377 0.10
Portfolio Return -0.000122488
Portfolio Variance 0.0002807
Portfolio Standard Deviation 0.016754948 0.1297833
Company AB Bank Apex Spinning Aftab IBNSINA GP LankabanglaLafarge Jamunaoil RAK BATBC
Weight 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Sector Company Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Weight
Bank AB Bank 0.0008691 0.0000163 0.0001508 0.0000806 0.0001136 0.0003419 0.0001140 0.0000231 0.0004974 -0.0000260 0.10
Textile Apex Spinning 0.0000163 0.0007210 0.0000647 0.0001096 -0.0000151 0.0002680 -0.0000238 0.0000692 -0.0001519 -0.0000716 0.10
Engineering Aftab 0.0001508 0.0000647 0.0003592 0.0000362 0.0001247 0.0001696 0.0005290 0.0003934 0.0001065 -0.0000558 0.10
Pharmaceuticals IBNSINA 0.0000806 0.0001096 0.0000362 0.0001318 0.0000278 0.0001317 0.0000058 0.0000219 0.0001621 -0.0000226 0.10
Telecom GP 0.0001136 -0.0000151 0.0001247 0.0000278 0.0023079 0.0000809 0.0000690 0.0000694 0.0000820 -0.0002120 0.10
NBFI Lankabangla 0.0003419 0.0002680 0.0001696 0.0001317 0.0000809 0.0116248 0.0001458 0.0000743 0.0040828 -0.0042552 0.10
Cement Lafarge 0.0001140 -0.0000238 0.0005290 0.0000058 0.0000690 0.0001458 0.0010664 0.0006830 0.0001978 -0.0000726 0.10
Fuel and power Jamunaoil 0.0000231 0.0000692 0.0003934 0.0000219 0.0000694 0.0000743 0.0006830 0.0005690 0.0001806 -0.0000313 0.10
Ceramic RAK 0.0004974 -0.0001519 0.0001065 0.0001621 0.0000820 0.0040828 0.0001978 0.0001806 0.0099927 -0.0015072 0.10
Food & Allied BATBC -0.0000260 -0.0000716 -0.0000558 -0.0000226 -0.0002120 -0.0042552 -0.0000726 -0.0000313 -0.0015072 0.0019094 0.10
Portfolio Return -0.00095636
Portfolio Variance 0.0003511
Portfolio Standard Deviation 0.018737118 0.1475362
21
Quarter 2 (2018)
Quarter 3 (2018)
Company ABBank Apex Spinning Aftab IBNSINA GP LankabanglaLafarge Jamunaoil RAK BATBC
Weight 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Sector Company Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Weight
Bank ABBank 0.0005644 0.0000511 0.0000942 0.0000133 -0.0000003 0.0001405 0.0000156 0.0000310 0.0000066 0.0000020 0.10
Textile Apex Spinning 0.0000511 0.0001109 0.0000320 0.0000224 -0.0000061 -0.0000035 -0.0000053 0.0000171 0.0000102 0.0000014 0.10
Engineering Aftab 0.0000942 0.0000320 0.0001611 0.0000224 0.0000157 0.0001354 0.0000188 0.0000477 0.0000382 0.0000151 0.10
Pharmaceuticals IBNSINA 0.0000133 0.0000224 0.0000224 0.0001895 0.0000281 0.0000556 0.0000633 -0.0000113 0.0000475 0.0000178 0.10
Telecom GP -0.0000003 -0.0000061 0.0000157 0.0000281 0.0000416 0.0000223 0.0000340 0.0000023 0.0000256 0.0000034 0.10
NBFI Lankabangla 0.0001405 -0.0000035 0.0001354 0.0000556 0.0000223 0.0008332 -0.0000377 0.0000221 0.0000800 0.0000176 0.10
Cement Lafarge 0.0000156 -0.0000053 0.0000188 0.0000633 0.0000340 -0.0000377 0.0002924 0.0000137 0.0000522 0.0000135 0.10
Fuel and power Jamunaoil 0.0000310 0.0000171 0.0000477 -0.0000113 0.0000023 0.0000221 0.0000137 0.0000557 0.0000102 0.0000042 0.10
Ceramic RAK 0.0000066 0.0000102 0.0000382 0.0000475 0.0000256 0.0000800 0.0000522 0.0000102 0.0001141 0.0000288 0.10
Food &Allied BATBC 0.0000020 0.0000014 0.0000151 0.0000178 0.0000034 0.0000176 0.0000135 0.0000042 0.0000288 0.0001901 0.10
PortfolioReturn -0.000641803
PortfolioVariance 0.0000497
PortfolioStandardDeviation 0.007050716 0.0541576
Company ABBank Apex Spinning Aftab IBNSINA GP LankabanglaLafarge Jamunaoil RAK BATBC
Weight 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Sector Company Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Weight
Bank ABBank 0.0001859 0.0000030 -0.0000495 -0.0000264 -0.0000340 0.0001004 -0.0000239 0.0000083 -0.0000034 0.0000121 0.10
Textile Apex Spinning 0.0000030 0.0005497 0.0000515 0.0001768 0.0000270 -0.0000748 0.0000467 -0.0000184 0.0000236 -0.0000246 0.10
Engineering Aftab -0.0000495 0.0000515 0.0004928 0.0002682 -0.0000072 0.0000869 0.0000903 0.0000043 0.0001448 -0.0000653 0.10
Pharmaceuticals IBNSINA -0.0000264 0.0001768 0.0002682 0.0008971 -0.0000215 -0.0000774 -0.0000115 -0.0000399 0.0000112 -0.0000785 0.10
Telecom GP -0.0000340 0.0000270 -0.0000072 -0.0000215 0.0001622 -0.0000033 0.0000182 0.0000030 -0.0000408 -0.0000215 0.10
NBFI Lankabangla 0.0001004 -0.0000748 0.0000869 -0.0000774 -0.0000033 0.0004021 0.0000577 0.0000759 0.0000922 0.0000135 0.10
Cement Lafarge -0.0000239 0.0000467 0.0000903 -0.0000115 0.0000182 0.0000577 0.0005498 0.0003295 0.0008815 -0.0000046 0.10
Fuel and power Jamunaoil 0.0000083 -0.0000184 0.0000043 -0.0000399 0.0000030 0.0000759 0.0003295 0.0004412 0.0007291 0.0000134 0.10
Ceramic RAK -0.0000034 0.0000236 0.0001448 0.0000112 -0.0000408 0.0000922 0.0008815 0.0007291 0.0023376 -0.0000073 0.10
Food &Allied BATBC 0.0000121 -0.0000246 -0.0000653 -0.0000785 -0.0000215 0.0000135 -0.0000046 0.0000134 -0.0000073 0.0000850 0.10
PortfolioReturn 0.000740908
PortfolioVariance 0.0001137
PortfolioStandardDeviation 0.010665142 0.0832974
22
Up factor and down factor determination:
After getting all the quarterly standard deviation we can calculate the up and down factor for all
the quarter by following the below formula:
U= 𝒆^𝝏√𝒕
d= 𝟏/𝒖
Finally, the up factor and down factor has been calculated for every period which has been given
below-
u d
Q4(2016) 1.13858149 0.878286
Q1(2017) 1.158975145 0.862831
Q2(2017) 1.055650897 0.947283
Q3(2017) 1.086864958 0.920078
Portfolio value and option price determination
As the initial investment is Tk 1000000 so multiplying by the up factor value of up can be made and
multiplying by the down factor value of portfolio down can be determined. This strategy has been
followed for every node of every quarter according their up and down factor.
Now the value of portfolio and option price are given below-
Portfolio value for each quarter
23
Q4(2017) 1.13858149 0.878286 1514029
Q1(2018) 1.158975145 0.862831 1393024
Q2(2018) 1.055650897 0.947283 1281690
Q3(2018) 1.086864958 0.920078 1319588
1358606
1250023
1150118
1138581
1127161
1037075
954189.7
982403.7
1011452
930614.2
856237.2
1000000
1167901
1074559
988677.7
1017911
1048010
964250.1
887184.8
878285.8
869476.1
799985.4
736048.6
757812.5
780219.9
717862.8
660489.4
Node Time Q0 Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
24
Delta calculation
Through the call option value and portfolio value call delta can be calculated. Here it has been
assumed that closing price equal to strike price. Subtracting the K from portfolio value we get
option price. And after that probability and present value factor has been calculated to find out the
up and value of call option. Now for probability calculation the following formula has been used.
P = (𝒂−𝒅)/(𝒖−𝒅)
Here,
a=𝒆^𝒓Δ𝒕
u= up factor
d= down factor
So probability for down factor will be = 1- P
Finally value of call option has been calculated through the following formula
Value of call option = 𝑒^(−𝑟𝑡)(portfolio up ×p +portfolio down×1-p)
After finding out the value of call option delta value has been calculated through the following
formula-
Delta = (𝑓𝑢−𝑓𝑑)/(𝑆0𝑢−𝑆0𝑑)
Now the delta for each quarter is given below:
25
N/A
1
N/A
1.031449
N/A
1
N/A
0.898707
N/A
0.272652
N/A
0.320895
N/A
0
N/A
0.647382
N/A
0.490454
N/A
0.577237
N/A
0
N/A
0.181739
N/A
0
N/A
0
N/A
0
N/A
Node Time Q0 Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
26
Insured Portfolio
1514029
1393024
1281690
1319588
1358606
1250023
1150118
1161105
1127161
1070458
1080000
1034517
1080000
1039643
1080000
1067368
1167901
1098791
1080000
1054534
1080000
1038585
1080000
1012610
1080000
1043751
1080000
1021118
1080000
1046334
1080000
Node Time Q0 Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
27
Put Option Dynamics
Put option Strike price (1000000*1.08) tk.= 1080000
u d a p (1-p) T-bill rate C.C Rate PVF
Q4(2016) 1.13858149 0.878286 1.032898 0.593988 0.406012 Q4(03/10/2017) 3.25% 0.032369 0.99194
Q1(2018) 1.158975145 0.862831 1.030032 0.564594 0.435406 Q1(02/01/2018) 2.97% 0.02959 0.99263
Q2(2018) 1.055650897 0.947283 1.028295 0.747568 0.252432 Q2(10/04/2018) 2.80% 0.027902 0.993049
Q3(2018) 1.086864958 0.920078 1.042150 0.731906 0.268094 Q3(03/07/2018) 4% 0.04 0.989732
1514029 0
1393023.884
0 1281690 0
1319587.647
0 1358606 0
1250022.759
0 1150118 0
1138581
22523.22 1127161 0
1037075.365
33382.60027 954189.7 125810.3
982403.7166
52113.35669 1011452 68548.03
930614.2011
109028.9625 856237.2 223762.8
1000000
67368.47349 1167901 0
1074559.145
24231.5318 988677.7 91322.3
1017911.458
36622.95017 1048010 31990.38
964250.0763
74335.27202 887184.8 192815.2
878285.8
134324.3 869476.1 210523.9
799985.4345
243765.8754 736048.6 343951.4
757812.4894
263305.0627 780219.9 299780.1
717862.7813
328471.2053 660489.4 419510.6
Q0 Q4 (2016) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
28
Call Option
91day
u d a p (1-p) T-bill rate C.CRate PVF
Q4(2016) 1.13858149 0.878286 1.032898221 0.593988 0.406012 Q4(03/10/2016) 3.25% 0.03236868 0.991940489
Q1(2017) 1.158975145 0.862831 1.030032404 0.564594261 0.435406 Q1(02/01/2017) 2.97% 0.029590282 0.992629729
Q2(2017) 1.055650897 0.947283 1.028295355 0.74756817 0.252432 Q2(10/04/2017) 2.80% 0.027902455 0.993048664
Q3(2017) 1.086864958 0.920078 1.042150 0.731906302 0.268094 Q3(03/07/2017) 4% 0.04 0.989731542
1514029 434028.8461
1393023.884
367923.0507 1281690 201689.9407
1319587.647
328391.0315 1358606 278605.934
1250022.759
220424.6806 1150118 70117.8221
1138581.49
195002.3717 1127161 47160.87365
1037075.365
34162.90078 954189.7 0
982403.7166
25361.56636 1011452 0
930614.2011
0 856237.2 0
1000000
125564.7413 1167901 87900.68019
1074559.145
63674.43991 988677.7 0
1017911.458
47270.09406 1048010 0
964250.0763
0 887184.8 0
878285.8398
26491.72291 869476.1 0
799985.4345
0 736048.6 0
757812.4894
0 780219.9 0
717862.7813
0 660489.4 0
Q0 Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
29
Dynamic asset allocation
Each and every time new portfolio is formed according to delta. Over the period investment pattern
will not be same. If market goes up then investment will be made in new shares. On the other hand
if market goes down then investment will be made in risk free asset. Now according to our delta
dynamic asset allocation has been given below:
Quarter 0
Quarter 0
100% Equity portfolio 1000000
Insured portfolio 1067368
Initial Delta 0.647382
New Portfolio
Shares (0.843127*1000000) 647381.7
T-bill 419986.7
Total 1067368
Quarter 4(2017)
100% Equity portfolio 1138581
Insured portfolio 1161105
Shares (0.84313*1061250) 737096.9
T-bill 424007.9
Total 1161105
New Delta 0.898707
Sell (.097526102*1061250) Shares 286154
Buy T-bill 286154
New Portfolio
Shares (.94065*1061250) 1023251
T-bill 710161.8
Total 1733413
30
Quarter 4b (2017)
100% Equity portfolio 878285.8
Insured portfolio 1012610
Shares (0.84313*942285) 568586.2
T-bill 444023.9
Total 1012610
New Delta 0.181739
Sell (0.3693*942285) Shares 408967.5
Buy T-bill 408967.5
New Portfolio
Shares (0.47383*942285) 159618.7
T-bill 852991.4
Total 1012610
Quarter 1a (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1319588
Insured portfolio 1319588
Shares (0.84313*1155791) 1185922
T-bill 133665.4
Total 1319588
New Delta 1.031449
Buy (0.18832*1155791) Shares 175165.1
Sell T-bill 175165.1
New Portfolio
Shares (1.03145*1155791) 1361087
T-bill -41499.7
Total 1319588
Quarter 1b (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 982403.7
Insured portfolio 1034517
Shares (0.84313*974442) 882892.8
T-bill 151624.2
Total 1034517
New Delta 0.320895
Sell (0.33858*974442) Shares 567644
Buy T-bill 567644
New Portfolio
Shares (0..50455*974442) 315248.9
T-bill 719268.2
Total 1034517
31
Quarter 1c (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1017911
Insured portfolio 1054534
Shares (0.84313*1026229) 184994.1
T-bill 869540.3
Total 1054534
New Delta 0.577237
