por Dr. Mohamed Ait-Kadi, Presidente del Comité Técnico de GWP. Ponencia Magistral-Foro Seguridad Hídrica y Alimentaria

1. Water Security:
A Key Driver of Global
Food Supplies
Pr. Mohamed Ait Kadi
Chair GWP Technical Committee
San Jose, Costa Rica, August 9, 2012

2. Plan of this talk
1. Will food supply keep up with
growing demand?
2. What are the key levers 0f a
solution?
M. AIT-KADI

3. Since 1992, 80% of countries have embarked on reforms to
improve the enabling environment for water resources
management based on the application of integrated
approaches as stated in Agenda 21 and affirmed in the
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
UN-Water Status Report for Rio+20

4. 21st Century
a Changing & less Predictable World
 Profound changes in price relativities with much local variability
 >$100 oil; all fossil fuels more expensive
 Other non-renewable raw materials – more expensive
 Water - scarcer/costlier many places
 Land – more competition
 A more unpredictable climate
 Future increased dependence on what can be grown – Food, Feed, Fiber
and Fuel (4Fs)
What hasn’t changed ?
 The need to eat ~ 9 billion people by 2050 & changing diets
>> The challenge = TO BALANCE FUTURE FOOD
DEMAND & SUPPLY SUSTAINABLY
M. AIT-KADI

5. Governance Food Security
Gaps
&
Interconnected Global Risks
Biodiversity
Loss Geopolitical
Risks
Globalization
Water
Scarcity Env. Food Economic
Risks Risks Food Price
Security Volatility
Extreme
Weather
F/D/DES
Oil Price
Societal Volatility
Risks
Migration
Chronic
disease
M. AIT KADI

6.  Problems can’t be solved by
countries acting in isolation
800 140
Corn
120
Wheat
600 100
Rice
US$/barrel
US$/ton
Oil (right scale) 80
400
60
200 40
20
0 0
Source: von Braun 2008 with data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.

7. Diverse policy responses to food crisis
Trade Trade Consumer Social Increase
restriction liberaliz. subsidy protection supply
Asia
Bangladesh X X X X
China X X X X
India X X X X X
Indonesia X X X
Malaysia X X X
Thailand X X X
Latin America
Argentina X X X X
Brazil X X X
Mexico X X X
Peru X X X
Venezuela X X X X
Africa
Egypt X X X X
Ethiopia X X X X
Ghana X X
Kenya X
Nigeria X X X
Tanzania X X X
Source: von Braun 2008 with data from IMF, FAO, and news reports, 2007-08.

8. « Land – grabs »

9. Energy
Security
The volatility in food prices
in 2008 should be treated as
Food
a warning sign of what is to
Security
come!
Political
Stability
Riots
Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

10. The age of consequences
Increasing food insecurity
More competition over water resources
Migrations
Difficulties of supplying cities
State failures
Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC International conflicts

11. Plan of this talk
1. Will food supply keep up with
growing demand?
2. What are the key levers of a
solution?
M. AIT-KADI

12. Will Food Supply Keep up With Growing Demand?
Drivers of Demand are Well Increased Risk and Uncertainty
Understood on the Supply Side
• Population Growth • Limits to Land, Water, Soils,
• All in LDCs Biodiversity, Forests, Fisheries
• Income Growth • Slowing Productivity Growth
Mostly in LDCs • Stagnant Investment levels in R & D
• Urbanization: • Energy prices/High input &
Up from 50% to 70% transport costs
• Shift in Food Preferences: • Increased Risks and Uncertainty
Wheat, Maize & from climate change/variability
Soybeans for Feed • Interlinked International Markets
• Biofuels: maize, oilseeds (Globalization, Information &
• Processed Foods Standards, Supermarkets..)
M. AIT-KADI

13. Key Drivers of Global Food Suply
1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land
2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities
3. Declining Agricultural Productivity
4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change
M. AIT-KADI

14. « Thirst for water & Hunger for Land »
Comparing regional long term perspectives
M. AIT-KADI

15. Regional per capita availability of water is
declining
‘000 m3
16
14 Africa
12
10
8 World
6 Asia
4
2
MENA
0
1960 1990 2025

16. Rising Water Use
In The 20th Century,
Population Grew
Three-fold,
But
Water Use Grew Six-
fold!

17. Rivers are Overtaxed

18. Underground water is being
mined at unsustainable rates
and
10% of world grain production
depends on unsustainable
aquifer withdrawals.

