This paper presents a climate change impact assessment for Senegal. Senegal is a country that I am very passionate about having worked there in the agriculture sector as an agro-forestry specialist. The country faces a number of very serious development problems which are being made worse by climate change. This paper will begin by giving a little bit of background information about Senegal. Then the paper will explore the outlook for Senegal in this century as it relates to climate change by summarizing: the potential physical impacts of climate change, the potential public health and societal impacts of climate change and lastly look at what measures are currently being undertaken as well as measures that may be undertaken in the future to withstand or reduce the impacts of climate change on the environment for Senegal and its people.

1. Senegal: A Climate Change Impact Assessment
By,
John Hennessy
21 March 2015
Module: GGHS40220 Climate Change and Development
Assignment Coordinator: Dr. Connor Buggy
UCD/TCD Masters in Development Practice
TCD: 13302388 UCD: 13206035

2. *The work in this paper is entirely my own and adheres to the UCD
plagiarism policy
Table of contents
Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………............................................1
Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………….........................................1
Background……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….2
Physical Impacts of Climate Change…………………………………………………………..................................2
Public Health and Societal Impacts of Climate Change……………………………………...........................5
Adaptation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..6
References and Recommended Reading……...…………………………………………………………………………..8

3. 1
Introduction
Not long ago the idea of human induced climate change was considered crazy by many. Today
that position is completely illogical. There is a staggering amount of evidence to support the idea that for
the first time in history humans have impacted the biosphere and atmosphere to such an extent that we
are changing the climate on a global scale. There is an obvious trend in the world today. The oceans are
warming, glaciers are disappearing, and the natural world is in serious decline. It could be argued that
climate change and how we deal it with is the biggest issue of our time. Not surprisingly the global
community is increasingly concerned about what climate change will mean. What we do know is that
climate change poses a real and increasing threat. It will impact the world’s economies and its people.
One of the unfortunate realties of climate change is the burden associated with it will not be distributed
evenly across the world. Many of the most severely affected countries are also some of the poorest
counties in the world. The economies of these countries are typically based in agriculture which climate
change will seriously impact. While it is true today some of largest producers of greenhouse gases are in
the developing world the burden of climate change was created by wealthy industrialized countries. It is
my belief that if poor countries are suffering from a problem created by wealthy countries there is a
responsibility associated with inducing climate change on the part of wealthy countries to come up to
with solutions. This concept is referred to as climate justice. To date, the industrialized world has not lived
up to its responsibilities in regard to poor climate change impacted countries but there are beginning to
be some positive collaborations. The effort so far has been largely led by a number of UN agencies but an
increasing number of countries already impacted by climate change are in the process of formulating and
or implementing their own plans for climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Executive Summary
This paper will present a climate change impact assessment for Senegal. Senegal is a country that
I am very passionate about having worked there in the agriculture sector as an agro-forestry specialist.
The country faces a number of very serious development problems which are being made worse by
climate change. This paper will begin by giving a little bit of background information about Senegal. Then
the paper will explore the outlook for Senegal in this century as it relates to climate change by
summarizing: the potential physical impacts of climate change, the potential public health and societal
impacts of climate change and lastly look at what measures are currently being undertaken as well as
measures that may be undertaken in the future to withstand or reduce the impacts of climate change on
the environment for Senegal and its people.

4. 2
Background
Senegal is located in sub-Saharan West Africa on the Atlantic Ocean and is surrounded by Guinea-
Bissau, Guinea, Mali and Mauritania. In 2011 its population was estimated at 13 million with 58% of people
residing in rural areas. Approximately 77% of the workforce within the country is in the agricultural sector
which accounts for 12.4% of Senegal’s GDP (USGS & USAID 2012, p. 1.) Very little agriculture in Senegal is
done on irrigated land. The agriculture is rain-fed which leaves the country’s food security vulnerable to
drought; especially in the north. The food staples of Senegal are: rice, millet, sorghum, corn, and fonio.
However it is important to note that Senegal is a net importer of cereals. This is particularly the case with
rice which is hugely popular within the country. It is only during good years that Senegal can meet its
needs with cereals other than rice. The two main cash crops in Senegal, largely produced for export, are
peanuts and cotton. Recently Senegal’s agricultural production has not kept pace with its population
growth; this a problem that dearly needs to be addressed.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions in the world
to climate change. Within SSA lies the Sahel, an eco-climatic and biogeographic zone, which makes up a
large portion of Senegal. The Sahel is a semi-arid strip that spans the African continent and acts as a
transition zone between the Sahara desert in the north and savannah to the south. There are a number
of factors that threaten the Sahel and Senegal at large: warming temperatures, changing and increasingly
more erratic rainfall patterns (drought and flood risks), deforestation, desertification, infectious diseases,
ecosystem degradation, rapid unplanned expansion of cities, and food and water insecurity (O’Connor &
Ford 2014, 7143.) These factors are all magnified and accelerated by climate change and must be
addressed by Senegal, a country, which is rife with poverty and characterized by an inefficient
government.
Physical Impacts of Climate Change
The physical impacts of climate change will vary greatly within Senegal due to the diversity of
climates found within the country. However the physical impacts of climate change will share some
common characteristics across the country and the repercussions of those impacts will be felt by all
regions of Senegal. For the purposes of this paper I will talk about the physical impacts of climate change
in Senegal by dividing the country into the north, the south and coastal zones. However the reality is a bit
more complex than that.