Sell (0..08601*1026229) Shares -402582
Buy T-bill -402582
New Portfolio
Shares (0.92914*1026229) 587575.8
T-bill 466958.6
Total 1054534
Quarter 1d (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 757812.5
Insured portfolio 1021118
Shares (0.84313*865209) 137724
T-bill 883393.6
Total 1021118
New Delta 0
Sell (0.84313*865209) Shares 137724
Buy T-bill 137724
New Portfolio
Shares 0
T-bill 1021118
Total 1021118
Quarter 2a (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1393024
Insured portfolio 1393024
Shares (0.84313*1219549) 1436833
T-bill -43809.2
Total 1393024
New Delta 1
Buy Shares 218523.7
Sell T-bill 218523.7
New Portfolio
Shares (1*1219549) 1393024
T-bill 0
32
Total 1393024
Quarter 2b (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1250023
Insured portfolio 1250023
Shares (.84313*1095365) 1289335
T-bill -39312
Total 1250023
New Delta 1
Buy Shares 196091.1
Sell T-bill 196091.1
New Portfolio
Shares (1*1095365) 1250023
T-bill 0
Total 1250023
Quarter 2c (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1037075
Insured portfolio 1070458
Shares (0.50455*1028196) 332792.7
T-bill 737665.2
Total 1070458
New Delta 0.272652
Buy Shares -50032.4
Sell T-bill -50032.4
New Portfolio
Shares (0.54196*1028196) 282760.3
T-bill 787697.6
Total 1070458
Quarter 2d (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 930614.2
Insured portfolio 1039643
Shares 298629.8
T-bill 741013.3
Total 1039643
New Delta 0
Sell Shares 298629.8
Buy T-bill 298629.8
New Portfolio
Shares 0
33
T-bill 1039643
Total 1039643
Quarter 2e (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1074559
Insured portfolio 1098791
Shares 620274.9
T-bill 478515.7
Total 1098791
New Delta 0.490454
Buy Shares -93252.8
Sell T-bill -93252.8
New Portfolio
Shares (2.519892*1620038) 527022.1
T-bill 571768.5
Total 1098791
Quarter 2f (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 964250.1
Insured portfolio 1038585
Shares 556600.5
T-bill 481984.8
Total 1038585
New Delta 0
Sell (0.512999*687346.8) Shares 556600.5
Buy T-bill 556600.5
New Portfolio
Shares 0
T-bill 1038585
Total 1038585
Quarter 2g (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 799985.4
Insured portfolio 1043751
Shares 0
T-bill 1043751
Total 1043751
New Delta 0
34
New Portfolio
Shares 0
T-bill 1043751
Total 1043751
Quarter 2h (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 717862.8
Insured portfolio 1046334
Shares 0
T-bill 1046334
Total 1046334
New Delta 0
New Portfolio
Shares 0
T-bill 1046334
Total 1046334
Quarter 3a (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1514028.846
Insured portfolio 1514028.846
1 shares * 1288663.896 1514028.846
0 T-Bill 0
Total 1514028.846
Quarter 3b (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1281689.941
Insured portfolio 1281689.941
1 shares * 1154141.364 1281689.941
0 T-Bill 0
Total 1281689.941
Quarter 3c (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1358605.934
35
Insured portfolio 1358605.934
1 shares * 1157442.358 1358605.934
T-Bill 0
Total 1358605.934
Quarter 3d (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1150117.822
Insured portfolio 1150117.822
1 shares*1036617.931 1150117.822
T-Bill 0
Total 1150117.822
Quarter 3e (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1127160.874
Insured portfolio 1127160.874
0.64196 shares * 1086466.539 307322.2843
T-bill 819838.5894
Total 1127160.874
Quarter 3f (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 954189.7151
Insured portfolio 1080000
0.54196 shares * 973051.218 260161.4106
T-Bill 819838.5894
Total 1080000
Quarter 3g (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1011451.965
Insured portfolio 1080000
0 shares*975834.2708 0
T-Bill 1080000
Total 1080000
Quarter 3h (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 856237.1929
36
Insured portfolio 1080000
0 Shares * 873967.7582 0
T-Bill 1080000
Total 1080000
Quarter 3i (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1167900.68
Insured portfolio 1167900.68
0.99803 shares* 1144206.969 572801.8956
T-Bill 595098.7846
Total 1167900.68
Quarter 3j (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 988677.6976
Insured portfolio 1080000
0.99803 shares*1024764.174 484901.2154
T-Bill 595098.7846
Total 1080000
Quarter 3 k(2018)
100% Equity portfolio 1048009.619
Insured portfolio 1080000
0 shares*1027695.132 0
T-Bill 1080000
Total 1080000
Quarter 3L (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 887184.8051
Insured portfolio 1080000
0 shares*920414.9082 0
T-Bill 1080000
Total 1080000
Quarter 3m (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 869476.1361
37
Insured portfolio 1080000
0 shares * 964675.5761 0
T-Bill 1080000
Total 1080000
Quarter 3n (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 736048.6032
Insured portfolio 1080000
0 shares * 863973.9102 0
T-Bill 1080000
Total 1080000
Quarter 3p (2018)
100% Equity portfolio 780219.902
Insured portfolio 1080000
0 shares*866444.9878 0
T-Bill 1080000
Total 1080000
Quarter 3q(2018)
100% Equity portfolio 660489.3973
Insured portfolio 1080000
0 shares * 775997.5298 0
T-Bill 1080000
Total= 1080000
38
Comparison of portfolios
I have done the comparison in terms of absolute portfolio value, return on investment and Q2Q
return. And I have calculated all these values in all the following four portfolios and then compare
the result between those and try to find out which provide the best result.
1) Static Portfolio
2) 100 % T-bill Portfolio
3) Dynamic Portfolio
4) 100% equity portfolio
1. Static Portfolio
2. 100% T-Bill Portfolio
Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
Stock 711394 878600 826439 893342
T-Bill 355483.2917 358122.7552 360629.6145 364371.1467
Total 1066877 1236722 1187069 1257713
ROI 6.69% 23.67% 18.71% 25.77%
Q2Q Return 6.69% 15.92% -4.01% 5.95%
Static Portfolio Value
Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
Stock 0 0 0 0
T-Bill 1008125 1015610.328 1022719.6 1033330.316
Total 1008125 1015610 1022720 1033330
ROI 0.81% 1.56% 2.27% 3.33%
Q2Q Return 0.81% 0.74% 0.70% 1.04%
100% T-bill Portfolio Value
39
3. 100% Equity Portfolio
4. Dynamic Portfolio
Comparison
Comparison in terms of absolute portfolio Value
Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
Static Portfolio 1066877 1236722 1187069 1257713
100% T-Bill portfolio 1008125 1015610 1022720 1033330
100% equity Portfolio 1098879 1357158 1276587 1379931
Dynamic Portfolio 852991 1021118 1046334 1080000
Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
Stock 1098879 1357158 1276587 1379931
T-Bill 0 0 0 0
Total 1098879 1357158 1276587 1379931
ROI 9.89% 35.72% 27.66% 37.99%
Q2Q Return 9.89% 23.50% -5.94% 8.10%
100 % equity Portfolio Value
Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
Stock 0 0 0 0
T-Bill 852991.4449 1021117.552 1046333.987 1080000
Total 852991 1021118 1046334 1080000
ROI -14.70% 2.11% 4.63% 8.00%
Q2Q Return -14.70% 19.71% 2.47% 3.22%
Dynamic Portfolio Value
40
In case of absolute portfolio value, dynamic portfolio keeps increasing in each quarter and it has
the highest value in each quarter. So dynamic provides the best solution in each quarter. And 100%
equity portfolio provides lowest performance amongst the four in every quarter.
Comparison in terms of absolute return
Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
Static Portfolio 6.69% 23.67% 18.71% 25.77%
100% T-Bill portfolio 0.81% 1.56% 2.27% 3.33%
100% equity Portfolio 9.89% 35.72% 27.66% 37.99%
Dynamic Portfolio -14.70% 2.11% 4.63% 8.00%
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
Absolute portfolio Value
Static Portfolio 100% T-Bill portfolio 100% equity Portfolio Dynamic Portfolio
41
While I compared the among the four options, then I found out that 100% equity provides negative
return in each and every quarter. And static portfolio return was negative in the first two quarters
but it improves a little bit over the next two quarter. Both 100% T-bill and dynamic portfolio
provides positive return. 100% T-bill portfolio performs better than dynamic portfolio in the first
quarter but in the remaining three quarter dynamic portfolio provides more return.
Comparison in terms of Q2Q return
Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
Static Portfolio 6.69% 15.92% -4.01% 5.95%
100% T-Bill portfolio 0.81% 0.74% 0.70% 1.04%
100% equity Portfolio 9.89% 23.50% -5.94% 8.10%
Dynamic Portfolio -14.70% 19.71% 2.47% 3.22%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
Return on investment
Static Portfolio 100% T-Bill portfolio 100% equity Portfolio Dynamic Portfolio
42
In the first quarter both static and 100% equity portfolio provides negative result and 100% T-bill
and dynamic provides positive value. Here 100% T-bill is better than dynamic portfolio. In the
second quarter, all portfolios provide positive return and among those dynamic portfolio provides
more return. In the third quarter all the portfolios provide positive return but here 100% equity
provides the best result. In the fourth quarter dynamic portfolio provides the best result.
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
Q2Q Return
Static Portfolio 100% T-Bill portfolio 100% equity Portfolio Dynamic Portfolio
43
Conclusion
Dynamic asset allocation strategy is the better model of portfolio investment in comparison with
the static asset allocation strategy. This method provides the basis for adjustment in asset
proportion in the portfolio in terms of the changes in prices of the underlying securities. This is a
continuous process of changing the portfolio combination and structure which provides better
insurance of the portfolio value indicating the supremacy above all other methods of portfolio
construction.
Dynamic asset allocation is essential to construct new portfolio with the risky and risk free asset.
That means with the changes in delta either securities sell or buy to construct new portfolio. If
delta increases then new risky securities will be bought and if delta decreases then some securities
will be sold and risk free asset with the same amount will be bought to make new portfolio. So in
the above case by the shares of 10 companies and Treasury bill it can be possible to construct
portfolio with quarterly that’s why dynamic asset allocation strategy is used. Through this
approach investment can be hedge out as it is constructed by considering the delta of call option.
As every period portfolio construction can be changed that’s why it is dynamic asset allocation
strategy not static asset allocation strategy.
The basic dynamic trading approach involves replicating the insured portfolio’s price action with
an ever-changing combination of positions in the underlying portfolio and the risk less asset. The
proportions allocated to the underlying portfolio and the risk less asset change every period. The
dynamic insurance strategy requires a significant amount of trading. By dynamic asset allocation
it can be shown that how the same replication is accomplished (approximately) with either a stock
portfolio and short futures positions or the risk less futures.
44
References
1. Options, Futures and Other Derivative Securities by John Hull. Prantice-Hall International Inc.
2. Gibson R., Heinz Z. (1996). The Benefits and Risks of Derivative Instruments: An Economic
Perspective, Derivatives Use, Trading and Regulation. Geneva Paper.
3. World Federation of Exchanges, 2008c, “Equity derivatives and cash equity trading”, December
2008.
4. The case for Dynamic Asset Allocation by Mellon Capital Management Corporation Research
Team.
Websites
 www.dsebd.org
 www.secbd.org
 www.bb.org.bd
 www.mof.gov.bd
 www.stockbangladesh.com
 www.langkabanglaportal.com
 www.encyclopedia.com
Primary Data
 DSE Trade Information Archive
 DSE Dividend Archive

