See what The PRS Group is covering in our September reports: This month’s coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Cuba, which re-established normal diplomatic relations with the US for the first time in more than 50 years in early August. The easing of restrictions on travel from the US to the island
Check out what The PRS Group is covering in our April reports: PRS’ coverage of the Americas in April includes a fully revised report on Mexico, where President Enrique Peña Nieto is struggling to recover from scandals involving apparent police and government involvement in the murder of 43 college students in...
View the most recent commentary from The PRS Group on international macro risk.
This month’s reporting in the Americas includes a new report on Cuba, where the implementation of market-based reforms aimed at shoring up the economic foundation ahead of a planned generational transfer of power within the governing PCC has yet to generate a substantial increase...
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in May includes an update on Chile, where the center-left coalition government is encountering political headwinds. President Michelle Bachelet’s approval rating has plummeted amid a spate of corruption scandals, including a charge of influence-peddling against her son, and dissatisfaction among the electorate with the weak performance of the economy, which government critics have blamed on uncertainty created by the New Majority administration’s tax and labor reforms.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
View the most recent commentary from The PRS Group on international macro risk.
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a post-election update on Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff only narrowly secured a second term at a run-off held in late October, and both her party, the PT, and its main ally
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in July includes an assessment of risk in Ecuador, where President Rafael Correa is scrambling to make up a massive revenue shortfall resulting from the slide in global oil prices, while simultaneously attempting to fend off pressure from a reinvigorated opposition. PRS will discuss the implications of the fiscal squeeze for political stability in the near term,
Check out what The PRS Group is covering in our April reports: PRS’ coverage of the Americas in April includes a fully revised report on Mexico, where President Enrique Peña Nieto is struggling to recover from scandals involving apparent police and government involvement in the murder of 43 college students in...
View the most recent commentary from The PRS Group on international macro risk.
This month’s reporting in the Americas includes a new report on Cuba, where the implementation of market-based reforms aimed at shoring up the economic foundation ahead of a planned generational transfer of power within the governing PCC has yet to generate a substantial increase...
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in May includes an update on Chile, where the center-left coalition government is encountering political headwinds. President Michelle Bachelet’s approval rating has plummeted amid a spate of corruption scandals, including a charge of influence-peddling against her son, and dissatisfaction among the electorate with the weak performance of the economy, which government critics have blamed on uncertainty created by the New Majority administration’s tax and labor reforms.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
View the most recent commentary from The PRS Group on international macro risk.
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a post-election update on Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff only narrowly secured a second term at a run-off held in late October, and both her party, the PT, and its main ally
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in July includes an assessment of risk in Ecuador, where President Rafael Correa is scrambling to make up a massive revenue shortfall resulting from the slide in global oil prices, while simultaneously attempting to fend off pressure from a reinvigorated opposition. PRS will discuss the implications of the fiscal squeeze for political stability in the near term,
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Dominican Republic, where the country’s wildly popular incumbent president, Danilo Medina, has given his blessing to a bid by his supporters in the governing Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) to secure a constitutional amendment that will permit him to stand for immediate re-election in 2016. That decision is a crushing blow to the
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform
This month’s coverage of the Americas features an update on Bolivia, where President Evo Morales has abandoned his
pledge to step down at the completion of his current term in January 2020, and is spearheading a campaign by the
governing MAS to amend
Informe mensual del GRUPO CREDENDO donde se analizan las evoluciones o noticias más relevantes de diferentes países. En esta ocasión: India, Kazajistán, Rumania, Argentina, Nigeria y Arabia Saudí
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
The Ukrainian economy recovered modestly by 2.3% in 2016, with a bumper agriculture harvest leading to stronger growth of 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Decisive reforms in the face of unprecedented shocks in 2014 and 2015 helped to stabilize confidence.
As a result, real GDP grew modestly by 2.3 percent in 2016 after contracting by a cumulative 16 percent in the previous two years. Signs of stronger growth of 4.8 percent (y-o-y) emerged in the fourth quarter of 2016. The recovery was supported by a bumper harvest, with agriculture growing by 6 percent in 2016 overall and 18.4 percent (y-o-y) in the fourth quarter.
