Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key elements of the reform

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JANUARY COMING SOON
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfilling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform program may be closing, as the president can expect to face pressure from her legislative allies
to focus on policies that hold the potential to give the
economic a lift in the near term. The report will examine
the political challenges that lie in store for Bachelet and
her Cabinet, and offer a fresh assessment of the prospects
for successful implementation of reforms now that time
has taken a bit of the shine off the second-term president.
Looking at the Middle East and North Africa, PRS
will issue a fully revised report on Egypt, where the
post-revolutionary order is increasingly becoming
indistinguishable from what came before, with a former
general seated at the center of power, the Islamist
opposition outlawed and repressed, and the government’s
ability to intimidate its enemies greatly enhanced by the
implementation of security measures that grant broad powers to silence unacceptable (as defined by authorities) forms
of dissent. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has indicated that overdue legislative elections might be held by March 2015,
but with the Muslim Brotherhood once again pushed to the political margins and the secular opposition divided and
dispirited, with several of its most prominent leaders behind bars, there is little reason to doubt that Sisi’s allies will
dominate the legislature.
On the economic front, the government has been sounding all the right notes. The interim regime secured approval of
its economic reform program from the IMF in November, and government leaders have promised a thorough overhaul
of investment rules and the regulatory framework, with the aim of attracting at least $15 billion of FDI per year and
generating annual real GDP growth of 6%. But it is clear that any chance of coming close to those targets will require
not only the establishment of a more predictable legal climate for investment and trade, but also a stable political climate
within which to conduct business operations. The report will discuss the necessary conditions for success on both of
those fronts, and assess the likelihood that the numerous potential sources of instability, including a radicalized Islamist
community, the democratic aspirations of political activists who have helped to topple two governments in the space of
less than three years, and a population that is eagerly anticipating a rapid economic recovery.

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Ghana’s presidential election in 2016 looks set to be a rematch of the 2012 showdown between President John Mahama
and opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo, after both men recently fended off challenges for the nominations of their
respective parties. The incumbent National Democratic Congress has been rattled by a combination of slowing
economic growth, currency depreciation, and corruption scandals, which have dealt a severe blow to Mahama’s re-
election chances. A ballooning fiscal deficit has pushed the public debt burden above 60% of GDP, and officials are
expected to implement tax increases and public-sector spending cuts in a bid to secure a three-year loan facility with
the IMF. The report will assess the likely impact of austerity measures on economic performance, and discuss the
implications of disappointing growth for political stability over the medium term.
Our Western European coverage kicks off 2015 with an in-depth assessment of the challenges facing France, as the
political problems continue to mount for President Francois Hollande’s reshuffled Socialist Party government, which is
still trying to balance the competing aims of fiscal correction against the urgent need to produce sustainable growth and
tackle high unemployment. The government faces the prospect of more labor strikes and politically motivated protests,
and regional elections fall due in March. PRS will assess how public pressure and electoral considerations might affect
the Socialist government’s policy strategy in the coming months. In that regard, the potential for a fresh surge of support
for the far-right National Front in the wake of the early January terrorist attack in Paris merits close attention, as do the
implications of the deadly assault on the offices of Charlie Hebdo for broader security risks inside France. The report
will also examine the economic outlook for the most fragile of Europe’s “core” economies, and what it means for the
broader stability of the euro zone.
For our report on Norway, we assess in detail how the sharp slide in global oil prices since last summer is likely to
affect the political and economic situation in what is usually considered to be one of the world’s least risky countries.
A substantial decline in offshore oil and gas investment spending over the next few years will have a knock-on impact
along the supplier chain, contributing to increased unemployment in a tight labor market and other adverse effects that
policy makers had been prone to ignore under more favorable oil-price scenarios. As a massive sovereign wealth fund
will ensure that the government has adequate resources to ride out the storm, our report will focus instead on possible
upside risks from the oil price slump, including the possibility that it could create the impetus for a diversification push
that leads to fresh opportunities for foreign investors.
Shifting to Eastern Europe, our coverage is highlighted by a new report on Bulgaria, where Boyko Borisov has been
returned as prime minister after less than two years in opposition, but once again heads a minority government whose
survival depends in part on the backing of a far-right party. The center-right administration has outlined a reform-
focused program aimed at shoring up the economic foundation, improving relations with the EU, and addressing the
sources of chronic instability that have tarnished the country’s reputation among investors. The reports will assess

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Founded in 1979, the PRS Group is among the earliest commercial providers of political and country risk forecasts. Origi-
nally the Political Risk Services division of Frost & Sullivan, Inc. and then of UK-based IBC Group (now known as In-
forma), the firm occupies a niche market in the risk sector through the application of two globally recognized, proprietary,
quant-driven, and back-tested methodologies: Political Risk Services (PRS) and the International Country Risk Guide
(ICRG). A number of products based on these two risk rating systems are produced at regular intervals throughout the year.
The firm and its methodologies for assessing risk are the product of research conducted by Professors William Coplin and
Michael O’Leary of the Maxwell School of Public Affairs at Syracuse University in conjunction with the US Department
of State and the CIA. The overall goal was to develop an intellectually rigorous way of assessing the various components of
country risk that could be applied to a range of institutional settings. In the wake of the Iranian Revolution, where many
foreign firms were nationalized, the importance of the work intensified.
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whether or not the new government stands a better chance than its predecessor of surviving for a full four-year term, and
discuss the implications for the climate for investment and trade in either case.