More Related Content

What's hot

Study Notes (20 Pages) | NCFM Derivatives Market Dealers Module (DMDM) | Mock...
Study Notes (20 Pages) | NCFM Derivatives Market Dealers Module (DMDM) | Mock...Study Notes (20 Pages) | NCFM Derivatives Market Dealers Module (DMDM) | Mock...
Study Notes (20 Pages) | NCFM Derivatives Market Dealers Module (DMDM) | Mock...Srinivasan Thiagarajan
 
Commodity Basics
Commodity BasicsCommodity Basics
Commodity Basicsflame2011
 
Option strategies part ii
Option strategies  part iiOption strategies  part ii
Option strategies part iiAmeya Ranadive
 
Derivatives lecture3 & 4- futures
Derivatives lecture3 & 4- futuresDerivatives lecture3 & 4- futures
Derivatives lecture3 & 4- futuresiipmff2
 
Nuts And Bolts Of Derivatives.Pdf
Nuts And Bolts Of Derivatives.PdfNuts And Bolts Of Derivatives.Pdf
Nuts And Bolts Of Derivatives.PdfPankaj Gulati
 
Options Presentation Introduction to Corporate Finance
Options Presentation Introduction to Corporate FinanceOptions Presentation Introduction to Corporate Finance
Options Presentation Introduction to Corporate Financemuratcoskun
 
Financial derivatives 2
Financial derivatives 2Financial derivatives 2
Financial derivatives 2LeenaKP
 
Clearing and settlement derivatives
Clearing and settlement derivativesClearing and settlement derivatives
Clearing and settlement derivativesRahul Hedau
 
Investment Analysis Project Presentation
Investment Analysis  Project PresentationInvestment Analysis  Project Presentation
Investment Analysis Project Presentationnroopraj24
 
Bull spread , bear spread 1.0
Bull spread , bear spread 1.0Bull spread , bear spread 1.0
Bull spread , bear spread 1.0Raggedminds
 
What is Stock and Share Market?
What is Stock and Share Market?What is Stock and Share Market?
What is Stock and Share Market?Dhanashri Academy
 
Basics of indian commodity market
Basics of indian commodity marketBasics of indian commodity market
Basics of indian commodity marketMillionetadvisors
 
Markowitz Portfolio Selection
Markowitz Portfolio SelectionMarkowitz Portfolio Selection
Markowitz Portfolio Selectionmerzak emerzak
 

What's hot (20)

Options
OptionsOptions
Options
 
Study Notes (20 Pages) | NCFM Derivatives Market Dealers Module (DMDM) | Mock...
Study Notes (20 Pages) | NCFM Derivatives Market Dealers Module (DMDM) | Mock...Study Notes (20 Pages) | NCFM Derivatives Market Dealers Module (DMDM) | Mock...
Study Notes (20 Pages) | NCFM Derivatives Market Dealers Module (DMDM) | Mock...
 
Commodity Basics
Commodity BasicsCommodity Basics
Commodity Basics
 
stock market
stock marketstock market
stock market
 
FUTURES TRADING
FUTURES TRADINGFUTURES TRADING
FUTURES TRADING
 
Option strategies part ii
Option strategies  part iiOption strategies  part ii
Option strategies part ii
 
Derivatives lecture3 & 4- futures
Derivatives lecture3 & 4- futuresDerivatives lecture3 & 4- futures
Derivatives lecture3 & 4- futures
 
Nuts And Bolts Of Derivatives.Pdf
Nuts And Bolts Of Derivatives.PdfNuts And Bolts Of Derivatives.Pdf
Nuts And Bolts Of Derivatives.Pdf
 
Options Presentation Introduction to Corporate Finance
Options Presentation Introduction to Corporate FinanceOptions Presentation Introduction to Corporate Finance
Options Presentation Introduction to Corporate Finance
 
Financial derivatives 2
Financial derivatives 2Financial derivatives 2
Financial derivatives 2
 
Fundamentals of Option Contracts
Fundamentals of Option ContractsFundamentals of Option Contracts
Fundamentals of Option Contracts
 
Options strategies
Options strategiesOptions strategies
Options strategies
 
Clearing and settlement derivatives
Clearing and settlement derivativesClearing and settlement derivatives
Clearing and settlement derivatives
 
Investment Analysis Project Presentation
Investment Analysis  Project PresentationInvestment Analysis  Project Presentation
Investment Analysis Project Presentation
 
Mutual fund
Mutual fundMutual fund
Mutual fund
 
Bull spread , bear spread 1.0
Bull spread , bear spread 1.0Bull spread , bear spread 1.0
Bull spread , bear spread 1.0
 
What is Stock and Share Market?
What is Stock and Share Market?What is Stock and Share Market?
What is Stock and Share Market?
 
Basics of indian commodity market
Basics of indian commodity marketBasics of indian commodity market
Basics of indian commodity market
 
Markowitz Portfolio Selection
Markowitz Portfolio SelectionMarkowitz Portfolio Selection
Markowitz Portfolio Selection
 
SIP
SIPSIP
SIP
 

Similar to Dynamic asset allocation strategy

48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)
48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)
48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)Ritesh Patro
 
48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)
48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)
48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)Ritesh Kumar Patro
 
Strategic & Tactical[1]
Strategic & Tactical[1]Strategic & Tactical[1]
Strategic & Tactical[1]Chris Weetman
 
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandumIDFCJUBI
 
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandumJubiIdfcHybrid
 
Module 6.1Putting aside opinions you may have regarding huma.docx
Module 6.1Putting aside opinions you may have regarding huma.docxModule 6.1Putting aside opinions you may have regarding huma.docx
Module 6.1Putting aside opinions you may have regarding huma.docxgilpinleeanna
 
Chapter-16_-Equity-Portfolio-Management-Strategies-Nhóm-Mai.pptx
Chapter-16_-Equity-Portfolio-Management-Strategies-Nhóm-Mai.pptxChapter-16_-Equity-Portfolio-Management-Strategies-Nhóm-Mai.pptx
Chapter-16_-Equity-Portfolio-Management-Strategies-Nhóm-Mai.pptxHoangPham990861
 
Aig Sun America Asset Allocation Strategies
Aig Sun America Asset Allocation StrategiesAig Sun America Asset Allocation Strategies
Aig Sun America Asset Allocation StrategiesAIGdocs
 
91506566 portfolio-management-process-of-a-financial-institution
91506566 portfolio-management-process-of-a-financial-institution91506566 portfolio-management-process-of-a-financial-institution
91506566 portfolio-management-process-of-a-financial-institutionMuhammad Waseem
 
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandumRahulpathak154
 
IDFC Focused Equity Fund _Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund _Key information memorandumIDFC Focused Equity Fund _Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund _Key information memorandumJubiIDFCEquity
 
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandumIDFCJUBI
 
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandumRahulpathak154
 
ch 5 mf.pptx
ch 5 mf.pptxch 5 mf.pptx
ch 5 mf.pptxnemikshah
 

Similar to Dynamic asset allocation strategy (20)

48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)
48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)
48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)
 
48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)
48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)
48407540 project-report-on-portfolio-management-mgt-727 (1)
 
Strategic & Tactical[1]
Strategic & Tactical[1]Strategic & Tactical[1]
Strategic & Tactical[1]
 
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandum
 
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Arbitrage Fund_Key information memorandum
 
Types of Portfolio Strategies
Types of Portfolio StrategiesTypes of Portfolio Strategies
Types of Portfolio Strategies
 
Portfolio Strategies
Portfolio StrategiesPortfolio Strategies
Portfolio Strategies
 
Active & Passive[1]
Active & Passive[1]Active & Passive[1]
Active & Passive[1]
 
Module 6.1Putting aside opinions you may have regarding huma.docx
Module 6.1Putting aside opinions you may have regarding huma.docxModule 6.1Putting aside opinions you may have regarding huma.docx
Module 6.1Putting aside opinions you may have regarding huma.docx
 
Chapter-16_-Equity-Portfolio-Management-Strategies-Nhóm-Mai.pptx
Chapter-16_-Equity-Portfolio-Management-Strategies-Nhóm-Mai.pptxChapter-16_-Equity-Portfolio-Management-Strategies-Nhóm-Mai.pptx
Chapter-16_-Equity-Portfolio-Management-Strategies-Nhóm-Mai.pptx
 
Cs turbulence
Cs turbulenceCs turbulence
Cs turbulence
 
Aig Sun America Asset Allocation Strategies
Aig Sun America Asset Allocation StrategiesAig Sun America Asset Allocation Strategies
Aig Sun America Asset Allocation Strategies
 
Portfolio management
Portfolio managementPortfolio management
Portfolio management
 
Invema group1
Invema group1Invema group1
Invema group1
 
91506566 portfolio-management-process-of-a-financial-institution
91506566 portfolio-management-process-of-a-financial-institution91506566 portfolio-management-process-of-a-financial-institution
91506566 portfolio-management-process-of-a-financial-institution
 
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
 
IDFC Focused Equity Fund _Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund _Key information memorandumIDFC Focused Equity Fund _Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund _Key information memorandum
 
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
 
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Focused Equity Fund_Key information memorandum
 
ch 5 mf.pptx
ch 5 mf.pptxch 5 mf.pptx
ch 5 mf.pptx
 

More from Rifat Ahsan

Capital structure of tonka corporation
Capital structure of tonka corporationCapital structure of tonka corporation
Capital structure of tonka corporationRifat Ahsan
 
Case Analysis of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals”
Case Analysis of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals”Case Analysis of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals”
Case Analysis of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals”Rifat Ahsan
 
Case Analysis of Adelphia Communications Corp.’s Bankruptcy
Case Analysis of Adelphia Communications Corp.’s BankruptcyCase Analysis of Adelphia Communications Corp.’s Bankruptcy
Case Analysis of Adelphia Communications Corp.’s BankruptcyRifat Ahsan
 
Foreign investment by Bangladesh
Foreign investment by Bangladesh Foreign investment by Bangladesh
Foreign investment by Bangladesh Rifat Ahsan
 
Currency trouble in malawi
Currency trouble in malawiCurrency trouble in malawi
Currency trouble in malawiRifat Ahsan
 
Case analysis of wells fargo corporation
Case analysis of wells fargo corporationCase analysis of wells fargo corporation
Case analysis of wells fargo corporationRifat Ahsan
 
Case analysis of wells fargo corporation
Case analysis of wells fargo corporationCase analysis of wells fargo corporation
Case analysis of wells fargo corporationRifat Ahsan
 
Portfoilo constructuion
Portfoilo constructuionPortfoilo constructuion
Portfoilo constructuionRifat Ahsan
 
Foreign direct investment situation in Bangladesh
Foreign direct investment situation in BangladeshForeign direct investment situation in Bangladesh
Foreign direct investment situation in BangladeshRifat Ahsan
 
Critical analysis of Bangladesh Budget
Critical analysis of Bangladesh Budget Critical analysis of Bangladesh Budget
Critical analysis of Bangladesh Budget Rifat Ahsan
 
Effect of leverage on EPS and EBIT
Effect of leverage on EPS and EBITEffect of leverage on EPS and EBIT
Effect of leverage on EPS and EBITRifat Ahsan
 
Corporate finance
Corporate financeCorporate finance
Corporate financeRifat Ahsan
 
Budget analysis-fy17
Budget analysis-fy17Budget analysis-fy17
Budget analysis-fy17Rifat Ahsan
 