Economic outlook for 2018 – more bumps in the road?DIXI Group
Macro FI CEE Special Ukraine
After a rather stable 2017, 2018 could become bumpier as elections and debt payments loom in 2019
Relations with foreign partners more strained on limited reform zeal and less patience of partners
Baseline scenario of moderate growth, somewhat weaker UAH and a return to single digit infl ation
No rating and outlook change expected; tight Eurobonds spreads might see a correction in the short run
Client Alert: Brexit - The Impact on Cost of CapitalDuff & Phelps
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum to decide whether to leave or remain as member of the European Union (EU). Against prior poll prediction, 51.9% of U.K. voters were in favor of leaving the EU, while 48.1% voted to remain a member. This decision is popularly known in the financial press as “Brexit”.
To assist in this discussion, on July 12, 2016, Duff & Phelps held the second of its Brexit webinar series entitled “The Impact on Cost of Capital,” featuring a panel of world-renowned cost of capital experts. The webcast focused on the challenges of estimating the cost of capital from the perspectives of U.S., U.K., and Eurozone investors in a post-Brexit world.
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
On the 17th of November 18, 2016 I made a presentation at the FNB Financial Journalism academy on “The Global Economy Effects on Commodity dependent countries like Zambia”. It was well received. Below are some of the highlights
Global economic outlook due to covid 19M S Siddiqui
Global coordination and cooperation-of the measures needed to slow the spread of the pandemic, and of the economic actions needed to alleviate the economic damage, including international support-provide the greatest chance of achieving public health goals and enabling a robust global recovery.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
Trump100 days- Implications for the Property Markets Guy Masse
PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ADMINISTRATION & ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROPERTY MARKETS
Measuring the success of a new Administration by its first 100 days is a tradition, and President Trump reaches his first key milestone with campaign promises to overhaul Washington and jump-start the economy. This special report provides a perspective on:
How key economic indicators (inflation, job growth) and commercial real estate are performing so far
The status of key policy proposals, including trade and defense
What to watch for beyond the first 100 days
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
The global high yield bond markets have witnessed sentiment to risk-off mode. This has since been partially significant growth and diversification over the last few years aided by the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation provided by central banks across the world. The unprecedented liquidity made available at record low yields has thus led to a significant pick up in both primary market and secondary market activity in the asset class. Banking disintermediation in Europe and regulatory changes in the financial sector further contributed to the deepening and diversification of the high yield bond markets even as emerging market issuances entered the fray.
In this backdrop, Aranca’s special report – High Yield Bonds - The Rise of the Fallen – examines how liquidity concerns have increased with changing regulatory environment, rising capital requirements and declining risk appetite leading to decreasing bond inventories at both banks and other dealers even as corporate bond issuances are at an all-time high.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
This month’s coverage of the Americas includes a fully revised report on Argentina, where the end of 12 years of continuous
rule by the Kirchner dynasty appears to signal a retreat from the heterodox populism that characterized the policy approach
of Nestor Kirchner and Christina Fernandez. The pro-government FPV lost its majority in the lower house of Congress, and its presidential candidate
The legislative election scheduled for June 7 figures to be a high-stakes affair, as the outcome will have
significant implications for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plan to replace Turkey’s mixed presidential
and parliamentary system of government with a presidential model. Erdogan is hoping that the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP)
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Dominican Republic, where the country’s wildly popular incumbent president, Danilo Medina, has given his blessing to a bid by his supporters in the governing Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) to secure a constitutional amendment that will permit him to stand for immediate re-election in 2016. That decision is a crushing blow to the
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform
This month’s coverage of the Americas features an update on Bolivia, where President Evo Morales has abandoned his
pledge to step down at the completion of his current term in January 2020, and is spearheading a campaign by the
governing MAS to amend
Informe mensual del GRUPO CREDENDO donde se analizan las evoluciones o noticias más relevantes de diferentes países. En esta ocasión: India, Kazajistán, Rumania, Argentina, Nigeria y Arabia Saudí
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
The Ukrainian economy recovered modestly by 2.3% in 2016, with a bumper agriculture harvest leading to stronger growth of 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Decisive reforms in the face of unprecedented shocks in 2014 and 2015 helped to stabilize confidence.