5. 3
For most of Senegal’s history food
security has been issue. In recent decades the
problem has gotten worse. The north of Senegal
has experienced significant reductions in the
amount of rainfall it receives and rainfall
patterns have become more erratic. The result
has been an increasing number of droughts and
food crises. In the south of Senegal some areas
have seen declines in annual rainfall totals while
others have seen increases in rainfall totals.
However like the north rainfall patterns have
become less predictable and have made crop yields increasingly unreliable. It’s important to understand
that almost all crops (95%) are dependent on rain-
fed agriculture and Senegalese farmers for the
most part rely on very basic technology and often
lack improved seed varieties and fertilizers (Seck et
al 2005, p.74.) Across the board, the literature
argues that without major revision to Senegalese
agricultural policies like its promotion of planting
peanuts, a crop sensitive to temperature increases
and very taxing of the land, and major financial
investment in things like irrigation crop yields will
decrease across the country as a result of climate
change. The north will be the hardest hit. Much of northern Senegal plants crop varieties that are already
at their maximum temperature limits and barely meet their minimum water requirements. In some
months, many of which coincide with growing seasons, parts of Senegal will see increases in daily
maximum and minimum temperatures as large as 2 to 5 degrees Celsius by 2050 (USAID 2014, p. 53.)
Increases in temperatures will have compounding effects on the environment. As temperatures
increase crops and plants will react by increased evapotranspiration. That means that crops and plants
will require more water to survive. The result of that will be more water being drawn out of the ground
which will make the environment drier and lower water tables. The increase in temperature will also
decrease the size of surface sources of water as they are exploited at a higher rate by animals and people
Figure 1: Solar pump irrigation of a women's garden in the north
Figure 2: Tilling a sorghum field in southern Senegal

6. 4
and evaporation increases. In the north of the country this will mean that areas that now cultivate some
crops will likely not be able to in the future. Farmers will be forced to migrate further south. The north of
Senegal also has a long history of cattle herding. The literature states that in many parts of the north due
to increased water scarcity and temperature increases important pasture land for cattle is going to
disappear. This will force nomadic herdsmen to move further south in search of pasture and is likely to
bring southern farmers into conflict with northern herdsmen. This could also lead to ethnic tensions. Loss
of plant life in the north will also speed desertification by making the land more susceptible to water and
wind erosion. In southern Senegal higher temperatures will speed deforestation by killing off trees
sensitive to water and or heat stress and increase the risk of bush fires.
Senegal’s coastline is 700km long
and as a developing country is an asset
Senegal needs to protect. Much of
Senegal’s population lives in cities in
coastal zones. The coastal zones are vitally
important to the economy. Senegal’s ports
are important hubs of trade for itself and a
number of other countries in the region.
The vast majority of materials entering and
leaving Senegal go through its ports.
Senegal also has a long history of exploiting
its fisheries and fishing remains an important feature of its economy. However Senegal’s coastline is under
threat. Coastal erosion is of great concern for the Senegalese government and it is already proving to be
a major problem in both Dakar and St. Louis. Its coast is also threatened by degradation of mangroves,
pollution and saline intrusion into rivers and aquafers. Climate change threatens to make all of these
problems significantly worse. According to one study of vulnerability and adaptive capabilities of
countries to a 1 meter sea level rise Senegal ranked 8th
most at risk in the world (Niang et al 2010, p. 294.)
Besides the potential loss of low lying areas due to sea level rise groundwater in coastal zones is
under threat. Groundwater in coastal zones is a major source of water for humans and agricultural alike.
Saline intrusion poses a threat to the already scarce water supplies to cities like Dakar, St. Louis and Thies
(Niang et al 2010, p.294.) Loss of water sources like the Dakar aquifer will have serious implications for
human, animal and plant life. Sea level rise is likely to damage or destroy many of Senegal’s mangroves
Figure 1: Popenguine on the Senegalese coast