Capital investment decision (cid) case solution
Capital investment decision (cid) case solutionCapital investment decision (cid) case solution
Capital investment decision (cid) case solutionRifat Ahsan
 
Economic integration in the perspective of Bangladesh
Economic integration in the perspective of BangladeshEconomic integration in the perspective of Bangladesh
Economic integration in the perspective of BangladeshRifat Ahsan
 
Job characteristics model
Job characteristics modelJob characteristics model
Job characteristics modelRifat Ahsan
 
profit planning and standard costs & operating performance measures”
 profit planning and standard costs & operating performance measures” profit planning and standard costs & operating performance measures”
profit planning and standard costs & operating performance measures”Rifat Ahsan
 
Bangladesh bank monetary policy 2014 july to december
Bangladesh bank monetary policy 2014 july to december Bangladesh bank monetary policy 2014 july to december
Bangladesh bank monetary policy 2014 july to december Rifat Ahsan
 

More from Rifat Ahsan (20)

Capital structure of tonka corporation
Capital structure of tonka corporationCapital structure of tonka corporation
Capital structure of tonka corporation
 
Case Analysis of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals”
Case Analysis of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals”Case Analysis of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals”
Case Analysis of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals”
 
Case Analysis of Adelphia Communications Corp.’s Bankruptcy
Case Analysis of Adelphia Communications Corp.’s BankruptcyCase Analysis of Adelphia Communications Corp.’s Bankruptcy
Case Analysis of Adelphia Communications Corp.’s Bankruptcy
 
Foreign investment by Bangladesh
Foreign investment by Bangladesh Foreign investment by Bangladesh
Foreign investment by Bangladesh
 
Currency trouble in malawi
Currency trouble in malawiCurrency trouble in malawi
Currency trouble in malawi
 
Case analysis of wells fargo corporation
Case analysis of wells fargo corporationCase analysis of wells fargo corporation
Case analysis of wells fargo corporation
 
Case analysis of wells fargo corporation
Case analysis of wells fargo corporationCase analysis of wells fargo corporation
Case analysis of wells fargo corporation
 
Portfoilo constructuion
Portfoilo constructuionPortfoilo constructuion
Portfoilo constructuion
 
Foreign direct investment situation in Bangladesh
Foreign direct investment situation in BangladeshForeign direct investment situation in Bangladesh
Foreign direct investment situation in Bangladesh
 
Critical analysis of Bangladesh Budget
Critical analysis of Bangladesh Budget Critical analysis of Bangladesh Budget
Critical analysis of Bangladesh Budget
 
Effect of leverage on EPS and EBIT
Effect of leverage on EPS and EBITEffect of leverage on EPS and EBIT
Effect of leverage on EPS and EBIT
 
Corporate finance
Corporate financeCorporate finance
Corporate finance
 
Budget analysis-fy17
Budget analysis-fy17Budget analysis-fy17
Budget analysis-fy17
 
Basel 2 and 3
Basel 2 and 3Basel 2 and 3
Basel 2 and 3
 
Capital investment decision (cid) case solution
Capital investment decision (cid) case solutionCapital investment decision (cid) case solution
Capital investment decision (cid) case solution
 
Economic integration in the perspective of Bangladesh
Economic integration in the perspective of BangladeshEconomic integration in the perspective of Bangladesh
Economic integration in the perspective of Bangladesh
 
Job characteristics model
Job characteristics modelJob characteristics model
Job characteristics model
 
profit planning and standard costs & operating performance measures”
 profit planning and standard costs & operating performance measures” profit planning and standard costs & operating performance measures”
profit planning and standard costs & operating performance measures”
 
Basel 2 & 3
Basel 2 & 3Basel 2 & 3
Basel 2 & 3
 
Bangladesh bank monetary policy 2014 july to december
Bangladesh bank monetary policy 2014 july to december Bangladesh bank monetary policy 2014 july to december
Bangladesh bank monetary policy 2014 july to december
 

Recently uploaded

From idea to production in a day – Leveraging Azure ML and Streamlit to build...
From idea to production in a day – Leveraging Azure ML and Streamlit to build...From idea to production in a day – Leveraging Azure ML and Streamlit to build...
From idea to production in a day – Leveraging Azure ML and Streamlit to build...Florian Roscheck
 
RA-11058_IRR-COMPRESS Do 198 series of 1998
RA-11058_IRR-COMPRESS Do 198 series of 1998RA-11058_IRR-COMPRESS Do 198 series of 1998
RA-11058_IRR-COMPRESS Do 198 series of 1998YohFuh
 
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationshipsccctableauusergroup
 
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Call
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip CallDelhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Call
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Callshivangimorya083
 
Schema on read is obsolete. Welcome metaprogramming..pdf
Schema on read is obsolete. Welcome metaprogramming..pdfSchema on read is obsolete. Welcome metaprogramming..pdf
Schema on read is obsolete. Welcome metaprogramming..pdfLars Albertsson
 
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docx
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docxB2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docx
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docxStephen266013
 
VIP Call Girls in Amravati Aarohi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service Amravati
VIP Call Girls in Amravati Aarohi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service AmravatiVIP Call Girls in Amravati Aarohi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service Amravati
VIP Call Girls in Amravati Aarohi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service AmravatiSuhani Kapoor
 
100-Concepts-of-AI by Anupama Kate .pptx
100-Concepts-of-AI by Anupama Kate .pptx100-Concepts-of-AI by Anupama Kate .pptx
100-Concepts-of-AI by Anupama Kate .pptxAnupama Kate
 
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptx
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM  TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptxEMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM  TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptx
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptxthyngster
 
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书) 成绩单原版一比一
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书)																			成绩单原版一比一定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书)																			成绩单原版一比一
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书) 成绩单原版一比一ffjhghh
 
VIP High Profile Call Girls Amravati Aarushi 8250192130 Independent Escort Se...
VIP High Profile Call Girls Amravati Aarushi 8250192130 Independent Escort Se...VIP High Profile Call Girls Amravati Aarushi 8250192130 Independent Escort Se...
VIP High Profile Call Girls Amravati Aarushi 8250192130 Independent Escort Se...Suhani Kapoor
 
FESE Capital Markets Fact Sheet 2024 Q1.pdf
FESE Capital Markets Fact Sheet 2024 Q1.pdfFESE Capital Markets Fact Sheet 2024 Q1.pdf
FESE Capital Markets Fact Sheet 2024 Q1.pdfMarinCaroMartnezBerg
 
Aminabad Call Girl Agent 9548273370 , Call Girls Service Lucknow
Aminabad Call Girl Agent 9548273370 , Call Girls Service LucknowAminabad Call Girl Agent 9548273370 , Call Girls Service Lucknow
Aminabad Call Girl Agent 9548273370 , Call Girls Service Lucknowmakika9823
 
Building on a FAIRly Strong Foundation to Connect Academic Research to Transl...
Building on a FAIRly Strong Foundation to Connect Academic Research to Transl...Building on a FAIRly Strong Foundation to Connect Academic Research to Transl...
Building on a FAIRly Strong Foundation to Connect Academic Research to Transl...Jack DiGiovanna
 
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptx
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptxLog Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptx
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptxJohnnyPlasten
 
代办国外大学文凭《原版美国UCLA文凭证书》加州大学洛杉矶分校毕业证制作成绩单修改
代办国外大学文凭《原版美国UCLA文凭证书》加州大学洛杉矶分校毕业证制作成绩单修改代办国外大学文凭《原版美国UCLA文凭证书》加州大学洛杉矶分校毕业证制作成绩单修改
代办国外大学文凭《原版美国UCLA文凭证书》加州大学洛杉矶分校毕业证制作成绩单修改atducpo
 
Ukraine War presentation: KNOW THE BASICS
Ukraine War presentation: KNOW THE BASICSUkraine War presentation: KNOW THE BASICS
Ukraine War presentation: KNOW THE BASICSAishani27
 
Call Girls In Mahipalpur O9654467111 Escorts Service
Call Girls In Mahipalpur O9654467111  Escorts ServiceCall Girls In Mahipalpur O9654467111  Escorts Service
Call Girls In Mahipalpur O9654467111 Escorts ServiceSapana Sha
 

Recently uploaded (20)

From idea to production in a day – Leveraging Azure ML and Streamlit to build...
From idea to production in a day – Leveraging Azure ML and Streamlit to build...From idea to production in a day – Leveraging Azure ML and Streamlit to build...
From idea to production in a day – Leveraging Azure ML and Streamlit to build...
 
RA-11058_IRR-COMPRESS Do 198 series of 1998
RA-11058_IRR-COMPRESS Do 198 series of 1998RA-11058_IRR-COMPRESS Do 198 series of 1998
RA-11058_IRR-COMPRESS Do 198 series of 1998
 
VIP Call Girls Service Charbagh { Lucknow Call Girls Service 9548273370 } Boo...
VIP Call Girls Service Charbagh { Lucknow Call Girls Service 9548273370 } Boo...VIP Call Girls Service Charbagh { Lucknow Call Girls Service 9548273370 } Boo...
VIP Call Girls Service Charbagh { Lucknow Call Girls Service 9548273370 } Boo...
 
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships
 
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Call
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip CallDelhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Call
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Call
 
Schema on read is obsolete. Welcome metaprogramming..pdf
Schema on read is obsolete. Welcome metaprogramming..pdfSchema on read is obsolete. Welcome metaprogramming..pdf
Schema on read is obsolete. Welcome metaprogramming..pdf
 
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docx
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docxB2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docx
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docx
 
VIP Call Girls in Amravati Aarohi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service Amravati
VIP Call Girls in Amravati Aarohi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service AmravatiVIP Call Girls in Amravati Aarohi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service Amravati
VIP Call Girls in Amravati Aarohi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service Amravati
 
100-Concepts-of-AI by Anupama Kate .pptx
100-Concepts-of-AI by Anupama Kate .pptx100-Concepts-of-AI by Anupama Kate .pptx
100-Concepts-of-AI by Anupama Kate .pptx
 
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptx
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM  TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptxEMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM  TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptx
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptx
 
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书) 成绩单原版一比一
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书)																			成绩单原版一比一定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书)																			成绩单原版一比一
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书) 成绩单原版一比一
 
E-Commerce Order PredictionShraddha Kamble.pptx
E-Commerce Order PredictionShraddha Kamble.pptxE-Commerce Order PredictionShraddha Kamble.pptx
E-Commerce Order PredictionShraddha Kamble.pptx
 
VIP High Profile Call Girls Amravati Aarushi 8250192130 Independent Escort Se...
VIP High Profile Call Girls Amravati Aarushi 8250192130 Independent Escort Se...VIP High Profile Call Girls Amravati Aarushi 8250192130 Independent Escort Se...
VIP High Profile Call Girls Amravati Aarushi 8250192130 Independent Escort Se...
 
FESE Capital Markets Fact Sheet 2024 Q1.pdf
FESE Capital Markets Fact Sheet 2024 Q1.pdfFESE Capital Markets Fact Sheet 2024 Q1.pdf
FESE Capital Markets Fact Sheet 2024 Q1.pdf
 
Aminabad Call Girl Agent 9548273370 , Call Girls Service Lucknow
Aminabad Call Girl Agent 9548273370 , Call Girls Service LucknowAminabad Call Girl Agent 9548273370 , Call Girls Service Lucknow
Aminabad Call Girl Agent 9548273370 , Call Girls Service Lucknow
 
Building on a FAIRly Strong Foundation to Connect Academic Research to Transl...
Building on a FAIRly Strong Foundation to Connect Academic Research to Transl...Building on a FAIRly Strong Foundation to Connect Academic Research to Transl...
Building on a FAIRly Strong Foundation to Connect Academic Research to Transl...
 