As a result, real GDP grew modestly by 2.3 percent in 2016 after contracting by a cumulative 16 percent in the previous two years. Signs of stronger growth of 4.8 percent (y-o-y) emerged in the fourth quarter of 2016. The recovery was supported by a bumper harvest, with agriculture growing by 6 percent in 2016 overall and 18.4 percent (y-o-y) in the fourth quarter.
Economic outlook for 2018 – more bumps in the road?DIXI Group
Macro FI CEE Special Ukraine
After a rather stable 2017, 2018 could become bumpier as elections and debt payments loom in 2019
Relations with foreign partners more strained on limited reform zeal and less patience of partners
Baseline scenario of moderate growth, somewhat weaker UAH and a return to single digit infl ation
No rating and outlook change expected; tight Eurobonds spreads might see a correction in the short run
Client Alert: Brexit - The Impact on Cost of CapitalDuff & Phelps
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum to decide whether to leave or remain as member of the European Union (EU). Against prior poll prediction, 51.9% of U.K. voters were in favor of leaving the EU, while 48.1% voted to remain a member. This decision is popularly known in the financial press as “Brexit”.
To assist in this discussion, on July 12, 2016, Duff & Phelps held the second of its Brexit webinar series entitled “The Impact on Cost of Capital,” featuring a panel of world-renowned cost of capital experts. The webcast focused on the challenges of estimating the cost of capital from the perspectives of U.S., U.K., and Eurozone investors in a post-Brexit world.
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
On the 17th of November 18, 2016 I made a presentation at the FNB Financial Journalism academy on “The Global Economy Effects on Commodity dependent countries like Zambia”. It was well received. Below are some of the highlights
Global economic outlook due to covid 19M S Siddiqui
Global coordination and cooperation-of the measures needed to slow the spread of the pandemic, and of the economic actions needed to alleviate the economic damage, including international support-provide the greatest chance of achieving public health goals and enabling a robust global recovery.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
Trump100 days- Implications for the Property Markets Guy Masse
PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ADMINISTRATION & ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROPERTY MARKETS
Measuring the success of a new Administration by its first 100 days is a tradition, and President Trump reaches his first key milestone with campaign promises to overhaul Washington and jump-start the economy. This special report provides a perspective on:
How key economic indicators (inflation, job growth) and commercial real estate are performing so far
The status of key policy proposals, including trade and defense
What to watch for beyond the first 100 days
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
The global high yield bond markets have witnessed sentiment to risk-off mode. This has since been partially significant growth and diversification over the last few years aided by the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation provided by central banks across the world. The unprecedented liquidity made available at record low yields has thus led to a significant pick up in both primary market and secondary market activity in the asset class. Banking disintermediation in Europe and regulatory changes in the financial sector further contributed to the deepening and diversification of the high yield bond markets even as emerging market issuances entered the fray.
In this backdrop, Aranca’s special report – High Yield Bonds - The Rise of the Fallen – examines how liquidity concerns have increased with changing regulatory environment, rising capital requirements and declining risk appetite leading to decreasing bond inventories at both banks and other dealers even as corporate bond issuances are at an all-time high.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
This month’s coverage of the Americas includes a fully revised report on Argentina, where the end of 12 years of continuous
rule by the Kirchner dynasty appears to signal a retreat from the heterodox populism that characterized the policy approach
of Nestor Kirchner and Christina Fernandez. The pro-government FPV lost its majority in the lower house of Congress, and its presidential candidate
The legislative election scheduled for June 7 figures to be a high-stakes affair, as the outcome will have
significant implications for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plan to replace Turkey’s mixed presidential
and parliamentary system of government with a presidential model. Erdogan is hoping that the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP)
Manage the risks and profit from global market uncertainty - The world of country and political risk assessment has changed significantly over the last decade, with a plethora of views and approaches that can often obfuscate clear and balanced
International Country Risk Guide May 2015 - This table lists the total points for each of the following political risk components out of the maximum points indicated. The
Table 5B - Economic Risk Points By Component from the May 2015 ICRG for 140 c...The PRS Group, Inc.