20.  Asia will be a major importer (China)
 WANA also;
SSA could feed itself with a low increase of per
capita food ratio;
Latin America will be a major exporter (Brazil,
Argentina) but with important ecological risks
Canada and Russia could benefit from climate
change and increase their export capacity
USA and EU could increase also but in weak
proportions
>>> Food self-sufficiency is not a viable option
M. AIT-KADI

21. Agrimonde Scenario - 2050
% Consumption/Production KCAL
Regions Agrimonde Agrimonde1
2003
MENA - 32% - 63%
SSA - 12% -53%
LA + 11 % + 32%
Asia - 2% - 19%
Ex-USSR -2% +77%
OECD-1990 + 6% + 46%
M. AIT-KADI

22. Key Drivers of Global Food Suply
1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land
2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities
3. Declining Agricultural Productivity
4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change
M. AIT-KADI

23. Changes within the agricultural sector
Increasing land & water inelasticities
M. AIT-KADI

24. Maize production and use for fuel ethanol
USA 1995-2010

25. Key Drivers of Global Food Suply
1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land
2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities
3. Declining Agricultural Productivity
4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change
M. AIT-KADI

26. Decapitalisation of Agriculture
2.5 320
World Bank lending
for irrigation 280
2.0
Irrigated
Area 240
200
1.5
160
1.0
Food price index
120
80
0.5
40
Africa Irrigation
0 0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
M. AIT-KADI

27. Agricultural productivity growth is slowing
Source: World Bank Development Report 2008 (figure refers to developing countries only)
M. AIT-KADI

28. World cereal production: Not growing enough 70%
Million tons Total Million tons
1,200 2,000
900
1,600
600
1,200
300
0 800
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Wheat Coarse grains Rice Total (right)
Source: Data from FAO 2003, 2005-07.
M. AIT-KADI

29. Key Drivers of Global Food Suply
1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land
2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities
3. Declining Agricultural Productivity
4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change
M. AIT-KADI

30. Climate Change = A threat multiplier
Model-Projected Runoff Change (%)
[(2041-2060)-(1900-1970)]
(Milly et al., 2005)

31. Increased Frequency & Intensity of
Floods & Droughts

32. eed to Understand the Complex
elations Between Climate, Land/Water
se, Surface/Subsurface Flows + Feed Complex Climate
ack SUPPLY & DEMAND Relations
Multiple-Aquifer
Stresses
GW/SW
Relations
Multiple-Aquifer
Flow Systems &
Flow Directions
Regional Flow Systems
Modified from Puri & Arnold, 2002

33. Climate change risks
Expected impact on agricultural output potential
(% change1961-90 compared to 2070-90)
Without carbon With carbon
fertilization fertilization
World -15.9 -3.2
Industrial countries -6.3 7.7
Developing
countries -19.7 -7.7
Middle East/
North Africa -21.2 -9.4
Morocco -39.0 -29.9
Source: Cline 2007.

34. Daily per capita calorie availability with
an without climate change
Source: Food Policy Report, IFPRI, September 2009

35. World food price increases and climate change
various scenarios (2010-50)

36. Food Security will Detriorate
in its 4 dimensions
M. AIT-KADI

37. Conclusion:
 Long term (2050) global food abundance is not
totally guaranteed;
 No reason to become Malthusian and prophesy
famines
 But the constraints { reduction of availble lands,
water scarcity,increased risks of natural disasters,
biodiversity loss, social responsiveness} are so
important that we have to consider a potential risk
for temporary food scarcity,
 And a long term increase of food prices!
M. AIT-KADI

38. Plan of this talk
1. Will food supply keep up with
growing demand?
2. What are the key levers of a
solution?
M. AIT-KADI

39. A NEW EQUATION
Produce more food;
With higher yields;
In all kinds of agriculture, mainly poor;
With higher input prices
With climate change (water scarcity, floods,
droughts) and need for adaptation
Being environmental friendly,
But with better prices!!
M. AIT-KADI

41. More food must be produced sustainably
through better water management, the
spread and implementation of existing
knowledge, technology and best practices,
and by investments in new science and
technology and rural and social
infrastructures that enable farmers to
benefit from all of these;
M. Ait-Kadi

42. More Crop Per Drop!

43. • The political and economic
governance of the water and food
systems (at both national and
international levels) must be
improved to increase productivity
and sustainbility
M.Ait-Kadi

44. Policies to help households cope
Eliminate agricultural trade
barriers, incl. stop biofuel
subsidies
M.Ait-Kadi

45. Comment nourrir l’humanité?
Thank you!
This is a unique time in history – decisions made now will
disproportionately influence the future !!! M. AIT-KADI