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptx
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptxLog Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptx
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptx
 
代办国外大学文凭《原版美国UCLA文凭证书》加州大学洛杉矶分校毕业证制作成绩单修改
代办国外大学文凭《原版美国UCLA文凭证书》加州大学洛杉矶分校毕业证制作成绩单修改代办国外大学文凭《原版美国UCLA文凭证书》加州大学洛杉矶分校毕业证制作成绩单修改
代办国外大学文凭《原版美国UCLA文凭证书》加州大学洛杉矶分校毕业证制作成绩单修改
 
Ukraine War presentation: KNOW THE BASICS
Ukraine War presentation: KNOW THE BASICSUkraine War presentation: KNOW THE BASICS
Ukraine War presentation: KNOW THE BASICS
 
Call Girls In Mahipalpur O9654467111 Escorts Service
Call Girls In Mahipalpur O9654467111  Escorts ServiceCall Girls In Mahipalpur O9654467111  Escorts Service
Call Girls In Mahipalpur O9654467111 Escorts Service
 

Dynamic asset allocation strategy

  • 1. 1 Department of Finance, University of Dhaka Report on Portfolio Management: Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy Submitted to Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam, FCMA Professor Department of Finance University of Dhaka Course Name: Financial Derivatives Course Code: F- 503 Submitted by Md. Monjurul Ahsan Id No: 19-099 (BBA) 20-376 (MBA) Section-A MBA 20th Batch Department of Finance University of Dhaka Date of Submission: 30-01-2019
  • 2. 2 Letter of Transmittal January 30, 2019 To Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam Professor Department of Finance University of Dhaka Sir, Here is the report of the group term paper that you assigned us to work on “Portfolio Management: Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy” fixing the date of submission on January 30, 2019. The topic that you have given us is really an important & interesting fact for the finance students in acquiring practical orientation of dynamic asset allocation strategy. We thank you for choosing us for working on this topic. Yours sincerely ………………………………… Md. Monjurul Ahsan ID: 19-099 (BBA) 20-376 (MBA) Section-A 20th Batch Department of Finance University of Dhaka
  • 3. 3 Acknowledgement I express my thanks to our dear course teacher Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam for assigning me the report dealing with dynamic asset allocation strategy. The presentation of this report is of a great expectation in our MBA program and I am quite happy to submit it dully applying that I think should have to be included. Theoretical knowledge is valued when it is successfully applied in practical scenario. In this respect I found this report a great opportunity to deal with some knowledge about dynamic asset allocation strategy. So lastly I would again like to express our heartfelt thanks to our course teacher for providing the theoretical knowledge and valuable guidelines related to the topic assigned.
  • 4. 4 Executive Summary Portfolio insurance is a dynamic trading strategy designed to protect a portfolio from market declines while preserving the opportunity to participate in market advances. Several portfolio insurance methods exist and are used in practice. The best-known strategy involves trading in “real” and /or “synthetic” options. With the introduction of exchange-traded index put options, it seemed theoretically possible for an investor to use these contracts to insure well-diversified portfolios, especially index funds. For some reasons, most investors prefer not to use the option market for insuring the portfolios. Hence it calls for the dynamic trading strategy replicating the option strategy to insure the portfolio. In this strategy, the manager replicates an option through a process of continually revising, in a prescribed manner, the proportions of a portfolio consisting of the underlying the asset and the riskless asset. Besides the complex nature of the underlying option pricing theory, the dynamic strategy calls for buying more stock when the market is going up and selling off some stock as the market goes down. In this report there is thorough analysis of the economy, industry and selected companies in order to develop a well-diversified optimum portfolio of 10 stocks. The ten selected companies are from 10 different industries. The portfolio is constructed of Tk 10, 00,000 and in dynamic asset allocation. The proportions allocated to the underlying portfolio and the riskless asset change every period, so that the dynamic insurance strategy requires a significant amount of trading. As in Bangladesh there is no market for derivative securities, I assumed a hypothetical option market for this dynamic asset allocation strategy.
  • 5. 5 Table of Contents Executive summary....................................................................................................................4 Introduction............................................................................................................................. -9 Asset Class Selection........................................................................................................ 17-18 Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy.................................................................................. 19-23 5.1 Delta Calculation ................................................................................................... 23-24 5.2 Insured Portfolio ..........................................................................................................25 5.3 Put Option Dynamics.............................................................................................. 25-26 5.4 Call Option...................................................................................................................27 6. Dynamic Asset Allocation............................................................................................. 28-39 7. Comparison.................................................................................................................... 40-41 8.Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................42
  • 6. 6 Introduction Origin of the report For the partial fulfillment of the study, our honorable course teacher, Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam assigned me to report on “Portfolio Management: Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy”. To conduct the report at first I wanted to know the procedures of constructing the portfolios with given amount of initial investment which will provide knowledge about how insurance can be achieved. Background of the Report To the investor, insurance of portfolio is crucial. Options in the market of Bangladesh are not available, but we can replicate them to construct insured portfolio which will provide a certain return. Without dynamic asset allocation, there have been some strategies that don’t provide portfolio insurance though the return is higher, but, the investor is always at risk and risk-averse investors might not come in the market out of this scenario. Objective of the Report To be honest, the objective of the study is to fulfill the requirement of our course on International Business. Other objectives behind conducting this study are as follows:  To enhance our practical knowledge  To know how Dynamic asset allocation strategy works  To acquire knowledge about the procedures constructing insured portfolio.  To compare dynamic asset allocation strategy with other methods.  To explore how portfolio insurance provides cushion to investors. Methodology To accomplish the task we take help from our text book, articles, Dhaka Stock Exchange, and different web sites. Limitation of the Report The major limitations encountered are as follows:  Lack of adequate information  Nonexistent options market in Bangladesh
  • 7. 7  Lack of Experience  Lack of adequate time relative to the volume of the report  Limitation of Knowledge Dynamic Asset Allocation One of the active asset allocation strategies is dynamic asset allocation, with which one constantly adjust the mix of assets as markets rise and fall, and as the economy strengthens and weakens. With this strategy one sell assets that are declining and purchase assets that are increasing, making dynamic asset allocation the polar opposite of a constant-weighting strategy. For example, if the stock market is showing weakness, investors sell stocks in anticipation of further decreases; and if the market is strong, investors purchase stocks in anticipation of continued market gains. In this strategy, the manager replicates an option through continuously revising the proportions of a portfolio consisting of the underlying asset (stock/bond) and the riskless asset (bond/T-bill) to insure portfolio’s value. This strategy requires buying more stock when the market is going up and selling off some stock as the market goes down. The proportions allocated to the underlying risky asset & the riskless asset change every period, so this strategy requires a significant amount of trading. The number of units of the underlying risky asset that must be held long at any given moment will be given by the call option’s “Delta”. The amount of riskless asset to hold is determined by subtracting the value of the units held in the underlying asset from the total value of the insured portfolio. Many experts believe that what an investor buys or sells is more important than when he or she buys or sells it. This is the essence of asset allocation. Because many asset classes tend to rise and fall together, a portfolio’s overall return is much more affected by how the portfolio is allocated rather than the specific securities chosen. A well-known 1986 study by Brinson, Hood and Bee bower confirmed that 95% of the time, asset allocation determined a portfolio’s returns rather than the specific securities chosen. A dynamic asset allocation strategy is a mix of active and passive investing. On one hand the investor keeps a consistent, long-term asset allocation and does not alter that based on short-term market swings or stock fads. On the other hand, the investor buys and sells securities in his portfolio occasionally in order to keep the portfolio aligned with the original weightings.
  • 8. 8 Merits of Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy  Often cheaper than active trading  The strategy requires less in trading commissions and advisory fees.  Reduced downside risk as investments are avoid on declining markets  Better exploitation of changing economic scenarios and  Benefit of diversification of investments. Disadvantages of Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy  The need of active management of portfolio  Chance of loss because of wrong market interpretation and wrong investing decisions  High risk when compared to strategic and tactical methods. Process of dynamic asset allocation There are some steps by which dynamic asset allocation strategy can be made successful. In a flow chart all the relevant step is given below: 1. Put Option Dynamics 2. Insured Portfolio Dynamics 3. Call Option Deltas 4. Asset Allocation
  • 9. 9 1. Put option dynamics In this step all the put prices of each step have to be finding out from the strike prices. It helps to find out the deltas of call which is very much essential for constructing a new portfolio. 2. Insured portfolio dynamics The total value of risky and risk free investment will be combined which is known as insured portfolio. In each of the time period this amount will be find out. Basically it represents the new portfolio amount. 3. Call option delta To construct new portfolio call option delta helps very much. The difference between up and down movement stock price will be divided by the respective put option value difference to find out the delta value. 4. Asset allocation Due to the changes in call option delta value in each period asset allocation also changes. According to call option delta shares may be bought or sold out. If delta increases then some new risky shares have to buy and with the same amount risk free asset have to sell. On the other hand if delta decreases than the previous time step then some risky shares have to sell and with the same amount some risk free asset have to include. In each step risk free asset will be increased at the risk free rate. Through this way asset allocation has been done and new portfolio has been formed.
  • 10. 10 Three Steps Analysis Economy Analysis: The economy of Bangladesh is a rapidly developing market-based economy. Its per capita income in 2018 was estimated to be US$ 1314 (adjusted by GDP Per Capita). According to the International Monetary Fund, Bangladesh ranked as the 44th largest economy in the world in 2018 in PPP terms and 57th largest in nominal terms, among the Next Eleven (N-11) of Goldman Sachs and D-8 economies, with a gross domestic product of US$306 billion in PPP terms and US$115.6 billion in nominal terms. Bangladesh's economy has grown roughly 6% per year since 1996 despite political instability, poor infrastructure, corruption, insufficient power supplies, slow implementation of economic reforms, and the 2008-09 global financial crisis and recession. Although more than half of GDP is generated through the service sector, almost half of Bangladeshis are employed in the agriculture sector with rice as the single-most-important product. Garment exports, the backbone of Bangladesh’s industrial sector and 80% of total exports, surpassed $21 billion last year, 18% of GDP. The sector has remained resilient in recent years amidst a series of factory accidents that have killed over 1,000 workers and crippling strikes that shut down virtually all economic activity. Steady garment export growth combined with remittances from overseas Bangladeshis, which totaled almost $15 billion and 13% of GDP IN 2018, are the largest contributors to Bangladesh’s current account surplus and record foreign exchange holdings. Textile industry: The textile and clothing (T&C) industries provide the single source of economic growth in Bangladesh's rapidly developing economy. Exports of textiles and garments are the principal source of foreign exchange earnings. Agriculture for domestic consumption is Bangladesh’s largest employment sector. By 2002 exports of textiles, clothing, and ready-made garments (RMG) accounted for 77% of Bangladesh’s total merchandise exports. By 2013, about 4 million people, mostly women, worked in Bangladesh's $19 billion-a-year industry, export-oriented ready-made garment (RMG) industry. Bangladesh is second only to China, the world's second-largest apparel exporter of western brands. Sixty percent of the export contracts of western brands are with European buyers and about forty percent with American buyers only 5% of textile factories are owned by foreign investors, with most of the production being controlled by local investors. As