Table 5B - Economic Risk Points By Component - This table lists the risk points awarded to each of the Economic Risk components. The maximum points available for each component are given in parentheses in the column heading. The final columns in the table show the overall economic risk rating...
Our coverage of Latin America includes an update on Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff’s political authority
is threatened by an ever-widening corruption scandal that has turned some of her key allies into hostile enemies,
complicating an already diffi cult task of balancing the competing imperatives of reviving a stagnating economy and
retaining the confi dence of foreign investors.
Uncertainty, Instability, and Insecurity Will Erode Confidence - The political uncertainty created by the inconclusive result of a general election held in early June will persist for at least several more months, as the failure of the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) to reach a coalition agreement with either the Republican People’s Party (CHP) or the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has necessitated the
With analysts placed globally, we supplement our forecasting
methodology with human sources around the world. The following examples represent analysis The PRS Group
has provided clients in the past, providing invaluable insight into pressing challenges worldwide.
Political risk quarterly update Q3 2016Graeme Cross
Complementing the annual Political Risk Map, Aon’s political
risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global
Economics, an independent, global research firm founded in 2004
by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini.
PRS’ coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff’s second term has gotten off to a very rocky start, with a widening corruption scandal at state-owned Petrobras that poses a threat to the unity of Rousseff’s legislative coalition. Her political troubles come at a most inopportune time. A sluggish economy and a pre-election spending spree contributed to a widening of the fiscal deficit last year, and the government is under pressure to reassure
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for BusinessAPCO
The Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar which anticipates the opportunities and risks global businesses will face in the coming months. You can find prior editions at the APCO website.
Complementing the annual Political Risk Map, Aon’s political risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global Economics, an independent, global research firm originally founded in 2004 by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. The newsletter is released on a quarterly basis and provides insight into levels and types of Political Risk in non-EU and -OECD countries.
Complementing the annual Political Risk Map, Aon’s political risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global Economics, an independent, global research firm founded in 2004 by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. The newsletter is released on a quarterly basis and provides insight into levels and types of Political Risk in non-EU and -OECD countries.
Export - Political risk map newsletterDavid Wilson
Are you currently exporting or thinking about exporting to different parts of the world?
Aon’s political risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global Economics, an independent global research firm. The newsletter aims to provide insight to the opportunity, risks and challenges of trading overseas.
Aon can help your business grow confidently in the following ways;
• Identify quality customers, by providing up to date risk information
• Cover pre-credit risk, particularly useful if you make bespoke products
• Help you win business by offering the best credit terms with confidence, by insuring invoices you raise against default or insolvency
• Collection services, if you need support to collect payment abroad, removing
If you are looking to expand into new markets and would like some additional information, or would like to offer credit terms with the confidence your invoice will be paid in the event of default or insolvency, please do not hesitate to get in touch.
David.wilson@aon.co.uk
Tel: 07979 532 775
The APCO Geopolitical Risk Radar (AGRR) offers a timely snapshot of the global operating environment for businesses. It predicts how regional risks come together at a global level and offers a baseline from which to develop strategies to navigate, mitigate and grow through these risks.
The APCO Geopolitical Risk Radar (AGRR), is an overview of geopolitical risks posed to global corporations in critical operating regions.
AGRR reflects our understanding of the regional risks facing businesses and how these risks come together at a global level. It is intended as a baseline from which to develop strategies that navigate and mitigate these risks.
This report looks at emerging trends for Q2 2023 and was published in March 2023.
The regional insights represent the best thinking of APCO corporate advisory practitioners. With nearly 1,000 people across more than 30 global locations, our analysis draws on decades of experience and insights serving corporations that operate globally.
The final part of AGRR features our Geopolitical Conversation Risk Index, which illustrates the attention global media gives each risk and the degree to which Fortune 500 companies are already acting or are likely to take action.