7. 5
and estuaries. Theses habitats are crucial to the health of Senegal’s fisheries and associated industry.
Senegal’s fisheries are also predicted to be negatively impacted by changes to ocean temperature and
acidity (Silver et al 2013, p. 670.)
Public Health and Societal Impacts of Climate Change
Climate change will have a wide range of
consequences for public health and society at large
in Senegal. As mentioned earlier, in the near future,
climate change will have a negative impact on crop
yields. Among the many poor in Senegal this will
greatly impact people’s welfare. Decreases in crop
production will result in greater unpredictability at
local markets. Decreased yields will reduce
Senegal’s ability to meet the food needs of its
population resulting in increases in the number of
malnourished people, in addition to reducing many
people’s incomes and result in price increases of
commodities at markets which will greatly impact
many households. As climate change makes rural
production of crops and prices less reliable many
farmers will search for alternative sources of
income (USAID 2014, p.66.) As few opportunities
other than farming are available in rural areas there will be increased migration to urban areas.
Rapid urbanization of cities in Senegal has already created a large number of social, economic and
environmental problems that will be made worse by climate change induced migration to cities. Climate
change induced impacts are likely to make urban populations, particular the urban poor, much more
vulnerable. In many cities rural to urban migration has resulted in poorly planned, burgeoning informal
settlements and encroachment onto unsuitable land; often prone to potential deadly flood and infectious
disease risks (Silver et al 2013, p.669.) Informal settlements often lack basic services that over taxed cities
are unable to supply such as: electricity, sewage treatment and clean water. In the absence of these
services populations run an increased risk of contracting gastro-intestinal diseases and other vector borne
Figure 2: Harvesting sorghum in Sinthian Kortiba

8. 6
diseases like malaria. These diseases make populations less economically productive, increase child
mortality and negatively impact education systems.
Changes in rainfall patterns and increases in temperature will greatly increase water scarcity in
Senegal. This will impact the livelihoods of a large portion of the Senegalese population. As the Sahara
desert expands its boundaries further south into Senegal many herder people will face hard times. Surface
sources of water will shrink and more people and animals will rely on less abundant sources of water. This
greatly increases the risk of the spread of infectious diseases among both people and animals. In the north
of Senegal many people will be forced to either give up their livelihood and move to cities or in the case
of herdsmen move further south. Herdsmen moving south brings with it a number of other problems.
Herdsmen in the north are a different ethnic group than those residing further south in Senegal. As
Senegal attempts to feed its growing population with less productive fields, due to climate change, more
land area will need to be farmed. Herdsmen arriving from the north are likely to raise tensions with
southern farming ethnic groups over land tenure. In a worst case scenario this situation could turn into
an open conflict.
Lastly I wanted to touch on the ways climate change will negatively affect women in Senegal.
“Rainfall is a big determinant in women’s activities since most their activities to sustain livelihood revolve
around the environment and depend on natural resources. However, since 1996, there has been a 35%
percent decline in rainfall, shortening of the rainy season and making drought season more frequent
(Gueye 2006, p.2)” Women bare a heavy burden in Senegal. They are responsible for raising the children,
preparing meals, collecting firewood (in rural areas), collecting water and they work farmland as well.
Many Senegalese households rely on firewood for fuel. As deforestation get worse many women will be
forced to walk further foraging for wood. Water scarcity will also mean more work for women. Many
women will have to spend even more of their already busy day walking further to collect water which may
be of lower quality than water sources that exist today. Thus not only will women be working harder in
the future but they are likely to expose themselves to more prevalent water-borne diseases and have less
time for studying. Decreases in the health of women will not only negatively impact themselves but have
negative repercussions for their children and their families at large.
Adaptation
The first thing the Senegalese government needs to do on a large scale to adapt to climate change
is revise its agriculture polices and the programs it supports and promotes. “For a long time, Senegal was