  • 11. 11 Textile industry is not reached its maturity stage yet investment in these industries will generate a good return for the investors and for this reason I have selected companies from these industries in the portfolio. Pharmaceutical industry: Pharmaceutical is the core of Bangladesh’s Healthcare sector, and serves as one of the most important manufacturing industry. With a history since 1950s, the industry has now turned one of the most successful pharmaceuticals manufacturing industry among the developing countries. Presently, the industry meets 97% of local demand and exports to more than 80 countries. The industry has been experiencing robust growth over the last few years. A local industry supporting drug policy and effective regulatory framework, along with TRIPS relaxations are the key reasons for success of the industry. As Pharmaceutical industry is in a growth stage in industry life cycle there is a probability of making better investment return in this industry. Cement Industry: Development of cement industry in Bangladesh dates back to the early-fifties but its growth in real sense started only about a decade. The country has been experiencing an upsurge in cement consumption for the last five years. Government gave permission for establishing cement industries in Bangladesh in FY1995. Initially the cement industry took place without the proper analysis of the demand and supply of cement in the country. Within the span of the two to three years, industry attained expanded capacity of the product with stable growth rate of consumption. Considering the “Life cycle of the industry‟, currently cement industry of Bangladesh is in the growth stage. Sales of cement are increasing due to an enormous demand for cement in both the local and foreign markets. The industry realized about 30% and 21% growth in 2009 and 2010 respectively after suppressed demand from previous years. Food and Allied Industry: The food processing industry in Bangladesh represents one of the major potential sectors within the industrial segments in terms of contribution to value addition and employment. The sector accounts for over 22% of all manufacturing production and employs about 20% of labor forces. All food processing enterprises account for 2% of the national GDP. The food processing sector
  • 12. 12 includes processing of cereals, pulses & oilseeds, bakery & confectionary, fruits and vegetables, dairy, carbonated beverages and various other food items. Food industry is a rapidly growing sector in Bangladesh, employing a significant portion of the labor force in the country. Between 2004 and 2010, the food processing industry in Bangladesh grew at an average 7.7 percent per annum. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, in its 25006 Economic Census, reported that there were approximately 246 medium sized food processing industries employing 19 percent of the industrial manufacturing workforce in Bangladesh or 8 percent of the total manufacturing labor force. The industry employs 2.45 percent of the country's total labor force and its share in the GDP was 2.01 percent in 2010. There are also numerous small scale factories and domestic units engaged in food processing throughout the country. According to some industry analysts, the food processing sector in Bangladesh is a 4.5 Billion US Dollar industry. In 2010, Bangladesh exported over $700 million worth of processed food and beverages, over 60 percent of them were shrimp and fish products. Fuel and power industry: Electricity is a key ingredient for the socio-economic development of the country. The government has given top priority to development of the sector considering its importance in the overall development of the country. The government has set the goal of providing electricity to all citizens by 2021. Adequate and reliable supply of electricity is an important pre-requisite for attracting both domestic and foreign investment. As the power sector is a capital-intensive industry, huge investments are required in order to generate addition to the capacity. Competing demands on the government resources and declining levels of external assistance from multilateral and bilateral donor agencies constrained the potential for public investment in the power sector. Recognizing these trends, the government of Bangladesh amended its industrial policies to enable private investment in the power sector. Fuel & power industry are oligopolistic in nature. These two industries have been making a lot of profit. The current state of our power sector is very poor. So it has huge scope of growth. That’s why I included companies from this industry.
  • 13. 13 Tannery industries: In Bangladesh the leather industry is well established and ranked fourth in terms of earning foreign exchange. In consideration of being a value added sector the (Government of Bangladesh (GoB), Ministry of Industry (MoI) has declared it as a priority sector. The leather products sector have huge opportunities in generating employment , entrepreneurship and investment by increasing export of higher value added products rather than finished leather and by utilizing locally made raw material (finished leather) to convert into more value added leather products (including footwear and other leather goods). Statistics prepared by Export Promotion Bureau of Bangladesh for the Financial Year 2011-12, the leather sector grew by 17.5 percent and earned $765 million in revenue. Of this $434.8 million was attributed from leather products, accounting for approximately 57 percent of the total revenue. The leather sector includes 220 tanneries, 3,500 MSMEs and 110 large firms2 of leather products controlling more than 90% of the export market. Most of the enterprise enterprises are located in Dhaka, followed by two big clusters at Bhairab and Chittagong . The sector generates direct and indirect employment for about 850,000 3 people, including a significant number of women particularly in the leather products industries. Banking industry: Banking sector of Bangladesh is one of the major sectors, which contributes significantly to the national economy. The sector comprises a number of banks in various categories such as: Nationalized Commercial Banks, Specialized Banks, Private Commercial Banks and Trans- National Banks. The Banking Industry of Bangladesh at present is in the growth stage. Almost every year new private banks are coming up, new branches are opening within two to three months, and new customers are coming to open an account in different banks. As a result, according to July 30, 2016 there are 6 nationalized commercial banks, 2 specialized banks, 40 local private commercial banks and 9 foreign commercial banks operating in this country. Moreover, as on July 30, 2016 there are 60,881,322 numbers of deposit accounts and 10,462,785 numbers of advance accounts in the banks.
  • 14. 14 Nonbanking Financial Institution: Financial sector is the most important sector of any economy. Currently, 44 life and general insurance companies and 21 NBFIs listed in DSE. These two industries are the most consistent performer since many years. These are also in the growth stage, so they have very high future profit potentiality. Therefore investment in these industries will generate a good return for the investors and for this reason I have selected companies from these industries in the portfolio. Engineering Industry: The light engineering industry in Bangladesh continues to grow each year. This labor-intensive sector produces a diverse range of items, including import substitute machinery spares, plant machineries, small tools, toys, consumer items and paper products for the domestic market. Most of these enterprises are located in and around Dhaka metropolis. In the Export policy 2003-2006, the Government of Bangladesh had identified the following five sectors to have the High Priority: Light Engineering Products (including auto-parts and bi-cycles), Software & ICT products, Agro- products & Agro-processing products, Leather goods and High value-added readymade garments. Insurance Industry: However, though the global insurance market declined but Bangladesh has seen a significant growth over last year. Growth in the industrialized countries was -- 2.8% for life and -- 0.6% for non-life insurance, however, emerging markets grew at a rate of 4.2% for life and 2.9% for non- life insurance. Company Analysis: I have chosen 10 companies from those 10 industries. I tried to diversify as much as possible. As banking sector’s contribution was 7.4% and 4.49% according to February 12 and 11 of the total capital market I have taken two dominant and growing companies Islami Bank for portfolio construction. Textile industry comprises about 8.64% and 7.08% of capital market so I chose Square Textile which market share is almost 30% and making continuous profit and listed as A category share in DSE. Pharmaceutical also comprises 13.84% and 13.24% of overall market so I choose Square Pharma which is a growing multinational company operated in Bangladesh. From Tannery industries I choose Bata Shoe which is a market leader and growing firm. As both insurance and nonbanking finance institution comprises 4.77% and 3.72% of capital market I
  • 15. 15 choose Prime insurance and Lanka Bangla Finance two renowned companies within their sector. From food and allied sector I choose Bangas for its growth opportunities and positive profit making and choose Padma oil from fuel and power sector which also comprises 16.25% of overall capital market. From engineering sector I have chosen Singer BD Limited. From Cement Industry I have chosen Heidelberg Cement which is a market leader in the cement industry and performing well. From insurance industry which comprises a good amount in market composition I have selected Prime Insurance. Table 1: Sector wise P/E ratio Sector name P/E Ratio Sector Cap Sector Earning Bank 11.03 411,798,451,840 40,197,073,552 Cement 38.83 53,862,493,722 2,487,445,101 Ceramics Sector 20.37 21,975,535,682 606,053,639 Engineering 15.85 116,693,607,327 5,152,146,890 Financial Institutions 25.36 90,953,609,789 8,074,706,542 Food & Allied 15.66 225,704,358,664 7,189,690,168 Fuel & Power 12.93 269,910,804,296 21,394,730,606 Insurance 16 90,235,000,147 4,491,202,611 IT Sector 17.41 3,610,643,261 207,435,341 Jute 2086.88 646,592,400 3,449,280 Miscellaneous 23.92 69,909,936,693 2,131,790,043 Paper & Printing 20.5 2,076,476,000 151,138,400 Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals 18.74 329,740,523,223 14,478,007,073 Services & Real Estate 18.38 20,058,576,564 547,189,254 Tannery Industries 25.70 25,934,584,533 1,009,161,308 Telecommunication 16.41 490,099,553,921 19,922,836,039 Textile 15.78 82,521,354,118 6,897,400,867 Travel & Leisure 20.29 27,130,328,960 1,601,240,261 We calculate P/E excluding : Z category. Shares of OTC. Shares which are not traded for a long time.
  • 16. 16 Asset class selection Industries selected to make this portfolio:  Bank  NBFI  Textile  Food and allied  Cement  Fuel and power  Telecommunication  General Insurance  Engineering  Pharmaceuticals and Chemical I have selected these industries because of the growth rate of industries & diversification of risk. Selection Criteria of Assets: Criteria are followed to select individual security. These are:  Listed in Dhaka Stock Exchange  Listed before January 01, 2006  ‘A’ category share.  Growth firm.  Having significant market share on underlying sector.
  • 17. 17 Selection of Individual Asset: The securities selected are as follows: Sector Company Bank AB Bank Textile APEX SPINNING & KNITTING MILLS LIMITED Engineering Aftab Automobiles Pharmaceuticals IBNSINA Pharmaceuticals Telecom GP NBFI Lankabangla Cement Lafarge Surma Cement Fuel and power Jamuna oil Ceramic RAK Ceramics Food & Allied BATBC Risk free asset selection: There may be 100% risk free asset or some combination of risky and risk free asset in the portfolio that’s why risk free asset should be determined. I have taken 91-day T-bill as the risk free asset for constructing new portfolio. The rate in each quarter has been used to calculate the growth of risk free asset. Data collection: Data have been collected from DSE stock and Bangladesh bank. The opening, closing .highest and lowest price of the shares has been taken from the daily share price statement. Dividend information also has taken from the exchanges. Risk free rate has been determined in quarter basis. Portfolio construction: Now after getting all the required information I have determined dividend adjusted price in each quarter. Then with considering the investment and situation I have determined the value of risky