** Correction: The Turkish election is May 14, not June. For a corrected version, please click here: https://www.slideshare.net/apcoworldwide/apco-geopolitical-risk-radar-q2-2023
The APCO Geopolitical Risk Radar (AGRR), is an overview of geopolitical risks posed to
global corporations in critical operating regions.
AGRR reflects our understanding of the regional risks facing businesses and how these risks come together at a global level. It is intended as a baseline from which to develop strategies that navigate and mitigate these risks.
This report looks at emerging trends for Q2 2023 and was published in March 2023.
The regional insights represent the best thinking of APCO corporate advisory practitioners. With nearly 1,000 people across more than 30 global locations, our analysis draws on decades of experience and insights serving corporations that operate globally.
The final part of AGRR features our Geopolitical Conversation Risk Index, which illustrates the attention global media gives each risk and the degree to which Fortune 500 companies are already acting or are likely to take action.
Week 7 Discussion - Global Trends for the Future International Bus.docxcockekeshia
Week 7 Discussion - Global Trends for the Future International Business
After reading "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" choose one "Relative Certainty" and one "Key Uncertainty" and express your opinion on the topic and whether or not you agree.
The 2025 Global Landscape
Relative Certainties
Likely Impact
A global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India, and others. The relative power of nonstate actors - businesses, tribes, religious organizations, and even criminal networks-also will increase.
By 2025 a single "international community" composed of nation-states will no longer exist. Power will be more dispersed with the newer players bringing new rules of the game while risks will increase that the traditional Western alliances will weaken. Rather than emulating Western models of political and economic development, more countries may be attracted to China's alternative development model.
The unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power roughly from West to East now under way will continue.
As some countries become more invested in their economic well-being, incentives toward geopolitical stability could increase. However, the transfer is strengthening states like Russia that want to challenge the Western order.
The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant.
Shrinking economic and military capabilities may force the US into a difficult set of tradeoffs between domestic versus foreign policy priorities.
Continued economic growth-coupled with 1.2 billion more people by 2025 - will put pressure on energy, food, and water resources.
The pace of technological innovation will be key to outcomes during this period. All current technologies are inadequate for replacing traditional energy architecture on the scale needed.
The number of countries with youthful populations in the "arc of instability"1 will decrease, but the populations of several youth-bulge states are projected to remain on rapid growth trajectories.
Unless employment conditions change dramatically in parlous youth-bulge states such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen, these countries will remain ripe for continued instability and state failure.
The potential for conflict will increase owing to rapid changes in parts of the
greater Middle East and the spread of lethal capabilities.
The need for the US to act as regional balancer in the Middle East will increase, although other outside powers-Russia, China and India-will play greater roles than today.
Terrorism is unlikely to disappear by 2025, but its appeal could lessen if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorists that are active the diffusion of technologies will put dangerous capabilities within their reach.
Opportunities for mass-casualty terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, or less likely, nuclear
weapons will increase as technology diffuses and nuclear power (and possibl.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
The APCO Geopolitical Risk Radar (AGRR) offers a timely snapshot of the global operating environment for businesses. It predicts how regional risks come together at a global level and offers a baseline from which to develop strategies to navigate, mitigate and grow through these risks.
Thailand Flash Forecast:Sidelining Democracy - The 36-member committee tasked with drafting a new constitution for Thailand has revealed that the entire Senate in a future civilian-run political order will be indirectly elected, with members chosen from a hand-picked pool of candidates made up...
Continuity a Top Priority as Political Transition Stirs Anxiety The political uncertainty created by the death of King Abdullah on January 23 will reinforce the already heightened...To find out how to receive all of our flash forecasts on a regular basis contact us - https://www.prsgroup.com/contact-us
Published for more than 30 years, ICRG has been the subject of study after study at such institutions as Duke, Harvard, University of Chicago and NYU. They all agree that ICRG is one of the most reliable risk forecasting systems available.