9. 7
the world’s leading producer of groundnuts (peanuts)—but massive production of this crop, and this crop
alone, created serious damage to its soil resources (Seck et al 2005, p. 73.)” The Senegalese government’s
promotion of peanut and cotton farming for export has had disastrous impacts for the environment across
Senegal. Both of these crops drain the soil of its fertility resulting in rapidly decreasing yields over time.
Most farmers in Senegal use very basic farming technology and lack the capital to invest in fertilizer. As a
result Senegalese farmers are constantly expanding the land area they are cultivating these two crops on
to make up for decreasing yields. Besides decreasing fertility of the land peanuts in particular like a lot of
sunlight. For a long time the Senegalese government was promoting cutting down trees to plant peanuts.
This had the effect of exposing fields to more wind and water erosion of top soil further decreasing soil
fertility and yields and sped the processes of deforestation and desertification.
The Senegalese government needs to do away with its promotion of monoculture. Senegalese
farmers should diversify the crops they plant. This will improve their food security and reduce the impact
of price shocks on specific varieties of crops. The Senegalese government should support and promote
agro-forestry programs. “Agroforestry provides assets and income from carbon, wood energy, improved
soil fertility and enhancement of local climate conditions; it provides ecosystem services and reduces
human impacts on natural forests (Mbow et al 2014, p. 8.)” Great agro-forestry systems are not an
overnight solution but in the long run have the potential to undue a lot of damage to soil, improve food
security, increase incomes, and improve eco-systems at the local level. The reality is that rainfall patterns
will continue to become more erratic in Senegal and water scarcity is going to become a larger problem.
The Senegalese government needs to invest heavily in sustainable irrigation systems and better drought
and heat resistant seed varieties or it has no chance at food security in the future. Herding practices in
Senegal are largely unsustainable and will have to change. Especially in the north it will become impractical
to have a large number of cows. Herdersmen should invest in more drought resistant animals such as
sheep and goats. In the south as farmland is expanded to feed Senegal’s growing population. More
sedentary species of cows should be used and fed by hand rather than grazing; as pasture will become
increasingly scarce.
To address desertification and deforestation the Senegalese government needs to implement
large scale tree planting and forest protection programs. As well as plant fast growing varieties of trees
on farms for the explicit purpose of firewood. One such program has already begun to be implemented in
the north to fight desertification. The program is known as “The Great Green Wall.” The idea is to stop

10. 8
desertification by planting trees and other vegetation which function as natural barriers to desertification
by reducing wind speed, stabilizing soil and increasing soil humidity (O’Connor & Ford 2014, p. 7145.)
It is unclear how the Senegalese government will be able to solve its many coastline problems.
Senegal will need to invest in large scale infrastructure projects to protect major cities from rising sea
levels and secure its water sources against saline intrusion. However Senegal lacks the capital and
technical expertise to do those types of projects on their own. They will likely be dependent on the
international community for those projects to become a reality. Lastly the Senegalese government needs
to do more to control its rapid urbanization and urban sprawl problem. If cities are allowed to continue
to grow unplanned, as many are, there will be major health, education and economic impacts on residents
of those cities. Especially among the most vulnerable. As this paper makes clear, climate change poses
many serious problems for Senegal’s development but I believe that through good cooperation between
Senegal and the international community Senegal’s problems can be overcome.
References and Recommended Reading
Gueye, Y 2006, ‘Case Study: Gender, Human Security and Climate Change in Senegal’, ENDA, pp. 1-12.
Karambiri et al. 2011, ‘Asseing the impact of climate variability and climate change on runoff in West
Africa: the case of Senegal and Nakambe River basins’, Atmospheric Science Letters, vol. 12, pp. 109-115.
Mbow et al. 2014, ’Achieving mitigation and adaptaionto climate change through sustainable agroforestry
practice in Africa’, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, vol. 6, pp. 8-14.
Mbow et al. 2008, ‘The history of environmental change and adaptation in eastern Saloum—Senegal—
Driving forces and perceptions’, Global and Planetary Change, vol. 64, pp. 210-221.
McDowell, C 2013, ’Climate-Change Adaptation and Mitigation Implications for Land Acquisition and
Population Relocation’, Development Policy Review, vol. 31, pp.677-695.
Niang et al. 2010, ‘Impact of climate change on the Senegalese coastal zones: Examples of the Cape Vert
Peninsula and Saloum estuary’,Global and Planetary Change, pp. 294-301.
O’Connor, D & Ford, J 2014, ’Increasing the Effectiveness of the “Great Green Wall” as an Adapatation to
the Effects of Climate Change in the Sahel’, Sustainability, vol. 6, pp. 7142-7154.
Seck et al. 2005, ‘Case Study 4: Senegal Adaptation and Mitigation Through “Produced Environments”:
The Case for Agriculture Intensification in Senegal’, IDS Bulletin, vol. 36. pp. 71-86.

11. 9
Silver et al. 2013, ’Climate change, urban vulnerability and development in Saint-Louis and Bobo-
Dioulasso: learning from across two West African cities’, Local Environment, vol. 18, pp. 663-677.
USAID 2014, ‘Senegal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Options Analysis’, USAID, pp. 1-99.
USGS & USAID 2012, ‘A Climate Tread Analysis of Senegal’, USGS, pp. 1-4.
*All photos included in this paper were my own