  • 18. 18 and risk free investment. In this case initial, higher, lower and closing values are multiplied by the respective number of shares. Then the total closing values have been distributed among the 10 companies equally. Again by following this strategy I have got the total closing values at the end of second quarter. After following this strategy, I have got all quarter’s total closing values. These values have been used as strike price. Put option values have been determined by considering either option will be exercised or not. If it will be exercised, then value of the put option will be zero otherwise the difference between stock price and strike price. With the help of stock price and put option value the call option delta has been calculated. Continuous compounding has been used in the growth of risk free asset. After determining cal option delta dynamic asset allocation has been formed for the equal weight of the both risky and risk free asset. So with the changes of the delta new portfolio has been formed by buying or selling risky or risk free asset. Through this I have got the insured portfolio value in each of the quarter end.
  • 19. 19 Dynamic asset allocation strategy At first some assumption has been taken before constructing dynamic asset allocation. These are given below-  Investment amount is 1000000 Tk.  Initial distribution of total fund between Risky securities and T-bills is considered to be 50:50  The amount of investment in shares will be distributed among the 10 securities equally  Continuous compounded risk free rate is assumed.  Call and Put option strike prices are assumed 1080000 Tk. Now step by step dynamic asset allocation strategy is given below: Standard deviation determination All the closing prices of the company have been taken in daily basis. After this dividend also been adjusted after the record that. Return has been calculated through the log normal basis. And by giving the equal weight portfolio standard deviation for daily basis for every quarter have been calculated. In this case daily portfolio standard deviation has been converted into quarter through the following formula- Quarter portfolio standard deviation = daily standard deviation × √ number of days Based on this formula the following portfolio standard deviation has been gotten.
  • 20. 20 Quarter 4 (2017) Quarter 1 (2018) Company ABBank Apex Spinning Aftab IBNSINA GP LankabanglaLafarge Jamunaoil RAK BATBC Weight 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Sector Company Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Weight Bank ABBank 0.0005783 -0.0001137 -0.0000242 0.0000221 0.0004962 0.0007327 -0.0000373 -0.0001009 -0.0000189 0.0001501 0.10 Textile Apex Spinning -0.0001137 0.0005620 -0.0000498 0.0001084 -0.0001432 0.0002103 -0.0000131 0.0000061 -0.0000051 -0.0000877 0.10 Engineering Aftab -0.0000242 -0.0000498 0.0003267 -0.0000668 0.0000647 -0.0016628 0.0000043 0.0000198 0.0000007 0.0000518 0.10 Pharmaceuticals IBNSINA 0.0000221 0.0001084 -0.0000668 0.0002429 -0.0000495 0.0002729 0.0000352 -0.0000289 -0.0000149 0.0000189 0.10 Telecom GP 0.0004962 -0.0001432 0.0000647 -0.0000495 0.0095434 0.0001546 -0.0001200 -0.0023467 -0.0001845 0.0000576 0.10 NBFI Lankabangla 0.0007327 0.0002103 -0.0016628 0.0002729 0.0001546 0.0195649 0.0001645 -0.0001188 0.0000464 -0.0000141 0.10 Cement Lafarge -0.0000373 -0.0000131 0.0000043 0.0000352 -0.0001200 0.0001645 0.0005075 0.0000543 0.0000228 0.0000246 0.10 Fuel and power Jamunaoil -0.0001009 0.0000061 0.0000198 -0.0000289 -0.0023467 -0.0001188 0.0000543 0.0007092 0.0000536 0.0000311 0.10 Ceramic RAK -0.0000189 -0.0000051 0.0000007 -0.0000149 -0.0001845 0.0000464 0.0000228 0.0000536 0.0000905 -0.0000482 0.10 Food &Allied BATBC 0.0001501 -0.0000877 0.0000518 0.0000189 0.0000576 -0.0000141 0.0000246 0.0000311 -0.0000482 0.0008377 0.10 Portfolio Return -0.000122488 Portfolio Variance 0.0002807 Portfolio Standard Deviation 0.016754948 0.1297833 Company AB Bank Apex Spinning Aftab IBNSINA GP LankabanglaLafarge Jamunaoil RAK BATBC Weight 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Sector Company Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Weight Bank AB Bank 0.0008691 0.0000163 0.0001508 0.0000806 0.0001136 0.0003419 0.0001140 0.0000231 0.0004974 -0.0000260 0.10 Textile Apex Spinning 0.0000163 0.0007210 0.0000647 0.0001096 -0.0000151 0.0002680 -0.0000238 0.0000692 -0.0001519 -0.0000716 0.10 Engineering Aftab 0.0001508 0.0000647 0.0003592 0.0000362 0.0001247 0.0001696 0.0005290 0.0003934 0.0001065 -0.0000558 0.10 Pharmaceuticals IBNSINA 0.0000806 0.0001096 0.0000362 0.0001318 0.0000278 0.0001317 0.0000058 0.0000219 0.0001621 -0.0000226 0.10 Telecom GP 0.0001136 -0.0000151 0.0001247 0.0000278 0.0023079 0.0000809 0.0000690 0.0000694 0.0000820 -0.0002120 0.10 NBFI Lankabangla 0.0003419 0.0002680 0.0001696 0.0001317 0.0000809 0.0116248 0.0001458 0.0000743 0.0040828 -0.0042552 0.10 Cement Lafarge 0.0001140 -0.0000238 0.0005290 0.0000058 0.0000690 0.0001458 0.0010664 0.0006830 0.0001978 -0.0000726 0.10 Fuel and power Jamunaoil 0.0000231 0.0000692 0.0003934 0.0000219 0.0000694 0.0000743 0.0006830 0.0005690 0.0001806 -0.0000313 0.10 Ceramic RAK 0.0004974 -0.0001519 0.0001065 0.0001621 0.0000820 0.0040828 0.0001978 0.0001806 0.0099927 -0.0015072 0.10 Food & Allied BATBC -0.0000260 -0.0000716 -0.0000558 -0.0000226 -0.0002120 -0.0042552 -0.0000726 -0.0000313 -0.0015072 0.0019094 0.10 Portfolio Return -0.00095636 Portfolio Variance 0.0003511 Portfolio Standard Deviation 0.018737118 0.1475362
  • 21. 21 Quarter 2 (2018) Quarter 3 (2018) Company ABBank Apex Spinning Aftab IBNSINA GP LankabanglaLafarge Jamunaoil RAK BATBC Weight 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Sector Company Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Weight Bank ABBank 0.0005644 0.0000511 0.0000942 0.0000133 -0.0000003 0.0001405 0.0000156 0.0000310 0.0000066 0.0000020 0.10 Textile Apex Spinning 0.0000511 0.0001109 0.0000320 0.0000224 -0.0000061 -0.0000035 -0.0000053 0.0000171 0.0000102 0.0000014 0.10 Engineering Aftab 0.0000942 0.0000320 0.0001611 0.0000224 0.0000157 0.0001354 0.0000188 0.0000477 0.0000382 0.0000151 0.10 Pharmaceuticals IBNSINA 0.0000133 0.0000224 0.0000224 0.0001895 0.0000281 0.0000556 0.0000633 -0.0000113 0.0000475 0.0000178 0.10 Telecom GP -0.0000003 -0.0000061 0.0000157 0.0000281 0.0000416 0.0000223 0.0000340 0.0000023 0.0000256 0.0000034 0.10 NBFI Lankabangla 0.0001405 -0.0000035 0.0001354 0.0000556 0.0000223 0.0008332 -0.0000377 0.0000221 0.0000800 0.0000176 0.10 Cement Lafarge 0.0000156 -0.0000053 0.0000188 0.0000633 0.0000340 -0.0000377 0.0002924 0.0000137 0.0000522 0.0000135 0.10 Fuel and power Jamunaoil 0.0000310 0.0000171 0.0000477 -0.0000113 0.0000023 0.0000221 0.0000137 0.0000557 0.0000102 0.0000042 0.10 Ceramic RAK 0.0000066 0.0000102 0.0000382 0.0000475 0.0000256 0.0000800 0.0000522 0.0000102 0.0001141 0.0000288 0.10 Food &Allied BATBC 0.0000020 0.0000014 0.0000151 0.0000178 0.0000034 0.0000176 0.0000135 0.0000042 0.0000288 0.0001901 0.10 PortfolioReturn -0.000641803 PortfolioVariance 0.0000497 PortfolioStandardDeviation 0.007050716 0.0541576 Company ABBank Apex Spinning Aftab IBNSINA GP LankabanglaLafarge Jamunaoil RAK BATBC Weight 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Sector Company Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Covariance Weight Bank ABBank 0.0001859 0.0000030 -0.0000495 -0.0000264 -0.0000340 0.0001004 -0.0000239 0.0000083 -0.0000034 0.0000121 0.10 Textile Apex Spinning 0.0000030 0.0005497 0.0000515 0.0001768 0.0000270 -0.0000748 0.0000467 -0.0000184 0.0000236 -0.0000246 0.10 Engineering Aftab -0.0000495 0.0000515 0.0004928 0.0002682 -0.0000072 0.0000869 0.0000903 0.0000043 0.0001448 -0.0000653 0.10 Pharmaceuticals IBNSINA -0.0000264 0.0001768 0.0002682 0.0008971 -0.0000215 -0.0000774 -0.0000115 -0.0000399 0.0000112 -0.0000785 0.10 Telecom GP -0.0000340 0.0000270 -0.0000072 -0.0000215 0.0001622 -0.0000033 0.0000182 0.0000030 -0.0000408 -0.0000215 0.10 NBFI Lankabangla 0.0001004 -0.0000748 0.0000869 -0.0000774 -0.0000033 0.0004021 0.0000577 0.0000759 0.0000922 0.0000135 0.10 Cement Lafarge -0.0000239 0.0000467 0.0000903 -0.0000115 0.0000182 0.0000577 0.0005498 0.0003295 0.0008815 -0.0000046 0.10 Fuel and power Jamunaoil 0.0000083 -0.0000184 0.0000043 -0.0000399 0.0000030 0.0000759 0.0003295 0.0004412 0.0007291 0.0000134 0.10 Ceramic RAK -0.0000034 0.0000236 0.0001448 0.0000112 -0.0000408 0.0000922 0.0008815 0.0007291 0.0023376 -0.0000073 0.10 Food &Allied BATBC 0.0000121 -0.0000246 -0.0000653 -0.0000785 -0.0000215 0.0000135 -0.0000046 0.0000134 -0.0000073 0.0000850 0.10 PortfolioReturn 0.000740908 PortfolioVariance 0.0001137 PortfolioStandardDeviation 0.010665142 0.0832974
  • 22. 22 Up factor and down factor determination: After getting all the quarterly standard deviation we can calculate the up and down factor for all the quarter by following the below formula: U= 𝒆^𝝏√𝒕 d= 𝟏/𝒖 Finally, the up factor and down factor has been calculated for every period which has been given below- u d Q4(2016) 1.13858149 0.878286 Q1(2017) 1.158975145 0.862831 Q2(2017) 1.055650897 0.947283 Q3(2017) 1.086864958 0.920078 Portfolio value and option price determination As the initial investment is Tk 1000000 so multiplying by the up factor value of up can be made and multiplying by the down factor value of portfolio down can be determined. This strategy has been followed for every node of every quarter according their up and down factor. Now the value of portfolio and option price are given below- Portfolio value for each quarter
  • 23. 23 Q4(2017) 1.13858149 0.878286 1514029 Q1(2018) 1.158975145 0.862831 1393024 Q2(2018) 1.055650897 0.947283 1281690 Q3(2018) 1.086864958 0.920078 1319588 1358606 1250023 1150118 1138581 1127161 1037075 954189.7 982403.7 1011452 930614.2 856237.2 1000000 1167901 1074559 988677.7 1017911 1048010 964250.1 887184.8 878285.8 869476.1 799985.4 736048.6 757812.5 780219.9 717862.8 660489.4 Node Time Q0 Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
  • 24. 24 Delta calculation Through the call option value and portfolio value call delta can be calculated. Here it has been assumed that closing price equal to strike price. Subtracting the K from portfolio value we get option price. And after that probability and present value factor has been calculated to find out the up and value of call option. Now for probability calculation the following formula has been used. P = (𝒂−𝒅)/(𝒖−𝒅) Here, a=𝒆^𝒓Δ𝒕 u= up factor d= down factor So probability for down factor will be = 1- P Finally value of call option has been calculated through the following formula Value of call option = 𝑒^(−𝑟𝑡)(portfolio up ×p +portfolio down×1-p) After finding out the value of call option delta value has been calculated through the following formula- Delta = (𝑓𝑢−𝑓𝑑)/(𝑆0𝑢−𝑆0𝑑) Now the delta for each quarter is given below:
  • 27. 27 Put Option Dynamics Put option Strike price (1000000*1.08) tk.= 1080000 u d a p (1-p) T-bill rate C.C Rate PVF Q4(2016) 1.13858149 0.878286 1.032898 0.593988 0.406012 Q4(03/10/2017) 3.25% 0.032369 0.99194 Q1(2018) 1.158975145 0.862831 1.030032 0.564594 0.435406 Q1(02/01/2018) 2.97% 0.02959 0.99263 Q2(2018) 1.055650897 0.947283 1.028295 0.747568 0.252432 Q2(10/04/2018) 2.80% 0.027902 0.993049 Q3(2018) 1.086864958 0.920078 1.042150 0.731906 0.268094 Q3(03/07/2018) 4% 0.04 0.989732 1514029 0 1393023.884 0 1281690 0 1319587.647 0 1358606 0 1250022.759 0 1150118 0 1138581 22523.22 1127161 0 1037075.365 33382.60027 954189.7 125810.3 982403.7166 52113.35669 1011452 68548.03 930614.2011 109028.9625 856237.2 223762.8 1000000 67368.47349 1167901 0 1074559.145 24231.5318 988677.7 91322.3 1017911.458 36622.95017 1048010 31990.38 964250.0763 74335.27202 887184.8 192815.2 878285.8 134324.3 869476.1 210523.9 799985.4345 243765.8754 736048.6 343951.4 757812.4894 263305.0627 780219.9 299780.1 717862.7813 328471.2053 660489.4 419510.6 Q0 Q4 (2016) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
  • 28. 28 Call Option 91day u d a p (1-p) T-bill rate C.CRate PVF Q4(2016) 1.13858149 0.878286 1.032898221 0.593988 0.406012 Q4(03/10/2016) 3.25% 0.03236868 0.991940489 Q1(2017) 1.158975145 0.862831 1.030032404 0.564594261 0.435406 Q1(02/01/2017) 2.97% 0.029590282 0.992629729 Q2(2017) 1.055650897 0.947283 1.028295355 0.74756817 0.252432 Q2(10/04/2017) 2.80% 0.027902455 0.993048664 Q3(2017) 1.086864958 0.920078 1.042150 0.731906302 0.268094 Q3(03/07/2017) 4% 0.04 0.989731542 1514029 434028.8461 1393023.884 367923.0507 1281690 201689.9407 1319587.647 328391.0315 1358606 278605.934 1250022.759 220424.6806 1150118 70117.8221 1138581.49 195002.3717 1127161 47160.87365 1037075.365 34162.90078 954189.7 0 982403.7166 25361.56636 1011452 0 930614.2011 0 856237.2 0 1000000 125564.7413 1167901 87900.68019 1074559.145 63674.43991 988677.7 0 1017911.458 47270.09406 1048010 0 964250.0763 0 887184.8 0 878285.8398 26491.72291 869476.1 0 799985.4345 0 736048.6 0 757812.4894 0 780219.9 0 717862.7813 0 660489.4 0 Q0 Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018)