Security will stay high on the government’s agenda amid concerns over the rise of ISIL, a Sunni jihadist group that has gained control over large sections of Syria and Iraq. ISIL militants overwhelmed Iraqi military forces following the launch of major offensive in June, and while the advance was largely halted with
*Iraq * Thailand * United Kingdom* In Iraq: The re-emergence of sectarian tensions has heightened the risk that local tribal leaders, whose cooperation with the US forces was instrumental in preventing radical Islamists from establishing a
View the latest commentary on Iraq from The PRS Group. Now more a decade on from the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Iraq remains deeply troubled by dangerous ethnic and sectarian divisions, woeful security conditions, and chronic political instability in Baghdad that has undermined the
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
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I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
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@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
1. Reproduction without written permission of The PRS Group, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Quantitative Risk Global Expertise Independent
SEPTEMBER COMING SOON
This month’s coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Cuba, which re-established normal diplomatic
relations with the US for the first time in more than 50 years in early August. The easing of restrictions on travel from
the US to the island has already given a boost to the tourism industry, and an increase in the limit on remittances will
increase the purchasing power of Cuban households, to the benefit of consumer-focused retailers and service providers.
However, the economic impact of the diplomatic thaw
will be limited by the maintenance of the US embargo
on bilateral trade and investment, which is unlikely to
be relaxed in the absence of substantive political reform
in Cuba. The report will assess the prospects for near-
term progress on that front, and will also discuss the
broader trade and investment implications for President
Raul Castro’s ongoing program of economic reforms,
examining in particular developments related to the
Mariel port and free-trade zone to illuminate the
opportunities and pitfalls for foreign firms looking to
do business on the island.
Our detailed coverage of Western Europe includes a new report on Finland, which was the only member of the EU to
register an economic contraction during the second quarter of 2015. The analysis will include an exploration of what
has gone wrong for an economy that was one of the world’s star performers during the high-tech boom, but which
is now stuck in recession, and an assessment of the potential for the policy prescriptions offered by the center-right
coalition government formed after the April 2015 elections to reverse the declining trend. The decline of Finland’s
traditional electronics and forestry products industries point to an urgent need for structural reforms, including
changes to labor rules that are strongly opposed by the unions, but Finland also faces challenges stemming from a
breakdown in relations with neighboring Russia, a principal trade partner, and the policy constraints imposed by the
country’s euro-zone membership. Our report also assesses whether the three-way coalition can survive for a full-term,
given the likelihood of policy disagreements between pro-EU elements and the more euroskeptic Finns party, which
is also stirring controversy with its hardline position on immigration.
PRS’ coverage of Eastern Europe will feature an update on conditions in Ukraine, where the pro-western government
elected last year is struggling to meet the challenges posed by a badly damaged economy and Russia’s not-so-subtle
efforts to destabilize the regime in Kiev. The government has managed to reach a debt-restructuring agreement
with international creditors, one of the key conditions attached to an IMF-sponsored bailout program. However,
2. Reproduction without written permission of The PRS Group, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Quantitative Risk Global Expertise Independent
President Petro Poroshenko’s push for legislation that grants limited political autonomy to eastern regions controlled
by Russian-backed rebels, in fulfillment of the terms of a cease-fire agreement concluded earlier this year, has already
provoked the defection on one of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s coalition partners, and is fueling broader
political tensions, a fact highlighted by the eruption of deadly violence in Kiev, where armed right-wing nationalists
protesting the legislation clashed with police. Our update will examine the government’s prospects for implementing
the reforms outlined in the IMF agreement, which hold the potential to create significant opportunities for foreign
investors. Key elements of the analysis will include an assessment of the outlook for government stability, which will
be essential to achieving parliamentary approval of reforms, as well as relations with both the EU and Russia, which
will significantly affect economic performance.
Turning to the Middle East and North Africa, PRS will focus on Iraq, where a fragile coalition government already
struggling to contain the spread of the Islamic State insurgency and grapple with the financial challenges posed by
a steep decline in the global price for oil has more recently confronted large-scale protests animated by frustration
over government corruption and the abysmal state of public services. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has at least
temporarily staved off a broader crisis by securing approval of far-reaching political reforms, but the deep mistrust
between the country’s Sunni and Shiite communities poses an ever-present threat to the survival of Abadi’s inclusive
government, the collapse of which would create a very real risk of national fragmentation. In addition to assessing the
Baghdad administration’s viability, PRS will analyze security conditions in the country, in particular, the potential for
pushing back Islamic State jihadists whose control of major cities and important oil facilities creates an impediment
to ensuring stability even in the areas still under government control.
Nigeria is the principal focus of our sub-Saharan Africa coverage this month, as we take the opportunity to assess
the first 100 days in office for President Muhammadu Buhari, the All Progressives Congress opposition candidate
and former army general who beat Goodluck Jonathan in a surprisingly calm transfer of power at the elections
in March. Our report hones in on Buhari’s slow start to governance, highlighting the regional bias evident in the
still-incomplete process of forming his Cabinet, and what investors might expect in terms of the policy response to
Nigeria’s increasingly desperate economic situation, which thus far has been painfully slow. Our report weighs up
whether Buhari is capable of bridging sectional and regional divisions, and whether he possesses the political strength
and leadership ability to effectively clamp down on corruption and address the security risks posed by the Boko
Haram insurgency. Our report looks for pointers to any other prospective improvements in the investor climate given
the equally considerable challenges to fiscal-macro stability presented by the continuing negative oil shock, which is
still putting pressure on the currency and is now threatening recession.
3. Reproduction without written permission of The PRS Group, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Quantitative Risk Global Expertise Independent
Founded in 1979, the PRS Group is among the earliest commercial providers of political and country risk forecasts. Origi-
nally the Political Risk Services division of Frost & Sullivan, Inc. and then of UK-based IBC Group (now known as In-
forma), the firm occupies a niche market in the risk sector through the application of two globally recognized, proprietary,
quant-driven, and back-tested methodologies: Political Risk Services (PRS) and the International Country Risk Guide
(ICRG). A number of products based on these two risk rating systems are produced at regular intervals throughout the year.
The firm and its methodologies for assessing risk are the product of research conducted by Professors William Coplin and
Michael O’Leary of the Maxwell School of Public Affairs at Syracuse University in conjunction with the US Department
of State and the CIA. The overall goal was to develop an intellectually rigorous way of assessing the various components of
country risk that could be applied to a range of institutional settings. In the wake of the Iranian Revolution, where many
foreign firms were nationalized, the importance of the work intensified.
Our publications and data are used extensively worldwide by investors and businesses, colleges and universities, private
equity groups, and all of the main multilateral institutions.
Christopher McKee, PhD
CEO & Owner
Client Relations
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Elsewhere, US President Barack Obama’s visit to Kenya in July put the country under global spotlight, allowing
President Uhuru Kenyatta and the governing Jubilee Alliance to boast of growing US support for Kenya’s anti-
terrorism efforts, while concluding a series of business deals with US companies. However, the visit also served to
highlight the government’s mixed record on governance, as Obama prominently warned of a “cancer of corruption”
that is costing the country 250,000 jobs a year. Soon after, Kenya’s auditor general revealed that 26% of the 2013/2014
budget cannot be adequately accounted for.
The parliament is set to debate the long-awaited legislation on petroleum and mining industries, with the constitutional
deadline for this and other key bills recently extended till August 2016. But corruption and security will remain the
key issues as Kenya’s political establishment starts gearing up for the August 2017 presidential election. The economy
remains extremely vulnerable to terrorist violence, although the absence of high-profile attacks by extremist Islamists
linked to Somalia’s Al Shabaab group has created space for a tentative pickup in the tourism industry.
Corruption, security concerns and lower tourism receipts will remain a drag on the economy, denting the boost
from infrastructure investment and lower energy prices. The government’s growth target of 6.9% in 2015 will likely
have to be revised closer to the 6% mark, with downside risks posed by a tightening monetary policy in response to
a depreciating shilling. At the same time, higher spending on security and on the Mombasa-Nairobi railway project
forced the government to raise the budget deficit target to 8.7% of GDP, adding to concerns related to rising levels
of public debt.