  • 29. 29 Dynamic asset allocation Each and every time new portfolio is formed according to delta. Over the period investment pattern will not be same. If market goes up then investment will be made in new shares. On the other hand if market goes down then investment will be made in risk free asset. Now according to our delta dynamic asset allocation has been given below: Quarter 0 Quarter 0 100% Equity portfolio 1000000 Insured portfolio 1067368 Initial Delta 0.647382 New Portfolio Shares (0.843127*1000000) 647381.7 T-bill 419986.7 Total 1067368 Quarter 4(2017) 100% Equity portfolio 1138581 Insured portfolio 1161105 Shares (0.84313*1061250) 737096.9 T-bill 424007.9 Total 1161105 New Delta 0.898707 Sell (.097526102*1061250) Shares 286154 Buy T-bill 286154 New Portfolio Shares (.94065*1061250) 1023251 T-bill 710161.8 Total 1733413
  • 30. 30 Quarter 4b (2017) 100% Equity portfolio 878285.8 Insured portfolio 1012610 Shares (0.84313*942285) 568586.2 T-bill 444023.9 Total 1012610 New Delta 0.181739 Sell (0.3693*942285) Shares 408967.5 Buy T-bill 408967.5 New Portfolio Shares (0.47383*942285) 159618.7 T-bill 852991.4 Total 1012610 Quarter 1a (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1319588 Insured portfolio 1319588 Shares (0.84313*1155791) 1185922 T-bill 133665.4 Total 1319588 New Delta 1.031449 Buy (0.18832*1155791) Shares 175165.1 Sell T-bill 175165.1 New Portfolio Shares (1.03145*1155791) 1361087 T-bill -41499.7 Total 1319588 Quarter 1b (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 982403.7 Insured portfolio 1034517 Shares (0.84313*974442) 882892.8 T-bill 151624.2 Total 1034517 New Delta 0.320895 Sell (0.33858*974442) Shares 567644 Buy T-bill 567644 New Portfolio Shares (0..50455*974442) 315248.9 T-bill 719268.2 Total 1034517
  • 31. 31 Quarter 1c (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1017911 Insured portfolio 1054534 Shares (0.84313*1026229) 184994.1 T-bill 869540.3 Total 1054534 New Delta 0.577237 Sell (0..08601*1026229) Shares -402582 Buy T-bill -402582 New Portfolio Shares (0.92914*1026229) 587575.8 T-bill 466958.6 Total 1054534 Quarter 1d (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 757812.5 Insured portfolio 1021118 Shares (0.84313*865209) 137724 T-bill 883393.6 Total 1021118 New Delta 0 Sell (0.84313*865209) Shares 137724 Buy T-bill 137724 New Portfolio Shares 0 T-bill 1021118 Total 1021118 Quarter 2a (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1393024 Insured portfolio 1393024 Shares (0.84313*1219549) 1436833 T-bill -43809.2 Total 1393024 New Delta 1 Buy Shares 218523.7 Sell T-bill 218523.7 New Portfolio Shares (1*1219549) 1393024 T-bill 0
  • 32. 32 Total 1393024 Quarter 2b (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1250023 Insured portfolio 1250023 Shares (.84313*1095365) 1289335 T-bill -39312 Total 1250023 New Delta 1 Buy Shares 196091.1 Sell T-bill 196091.1 New Portfolio Shares (1*1095365) 1250023 T-bill 0 Total 1250023 Quarter 2c (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1037075 Insured portfolio 1070458 Shares (0.50455*1028196) 332792.7 T-bill 737665.2 Total 1070458 New Delta 0.272652 Buy Shares -50032.4 Sell T-bill -50032.4 New Portfolio Shares (0.54196*1028196) 282760.3 T-bill 787697.6 Total 1070458 Quarter 2d (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 930614.2 Insured portfolio 1039643 Shares 298629.8 T-bill 741013.3 Total 1039643 New Delta 0 Sell Shares 298629.8 Buy T-bill 298629.8 New Portfolio Shares 0
  • 33. 33 T-bill 1039643 Total 1039643 Quarter 2e (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1074559 Insured portfolio 1098791 Shares 620274.9 T-bill 478515.7 Total 1098791 New Delta 0.490454 Buy Shares -93252.8 Sell T-bill -93252.8 New Portfolio Shares (2.519892*1620038) 527022.1 T-bill 571768.5 Total 1098791 Quarter 2f (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 964250.1 Insured portfolio 1038585 Shares 556600.5 T-bill 481984.8 Total 1038585 New Delta 0 Sell (0.512999*687346.8) Shares 556600.5 Buy T-bill 556600.5 New Portfolio Shares 0 T-bill 1038585 Total 1038585 Quarter 2g (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 799985.4 Insured portfolio 1043751 Shares 0 T-bill 1043751 Total 1043751 New Delta 0
  • 34. 34 New Portfolio Shares 0 T-bill 1043751 Total 1043751 Quarter 2h (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 717862.8 Insured portfolio 1046334 Shares 0 T-bill 1046334 Total 1046334 New Delta 0 New Portfolio Shares 0 T-bill 1046334 Total 1046334 Quarter 3a (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1514028.846 Insured portfolio 1514028.846 1 shares * 1288663.896 1514028.846 0 T-Bill 0 Total 1514028.846 Quarter 3b (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1281689.941 Insured portfolio 1281689.941 1 shares * 1154141.364 1281689.941 0 T-Bill 0 Total 1281689.941 Quarter 3c (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1358605.934
  • 35. 35 Insured portfolio 1358605.934 1 shares * 1157442.358 1358605.934 T-Bill 0 Total 1358605.934 Quarter 3d (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1150117.822 Insured portfolio 1150117.822 1 shares*1036617.931 1150117.822 T-Bill 0 Total 1150117.822 Quarter 3e (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1127160.874 Insured portfolio 1127160.874 0.64196 shares * 1086466.539 307322.2843 T-bill 819838.5894 Total 1127160.874 Quarter 3f (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 954189.7151 Insured portfolio 1080000 0.54196 shares * 973051.218 260161.4106 T-Bill 819838.5894 Total 1080000 Quarter 3g (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1011451.965 Insured portfolio 1080000 0 shares*975834.2708 0 T-Bill 1080000 Total 1080000 Quarter 3h (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 856237.1929
  • 36. 36 Insured portfolio 1080000 0 Shares * 873967.7582 0 T-Bill 1080000 Total 1080000 Quarter 3i (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1167900.68 Insured portfolio 1167900.68 0.99803 shares* 1144206.969 572801.8956 T-Bill 595098.7846 Total 1167900.68 Quarter 3j (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 988677.6976 Insured portfolio 1080000 0.99803 shares*1024764.174 484901.2154 T-Bill 595098.7846 Total 1080000 Quarter 3 k(2018) 100% Equity portfolio 1048009.619 Insured portfolio 1080000 0 shares*1027695.132 0 T-Bill 1080000 Total 1080000 Quarter 3L (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 887184.8051 Insured portfolio 1080000 0 shares*920414.9082 0 T-Bill 1080000 Total 1080000 Quarter 3m (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 869476.1361
  • 37. 37 Insured portfolio 1080000 0 shares * 964675.5761 0 T-Bill 1080000 Total 1080000 Quarter 3n (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 736048.6032 Insured portfolio 1080000 0 shares * 863973.9102 0 T-Bill 1080000 Total 1080000 Quarter 3p (2018) 100% Equity portfolio 780219.902 Insured portfolio 1080000 0 shares*866444.9878 0 T-Bill 1080000 Total 1080000 Quarter 3q(2018) 100% Equity portfolio 660489.3973 Insured portfolio 1080000 0 shares * 775997.5298 0 T-Bill 1080000 Total= 1080000
  • 38. 38 Comparison of portfolios I have done the comparison in terms of absolute portfolio value, return on investment and Q2Q return. And I have calculated all these values in all the following four portfolios and then compare the result between those and try to find out which provide the best result. 1) Static Portfolio 2) 100 % T-bill Portfolio 3) Dynamic Portfolio 4) 100% equity portfolio 1. Static Portfolio 2. 100% T-Bill Portfolio Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018) Stock 711394 878600 826439 893342 T-Bill 355483.2917 358122.7552 360629.6145 364371.1467 Total 1066877 1236722 1187069 1257713 ROI 6.69% 23.67% 18.71% 25.77% Q2Q Return 6.69% 15.92% -4.01% 5.95% Static Portfolio Value Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018) Stock 0 0 0 0 T-Bill 1008125 1015610.328 1022719.6 1033330.316 Total 1008125 1015610 1022720 1033330 ROI 0.81% 1.56% 2.27% 3.33% Q2Q Return 0.81% 0.74% 0.70% 1.04% 100% T-bill Portfolio Value
  • 39. 39 3. 100% Equity Portfolio 4. Dynamic Portfolio Comparison Comparison in terms of absolute portfolio Value Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018) Static Portfolio 1066877 1236722 1187069 1257713 100% T-Bill portfolio 1008125 1015610 1022720 1033330 100% equity Portfolio 1098879 1357158 1276587 1379931 Dynamic Portfolio 852991 1021118 1046334 1080000 Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018) Stock 1098879 1357158 1276587 1379931 T-Bill 0 0 0 0 Total 1098879 1357158 1276587 1379931 ROI 9.89% 35.72% 27.66% 37.99% Q2Q Return 9.89% 23.50% -5.94% 8.10% 100 % equity Portfolio Value Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018) Stock 0 0 0 0 T-Bill 852991.4449 1021117.552 1046333.987 1080000 Total 852991 1021118 1046334 1080000 ROI -14.70% 2.11% 4.63% 8.00% Q2Q Return -14.70% 19.71% 2.47% 3.22% Dynamic Portfolio Value
  • 40. 40 In case of absolute portfolio value, dynamic portfolio keeps increasing in each quarter and it has the highest value in each quarter. So dynamic provides the best solution in each quarter. And 100% equity portfolio provides lowest performance amongst the four in every quarter. Comparison in terms of absolute return Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018) Static Portfolio 6.69% 23.67% 18.71% 25.77% 100% T-Bill portfolio 0.81% 1.56% 2.27% 3.33% 100% equity Portfolio 9.89% 35.72% 27.66% 37.99% Dynamic Portfolio -14.70% 2.11% 4.63% 8.00% 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018) Absolute portfolio Value Static Portfolio 100% T-Bill portfolio 100% equity Portfolio Dynamic Portfolio
  • 41. 41 While I compared the among the four options, then I found out that 100% equity provides negative return in each and every quarter. And static portfolio return was negative in the first two quarters but it improves a little bit over the next two quarter. Both 100% T-bill and dynamic portfolio provides positive return. 100% T-bill portfolio performs better than dynamic portfolio in the first quarter but in the remaining three quarter dynamic portfolio provides more return. Comparison in terms of Q2Q return Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018) Static Portfolio 6.69% 15.92% -4.01% 5.95% 100% T-Bill portfolio 0.81% 0.74% 0.70% 1.04% 100% equity Portfolio 9.89% 23.50% -5.94% 8.10% Dynamic Portfolio -14.70% 19.71% 2.47% 3.22% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018) Return on investment Static Portfolio 100% T-Bill portfolio 100% equity Portfolio Dynamic Portfolio
  • 42. 42 In the first quarter both static and 100% equity portfolio provides negative result and 100% T-bill and dynamic provides positive value. Here 100% T-bill is better than dynamic portfolio. In the second quarter, all portfolios provide positive return and among those dynamic portfolio provides more return. In the third quarter all the portfolios provide positive return but here 100% equity provides the best result. In the fourth quarter dynamic portfolio provides the best result. -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% Q4 (2017) Q1 (2018) Q2 (2018) Q3 (2018) Q2Q Return Static Portfolio 100% T-Bill portfolio 100% equity Portfolio Dynamic Portfolio
  • 43. 43 Conclusion Dynamic asset allocation strategy is the better model of portfolio investment in comparison with the static asset allocation strategy. This method provides the basis for adjustment in asset proportion in the portfolio in terms of the changes in prices of the underlying securities. This is a continuous process of changing the portfolio combination and structure which provides better insurance of the portfolio value indicating the supremacy above all other methods of portfolio construction. Dynamic asset allocation is essential to construct new portfolio with the risky and risk free asset. That means with the changes in delta either securities sell or buy to construct new portfolio. If delta increases then new risky securities will be bought and if delta decreases then some securities will be sold and risk free asset with the same amount will be bought to make new portfolio. So in the above case by the shares of 10 companies and Treasury bill it can be possible to construct portfolio with quarterly that’s why dynamic asset allocation strategy is used. Through this approach investment can be hedge out as it is constructed by considering the delta of call option. As every period portfolio construction can be changed that’s why it is dynamic asset allocation strategy not static asset allocation strategy. The basic dynamic trading approach involves replicating the insured portfolio’s price action with an ever-changing combination of positions in the underlying portfolio and the risk less asset. The proportions allocated to the underlying portfolio and the risk less asset change every period. The dynamic insurance strategy requires a significant amount of trading. By dynamic asset allocation it can be shown that how the same replication is accomplished (approximately) with either a stock portfolio and short futures positions or the risk less futures.
  • 44. 44 References 1. Options, Futures and Other Derivative Securities by John Hull. Prantice-Hall International Inc. 2. Gibson R., Heinz Z. (1996). The Benefits and Risks of Derivative Instruments: An Economic Perspective, Derivatives Use, Trading and Regulation. Geneva Paper. 3. World Federation of Exchanges, 2008c, “Equity derivatives and cash equity trading”, December 2008. 4. The case for Dynamic Asset Allocation by Mellon Capital Management Corporation Research Team. Websites  www.dsebd.org  www.secbd.org  www.bb.org.bd  www.mof.gov.bd  www.stockbangladesh.com  www.langkabanglaportal.com  www.encyclopedia.com Primary Data  DSE Trade Information Archive  DSE Dividend Archive